This document discusses predictive policing and proposes a combined predictive model. It summarizes that traditional hotspot and optimal forager approaches cause crime displacement. A wider "PredPol" approach may require significant resources. The document proposes a model that predicts both crime locations using optimal forager analysis and offender locations using geographical profiling of linked crimes. This combined model could enhance resource focus, provide an evidence basis for targeting, and reduce displacement while magnifying diffusion. Potential blockers include challenges with crime linkage, needing staff buy-in, training, and managerial support. The future may include more effective crime linkage, better use of big data/analytics, and predicting offenders before offenses.

1. PREDICTIVE POLICING
The Optimal Forager and the Missing Dimension
ERIC HALFORD MA

2. Origin of Thesis
Necessity - CSR and funding formula
Efficiency - Drive Towards Evidence Based Policing- How
do you apply science to policing to Enhance Use of
Resources
Effectiveness – How to Continue or Maintain
Unprecedented Reductions in Crime
Economy – Better Value for Money
Comprehensive performance management literature
review

3. The Literature
o Criminology, Psychology, Policing
o Problem Orientated Policing – Reduction In NHPTs – All But Ceased
o Hotspot Policing – Effective But Needs To Evolve
o Intelligence Led Policing – Reduction In Intelligence Sees Framework
Collapse
o Predictive Policing – Evolution Not Revolution
o Absence of Literature on What is Being Called Predictive Policing
o Empirical Literature Across Policing Academia has Somewhat Stalled

4. Predictive Policing
No Consensus on Definition but…
Increased Efficiency and Value For Money:
“With predictive policing, we have the tools to put
cops at the right place at the right time or bring other
services to impact crime, and we can do so with less”
(Gascon, 2009).

5. Predictive Policing
Disparate Attempts to Introduce Across The UK
Some Software Centric Approaches – i.e. PredPol
Predominately Adopted in The Form of Optimal
Forager/Near Repeat Victimisation
9 Potential Case Studies Identified

6. Predictive Policing
How The Research Was Done:
3 Wholesale Case Studies
20 + Interviews of Practitioners And Analysts
Analysis of Crime Records
Questionnaires
Hundreds of Pages of Quantitative Analytical Reports
*Caveat - Access Denied To Study Pilots Using Software Approaches I.E.
PredPol Which May Impact on Conclusions

7. The Optimal Forager
• Pretext Is Simple – Criminals Behave As Foraging
Animals
• Foraging Animals Target Areas Low in Risk, High in
Reward – Food is Their Target
• Criminals Act in The Same Manner – Realisable
Property is Their Target

8. Op Forager is
Fundamentally Flawed
Research Shows That All UK Implementations of
Op Forager Assumes a Two Tier Interaction
The Criminal is The Predator
The Victim is The Prey

9. Op Forager is
Fundamentally Flawed
Ecology Literature However Identifies it as a Three
Tier Interaction (Hugie, 1994 And Sih, 1998)
Predator (Police – Capable Guardian) – Prey
(Criminal – Motivated Offender) – Resource
(Victim)
Why is This Important?

10. What Ecology Says
The Impact of Increased Predation Risk is
Consistently Overlooked (Lima, 2005)
Increased Predation on Foraging Animals Shows
That it Does Not Reduce or Stop The Animals
Foraging (Verdolin, 2005)
It Forces the Forager to Alter Their Behaviour in a
Number of Ways (Lima, 2002)

11. Changes in Behaviour
1. The Forager Will Alter Their Selected Resource
2. They Will Reduce The Handling Time
3. They Will Increase Their Vigilance In Response To Increased Predation,
Particularly On The Periphery Of Previously Foraged Areas (Kelley
Et Al, 2001)
4. Higher ‘Giving Up’ Rate by the Forager Before Ultimately Seeking a
New Foraging Patch (Kelly Et Al, 2001).
5. Forager May Also Choose to Begin Searching in Groups Which
Provides Additional Security And Early Detection Of Predators (Berkley,
2000)
6. They Will Switch The Foraging Patch (Engelhart And Muller-schwarze
1995; Epple Et Al. 1993; Pfister Et Al. 1990; Sullivan And Crump 1984)

12. Identified Criminal
Behavioural Manifestations
1. The Criminal Changed the Type of Target i.e. From Dwellings to
Business
2. Items That They Sought Changed to Ones That Had a Lower Handling
Time
3. The Criminal Became More Aware of Increased Police Presence. As
Such the ‘Giving Up’ May Increased
4. Particularly Prevalent at the Edge of Patches or in This Context, the
Predicted 400m Prediction Zones
5. They Recruited Assistance – Social Contagion? Boost Impact
6. Most Significantly, the Criminal Simply Changed the Patch and Switched
Their Activity From One Area to Another

13. The Result
Minimal, If Any, ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction Or
Prevention
If Crime Reduction or Prevention Did Occur it Was
Only Small, Short Term And Geo-Specific
Significant Levels of Crime Displacement Occurred
Can in Fact Increase Overall Crime if
Implemented Ineffectively
On the Plus Side Crime Diffusion Was Present

14. How to Combat
Behavioural Change?
It is Not a One Way Interaction
There Are Behavioural Changes That The Predator Can
Make
When a Predator Can Move Between the Area of the
Preys Resource and Natural Habitat, it Directly Impacts
On The Prey’s Mortality and Negates any Antipredator
Benefits of Moving Beyond Their Habitat
(Werner and Gilliam, 1984 and Bouskilla, 1998)

15. What Does That Mean?
If the Police Can Operate in Both the Area of the
Criminal’s Home or Base and the Area the Criminal
Commits Crime and Seeks Their Victims
(Resource)……..
……They Stand a Significantly Greater Chance of
Apprehending or Deterring Them Completely

16. How Can We Do That?
• Traditional Hotspot Policing AKA – Crime Spikes
• The Standalone Optimal Forager Predictive
Approach
• The Wider Hotspot ‘PredPol’ Approach
• Or, Something Entirely New?
• A Combined Predictive Model

17. TRADITIONAL OR PREDICTED HOTSPOT APPROACH
Traditional Hotspot
or Predicted Forager
Locality

18. Traditional or Predicted
Hotspot Approach
Both Cause Crime Displacement
Both Rely on Intelligence to Operate within the
‘Natural Habitat’
However, some UK forces have experienced up
to a 75% reduction in intel 2005-2015
Both End Up ‘Rounding Up the Usual Suspects’
Is the Current NIM Framework Even Effective
Anymore?

19. THE WIDER ‘PREDPOL’ HOTSPOT

20. ……”You can’t just go and suppress all those small
spikes in crime; you’re going to suppress the big hot
spot……the small spikes in crime that are out there in
the environment are ready to nucleate into a new one..
However, the larger, subcritical hot spots do not re-
emerge after increased policing”
(Brantingham, 2006)
Translated = Unpalatable. You Probably Need a Big
Budget And Lots of Resources Dedicated to Patrol
Saturation

21. A Combined Predictive
Model
EVOLUTION NOT REVOLUTION
Predicts Locality of Both Crime and Offender
Optimal Forager Crime Location Predictions
Geographical Profiling to Predict the Serial
Offenders Likely Home or Base
Purely Evidence Based and Scientific

22. GEOGRAPHICAL
PROFILING
DEFINITION
“An investigative technique used to
determine the most likely location of a
criminal’s residence based upon the
geographic location of crime sites”
(Prof. David L. Wiesenthal, 2012)

23. THE COMBINED PREDICTIVE MODEL

24. The Steps
Offences Committed
Crime Linkage Analysis Identifies Serial Offending
and Linked Crimes
Geographically Profile Linked Offences – Predict
Offenders Natural Habitat
Optimal Forager Analysis – Predict Future Crime Area
Traditional Policing Techniques – Subsequent Use of
Resources to Target the Profiled Areas and Suspects

25. The Predicted Result
Enhanced Focus on T&C of Finite Resources
Evidence Basis for Target Selection
Evidence Basis for Priority Offender Management
Greater ‘Overall’ Crime Reduction and Prevention
Potential
Reduced Crime Displacement
Magnified Crime Diffusion

26. The Potential Blockers
Cops are Rubbish at Crime Linkage
The Human Factor – Staff Must ‘Buy In’ for
Success
Training is Key – Staff Must Understand the Theory
to Buy In
Senior Managers – Attitude and Support Will Make
it Stand or Fall

27. The Future
More Effective Ways to Link Crimes
Better Use of Big Data and Predictive Analytics
Predict Offenders Before They Offend
Intervention Pathways

28. SIMPLE'S!
ANY QUESTIONS?