Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Krumov Todorov holds several degrees related to finance and economics. He currently works as a Chief Assistant Professor of Finance at the South-West University "Neofit Rilski" in Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria where he teaches various courses. His research focuses on macroeconomics, European economic integration, and convergence between EU member states and the euro area. He has published extensively in Bulgarian and international journals and participated in several research projects.
The main purpose of the research was to argue if the foreign exchange risk is an asset pricing factor. Considering that the volatility of the foreign exchange is a major influencing factor of the macro environment changes -while macro environment has proven to affect stock prices-, I have chosen to examine directly the effect of foreign exchange fluctuations on stock returns by using a Fama and French five factor model.
The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population.
Authored by: Soheir Aboulenein, Heba El Laithy, Omneia Helmy, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Liudmyla Kotusenko, Maryla Maliszewska, Dina Mandour, Wojciech Paczynski
Published in 2010
The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for the analysis of implications of various trade policy options for Albania. We study the impact of implementation of the Stablization and Association Agreement, free trade agreements with South-East European neighbors and reduction of the MFN tariffs. We employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows for evaluation of the likely impact of trade agreements on trade, output, factor rewards, tariff revenue and welfare. Our simulations indicate that Albania has a lot to gain from further integration with its neighbors and the EU. However, the benefits from regional integration can only be realized as long as Albania gains better access for its exports on regional markets. Liberalization of trade with all trading partners allows for a permanent increase of Albanian GDP by 1% on a recurring annual basis and an increase of wages by 3.4% relative to their 2000 level.
Authored by: Anna Kolesnichenko, Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
The main purpose of the research was to argue if the foreign exchange risk is an asset pricing factor. Considering that the volatility of the foreign exchange is a major influencing factor of the macro environment changes -while macro environment has proven to affect stock prices-, I have chosen to examine directly the effect of foreign exchange fluctuations on stock returns by using a Fama and French five factor model.
The global food price shock of 2006-2008 has particularly affected poorer strata of populations in several developing countries. In Egypt and some other countries it has put food subsidy schemes to the test. This paper develops two comparable computable general equilibrium models for Egypt and Ukraine which are used to simulate direct and indirect impacts of the food price surge and various policy options on the performance of the main macroeconomic indicators as well as on poverty outcomes. The results illustrate the limited ability of realistic policy responses to mitigate negative social consequences of an external price shock. Food import tariff cuts are a partial remedy faring better than other analysed options. Furthermore, the Egyptian system of food subsidies needs substantial reforms limiting the related fiscal burden and improving the targeting of the poor population.
Authored by: Soheir Aboulenein, Heba El Laithy, Omneia Helmy, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Liudmyla Kotusenko, Maryla Maliszewska, Dina Mandour, Wojciech Paczynski
Published in 2010
The aim of this paper is to provide a framework for the analysis of implications of various trade policy options for Albania. We study the impact of implementation of the Stablization and Association Agreement, free trade agreements with South-East European neighbors and reduction of the MFN tariffs. We employ a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which allows for evaluation of the likely impact of trade agreements on trade, output, factor rewards, tariff revenue and welfare. Our simulations indicate that Albania has a lot to gain from further integration with its neighbors and the EU. However, the benefits from regional integration can only be realized as long as Albania gains better access for its exports on regional markets. Liberalization of trade with all trading partners allows for a permanent increase of Albanian GDP by 1% on a recurring annual basis and an increase of wages by 3.4% relative to their 2000 level.
Authored by: Anna Kolesnichenko, Maryla Maliszewska
Published in 2004
This paper seeks the main factors behind inflation in Russia over the period 1996–2001. It presents a succinct description of Russian monetary policy and inflation developments. The econometric analysis establishes a long-run relationship between demand for the real money balances on the one side and the real income and short-term interest rate on the other side. It also presents several specifications of modeling shortrun dynamics of inflation. An account is made for the change in the exchange rate regime after the financial crisis of August 1998. It finds that apart from strong inertia, money expansion and exchange rate depreciation played a role in fueling the CPI. However, there were significant shifts in the underlying trends driving inflation during the studied period.
Until 1999 fiscal policy posed the biggest obstacle to the disinflation process in Russia. In 2000–2001 the main responsibility for sustained inflation pressure can be attributed to monetary policy trying to target money supply and exchange rate at the same time. The way out from this policy trap leads through the adoption of one of the so-called 'corner' solutions, i.e. either a permanently fixed exchange rate, or independent monetary policy under a free float regime. Taking into consideration a historically limited credibility of macroeconomic policy and the high level of dollarization, the first variant seems to be a better solution for Russia. However, its implementation would require the accompanying fiscal, banking and other structural reforms creating a healthy policy-mix and flexible microeconomic environment.
Authored by: Marek Dabrowski, Wojciech Paczynski, Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2002
Russia's Lost Decade? Challenges to Growth, Recipes for AccelerationAndrey Shapenko
The Russian economy today is going through a critical stage. The growth model, which catapulted the country into the world’s top ten economies’ list has been exhausted and most experts believe that Russia is facing a long period of low or no growth. While the world is moving forward, Russia’s standing still. Hovering anxiously in one place means its economy is becoming smaller and is further increasing its competitive gap.
The ailing economy is often blamed on the falling oil prices combined with the economic sanctions that were imposed on Russia in 2014. However, the array of challenges that the economy is facing today is much broader than that, and the recession in Russia has deeper roots.
This report represents an attempt to discuss those roots and to summarize economic agenda that the country's leadership will face on the way to restart growth, amid the 2018 presidential elections. This agenda will define economic and fiscal policy over the next 5-10 years, and thus will impact anyone who is doing business or going to invest in the country.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.
Authored by: Mariusz Jarmuzek, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2004
Jack Rasmus summarizes, in his article Global Economy: Towards the big storm?, saying to be three global significant global economic trends that began to intensify and to converge in recent months: (1) China's economy slowing along with increased financial instability in its shadow banking system; (2) a collapse of the currencies of emerging markets (India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia etc.) and their respective economic downturns; (3) a continuous shift towards deflation in the economies of the euro area, driven by an increase problems in Italy and the economic stagnation that reaches to France, the second largest economy in the euro zone.
This study reviews monetary policy options that are seemingly viable for adopting the euro by the new Member States of the European Union. A fully autonomous direct inflation targeting is believed to be suboptimal for convergence to the euro as it does not incorporate convergence parameters into the central bank reaction function and instrument rules. In an attempt to correct for such deficiency, this study advocates adopting a framework of relative inflation forecast targeting where a differential between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts becomes the main objective of the central bank's decisions.
At the same time, some attention to the exchange rate stability objective becomes necessary for facilitating the monetary convergence process. Foreign exchange market interventions, rather than interest rate adjustments, are viewed as a preferred way of achieving this objective.
Authored by: Lucjan T. Orlowski
Published in 2005
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
Russia’s dependence on oil and other natural resources is well known, but what does it actually mean for policy makers’ ability to control the economic fate of the country? This brief provides a more precise analysis of the depth of Russia’s oil dependence. This is based on a careful statistical analysis of the immediate correlation between international oil prices — that Russia does not control — and Russian GDP, which policy makers would like to control. I then look at how IMF’s forecast errors in oil prices spillover to forecast errors of Russian GDP. These numerical exercises are striking; over the last 25 years oil price changes explain on average two thirds of the variation in Russian GDP growth and in the last 15 years up to 80 percent of the one-year ahead forecast errors. Instead of controlling the economic fate of the country, the best policy makers can hope for is to dampen the short-run impact of oil price shocks. A flexible exchange rate and fiscal reserves are key volatility dampers, but not sufficient to protect long-term growth. The latter will always require serious structural reforms and the question is what needs to happen for policy makers to take action to get control over the long-term fate of the economy.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Natalya Volchkova, Policy Director of CEFIR, presented a topic "Oil price fluctuations and international trade".
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
In this paper we analyze the evolution of Brazilian inflation under the inflation targeting
system from a cost-push perspective. We identify the main features of three quite distinct
phases (1999-2003, 2004-2009 and 2010-2014) and explain them in terms of tradable
price trends in local currency, changes in the dynamics of monitored prices and behavior
of wage inflation. We conclude that the trend towards continuous nominal exchange rate
devaluation after mid-2011, together with the strengthening of the bargaining power of
workers and the trend of rising real wages since 2006, means that distributive conflicts in
Brazil are getting much more intense. We also suggest that the apparently very irrational
recent (early 2015) change in the orientation of economic policy towards contractionary
fiscal, incomes and monetary policies in a stagnating economy seems to be ultimately
based on the desire to weaken the bargaining power of workers that was much
strengthened during the brief but intense Brazilian “golden age” of 2004-2010.
Tourism is an activity that can improve main macroeconomic indicators. The opportunities for sustainable tourism development and the preservation of its competitiveness is largely influenced by the quality of the environment and the preservation of goods and resources. The paper will examine the impact of the number of international arrivals and receipts from international tourism on the GDP per capita for 2009-2015 and its impact on unemployment and the human development index as the selected component of sustainable development. Based on the relationship between these values, the basic relations between the selected indicators will be identified. The results will include all aspects, establish priorities, concrete proposals - strategic projects that can be realized in the coming period in order to increase the number of tourists and tourism revenues, which would affect the economic growth and development of the Republic of Serbia.
We conclude this series on Marriage and Family, with a short exhortation on relating to adult children as friends and on enjoying the rest of the journey as husband and wife. This complete series in PDF, MP3 and Video is available at apcwo.org/marriageAndfamily
For sermon audio, notes, slides, archives and other free resources like books, please visit our website - apcwo.org
#APCBangalore
This paper seeks the main factors behind inflation in Russia over the period 1996–2001. It presents a succinct description of Russian monetary policy and inflation developments. The econometric analysis establishes a long-run relationship between demand for the real money balances on the one side and the real income and short-term interest rate on the other side. It also presents several specifications of modeling shortrun dynamics of inflation. An account is made for the change in the exchange rate regime after the financial crisis of August 1998. It finds that apart from strong inertia, money expansion and exchange rate depreciation played a role in fueling the CPI. However, there were significant shifts in the underlying trends driving inflation during the studied period.
Until 1999 fiscal policy posed the biggest obstacle to the disinflation process in Russia. In 2000–2001 the main responsibility for sustained inflation pressure can be attributed to monetary policy trying to target money supply and exchange rate at the same time. The way out from this policy trap leads through the adoption of one of the so-called 'corner' solutions, i.e. either a permanently fixed exchange rate, or independent monetary policy under a free float regime. Taking into consideration a historically limited credibility of macroeconomic policy and the high level of dollarization, the first variant seems to be a better solution for Russia. However, its implementation would require the accompanying fiscal, banking and other structural reforms creating a healthy policy-mix and flexible microeconomic environment.
Authored by: Marek Dabrowski, Wojciech Paczynski, Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2002
Russia's Lost Decade? Challenges to Growth, Recipes for AccelerationAndrey Shapenko
The Russian economy today is going through a critical stage. The growth model, which catapulted the country into the world’s top ten economies’ list has been exhausted and most experts believe that Russia is facing a long period of low or no growth. While the world is moving forward, Russia’s standing still. Hovering anxiously in one place means its economy is becoming smaller and is further increasing its competitive gap.
The ailing economy is often blamed on the falling oil prices combined with the economic sanctions that were imposed on Russia in 2014. However, the array of challenges that the economy is facing today is much broader than that, and the recession in Russia has deeper roots.
This report represents an attempt to discuss those roots and to summarize economic agenda that the country's leadership will face on the way to restart growth, amid the 2018 presidential elections. This agenda will define economic and fiscal policy over the next 5-10 years, and thus will impact anyone who is doing business or going to invest in the country.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Torbjörn Becker, Director of SITE, gave a talk "The volatility of oil price forecasts and its macroeconomic implications"
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
This paper quantifies transparency of monetary policy in the three EU New Member States that have adopted direct inflation targeting strategy. Two measures of transparency are applied. The institutional measure reflects the extent to which a central bank discloses information that is related to the policymaking process. The behavioural measure reflects the clarity among the financial market participants about the true course of monetary policy. The paper shows an ambiguous association between the two measures of transparency, which may be attributed to the active exchange rate management policy that undermines the actual transparency proxied by the behavioural measure.
Authored by: Mariusz Jarmuzek, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Artur Radziwill
Published in 2004
Jack Rasmus summarizes, in his article Global Economy: Towards the big storm?, saying to be three global significant global economic trends that began to intensify and to converge in recent months: (1) China's economy slowing along with increased financial instability in its shadow banking system; (2) a collapse of the currencies of emerging markets (India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia etc.) and their respective economic downturns; (3) a continuous shift towards deflation in the economies of the euro area, driven by an increase problems in Italy and the economic stagnation that reaches to France, the second largest economy in the euro zone.
This study reviews monetary policy options that are seemingly viable for adopting the euro by the new Member States of the European Union. A fully autonomous direct inflation targeting is believed to be suboptimal for convergence to the euro as it does not incorporate convergence parameters into the central bank reaction function and instrument rules. In an attempt to correct for such deficiency, this study advocates adopting a framework of relative inflation forecast targeting where a differential between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts becomes the main objective of the central bank's decisions.
At the same time, some attention to the exchange rate stability objective becomes necessary for facilitating the monetary convergence process. Foreign exchange market interventions, rather than interest rate adjustments, are viewed as a preferred way of achieving this objective.
Authored by: Lucjan T. Orlowski
Published in 2005
This paper looks in detail at the sharp slowdown in the Brazilian economy for the years 2011-2014,in which economic growth averaged only 2.1 percent annually,as compared with 4.4 percent in the 2004-2010 period. The latter level of growth was also more than double Brazil’s average annual growth rate over the prior 23 years (although it was much lower than the pre-1980 period). It is important to understand why the higher rate of growth experienced from 2004 to 2010 was not
sustained over the past few years.
The authors argue that the slowdown is overwhelmingly the result of a sharp decline in domestic
demand, rather than a fall in exports and even less any change in external financial conditions. The sharp fall in domestic demand, in turn, is shown to be a result of deliberate policy decisions made by the government. This decision to slow the economy was not necessary, i.e., it was not made in response to some external constraint such as a balance-of-payments problem.
Russia’s dependence on oil and other natural resources is well known, but what does it actually mean for policy makers’ ability to control the economic fate of the country? This brief provides a more precise analysis of the depth of Russia’s oil dependence. This is based on a careful statistical analysis of the immediate correlation between international oil prices — that Russia does not control — and Russian GDP, which policy makers would like to control. I then look at how IMF’s forecast errors in oil prices spillover to forecast errors of Russian GDP. These numerical exercises are striking; over the last 25 years oil price changes explain on average two thirds of the variation in Russian GDP growth and in the last 15 years up to 80 percent of the one-year ahead forecast errors. Instead of controlling the economic fate of the country, the best policy makers can hope for is to dampen the short-run impact of oil price shocks. A flexible exchange rate and fiscal reserves are key volatility dampers, but not sufficient to protect long-term growth. The latter will always require serious structural reforms and the question is what needs to happen for policy makers to take action to get control over the long-term fate of the economy.
This year's SITE Energy Day was devoted to discussing the consequences of oil price fluctuations for markets and actors of the economy. The half-day conference engaged policy-oriented scholars and experts from the business community to discuss the impact of oil price fluctuations on macro fundamentals, international trade, strategies of oil cartels, strategic risk management, and opportunities for change in energy systems.
Natalya Volchkova, Policy Director of CEFIR, presented a topic "Oil price fluctuations and international trade".
For more information and research analysis please visit: www.hhs.se/site
In this paper we analyze the evolution of Brazilian inflation under the inflation targeting
system from a cost-push perspective. We identify the main features of three quite distinct
phases (1999-2003, 2004-2009 and 2010-2014) and explain them in terms of tradable
price trends in local currency, changes in the dynamics of monitored prices and behavior
of wage inflation. We conclude that the trend towards continuous nominal exchange rate
devaluation after mid-2011, together with the strengthening of the bargaining power of
workers and the trend of rising real wages since 2006, means that distributive conflicts in
Brazil are getting much more intense. We also suggest that the apparently very irrational
recent (early 2015) change in the orientation of economic policy towards contractionary
fiscal, incomes and monetary policies in a stagnating economy seems to be ultimately
based on the desire to weaken the bargaining power of workers that was much
strengthened during the brief but intense Brazilian “golden age” of 2004-2010.
Tourism is an activity that can improve main macroeconomic indicators. The opportunities for sustainable tourism development and the preservation of its competitiveness is largely influenced by the quality of the environment and the preservation of goods and resources. The paper will examine the impact of the number of international arrivals and receipts from international tourism on the GDP per capita for 2009-2015 and its impact on unemployment and the human development index as the selected component of sustainable development. Based on the relationship between these values, the basic relations between the selected indicators will be identified. The results will include all aspects, establish priorities, concrete proposals - strategic projects that can be realized in the coming period in order to increase the number of tourists and tourism revenues, which would affect the economic growth and development of the Republic of Serbia.
We conclude this series on Marriage and Family, with a short exhortation on relating to adult children as friends and on enjoying the rest of the journey as husband and wife. This complete series in PDF, MP3 and Video is available at apcwo.org/marriageAndfamily
For sermon audio, notes, slides, archives and other free resources like books, please visit our website - apcwo.org
#APCBangalore
Details of HAQ: Centre for Child Rights's Annual Report Years 2005 - 2006.
HAQ: Center for Child Rights
B1/2, Ground Floor,
Malviya Nagar
New Delhi - 110017
Tel: +91-26677412,26673599
Fax: +91-26674688
Website: www.haqcrc.org
FaceBook Page: https://www.facebook.com/HaqCentreForChildRights
The paper shows that the question that is relevant for the debate on the efficacy of development assistance is not so much as an issue of how much, but rather for what. In view of the growing awareness of ODA’s inefficiency in achieving intended aims, this paper proposes an alternative approach to development assistance policies – economic integration and subsidiarity provides the conditions necessary for ODA to produce higher rates of economic growth on a sustainable basis. Europe is an excellent case in point, in this context. Europe has in the last decades experienced a number of success stories in moving out of poverty and onto sustainable economic growth. The secret of success has been the push towards economic integration, and the adoption of economic reforms at the local, national, and regional level conducive to economic growth. The recipient countries of development assistance have much to learn from the European experience.
The report reviews key issues in energy trade and cooperation between the EU and CIS countries. It describes historical trends of oil and gas demand in the EU, other European and CIS countries and offers demand forecasts until 2030. Recent developments in oil and gas production and exports from Russia and Caspian countries are covered in detail leading to the discussion of the likely export potential of these regions. The key factors determining the production outlook, trade-offs and competition related to energy resources transportation choices are also discussed. The report also covers the interests and role of transit countries in relations between producer and consumer regions. The analytical section leads to policy recommendations that focus mainly on the EU.
Authored by: Sabit Bagirov, Leonid Grigoriev, Wojciech Paczynski, Vladimer Papava, Marcel Salikhov, Michael Tokmazishvili
Published in 2009
Twenty years of euro history confirms the euro’s stability and position as the second global currency. It also enjoys the support of majority of the euro area population and is seen as a good thing for the European Union. The European Central Bank has been successful in keeping inflation at a low level. However, the European debt and financial crisis in the 2010s created a need for deep institutional reform and this task remains unfinished.
Africa will enhance economic growth when ( not if) they embrace Economic Transformation. Trade matters. Aid is past tense. Poor leadership. Elly Twineyo Kamugisha; Author: WHY AFRICA FAILS
This paper studies costs and benefits of institutional harmonisation in the context of EU relations with its neighbors. The purpose of this paper is to outline the likely forms of institutional harmonisation between the EU and its Eastern neighbors and provide an
overview of the methodologies that can be used in measuring its effects (costs and benefits). This paper serves as a background for two measurement exercises – one on benefits and another on costs – that are to be undertaken during the second stage of research.
Authored by: Veliko Dimitrov, Vladimir Dubrovskiy, Anna Kolesnichenko, Irina Orlova
Published in 2007
On August 31 and September 1, 2015 the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and the aswede network will host an academic conference at the Stockholm School of Economics to bring together researchers across all fields of economics contributing to the debate about corruption, its effects, and the optimal tools to fight it. The focus is on low and middle-income countries and the role of legal institutions, with one section in particular focusing on the experience of the transition countries in the CIS and CEE regions.
The The purpose of this paper is to analyze the various challenges facing European integration and the EU institutional architecture as result of the global financial crisis. The European integration process is not yet complete, both in terms of its content and geographical coverage. It can be viewed as a kind of intermediate hybrid between an international organization and a federation, subject to further evolution. This is also true of the Single European Market and the Economic and Monetary Union, which form the core of the EU economic architecture. Certain policy prerogatives (such as external trade, competition, and the Common Agriculture Policy) are delegated to the supranational level while others (such as financial supervision or fiscal policy) remain largely in the hands of national authorities.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2009
European Integrative Processes of Albania and Mo.docxhumphrieskalyn
European Integrative Processes of Albania and Montenegro
FEEDBACK and things TO AMEND:
1) The Title has to be re-phrased
2) The Figure of the map is wrong
3) The English used needs to make sense
4) Some facts and statistics are wrong
5) Book to include: “The Europeanisation of the Western Balkans; a Failure of EU conditionality?” ISBN: 978-3-319-91412-1
6) Freedom House has a report on Albania and Montenegro and Check EU parliment resolutions.
7) Create your own opinion, argument and support it by facts.
ABSTRACT
This study is presenting the analysis and evaluation by the use of secondary data from the past researches. The data from the year 2013 to 2017 is utilized in this study to present discussions that are explaining the trends and narrative of the countries to join EU. The conducted study is supporting the discussion by exploring and explaining each aspect of the impact of joining of EU in Albania and Montenegro. This study is presenting the advantages that can be avail by Albania and Montenegro by availing the opportunities through the membership of NATO. The critical literature is presenting the changing trends along with the democratic rights avail by the member countries in Europe under the influence of EU regulations.
Table of Contents
ABSTRACT 2
Chapter 1: Introduction 8
1.1 Research Background 8
1.2 Problem Statement 10
1.3 Research Questions 10
1.4 Research Objectives 11
1.5 Significance of the Study 11
1.6 Project Outline 11
Chapter 2: Literature Review 13
2.1 Chapter Introduction 13
2.2 European Union, its Impacts and Process of Joining 13
2.3 Conceptual Framework 21
2.4 Research Gap 22
2.5 Chapter Summary 22
Chapter 3: Research Methodology 24
3.1 Chapter Introduction 24
3.2 Research Philosophy 24
3.3 Research Type 25
3.4 Research Design 27
3.5 Data Collection Technique 27
3.6 Sampling Technique and Sample Size 28
3.7 Data Analysis 28
3.8 Ethical Consideration 29
3.9 Chapter Summary 31
Chapter 4: Data Analysis and Discussions 32
4.1 Discussions 32
4.2 Chapter Summary 37
Chapter 5: Recommendations and Conclusion 39
5.1 Limitation of the Study 39
5.2 Future Scope 39
5.3 Recommendation 40
5.4 Conclusion 40
6.0 References 42
List of Acronyms
CSR: Corporate Social Responsibility
DPS: Democratic Party of Socialists
ECU: Eurasian Customs Union
EU: European Union
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
IFDI: Inward Foreign Direct Investment
MNC: Multinational Corporations
NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
SME: Small Medium Enterprise
WTO: World Trade Organization
List of Figures
Figure 1: Countries waiting to join EU13
Figure 2: NATO and EU Relations15
Figure 3: The Economic Impact of Brexit20
Chapter 1: Introduction1.1 Research Background
This thesis is going to prove a comparative analysis of the impact of the process of joining the European Union. As per the analysis of Featherstone and Kazamias (2014), it has been found that the European Union made a step by step improvements and changes in the relations o.
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Research of the intelligent resource security of the nanoeconomic development...Igor Britchenko
The resources and resource potential of the innovative component of nanoeconomics are analyzed. The factors of production – classical types of resources such as land, labor, capital and technology – are described. Ways of influencing the security resources of nanoeconomics within the innovation paradigm are evaluated. The purpose of the study is to identify the factor of nanoeconomics in the formation of resource security potential in the innovation paradigm. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set: to characterize the importance of the land resource as a factor in the potential of economic nanosystems; to highlight the importance of capital as a factor of nanoproduction and an indicator of the innovation paradigm; to determine the labor resource in the development of innovative nanosystems; to analyze the intellectual potential of nanoeconomic development of the innovation paradigm; to identify clusters of innovative nanopotential in the regions of countries with transition economies. Each resource is examined separately with the first analysis of a resource security assessment such as land. The other resource under consideration is labor. Demographic factors become decisive in describing the development of labor resources. The capital factor allows the formation of independent economic systems, when the state budget affects the possibility of developing science, education and health care. A number of methods were applied during the study: methods of induction and deduction (to assess the importance of the innovation paradigm for the development of nanoeconomics); system analysis and structural approach (to determine the aggregate state of production factors); method of comparing the quality of production factors in market economies and in developed countries; an observation method (for assessing the state of resources in different countries); method of cluster analysis (to determine the existence of innovation-territorial regions in countries with economies in transition). The analysis is carried out to identify the conditions of the impact of production factors on the innovative paradigm of nanoeconomics. It reveals theoretical approaches to the formation of nanoeconomics and its active development. As a result of the study of intellectual and resource potential of security, a cluster analysis was carried out to assess the conditions for the formation of innovation-territorial regions. This study allows to understand the role of production security factors in the formation of the innovation paradigm and the efficiency of the development of nanoeconomics. The way of providing the basis for the development of nanoeconomics in the form of efficient use of production factors is considered as a perspective.
This paper analyses the spatial distribution of economic activity in the European Union at NUTS2 level over the 2001-2010 period. The aim of the study is twofold: (i) to provide descriptive evidence of the agglomeration distribution in Europe and its evolution over time across countries; (ii) to identify the nature of agglomeration and the factors that determine its level, with particular attention paid to the socio-ecological transformation occurring in Europe.
The study concludes that: a) the changes in agglomeration are sensitive to demographic transformations taking place; b) the ecological transformation has a mixed effect, depending on each country; c) significant differences are observed between new and old Member States; the crisis has had a significant influence on agglomeration but only in Western Europe.
Authored by: Izabela Styczynska and Constantin Zaman
Tourism is one of leading economic activities in the EU, which significantly contributes to economic development. In order to achieve a sustainable, responsive and high-quality tourism development, it is necessary to plan a strategy that will efficiently use and intensify the processes of tourism development in the EU. The variations in the types and needs of the tourists and the tourist industry impose a multi-dimensional approach to the study of the tourism market. This paper implements a simple methodology for measuring the performance of the EU tourism market using an integrated model for ranking-PROMETHEE model. Based on the eight criteria defined in relation to the performance of the tourist market, the ranking of the 28 EU countries will be carried out. The results of the model will point to the evaluation of the tourism market performance and will define the recommendations and strategies for the tourism market development in relation to the countries that have the best rank.
The current fiscal imbalances and fragilities in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMC) are the result of decades of instability, but have become more visible since 2008, when a combination of adverse economic and political shocks (the global and European financial crises, Arab Spring) hit the region. In an environment of slower growth and higher public expenditure pressures, fiscal deficits and public debts have increased rapidly. This has led to the deterioration of current accounts, a depletion of official reserves, the depreciation of some currencies and higher inflationary pressure.
To avoid the danger of public debt and a balance-of-payment crisis, comprehensive economic reforms, including fiscal adjustment, are urgently needed. These reforms should involve eliminating energy and food subsidies and replacing them with targeted social assistance, reducing the oversized public administration and privatizing public sector enterprises, improving the business climate, increasing trade and investment openness, and sector diversification. The SEMC may also benefit from a peace dividend if the numerous internal and regional conflicts are resolved.
However, the success of economic reforms will depend on the results of the political transition, i.e., the ability to build stable democratic regimes which can resist populist temptations and rally political support for more rational economic policies.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2014
The Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) and the Association of Swedish Development Economists (ASWEDE) has the pleasure to invite you the SITE Academic conference "Fighting Corruption in Developing and Transition Countries".
Conference keynote speakers:
Abhijit Banerjee is currently the Ford Foundation International Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2003 he founded the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), along with Esther Duflo and Sendhil Mullainathan and remains one of the directors of the lab. Banerjee is a past president of the Bureau for the Research in the Economic Analysis of Development, a Research Associate of the NBER, a CEPR research fellow, International Research Fellow of the Kiel Institute, a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the Econometric Society and has been a Guggenheim Fellow and an Alfred P. Sloan Fellow.
Kaushik Basu is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at the World Bank. He is on leave from Cornell University where he is Professor of Economics and the C. Marks Professor of International Studies. From December 2009 to July 2012 he served as the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Government of India at the Ministry of Finance. Till 2009 he was Chairman of the Department of Economics and during 2006-9 he was Director of the Center for Analytic Economics at Cornell.
Simeon Djankov is rector of the New Economic School in Moscow. From 2009 to 2013, he was the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Bulgaria in the government of Boyko Borisov. Prior to his cabinet appointment, Simeon Djankov was a Chief economist of the finance and private sector vice-presidency of the World Bank. He was an associate editor of the Journal of Comparative Economics from 2004 to 2009, and he has also served as a chairman of the board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. He is also a member of the World Bank's Knowledge and Advisory Council, and a Visiting Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
1. 1
ACADEMIC CURRICULUM VITAE OF
CHIEF ASSISTANT PROFESSOR DR. IVAN KRUMOV TODOROV
Ivan Todorov was born on 27 January 1977 in the town of Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria. He holds
a Bachelor’s Degree in International Economic Relations from the University of National and
World Economy in Sofia, a Master’s Degree in Finance from the South-West University “Neofit
Rilski” in Blagoevgrad and a PhD in Finance from the Economic Research Institute of the
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences in Sofia.
Ivan Todorov has worked also as a marketing expert, an accountant, an interpreter and a
teacher in English. In September 2008 he won a job contest and became an Assistant Professor in
Finance at the Faculty of Economics of the South-West University “Neofit Rilski” in
Blagoevgrad. In February 2012 Ivan Todorov obtained his Doctoral Degree in Finance from the
Economic Research Institute of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences in Sofia by defending a
dissertation entitled “Macrofinancial Specificity of the Integration of Bulgaria in the European
Union” and supervised by Professor Doctor of Economic Sciences Garabed Minassian. In
September 2013 he won a job contest for the position of a Chief Assistant Professor at the
Department of Finance and Auditing at the Faculty of Economics of the South-West University
“Neofit Rilski” in Blagoevgrad.
The scientific interests of Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Todorov are in the areas of
Macroeconomics, European Economic Integration, Business Cycle Synchronization, and
Optimum Currency Area Theory; real, nominal and structural convergence of the New Member
States in the European Union with the Euro Area and so on. He lectures on Macroeconomics,
Financial Planning, Comparative Economic Systems, Geo-economics, Transnational
Corporations and Finance of Global Corporations at the South-West University “Neofit Rilski” in
Blagoevgrad.
Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Todorov has gained international teaching experience on
the Erasmus Programme by providing lectures in Macroeconomics (in English) at the Technical
University in Chemnitz, Germany. He has publications in Bulgarian and in English in reputable
scientific blind-peer reviewed journals in Bulgaria and abroad (see the enclosed List of
Publications).
Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Todorov is a Personal member of the European Money
and Finance Forum (SUERF), the Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), the
Union of Economists in Bulgaria and the Union of scientists in Bulgaria.
Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Todorov is a Member of the Editorial Boards of the
International Journal of Management, Economics and Social Sciences, ISSN 2304–1366 and the
Scholedge International Journal of Business Policy & Governance (ISSN: 2394-3351). He is also
on the Scientific Council of the Polish scientific journal „Torun International Studies”, eISSN:
2391-7601.
Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Todorov has reviewed the papers “Euro Area Scenarios
and their Economic Consequences for Slovenia and Serbia”, published in The Managing Global
2. 2
Transitions: International Research Journal, 11(4):323–351, ISSN 1854-6935, "The cognition of
the civil servants and citizens concerning policy resource allocation in Kaohsiung city in
Taiwan", published in The International Journal of Management, Economics and Social Sciences
2014, Vol. 3(3), pp. 144–163, ”Social indicators and the measure of the quality of life” published
in Torun International Studies, No. 1 (7) 2014, pp. 5–13, eISSN: 2391-7601 and „Happiness and
House Prices in Canada: 2009-2013“, published in The International Journal of Management,
Economics and Social Sciences 2016, Vol. 5(2), pp. 57–86. He has participated in a number of
national and international projects such as “LOcal products Festivals and Tourism development
in cross-border cooperation Greece-Bulgaria” (Project LOFT), Subsidy contract
B2.12.03/03.06.2-13, ref. № 2577, financed by the European Territorial Co-operation
Operational Programme "Greece-Bulgaria 2007-2013", Project „Econometric analysis of the
problems of Economic Growth, Disparity and Poverty” under Regulation No. 9 in 2014 etc.
Chief Assistant Professor Dr. Ivan Krumov Todorov has excellent English language skills
(he scored 267 out of maximum 300 points on the Computer-Based TOEFL in 2003). He actively
applies the techniques of Econometric analysis in his research working with the Programs SPSS
and EViews. He passed the online courses „Econometrics: Methods and Applications” of the
Erasmus University Rotterdam with a final grade of 94.2% and „The Power of Macroeconomics:
Economic Principles in the Real World” of University of California, Irvine with a final grade of
97.6%.
LIST OF PUBLICATIONS
Articles in Bulgarian scientific journals in Bulgarian language
1. Todorov, I. (2016). Currency Integration of the New EU Member Countries.
Economic Studies journal, 2016/3, pp. 82-117, ISSN 0205-3292.
2. Todorov, I. and K. Durova. (2016). Bulgaria’s Economic Growth and its
Determinants. Economic Studies journal, 2016/4, pp. 3-35, ISSN 0205-3292.
3. Todorov, I. (2015). Two approaches for estimating the aggregated production
function of Bulgaria. Economic Studies journal, 2015/4, pp. 67-81, ISSN 0205-
3292.
4. Todorov, I. (2015). BULGARIA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH UNDER A
CURRENCY BOARD ARRANGEMENT. Economic and Social Alternatives
journal, 2015/3, pp. 74-90, ISSN 1314-6556.
5. Todorov, I. (2014). Exchange-Rate Regimes on the Path to Euro. Economic
Studies journal, 2014/1, pp. 116-147, ISSN 0205-3292
6. Todorov, I. (2012). Macroeconomic Specifics of Integration of Bulgaria into the
European Union. Economic Studies journal 2012/4, pp. 24-46, ISSN 0205-3292
7. Todorov, I. (2012) European Economic Integration Theories and Criteria.
Economic Thought journal, 2012/2, pp. 131-152, ISSN 0013-2993.
8. Todorov, I. (2013). The Bulgarian Currency Board Arrangement in the Context of
the Future Membership of Bulgaria in the Euro Area. Economic and Social
Alternatives journal, 2013/3, pp. 112-124, ISSN 1314-6556.
3. 3
9. Todorov, I. (2011). Integration of the New Member Countries in EU:
Macroeconomic Objectiveness and Policies. Economics and Management journal,
2011/2, pp. 68-86, ISSN 1312-594X.
10. Todorov, I. (2011). Bulgarian Economy after the Global Crisis: Chances and
Risks. Economics and Management journal, 2011/4, pp. 23-27, ISSN 1312-594X.
11. Todorov, I. (2012). State Budget Problems: Consequences and Solutions.
Economics and Management journal, 2012/1, pp. 36-40, ISSN 1312-594X.
Articles in foreign scientific journals in English language
12. Todorov, I. (2012). The Euro Area Membership of Bulgaria in the Context of the
Debt Crisis. Journal of International Relations, X (3/2012):41-52, ISSN 1336-
1562.
13. Todorov, I. (2013). The Monetary Integration of the New Member States before
the Euro Area Debt Crisis. Managing Global Transitions, ISSN 1854-6935,
11(4):323–338
14. Todorov, I. (2014). MACROECONOMIC TRENDS IN THE NEW MEMBER
COUNTRIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BEFORE THE EURO AREA
DEBT CRISIS. Scientific Annals of the ‟Alexandru Ioan Cuza” University of Iaşi
Economic Sciences 61 (2), 2014, 197-217 DOI 10.2478/aicue-2014-0014
Articles in Bulgarian scientific journals in English language
15. Todorov, I., and N. Patonov. (2012). A few Regressions on Business Cycle
Synchronization between the New Member States and the Euro Area. Economics
and management journal, ISSN 1312-594X, VIII(2/2012):9-22
16. Todorov, I. (2016). Supply-Side Factors of Economic Growth in Bulgaria.
Economic Alternatives, 2/2016: 159-174, ISSN (print): 1312-7462 ISSN (online):
2367-9409.
Reports from conferences in Bulgaria in Bulgarian language
1. Todorov, I., S. Handzhiyska (2005). Sustainability in Tourism Education. In
proceeding of: International Scientific Conference 8-11 June 2005 organized by
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science of the South-West University "Neofit
Rilski
2. Todorov, I., S. Handzhiyska (2005). Geographic Environment and Natural
Resources of the Pirin Mountain. In proceeding of: International Scientific
Conference 8-11 June 2005 organized by Faculty of Mathematics and Natural
Science of the South-West University "Neofit Rilski
3. Todorov, I. (2008). The Depreciating Money Theory by Silvio Gesell:
Applicability under Contemporary Conditions. In proceeding of: Knowledge-
Based Economy and Global Progress, Volume: 1/2008, ISBN 978-954-323-543-8,
pp. 77-84
4. Todorov, I. (2009). The "Green" Discretionary Economic Policy: A Chance under
Global Crisis Conditions. In proceeding of: Pros and Cons the Return of
Protectionism under Economic Crisis, Volume: 2/2009, ISBN 978-954-323-621-3,
pp. 56-63.
5. Todorov, I. (2010). Macroeconomic Effects of Global Crisis on Bulgaria. In
proceeding of: Doctoral Students in a Dialogue with Science, Volume: ISBN 978-
954-680-695-6, pp. 274-280.
4. 4
6. Todorov, I. (2011). LABOR MARKETS OF THE NEW MEMBER STATES IN
THE CONTEXT OF THEIR FUTURE MEMBERSHIP IN THE EURO AREA.
In proceeding of: Financial Dimensions of the Recovery of the Economies of
Central and Eastern European Countries from the Crisis.
7. Todorov, I. (2011). The Financial Integration of the New Member States in the
Context of Their Future Membership in the Euro Area. In proceeding of: The
Economy of Bulgaria - The Way to the Euro, Volume: ISBN 978-954-644-372-4,
pp. 183-187
8. Todorov, I. (2012). THE EURO AREA SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS:
STRUCTURAL AND INSTITUTIONAL DIMENSIONS. In proceeding of:
International Scientific Conference "Two-speed Europe: Is it possible?", Volume:
ISBN 978-954-680-836-3, pp. 147-152.
Reports from conferences abroad in English language
9. Todorov, I. (2012). The Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Euro Area: Causes and
Effects. South-East European Countries towards European Integration. ISBN 978-
9928-115-13-3, University of Elbasan – Albania, 20 October 2012, pp. 78
10. Stoilova, D. and I. Todorov (2015). Bulgaria’s Economic Growth: Supply-Side
Dimensions. Proceedings of the 11th ASECU Conference "OPENNESS,
INNOVATION, EFFICIENCY AND DEMOCRATIZATION AS
PRECONDITIONS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT". Foundation of the
Cracow University of Economics. ISBN: 978-83-65173-36-2 (CD-ROM), 978-83-
65173-37-9 (HTML), p.50-60.
11. Stoilova, D. and I. Todorov (2015). Bulgaria’s Economic Growth: A Supply-Side
Perspective. Proceedings of the Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business
Virtual Conference. Petru Maior University, Tirgu-Mures, Romania.
12. Todorov, I. (2015). ESTIMATING BULGARIA’S AGGREGATE
PRODUCTION: METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS. 18th Annual Conference
on SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH COMPETITIVENESS WITH
QUALITATIVE GROWTH CLUB OF SOPHIA FORUM, FOURTH EDITION.
Book published in Bulgaria in Bulgarian language
1. Todorov, I. (2016). Macroeconomics. Textbook. Reviewers: Associate
Professor Doctor Desislava Stoilova and Associate Professor Doctor Ilko
Penkov, "Avangard Prima" Publishing Company, Sofia.
2. Todorov, I. (2015). Macroeconomic Integration of the Countries from
Central and Eastern Europe in the European Union. Monograph.
Reviewers: Associate Professor Doctor Desislava Stoilova and Associate
Professor Doctor Ilko Penkov, "Avangard Prima" Publishing Company,
Sofia, ISBN: 978-619-160-491-3
3. Todorov, I. (2014). Macroeconomic Governance in the Process of
European Integration. Monograph. Reviewers: Professor Doctor of Science
Garabed Minassian and Associate Professor Doctor Desislava Stoilova.
"Avangard Prima" Publishing Company, Sofia, ISBN: 978-619-160-311-4
4. Todorov, I. (2014). Comparative Economic Systems. Textbook.
Reviewers: Associate Professor Doctor Preslav Dimitrov and Associate