The voluntary reporting system for wholesale pork prices in the US will end on May 3rd or earlier, leaving only data from the new mandatory reporting system. While the transition has not been perfectly smooth, prices reported in the mandatory system have been higher than expected, incentivizing sellers to move to the new system. Export data for February showed good growth for US beef exports but declines for pork, with Japan still the top market for both but seeing lower volumes and values than the previous year.

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Vol. 11, No. 65 / April 8, 2013
It appears that the voluntary reporting system for whole- had been in contact with. We have seen not mention of the birds’
sale pork prices will soon be gone, leaving only the data generated being sick.
by the new mandatory system. Industry sources say USDA’s Agricul-  There has been no mention of pigs in any of the reports we have
tural Marketing Service is moving to end the voluntary reporting system seen. We can’t say for sure but speculation about this influenza
as of May 3 or even earlier if the volume and quality of data generated and pigs is likely coming from recollections of the 2009 H1N1influ-
by the system declines. That is not necessarily a bad thing, just a fact enza situation and recent stories about thousands of dead pigs
of how these information system changes normally play out. floating down a river in eastern China. We have heard nothing that
USDA had committed to running the voluntary system for as connects the two incidents.
up to six months in an effort to generate overlapping data series to facil-  It appears that the Chinese government is being much more forth-
itate adjusting pricing formulas for items which are based on data gen- coming about this situation than it has been in past disease out-
erated by the old system. Everyone knew the new data would be differ- breaks, most notably SARS. But that isn’t saying much given their
ent but no one knew exactly how or by how much it would differ. Most past record of burying any news that might be embarrassing.
expected the average prices from the mandatory system to be lower
than those from the voluntary system because formula pricing created a Product-weight export data for February were released by
strong incentive to voluntarily report prices on only the highest-priced USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service on Friday and the news was
loads. Well, guess what? It didn’t work out that way. The price for good for beef and, not surprisingly, not so good for pork. A few
most items in the mandatory-system driven reports are higher, creating highlights are:
an incentive on the part of sellers of both pork and hogs to move to the  Total beef exports in February were 58,287 metric tonnes valued at
new system. And there is little doubt that data from the new system is $373 million. Those figures are 3% lower and 5.5% higher, respec-
far more robust since it covers everything that is traded. That is not tively than one year ago and bring the year-to-date changes for
nearly all of the pork cuts that are produced since many (bellies, hams, quantity and value to +0.9% and 9.3%, respectively.
trimmings in particular) at the packer for further processing into cured  Canada was our largest beef market in February, taking nearly
and finished products that are not part of the price reporting system. All 14,000 MT valued at $96 million. Mexico was the second largest
of the new data dating back to January 7 can be downloaded from
market in terms of volume, buying 11,515 MT. Japan was number
AMS’s MPR Data Mart at http://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/. Just look two in value at $56.2 million. Note that large gap between the val-
under “Hogs” and “Daily Pork”. ue of shipments to Canada and Japan.
So, the best laid plans for a smooth and well-informed transi-
tion have not come to complete fruition. But a four month overlap is  Beef variety meat exports grew by 3.5% in quantity and 2.2% in
better than none. Buyers and sellers have been working out new ar- value in February relative to one year ago. Variety meat exports
rangements since the new data began being published in January and lag 2012, year-to-date thru February by 8.4% in quantity and 5.4%
will complete that task, either smoothly or in fits and starts, and com- in value. Egypt was our largest beef variety meat market in terms
merce will continue. Change is often not a pretty process. of both volume and value. Mexico was second on both measures.
We have received a number of calls and e-mail regarding  Total pork exports in February were 132,897 MT valued at $404.2
the “bird flu” situation in China and its implications for U.S. live- million. Those figures are 12.6% and 12.1% lower than in February
stock and poultry. We wish we had all of the answers but probably 2012. YTD exports are down 14% in volume and 12% in value.
have little more than most readers and, we suppose, considerably less  Japan was still our largest pork export customer in terms of value
than some. Pork producers are particular sensitive to this situation giv- ($144 million) and volume (32,519 MT) in February but those fig-
en what happened to them in 2009 when H1N1 influenza was dubbed ures were 13% and 11%, respectively, lower than one year ago.
“swine flu” by the media even though it had little to do with pigs. What Mexico was our second largest market in terms of both value and
we have gathered, primarily from media reports, is this: volume while Canada was third.
 The flu strain is officially H7N9 and is of avian origin. There have  The only markets among the top 10 to show year-on-year growth
been no reports of the virus being found in pigs. for pork exports in February were Canada (+2% in value, +11% in
 All cases have been in China. volume) and Phillipines at +55% in value and +37% in volume,
albeit from a relatively small base.
 There has been no documented transmission of the virus from hu-
man to human at this point. One reports said that Chinese officials  Shipments to Russia in February were down by more than 50% in
are monitoring over 600 people with whom the 23 infected people both volume and value and YTD shipments there thru February are
had come in contact. more than 30% lower — even before their complete closure.
 The Chinese government has destroyed a number of birds —  China/HK and Mexico remain BY FAR our largest pork variety meat
we’ve seen numbers as high as 20,000 — that the infected people markets, taking 85% of the world total in both volume and value.
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Vol. 11, No. 65 / April 8, 2013
PRODUCTION AND PRICE SUMMARY Week Ending 4/6/2013
Current Pct. Pct. Pct.
Item Units Week Last Week Change Last Year Change YTD Change
Total Meat & Poultry Prod. Million lbs. 1630.3 1704.1 -4.33% 1686.4 -3.33% 22,753 0.28%
C FI Slaughter Thou. Head 593 599 -1.00% 621 -4.53% 8,239 -3.20%
A FI Cow Slaughter Thou. Head 126.2 123.9 1.85% 115.8 9.01% 1,478 -0.52%
T Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 1315 1314 0.08% 1289 2.02% 1,323 1.46%
T Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 794 794 0.00% 783 1.40% 798 1.43%
L Beef Production Million Lbs. 469.5 474.2 -0.99% 485.2 -3.24% 6,521 -2.37%
E Live Fed Steer $/cwt live wt. 128.29 127.74 0.40% 121.91 5.23%
Dressed Steer $/cwt carcass 204.47 203.08 0.68% 193.39 5.73%
& OKC Feeder Steer 700-800 Lbs. 142.11 137.26 3.54% 150.86 -5.80%
Beef Cutout 600-750 Choice 191.29 189.82 0.77% 180.79 5.81%
B Hide/Offal $/cwt live wt. 14.23 14.16 0.49% 13.12 8.46%
E Rib Choice 281.91 283.97 -0.73% 271.16 3.96%
E Round Choice 162.86 161.81 0.65% 156.19 4.27%
F Chuck Choice 161.38 161.63 -0.15% 142.85 12.97%
Trimmings, 50% Fresh 92.34 89.55 3.12% 63.00 46.57%
Trimmings, 90% Fresh 218.70 219.49 -0.36% 218.48 0.10%
H FI Slaughter Thou. Head 2088 2184 -4.40% 2124 -1.70% 29,742 -0.92%
O FI Sow Slaughter Thou. Head 58.0 60.5 -4.21% 55.6 4.20% 675 0.90%
G Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 208 208 0.00% 209 -0.48% 208 -0.65%
S Pork Production Million Lbs. 433.3 453.6 -4.48% 443.8 -2.37% 6,170 -1.48%
Iowa-S. Minn. Direct Avg. 78.08 74.81 4.37% 81.56 -4.27%
& Natl. Base Carcass Price Weighted Avg. 77.63 74.73 3.88% 81.16 -4.35%
Natl. Net Carcass Price Weighted Avg. 80.17 77.21 3.83% 83.67 -4.18%
P Pork Cutout 200 Lbs 77.30 77.40 -0.13% 78.73 -1.82%
O Hams Primal Cutout 54.13 54.33 -0.37% 56.81 -4.72%
R Loins Primal Cutout 86.31 86.41 -0.12% 95.47 -9.59%
K Trimmings, 72% Lean Fresh 54.00 49.67 8.72% 48.82 10.61%
Bellies Primal Cutout 130.25 128.69 1.21% 103.16 26.26%
C Young Chicken Slaughter* Million Head 149.71 154.14 -2.88% 149.76 -0.03% 1,967 1.11%
H Avg. Weight Lbs., RTC 4.20 4.36 -3.59% 4.32 -2.76% 4.3 1.52%
I Broiler Production Million Lbs., RTC 629.0 671.8 -6.36% 647.1 -2.79% 8,698 4.01%
C Eggs Set Million 199.6 199.6 0.00% 198.1 0.76% 2,577 1.41%
K Chicks Placed Million Head 163.8 164.7 -0.54% 165.7 -1.15% 2,124 0.69%
E 12-City Broiler Composite 106.51 106.69 -0.20% 84.55 26.00%
N Georgia Dock Broiler 2.5-3 Lbs. 102.3 102.06 0.20% 91.98 11.20%
Northeast Breast Skinlss/Bonelss 152.27 152.49 -0.10% 134.27 13.40%
Northeast Leg Quarters 68.72 68.83 1.60% 75.86 -3.60%
T Young Turkey Slaughter* Million Head 3.99 4.24 -5.83% 4.53 -11.78% 54.6 -1.61%
U Avg. Weight Lbs. 24.66 24.66 0.00% 24.37 1.18% 25.0 0.07%
R Turkey Production Million Lbs. 98.5 104.5 -5.83% 110.3 -10.73% 1,364 -1.55%
K Eastern Region Hen 8-16 Lbs. 97.00 97.50 -0.50% 105.7 -8.20%
F Corn, Omaha $ per Bushel 6.59 7.22 -8.73% 6.67 -1.20%
E DDGS, Minnesota $ per ton 245.00 263.00 -6.84% 204.00 20.10%
E Wheat, Kansas City $ per Bushel 6.99 7.00 -0.14% 6.35 10.08%
D Soybeans, S. Iowa $ per Bushel 14.24 14.42 -1.25% 14.39 -1.10%
SB Meal, 48% Central Illinois $ per Ton 407.10 414.10 -1.69% 385.90 5.50%
* Chicken & turkey slaughter, production and prices are 1 week earlier than the date at the top of this table. Cow & sow slaughter are for 2 weeks earlier