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Epic research daily agri report 04 jan 2016
1. DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT
4 JANUARY 2016
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2. Market Views
2
MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL
TURMERIC
APR 9802 9860 9730 9802 +0.22% 3945
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP 1
9734.6
SUPP. 2
9667.3
PIVOT
9797.3
Turmeric short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
9864.6
RES. 2
9927.3
CORIANDER
JAN 7200 7260 7045 7100 -1.65% 3040
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT SUPP.1
7010
SUPP. 2
6920
PIVOT
7135
Coriander short term
trend is bearish and May
continue in coming
days.
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
7225
RES. 2
7350
GUARGUM
JAN 6500 6640 6480 6620 +2.48% 7313
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
6520
SUPP. 2
6420
PIVOT
6580
Guargum short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming days.
RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
6680
RES. 2
6740
CASTORSEED
JAN 3751 3802 3705 3754 +0.37% 67520
INTRADAY
LEVELS
SUPPORT
SUPP. 1
3705.3
SUPP. 2
3656.6
PIVOT
3753.6
Castorseed short term
trend is bullish and
May continue in
coming day.RESISTAN
CE
RES. 1
3802.3
RES. 2
3850.6
3. Most Active Contract
3
NCDEX INDICES
Index Value
Pre.
Close
%
Change
CASTORSEED 3751 3754 +0.37%
CHANA 4812 4805 -0.04%
CORIANDER 7200 7100 -1.65%
GUARGUM 6500 6220 +2.48%
JEERA 14370 14265 -1.21%
MUSTARD
SEED
4270 4256 -0.77%
SOYABEAN 3725 3710 -0.51%
TURMERIC 9802 9802 +0.22%
TOP LOSERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE
CHANGE
%
JEERA 20-01-2016 14270.00 -135.00 -0.94%
CORIANDER 20-01-2016 7100.00 -63.00 -0.88%
SOYABEAN 20-01-2016 3710.00 -25.00 -0.67%
RAPESEED-MUSTARD
SEED
20-01-2016 4256.00 -21.00 -0.49%
TOP GAINERS
SYMBOL EXPIRY DATE
CURRENT
PRICE
CHANGE CHANGE %
BARLEY 20-01-2016 1439.50 34.50 2.46%
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE
AKOLA
20-01-2016 2138.00 49.00 2.35%
CASTOR SEED NEW 20-01-2016 3754.00 24.00 0.64%
4. Commodities In News
4
ECONOMIC NEWS
The total cotton output in the country is estimated to be 362 lakh bales
for the 2015-16 season, which began on October 1, industry body CAI said
today. This estimate is 8.50 lakh bales lower than the October estimate of
370.50 lakh bales, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) said in a release
here. The total output for the cotton season 2014-15 stood at 382.75 lakh
bales, it added. CAI has also estimated reduction in the production as well
as consumption of cotton in the country during the cotton season 2015-16.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has estimated cotton production in
2015-16 to fall to 362 lakh bales of 170 kg each from 382.75 lakh bales in
2014-15, a decline of 5.7%. CAI has released its November estimate of the
cotton crop for the 2015-16 season, which began on October 1 2015. The
CAI has placed its November estimate of the cotton crop for the 2015-16
season at 362 lakh bales of 170 kilogram each. The projected balance sheet
drawn by the CAI estimated total cotton supply for the season 2015-16 at
454.65 lakh bales while the domestic consumption is estimated at 318.00
lakh bales thus leaving an available surplus of 136.65 lakh bales.
Rates stabilized for Chana as traders anticipate the domestic demand
to start rising from this week onwards. Even as fundamentals remained
strong, uncertainty still prevailed in the markets on regular Govt
initiatives to control rising prices even as falling stocks and lower
production reports keep supporting prices
PMentha Oil kept trading near the 900 mark as lack of strong export
demand amidst moderate arrivals in mandis kept preventing any strong
upside movement for the rates. With International markets closing for
Christmas and New Year holidays, export demand may remain weak
but domestic demand from pharma industries are reportedly picking up.
Low export demand kept preventing prices from recovering much.
Warmer weather in growing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan though
supported prices. But with rates having fallen a lot over last few weeks,
traders expect that any adverse weather may cause apprehensions of
crop damage for the standing crops—leading to moderate firmness in
prices. Weather in growing areas remain a very important factor for the
near term market sentiments. Cool weather is beneficial for crop
growth, while a warmer weather may damage the standing crop also
Guar rates did find some support over last few days even as trading
activities remained low from closure of international markets and no
strong recovery in crude oil prices. Sources do indicate however that
the downtrend too may be limited with prices having fallen a lot over
last few months.
Trading was sluggish in the spot markets as most global and domestic
centres were closed owing to New year holidays. Short term trend
looks some more weakness that could set in for the commodity. Some
apprehensions of impositions of stock limits in Madhya Pradesh for
Soybean too weighed on the market sentiments for Soy Oil as the entire
oil complex sector traded weak.
5. 5
Fundamental Watch : Castorseed
CASTORSEED
PRICES AT KEY SPOT MARKET
National Market Update
Rajkot Castor Seed futures open with bearish tonne taking clue from weak inner
tonne prevalent in the cash market. Ample stock from previous season and higher crop
estimate (over 15 lakh tonne ) this year have restricted bulls to go for speculative
buying. Seed arrivals in Rajkot was registered at higher level to 15000 bags against
7000 bags in previous trading session. It is being traded at 685 to 720 per 20 kg and
may stay steady in coming days.
Good production prospects this year despite good export volume may continue to
restrict price. With increasing possibility of ample supply from new crop and active
bears operators have weakened sentiments in the cash market. As prices are ruling at
lower level, slight recovery is expected in futures market. However, overall tone
remains bearish. At peak arrival season prices may hover in the range of Rs 3000 to
3200 per qtl.
India exported 54.60 % lower castor oil in the week ending 27th Dec-2015.Total oil
export was registered at 7125.44 tonne against 19775 tonne exported in the last week
of Nov-2015.China continued to maintain the status of biggest buyer once again
buying 3158.65 tonne last week. Exporters realized 0.60 % lower average FoB quote
last week. It was $1333.09 per tonne. The highest and lowest quotes were $1959 &
$1000 per tonne
New arrival is expected one month earlier and may hit market by Feb end. Till then
stockists would try to drag market up by restricting stock release. Stake holder should
buy seed around Rs 3500 to Rs3600 per qtl and hold it for one and a half month.
Production picture for 2015-16 would be clear in Global Castor Conference in Feb,
scheduled to be held on 12 th Feb in Ahmadabad.
CENTER 02-Jan-16 31-Dec-15 Change
JODHPUR 3600 3650 -50
AHEMDABAAD NA NA -
RAJKOT 3490 3460 30
PATAN 3700 3710 -10
KADI 3625 3600 25
GANDHINAGAR 3600 3625 -25
JUNAGADH NA CLOSED -
6. Technical Outlook
6
SELL CORIANDER JAN BELOW 7050 TARGET 7005 6855 SL
ABOVE 7115
BUY GUARGUM JAN 15 LOTSABOVE 6640 TARGET 6690 6760
SL BELOW 6580
BUY TURMERIC APRIL ABOVE 9930 TARGET 9974 10034 SL
BELOW 9870
BUY CASTORSEED JAN ABOVE 3790 TARGET 3815 3845 SL
BELOW 3765
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