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The Way Forward
Planning for the 21st Century
               1




 HOW COLUMBIA COULD REPRESENT
     THE FUTURE OF AMERICA




            11-10-10
America confronting a Great Reset
                          2




 ―Economic systems do not exist in the abstract;
 they are embedded within the geographic fabric of the
 society – the way land is used, the locations of homes
 and businesses, the infrastructure that ties people,
 places and commerce together . . . A reconfiguration
 of this economic landscape is the real distinguishing
 characteristic of a Great Reset.‖

                              ~ Richard Florida
A Comprehensive Plan must address our
       huge Challenges of Today
                                         3


   Identify the top Global & National Trends
   Restore Prosperity
   Transform/Reposition our Community for the
    realities of 21st C & the Next Economy
   Next American Economy must be very different
             Innovation Fueled
             Export Oriented
             Low Carbon
             Metro Led
             Entrepreneurially driven

Brookings
Four General Forces for the 21st C
                                    4

 Uncertainty & volatility: frequent, rapid, unexpected
   change; innovations & disruptions


 Complexity: rapid flow of people, money & ideas; more choices ,
   more competition; more information to more people about more things


 Diversity: broader geographic scope comes greater variety of
   people & organization in culture, community, nation, & gender or race


 Transparency & responsibility: digital tools with
   higher expectations, higher standards to accomplish the public agenda

Super Corps
5

Vanguard
                 Competitive differences
Organizations    Public accountability via end-to-
                    end responsibility
The                Rationale for thinking long-term
                   Common vocabulary & guidance
Strategic
                    for consistent decisions
Value              Talent magnets & motivation
of                  machines
Values &           ―Human‖ control systems –peer
                    review & a self-control system
Principles
Real Family Values
    9 progressive policies to support our families


                          6

      SAFEGUARD OUR HOMES -- CREATE JOBS
    GIVE KIDS A BREAK –- BALANCE WORK & LIFE
PROTECT VULNERABLE FAMILY MEMBERS -- TAX FAIRLY
   PROTECT OUR HEALTH -- PROTECT OUR FUTURE
   SUPPORT MARRIAGE -– SAFEGUARD OUR HOMES
Transformational Enterprises:
        New Leadership for the Future
                            7

 Make values & vision part of the daily conversation
 See your work as part of the daily conversation
 Stress innovation: problems, solutions & ideas
 Think in terms of networks
 Create routines, consistent processes
 Stress projects over position/title; help people have fun
 Treat employees as though they were volunteers
 Cultivate empathy & understand power of emotions
 Allocate time for external service & connect to values
Global forces that will restructure the
 world economy for the foreseeable future
                                8



 The great rebalancing emerging-market countries
  contribute to growth with middle class growth & innovation
 The productivity imperative to power continued
  economic growth through innovation
 The global grid seeding new business models &
  accelerating the pace of innovation
 Pricing the planet resource productivity, substantial
  clean-tech industries & regulatory initiatives
 The market state governments under pressure to
  maintain social stability in an increasingly globalized world
McKinsey
5 Phenomena of the Century (so far)
                                          9


  1.      Widespread recognition of how industry clusters work
          & how they further an urban economy

  2.      Richard Florida’s publishing of ―Rise of the Creative
          Class”- attract & retain talent & 21st C jobs

  3.      Rise of Asian cities as global commercial,
          manufacturing and financial hubs

  4.      The Green Revolution – the shift to more sustainable urban
          construction & sustainable design

  5.      Re-birth of urban-style living – 21st C lifestyles
          (green, more women working, gas prices, & cost of living )


All About Cities
5 Big Trends will shape the future decade:
                                  10

1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US & Europe falling, Asia
rising)

2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y
rising)

3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social
media-ization of business, health, education, politics)

4- Urbanization of world’s population

5- Global warming (winners & losers in the restructuring of
the global economy)
Shaping Tomorrow
11

               Can’t afford what was passed as the
Restoring         American Dream
Prosperity       Cannot run up debt equal to 122% of
The               earnings
                 Cheaper places to live, high quality of
  Scary           life, livability
      Truth      Long time before businesses,
                  households, & government treasuries
 about the
                  shake off the effects
Great            In midst of re-casting the new economy
  Recession      People will follow quality of living
                 Jobs will follow talented people
                 Cities with low cost of living will win
We have long assumed that…
                                 12

      We would always enjoy unlimited supplies of cheap oil.

      We could always build our way out of congestion.

      Places and buildings are disposable.

      Americans with financial choices would never give up their
     cars or their backyards.

      Consumption is good.

      Being cheap was far more important than anything else we
     could name.

ceosforcities
We have long assumed that… continued
                                 13


  We could always find new sources of labor to get the job done.

  Our kids would grow up and stay close to home.

  People are essentially locked in place. Only companies & the
 very rich were mobile.

  When people do move, they move for jobs.

  Homogeneity has no downside.

  People would never return to old, decaying, vacant inner cities.
 And who cared anyway? Core cities no longer mattered.
The new realities
                    look more like this:
                                    14



 Gas is expensive and predicted to get more so – sooner than later.
 We can’t build enough highways fast enough to significantly reduce
time spent in traffic.
 Places & buildings matter, & it’s important to get them right the first
time.
 Transit ridership is at its highest since the car became popular.
empty nesters are downsizing as fast as they can, to find homes
they can ―lock & leave‖
 Labor, which for 40 years has been plentiful thanks to boomers,
will tighten as boomers retire; there are no more college grads
or women to balloon the labor force.
The new realities
              look more like this: continued
                                        15


 It’s not just the rich who are mobile.
Young people are far more mobile than we ever imagined.
The more educated they are, the more mobile they are.
 It’s not just about jobs anymore, and it is sure not about cheap.
64% of college-educated young adults say first they choose the city they want to
live in, then they look for a job.
 No one wants to live in our core cities, right? Wrong.
Young adults – that coveted labor force -- are now 30% more likely to live
within a 3-mile radius of the central business district .

 People in creative occupations are 53% more likely to live in close-in
neighborhoods. Empty nesters are also headed downtown.
 The old way of thinking?... The strength of core cities doesn’t matter to the
region. We can leave the city to decline & the rest of the region will be fine.
A look at where we’re headed in the next decade . . .
                                16

                Climate change models
                Energy options
                Personalized medicine
                The housing market
                Mobile technology
                Mass transit
                Food & nutrition
                In the home: Green
                Commercial & real estate
                Education & technology

The Republic
We must have strong Cities
                 to have a strong America
                              17



   • Access to opportunity in the form of education & jobs,
   + breaking our dependence on oil

   • Reducing carbon emissions

   • Reversing the growing problem of obesity and

   • Demonstrating that the American dream works best

   • When we take full advantage of our diversity.


ceosforcities
Renewed prosperity hinges on . . .
                                    18

 The ―spatial fix‖—the creation of new development
  patterns, new ways of living & working, & new economic landscapes –
  expand space & intensify our use
 More massive & more intensive geographic pattern—the mega-
  region
 Infrastructure that can undergird another round of growth &
  development - a better & faster information highway, high-speed
  rail
 Make existing infrastructure far more efficient by using
  information technology to create ―smart‖ grids &
  highways
 A new set of design principles to spark 21st economies,
  communities, societies, & ignite a more authentic, enduring prosperity
 Denser, walkable, pedestrian-friendly areas with street fronts
  & outdoor markets, cafes, flowers, small public parks, green spaces
Communities need to be very, very good at
       doing four19key things:

 Developing, attracting & retaining talent

 Connecting their citizens to opportunity, their city to
the region & their region to the global economy

 Understanding what makes their community
distinctive & having the confidence to capitalize on it

 Developing the capacity for innovation within
government & within the broader community
Columbia needs to excel in areas most
      critical to urban success:
                    20

 The Talented City
     Developing, maximizing, attracting & retaining talent
 The Innovative City
     Fostering innovation & entrepreneurship
 The Connected City
     Fostering connections that link people with ideas to
     talent, capital & markets; cities to regions; &
     regions to the global economy
 The Distinctive City
     Capitalizing on local differences to build local economic
     opportunity
5 big (very big) ambitions that, together,
Columbia can define a new American Dream:
                             21


 Opportunity: We will develop (& attract) all of our
  talent & put all of our talent to work
 Livability: We will all have access to beauty & nature
 every day
 Connectivity: We can meet our daily needs without
 owning a car
 Community: We can all participate in a robust public
 life
 Optimism: We believe that the future can be better for
 each of us & all of us
22

10 Ways to      1. More farms, less agribusiness
Solve the Job
                2. More repair, fewer product
Problem
                3. More recycling, less mining

                4. More renovations, less construction
Imagine a no-
holds-barred    5. More restoration, less destruction
―summit‖        6. More bike paths, fewer highways
that comes
up with ideas   7. More local businesses, fewer megastores

to solve both   8. More dishwashing, fewer throw-aways
our job &
                9. More education, less advertising
environment
al problems     10. More clean energy, less fossil fuel
4 concrete approaches for moving
            Columbia forward:
                     23


  • Building the infrastructure for 21st century jobs
& innovation through investments in broadband
Internet, cell service, & transportation networks
  • Providing the capital to allow businesses to grow
through tax incentives, micro-finance programs &
expanding the seed capital fund
  • Investing in education, universities & tech
transfer programs to bring ideas from the classroom to
the global marketplace
  • Improving the culture in Columbia to stimulate
entrepreneurship by making government more
efficient, responsive & transparent (Smart Systems)
Challenge of Providing Services to the Public
                     24
25


America’s         Energy conservation
Challenge
                  Green Building
Now
is the time       Transit-oriented
                  development
to invest in
affordability     Urban regeneration
      &
sustainability    Renewable energy
26

              Graying of America
Columbia’s
Challenges       Browning of America

                 Rise of the single person
For the          households

  21st           Aging infrastructure
Century
                 Aging suburbs

                 Climate change

                 Urban sprawl
27


               A True Reset transforms into simply the way we
The Great       innovate & produce but also ushers in a whole
Reset           new economic landscape. As it takes shape
                around new infrastructure & systems of
                transportation, it gives rise to new housing
                patterns, realigning where & how we live &
                work. Eventually it ushers in a whole new way of
a whole new     life . . .
economic
landscape      Great Resets are defined not just by innovation
                but by massive movements of people. . . . These
                are times when talent flows out of some places &
and             into others. . . . These Talent Resets thus shift the
                balance of power among cities & regions as well as
massive         among nations. Locations rise or fall based on
movements       their ability to attract, retain & productively use
                talent of all sorts – from brilliant innovators to
of people       unskilled laborers.
                                               ~ Richard Florida
How will Columbia address
                The Great Reset . . .
                                   28


 Improvements in efficiency & productivity, (IBM Smart City) & by
  the waves of innovation (―creative destruction‖)

 Government should be proposing policies that will help to create a
  new geography & a new way of life to sustain & support it

 As the new economy emerges, a new geography & new
  infrastructure of living & working must come into being

 Encourage a freer flow of ideas; encourage universities to turn new
  discoveries into companies that can grow & create jobs; & actively
  enable & attract entrepreneurs

 Our education/workforce training systems need more dynamic
  approach to encourage m0re hands-on, interactive creativity
The Great Reset continued . . .
                                      29

 Clusters of diverse creative businesses are
 increasingly important for creative industries with success
 dependent upon
    soft (networking, knowledge, human capital, sense of identity, digital
     networking, advanced workspace design, urban screens, other kinds of
     digital place-making, - all of which build on the fluid, face-to-face
     interaction of physical space. ) &
    hard infrastructure
 Deep structural reforms to improve its supply side.
  The quality of its financial sector, its physical
infrastructure, as well as its human capital, all need
serious economic & politically difficult upgrades
Federal Policy needs to encourage . . .
                              30

 less home ownership
 greater density of development
 construction of smaller & more low-energy houses
 free up capital that can be invested in the skill
  development, technology development, business
  innovation & economic structures
 eliminate/cap mortgage interest tax deduction & other
  massive federal subsidies (secondary mortgage market,
  road construction & infrastructure) that undergird
  sprawling, economically inefficient, utterly
  wasteful suburban & exurban development
 intense concentration in urban centers is key to
  buoyant modern economies
Cities need to plan for a Livable
  Community and a Healthy Community
                              31

 Columbia plans for future growth by . . .
      identifying priority programs, policies, &
strategies to improve the health* of Columbians
while advancing the goals of protecting natural
resources & agricultural lands, increasing the
availability of affordable housing, improving
infrastructure systems, promoting public health,
planning sustainable communities, improving water
quality, & meeting the state’s climate change goals.

* A ―Health in All Policies‖ Mindset (―people-centric‖)
Columbia plans by considering . . .
                             32

 Need to find our way back to some of the design
  principles of the traditional American city with a
  much broader spectrum of housing opportunities
 Suburban sprawl came about as a result of two major
  subsidies: interstate system & the single-home mortgage
  deduction
 Importance of creating pedestrian-friendly & ecologically
  sound communities, environments that that promote a
  sense of connectedness & place
 To make the design of buildings & infrastructure create a
  sense of place, environmentally, culturally & socially
Top ten trends shaping the future of
        America's communities
                   33

1. Placemaking - around the globe
2. Collaboration - key to making change
3. Greenplace - revitalization fights climate change
4. Placemaking - vibrant travel destinations
5. Libraries - new town squares
6. How cities stay lively 12 months a year
7. The Power of 10 leverages community assets
8. Public markets - a leg up in a down economy
9. The rise of community-based transportation planning
10. New developments create innovative models for
destinations
A Healthy Community provides for the
  following through all stages of life:
                       34



1. Meets basic needs of all


2. Quality & sustainability of environment


3. Adequate levels of economic, social
  development

4. Health and social equity
1. Meets basic needs of all
                                 35

 Safe, sustainable, accessible & affordable transportation
    options
   Affordable, accessible & nutritious foods
   Affordable, high quality, socially integrated & location-
    efficient housing
   Affordable, accessible & high quality health care
   Complete and livable communities including affordable &
    high quality schools, parks & recreational facilities, child
    care, libraries, financial services & other daily needs
   Access to affordable & safe opportunities for physical
    activity
2. Quality and sustainability of environment
                          36


  Clean air, soil and water, & environments free of
   excessive noise

  Tobacco & smoke free


  Green & open spaces, including agricultural lands
   Minimized toxics, GHG emissions & waste

  Affordable & sustainable energy use
3. Adequate levels of economic, social
              development
                         37



 Living wage, safe & healthy job opportunities
 for all

 Support for healthy development of children
 & adolescents

 Opportunities for high quality & accessible
 education
4. Health and social equity
                         38


 Social relationships that are supportive &
 respectful

 Robust social & civic engagement


 Socially cohesive & supportive relationships,
 families, homes & neighborhoods

 Safe communities, free of crime & violence
Building Livable Communities:
               Creating a Common Agenda
                                39



 Livability has become the framework for Congress,
   our administration, & our federal agencies to invest in
   the quality of life, economic competitiveness, & recovery
   of the American community

 HUD, DOT, & EPA & Partners for Livable
   Communities will be engaging the full range of
   livability values: transportation, housing, & amenities:
   arts, cultural heritage, & design.

 This blending of strategies has created a livability tool
   kit that city, state, & national leaders can use to revitalize
   the American community.
Brookings & EPA
Building Livable Communities:
 Creating a Common Agenda
               40




 Provide transportation choices
 Promote equitable, affordable housing
 Increase economic competitiveness
 Support existing communities
 Leverage federal investment
 Value communities & neighborhoods
Building Livable Communities
                 41




Creating a better 21st century
    means choosing to stop living
        in the 20th century.
42


The New     Time is market in New Economy

Economy
            Quality is the goal


The         Flexibility is the new standard
features
of the      Knowledge is the new raw material

New
Economy     Networks provide collaborative
            advantage
The New Economy values:
                                 43
• Economic regions, which provide a habitat for clustering

• Distinctive quality of life, which attracts knowledge workers

• Vital centers, which offer lively amenities & opportunities for
       Interaction

• Choice for living & working, which acknowledges increasing
      diversity of career & life paths

• Speed & adaptability, which allow quick access to decisions
      & resources

• The natural environment as an important & compatible
      element of community.
The Economy of the Future will have the
       following characteristics:
                                  44

 Balance - investment & employment, integrated clusters


 Energy - maximizes conservation & alternative energy sources


 Entrepreneurship – climate of ed, training, research & finance


 International – integrated into world economy using our assets


 Quality of Life – progressive planning & smart investment


 Quality Work Force – educated, trained & adaptable to needs


 Sustainable – built upon evolution of our strength for future gen


 Technology – encourage innovation & create tech applications
Ideas Economy: Human Potential
                           45

Global challenge: How do we educate billions of
new people in the coming decades—& manage their
successful entry into the global economy‖ —in age of
high unemployment & aging demographics?

  bringing together the smartest minds from government,
   academia & business
  young workers demanding entirely new work
   environments
  aging population that requires heavy resources
  the nature of work & talent development must evolve
   dramatically
Five key trends for local
       Economic Development in the 2010s
                            46

   The arts as engines for the creative & experience
      economies
     The growth of "free agent" nation
     Ethnic minority/neighborhood
      communities as emerging markets
     Green industries replacing gray industries
     Transnational communities as market
      expanders, industry clusters
     Entrepreneurs & homepreneurs, hobbypreneurs

Leonardo Vazquez. AICP/PP
The Future of Work is about . . .
                          47

1) Work becomes more about meaning & impact than
repeatable tasks
2) 9 to 5 is so yesterday
3) Global sourcing goes on steroids enabling third world
opportunity and growth
4) Free Agent Nation becomes a reality
5) Projects are more important than jobs
6) Teams assemble and reassemble based on the job to be
done
7) Changing nature of work transforms our daily commute
& transportation systems
The Future of Work . . . continued
                            48

8) Industrial era organizations give way to purposeful
networks
9) Everything we think & know about professions will
change
10) Education is no longer K-16 but a life long commitment
11) Workforce & economic development are transformed
become indistinguishable
12) Work becomes more self organized & less
institutionally driven
13) Job titles are more about what you can do than
meaningless status monikers
The Future of Work . . . continued
                          49



14) Compensation is about performance outcomes not
seniority
15) Entrepreneurship becomes democratized & the key
economic driver
16) Work and social become indistinguishable
17) Getting better faster is imperative
18) Art & design become integral to work & value creation
19) Making things becomes important & interesting again
20) Passion drives meaningful work
50

Building
               Where & how people want to live
Future
               Highly-sensitive & inter-related
Housing           system with high quality amenities
                 Effectiveness of development &
                  management at a neighborhood level
Key Drivers      More adaptable & responsive to
                  change
for the          Innovation in the construction to be
                  encouraged
21st             Greater understanding of market, need
                  & demand, economic prospects &
Century           demographics is required
City             Where should strategic responsibility
                  lie for planning & housing
                 Review of policy is required with a long
                  term view
51
                 Changing Household Types
 Future           Growth in non-traditional-family households
                  Changing face of renters and owners
 Housing
                 Impact of Immigration
                   When, where and how immigrants live
 Demographic
 changes
                 Impact of Race/Ethnicity
 driving new
                 Implications for Different
 Residential     Housing Types
 Development

                 Relationship to Employment
                 Patterns

Brookings
52

              The growth is in non-traditional-
Future        family households
Housing          Singles
                 Unmarried couples or childless couples

Changing         Roommates
                 Single parents
Household
              Non-traditional-family
Types         households
                 Willing to pioneer new areas
                 Less concerned about school districts
                 Looking to balance price and lifestyle
              Married renters & single buyers
53

               Maturing Boomers:
Housing
                  Luxury homes/condos and some rentals
Summary:
                  More affluent demand top-flight amenities
                   and services
               GenX not having children yet, but
Demographic    soon
Changes           Moving into ownership
Driving        Echo Boom generation:
New               Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008
Residential       Less affluent than GenX, doubling up,
Development        living with parents
What will Columbia’s economy, landscape &
infrastructure look like to compete in 21st C?
                       54

21st Century cities are being held accountable to
increasingly complex performance benchmarks.
Competition around metrics like :
 workforce readiness
 emission reductions
 mobility indices
 quality of life
 public health, &
 geopolitical risk
are driving economic development in the
international marketplace
By asking the key questions:
                             55
1) Demographic Growth: Demographics will drive
unprecedented demand for housing, jobs & public services.
How will Columbia’s demographics change in a global
economy?

2) Competitiveness: Seventy percent of U.S. economic
output is located in metro regions. What should our
community be doing to nurture economic clusters & embrace
innovation?

Can we really just count on MU, state government, retail,
banking & insurance companies to carry our economic
prosperity into the future ?
The key questions . . .       Continued
                            56

3) Social Inclusion: What is necessary to care, train, &
invest in citizens?
How do social inclusion goals produce land use strategies?

4) The 2050 Good Life: How do shifting consumer
preferences influence real estate products, mix of
neighborhood uses & investment patterns?

How do we promote quality development ―up‖ & not just
further out from the urban center ?

How do we help turn our suburban communities into
successful 21st Century urban centers?
By writing a 21st C Comprehensive Plan
      for Columbia that will work
                           57

I.   How We Live (Livability)
A.   Neighborhoods and Housing
B.   Historic Preservation
C.   Green Infrastructure: Open Space, Parks & Rec
D.   Health & Human Services

II. How We Prosper (Opportunity)
A. Sustaining and Expanding the Economy
B. Building equity through Education, Job Training &
Entrepreneurial Resources
A 21st C Comprehensive Plan . . .                         Continued
                                       58

III. Sustainable Systems
A. Community Facilities, Services & Infrastructure
B. Transportation
C. Resilience - Living with Water & Natural Hazards
D. Environmental Quality
Note: Brookings Institute has released (4/2010) 39 policies -
rebuilding physical assets to reorganizing work-force supports to collaborating
at the regional scale - that can help strengthen its footing in an export-oriented,
low-carbon & innovation-fueled world for communities to follow.

We need for smarter investments from the public & private sectors
& how a shift to a low-carbon economy is vital for maintaining the country’s
competitiveness.
And by Investing in . . .
                            59

 Residents
 Entrepreneurs
 Economic Strengths
 Next Generation Infrastructure
      . . . and Counting What Matters:
   Business Income
   Job Growth
   Business Start-ups & Closures
   Performance of our K–12 & Higher Education Systems
   Opportunity for all
How will Columbia compete
in the 21st Century? By . . .
              60

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The way forward

  • 1. The Way Forward Planning for the 21st Century 1 HOW COLUMBIA COULD REPRESENT THE FUTURE OF AMERICA 11-10-10
  • 2. America confronting a Great Reset 2 ―Economic systems do not exist in the abstract; they are embedded within the geographic fabric of the society – the way land is used, the locations of homes and businesses, the infrastructure that ties people, places and commerce together . . . A reconfiguration of this economic landscape is the real distinguishing characteristic of a Great Reset.‖ ~ Richard Florida
  • 3. A Comprehensive Plan must address our huge Challenges of Today 3  Identify the top Global & National Trends  Restore Prosperity  Transform/Reposition our Community for the realities of 21st C & the Next Economy  Next American Economy must be very different  Innovation Fueled  Export Oriented  Low Carbon  Metro Led  Entrepreneurially driven Brookings
  • 4. Four General Forces for the 21st C 4  Uncertainty & volatility: frequent, rapid, unexpected change; innovations & disruptions  Complexity: rapid flow of people, money & ideas; more choices , more competition; more information to more people about more things  Diversity: broader geographic scope comes greater variety of people & organization in culture, community, nation, & gender or race  Transparency & responsibility: digital tools with higher expectations, higher standards to accomplish the public agenda Super Corps
  • 5. 5 Vanguard  Competitive differences Organizations  Public accountability via end-to- end responsibility The  Rationale for thinking long-term  Common vocabulary & guidance Strategic for consistent decisions Value  Talent magnets & motivation of machines Values &  ―Human‖ control systems –peer review & a self-control system Principles
  • 6. Real Family Values 9 progressive policies to support our families 6 SAFEGUARD OUR HOMES -- CREATE JOBS GIVE KIDS A BREAK –- BALANCE WORK & LIFE PROTECT VULNERABLE FAMILY MEMBERS -- TAX FAIRLY PROTECT OUR HEALTH -- PROTECT OUR FUTURE SUPPORT MARRIAGE -– SAFEGUARD OUR HOMES
  • 7. Transformational Enterprises: New Leadership for the Future 7  Make values & vision part of the daily conversation  See your work as part of the daily conversation  Stress innovation: problems, solutions & ideas  Think in terms of networks  Create routines, consistent processes  Stress projects over position/title; help people have fun  Treat employees as though they were volunteers  Cultivate empathy & understand power of emotions  Allocate time for external service & connect to values
  • 8. Global forces that will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future 8  The great rebalancing emerging-market countries contribute to growth with middle class growth & innovation  The productivity imperative to power continued economic growth through innovation  The global grid seeding new business models & accelerating the pace of innovation  Pricing the planet resource productivity, substantial clean-tech industries & regulatory initiatives  The market state governments under pressure to maintain social stability in an increasingly globalized world McKinsey
  • 9. 5 Phenomena of the Century (so far) 9 1. Widespread recognition of how industry clusters work & how they further an urban economy 2. Richard Florida’s publishing of ―Rise of the Creative Class”- attract & retain talent & 21st C jobs 3. Rise of Asian cities as global commercial, manufacturing and financial hubs 4. The Green Revolution – the shift to more sustainable urban construction & sustainable design 5. Re-birth of urban-style living – 21st C lifestyles (green, more women working, gas prices, & cost of living ) All About Cities
  • 10. 5 Big Trends will shape the future decade: 10 1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US & Europe falling, Asia rising) 2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y rising) 3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social media-ization of business, health, education, politics) 4- Urbanization of world’s population 5- Global warming (winners & losers in the restructuring of the global economy) Shaping Tomorrow
  • 11. 11  Can’t afford what was passed as the Restoring American Dream Prosperity  Cannot run up debt equal to 122% of The earnings  Cheaper places to live, high quality of Scary life, livability Truth  Long time before businesses, households, & government treasuries about the shake off the effects Great  In midst of re-casting the new economy Recession  People will follow quality of living  Jobs will follow talented people  Cities with low cost of living will win
  • 12. We have long assumed that… 12  We would always enjoy unlimited supplies of cheap oil.  We could always build our way out of congestion.  Places and buildings are disposable.  Americans with financial choices would never give up their cars or their backyards.  Consumption is good.  Being cheap was far more important than anything else we could name. ceosforcities
  • 13. We have long assumed that… continued 13  We could always find new sources of labor to get the job done.  Our kids would grow up and stay close to home.  People are essentially locked in place. Only companies & the very rich were mobile.  When people do move, they move for jobs.  Homogeneity has no downside.  People would never return to old, decaying, vacant inner cities. And who cared anyway? Core cities no longer mattered.
  • 14. The new realities look more like this: 14  Gas is expensive and predicted to get more so – sooner than later.  We can’t build enough highways fast enough to significantly reduce time spent in traffic.  Places & buildings matter, & it’s important to get them right the first time.  Transit ridership is at its highest since the car became popular. empty nesters are downsizing as fast as they can, to find homes they can ―lock & leave‖  Labor, which for 40 years has been plentiful thanks to boomers, will tighten as boomers retire; there are no more college grads or women to balloon the labor force.
  • 15. The new realities look more like this: continued 15  It’s not just the rich who are mobile. Young people are far more mobile than we ever imagined. The more educated they are, the more mobile they are.  It’s not just about jobs anymore, and it is sure not about cheap. 64% of college-educated young adults say first they choose the city they want to live in, then they look for a job.  No one wants to live in our core cities, right? Wrong. Young adults – that coveted labor force -- are now 30% more likely to live within a 3-mile radius of the central business district .  People in creative occupations are 53% more likely to live in close-in neighborhoods. Empty nesters are also headed downtown.  The old way of thinking?... The strength of core cities doesn’t matter to the region. We can leave the city to decline & the rest of the region will be fine.
  • 16. A look at where we’re headed in the next decade . . . 16  Climate change models  Energy options  Personalized medicine  The housing market  Mobile technology  Mass transit  Food & nutrition  In the home: Green  Commercial & real estate  Education & technology The Republic
  • 17. We must have strong Cities to have a strong America 17 • Access to opportunity in the form of education & jobs, + breaking our dependence on oil • Reducing carbon emissions • Reversing the growing problem of obesity and • Demonstrating that the American dream works best • When we take full advantage of our diversity. ceosforcities
  • 18. Renewed prosperity hinges on . . . 18  The ―spatial fix‖—the creation of new development patterns, new ways of living & working, & new economic landscapes – expand space & intensify our use  More massive & more intensive geographic pattern—the mega- region  Infrastructure that can undergird another round of growth & development - a better & faster information highway, high-speed rail  Make existing infrastructure far more efficient by using information technology to create ―smart‖ grids & highways  A new set of design principles to spark 21st economies, communities, societies, & ignite a more authentic, enduring prosperity  Denser, walkable, pedestrian-friendly areas with street fronts & outdoor markets, cafes, flowers, small public parks, green spaces
  • 19. Communities need to be very, very good at doing four19key things:  Developing, attracting & retaining talent  Connecting their citizens to opportunity, their city to the region & their region to the global economy  Understanding what makes their community distinctive & having the confidence to capitalize on it  Developing the capacity for innovation within government & within the broader community
  • 20. Columbia needs to excel in areas most critical to urban success: 20  The Talented City Developing, maximizing, attracting & retaining talent  The Innovative City Fostering innovation & entrepreneurship  The Connected City Fostering connections that link people with ideas to talent, capital & markets; cities to regions; & regions to the global economy  The Distinctive City Capitalizing on local differences to build local economic opportunity
  • 21. 5 big (very big) ambitions that, together, Columbia can define a new American Dream: 21  Opportunity: We will develop (& attract) all of our talent & put all of our talent to work  Livability: We will all have access to beauty & nature every day  Connectivity: We can meet our daily needs without owning a car  Community: We can all participate in a robust public life  Optimism: We believe that the future can be better for each of us & all of us
  • 22. 22 10 Ways to 1. More farms, less agribusiness Solve the Job 2. More repair, fewer product Problem 3. More recycling, less mining 4. More renovations, less construction Imagine a no- holds-barred 5. More restoration, less destruction ―summit‖ 6. More bike paths, fewer highways that comes up with ideas 7. More local businesses, fewer megastores to solve both 8. More dishwashing, fewer throw-aways our job & 9. More education, less advertising environment al problems 10. More clean energy, less fossil fuel
  • 23. 4 concrete approaches for moving Columbia forward: 23 • Building the infrastructure for 21st century jobs & innovation through investments in broadband Internet, cell service, & transportation networks • Providing the capital to allow businesses to grow through tax incentives, micro-finance programs & expanding the seed capital fund • Investing in education, universities & tech transfer programs to bring ideas from the classroom to the global marketplace • Improving the culture in Columbia to stimulate entrepreneurship by making government more efficient, responsive & transparent (Smart Systems)
  • 24. Challenge of Providing Services to the Public 24
  • 25. 25 America’s  Energy conservation Challenge  Green Building Now is the time  Transit-oriented development to invest in affordability  Urban regeneration & sustainability  Renewable energy
  • 26. 26  Graying of America Columbia’s Challenges  Browning of America  Rise of the single person For the households 21st  Aging infrastructure Century  Aging suburbs  Climate change  Urban sprawl
  • 27. 27  A True Reset transforms into simply the way we The Great innovate & produce but also ushers in a whole Reset new economic landscape. As it takes shape around new infrastructure & systems of transportation, it gives rise to new housing patterns, realigning where & how we live & work. Eventually it ushers in a whole new way of a whole new life . . . economic landscape  Great Resets are defined not just by innovation but by massive movements of people. . . . These are times when talent flows out of some places & and into others. . . . These Talent Resets thus shift the balance of power among cities & regions as well as massive among nations. Locations rise or fall based on movements their ability to attract, retain & productively use talent of all sorts – from brilliant innovators to of people unskilled laborers.  ~ Richard Florida
  • 28. How will Columbia address The Great Reset . . . 28  Improvements in efficiency & productivity, (IBM Smart City) & by the waves of innovation (―creative destruction‖)  Government should be proposing policies that will help to create a new geography & a new way of life to sustain & support it  As the new economy emerges, a new geography & new infrastructure of living & working must come into being  Encourage a freer flow of ideas; encourage universities to turn new discoveries into companies that can grow & create jobs; & actively enable & attract entrepreneurs  Our education/workforce training systems need more dynamic approach to encourage m0re hands-on, interactive creativity
  • 29. The Great Reset continued . . . 29  Clusters of diverse creative businesses are increasingly important for creative industries with success dependent upon  soft (networking, knowledge, human capital, sense of identity, digital networking, advanced workspace design, urban screens, other kinds of digital place-making, - all of which build on the fluid, face-to-face interaction of physical space. ) &  hard infrastructure  Deep structural reforms to improve its supply side. The quality of its financial sector, its physical infrastructure, as well as its human capital, all need serious economic & politically difficult upgrades
  • 30. Federal Policy needs to encourage . . . 30  less home ownership  greater density of development  construction of smaller & more low-energy houses  free up capital that can be invested in the skill development, technology development, business innovation & economic structures  eliminate/cap mortgage interest tax deduction & other massive federal subsidies (secondary mortgage market, road construction & infrastructure) that undergird sprawling, economically inefficient, utterly wasteful suburban & exurban development  intense concentration in urban centers is key to buoyant modern economies
  • 31. Cities need to plan for a Livable Community and a Healthy Community 31  Columbia plans for future growth by . . . identifying priority programs, policies, & strategies to improve the health* of Columbians while advancing the goals of protecting natural resources & agricultural lands, increasing the availability of affordable housing, improving infrastructure systems, promoting public health, planning sustainable communities, improving water quality, & meeting the state’s climate change goals. * A ―Health in All Policies‖ Mindset (―people-centric‖)
  • 32. Columbia plans by considering . . . 32  Need to find our way back to some of the design principles of the traditional American city with a much broader spectrum of housing opportunities  Suburban sprawl came about as a result of two major subsidies: interstate system & the single-home mortgage deduction  Importance of creating pedestrian-friendly & ecologically sound communities, environments that that promote a sense of connectedness & place  To make the design of buildings & infrastructure create a sense of place, environmentally, culturally & socially
  • 33. Top ten trends shaping the future of America's communities 33 1. Placemaking - around the globe 2. Collaboration - key to making change 3. Greenplace - revitalization fights climate change 4. Placemaking - vibrant travel destinations 5. Libraries - new town squares 6. How cities stay lively 12 months a year 7. The Power of 10 leverages community assets 8. Public markets - a leg up in a down economy 9. The rise of community-based transportation planning 10. New developments create innovative models for destinations
  • 34. A Healthy Community provides for the following through all stages of life: 34 1. Meets basic needs of all 2. Quality & sustainability of environment 3. Adequate levels of economic, social development 4. Health and social equity
  • 35. 1. Meets basic needs of all 35  Safe, sustainable, accessible & affordable transportation options  Affordable, accessible & nutritious foods  Affordable, high quality, socially integrated & location- efficient housing  Affordable, accessible & high quality health care  Complete and livable communities including affordable & high quality schools, parks & recreational facilities, child care, libraries, financial services & other daily needs  Access to affordable & safe opportunities for physical activity
  • 36. 2. Quality and sustainability of environment 36  Clean air, soil and water, & environments free of excessive noise  Tobacco & smoke free  Green & open spaces, including agricultural lands Minimized toxics, GHG emissions & waste  Affordable & sustainable energy use
  • 37. 3. Adequate levels of economic, social development 37  Living wage, safe & healthy job opportunities for all  Support for healthy development of children & adolescents  Opportunities for high quality & accessible education
  • 38. 4. Health and social equity 38  Social relationships that are supportive & respectful  Robust social & civic engagement  Socially cohesive & supportive relationships, families, homes & neighborhoods  Safe communities, free of crime & violence
  • 39. Building Livable Communities: Creating a Common Agenda 39  Livability has become the framework for Congress, our administration, & our federal agencies to invest in the quality of life, economic competitiveness, & recovery of the American community  HUD, DOT, & EPA & Partners for Livable Communities will be engaging the full range of livability values: transportation, housing, & amenities: arts, cultural heritage, & design.  This blending of strategies has created a livability tool kit that city, state, & national leaders can use to revitalize the American community. Brookings & EPA
  • 40. Building Livable Communities: Creating a Common Agenda 40  Provide transportation choices  Promote equitable, affordable housing  Increase economic competitiveness  Support existing communities  Leverage federal investment  Value communities & neighborhoods
  • 41. Building Livable Communities 41 Creating a better 21st century means choosing to stop living in the 20th century.
  • 42. 42 The New  Time is market in New Economy Economy  Quality is the goal The  Flexibility is the new standard features of the  Knowledge is the new raw material New Economy  Networks provide collaborative advantage
  • 43. The New Economy values: 43 • Economic regions, which provide a habitat for clustering • Distinctive quality of life, which attracts knowledge workers • Vital centers, which offer lively amenities & opportunities for Interaction • Choice for living & working, which acknowledges increasing diversity of career & life paths • Speed & adaptability, which allow quick access to decisions & resources • The natural environment as an important & compatible element of community.
  • 44. The Economy of the Future will have the following characteristics: 44  Balance - investment & employment, integrated clusters  Energy - maximizes conservation & alternative energy sources  Entrepreneurship – climate of ed, training, research & finance  International – integrated into world economy using our assets  Quality of Life – progressive planning & smart investment  Quality Work Force – educated, trained & adaptable to needs  Sustainable – built upon evolution of our strength for future gen  Technology – encourage innovation & create tech applications
  • 45. Ideas Economy: Human Potential 45 Global challenge: How do we educate billions of new people in the coming decades—& manage their successful entry into the global economy‖ —in age of high unemployment & aging demographics?  bringing together the smartest minds from government, academia & business  young workers demanding entirely new work environments  aging population that requires heavy resources  the nature of work & talent development must evolve dramatically
  • 46. Five key trends for local Economic Development in the 2010s 46  The arts as engines for the creative & experience economies  The growth of "free agent" nation  Ethnic minority/neighborhood communities as emerging markets  Green industries replacing gray industries  Transnational communities as market expanders, industry clusters  Entrepreneurs & homepreneurs, hobbypreneurs Leonardo Vazquez. AICP/PP
  • 47. The Future of Work is about . . . 47 1) Work becomes more about meaning & impact than repeatable tasks 2) 9 to 5 is so yesterday 3) Global sourcing goes on steroids enabling third world opportunity and growth 4) Free Agent Nation becomes a reality 5) Projects are more important than jobs 6) Teams assemble and reassemble based on the job to be done 7) Changing nature of work transforms our daily commute & transportation systems
  • 48. The Future of Work . . . continued 48 8) Industrial era organizations give way to purposeful networks 9) Everything we think & know about professions will change 10) Education is no longer K-16 but a life long commitment 11) Workforce & economic development are transformed become indistinguishable 12) Work becomes more self organized & less institutionally driven 13) Job titles are more about what you can do than meaningless status monikers
  • 49. The Future of Work . . . continued 49 14) Compensation is about performance outcomes not seniority 15) Entrepreneurship becomes democratized & the key economic driver 16) Work and social become indistinguishable 17) Getting better faster is imperative 18) Art & design become integral to work & value creation 19) Making things becomes important & interesting again 20) Passion drives meaningful work
  • 50. 50 Building  Where & how people want to live Future  Highly-sensitive & inter-related Housing system with high quality amenities  Effectiveness of development & management at a neighborhood level Key Drivers  More adaptable & responsive to change for the  Innovation in the construction to be encouraged 21st  Greater understanding of market, need & demand, economic prospects & Century demographics is required City  Where should strategic responsibility lie for planning & housing  Review of policy is required with a long term view
  • 51. 51 Changing Household Types Future Growth in non-traditional-family households Changing face of renters and owners Housing Impact of Immigration When, where and how immigrants live Demographic changes Impact of Race/Ethnicity driving new Implications for Different Residential Housing Types Development Relationship to Employment Patterns Brookings
  • 52. 52  The growth is in non-traditional- Future family households Housing  Singles  Unmarried couples or childless couples Changing  Roommates  Single parents Household  Non-traditional-family Types households  Willing to pioneer new areas  Less concerned about school districts  Looking to balance price and lifestyle  Married renters & single buyers
  • 53. 53  Maturing Boomers: Housing  Luxury homes/condos and some rentals Summary:  More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services  GenX not having children yet, but Demographic soon Changes  Moving into ownership Driving  Echo Boom generation: New  Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008 Residential  Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, Development living with parents
  • 54. What will Columbia’s economy, landscape & infrastructure look like to compete in 21st C? 54 21st Century cities are being held accountable to increasingly complex performance benchmarks. Competition around metrics like :  workforce readiness  emission reductions  mobility indices  quality of life  public health, &  geopolitical risk are driving economic development in the international marketplace
  • 55. By asking the key questions: 55 1) Demographic Growth: Demographics will drive unprecedented demand for housing, jobs & public services. How will Columbia’s demographics change in a global economy? 2) Competitiveness: Seventy percent of U.S. economic output is located in metro regions. What should our community be doing to nurture economic clusters & embrace innovation? Can we really just count on MU, state government, retail, banking & insurance companies to carry our economic prosperity into the future ?
  • 56. The key questions . . . Continued 56 3) Social Inclusion: What is necessary to care, train, & invest in citizens? How do social inclusion goals produce land use strategies? 4) The 2050 Good Life: How do shifting consumer preferences influence real estate products, mix of neighborhood uses & investment patterns? How do we promote quality development ―up‖ & not just further out from the urban center ? How do we help turn our suburban communities into successful 21st Century urban centers?
  • 57. By writing a 21st C Comprehensive Plan for Columbia that will work 57 I. How We Live (Livability) A. Neighborhoods and Housing B. Historic Preservation C. Green Infrastructure: Open Space, Parks & Rec D. Health & Human Services II. How We Prosper (Opportunity) A. Sustaining and Expanding the Economy B. Building equity through Education, Job Training & Entrepreneurial Resources
  • 58. A 21st C Comprehensive Plan . . . Continued 58 III. Sustainable Systems A. Community Facilities, Services & Infrastructure B. Transportation C. Resilience - Living with Water & Natural Hazards D. Environmental Quality Note: Brookings Institute has released (4/2010) 39 policies - rebuilding physical assets to reorganizing work-force supports to collaborating at the regional scale - that can help strengthen its footing in an export-oriented, low-carbon & innovation-fueled world for communities to follow. We need for smarter investments from the public & private sectors & how a shift to a low-carbon economy is vital for maintaining the country’s competitiveness.
  • 59. And by Investing in . . . 59  Residents  Entrepreneurs  Economic Strengths  Next Generation Infrastructure . . . and Counting What Matters:  Business Income  Job Growth  Business Start-ups & Closures  Performance of our K–12 & Higher Education Systems  Opportunity for all
  • 60. How will Columbia compete in the 21st Century? By . . . 60

Editor's Notes

  1. Here are my notes:1.2.3.