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Analyzing Complex Decision using Analytical Hierarchy Process
                and Expert Choice Software

             Operation Management (BOM 7094) Assignment
                       Uun Ainurrofiq | 1111200141
Jhonny’s first
world
problem            Should I choose Linda,
                   Mei Mei, or Nguyen?
                                                          use AHP technique
                                                          to Find Jhonny’s
                                                          Perfect Soulmate..!!
                 Linda : Mature, Independent but not pretty
                 Mei Mei : Cute, Smart but childish
                 Nguyen : Pretty, Rich but not so fun
                 Shika : Rock Star
This paper in brief…


  Complex    Analytical                     Improved
                          Expert              Group
  Decision   Hierarchy
                          Choice             Decision
              Process


  Problem
              Method       Tools   More Systematic & Logical Approach
Case Study Scenario   Calisto Corporation | Bandung - Indonesia
                               "Jack of all trades, master of none"
                           Goal : Find Calisto Corp Project Focus
The procedure for using the AHP can be summarized as below:


                         Comparing
     Defiene                  the            Synthesizing
                         Alternative            Final
      Goal                  s with            Priorities
                           Criteria




    Decompose             Establish
    Problem to            Priorities
                                              Make
    Hierarchy of           among               the
    Criteria and         Criteria and        decision
    Subcriteria          Sub Criteria
#STEP.ONE   Goal



                                          Win Paradigm.
                                          Brad Sugar on how to find
             Calisto Corp Project Focus


                                          the perfect job
#STEP.ONE   Goal                           Criteria       SubCriteria       Alternatives
                                                              Fun
                                           Passion
                                                          Knowledge
                                          #STEP.TWO
             Calisto Corp Project Focus


                                                          CapexOpex

                                            Capital    Management Skill

                                                           Employee

                                                            Money
                                           Benefit
                                                             Social

                                                        Market Growth
                                           Potential
                                                       Business Expansion
Goal                                         Calisto Corp Project Focus
Criteria 1   Passion
                             Management positive feelings toward the project. How much they will
Sub 1.1      Fun
                             enjoy and love the activity
                             How far will management knowledge improved by doing the project. Also
Sub 1.2      Knowledge
                             considering new skill, new contacts & network, new ideas etc.
Criteria 2   Capital
Sub 2.1      CapexOpex       Money required to run the project
             Management      Management self-efficacy in handling the project. This also related to
Sub 2.2
             Skill           current experience and knowledge
                             Employee availability in the area. Low skilled employee considered easy to
Sub 2.3      Employee        be found, whereas high skilled employee is harder to be found, trained and
                             retained
Criteria 3   Benefit
Sub 3.1      Money           Profit gained in the form of money
                             Benefit which will be enjoyed by the community eg. Employment, better
Sub 3.2      Social
                             product available, satisfied needs
Criteria 4   Potential

Sub 4.1      Market Growth   How big is the opportunity due to market growth, increasing demand
             Business        How big is Calisto capability will improve to capture the opportunity of
Sub 4.2
             Expansion       growing market
#STEP.THREE Establish Priorities among Criteria and Sub Criteria
#STEP.THREE

Establish Priorities among
  Criteria and Sub Criteria

         << Overall Result
#STEP.FOUR       Comparing the Alternatives with Criteria


               Sub-criteria            Assessment Technique      Source

  Sub 1.1       Fun                    Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input
  Sub 1.2       Knowledge              Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input
  Sub 2.1       CapexOpex              Direct                    Accounting Report
  Sub 2.2       Management Skill       Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input
  Sub 2.3       Employee               Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input
  Sub 3.1       Money                  Direct                    Accounting Report
  Sub 3.2       Social                 Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input
  Sub 4.1       Market Growth          Direct                    Accounting Report
  Sub 4.2       Business Expansion     Pairwise                  Management Subjective Input

  Noted that pairwise comparison based on person judgement, therefore it is very subjective.
  To minimize the subjectivity, we also use direct assessment for some known parameter.
#STEP.FOUR    Comparing the Alternatives with Criteria


                                                         *




  *used as information source for direct assessment
#STEP.FOUR

Comparing the Alternatives
             with Criteria

          << Overall Result
#STEP.FIVE        Synthesizing Final Priorities




                                                    Overall Result


Table 6. Project priority wth respect to criteria
#STEP.FIVE           Make the decision

Calisto management decide to focus on café and printing project and terminate its operation in Clothing Merchandise and Event Organizer.




                                                                                                         Because they have used the
                                                                                                         AHP, it is easy for them to trace
                                                                                                         their thinking and to justify the
                                                                                                         steps along the way to their
                                                                                                         decision. If they have second
                                                                                                         thoughts about the final
                                                                                                         outcome, they can revisit the
                                                                                                         process and make changes if
                                                                                                         appropriate. And if they choose
                                                                                                         to, they can reveal the details of
                                                                                                         their process to their consultants
                                                                                                         and confidants, to the
                                                                                                         employee, to the shareholders, or
                                                                                                         to anyone else who might be
                                                                                                         concerned with the decision.
Summary
Analytic Hierarchy Process has shown Calisto team that the Café Project best satisfies all
their criteria and judgments, followed closely by the Digital Printing Project. The other
alternatives fall short of meeting their criteria.

AHP can be used to help us address other case which requires complex decision process

Expert Choice software plays important role in this case by:
• Brings structure and measurement to Calisto planning & selecting process
• Helps Calisto determine strategic priorities and optimally allocates its resources
• Communicates priorities and builds consensus among management
• Documents and justifies Calisto strategic decisions
• Enables Calisto to move forward quickly and confidently
Thank You...

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Complex decision with ahp

  • 1. Analyzing Complex Decision using Analytical Hierarchy Process and Expert Choice Software Operation Management (BOM 7094) Assignment Uun Ainurrofiq | 1111200141
  • 2. Jhonny’s first world problem Should I choose Linda, Mei Mei, or Nguyen? use AHP technique to Find Jhonny’s Perfect Soulmate..!! Linda : Mature, Independent but not pretty Mei Mei : Cute, Smart but childish Nguyen : Pretty, Rich but not so fun Shika : Rock Star
  • 3. This paper in brief… Complex Analytical Improved Expert Group Decision Hierarchy Choice Decision Process Problem Method Tools More Systematic & Logical Approach
  • 4. Case Study Scenario Calisto Corporation | Bandung - Indonesia "Jack of all trades, master of none" Goal : Find Calisto Corp Project Focus
  • 5. The procedure for using the AHP can be summarized as below: Comparing Defiene the Synthesizing Alternative Final Goal s with Priorities Criteria Decompose Establish Problem to Priorities Make Hierarchy of among the Criteria and Criteria and decision Subcriteria Sub Criteria
  • 6. #STEP.ONE Goal Win Paradigm. Brad Sugar on how to find Calisto Corp Project Focus the perfect job
  • 7. #STEP.ONE Goal Criteria SubCriteria Alternatives Fun Passion Knowledge #STEP.TWO Calisto Corp Project Focus CapexOpex Capital Management Skill Employee Money Benefit Social Market Growth Potential Business Expansion
  • 8. Goal Calisto Corp Project Focus Criteria 1 Passion Management positive feelings toward the project. How much they will Sub 1.1 Fun enjoy and love the activity How far will management knowledge improved by doing the project. Also Sub 1.2 Knowledge considering new skill, new contacts & network, new ideas etc. Criteria 2 Capital Sub 2.1 CapexOpex Money required to run the project Management Management self-efficacy in handling the project. This also related to Sub 2.2 Skill current experience and knowledge Employee availability in the area. Low skilled employee considered easy to Sub 2.3 Employee be found, whereas high skilled employee is harder to be found, trained and retained Criteria 3 Benefit Sub 3.1 Money Profit gained in the form of money Benefit which will be enjoyed by the community eg. Employment, better Sub 3.2 Social product available, satisfied needs Criteria 4 Potential Sub 4.1 Market Growth How big is the opportunity due to market growth, increasing demand Business How big is Calisto capability will improve to capture the opportunity of Sub 4.2 Expansion growing market
  • 9. #STEP.THREE Establish Priorities among Criteria and Sub Criteria
  • 10. #STEP.THREE Establish Priorities among Criteria and Sub Criteria << Overall Result
  • 11. #STEP.FOUR Comparing the Alternatives with Criteria Sub-criteria Assessment Technique Source Sub 1.1 Fun Pairwise Management Subjective Input Sub 1.2 Knowledge Pairwise Management Subjective Input Sub 2.1 CapexOpex Direct Accounting Report Sub 2.2 Management Skill Pairwise Management Subjective Input Sub 2.3 Employee Pairwise Management Subjective Input Sub 3.1 Money Direct Accounting Report Sub 3.2 Social Pairwise Management Subjective Input Sub 4.1 Market Growth Direct Accounting Report Sub 4.2 Business Expansion Pairwise Management Subjective Input Noted that pairwise comparison based on person judgement, therefore it is very subjective. To minimize the subjectivity, we also use direct assessment for some known parameter.
  • 12. #STEP.FOUR Comparing the Alternatives with Criteria * *used as information source for direct assessment
  • 13. #STEP.FOUR Comparing the Alternatives with Criteria << Overall Result
  • 14. #STEP.FIVE Synthesizing Final Priorities Overall Result Table 6. Project priority wth respect to criteria
  • 15. #STEP.FIVE Make the decision Calisto management decide to focus on café and printing project and terminate its operation in Clothing Merchandise and Event Organizer. Because they have used the AHP, it is easy for them to trace their thinking and to justify the steps along the way to their decision. If they have second thoughts about the final outcome, they can revisit the process and make changes if appropriate. And if they choose to, they can reveal the details of their process to their consultants and confidants, to the employee, to the shareholders, or to anyone else who might be concerned with the decision.
  • 16. Summary Analytic Hierarchy Process has shown Calisto team that the Café Project best satisfies all their criteria and judgments, followed closely by the Digital Printing Project. The other alternatives fall short of meeting their criteria. AHP can be used to help us address other case which requires complex decision process Expert Choice software plays important role in this case by: • Brings structure and measurement to Calisto planning & selecting process • Helps Calisto determine strategic priorities and optimally allocates its resources • Communicates priorities and builds consensus among management • Documents and justifies Calisto strategic decisions • Enables Calisto to move forward quickly and confidently

Editor's Notes

  1. This paper investigates the feasibility of applying the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in dealing with complex decision problem to improve the group decision making by a more systematic and logical approach. In order to gain some preliminary understanding, we begin with going through a brief literature review of Complex Decision and how AHP address it. As an example, we use a case study of Calisto Corporation, a small enterprise co-founded by writer, in using the AHP to find their focus area for further development. We also use Expert Decision Software to solve the problem presented in the case study.