- US meat production was up slightly but remains down year-to-date. Hog and chicken production increased while beef production decreased. - Livestock prices were mixed - feeder cattle up but fed cattle down slightly. Pork prices decreased across the board. - Crop prices fell for corn, wheat, and soybeans on the week ahead of the upcoming USDA stocks report. Analyst estimates for the report were provided.

1. Vol. 10, No. 185 September 25, 2012
A corrected Production and Price Summary table appears were modest when compared to the surge in July. Part of the higher
on page 2 of today’s edition. The table in yesterday’s edition con- sow numbers is, we believe, due to higher imports of cull sows and
tained prices that were one week out of date. We aren’t sure exactly boars from Canada. We say “we believe” because USDA has not re-
how that happened but we will do our best to not let it happen again and leased any livestock import data since September 1 and warns that
we apologize for any confusion that the mistake might have caused. data back to August 18 may be revised. Sow/boar imports jumped in
A story published by farminguk.com quoting Britain’s mid-July. We think higher imports from Canada account for about half
National Pig Association saying a “world shortage of pork and of the increase for the week of September 7. The sow purchase data
bacon next year is now unavoidable” got the attention of a number from mandatory price reporting suggest that the two weeks since Sep-
of U.S. news outlets on Monday. Several of them ran related stories tember 8 have seen LOWER sow slaughter than last year. On the oth-
and a few even called us to discuss the sudden revelation that world er hand, the percentage of gilts in weekly barrow and gilt slaughter in-
pork production will decline in the face of higher feed costs. It’s good to creased sharply in the weeks ended September 7 and 14. The sam-
know that the rest of the world is discovering what DLR readers have pling technique used by the University of Missouri and its cooperating
known for a long time. packers to generate these data can sometimes generate “outlier” obser-
The farminguk.com story does cite significant declines in Euro- vations but having two of the highest weekly figures back to back sug-
pean sow herds over the 12 months that ended in June. The declines gests that producers are indeed retaining fewer gilts.
range from 1.3% in Germany to a staggering 13% in Italy. Sow herds in USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report will also be re-
EU pig industry leaders Denmark, France and Netherlands have de- leased Friday. The results of Bloomberg’s pre-report survey of 29 mar-
clined by 2.3%, 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively, during that 12 months. ket analysts appear in the table below. Note that this report will provide
The story correctly cites high feed costs as the driver but then the official estimate for stocks at the end of the marketing year for corn
goes on to attribute those increases only to low global output of corn and soybeans. USDA had forecast those numbers to be 1.180 billion
and soybeans. There was no mention of the increase in corn-based and 130 million for corn and beans, respectively, in its September World
ethanol output that actually launched the cost increase back in 2007. Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Analysts expect the final
The U.S. swine breeding herd is likely contracting but the number for corn to be slightly lower at 1.145 billion and for the final soy-
rate is apparently slow at the present time. We’ll get a fresh read on bean stocks number to be equal to the USDA forecast.
this situation on Friday when USDA releases its quarterly Hogs and
PRE-REPORT ESTIMATES - GRAIN STOCKS
Pigs Report at 3:00 p.m. EDT. Pre-report estimates will likely be re-
September 28, 2012 Grain Stocks Report
leased by wire services tomorrow or Wednesday. Watch DLR for those
Analysts' Estimates
important figures.
USDA, USDA,
The latest actual sow slaughter data that we have is for the Units Sep 1 '11 June 1, '12 Low High Average
week that ended September 7, Labor Day week. Total U.S. slaughter Corn Bil. Bu. 1.127 3.149 0.887 1.350 1.145
that week was 53,600 head, 6.3% more than last year’s 50,400 head. Soybeans Bil. Bu. 0.215 0.667 0.110 0.152 0.130
This marks the eighth time in nine weeks in which sow slaughter was Wheat Bil. Bu. 2.147 0.743 2.090 2.533 2.272
higher than year-ago levels but the increases of the last two weeks Source: Bloomberg
FI SOW SLAUGHTER, U.S. GILTS AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
Thous. Head BARROW/GILT SLAUGHTER
Percent
80
Avg. '06-'010 53.0
75 2011 2011
52.0
2012
70 2012
51.0 Avg. '02-'11
65
50.0
60 49.0
55 48.0
50 47.0
45 46.0
40 45.0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner. To subscribe/unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com.
Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any
commodities or securities whatsoever. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are
attempted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indication of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a con-
tract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their life-
style. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.
CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX,
New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Copyright © 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved.

2. Vol. 10, No. 175 September 10, 2012
PRODUCTION AND PRICE SUMMARY Week Ending 9/22/2012
Current Pct. Pct. Pct.
Item Units Week Last Week Change Last Year Change YTD Change
Total Meat & Poultry Prod. Million lbs. 1752.8 1689.7 3.73% 1782.0 -1.64% 59,753 -1.19%
C FI Slaughter Thou. Head 623 647 -3.71% 663 -6.03% 22,356 -4.17%
A FI Cow Slaughter Thou. Head 108.6 128.7 -15.59% 121.7 -10.73% 4,291 -4.03%
T Avg. Live Weight Lbs. 1315 1306 0.69% 1281 2.65% 1,298 1.83%
T Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 793 793 0.00% 773 2.59% 787 2.06%
L Beef Production Million Lbs. 493.5 511.9 -3.59% 509.8 -3.20% 17,556 -2.09%
E Live Fed Steer $/cwt live wt. 125.29 125.91 -0.50% 115.83 8.17%
Dressed Steer $/cwt carcass 195.02 195.41 -0.20% 183.11 6.50%
& OKC Feeder Steer 600-700 Lbs. 152.76 148.48 2.88% 137.34 11.22%
Beef Cutout 600-750 Choice 194.11 191.50 1.36% 184.50 5.21%
B Hide/Offal $/cwt live wt. 13.54 13.59 -0.37% 13.51 0.22%
E Rib Choice 293.15 291.11 0.70% 274.39 6.84%
E Round Choice 173.02 171.10 1.12% 166.81 3.72%
F Chuck Choice 165.56 161.10 2.77% 154.31 7.29%
Trimmings, 50% Fresh 54.11 55.42 -2.36% 89.45 -39.51%
Trimmings, 90% Fresh 206.87 213.05 -2.90% 174.72 18.40%
H FI Slaughter Thou. Head 2406 2428 -0.91% 2292 4.99% 74,912 1.78%
O FI Sow Slaughter Thou. Head 53.6 60.9 -12.03% 50.4 6.31% 2,029 -0.61%
G Avg. Dressed Weight Lbs. 202 201 0.50% 203 -0.49% 206 0.41%
S Pork Production Million Lbs. 485.6 488.7 -0.63% 464.8 4.48% 15,437 2.25%
Iowa-S. Minn. Direct Avg. 67.51 63.98 5.50% 89.71 -24.80%
& Natl. Base Carcass Price Weighted Avg. 70.15 70.61 -0.70% 87.22 -19.60%
Natl. Net Carcass Price Weighted Avg. 72.47 72.92 -0.60% 90.09 -19.60%
P Pork Cutout 200 Lbs 77.00 78.05 -1.30% 96.63 -20.30%
O Hams Primal Cutout 65.85 62.91 4.70% 85.74 -23.20%
R Loins Primal Cutout 85.82 86.07 -0.30% 114.54 -25.10%
K Bellies Primal Cutout 106.27 113.68 -6.50% 108.93 -2.40%
C Young Chicken Slaughter* Million Head 154.89 139.20 11.27% 159.52 -2.90% 5,344 -4.21%
H Avg. Weight Lbs., RTC 4.31 4.28 0.87% 4.37 -1.36% 4.3 -0.05%
I Broiler Production Million Lbs., RTC 668.1 595.2 12.24% 697.6 -4.23% 23,009 -3.19%
C Eggs Set Million 0.0 186.3 -100.00% 179.5 -100.00% 7,058 -5.39%
K Chicks Placed Million Head 0.0 159.6 -100.00% 160.8 -100.00% 5,896 -5.12%
E 12-City Broiler Composite 83.24 83.16 0.10% 72.73 14.50%
N Georgia Dock Broiler 2.5-3 Lbs. 94.96 94.74 0.20% 87.14 9.00%
Northeast Breast Skinlss/Bonelss 143.94 148.77 -3.20% 137.18 4.90%
Northeast Let Quarters 51.93 51.48 0.90% 52.77 5.10%
T Young Turkey Slaughter* Million Head 4.48 3.94 13.62% 4.71 -4.88% 153.8 -0.29%
U Avg. Weight Lbs. 23.58 23.81 -0.97% 23.31 1.13% 24.4 2.12%
R Turkey Production Million Lbs. 105.6 93.9 12.51% 109.8 -3.81% 3,751 1.96%
K Eastern Region Hen 8-16 Lbs. 110.00 108.50 1.40% 108.14 1.70%
F Corn, Omaha $ per Bushel 7.36 7.65 -3.79% 6.36 15.72%
E DDGS, Minnesota $ per ton 282.50 282.50 0.00% 192.50 46.75%
E Wheat, Kansas City $ per Bushel 8.78 9.00 -2.44% 6.86 27.99%
D Soybeans, S. Iowa $ per Bushel 16.39 17.75 -7.66% 12.68 29.20%
SB Meal, 48% Central Illinois $ per Ton 499.80 555.90 -10.09% 316.90 57.70%
* Chicken & turkey slaughter, production and prices are 1 week earlier than the date at the top of this table. Cow & sow slaughter are for 2 weeks earlier