Rīgas Tehniskā universitāte
      Enerģētikas un elektrotehnikas fakultāte
Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
               www.videszinatne.lv




 Renewables vs Fossil
       Fuels
                    Dr. Dagnija Blumberga profesor,
               Director of Institute of Energy Systems and
                                               Environment
                        Dr. Andra Blumberga profesor,
                                Riga Technical University
2


Development of Energy Sector in Latvia

   Share of renewable energy resources in 2020
     EU            20%
     Latvia        40%


Is it possible for Latvia ro reach target?




               Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
3

 RES target for Latvia (info: Ministry of Economy
December,2009)




                 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
4
      Primary Energy use. Alternative Scenario
                                Kopējā PER piegāde

                                                                       elektroenerģija
      60000

                                                                       bioetanols un biodīzeļdegviela
      50000
                                                                       citi resursi (salmi,kūdra)

                                                                       naftas produkti un degakmens eļļa
      40000

                                                                       ogles (ietver koksu un nolietotās
                                                                       riepas)
GWh




      30000
                                                                       dabasgāze

                                                                       biogāze
      20000
                                                                       koksne

      10000


          0
          2007   2010   2012     2014       2016      2018      2020


                          Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
5


Development of Latvian energy sector. Alternative 1.

  Investments in
   Natural gas power station
             400 MW + 400 MW + ...
  or
   Coal power station
             400 MW
  or
   Nuclear power station
             ???
                Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
6


Development of Latvian energy sector.Alternative 2

 Investments in
  Energy efficiency improvements
  Development of renewable energy resources:
    Biomass   cogeneration
      120 MWe + 5 cities * 50 MWe
    Wind   energy
      1000 MWe offshore
      500 MWe onshore
    Replacement  of natural gas installations in DH
     and decentralised systems

                Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
7




Some economical calculation




     Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
8


Some Economical Calculations for RES today
 Data from Latvenergo (published B&B 05/05/2010) about
  green energy additional costs
Market price
21 (28) Ls/MWh
Higher tariff than market price of electricity
 70 Ls/MWh -21 (28) Ls/MWh = 49 (42) Ls/MWh
Paid green energy in 2009
 150 000 MWh/year
Total exceeded payment for green energy
 49 (42) Ls/MWh * 150 000 MWh/year = 7,35 (6,36)
  million Ls/year



               Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
9


Some Economical Calculations. Alternative 1

    Costs for RTEC 2 -2 step (with no heat load for
    DH system in Riga). No data available from
    Latvenergo
   Investments costs 35 million Ls/year
    July 2012 fuel costs 55 Ls/MWhe + 85 Ls/MWh
    + x/MWhe = 140 Ls/MWhe + 20 Ls/MWh
   Market price
    21 (28) Ls/MWh
   Higher tariff than market price of electricity
    160 - 21 (28) = 139 (132) Ls/MWh

                Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
10


Comparison of electricity purchase tariffs

   Large natural gas power stations has
    uppermost support in Latvia ~ 160 Ls/MWh
   Larger natural gas power stations 400 MWe has
    higher support than smaler cogeneration
   RES –E from biomass power station has less
    support ~ 100 Ls/MWh than large natural gas
    power station




               Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
11


Some Economical Calculations. Alternative 1

   Import increases: Natural gas use costs
       RTEC 2 -1step 18 000 000 – 144 000 000 Ls/year
       RTEC 2 -2step 22 000 000 – 176 000 000 Ls/year
    Greenhouse gases increase
     RTEC 2 -1step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year
     RTEC 2 -2step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year

In 20 years Latvia will pay for import of natural gas
  for 2 RTEC -2
                      6 - 8 bilion Ls
                 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
Ls / MWh




                                                                                   10
                                                                                        15
                                                                                             20
                                                                                                  25
                                                                                                       30
                                                                                                            35
                                                                                                                 40
                                                                                                                      45
                                                                                                                           50
                                                                                                                                55
                                                                                                                                     60
                                                  "Ludzas Bio-Enerģija"/"Ludzas
                                                         Apsaimiekotājs"
                                                          Talsi -"Bio - Enerģija"

                                                                           Valka

                                                             "Madonas Siltums"

                                                          "Kuldīgas Siltumtīkli"

                                                             "Tukuma Siltums"

                                                            Alūksne - "Simone"

                                                                       Ventspils

                                                             "Limbažu Siltums"

                                                               "Krāslavas Nami"

                                                            "Valmieras Siltums"

                                                                    "Pļaviņu KP
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Heat energy tariffs




                                                           "Komforts", Tukums

                                                       "Vangažu Namsaimnieks"

                                                          "Aizkraukles Siltums"

                                                           Ogres PA "Mālkalne"

                                                                Bauskas siltums

                                                                 "Rīgas Siltums"

                                                          "Wesemann - Sigulda"

                                                            "Lielvārdes Remte"

                                                             "Jēkabpils Siltums"


Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
                                                               Cēsis, SIA "CB"

                                                        "Daugavpils Siltumtīkli"

                                                               "Saldus Siltums"
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Apstiprinātie Latvijas pilsētu siltumtarifi 2008./2009. apkures sezonā, bez PVN
                                                                                                                                          Sarkans - koģenerācija, zaļš - šķelda, pārējie - pamatā dabasgāze vai cits kurināmais




                                                                       Rēzekne

                                                               "Fortum Jelgava"

                                                             "Jūrmalas Siltums"

                                                                         Olaine

                                                              "Salaspils Siltums"

                                                             "Liepājas Enerģija"
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          12
13


Some Economical Calculations. Alternative 2

   Biomass use
     New   jobs       100 000 jobs/year
     Local fuel       10 Ls/MWh (natural gas 35 Ls/MWh)
     Development of local technologies - taxes 10 – 100
      million Ls
     Less tariffs for energy

   Wind energy use
   Solar Energy



                 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
14




What is going on with RES in Latvija


From system dynamic analysis it is easy to explain




              Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
15




      delay                                                          delay2
                                 DEPENDANCE




ALCOHOL       short term                                 long term
                                   STRESS                                 SPORTS
               solution                                   solution




                   Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
16




        delay                                                             delay2
                                  DEPENDANCE




NATURAL GAS     short term          ENERGY                long term          RENEWABLE
                 solution      CONSUMPTION                solution         ENERGY SOURCES




                        Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
17




        delay                                                             delay2
                                   DEPENDANCE




NATURAL GAS     short term           ENERGY                long term         RENEWABLE
                 solution       CONSUMPTION                 solution       ENERGY SOURCES




                                 misinformation




                        Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
18




                                         Enerģijas patēriņš


                                                  Dabas gāze




                                          Atjaunojamie energoresursi



                                                       laiks
Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
19


EU target possible is to reach if

   to change state energy policy
   to increase energy efficiency
   to increase share of
     biomass in electricity and heat energy production
     wind energy production

   to support only efficient renewable energy
    resources (no support for fossil fuel)
    to start solar energy use
   To renew small scale hydropower stations

                 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
20


Changes in legislation

   Changes in state support for fossil electricity:
     No  payment for installed capacity for fossil fuel power
      stations
     To avoid low efficiency operation of power stations
      including in tariffs
   Changes in regulation of tariffs: bussiness
    approach
   Sustainable energy development - energy plans
    of municipalities
   .....

                  Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
21

Influence of RES Policy (info: Ministry of Economy
December,2009)




                 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
22


More information

   RTU Institute of Energy Systems and
    Environment
   Kronvalda bulvaris 1
   LV-1010, Riga, Latvia
   Tel.: +371 – 67089 - 908
   Fax: +371 – 67089 - 908
   E-Mail: info@videszinatne.lv
   Web: www.videszinatne.lv


              Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts

Dagnija blumberga presentation

  • 1.
    Rīgas Tehniskā universitāte Enerģētikas un elektrotehnikas fakultāte Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts www.videszinatne.lv Renewables vs Fossil Fuels Dr. Dagnija Blumberga profesor, Director of Institute of Energy Systems and Environment Dr. Andra Blumberga profesor, Riga Technical University
  • 2.
    2 Development of EnergySector in Latvia  Share of renewable energy resources in 2020  EU 20%  Latvia 40% Is it possible for Latvia ro reach target? Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 3.
    3 RES targetfor Latvia (info: Ministry of Economy December,2009) Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 4.
    4 Primary Energy use. Alternative Scenario Kopējā PER piegāde elektroenerģija 60000 bioetanols un biodīzeļdegviela 50000 citi resursi (salmi,kūdra) naftas produkti un degakmens eļļa 40000 ogles (ietver koksu un nolietotās riepas) GWh 30000 dabasgāze biogāze 20000 koksne 10000 0 2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 5.
    5 Development of Latvianenergy sector. Alternative 1. Investments in  Natural gas power station 400 MW + 400 MW + ... or  Coal power station 400 MW or  Nuclear power station ??? Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 6.
    6 Development of Latvianenergy sector.Alternative 2 Investments in  Energy efficiency improvements  Development of renewable energy resources:  Biomass cogeneration 120 MWe + 5 cities * 50 MWe  Wind energy 1000 MWe offshore 500 MWe onshore  Replacement of natural gas installations in DH and decentralised systems Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 7.
    7 Some economical calculation Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 8.
    8 Some Economical Calculationsfor RES today  Data from Latvenergo (published B&B 05/05/2010) about green energy additional costs Market price 21 (28) Ls/MWh Higher tariff than market price of electricity  70 Ls/MWh -21 (28) Ls/MWh = 49 (42) Ls/MWh Paid green energy in 2009  150 000 MWh/year Total exceeded payment for green energy  49 (42) Ls/MWh * 150 000 MWh/year = 7,35 (6,36) million Ls/year Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 9.
    9 Some Economical Calculations.Alternative 1  Costs for RTEC 2 -2 step (with no heat load for DH system in Riga). No data available from Latvenergo  Investments costs 35 million Ls/year July 2012 fuel costs 55 Ls/MWhe + 85 Ls/MWh + x/MWhe = 140 Ls/MWhe + 20 Ls/MWh  Market price 21 (28) Ls/MWh  Higher tariff than market price of electricity 160 - 21 (28) = 139 (132) Ls/MWh Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 10.
    10 Comparison of electricitypurchase tariffs  Large natural gas power stations has uppermost support in Latvia ~ 160 Ls/MWh  Larger natural gas power stations 400 MWe has higher support than smaler cogeneration  RES –E from biomass power station has less support ~ 100 Ls/MWh than large natural gas power station Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 11.
    11 Some Economical Calculations.Alternative 1  Import increases: Natural gas use costs  RTEC 2 -1step 18 000 000 – 144 000 000 Ls/year  RTEC 2 -2step 22 000 000 – 176 000 000 Ls/year  Greenhouse gases increase  RTEC 2 -1step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year  RTEC 2 -2step 1,6 million – 12,8 milion t CO2/year In 20 years Latvia will pay for import of natural gas for 2 RTEC -2 6 - 8 bilion Ls Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 12.
    Ls / MWh 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 "Ludzas Bio-Enerģija"/"Ludzas Apsaimiekotājs" Talsi -"Bio - Enerģija" Valka "Madonas Siltums" "Kuldīgas Siltumtīkli" "Tukuma Siltums" Alūksne - "Simone" Ventspils "Limbažu Siltums" "Krāslavas Nami" "Valmieras Siltums" "Pļaviņu KP Heat energy tariffs "Komforts", Tukums "Vangažu Namsaimnieks" "Aizkraukles Siltums" Ogres PA "Mālkalne" Bauskas siltums "Rīgas Siltums" "Wesemann - Sigulda" "Lielvārdes Remte" "Jēkabpils Siltums" Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts Cēsis, SIA "CB" "Daugavpils Siltumtīkli" "Saldus Siltums" Apstiprinātie Latvijas pilsētu siltumtarifi 2008./2009. apkures sezonā, bez PVN Sarkans - koģenerācija, zaļš - šķelda, pārējie - pamatā dabasgāze vai cits kurināmais Rēzekne "Fortum Jelgava" "Jūrmalas Siltums" Olaine "Salaspils Siltums" "Liepājas Enerģija" 12
  • 13.
    13 Some Economical Calculations.Alternative 2  Biomass use  New jobs 100 000 jobs/year  Local fuel 10 Ls/MWh (natural gas 35 Ls/MWh)  Development of local technologies - taxes 10 – 100 million Ls  Less tariffs for energy  Wind energy use  Solar Energy Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 14.
    14 What is goingon with RES in Latvija From system dynamic analysis it is easy to explain Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 15.
    15 delay delay2 DEPENDANCE ALCOHOL short term long term STRESS SPORTS solution solution Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 16.
    16 delay delay2 DEPENDANCE NATURAL GAS short term ENERGY long term RENEWABLE solution CONSUMPTION solution ENERGY SOURCES Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 17.
    17 delay delay2 DEPENDANCE NATURAL GAS short term ENERGY long term RENEWABLE solution CONSUMPTION solution ENERGY SOURCES misinformation Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 18.
    18 Enerģijas patēriņš Dabas gāze Atjaunojamie energoresursi laiks Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 19.
    19 EU target possibleis to reach if  to change state energy policy  to increase energy efficiency  to increase share of  biomass in electricity and heat energy production  wind energy production  to support only efficient renewable energy resources (no support for fossil fuel)  to start solar energy use  To renew small scale hydropower stations Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 20.
    20 Changes in legislation  Changes in state support for fossil electricity:  No payment for installed capacity for fossil fuel power stations  To avoid low efficiency operation of power stations including in tariffs  Changes in regulation of tariffs: bussiness approach  Sustainable energy development - energy plans of municipalities  ..... Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 21.
    21 Influence of RESPolicy (info: Ministry of Economy December,2009) Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts
  • 22.
    22 More information  RTU Institute of Energy Systems and Environment  Kronvalda bulvaris 1  LV-1010, Riga, Latvia  Tel.: +371 – 67089 - 908  Fax: +371 – 67089 - 908  E-Mail: info@videszinatne.lv  Web: www.videszinatne.lv Vides aizsardzības un siltuma sistēmu institūts