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Future scan 2020 & beyond
- 1. Future Scan 2020 and beyond Geethaa George Business Leaders Consulting Firms Academic institutions Secondary Data Research Reports & White papers : WEF data etc Content build from contribution by several..
- 2. Contents 2 4 8 14 18 22 24 26 27 A look into the Mega Trends Zoom into those that impact work Digital Revolution Shifting World Order Diversity Leadership Glimpses of the world of work in 2020 The Leadership Landscape Critical Competencies for Success in the new world
- 3. World Economic Forum Report on Global Risk Report 2017 Economic Risks u Environmental Risks u Geopoli3cal Risks u Societal Risks u Technological Risks u Risks u uu Number and strength of connec2ons (*weighted degree*) Trends Number and strength of connec2ons (*weighted degree*) 2 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 4. Big shifts that impact Business globally 4 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 5. Big shifts that will impact Businesses in the short term Technology Led Transforma3on Business Model Nature of work AI changing the way we live Job losses Responsible leadership Inclusion Social Impact Fairer distribu2on of wealth Environment Geopoli3cal Instability disparity of income Mega Corpora2ons Protec2onism 3Future Scan - 2020 and beyond Diversity Unstoppable! Regulatory changes Par2cipa2on of women Diversity Unstoppable! Ageing Workforce Gender Millennial
- 7. Growth Projection Political challenges risk pushing the global economy off the rails in a world of record debt, vulnerable banks and anemic growth. Beijing is slow-walking long- promised plans to liberalize its economy The IMF warns a dangerous cycle could develop: More weak growth engendered by protectionism could fuel a stronger backlash against trade that would further depress output. World’s 10 Largest Economies Projected Real GDP (trillions of 2010 dollars) United States 17.6 9.8 5.8 3.8 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.1 1.9 China Japan Germany France United Kingdom India Brazil Italy Canada 2017 United States 19 11.5 6 3.5 3 3 2.5 2.2 2 China Japan India United Kingdom France Brazil Italy Canada 2020 United States 21.8 15.5 6.3 5.5 4.2 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.3 2.3 China Japan India Germany United Kingdom France Brazil Canada Italy 2026 United States 23.9 18.8 7.3 6.5 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.5 2.3 China India Japan Germany United Kingdom France Brazil Canada Italy 2030 6Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 8. Protectionism: Deglobalisation ? • Brexit and set for a rocky divorce in the next 3 years • French & German elections raising questions on economic policies of two worlds largest economies • Leanings of the new government in the US Withdrawal from TPP Renegotiations over NAFTA with Mexico & Canada Rising noise on emigration laws • Disturbance in the Middle east and continuing instability in Syria • China Plexing its muscles in the East When the world’s large economies debate protectionism, I think it doesn’t all go well for the world,” Arun Jaitley. 7 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 9. Rising of Mega Corporations • Omnipresent entities • Impacts the daily life of a large population across the globe • Political – can impact policy making and is a strong voice that cant be ignored • Social – Will be held responsible to bring about social change and impact health , education , equality , quality of life etc. • Environmental – Will be held accountable for their impact on the climate and sustainability 8Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 10. Disparity of Income • World’s richest 1% to hold half of worlds wealth by 2018 • Two types of Global inequality 1. Rising gaps between nations (causing migration) 2. Rising inequalities within nations (causing protests, disenchantment and revolts). Chart 1: HIGHLY UNEQUAL INDIA Net Gini index Korea Philippines Nepal Vietnam Bangladesh Papua New Guinea Japan Indonesia India China 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 2013 (or Latest Top 10 Billionaires versus World Gross Domestic Product, 2016 Top Ten Forbes’ Billionaires Nigeria Belgium Iran Norway Thailand Austria United Arab Emirates South Africa Colombia $505 Billion $484.9 Billion $473.5 Billion$416.2 Billion $394.8 Billion $393 Billion $386.2 Billion $356.2 Billion $326.5 Billion $263.5 Billionz 9 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 12. Job losses • Pace of tech led job losses v/s creation of new jobs – 5 million job losses because of technology infusion in the next 3 years • 65% of jobs in 5 years time do not exist today • India will be faced with signiPicant Skill Gap. • Urgent actions in apprenticeship, education revamp, High level & Basic level tech training , employable skill training etc. needed 12Future Scan - 2020 and beyond The evolution of digital labour
- 13. Business Model Changes • Asset light, Capital light, • Direct to consumer • Breakthrough innovations from outside the industry • Technology led 13 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 14. Artificial Intelligence 14Future Scan - 2020 and beyond • Automation have thus far impacted blue-collar employment; the coming wave of innovation threatens to upend white-collar work in a big way • Certain highly-skilled workers will succeed wildly in this new environment. But far more may be displaced into lower paying service industry jobs at best, or permanent unemployment at worst. • Educational system is not adequately preparing us for real employment of the future
- 15. Future of Work
- 16. 17 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 17. 18Future Scan - 2020 and beyond The new world of work
- 18. Millennial • By 2020 Millennial will comprise half of the world workforce • In India a million youth entering the work arena every month for the next 20 yrs !!! • SigniPicant Skill Gap both in Education and Employability • Purpose over Pay • Most disengaged lot in history 19 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 19. GIG Economy • 50% of US workforce to participate in some form of independent work by 2020 • Half of the United Kingdom’s working population will be self- employed in the next Pive years • India’s independent workforce, the second largest in the world Pills about 40 percent of the world’s freelance jobs • Currently employees experience 6-7 jobs in their career term. In the near future they will be doing 6-7 jobs at the same time 20Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 20. Gender Gap • Entrance of aspiring , capable women into the workforce is the biggest single factor impacting future of work . • Yet … • 170 more years for Gender Equality • Unconscious biases arising out of social and religious conditioning the most crippling challenge • Steep gaps in Growth and Pay parity
- 21. Mutigenerational workforce dynamics • The inPlux of millennial • Scarcity v/s Abundance • Emotional maturity & Resilience v/s Entitlement & Impatience • Technology migrants v/s Tech Natives • 100 yr Life – Death of Retirement 22Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 24. New Age Leadership Populist Leadership v/s Responsible Leadership Diversity Environment 26Future Scan - 2020 and beyond One Heroic Leader v/s Leadership System
- 25. Effective Leader Inspirational Leader Evolved Leader 27 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond The evolution..
- 26. The Evolved leader 29 Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CXO Level Empathy Resilienc e Agility Influence Entrepre neurial Digital Mindset Design Thinking Collabora 3on CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS Differen3ator Developmental
- 27. Evolved Leader Qualities What it means - Ability to take in others perspective : Being non judgmental : Recognizing the emotion in other : Feeling with the other person What it takes – Authenticity Self Awareness : Emotional Resilience : Compassion : Sensitivity Empathy 30Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 28. Evolved Leader Qualities What it means Ability to bounce back , hang in there , Solution mindset : Open to change : Flexible : unlearn and Relearn; Routed in Core purpose What it takes Courage : Learning Agility : Adaptability : Emotional maturity ; Humility Resilience 31Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 29. Evolved Leadership Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means - Ability to anticipate and respond with speed ; Creative thought : High initiative : Continuous learning What it takes – Learning ; energy ; creativity ; solution mindset ; Courage : InPluence Agility 32Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 30. Evolved Leadership Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means - Ability to lead without formal authority. Impact outcome without formal power What it takes - Authenticity : Credibility : Competence : Trust : Relationship : Visibility Influence SELF AWARENSS : MINDFULNESS : CENTREDNESS 32Future Scan - 2020 and beyond
- 31. Evolved Leader Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means – Ability to risk : Manage feeling of insecurity and fear: Quest to Create : Spot Talent :Build Capable Teams What it takes – Courage : Conviction : Growth Mindset: Creativity : Resilience : Ambition : Talent spotting Entrepreneurial 34Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 32. Evolved Leader Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means – Understand and fully appreciate the power of Technology and be able to rethink business processes What it takes – Learning agility : appreciation of technology and its possibilities : Curiosity : Change agility Digital Mindset 34Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 33. Evolved Leader Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means Being adaptable to larger environmental changes : Zoom in and Zoom out on the problem : Breaking Silos / multidisciplinary team: co design with communities What it takes Change agility : Perspective : Objectively : Collaboration : Creativity : Design Thinking 34Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS Eagle- a design marvel !
- 34. Evolved Leader Qualities 2017-20 & beyond What it means - Ability to conPluence for higher purpose : Proactive engagement in larger interest : Build and maintain coalitions at work What it takes - Interpersonal sensitivity : join the dots : Ability to see the big picture : Ability to work well with people Collaboration 33Future Scan - 2020 and beyond CENTREDNESS / MINDFULNESS
- 36. Thankyou