This document provides an overview and caveats for COVID-19 analyses conducted by Steven Shafer of Stanford University. It lists data sources and modeling approaches used. Charts in the PowerPoint presentation analyze COVID-19 trends in the US, other countries, US states, and include metrics like new cases, testing rates, hospitalizations, and mortality rates. The document is intended to be shared freely and suggestions are welcome to improve the analyses.

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. It is simply a set of regressions in R to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R
program code and all previous PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if
you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. If
you create new graphs, please let me know, as I may want to add them to my analyses.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary as apolitical as possible. I am now including partisan lean as a metric. This is just more data to understand
the COVID epidemic.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning. However, as an anesthesiologist at Stanford, when I have clinical duties and USAFacts has not updated the US data
by the time I leave for Stanford the analysis will be delayed.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
• USA Death Data: https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_deaths_usafacts.csv
• USA Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
Models:
1. Future projections are based on the Gompertz function: log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 = 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a
naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia has a good description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function. The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases. These points
appear as red dots in the figures.
2. The rate of changed is based on a simple linear regression of new cases over the last 10 days, divided by the number of new cases yesterday.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, or locations of interest to friends and colleagues. Additionally, some locations
figure prominently in news reports (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or have significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada,
Mexico). I am happy to add locations, just let me know.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 -- Deaths: 98,220 -- Deaths per 10,000: 3.1 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
cases on June 30th,
based on the total
cases (see above) *
case mortality (see
below)
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, calculated
as red line (above) * mortality
(see below)
Red line: predicted new cases
based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the
red dots
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/5th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Funny bump: an artifact of the
Gompertz function, which
mathematically requires an
inflection in total cases.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Cumulative deaths
/ population *
10,000
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Yesterday’s
total cases
and deaths
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below

3. US v. Asia and Europe
3

4. USA
3,292,258
151,475
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,422,299 -- Deaths: 124,410 -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
4

5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
37,121
1,429
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,167 -- Deaths: 1,311 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
5

6. Western Europe
1,441,040
175,241
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,346,919 -- Deaths: 162,712 -- Case Mortality: 12.1% -- Daily Change: -2.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
6

7. US States
7

8. Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-06-26
8

9. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
9

10. Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-06-26
10

11. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
11

12. Deaths per million
AK
HI
ME
MT
ID
VT
WV
OK
OR
WY
UT
ND
KS
KY
CO
IA
NV
TX
WI
MI
TN
WA
SD
VA
NC
MO
CA
NE
OH
AR
SC
FL
MN
IN
NM
GA
NY
PA
NH
AL
CT
LA
MD
IL
MS
DC
NJ
MA
AZ
DE
RI
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30 40 50
State
Averagedeathsperdaypermillionpopulation
Averaged over past 7 days
US COVID-19 Death Rates
12

13. Percent Population Tested
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
0
5
10
15
20
PercentPopulationTested
Testing as a Percent of State Population
13

14. Testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Numberofdailytestsfrommintomax
Testing trends from min to max
14

15. Percent Positive Tests
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
PercentPositive(%)
Percent Positive Tests Over Last 28 Days
15

16. Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
16

17. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
17

18. Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AKAZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HIID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MNMS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
SC
SD TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0 5 10 15 20
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-26
18

19. Alabama
63,365
1,427
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alabama projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 33,206 -- Deaths: 896 -- Case Mortality: 2.7% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
19

20. Alaska
973
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Alaska projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 789 -- Deaths: 19 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: -4.9% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
20

21. Arizona
179,893
2,831
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arizona projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 63,032 -- Deaths: 1,506 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
21

22. Arkansas
37,356
607
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Arkansas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,062 -- Deaths: 243 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
22

23. California
359,521
8,908
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
California projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,000
4,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 200,457 -- Deaths: 5,804 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
23

24. Colorado
37,331
2,006
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Colorado projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,740 -- Deaths: 1,675 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
24

25. Connecticut
50,091
4,813
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Connecticut projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 46,284 -- Deaths: 4,305 -- Case Mortality: 9.3% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
25

26. Delaware
12,864
703
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Delaware projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,017 -- Deaths: 508 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, +1.3% Deaths
26

27. District of Columbia
11,659
680
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
District of Columbia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 10,159 -- Deaths: 543 -- Case Mortality: 5.3% -- Daily Change: -0.9% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
27

28. Florida
251,277
4,891
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Florida projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 114,018 -- Deaths: 3,329 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +4.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
28

29. Georgia
110,707
4,279
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Georgia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 71,948 -- Deaths: 2,754 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
29

30. Hawaii
1,199
17
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Hawaii projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 858 -- Deaths: 17 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
30

31. Idaho
7,455
107
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Idaho projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,873 -- Deaths: 91 -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +8.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
31

32. Illinois
159,627
9,123
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Illinois projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 139,773 -- Deaths: 6,814 -- Case Mortality: 4.9% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
32

33. Indiana
55,702
3,361
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Indiana projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
1,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 43,656 -- Deaths: 2,676 -- Case Mortality: 6.1% -- Daily Change: -0.2% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
33

34. Iowa
37,779
943
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iowa projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 27,180 -- Deaths: 694 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +2.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
34

35. Kansas
17,638
336
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kansas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,116 -- Deaths: 267 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
35

36. Kentucky
21,165
729
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Kentucky projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
0
10
20
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 14,694 -- Deaths: 554 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
36

37. Louisiana
73,473
3,544
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 53,863 -- Deaths: 3,056 -- Case Mortality: 5.7% -- Daily Change: +6.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
37

38. Maine
4,078
112
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maine projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,108 -- Deaths: 103 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
38

39. Maryland
80,552
4,145
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Maryland projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 65,782 -- Deaths: 3,167 -- Case Mortality: 4.8% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
39

40. Massachusetts
116,181
9,475
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Massachusetts projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 108,535 -- Deaths: 7,972 -- Case Mortality: 7.3% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.6% Deaths
40

41. Michigan
76,066
6,635
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Michigan projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 68,997 -- Deaths: 6,135 -- Case Mortality: 8.9% -- Daily Change: +3.1% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
41

42. Minnesota
46,963
2,053
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Minnesota projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,140 -- Deaths: 1,410 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
42

43. Mississippi
36,385
1,491
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mississippi projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 24,627 -- Deaths: 1,017 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +16.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
43

44. Missouri
29,338
1,460
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Missouri projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,595 -- Deaths: 985 -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
44

45. Montana
1,338
31
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Montana projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
0.0
1.0
2.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 827 -- Deaths: 23 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
45

46. Nebraska
23,500
511
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nebraska projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,192 -- Deaths: 267 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: -2.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
46

47. Nevada
26,652
652
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Nevada projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 15,162 -- Deaths: 511 -- Case Mortality: 3.4% -- Daily Change: +4.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
47

48. New Hampshire
6,872
540
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Hampshire projection as of 2020-06-26
0
30
60
90
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,697 -- Deaths: 358 -- Case Mortality: 6.3% -- Daily Change: -6.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
48

49. New Jersey
184,516
15,054
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Jersey projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
0
100
200
300
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 174,356 -- Deaths: 13,075 -- Case Mortality: 7.5% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -0.9% Deaths
49

50. New Mexico
15,455
751
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Mexico projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,192 -- Deaths: 500 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +4.2% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
50

51. New York
410,559
36,348
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New York projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 390,623 -- Deaths: 34,288 -- Case Mortality: 8.8% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
51

52. North Carolina
108,580
2,135
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Carolina projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 57,337 -- Deaths: 1,290 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -0.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
52

53. North Dakota
4,521
92
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
North Dakota projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,418 -- Deaths: 78 -- Case Mortality: 2.3% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
53

54. Ohio
63,755
3,758
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Ohio projection as of 2020-06-26
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 47,658 -- Deaths: 2,773 -- Case Mortality: 5.8% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
54

55. Oklahoma
24,201
446
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oklahoma projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,948 -- Deaths: 391 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
55

56. Oregon
14,034
290
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Oregon projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,568 -- Deaths: 198 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: -1.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
56

57. Pennsylvania
97,512
7,940
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pennsylvania projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 83,771 -- Deaths: 6,558 -- Case Mortality: 7.8% -- Daily Change: +2.6% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
57

58. Rhode Island
20,544
1,760
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Rhode Island projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,700 -- Deaths: 999 -- Case Mortality: 5.6% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -1.0% Deaths
58

59. South Carolina
76,594
1,047
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Carolina projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,968 -- Deaths: 693 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
59

60. South Dakota
8,608
146
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Dakota projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,479 -- Deaths: 89 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
60

61. Tennessee
64,387
984
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Tennessee projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,842 -- Deaths: 567 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
61

62. Texas
231,963
3,556
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Texas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 131,952 -- Deaths: 2,297 -- Case Mortality: 1.7% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
62

63. Utah
35,809
304
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Utah projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,497 -- Deaths: 164 -- Case Mortality: 0.8% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
63

64. Vermont
1,425
67
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Vermont projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,212 -- Deaths: 65 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +9.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
64

65. Virginia
79,039
2,131
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Virginia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
400
800
1,200
0
40
80
120
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 59,946 -- Deaths: 1,676 -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
65

66. Washington
44,234
1,623
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Washington projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,536 -- Deaths: 1,304 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
66

67. West Virginia
3,613
109
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
West Virginia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,662 -- Deaths: 93 -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +0.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
67

68. Wisconsin
36,575
1,066
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wisconsin projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 26,228 -- Deaths: 766 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +2.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
68

69. Wyoming
2,085
28
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Wyoming projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,326 -- Deaths: 20 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
69

70. US Counties
70

71. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-06-26
NA = Inadequate data
71

72. Percent Change by Partisan Lean
-10
-5
0
5
10
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by 2016 presidential election results
Dark green line is a Friedman's supersmoother
72

73. Percent Change by Population
-10
-5
0
5
10
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Population
Percentchangeinnewcasesperday
25
50
75
Republican
Counties by Population
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
73

74. Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
0 25 50 75 100
Percent Republican
Population
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
Partisan Lean vs Population and Direction
Dark green line is a Friedman's 'super smoother'
74

75. Cases as a Percent of Population
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
10%
20%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totalcases
Total Cases as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
75

76. Deaths as a Percent of Population
0.0001%
0.001%
0.01%
0.1%
1%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Totaldeaths
Total Deaths as a Percent of County Population
Slanted lines are counties with small integer numbers of cases, green line: Friedman's 'super smoother'
76

77. Case Mortality vs. Population
0.1%
1%
10%
100%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
County Population
Casemortality
Case Mortality vs. County Population
77

78. New York City
224,846
23,667
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
New York City projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 213,699 -- Deaths: 22,332 -- Case Mortality: 10.5% -- Daily Change: -1.4% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
78

79. Westchester County, NY
35,773
1,469
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Westchester County, NY projection as of 2020-06-26
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 34,642 -- Deaths: 1,416 -- Case Mortality: 4.1% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
79

80. Bergen County, NJ
20,152
1,934
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bergen County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,167 -- Deaths: 1,716 -- Case Mortality: 9.0% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, -0.7% Deaths
80

81. Hudson County, NJ
19,148
1,390
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Hudson County, NJ projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
0
20
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,775 -- Deaths: 1,273 -- Case Mortality: 6.8% -- Daily Change: +17.6% Cases, -1.6% Deaths
81

82. King County (Seattle)
11,245
667
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
King County (Seattle) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 9,573 -- Deaths: 606 -- Case Mortality: 6.3% -- Daily Change: +3.4% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
82

83. Clark County, Washington
893
43
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Clark County, Washington projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 681 -- Deaths: 30 -- Case Mortality: 4.4% -- Daily Change: +9.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
83

84. Los Angeles
155,330
4,888
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Los Angeles projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 91,467 -- Deaths: 3,246 -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: +3.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
84

85. Bay Area
20,344
441
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Bay Area projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 13,575 -- Deaths: 357 -- Case Mortality: 2.6% -- Daily Change: +6.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
85

86. San Francisco
4,197
61
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Francisco projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
0.0
2.0
4.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,297 -- Deaths: 48 -- Case Mortality: 1.5% -- Daily Change: +8.1% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
86

87. Santa Clara and San Mateo
9,630
323
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Clara and San Mateo projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,884 -- Deaths: 259 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: +7.3% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
87

88. Alameda County
8,460
186
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Alameda County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,382 -- Deaths: 128 -- Case Mortality: 2.4% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
88

89. San Luis Obispo, California
835
1
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Luis Obispo, California projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 489 -- Deaths: 1 -- Case Mortality: 0.2% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
89

90. Fresno, California
9,547
200
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Fresno, California projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 4,053 -- Deaths: 71 -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +6.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
90

91. Santa Barbara County
4,327
93
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Santa Barbara County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,631 -- Deaths: 28 -- Case Mortality: 1.1% -- Daily Change: +1.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
91

92. Merced County
2,223
18
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Merced County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
60
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 791 -- Deaths: 11 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +7.0% Cases, +0.2% Deaths
92

93. Yolo County
686
24
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Yolo County projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 408 -- Deaths: 24 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
93

94. San Diego County
18,810
481
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
San Diego County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
0
10
20
30
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,961 -- Deaths: 352 -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +5.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
94

95. Imperial County
6,884
333
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Imperial County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,744 -- Deaths: 73 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +9.8% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
95

96. Multnomah County (Portland)
3,560
78
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Multnomah County (Portland) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,967 -- Deaths: 68 -- Case Mortality: 3.5% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
96

97. Utah County
6,745
34
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Utah County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
30
60
90
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,541 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 0.6% -- Daily Change: +2.4% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
97

98. Summit County, Utah
474
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Summit County, Utah projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 474 -- Deaths: NA -- Case Mortality: NA% -- Daily Change: +0.1% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
98

99. De Soto Parish, Louisiana
451
20
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
De Soto Parish, Louisiana projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 327 -- Deaths: 18 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -9.6% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
99

100. Dallas, Texas
32,194
515
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Dallas, Texas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,135 -- Deaths: 328 -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +1.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
100

101. Collin Texas
5,011
48
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Collin Texas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
25
50
75
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,449 -- Deaths: 39 -- Case Mortality: 1.6% -- Daily Change: -0.4% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
101

102. Harris County, Texas
49,731
596
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Harris County, Texas projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
0
50
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 25,786 -- Deaths: 346 -- Case Mortality: 1.3% -- Daily Change: +10.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
102

103. Tulsa County, Oklahoma
8,929
84
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tulsa County, Oklahoma projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
250
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,949 -- Deaths: 66 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: +6.0% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
103

104. McLean County, Illinois
306
13
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
McLean County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 254 -- Deaths: 13 -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: -2.2% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
104

105. Cook County, Illinois
98,808
5,913
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cook County, Illinois projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 88,650 -- Deaths: 4,500 -- Case Mortality: 5.1% -- Daily Change: +1.8% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
105

106. Suffolk County (Boston)
20,819
1,119
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Suffolk County (Boston) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 19,664 -- Deaths: 990 -- Case Mortality: 5.0% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
106

107. Polk County, Iowa
7,475
244
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Polk County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,680 -- Deaths: 171 -- Case Mortality: 3.0% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
107

108. Johnson County, Iowa
1,212
9
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Johnson County, Iowa projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10
20
30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 884 -- Deaths: 9 -- Case Mortality: 1.0% -- Daily Change: +9.4% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
108

109. Erie County, New York
8,320
668
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Erie County, New York projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
200
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,138 -- Deaths: 569 -- Case Mortality: 8.0% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
109

110. Oakland County, Michigan
13,123
1,142
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Oakland County, Michigan projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 11,826 -- Deaths: 1,084 -- Case Mortality: 9.2% -- Daily Change: -4.3% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
110

111. St. Louis (City)
2,674
210
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (City) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
60
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 2,252 -- Deaths: 151 -- Case Mortality: 6.7% -- Daily Change: +11.3% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
111

112. St. Louis (County)
7,222
852
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
St. Louis (County) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,988 -- Deaths: 571 -- Case Mortality: 9.5% -- Daily Change: +5.5% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
112

113. Baltimore (City)
9,278
439
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Baltimore (City) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,258 -- Deaths: 327 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +0.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
113

114. Durham County
6,588
99
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Durham County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
25
50
75
100
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 3,319 -- Deaths: 60 -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: -6.2% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
114

115. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
8,042
572
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
30
60
90
120
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,111 -- Deaths: 346 -- Case Mortality: 5.7% -- Daily Change: +7.4% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
115

116. Wayne County (Detroit)
24,096
2,842
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Wayne County (Detroit) projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,453 -- Deaths: 2,703 -- Case Mortality: 12.0% -- Daily Change: +5.2% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
116

117. Miami-Dade
48,150
1,332
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Miami-Dade projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
800
0
20
40
60
80
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 28,664 -- Deaths: 935 -- Case Mortality: 3.3% -- Daily Change: +4.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
117

118. Maricopa County
119,161
1,316
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Maricopa County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 37,135 -- Deaths: 694 -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
118

119. Denver County
7,986
435
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Denver County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
150
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 6,835 -- Deaths: 369 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +1.5% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
119

120. Arapahoe County
5,719
376
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Arapahoe County projection as of 2020-06-26
0
50
100
0.0
5.0
10.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,066 -- Deaths: 342 -- Case Mortality: 6.8% -- Daily Change: +4.7% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
120

121. Montrose County
230
12
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Montrose County projection as of 2020-06-26
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 202 -- Deaths: 12 -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
121

122. International
122

123. Italy
246,662
36,524
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Italy projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
0
200
400
600
800
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 239,706 -- Deaths: 34,678 -- Case Mortality: 14.5% -- Daily Change: +3.7% Cases, -1.5% Deaths
123

124. Spain
256,782
28,752
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Spain projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 247,486 -- Deaths: 28,752 -- Case Mortality: 11.6% -- Daily Change: -1.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
124

125. Portugal
51,026
1,689
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Portugal projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 40,415 -- Deaths: 1,549 -- Case Mortality: 3.8% -- Daily Change: -1.1% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
125

126. France
207,309
30,981
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
France projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 197,885 -- Deaths: 29,755 -- Case Mortality: 15.0% -- Daily Change: -8.7% Cases, -0.4% Deaths
126

127. Germany
204,495
9,474
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Germany projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 193,371 -- Deaths: 8,940 -- Case Mortality: 4.6% -- Daily Change: -1.8% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
127

128. Switzerland
32,037
2,041
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Switzerland projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
0
25
50
75
100
125
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 31,428 -- Deaths: 1,958 -- Case Mortality: 6.2% -- Daily Change: +5.3% Cases, -0.8% Deaths
128

129. Austria
18,333
745
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Austria projection as of 2020-06-26
0
250
500
750
0
25
50
75
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 17,477 -- Deaths: 698 -- Case Mortality: 4.0% -- Daily Change: -0.5% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
129

130. Sweden
109,458
6,551
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Sweden projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 63,890 -- Deaths: 5,230 -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
130

131. Netherlands
54,398
6,303
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Netherlands projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
0
50
100
150
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 50,122 -- Deaths: 6,119 -- Case Mortality: 12.2% -- Daily Change: -3.5% Cases, -0.2% Deaths
131

132. United Kingdom
348,107
49,025
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
United Kingdom projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
0
250
500
750
1,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 309,455 -- Deaths: 43,314 -- Case Mortality: 14.0% -- Daily Change: -3.0% Cases, -0.3% Deaths
132

133. Iceland
1,858
10
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iceland projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,830 -- Deaths: 10 -- Case Mortality: 0.5% -- Daily Change: +0.3% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
133

134. Israel
30,015
335
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Israel projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 22,400 -- Deaths: 309 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +5.0% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
134

135. Canada
117,149
10,243
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Canada projection as of 2020-06-26
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
50
100
150
200
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 104,463 -- Deaths: 8,567 -- Case Mortality: 8.2% -- Daily Change: -1.2% Cases, -0.5% Deaths
135

136. Australia
8,011
104
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Australia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
100
200
300
400
0
10
20
30
40
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 7,595 -- Deaths: 104 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +5.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
136

137. New Zealand
1,536
22
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
New Zealand projection as of 2020-06-26
0
20
40
60
80
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,520 -- Deaths: 22 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: +4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
137

138. China
85,482
4,643
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
China projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,000
4,000
0
200
400
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 84,701 -- Deaths: 4,641 -- Case Mortality: 5.5% -- Daily Change: -2.8% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
138

139. South Korea
13,937
300
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Korea projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 12,602 -- Deaths: 282 -- Case Mortality: 2.2% -- Daily Change: -3.2% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
139

140. Singapore
52,451
29
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Singapore projection as of 2020-06-26
0
300
600
900
0
30
60
90
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 42,736 -- Deaths: 26 -- Case Mortality: 0.1% -- Daily Change: -2.7% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
140

141. Japan
19,577
1,072
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan projection as of 2020-06-26
0
200
400
600
0
20
40
60
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 18,055 -- Deaths: 971 -- Case Mortality: 5.4% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
141

142. South Africa
356,355
11,521
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
South Africa projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 118,375 -- Deaths: 2,292 -- Case Mortality: 1.9% -- Daily Change: +4.9% Cases, +0.0% Deaths
142

143. Iran
303,537
14,783
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Iran projection as of 2020-06-26
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
0
100
200
300
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 215,096 -- Deaths: 10,130 -- Case Mortality: 4.7% -- Daily Change: -0.1% Cases, +0.1% Deaths
143

144. Brazil
2,366,935
122,769
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Brazil projection as of 2020-06-26
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,228,114 -- Deaths: 54,971 -- Case Mortality: 4.5% -- Daily Change: +1.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
144

145. Russia
946,143
19,334
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Russia projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 613,148 -- Deaths: 8,594 -- Case Mortality: 1.4% -- Daily Change: -0.7% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
145

146. India
1,098,068
78,041
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
India projection as of 2020-06-26
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 490,401 -- Deaths: 15,301 -- Case Mortality: 3.1% -- Daily Change: +2.9% Cases, -0.1% Deaths
146

147. Pakistan
417,266
15,387
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Pakistan projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
0
200
400
600
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 195,745 -- Deaths: 3,962 -- Case Mortality: 2.0% -- Daily Change: -4.5% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
147

148. Mexico
389,859
77,598
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Mexico projection as of 2020-06-26
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
0
250
500
750
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 202,951 -- Deaths: 25,060 -- Case Mortality: 12.3% -- Daily Change: +2.0% Cases, +0.3% Deaths
148

149. Case Mortality vs. Testing
BHR
LUX
ISL
DNK
LTU
RUS
QAT
PRT
BLR
ISR
USA
KWT
AUS
ITA
IRL
MDV
EST
BEL
NZL
LVA
KAZ
ESP
GBR
CAN
AUT
DEU
SGP
CHE
NOR
CHLSRB
CZE
SVN
FIN
SAU
SWE
SVK
TUR
POL
ROU
NLD
GRC
HUN
PANZAF
KORSLV
MYS
HRV
BGRIRN
URY
MAR
CUB
UKR
COL
RWA
GHA
PRY
ARG
PER
THA
ECU
TUN
BOLIND
PAK
CRI
PHL
NPL
SENBGD
MEX
JPN
UGA
TWN
KEN
VNM
BRA
ETH
ZWE
IDN
MMR
NGA
0
5
10
15
0 10 20 30
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-06-26
149