- Tropical rainforests face numerous threats including habitat loss, climate change, hunting, roads, fires, diseases, and industrialization. - Deforestation is accelerating due to road and highway expansion, fires, illegal gold mining, China's role in illegal logging, growth of biofuels, and population growth. - Climate change will further stress forests through rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and threats to high-elevation species. - Environmental factors interact and compound each other's impacts, such as interactions between forest fragmentation, fires, logging, and hunting. The future of tropical forests looks increasingly dire unless action is taken to address these threats.

1. Healing the PlanetConserving the world’s tropical forests William F. Laurance Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science (TESS) & School of Marine & Tropical Biology James Cook University Cairns, Australia

2. Habitat loss Climate change Hunting Roads Fires Exotic pathogens

3. Is the sky falling?

4. Wright & Muller-Landau (2006): The Future of Tropical Forest Species Seriously challenge idea of large-scale species extinctions in the coming century Difficult to ignore: Prominent scientists Initially presented as Wright’s ATBC presidential address Key conclusions were widely distributed in a press release

5. Public forum Debating the Tropical Extinction Crisis National Museum of Natural History Washington, D.C. 13 February 2009

6. Trust me

8. Epicenters of biodiversity

9. Recycling rainfall

10. Stabilizing streams & rivers

11. Protecting soils

12. Storing carbon

13. Massive carbon emissions

14. What is happening to the rainforests?

15. Burgeoning Industrialization & Globalization Globalization and industrial drivers of deforestation have grown sharply in past 1-2 decades Global industrial activity expected to expand 3-5 fold by 2050 Butler & Laurance (2008) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Laurance (2009) ITTO Tropical Forest Update

16. Brazilian Amazonia i 1980 Per-capita deforestation rate has accelerated sharply Massive expansion of industrial-scale cattle ranching, soy farms, and logging 1991 Old-growth forest (%) 1980 1991 2000 2000 Population density (no. km-1)

17. 7,500 km of new highways in Brazilian Amazon Triad of highways from Amazon to Pacific Ocean 52,000 km of new logging roads in Congo Basin New roads opening up last intact forests in Sumatra Panama-Colombia Highway could decimate Darién wilderness 2) Massive Road & Highway Expansion Laurance et al. (2009) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Laurance (2009) New Scientist

18. Deforestation Pandora’s Box Effect Fires Adeney et al. (2009) PLoS One

19. Illegal Gold Mining

21. Moderately degraded

22. Lightly degraded

23. PristineLaurance et al. (2001) Science

24. Gabon 3) China’s Role in Illegal Logging Laurance (2006) Tropinet Laurance (2007) Newsletter of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Laurance (2008) Science Myanmar-China border

25. 4) Explosive Growth of Biofuels Oil palm Soy Laurance (2007) Science Scharlemann & Laurance (2008) Science Sugarcane

26. Projected increase in tropical land devoted to biofuel crops by 2030 Pan-tropical increase could exceed 300 million hectares Rights & Resources Institute (2008)

27. ‘Corn connection’ to Amazon deforestation $11 billion/year for corn-ethanol subsidies Laurance (2007) Science Laurance (2008) New Scientist Corn production rises 25%, soy falls 19%

28. 5) Population Growth For many developing nations, growth is slowingonlyrelative to the breakneck pace in recent decades—and in some cases is still rising dramatically Source: Columbia University & Population Action International

29. Population and Biodiversity Hotspots Surviving habitat just 2.3% of global land area 50% of vascular plant species 42% of terrestrial vertebrate species Myers et al. (2000) Nature

30. 6) Emerging Pathogens Rinderpest Ebola Avian malaria White-nose disease

31. Chytrid fungus & amphibians Laurance et al. (1996, 1997) Conservation Biology Chytrid spore

32. 7) Climatic & Atmospheric Changes Cyclone Larry strikes north Queensland, March 2006

35. How Will Global Warming Affect Tropical Climates?

36. Temperature Anomalies (oC) for 2070-2099 Hotter conditions Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario All models predict rising temperatures, but vary in magnitude

37. Precipitation Anomalies (mm/day) for 2070-2099 Low GHG Scenario High GHG Scenario Precipitation Predictions vary hugely, especially at finer scales

38. Warming & high-elevation biota Many elevational specialists in tropics High endemism Western Ghats, India Central Panama

39. Upland endemics in tropical Australia

40. Future scenario Bioclimatic models of future warming Even modest warming (1o C) and drying (10%) could dramatically reduce & fragment cool upland forests D. W. Hilbert et al. (2001) Austral Ecology Present day

41. Projected habitat declines for the Golden Bowerbird, an upland endemic S. E. Williams & D. W. Hilbert (2006), in Emerging Threats to Tropical Forests, Univ. of Chicago Press.

42. IPCC prediction range Projected vertebrate extinctions in tropical Australia Sharp acceleration above 2o C  S. E. Williams et al. (2003) Proceedings of the Royal Society B

43. Move over, polar bear? Laurance (2009) New Scientist Laurance (2009) Natural History Laurance (2009) The Ecologist Laurance (2010) Environment Magazine

44. 8) Environmental Synergisms

45. Forest fragmentation & fire

46. Laurance & Williamson (2001) Conserv. Biology Cochrane & Laurance (2002) J. Tropical Ecology Laurance (2003) Trends in Ecology & Evolution Laurance (2004) Phil. Trans. Royal Society B Cochrane & Laurance (2009) Ambio

47. Aftermath of recurring surface fires

48. Logging & hunting Laurance et al. (2006, 2008) Conservation Biology Laurance (2010) Africa Geographic Magazine

49. Fragmentation & climate change Rondônia, Brazil Central Panama

50. Synergisms are Killers Laurance & Useche (2009) Conservation Biology

51. Is it all bad news?

52. Positive trends The number and total area of reserves has risen, especially if one includes indigenous and semi-protected lands Public attitudes are changing in tropical countries Carbon-trading could help significantly

53. Thank You