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1
CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE
Eric Xiong, Chien-Yu (Elaine) Su, Tianhong Chu, Dannie Hu, Biying Pan
2
Overview01
03
02
Agenda
Methodology
CLV Analysis
04 Recommendation
3
OVERVIEW
4
UNILEVER CUSTOMERS SEGMENT OVERVIEW
The Home Lovers
Total Spending: 1984.75
TOF:35.85
Recency: 13.93
Freq: 5.68
The Loyalists
Total Spending: 3500.21
TOF:43.67
Recency: 10.21
Freq: 8.91
The Fresh Seekers
Total Spending: 1073.11
TOF:31.18
Recency: 13.41
Freq: 4.20
The Lazy Cats
Total Spending: 1547.06
TOF:33.73
Recency: 13.58
Freq: 4.66
The Frugal Spenders
Total Spending: 650.20
TOF:37.85
Recency: 30.10
Freq: 2.24
The Snackers
Total Spending: 1127.22
TOF:32.43
Recency: 13.29
Freq: 4.73
5
UNILEVER MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY:
COOKING INGREDIENTS
21% of the revenue in the Cooking Ingredients
category comes from Unilever Products
44% of the orders in the Cooking Ingredients
category includes Unilever Products
6
UNILEVER MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY:
HEALTH & BEAUTY
12% of the revenue in the Health & Beauty
category comes from Unilever Products
24% of the orders in the Health & Beauty
category includes Unilever Products
7
METHODOLOGY
8
1
COMPUTE OVERALL LTV
FOR ALL CUSTOMERS AS
THE BENCHMARK
2
COMPARE OVERALL LTV OF
UNILEVER CUSTOMERS
WITH BENCHMARK
3
COMPARE UNILEVER
CUSTOMERS LTV WITH
BENCHMARK WITHIN CLUSTERS
4
RECOMMENDATIONS5
COMPUTE THE
PROPORTION OF
UNILEVER PURCHASE LTV
IN OVERALL LTV
9
ASSUMPTIONS
Inactivity does not necessarily signal the end of the
relationship
All “Buy” state customers have the same likelihood of
buying in the next period
All “No Buy” state customers have the same likelihood
of buying in the next period
Annual Discount Rate: 15%
Profit Margin: 40%
10
TARGET PERIOD
TARGET
PERIOD
FIRST
PERIOD
April
2013
May
2013
2.
Calculate the probability that customers
who didn’t buy in the first period will buy
in the target period
1.
Calculate the probability that customers
who bought in the first period will
continue to buy in the target period
11
VARIABLES FOR CLV CALCULATION
RETENTION RATE:
P0=#of Retained Buyers / # of First Period
Buyers
REACTIVATION RATE:
P1=# of Reactivated Buyers / # of First Period
Non-Buyers
MONETARY:
m=
Buyer’s Average Total Spending In Target Period
FIRST PERIOD NON-BUYERS
FIRST PERIOD BUYERS
RETAINED BUYER
REACTIVATED BUYER
NEW BUYER
12
Customer Lifetime
Value Analysis
13
Average Monthly Spending by Segments
Unilever Customers VS Overall Customers
Spenders
Unilever Customers Have
Higher Average Monthly Spending
14
Retention Rate by Segments
Overall Customers VS Unilever Customers
Reactivation Rate by Segments
Overall Customers VS Unilever Customers
Unilever Customers Have
Higher Retention Rate & Reactivation Rate
15
Lifetime Value by Segments
Overall Customer VS Unilever Customers
36%
Unilever : A Motivator that Drives Higher Lifetime Value
16
Unilever Customers
Proportion of Unilever Product LTV in Overall LTV
Loyalists contribute the Highest Lifetime Value to Unilever
17
IMPLICATIONS
Inclusion of the Unilever products enhances customers' overall LTV
A win-win situation for both Unilever and the online grocery store
Target Segment 1: The Loyalists - highest overall LTV but relatively
low proportion of Unilever purchase
Target Segment 2: The Home Lovers - second highest overall LTV but
relatively low reactivation rate
18
RECOMMENDATION
19
The Loyalist - Segment Profile
Unilever Products Overall Products
Average Monthly
Spending
11.1 333
Retention Rate 66.10% 84.60%
Reactivation Rate 31.30% 35.40%
CLV 73.53 4038.1
Profile
● Hellmann's Real Mayonnaise
● 19.7% of the Loyal customers purchase
Hellmanns
Most Purchased Product
20
Strategy 1: Upselling
Tactics May Include:
Strategy 2: Cross-selling
Tactics May Include:
Current Behavior
Frequent purchase but not much spending comes from
Unilever products
Marketing Objective
Increase Unilever product spending by 5% in the basket
The Loyalist - Marketing Strategy
21
Unilever
Products
Overall Products
Average Monthly
Spending
10.4 446
Retention Rate 56.30% 77.50%
Reactivation Rate 21.40% 25.90%
CLV 52.16 2477.6
Profile
The Home Lovers - Segment Profile
Most Purchased Product
● 16.4% of the Loyal customers purchase
Hellmann's Real Mayonnaise
● 11.5% of the home loving customers buy
Q-tips cotton swabs
22
Current Behavior
Proportionally higher spending on Unilever in the basket yet
lower reactivation rate
Marketing Objective
Enhance reactivation rate to 22.5%
The Home Lovers - Marketing Strategy
Strategy 1:
Email Re-engagement
Tactics May Include:
Offer Email - Incentives for Buy
Strategy 2:
Subscription Model
Tactics May Include:
Encourage customers to a subscribe and save
model by offering special discounts
23
Projected Financial Impact
LTV: $73.53 => $80.88
9.9%
Increase average monthly
spending on Unilever products
by 10%
Loyalist
s
Loyalist
Increase reactivation rate
to 23%
Home
Lovers
LTV: $52.16 => $53.70
2.9%

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Customer Lifetime Value for Unilever

  • 1. 1 CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE Eric Xiong, Chien-Yu (Elaine) Su, Tianhong Chu, Dannie Hu, Biying Pan
  • 4. 4 UNILEVER CUSTOMERS SEGMENT OVERVIEW The Home Lovers Total Spending: 1984.75 TOF:35.85 Recency: 13.93 Freq: 5.68 The Loyalists Total Spending: 3500.21 TOF:43.67 Recency: 10.21 Freq: 8.91 The Fresh Seekers Total Spending: 1073.11 TOF:31.18 Recency: 13.41 Freq: 4.20 The Lazy Cats Total Spending: 1547.06 TOF:33.73 Recency: 13.58 Freq: 4.66 The Frugal Spenders Total Spending: 650.20 TOF:37.85 Recency: 30.10 Freq: 2.24 The Snackers Total Spending: 1127.22 TOF:32.43 Recency: 13.29 Freq: 4.73
  • 5. 5 UNILEVER MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY: COOKING INGREDIENTS 21% of the revenue in the Cooking Ingredients category comes from Unilever Products 44% of the orders in the Cooking Ingredients category includes Unilever Products
  • 6. 6 UNILEVER MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY: HEALTH & BEAUTY 12% of the revenue in the Health & Beauty category comes from Unilever Products 24% of the orders in the Health & Beauty category includes Unilever Products
  • 8. 8 1 COMPUTE OVERALL LTV FOR ALL CUSTOMERS AS THE BENCHMARK 2 COMPARE OVERALL LTV OF UNILEVER CUSTOMERS WITH BENCHMARK 3 COMPARE UNILEVER CUSTOMERS LTV WITH BENCHMARK WITHIN CLUSTERS 4 RECOMMENDATIONS5 COMPUTE THE PROPORTION OF UNILEVER PURCHASE LTV IN OVERALL LTV
  • 9. 9 ASSUMPTIONS Inactivity does not necessarily signal the end of the relationship All “Buy” state customers have the same likelihood of buying in the next period All “No Buy” state customers have the same likelihood of buying in the next period Annual Discount Rate: 15% Profit Margin: 40%
  • 10. 10 TARGET PERIOD TARGET PERIOD FIRST PERIOD April 2013 May 2013 2. Calculate the probability that customers who didn’t buy in the first period will buy in the target period 1. Calculate the probability that customers who bought in the first period will continue to buy in the target period
  • 11. 11 VARIABLES FOR CLV CALCULATION RETENTION RATE: P0=#of Retained Buyers / # of First Period Buyers REACTIVATION RATE: P1=# of Reactivated Buyers / # of First Period Non-Buyers MONETARY: m= Buyer’s Average Total Spending In Target Period FIRST PERIOD NON-BUYERS FIRST PERIOD BUYERS RETAINED BUYER REACTIVATED BUYER NEW BUYER
  • 13. 13 Average Monthly Spending by Segments Unilever Customers VS Overall Customers Spenders Unilever Customers Have Higher Average Monthly Spending
  • 14. 14 Retention Rate by Segments Overall Customers VS Unilever Customers Reactivation Rate by Segments Overall Customers VS Unilever Customers Unilever Customers Have Higher Retention Rate & Reactivation Rate
  • 15. 15 Lifetime Value by Segments Overall Customer VS Unilever Customers 36% Unilever : A Motivator that Drives Higher Lifetime Value
  • 16. 16 Unilever Customers Proportion of Unilever Product LTV in Overall LTV Loyalists contribute the Highest Lifetime Value to Unilever
  • 17. 17 IMPLICATIONS Inclusion of the Unilever products enhances customers' overall LTV A win-win situation for both Unilever and the online grocery store Target Segment 1: The Loyalists - highest overall LTV but relatively low proportion of Unilever purchase Target Segment 2: The Home Lovers - second highest overall LTV but relatively low reactivation rate
  • 19. 19 The Loyalist - Segment Profile Unilever Products Overall Products Average Monthly Spending 11.1 333 Retention Rate 66.10% 84.60% Reactivation Rate 31.30% 35.40% CLV 73.53 4038.1 Profile ● Hellmann's Real Mayonnaise ● 19.7% of the Loyal customers purchase Hellmanns Most Purchased Product
  • 20. 20 Strategy 1: Upselling Tactics May Include: Strategy 2: Cross-selling Tactics May Include: Current Behavior Frequent purchase but not much spending comes from Unilever products Marketing Objective Increase Unilever product spending by 5% in the basket The Loyalist - Marketing Strategy
  • 21. 21 Unilever Products Overall Products Average Monthly Spending 10.4 446 Retention Rate 56.30% 77.50% Reactivation Rate 21.40% 25.90% CLV 52.16 2477.6 Profile The Home Lovers - Segment Profile Most Purchased Product ● 16.4% of the Loyal customers purchase Hellmann's Real Mayonnaise ● 11.5% of the home loving customers buy Q-tips cotton swabs
  • 22. 22 Current Behavior Proportionally higher spending on Unilever in the basket yet lower reactivation rate Marketing Objective Enhance reactivation rate to 22.5% The Home Lovers - Marketing Strategy Strategy 1: Email Re-engagement Tactics May Include: Offer Email - Incentives for Buy Strategy 2: Subscription Model Tactics May Include: Encourage customers to a subscribe and save model by offering special discounts
  • 23. 23 Projected Financial Impact LTV: $73.53 => $80.88 9.9% Increase average monthly spending on Unilever products by 10% Loyalist s Loyalist Increase reactivation rate to 23% Home Lovers LTV: $52.16 => $53.70 2.9%