Coronavirus Consumer Trends

Proprietary + Conﬁdential
Updated: March 20, 2020
Coronavirus Trends
A closer look at consumer query trends

Proprietary + ConﬁdentialProprietary + Conﬁdential
What’s happening?
The Coronavirus outbreak
in Wuhan, China coincided
with the world’s largest
human migration, which
happens annually during the
Lunar New Year.
Consumers around the world
are exhibiting unnatural
purchasing behaviors by
actively stockpiling
supplies. They are now
searching beyond
emergency items, looking
more towards shelf-stable
and frozen foods, drinks, etc.
Overall stock market
declines, travel bans, social
isolation, supply chain, and
labor concerns pose a
threat of broader economic
impact.
As working from home
increases and leisure
activities are suspended
(Disney, Broadway, NBA,
NCAA), virtual / video media
consumption is predicted to
rise.(1)
Source: (1) eMarketer, “The Biggest Business Impacts of the Coronavirus Pandemic”. AdWeek, “Unprecedented Uncertainty”.

Public Mindset

Since the initial peak in
January, “Coronavirus”
related searches have
since grown +320% on
Google Search
Coronavirus
Source: Internal Google Search Trends, US Searches 1/30/20 vs. 3/12/20

Searches for Coronavirus have surpassed other recent
outbreaks
Coronavirus
Influenza
Ebola
Swine Flu
Zika
January 1, 2005 January 1, 2010 January 1, 2015 January 1, 2020
Source: Google Trends Chart, Data through March 2020. March data is partial and only reported through 3/18/20.
Indexed Google Search Volume
2004 to March 18, 2020

Coronavirus query volume has been driven by critical
events during the outbreak
Source: Google internal data

It has also surpassed Cold & Flu trends with rapid
growth in the last few weeks
Coronavirus Searches Cold Searches Flu Searches
22X
Source: Google Trends Chart, US as of 3/12/20
December 2019 to March 12, 2020

11pm 7am 11pm 2pm 11pm 7am 11pm 7am 11pm7am11pm 7am 7am
It’s often the last thing on people’s mind when they go to
bed and the first thing on their mind when they wake up
Indexed Google Search Volume for ‘Coronavirus’
7-Day Search Interest (February 26 to March 4, 2020)

71%
(as of 3/16/20)
39%
(as of 3/11/20)
24%
(as of 3/4/20)
Q: Is the outbreak of Coronavirus currently
affecting what you do in your spare time?
Source: NRG Coronavirus study, Survey conducted 3/16/20, N=900
NOTE: NRG targets their survey to the moviegoing population, which is not necessarily representative of the general population. The data provides directional insight as moviegoers represent 75% of the North American
population, per MPAA.
The shift in consumer sentiment around how
Coronavirus is affecting daily life is fairly recent

78% 32.5M
Source: (1) NRG Coronavirus study, Survey conducted 3/16/20, N=900; (2) The Washington Post, Published 3/16/20
The US is entering a new reality as quarantine and
self-distancing measures are put in place

Consumer Preparedness

People are looking for prevention methods
February 18, 2020 to March 18, 2020
Hand washing Hand sanitizer Disinfectant

Searches also show a significant month-over-month
rise in preparing for extended periods at-home
+980%
+614%
+113%
Quarantine Work from home Social distancing
February 12, 2020 to March 10, 2020

People are looking at how to prepare and protect
themselves
Top questions on Coronavirus, past week
What is coronavirus
How many people have died from coronavirus?
How to prepare for the coronavirus?
How did the coronavirus get started?
How is coronavirus spread?
Most searched “What to…” on Coronavirus, past week
What to stock up on for coronavirus
What to know about coronavirus
What to do if you think you have coronavirus
What to do to prepare for coronavirus
What to do to prevent coronavirus
Source: Source: Google Trends Coronavirus Report, 2/26/20

And communication implications are, too

Consumers are trying to combat boredom at home
Source: Google Trends (March 11 - 17, 2020)

+60%
amount of content streamed
+80%
weekly game app downloads
At-home entertainment consumption is expected to
surge
Source: Nielsen via The Economist; LA Times

...as other forms of entertainment have been put on hold
Source: Various public media sources

Search activity for “YouTube” spiked in recent weeks in
markets under similar quarantine measures
March 19, 2019 to March 18, 2020
Source: Google Trends (as of March 18, 2020)

“YouTube” related searches with significant
WoW growth, past 7 days:
Italy singing from windows youtube +1,100%
Youtube mo willems +1,050%
Dropkick murphys youtube +950%
Cosmic kids yoga youtube +450%
joe rogan youtube +250%
Top growing searches suggest users are looking to YouTube
for purposes beyond just entertainment, including
education and community
“Italy singing from windows youtube”:
Viral video showing how residents of Italy
are coping with quarantine
“Youtube mo willems”:
Educator offering
home-schooling lessons
for children
“Dropkick murphys youtube”: Dropkick
Murphys Live-Streaming a St. Patrick’s Day
concert in Boston on YouTube on 3/17
Source: Google Trends (as of March 16, 2020)

Risk Assessment

How dependent the US is on China →
USimportsfromChina(in$Billion)→
The US imported $12.24
billion worth of Chinese
toys in 2017. Of all the
toys the US imported
85.82% was from China.
China’s Exposure via US Imports by Product Category
Source: 2017 Trade Data from US Census Bureau (in $Billion)

Distribution by country
as of 2/2/2020
Companies w/ Tier 1 Suppliers in Regions Affected by
Covid-19
Source: Dun & Bradstreet Supply Chain Analytics

The garment industry
(less capital-intensive +
easier to move) was
among the ﬁrst to break
out of China but
manufacturers still rely
on China’s factories for
textile production and
more complex products
such as zippers and
fasteners
China's Share of Clothing & Textile Exports
Source: World Trade Organization

Port of Los Angeles -23% in Feb
Port of Long Beach -10% in Feb
Port of Oakland -3% in Feb
Port of Baltimore -10% in Feb
Port of Virginia -9% in Feb
China’s exports
In Jan & Feb
=
-17.2%
=
$7.1B trade deﬁcit
It takes most manufac
tured goods 25 to 30
days to come from Asia
by sea.
Full impact of the disrup
tion in the US will likely
materialize in March &
April

Record-high
jobless rate
=
5.7%
In Feb
China's Economic YoY Indicators for Jan-Feb 2020
Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Fiat Chrysler halted production at a car factory in Serbia
General Motors Warned of production outages at Michigan & Texas plants
Hyundai Suspended main assembly line in Ulsan, South Korea
Nintendo After partially shifting production of Switch to Vietnam last year is seeing delayed shipments
LG Electronics Halted work at a plant for mobile phones & monitors in Brazil
Ralph Lauren Expects supply disruptions that could impact orders
Abercrombie & Fitch Preparing for the coronavirus to affect business for 6 months
“60% of executives have no knowledge of the items
in their supply chain beyond the tier one group. ”
Peter Guarraia, Bain & Co global supply chain practice
Shortages of components and raw materials because of the
Covid-19 are likely to be worse than expected with most US
companies unaware that they are exposed to Chinese
factories idled by the outbreak.
Risk for Outsourced Assembly

PRODUCTION
IMPACT
Most factories shut for Chineses New Year from Jan 20 to 31
Chineses New Year extension to Feb 10 created additional 12 days of shutdown
Where factories are reopening, workforce is not returning to full strength = lower production level & increased risk to inventory & sales
Many supply chains rely on parts from other factories + A single missing part/raw material can impact ﬁnished goods production
Supply chains operating with minimal inventory buffer will start to see risk of ~2 weeks of lost production
As factories ramp up, they will likely run additional shifts/overtime to make up for lost time = cost will increase
TRANSPORTATION
IMPACT
Transportation into & out of China has been cut
Production shutdown has caused cancellation of vessel sailings = imbalance of empty containers
As production ramps up, shipping will be in a constrained network with high demand for express shipment & limited options
Once production is fully back + pushing for higher production levels, the logistic network will struggle to support the surge in freight volume
Increases in logistics costs are likely = demand/capacity imbalance will drive price increase
Source: Berkeley Research group

Electronics industry is
most at risk because of
its relatively thin
inventories and its lack
of alternative sources for
parts but Apparel &
Retail have thinner
inventories
Covid-19 Risk to Manufacturing
Source: LLamasoft; Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Implications for Grocery & CPG
categories

Food & Beverage brands are facing significant challenges

Google trends indicate that consumers are using
Search to prepare their households for the unknown,
especially as it relates to food
Coronavirus shopping list Shelf stable food Emergency supplies Food stocking
Source: Google Trends, P30 days US data through 3/12/20

“Shopping list”
+55% YoY
(Past 30 days)
(2/9-3/9/20)
F
Chicago
+53% YoY
Washington
+44% YoY
LA
+51% YoY
AZ
+66% YoY
Boston
+52% YoY
New York
+62% YoY
Highly affected areas are seeking assistance in grocery
planning
Source: Internal Google Search Trends, P30 days US data through 3/9/20

Each of these queries grew <+1000%, past 30 days:
What to buy for flu pandemic
Coronavirus shopping list
What to buy for coronavirus pandemic
Coronavirus preparation shopping list
Prepare for pandemic supplies
What to stockpile for pandemic
Food supply for pandemic
What to have on hand for pandemic
Food searches with significant growth, past 30 days:
Bottled water shortage <+1000%
Emergency food supply +750%
Patriot food supply +600%
Survival food +250%
Emergency food +250%
Food storage +70%
Bottled water delivery +70%
Search queries related to food supplies have grown
significantly
Source: Google Trends, P30 days US data through 3/12/20

The week of March 1st-7th saw search growth in Bottled
Water, Frozen Desserts & Online Grocery Shopping queries
(data through 3/7/20)
Category Searches on
Google
WoW Change
(Latest week versus
prior week)
4 Week Change
(Latest 4 Weeks vs.
Previous 4 weeks)
Google
WoW Change
(Latest week versus
prior week)
4 Week Change
(Latest 4 Weeks vs.
Previous 4 weeks)
Alcoholic Beverages 1.6% 6.3% Frozen Foods 0.7% -6.0%
Baby Food -3.8% 6.9% Herbs & Spices -2.1% -2.8%
Baked Goods -5.1% -0.4% Juice 0.0% -0.8%
Baking Ingredients -1.8% -0.6% Non-Alcoholic Beverages 2.2% 1.7%
Beverages 1.8% 4.2%
Online Grocery Shopping &
Grocery Delivery
7.2% -4.8%
Bottled Water & Water Delivery 8.2% 4.7% Organic & Natural Foods 0.1% 0.3%
Breakfast Foods -8.1% 3.8% Pet Food & Treats -4.3% 0.0%
Candy, Gum & Mints -4.7% 0.7% Prepared Foods -0.3% -2.9%
Coffee 3.7% 1.8% Produce 0.3% 1.1%
Deli & Lunch Meats -3.8% -3.3% Snack Foods -1.4% -5.6%
Desserts 5.6% 5.5% Soft Drinks -1.8% 3.3%
Energy Drinks 2.0% 1.8% Sports Drinks 1.5% 6.0%
Frozen Desserts, Frozen
Novelties & Accompaniments
11.1% 9.3% Tea 1.9% 0.3%
Source: Internal Google Trends Data, Week ending 3/7/20

The week of March 8-14th saw search growth in Bottled
Water, Frozen Foods, Online Shopping and Prepared Foods
(data through 3/14/20)
Google
WoW Change
(Latest week versus
prior week)
4 Week Change
(Latest 4 Weeks vs.
Previous 4 weeks)
Google
WoW Change
(Latest week versus
prior week)
4 Week Change
(Latest 4 Weeks vs.
Previous 4 weeks)
Alcoholic Beverages 0.1% 4.9% Frozen Foods 5.5% -1.6%
Baby Food -5.6% -7.9% Herbs & Spices -3.4% -3.2%
Baked Goods -4.3% -7.0% Juice -6.4% 0.0%
Baking Ingredients -2.6% -3.9% Non-Alcoholic Beverages -5.8% 1.0%
Beverages -2.6% 3.1%
Online Grocery Shopping &
Grocery Delivery
65.3% 12.1%
Bottled Water & Water Delivery 56.5% 27.6% Organic & Natural Foods 9.7% 2.6%
Breakfast Foods -11.3% 2.0% Pet Food & Treats 1.2% 1.0%
Candy, Gum & Mints -10.6% -19.1% Prepared Foods 6.3% 1.5%
Coffee -13.6% -1.3% Produce -0.2% -0.4%
Deli & Lunch Meats -4.8% -3.7% Snack Foods -9.2% -8.1%
Desserts -7.8% 2.6% Soft Drinks -7.0% -1.1%
Energy Drinks -9.3% -2.1% Sports Drinks -5.9% 5.7%
Frozen Desserts, Frozen
Novelties & Accompaniments
-8.0% 8.1% Tea -10.2% -0.4%
Source: Internal Google Trends Data, Week ending 3/14/20

Many are turning to grocery delivery & pick-up
“Online Grocery
Shopping & Grocery
Delivery”
+23% YoY
(Past 30 days)
(2/9-3/7/20)
F
CHI
+31% YoY
Seattle
+31% YoY
CA
+18% YoY
AZ
+22% YoY
Boston
+18% YoY
New York
+28% YoY
Source: Internal Google Search Trends, P30 days US data through 3/9/20

● Help consumers plan and prepare for the unknown. Act with
sensitivity and offer empathic solutions that help consumers
navigate the “new normal”.
● Drive awareness of alternate solutions like safe food & beverage
grocery delivery and Click & Collect to help consumers remain
safe during recommended social distancing periods.
● Help consumers prepare for increased media consumption and
indulgent food moments at-home, with recipe, meal prep and
productivity ideas that rely on shelf-stable, nutritious foods.
Be There.
Be Useful.
What are the marketing implications as Food & Beverage
CPG companies are impacted?

Implications for Restaurants

Restaurants in the US are facing challenges
Source: Google News

In the earliest impacted cities, restaurant covers are
starting to show decline; down 20% across the U.S. YoY
“reservation cancellation”
+5X YoY
(projected: March 8-14
2020 vs. 2019)
Seattle
-55% YoY
New York
-30% YoY
Source: Google Trends, Resy data

Across the US there has been a decline in search
interest for dining out
Searches for
“restaurants near me”
in the US have dropped
34% in the past two
weeks
Saturday, February 29
Saturday, March 14
Source: Google Trends, 2/25/20-3/15/20

Consumers across the U.S. are now turning to
restaurant take-out and delivery
● Searches for terms relating
to take-out food across
the U.S. have increased
127% over the past 5 days
(3/12-3/16), diverging from
the cyclical trend we usually
see
● Since Saturday, 3/14 we’ve
seen interest continue to
rise, growing 41% over the
past few days (3/14-3/16) ● Cyclical saturday peaks
Saturday, March 14
Source: Google Trends, 2/25/20-3/16/20

Safety is top of mind for consumers as they consider how
to get food; services are now offering contactless options
Top Rising Queries Related to “delivery” for Restaurants
Is it safe to order food delivery coronavirus +700%
Is it safe to order food delivery +500%
Is food delivery safe +350%
Food delivery coronavirus +300%
Food delivery and coronavirus +250%
+50% increase in
consideration for
Uber Eats
(among those concerned
about coronavirus)
Source: Google Trends, P7 days US data through 3/13/20; YouGov, Brand Index, Feb 5 - March 3 (based on 2-week moving average)

● Help consumers plan and prepare for the unknown. Act with
sensitivity and offer empathic solutions that help consumers
navigate the “new normal”.
● Drive awareness of alternate solutions like speedy and safe food
delivery/takeout options to help consumers remain safe during
recommended social distancing periods.
● Help consumers prepare for increased media consumption and
indulgent food moments at-home, with diverse food delivery
options and limited offers.
● Reassure loyal customers with communications around strict
restaurant sanitation measures and employee sick policies.
Be There.
Be Useful.
What are the marketing implications as Restaurants are
impacted?

Implications for Luxury Fashion

-18%
since 3/10
Covid-19 Impact on Fashion Luxury Brand Searches
Source: Google Internal data

Share of Personal Luxury Goods Market
Source: Bain & Company, Inc.

-10%
in Chinese consumption
in 1H20
=
-2%
Revenue
+
up to
-4%
annual proﬁt
Contribution to Luxury Goods Market Growth in 2019
Source: Bain & Company, Inc.

Chinese consumers
(home & travelling)
=
~40%
spent on luxury goods
last year
Percentage of Sales from Chinese Consumers
Source: RBC Capital

Minimal supply chain
disruption expected for
Hermès since 80% of
production is in France
Number of Mainland China Stores in 2020
Source: Financial Times

-9.1%
Foot traffic to retail
shops in North America
1st week of March 2020
Luxury companies sharp plunges have outpaced the general
market during the week of 3/9:
1. Capri Holdings Ltd. (Michael Kors & Versace) -40%
2. Tapestry Inc. (Coach & Kate Spade) -31%
3. Ralph Lauren Corp. -27%
4. PVH Corp. (Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger) -40%
Citigroup Inc.
Downgraded Tapestry, Capri, PVH,
Ralph Lauren, Steve Madden & more...
+
Cited weaker demand environment
Deutsche Bank
Downgraded Ralph Lauren, Tapestry
and Capri stocks
+
Lowered investment rating on PVH
+
Cited concerns about supply chain
disruptions, falling tourism and the
potential that slower demand for
luxury goods is sustained
-14.7%Foot traffic to luxury shops in
North America
1st week of March 2020
First it hammered demand
from Chinese shoppers
Dozens of stores in mainland
China were shut down
China’s affluent shoppers
stayed home rather than
splurging during trips to
European fashion capitals
Then virus spread to Italy = the
industry’s most important
manufacturing hub
Now the virus’s emergence in
the U.S. is threatening to sap
demand in another of the
industry’s biggest markets
Covid-19 & Luxury
Source: Prodco Analytics

Implications for Media &
Entertainment

This is altering traditional
ways of doing business in
media & entertainment.

Studios are experimenting with new window strategies.
“Starting Friday, March 20th,
movie watchers can rent The
Hunt, The Invisible Man, and
Emma ‘on a wide variety of the
most popular on-demand
services’ for $20 in the U.S.”
[Recode]
“Frozen 2 is now available to all
[Disney+] subscribers, a full three
months ahead of schedule. The home
video/VOD release of Star Wars: The
Rise of Skywalker has additionally
made the jump to lightspeed.”
[Vanity Fair]
“Warner Bros.’ Birds of Prey and
Michael B. Jordan starrer Just Mercy,
as well as STX’s The Gentlemen will be
available for purchase March 24th, a
few weeks earlier than a typical VOD
release.”
[THR]
Source: Vanity Fair,, Recode, THR

Once considered “in-person only” experiences have
shifted towards live streaming
Source: Various public media sources

Our initial observations in this
new media & entertainment
reality

21%of consumers who’ve signed
up for a streaming service
this year say Coronavirus
helped drive their decision
SOURCE: Morning Consult via eMarketer

63%say they are streaming more
ﬁlms or TV shows since the
outbreak
NOTE: NRG targets their survey to the moviegoing population, which is not necessarily
representative of the general population. The data provides directional insight as moviegoers
represent 75% of the North American population, per MPAA.

Search for “Undecided Streaming” terms have been
increasing year-over-year
+41%
Source: Google Search Data (as of March 14, 2020)

Home Entertainment, Streaming and some “free” terms
rising substantially over the past five-to-six weeks
Keyword (TV/Movies) % Growth
best tv series 123%
new movie 25%
tv apps 12%
movies to rent 34%
watch movies online 29%
new movies to rent 21%
online movies 8%
what to watch 7%
Keyword (Free/Streaming Sites) % Growth
free movie websites 205%
movie streaming sites 142%
watch tv shows online free 21%
free full movies 21%
movies free 20%
free tv shows 10%
free movies 8%
Source: Internal Google Search data; note - while other terms have rapid growth, these terms have met a signiﬁcant search volume threshold to reﬂect consumer behavior

VIDEO GAMING
IMAGE
47%report that they are playing
more video games than
before the outbreak

Video game streaming
has seen a massive
uptick as well
19.7M
concurrent Steam players
Source: Forbes

We expect to see continued growth
in online gaming based on the search interest in Italy
Source: Google Trends | Date Range: 2/18 - 3/18

VIDEO GAMING
IMAGE
39%report they are reading more
physical books than before
the outbreak

77%report they are following the
COVID-19 story on the news
36%report they are following the
stock market changes

Live entertainment and movie-going are currently among
the activities most affected by Coronavirus
Q: Which activities that you do in your spare time are
currently being affected by the outbreak of the Coronavirus?

49%
(as of 3/16)

Source: Google Consumer Survey | n = 300
EVENTS IMAGE
6%report that they would
deﬁnitely attend live events
(sports, concerts, etc.) in the
next 2 weeks
Source: Google Consumer Survey, ﬁelded 3/15-3/17

5 Lessons from Google Marketing

As we learn to cope with isolation, changes to
entertainment culture may outlast the short-term
What role will
live-streaming
play going forward,
especially as physical
events return?
How will
entertainment
mediums evolve
beyond the crisis?
What might the
impact on large
gatherings look like,
and will that vary by
medium?

Consumers’ experiences with brands in this difficult time
will likely endure past the short-term
Appearing helpful and empathetic can help build positive consumer sentiment
Swift,
empathetic
engagement
with
appropriate
tone
Transparency in
fulﬁllment and
decision-
making
Native digital
experience that
is easy to
navigate
Consumer
value-ads
Clear
commitment to
brand values

Inside Google Marketing: 5 principles guiding our media
teams in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak
Context,
always
Constantly reassess Creative
considerations
Changing priorities
to navigate
uncertainty
Contribution,
at every
opportunity

Inside Google Marketing: 5 Principles Guiding our
Teams in the Wake of the COVID-19 Outbreak
Source: Think with Google, 2020
Click here for the full Think with Google article
1. Context, always. Our global teams are providing guidance centrally, but we’ve found it’s
best to trust each market to make decisions locally. In other words: direction from the center,
but decisions on the ground.
○ Guiding question: Is this campaign right, given the current context in a local market?
2. Constantly reassess.As market dynamics change rapidly, we’re constantly reassessing
campaigns, creative, and even our guidelines. What we decided two weeks ago isn’t necessarily
appropriate today. The one constant assumption we have in this situation is that things will
change.
○ Guiding question: Though we greenlit this campaign last month/last week/yesterday, is it still right
for the context and moment?
3. Creative considerations. In the spirit of reassessing campaigns, we’re finding that all
kinds of creative elements need scrutiny right now. From tone and visual imagery to copy and
keywords, the context of our media buys needs to be carefully assessed. We’re asking ourselves
these questions with every campaign, no matter the channel or size of spend behind it.
○ Guiding question: Are all of the creative elements — tone, copy, visuals, keywords, placements —
appropriate and relevant to this new reality?

Inside Google Marketing: 5 Principles Guiding our
Teams in the Wake of the COVID-19 Outbreak
4. Changing priorities to navigate uncertainty.As business professionals, we
recognize that we have a responsibility to navigate uncertainty. Through it all, we’re evaluating our media
budgets through the lens of what’s most relevant to our consumers.
○ Guiding question: What are the most relevant brands, products, or campaigns our media can
support right now, and do we need to shift budgets?
5. Contribution, at every opportunity.If there’s ever been a moment for us to come
together and help one another, this is it. As our CEO Sundar Pichai wrote, “In this unprecedented moment,
we feel a great responsibility to help.” We’re asking ourselves how we can help our consumers, our
customers, and our partners — especially when it comes to our owned channels.
○ Guiding question: What ways can our brand — and even our owned media channels — be helpful
to people and businesses in this moment of need?
Source: Think with Google, 2020
Click here for the full Think with Google article

Coronavirus Consumer Trends

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