A presentation for European Section students of the political situation which led David Cameron to announce an in-out EU referendum for June 23rd 2016.

1. After a weekend of extremelyAfter a weekend of extremely
difficult negotiations lasting moredifficult negotiations lasting more
than 30 hours, David Cameronthan 30 hours, David Cameron
announced that he had succeededannounced that he had succeeded
in renegotiating Britain'sin renegotiating Britain's
relationship with the EU. Confidentrelationship with the EU. Confident
that he has ensured a special dealthat he has ensured a special deal
for the UK, he announced the datefor the UK, he announced the date
of June 23of June 23rdrd
2016 for the refrendum2016 for the refrendum
on Britain's future in the EU – an IN-on Britain's future in the EU – an IN-
OUT referendum.OUT referendum.

2. The UK and the EU – a love-hate relationshipThe UK and the EU – a love-hate relationship
RECAPRECAP
1951 – the UK refused to join the ECSC1951 – the UK refused to join the ECSC
1957 – the UK refused to join the EEC1957 – the UK refused to join the EEC
1960 – the UK created EFTA, a free trade agreement1960 – the UK created EFTA, a free trade agreement
outside the EECoutside the EEC
1961/1967 – the UK was refused entry into the EEC1961/1967 – the UK was refused entry into the EEC
1973 – the UK finally joined the EEC1973 – the UK finally joined the EEC
1984 – Thatcher negotiated the British rebate « I want my1984 – Thatcher negotiated the British rebate « I want my
money back ! »money back ! »
1992 – John Major signed the Maastricht Treaty but1992 – John Major signed the Maastricht Treaty but
negotiated opt-out clauses and the priniciple ofnegotiated opt-out clauses and the priniciple of
subsidiaritysubsidiarity
1993 – UKIP was formed by politicians and other anti-1993 – UKIP was formed by politicians and other anti-
federalists hostile to the Maastricht Treatyfederalists hostile to the Maastricht Treaty
2013 – Cameron proposed an in-out referendum on2013 – Cameron proposed an in-out referendum on
Britian's place in the EUBritian's place in the EU

3. Why did Cameron propose a referendum ?
Cameron believed he needed to make a new coalition to be re-elected … but with who ?
UKIP, strong from its victory in the EU elections 2014, was the new third party in
British politics. To woo (séduire) UKIP voters, Cameron promised them a
referendum on the EU if he were re-elected.

4. 2015 General Election results
Unexpectedly, Cameron won a majority in parliament without need of a coalition (besides, no
one in UKIP voted for him). HOWEVER, the referendum on the EU was a campaign promise
so now he has no choice : he has to organize it even though he no longer needs it !

5. Cameron's speech on EU/UK renegotiations – London 2015
The four renegotiating issues :
1 Britain would not have to accept any further
movement towards European integration
2 The EU would have to become more
competitive
3 EU members outside the eurozone would not
be discriminated against by members in the
eurozone and their monetary policies – this to
protect the City in London.
4 The UK would be able to freeze in-work
benefit payments to EU citizens living in the UK
for four years. He also wanted to stop child
benefit pay.
Cameron believed he could negotiate a new deal for Britain. His critics said he was
asking for too little. The first three points seemed feasible, the last point would be much
more difficult to obtain because it was against the principles of EU law … but it was a key
issue in the British press and public opinion.

7. What deal did he manage to negotiate ?What deal did he manage to negotiate ?
COMPETITIVITY – no problem, many other member states
agreed with him
SOVEREIGNTY – EU treaty references to ever-closer
Union do not apply to the United Kingdom
EUROZONE – any one member outside the eurozone
has the right to question and delay problematical
eurozone policy. France refused the idea of any state
having a veto.
BENEFITS – a 7 year emergency break on
in-work benefits. He wanted 13 years but
the VISEGARD group blocked him. Child
benefits will not be stopped but indexed to
the country of origin starting in 2020 … not
exactly what he or public opinion wanted.

8. The referendum is set for June
23rd
2016. A simple in-out
choice ? What will be the main
issues in the next 4 months ?
1 The migrant crisis and how it is handled by the EU
2 The primacy of British law over European law
3 The question of democratic accountability
4 The economic consequences of leaving the EU : GDP / unemployment
5 The continuing problem of benefits for EU migrants
6 The reaction of Scotland to a BREXIT
7 The statute of EU workers in the UK and British workers in the EU
Cameron has said that it will be a non-party referendum which means each politician can
campaign to stay or to leave. Recent polls say the STAY vote is at 51% and the LEAVE
vote at 49% … but around 20% of people are still unsure. The LEAVE vote is higher
amongst the older generation whilst the young generation are more pro-EU.