The webinar offers a new approach to least-cost electrification planning, deciding down to each individual customer the best (least-cost) supply model, whether grid connection, distributed off-grid microgrids, or even a DC solar kit or an AC stand-alone solar system. By dealing with distributed electrification technologies, smart grid compatible off-grid technologies, demand management or digital utilities, in the context of developing countries, where 1.2 billion people still lack any electricity supply and around 500 million more suffer from a very low reliability and frequent blackouts, the savings offered by this comprehensive approach contribute to the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goal 7, ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.

1. COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING FOR
UNIVERSAL ELECTRICITY ACCESS
The Reference Electrification Model
(REM)
Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga & Andrés González García
June 13th, 2018

2. ISGAN in a Nutshell
Created under the auspices of:
the Implementing
Agreement for a
Co-operative
Programme on Smart
Grids
2
Strategic platform to support high-level government
knowledge transfer and action for the accelerated
development and deployment of smarter, cleaner
electricity grids around the world
International Smart Grid Action Network is
the only global government-to-
government forum on smart grids.
an initiative of the
Clean Energy
Ministerial (CEM)

3. ISGAN’s worldwide presence
3

4. Value proposition
4
ISGAN
Conference
presentations
Policy
briefs
Technology
briefs
Technical
papers
Discussion
papers
Webinars
Casebooks
Workshops
Broad international
expert network
Knowledge sharing,
technical assistance,
project coordination
Global, regional &
national policy support
Strategic partnerships
IEA, CEM, GSGF,
Mission Innovation, etc.

5. Webinar’s objectives
1. Understand the
• objectives
• the means
• the factors involved
in doing electrification planning
2. Learn how this is actually done, by
examining an actual case examples
(Zambia)
3. Describe the Reference Electrification
Model (REM)
5

6. The big picture
6

7. 7
Electrification plans in a wider context
• Electrification plans are inserted in the wider
strategy of a country in
• Energy policy
• Poverty reduction
• Economic development
• Power sector structure & regulatory approach
• Overall development priorities & financial limitations
➜ Distinguish a strict techno-economic electrification
plan from what is possible & desirable under the actual
existing conditions

8. The techno-economic approach
8

9. 9
The objective of the plan
• From a techno-economic perspective, the goal is
to provide electricity services, to both
electrified & non-electrified consumers, at
affordable prices & with an acceptable quality of
service.
• The plan must specify what has to be done to
move from the present (undesirable) state to the
(desirable) future power system state vaguely
defined above

10. 10
We start from the present situation of
electrification of demand…
• Electrified households, commercial buildings &
industries
• Location, Electrification mode, Quality of supply, Cost
of electricity supply, Present & future estimated
demand
• Non-electrified households, commercial
buildings & industries
• Location, present & future estimated demand
(dependent on affordability, estimated quality of
service, supply technology)

11. 11
…& from the the present condition of
power supply
• Layout & techno-economic characteristics of the
distribution network
• Network physical layout, for all voltages
• Catalog of components (electrical characteristics,
maximum capacity) & costs (investment, operation &
maintenance) & technical losses
• Information about the bulk power system
upstream (this depends much on the level of
electrification of the country)
• Generation to supply new grid-connected demand
• Transmission reinforcements that might be needed

12. 12
The cost of supply of an electrification
plan
• The plan will consist of on- & off-grid solutions
• Grid extension costs
• Investment & operation costs of new grid, reinforcements of
existing grid, “upstream” cost of grid-supplied electricity,
cost of non served energy
• Off-grid development costs
• Microgrids: Investment & operation costs of generation,
storage & network, cost of non served energy
• Stand-alone systems: Investment & operation costs of
generation & storage, cost of non served energy

13. 13
Why a plan is better than other?
• One or multiple figures of merit express the
preference for one solution over another
• The cost of supply is the most common (&
frequently the only) figure of merit ➜ use some
search procedure over the possible plans (the
“solution space”) to determine the minimum
cost electrification plan
• Other factors have to be considered during the
electrification planning process, of which the
techno-economic procedure is just one step

14. 14
The “optimal plan”
• The outcome of the techno-economic phase of
the electrification planning process is the “best”
(minimum cost) electrification plan, where a
plan is initially defined by
• the supply technology for each one of the
points of demand (consumers, or rather
“customers”), the technical means to provide this,
and the total cost

15. The strategy of
implementation of the plan
15

16. 16
Accounting for “other factors”
• The strict techno-economic approach ignores
important factors that in general will condition the
definition of the “optimal plan”, such as
• In-depth evaluation of compatibility with political
& energy policy priorities
• Consumer preferences, potential level of
acceptance of the plan & community engagement
• Institutional inertia of the incumbent utility
• Sustainability concerns (environmental, social,
technical, economic)

17. 17
Several countries have master electrification plans

18. Now we shall examine the case
example of an electrification plan
for Zambia
18

19. 19

20. Zambia
20

21. Let’s go back to 2006
21

22. 22
Context: Main power sector actors (Zambia)
• Ministry of Energy and Water Development
(MEWD)
• Rural Electrification Authority (REA)
• Energy Regulation Board (ERB)
• Electricity companies
• ZESCO Limited is a vertically integrated public power
utility, with the functions of generation, transmission,
and distribution.
• Copperbelt Energy Corporation (CEC)
• Lunsemfwa Hydropower Company Plc
• Energy Service Companies (ESCOs)

23. 23
General profile of Zambia (data 2006)
• Administrative organization:
• 9 provinces, 72 districts, 1286 wards
• Population: 11.4M
• 3.9M urban, expected growth 1.75%/yr
• 7.5M rural, expected growth 3.34%/yr
• Literacy rate 55.3%
• Poverty ratio (2004): 68% (People who, at best, can
afford the basic minimum food requirements but cannot
afford minimum basic non-food items, such as health,
shelter, and education)

24. 24
Context: Electrification in Zambia
• Electrification level was very low
• National 22%, rural 3% (in 2006, when plan was
conceived)
• Attributed to low funding & lack of a plan
• The Electrification Plan was made public in 2009

25. 25

26. Population projections for Zambia
26

27. What is in an electrification plan?
27

28. • By 2030 the Plan aims to achieve household electrification
rate 90% in the urban areas, 100% in 1,217 RGCs in the
Master Plan, and 20% in the rural areas outside the 1,217
RGCs.
• Based on these targets, a household electrification rate of
66.0% in the nation-wide will be achieved in 2030, in which the
rural electrification rate will be 50.6%.
Objectives of the Plan
Make use of all electrification modes
• Extension of the national grid
• Mini-hydro plants feeding off-grid microgrids
• Solar home systems 28

29. The distribution
network in Zambia
29

30. Catchment area of a Rural Growth Center
30

31. The 1217 RGCs
electrification
candidates
31

32. 32

33. 33
Major tasks in the plan (REMP) - 1
• 1217 Rural Growth Centers (RGCs) are selected as the
electrification targets, based on information sent by
District Planners
• Forecast the potential daily peak demands for the
1,217 unelectrified RGCs by using the demographic
data of these 1,217 RGCs and analyzing the data
collected from 19 electrified RGCs in the Socio-
Economic Survey
• The 1,217 RGCs were preliminarily prioritized
based on demand level

34. 34
Major tasks in the plan (REMP) - 2
• RGCs located in a possible network extension are
manually grouped into “project packages”
• Each project package is broken into components (mini-
grids with mini-hydro, solar and diesel, or solar home
systems) to try to reduce the cost of grid extension
• The final electrification mode for each component is
decided on a least lifetime-cost basis

35. The concept of “project package”
35

36. Trial & error search for the minimum cost
solution
36

37. Computation of the lifetime cost
37

38. 38
Major tasks in the plan (REMP) - 3
• Financial indicators are computed for all Project
Packages
• The final electrification priority of Project Packages is
determined by the value of these indicators.
• Project Packages are grouped into Annual Project
Phases from 2008 to 2030 using the project cost
annuities
• A “Social Aspect Analysis” (ability to pay, willingness to
pay, and prioritized property for electrification) is carried
out by using the data collected during the Socio-
Economic Survey

39. Outcome
39

40. The electrification
plan in 2030 40

41. The electrification
plan
41

42. 42
Summary of the Plan
• 1,217 RGCs were identified, aggregated into 180
Project Packages, the optimal electrification mode
was chosen (among transmission / distribution extension,
SHS, mini-hydro, and diesel generator) & they were
grouped into 22 Annual Project Phases until 2030
• The Study combined the outputs from the Technical
and the Social Aspect Analysis, to develop a
Comprehensive Rural Electrification Program
• Approximately US$ 50 million per year is needed from
2008 to 2030 to finance all Project Packages
• Only a fraction of the 180 Project Packages are
financially attractive

43. • Population: 16.2 MM
• GDP: $1,342 per capita
• Gini (2010): 57.5, meaning high inequality
• 2017 population with electricity: 26%
• -Rural: 3%
• -Urban: 62%
• Electric power transmission and distribution losses: 15%
of output
• Electricity production from hydroelectric sources: 97.2%
Sources:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS?locations=ZM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zambia
https://www.usaid.gov/powerafrica/zambia
Zambia today
43

44. You can find all the details in
the report
44

45. How can geospatial planning
help in the electrification
planning process?
45

46. The Reference Electrification
Model (REM)
46
http://universalaccess.mit.edu/#/rem

47. Universal Energy Access Lab
http://universalaccess.mit.edu
Massachusetts Institute of Technology / Tata Center for Technology
and Design
IIT-Comillas University / Institute for Research in Technology
47

48. REM supports large-scale electrification
planning…
District of
Vaishali (Bihar)
About 600,000
households
48

49. 49
Large-scale REM output
District of
Vaishali (Bihar)
About 600,000
households
Existing 11kV Extension 400V Stand-AloneExtension 11kV Microgrid 400V

50. … as well as local electrification
projects…
Cable Type/Name kVA Length (km) Costs (euros)
mole (single phase) 15 1.14 1130.82
gopher (single phase) 27 0.26 495.74
weasel (single phase) 30 0.04 87.21
weasel 89 1.05 3505.63
ferret 107 0.35 1532.83
Village of Tayabpur, in
Bikhanpura, Desari block, ward
9,(Bihar)
190 households
50

51. REM output
51

52. 52
REM output in both cases
• Network layout
• Generation design
(micro-grids),
detailed dispatch
• Detailed cost and
design figures
(tables, charts)
• Geo-referenced
solutions (maps)
Low Demand Summary
Table:
Total Cost Annuity $1832
Total Capital Costs
$1405
7
Annual O&M $376
LV Correction Costs $358
LV Prevention Costs $18
LV Capital Costs
$1405
7
Annual Losses (MWH) 5.63
Annuity/Load Served
($/kWh) 0.032
$105.28
7
$18.085
$114.25
2
$18.845
$-
$50.000
$100.000
$150.000
Upfront costs Annuity
1 $/L

53. How does REM do it?
53

54. We start from the position of every building to be
supplied…
District of
Vaishali (Bihar)
About 600,000
households
54

55. If geolocation of buildings is not
available, starting from satellite
imagery…
55

56. … our software identifies the location of each
building…
56

57. 57
… we also need the estimated demand for each
type of building…

58. … & the location & characteristics of the
existing network…
58

59. … & then the REM model determines the lowest
cost electrification mode for each building & can
place it on Google maps
59

60. … accounting for the topography…
60

61. Study Area (Rwanda):
• ~ 100 sq. km
• ~ 2000 Residential
Consumers
• Closest “Existing/Ongoing”
Line
61

62. 62

63. 63

64. For each microgrid REM optimizes the mix
of generation & storage…
64

65. … & provides statistics of cost &
performance for each type of supply
65

66. ... & it can adapt the network layout to
the pattern of roads and paths in the
village
66

67. DETAIL OF THE DESIGN OF ONE MICROGRID
67

68. What if questions
(Sensitivity analysis)
68

69. Sensitivity analysis
For both large scale & village levels
The model can be used to answer “what if questions” by
comparison of various scenarios
For example, how would the optimal electrification mode change
if…
• … grid reliability improves?
• … electricity demand grows significantly?
• … microgrids are required to be built to grid code?
• … some technology (e.g. diesel, DC) is excluded?
69

70. Uganda
(Southern Territories)
70

71. Uganda – Southern territories
Forced 100% Grid Extension
5 10 15 20 km
Extension 11kV Extension 400V Stand-AloneMicrogrid 11kV Microgrid 400V
Results obtained with the REM planning
model
http://universalaccess.mit.edu/#/main
71

72. 5 10 15 20 km
Extension 11kV Extension 400V Stand-AloneMicrogrid 11kV Microgrid 400V
Uganda – Southern territories
100% Grid Reliability
Results obtained with the REM planning
model
http://universalaccess.mit.edu/#/main
72

73. 5 10 15 20 km
Extension 11kV Extension 400V Stand-AloneMicrogrid 11kV Microgrid 400V
Uganda – Southern territories
85% Grid Reliability
Results obtained with the REM planning
model
http://universalaccess.mit.edu/#/main
73

74. Thank you
Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga & Andrés González García
ipa@mit.edu; andres.gonzalez@iit.comillas.edu

75. Backup slides
75

76. Cajamarca
(Peru)
76

77. The Cajamarca region
Image source: Andres Gonzalez-Garcia, Reja Amatya, Robert Stoner, and Ignacio
Perez-Arriaga, ‘Evaluation of universal access to modern energy services in Peru.
Case study of scenarios for Electricity Access in Cajamarca.’ Enel Foundation,
2015.
• The region of
Cajamarca is
located in the
north of Peru
and close to
Ecuador.
• The case study
focus on the
Michiquillay
district.
• It has an area
of approximately
400 km2 and
around 6,700
buildings.
77

78. Cajamarca (Peru)
Location of buildings
78

79. Cajamarca (Peru)
Base case (estimated household demand: 185.5
kWh/year)
79

80. Cajamarca (Peru)
Demand growth (500 kWh/year & household)
80