Akash Paun, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government, delivered this presentation at the free Forum for Change seminar on working with a hung parliament on Thursday 27 May 2010. The Forum for Change is a national network of campaigners and policy workers across the community and voluntary sector. For more information about the Forum for Change please visit www.forumforchange.org.uk.

2. The 2010 Election: An exception to the rule? Coalition Majority Labour National Government Conservative Liberal Unionist 1890-99 1900-09 1910-19 1920-29 1930-39 1940-49 1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-10 Minority

3. But the two-party system has been declining for decades

6. Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

7. Are coalitions less stable? Source: Woldendorp, Keman and Budge (2000), Party government in 48 democracies (1945-1998): composition, duration and personnel, p.86.

8. Why do coalitions fail? Cause of breakdown Example Scandal In 1994 the Irish Labour Party withdrew from coalition with Fianna Fail after financial scandals involving the larger FF. A new coalition with formed without an election between Labour and Fine Gael. External crisis The Icelandic coalition fell in 2009 in the midst of the country’s financial crisis. Dispute over economic or fiscal policy A Swedish coalition government collapsed in 1981 after disagreement over whose taxes should be cut as the government sought to reduce the size of the state. Irreconcilable policy dispute The Belgian government broke up in April 2010 over failure to agree on the status of a region on the border of French and Dutch Belgium. Breakdown in trust The Dutch government recently broke up after relations between two of coalition parties’ leaderships deteriorated. One partner spies a better option In 1982, the junior partner in the German coalition joined with the opposition to overthrow the government and form a new coalition. Party split New Zealand’s government collapsed in 2002 after the junior Alliance Party disintegrated over disagreement on NZ’s involvement in the war in Afghanistan.

9. Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

10. The formation of the UK coalition was swift in comparative terms Source: de Winter, L. (1995), ‘The role of parliament in government formation and resignation’, in Doring, H. (ed), Parliaments and Majority Rule in Western Europe , p.118.

11. Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

12. All the major spending departments are led by Conservatives

13. Challenges and tradeoffs facing coalition governments

14. Are coalitions less effective at controlling spending?

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16. Coalition and minority governments elsewhere have successfully managed fiscal consolidation processes New Zealand (1992-95) United Kingdom (1993-2000) Canada (1992-00) Australia (1993-99) Iceland (2003-05) Ireland (1985-89) Sweden (1982-87) Finland (1993-00) Sweden (1993-00) Source: Wagschal & Wenzelburger (2008) IfG analysis Single party Multi party Minority Majority