Building business apps is no joke. As designers, we are often asked to create apps that have the wow factor, they need to be distinctive, and we are rarely appreciated when we create something pragmatic, something that simply works. Moving forward in the face of uncertainty, it is essential to devise a plan, an UX roadmap that includes research, objectives and tests. In a world where success is just when preparation meets opportunity, starting with ready to be validated solid hypotheses is the secret sauce to a project without risks. Are you a risk taker?

1. UX TRACK
HOANG HUYNH @aetheros
CRAFTING
GREAT HYPOTHESES

2. 2
WHAT IF
Quantum Break - courtesy of Remedy

3. ABOUT
THIS IS ME
3
HI!
My name is HOANG
I AM A DESIGNER
Experience Strategist, partner PRSD
CSPO®, Advisor and Consultant
Lecturer, University of Bologna (FAM)
Country Manager IDF
@aetheros

4. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES4

5. courtesy of someone on Ebay5
HI!
WE ARE
A DESIGNER

6. courtesy of LADYBEARD6
HI!
WE ARE
A DESIGNER

7. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES7
MEANWHILE…
‣ Fact: Observations about the world around us. Example: “It’s bright
outside.”
‣ Hypothesis: A proposed explanation for a phenomenon made as a
starting point for further investigation. Example: “It’s bright outside
because the sun is probably out.”
‣ Theory: A well-substantiated explanation acquired through the scientific
method and repeatedly tested and confirmed through observation and
experimentation. Example: “When the sun is out, it tends to make it bright
outside.”
‣ Law: A statement based on repeated experimental observations that
describes some phenomenon of nature. Proof that something happens
and how it happens, but not why it happens. Example: Newton’s Law of
Universal Gravitation.

8. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES8
IT’S NOT ABOUT

9. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES9
A STORY

10. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES10
A STORY
1880 Otto Frederick Rohwedder

11. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES11
‣ 1912 Otto invented the bread
slicer machine
‣ He sold everything to fund his
new venture
‣ 1916 He created a prototype
‣ 1917 A fire destroyed
everything
‣ 1927 He tried again
A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!

12. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES12
‣ 1928 … and again … and
again …. and again…
‣ Once more, with feelings
‣ 1930 Continental Baking
Company introduced sliced
Wonder Bread
‣ The rest is history…
A STORY YAY, OTTO KNOWS BEST!

13. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES13
‣ 1928 … and again … and
again …. and again…
‣ Once more, with feelings
‣ 1930 Continental Baking
Company introduced sliced
Wonder Bread
‣ The rest is history…
A STORY SAD, OTTO

14. 14 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THE REAL HERO
CHARLES IN CHARGE !
Charles Strite

15. 15
DO NOT RELY ON LUCK
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THE BOTTOM LINE

16. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES16
‣ We track everything on
the client (app) and
server side.
‣ We track every action,
every intent, with their
result.
‣ We track the elapsed
time
‣ We track the errors and
the rebounded actions
and all the give ups.
0"
5"
10"
15"
20"
25"
30"
35"
1"
285"
569"
853"
1137"
1421"
1705"
1989"
2273"
2557"
2841"
3125"
3409"
3693"
3977"
4261"
4545"
4829"
Number'of'Errors'
Number"of"Errors"
0,00%"
50,00%"
100,00%"
150,00%"
200,00%"
250,00%"
300,00%"
350,00%"
1"
285"
569"
853"
1137"
1421"
1705"
1989"
2273"
2557"
2841"
3125"
3409"
3693"
3977"
4261"
4545"
4829"
%'of'Errors'
%"of"Errors"
0"
0,2"
0,4"
0,6"
0,8"
1"
1,2"
1,4"
1"
270"
539"
808"
1077"
1346"
1615"
1884"
2153"
2422"
2691"
2960"
3229"
3498"
3767"
4036"
4305"
4574"
4843"
Average'Time'
Average"Time"

17. courtesy from ADOBE17
A NOT SO FICTIONAL EXAMPLE

18. Crafting Great Hypotheses18
DEVISE A PLAN

19. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES19
‣ What is the problem?
‣ Will it be considered?
‣ Will it sell? How?
‣ Will it be used? HOW?
‣ Will it be appreciated?
‣ Will it be loved?
ABOUT THE BUSINESS
LOVE MARKS
AWARENESS
FAMILIARITY
CONSIDERATION
PURCHASE
LOYALTY
LOVE
WORSHIP

20. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES20
LEANING LEAN…

21. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros21
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS

22. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros22
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
WE ARE WRONG
’TIL “reasonably” PROVEN RIGHT
WE ARE RIGHT
UNTIL PROVEN WRONG

23. BVS - courtesy of Warner Bros23
THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCE
HYPOTHESES ASSUMPTIONS
WILL BE TESTED
(for sure)
WE ARE
ALREADY RIGHT
(who cares?)

24. 24
If we believe there is even a one percent chance that he is our
enemy, we have to take it as an absolute certainty. ~ Daredevil
”
ASSUMPTIONS
BY SHEER WILL
BvS - courtesy of Warner Bros

25. Breaking Bad - courtesy of AMC25
DING.
ASSUMPTIONS
BY MEMORY OR EXPERIENCE

26. FOOTNOTE or SECTION TITLE26
ASSUMPTIONS
BY CONTEXT

27. SHERLOCK - courtesy of BBC127
‣ DEDUCTION:
using general rules to
m a k e a p r e d i c t i o n
about a future event or
action.
‣ INDUCTION:
drawing new (hopefully)
conclusions or rules
based on observations
or patterns of behavior.
HYPOTHESES
THE SMARTEST WAY

28. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES28
‣ 1. Systems Analysis
analyzing the parts of a system and
how they interact; simulations
‣ 2. Problem Solving
overcoming constraints or limiting
conditions to achieve a goal
‣ 3. Experimental Inquiry
generating and testing explanations
of observed phenomena
‣ 4. Investigation
identifying and resolving issues
regarding past events that have
confusions or contradictions
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD

29. 29
BIAS ARE
ALWAYS BEHIND
THE CORNER
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
NASSIM TALEB’S
BLACK SWAN

30. 30 CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
BIASES

31. FINAL DESTINATION, courtesy of New Line31
‣ The normalcy bias, or normality
bias, is a mental state people
enter when facing a disaster. It
c a u s e s p e o p l e t o
u n d e re s t i m a t e b o t h t h e
possibility of a disaster and its
possible effects. This may result
in situations where people fail
to adequately prepare and,
on a larger scale, the failure of
governments to include the
populace in its disaster
preparations.
BIASES - BEFORE

32. Dr. WHO’s Perception Filter - courtesy of BBC132
‣ Somebody / Someone
else's problem (also
known as SEP) is a
psychological effect
where people choose
to dissociate themselves
from an issue that may
be in critical need of
recognition.
BIASES - BEFORE

33. From TUMBLR33
‣ Dunning-Kruger effect
T h e t e n d e n c y f o r
unskilled individuals to
overestimate their own
ability and the tendency
f o r e x p e r t s t o
underestimate their own
ability
BIASES - DURING A TEST

34. courtesy of James Clear34
‣ Confirmation bias
The tendency to search for,
interpret, focus on and
remember information in a
way that confirms one's
preconceptions.
‣ Congruence bias
T h e t e n d e n c y t o t e s t
hypotheses exclusively
through direct testing,
instead of testing possible
alternative hypotheses
BIASES - DURING A TEST

35. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES35
‣ Hindsight bias, also
known as the knew-it-all-
along effect or creeping
d e t e r m i n i s m , i s t h e
inclination, after an event
has occurred, to see the
event as having been
predictable, despite
there having been little or
no objective basis for
predicting it
BIASES - AFTER

36. 36
GAMES,
SIMULATION,
INQUIRY
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
WITH YOUR COMPANY / CLIENTS
THE RIGHT WAY

37. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES37
‣ SIMPLE, CLEAR, CONCISE
‣ TESTABLE
‣ FALSIFIABLE
(the opposite exists)
‣ CANNOT BE PROVEN
(It’s philosophical)
HYPOTHESES’
FEATURES

38. CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES38
‣ FORMULATE THE NULL HYPOTHESES (H0)
‣ CHOOSE THE APPROPRIATE ALTERNATIVES
‣ DEFINING VARIABLES
‣ SPECIFY THE LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE ( THRESHOLD )
‣ VALIDATE LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW
CRAFTING HYPOTHESES
BACK IN THE MATH CLASS

39. from DAVID SHERWIN39
‣ Attitude-related hypothesis
“TV watchers who use social networks like to hear about
their friends’ favorite TV shows.”
‣ Behavior-related hypothesis
“TV watchers only want to share clips from shows they
watch most frequently.”
‣ Feature-related hypothesis
“TV watchers are more likely to share a highlight from a
show if it’s popular with other viewers as well.”
IF WE DO [THIS] , [VARIABLE] of CUSTOMERS WILL [BEHAVIOUR]
CRAFTING HYPOTHESES
DOMAINS

40. ONE CLICK CUSTOMER CARE
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES40
THE SCENARIO
‣ One action
bluetooth button

41. Hoang Huynh @aetheros
CRAFTING GREAT HYPOTHESES
THANK YOU