A presentation from 'Achieving change through partnership', the National Collaborative Outreach Programme national conference.

1. Closing the Gap?
Research from the Education Policy Institute
David Robinson
September 2017
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2. Closing the Gap?
• Evidence from Primary and Secondary schools
• 16-19 year olds
• What might help?
• Evidence on closing the HE access gap
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3. • Gap in attainment between disadvantaged pupils
and their peers.
• Early years, primary and secondary schools.
• Variation across the country
• Trend since 2007
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4. Methodology (in one slide)
Average “educational age” of
disadvantaged pupils
Age related
expectations
Average rank
Results
Average “educational age” of
other pupils
Age related
expectations
Average rank
Results
Attainment gap (months)
4

5. The gap grows from reception to
end of KS4…
5

6. Gaps narrowing…
6
Primary school
Secondary school
Early Years
0
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gap(months)
…very slowly

7. …and widening for most
disadvantaged
• Persistently disadvantaged (80% of school life as
FSM)
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23.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

8. Huge regional variation
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9. Huge regional variation: KS4
Smallest gaps
in London e.g.
Barnett 8
months (-5)
Largest gap in
Isle of Wight – 29
months (+3)
Gap more rural by
end of KS4
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8 month increase
in Darlington, to
25 months
14 month
decrease in
Rutland, to 8
months

10. Gap stagnating at age 19
Level 2 or higher with
English and maths
27
L3 or higher
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Age19: FSM gap
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11. Evidence on what might help
address the gap
• Focus on early years quality
• Teacher CPD
• Better understanding of why some areas have had
success
12

12. Less evidence
? System infrastructure: academies or grammars
? Funding: Improvements possible, but not always
necessary
? Success of London: funding? London Challenge?
Early sponsored academies? Ethnic mix?
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13. What about HE access?
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14. 80% increase in proportion of
disadvantaged accessing HE….
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…but smaller change for high-
tariff HEIs…
Source: Joining the elite, Reform (2017)

15. …and little change in the gap
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15

16. Access gap seems to be caused by prior
attainment…
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…though not for high status HEIs
Source: Family Background and University Success (Crawford, Dearden, Micklewright, Vignoles)
Difference between 20% richest and 20% poorest

17. …and differences in outcomes
remain
• Less likely to access high status HE
• Degree completion lower
• Less likely to get 1st or 2:1
• Lower earnings from same degree!
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Source: Family Background and University
Success (Crawford, Dearden, Micklewright,
Vignoles)

18. Summary of evidence
• Gaps widen through schooling
• Narrowing very slowly…
• More disadvantaged young people accessing HE
• HE access gap remains
• Issues of quality of access
• Outcomes gaps still a problem
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19. So what does this suggest should
be done?
• Raising attainment efforts should focus on earlier
phases
• Outreach activities
• Focus on raising aspirations early in secondary school
• Focus on quality (subject and institution)
• Full range of routes
• Continued support once entered HE
• Especially if using contextualised admissions
• More evidence on what works!
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20. Questions or comments?
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