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Outline
• Introduction
• The science of global
warming
• Who is to blame?
• Climate crisis in the
Philippines
• Half Measures & False
Solutions
• People's responses
• Our calls
Weather
the particular state of the atmosphere in a certain
region at a certain time. e.g. Rainy, windy, sunny, cloudy
Climate
the long term weather trend of a certain region over a
time period       e.g. Tropical, temperate

 Climate Change
 change in the state of the climate that can be
    identified by changes in the mean and/or the
    variability of its properties, and that persists for an
    extended period, typically decades or longer
 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Temperature rise
Rise in temperature was
unprecedented since 1850
1900s – hottest century
1995 to 2006, (except
1996)-- hottest decade
2005 and 1998 – hottest
years;
Increase in temperature in
the last 50 years was twice
faster than last 100 years
Sea level rise
Melting snow and ice




      Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007
Extreme weather events




     Increasing Strength and frequency of Typhoons (Category 4/5)

Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
Vulnerability
   Factors and conditions
    adversely affecting the ability
    of the community to
    respond,cope with or recover
    easily from disaster events.
       High Poverty Incidence
       High Inflation Rates
       Low wages despite the
        increasing daily cost of living
       High unemployment and
        underemployment rate
       Landlessness/Inequitable
        distribution of country’s
        resources
Poor countries like the Philippines are vulnerable
to enhanced hazards due to climate change

   Impacts are worse                                                100%


                                                                     80%
      Lack of




                                     Percentage affected
                                                                     60%                                           LDC
       financial,institutional and                                                                                 Dev'ing
                                                                                                                   CIT

       technological capacity and
                                                                     40%
                                                                                                                   Dev'ed



       access to knowledge                                           20%


                                                                      0%

   Impact disproportionately                                                   1970s    1980s    1990s    2000s



    upon poor within countries                                       4,000



    Exacerbates inequities in
                                        Number affected (Millions)
                                                                    3,000


    health status and access to                                      2,000
                                                                                                                   Dev'ed
                                                                                                                   CIT
                                                                                                                   Dev'ing
    adequate food, clean water                                                                                     LDC



    and other resources.                                             1,000



                                                                            -
                                                                                 1970s    1980s    1990s   2000s
Climate Change in the Philippines
 From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the
  number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007
 The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger, especially
  since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is a fairly recent
  category.
 Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by
  408% from 2003 to 2006
 Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines
  covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006
Greenhouse effect
                                                               Increasing levels of GHGs
                                                               in the atmosphere make
                                                               for a warmer world leading
                                                               to abrupt changes in
                                                               climate!
                       Greenhouse gases
                       (GHGs) trap heat from
                       the sun to keep the
                       Earth warm.




                                                              CO2
                                                     N2O CO2       CO2 HFCs
                 Methane                                       N2O
                                Nitrous Oxide      CO2 CH4                  CH4
Carbon Dioxide                                                         HFCs
                 CH4          NO2                     CH       N2O PFCs     SF6CO2
      CO2                                           CO2 4 CH4
                                                 CO2 2
                                                    CO                  SF6CO2
                                                CO2CO                          SF6
                                      SF6             2


                                      HFCs
  H2O
                                      PFCs
Water vapor
                                                                             UNEP
GHG gases Generated by
    Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel combustion, land clearing for
             (CO2) agriculture, cement production

                     Livestock production, extraction of fossil fuels,
    Methane (CH4)
                     rice cultivation, landfills, sewage

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Industrial processes, fertilizer use

      Hydrofluoro- Leakage from refrigerators, aerosols, air
    carbons (HFCs) conditioners

                     Aluminum production, semiconductor
 Perfluoro-carbons
                     industry
Sulfur Hexafluoride
               (SF6)
                     Electrical insulationmagnesium smelting
Surging GHG emissions
US and other imperialist countries
                       US is the largest
                       emtter in volume
                       and per capita
Transnational corporations
 1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest        2004, the 10 biggest oil TNCs in
  producers of oil are TNCs (BP         the US control around 55% of
  Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil,              the oil production while the top
  Royal Dutch Shell at Chevron-         50 controls 77%
  Texaco).                             2006, Exxon Mobil Corporation
 2005, oil TNCs like British           reported — TNC having the
  Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell         biggest GHG emission in the
                                        world (150 million tons-6th
  Dutch controls 18% of global oil      largest if it were a country ) –
  reserves                              and a net profit of $39.5 billion
 TNCs owns the biggest                 from gross income of $377.6
  agricultural plantations, logging     billion
  corporations, large dams, energy
  plants, etc..
Role of
   International finance
                                International
    capital                     Finance
   Stimulate production and
    sale of consumer goods
   Cover debt service burden
    and budgetary deficits
   Developing countries
    forced to follow
    prescriptions of the IMF
    and the WB which open up
    resources and markets
Philippine Government
   Large scale plunder of the
    environment
      Without benefit to the

       majority of our people
      Benefits only a small

       segment of society
   Government policies
    aggravates our climate
    vulnerability
       Biofuels Act
       Oil deregulation law
       Mining Act 1995
       EPIRA
       Forestry Code
       Neoliberal Globalization
       Corruption
Philippine GHG emissions
GHGs in RP
 1999, Philippines emitted
  75,998,000 metric tons of CO2
  or 0.3% of world total
  emission.
 From 1990 to 1999 our CO2
  emission increased by 72%.
 Currently we have a higher
  CO2 emission than some
  industrialized countries like
  Switzerland (0.1%), New
  Zealand (0.1%), Sweden
  (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and
  Norway (0.2%), and also to
  some oil producing countries
  (OPEC members) like Bahrain
  (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria
  (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
Climate change timeline
 1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement
  attains strong influence, spreads concern about
  global degradation.
 1979: First World Climate Conference adopts
  climate change as major issue and calls on
  governments "to foresee and prevent potential
  man­made changes in climate.”
 1985: First major international conference on the
  greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that
  greenhouse gases will "in the first half of the next
  century, cause a rise of global mean temperature
  which is greater than any in man's history."
 1990 First IPCC report says world has
  been warming and future warming seems
  likely. Industry lobbyists and some
  scientists dispute the tentative
  conclusions.
 1992: Climate Change Convention, signed
  by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent
 "dangerous" warming from greenhouse
 gases and sets initial target of reducing
 emissions from industrialised countries to
 1990 levels by the year 2000.
United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
                 Ultimate Objective is the
                  "stabilization of greenhouse gas
                  concentrations in the
                  atmosphere at a level that would
                  prevent dangerous
                  anthropogenic human-induced
                  interference with the climate
                  system.
                 Overarching Principle: Equity
                  and Common but Differentiated
                  Responsibilities
UNFCCC and KYOTO PROTOCOL
               International agreement under the
                United Nations Framework Convention
                on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
               reduce GHG emissions, on average by
                about 5% between 2008-2012 relative
                to 1990
               The flexibility mechanisms
            •   Funding mechanisms to assist
                developing countries
               175 countries except US and Australia
                (Australia later signed on Kyoto)
PREAMBLE
 ...“Noting that the largest share of historical and
  current global emissions of greenhouse gases has
  originated in developed countries, that per capita
  emissions in developing countries are still relatively
  low, and that the share of global emissions originating
  in developing countries will grow to meet their social
  and development needs”
PRINCIPLES
 Article 3.2 specific needs and special circumstances of
  developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable
  to the adverse effects of climate change

 Article 3.3 Precautionary measures: comprehensive
  response, socio-economic contexts, comprise all economic
  sectors

 Article 3.4 sustainable development; policies to
  protect the climate system should be integrated with
  national development programs, taking into account
  that economic development is essential for adopting
  measures to address climate change.
Commitment on
                    Financial Resources,
                    Art 4.3-4.4
 Developed country Parties “shall provide new
  and additional financial resources” to
   Meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing
    country Parties in preparing their national
    communications
   Meet the agreed full incremental costs of
    implementation of obligations under Article 4.1
   Taking into account the need for adequacy and
    predictability in the flow of funds, and the importance
    of appropriate burden sharing among the developed
    country Parties.
Commitment on
                    Adaptation Article 4.4

 Developed country Parties …shall also assist the
  developing country Parties that are particularly
  vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change
  in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse
  effects.
 Financing of adaptation is a commitment, not a
  concession, or social responsibility, or an act of
  charity.
 “Particular vulnerabilities defined in the
  Convention (Arts. 4.8, 4.9, 4.10;
Technology Transfer,
                    Article 4.5
 Developed country Parties…”shall take all practicable steps
  to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the
  transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound
  technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly
  developing country Parties..”
 “support the development and enhancement of
  endogenous capacities and technologies of developing
  country Parties…”
 Other Parties and organizations … may also assist in
  facilitating the transfer of such technologies.
Short term
Community based disaster

response
Capacity building for          Long term
vulnerable communities          Defend our patrimony and
Popularize and implement
                                communities against foreign
proper and sustainable use of   and local plunder
our natural resources
                                Work for social change –
mass education campaigns in

communities on the root         structural and systematic;
causes, consequences and        towards a society where human
genuine solutions to climate    rights, national patrimony,
change                          genuine land reform, and
                               national industrialization is
                                pursued
   Deep and drastic cuts by the world’s top current and
    historical emitters
   Protect our environment and national resources from
    imperialist plunder
   Uphold the right of nations to advance and develop in
    sustainable and ecological manner, ensure self
    sufficiency in food and agriculture
   Defend our peoples rights to access and control the
    commons, genuine agrarian reform
   Work towards self-reliant ustainable, independent
    and progressive local economy.
In the end, those gambling in Las Vegas lose more
than they gain. As a society, we are gambling –
with our big banks, with our nuclear power
facilities, with our planet. As in Las Vegas, the
lucky few - the bankers that put our economy at
risk and the owners of energy companies that put
our planet at risk - may walk off with a mint. But
on average and almost certainly, we as a society,
like all gamblers, will lose.
-Joseph Stiglitz
Multisectoral formations
   Philippine Climate Watch
    Alliance: broad, national
   People's Action on Climate c
    Change: International
   People's Movement on
    Climate Change:
    International, People's
    Protocol on Climate
    Change
Let us act now!
Maraming salamat po!

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Climate change science, politics and urgent action

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  • 2. Outline • Introduction • The science of global warming • Who is to blame? • Climate crisis in the Philippines • Half Measures & False Solutions • People's responses • Our calls
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  • 7. Weather the particular state of the atmosphere in a certain region at a certain time. e.g. Rainy, windy, sunny, cloudy Climate the long term weather trend of a certain region over a time period e.g. Tropical, temperate Climate Change change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
  • 8. Temperature rise Rise in temperature was unprecedented since 1850 1900s – hottest century 1995 to 2006, (except 1996)-- hottest decade 2005 and 1998 – hottest years; Increase in temperature in the last 50 years was twice faster than last 100 years
  • 10. Melting snow and ice Minimum arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2007
  • 11. Extreme weather events Increasing Strength and frequency of Typhoons (Category 4/5) Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005
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  • 14. Vulnerability  Factors and conditions adversely affecting the ability of the community to respond,cope with or recover easily from disaster events.  High Poverty Incidence  High Inflation Rates  Low wages despite the increasing daily cost of living  High unemployment and underemployment rate  Landlessness/Inequitable distribution of country’s resources
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  • 16. Poor countries like the Philippines are vulnerable to enhanced hazards due to climate change  Impacts are worse 100% 80%  Lack of Percentage affected 60% LDC financial,institutional and Dev'ing CIT technological capacity and 40% Dev'ed access to knowledge 20% 0%  Impact disproportionately 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s upon poor within countries 4,000 Exacerbates inequities in Number affected (Millions)  3,000 health status and access to 2,000 Dev'ed CIT Dev'ing adequate food, clean water LDC and other resources. 1,000 - 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
  • 17. Climate Change in the Philippines  From 27 typhoons during the period 2000-2003, the number ominously increased to 39 from 2004-2007  The typhoons are getting stronger and stronger, especially since the late 1990s. Typhoon signal no. 4 is a fairly recent category.  Total damages brought about by typhoons increased by 408% from 2003 to 2006  Seven of the 20 deadliest typhoons in the Philippines covering the period 1947-2006 occurred in 1990-2006
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  • 19. Greenhouse effect Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate! Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm. CO2 N2O CO2 CO2 HFCs Methane N2O Nitrous Oxide CO2 CH4 CH4 Carbon Dioxide HFCs CH4 NO2 CH N2O PFCs SF6CO2 CO2 CO2 4 CH4 CO2 2 CO SF6CO2 CO2CO SF6 SF6 2 HFCs H2O PFCs Water vapor UNEP
  • 20. GHG gases Generated by Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel combustion, land clearing for (CO2) agriculture, cement production Livestock production, extraction of fossil fuels, Methane (CH4) rice cultivation, landfills, sewage Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Industrial processes, fertilizer use Hydrofluoro- Leakage from refrigerators, aerosols, air carbons (HFCs) conditioners Aluminum production, semiconductor Perfluoro-carbons industry Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) Electrical insulationmagnesium smelting
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  • 25. US and other imperialist countries US is the largest emtter in volume and per capita
  • 26. Transnational corporations  1998, 4 out of the 11 biggest  2004, the 10 biggest oil TNCs in producers of oil are TNCs (BP the US control around 55% of Amoco-Arco, Exxon Mobil, the oil production while the top Royal Dutch Shell at Chevron- 50 controls 77% Texaco).  2006, Exxon Mobil Corporation  2005, oil TNCs like British reported — TNC having the Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Shell biggest GHG emission in the world (150 million tons-6th Dutch controls 18% of global oil largest if it were a country ) – reserves and a net profit of $39.5 billion  TNCs owns the biggest from gross income of $377.6 agricultural plantations, logging billion corporations, large dams, energy plants, etc..
  • 27. Role of  International finance International capital Finance  Stimulate production and sale of consumer goods  Cover debt service burden and budgetary deficits  Developing countries forced to follow prescriptions of the IMF and the WB which open up resources and markets
  • 28. Philippine Government  Large scale plunder of the environment  Without benefit to the majority of our people  Benefits only a small segment of society  Government policies aggravates our climate vulnerability  Biofuels Act  Oil deregulation law  Mining Act 1995  EPIRA  Forestry Code  Neoliberal Globalization  Corruption
  • 29. Philippine GHG emissions GHGs in RP  1999, Philippines emitted 75,998,000 metric tons of CO2 or 0.3% of world total emission.  From 1990 to 1999 our CO2 emission increased by 72%.  Currently we have a higher CO2 emission than some industrialized countries like Switzerland (0.1%), New Zealand (0.1%), Sweden (0.2%), Ireland (0.2%) and Norway (0.2%), and also to some oil producing countries (OPEC members) like Bahrain (0.1%), Libya (0.2%), Nigeria (0.2%) and Kuwait (0.2%)
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  • 31. Climate change timeline  1970 First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation.  1979: First World Climate Conference adopts climate change as major issue and calls on governments "to foresee and prevent potential man­made changes in climate.”  1985: First major international conference on the greenhouse effect at Villach, Austria, warns that greenhouse gases will "in the first half of the next century, cause a rise of global mean temperature which is greater than any in man's history."
  • 32.  1990 First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. Industry lobbyists and some scientists dispute the tentative conclusions.  1992: Climate Change Convention, signed by 154 nations in Rio, agrees to prevent "dangerous" warming from greenhouse gases and sets initial target of reducing emissions from industrialised countries to 1990 levels by the year 2000.
  • 33. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)  Ultimate Objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system.  Overarching Principle: Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
  • 34. UNFCCC and KYOTO PROTOCOL  International agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)  reduce GHG emissions, on average by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990  The flexibility mechanisms • Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries  175 countries except US and Australia (Australia later signed on Kyoto)
  • 35. PREAMBLE  ...“Noting that the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low, and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet their social and development needs”
  • 36. PRINCIPLES  Article 3.2 specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change  Article 3.3 Precautionary measures: comprehensive response, socio-economic contexts, comprise all economic sectors  Article 3.4 sustainable development; policies to protect the climate system should be integrated with national development programs, taking into account that economic development is essential for adopting measures to address climate change.
  • 37. Commitment on Financial Resources, Art 4.3-4.4  Developed country Parties “shall provide new and additional financial resources” to  Meet the agreed full costs incurred by developing country Parties in preparing their national communications  Meet the agreed full incremental costs of implementation of obligations under Article 4.1  Taking into account the need for adequacy and predictability in the flow of funds, and the importance of appropriate burden sharing among the developed country Parties.
  • 38. Commitment on Adaptation Article 4.4  Developed country Parties …shall also assist the developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to those adverse effects.  Financing of adaptation is a commitment, not a concession, or social responsibility, or an act of charity.  “Particular vulnerabilities defined in the Convention (Arts. 4.8, 4.9, 4.10;
  • 39. Technology Transfer, Article 4.5  Developed country Parties…”shall take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties, particularly developing country Parties..”  “support the development and enhancement of endogenous capacities and technologies of developing country Parties…”  Other Parties and organizations … may also assist in facilitating the transfer of such technologies.
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  • 41. Short term Community based disaster response Capacity building for Long term vulnerable communities Defend our patrimony and Popularize and implement communities against foreign proper and sustainable use of and local plunder our natural resources Work for social change – mass education campaigns in communities on the root structural and systematic; causes, consequences and towards a society where human genuine solutions to climate rights, national patrimony, change genuine land reform, and  national industrialization is pursued
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  • 43. Deep and drastic cuts by the world’s top current and historical emitters  Protect our environment and national resources from imperialist plunder  Uphold the right of nations to advance and develop in sustainable and ecological manner, ensure self sufficiency in food and agriculture  Defend our peoples rights to access and control the commons, genuine agrarian reform  Work towards self-reliant ustainable, independent and progressive local economy.
  • 44. In the end, those gambling in Las Vegas lose more than they gain. As a society, we are gambling – with our big banks, with our nuclear power facilities, with our planet. As in Las Vegas, the lucky few - the bankers that put our economy at risk and the owners of energy companies that put our planet at risk - may walk off with a mint. But on average and almost certainly, we as a society, like all gamblers, will lose. -Joseph Stiglitz
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  • 50. Multisectoral formations  Philippine Climate Watch Alliance: broad, national  People's Action on Climate c Change: International  People's Movement on Climate Change: International, People's Protocol on Climate Change
  • 51. Let us act now!

Editor's Notes

  1. Magandanghaponposainyonglahat. Dahilbahagipoitong International Festival, at masmagalingnamantayongumunawang Ingles, kaysapag-unawanilangTagalog. Sa pagkakataongito ay mag-ingles munatayo, at sisikapinnatingpasimplehinitongpaliwanagsaatingtinatalakayna Climate Change. Kung may hindimaunawaangsalita o paliwanagpakitaasnalamangngkamay at ipapaliwanag n gating mgakaibigansa AGHAM.We have seen that not only Filipinos are suffering from impacts of climate change, but people from other countries, as well. In order to find solutions to this problem which we know is bound to get worse, we have to know what causes it. We will now try to understand how much of this problem is natural, and how much is caused by someone else? So now we turn to science, as this is their task. 2:08
  2. A planet's climate is decided by its mass, its distance from the sun and the composition of its atmosphere. Earth's atmosphere is 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, and 1% other gases. These radiatively active gases are known as greenhouse gases because they act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface and enable it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse. This blanketing is known as the natural greenhouse effect. Without the greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be roughly -20°C. The climates on Mars and Venus are very different, but very stable and highly predictable. The Earth's climate is unstable and rather unpredictable as compared with that of the other two planet
  3. s.
  4. Climate change in IPCC usage refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.
  5. Image source: Global Warming ArtRecent global temperatures demonstrate human-induced warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.19°C per decade, in very good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short-term fluctuations are occurring as usual, but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend. (copenhagen diagnosis, 2009)
  6. Global Sea-level Rise. The loss of ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased and will contribute substantially to global sea level rise.Image source: Global Sea-level Rise." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2009. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-sea-level-rise>.Copenhagen diagnosis:Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets. Sea-level predictions revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4; for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as ~ 2 meters sea level rise by 2100. Sea level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperatures have been stabilized, and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.
  7. Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990. Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climatemodels. The area of summertime sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% less than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models. (Copenhagen diagnosis)Image: Arctic sea ice extent over the five days leading up to and including September 16, 2007 compared to theaverage sea-ice minimum extent for the period 1979- 2006. Sourced from the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center ScientificVisualization Studio.Copenhagen diagnosis:The observed summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has far exceeded the worst-caseprojections from climate models of IPCC AR4.The warming commitment associated with existing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels meansit is very likely that in the coming decades the summer Arctic Ocean will become ice-free,although the precise timing of this remains uncertain.Satellite observations show a small increase of Antarctic sea-ice extent and changes toseasonality, although there is considerable regional variability. This is most likely due tochanges in Southern Ocean winds associated with stratospheric ozone-depletion.
  8. Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets,Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warmingcontinues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increases strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized. The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2 °C above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – needs to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-95% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.Copenhagen diagnosis
  9. Potential climate change impacts . If greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising, climatic changes are likely to result. Those changes will potentially have wide-ranging effects on the environment and socio-economic and related sectors, such as health, agriculture, forests, water resources, coastal areas and biodiversity.Image sourge: "Potential climate change impacts ." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2000. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential-climate-change-impacts>.Health • Increased deaths due to floods, heat and cold waves, storms, fires, and drought• Changes in the distribution of certain infectious diseases, including malaria• Increased cardiorespiratory diseases• Increased disease spread from contaminated and polluted drinking water supplies• Increased diarrheal disease• Increased malnutritionFood and Agriculture• Reduced crop yields• Shifting growing zones• Increasing hunger and malnutrition• Declining fish yieldsEcosystems Massive extinctions• Animal and plant migration• Increased wildfires, flooding, and drought• Decreased forest coverage, expanding arid lands, and other similar changes•Ocean acidification and coral reef bleaching• Spread of exotic, invasive plants and animalsFresh Water • Increased droughts• Increased heavy precipitation events and flooding• Decreased drinking and freshwater supplies and availability• Glacier melt decline• Increased salinization of freshwater sourcesCoasts• Increased coastal flooding, especially in low-lying islands and heavily populated delta regions• Increased soil erosion• Increased intensity and strength of tropical storms
  10. Source:Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast AsiaArief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia FranciscoEconomy and Environment Program for Southeast AsiaAdaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices, processes, or structures can moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change). It can be written in equation form as follows: adaptive capacity = f (socio economic factors, technology, infrastructure)
  11. Source: NSCBPhilippines is disaster proneIn 2008, 253 natural and human-induced disasters affecting 8.5 million peopleMost devastating disaster: tropical cyclones affecting more than 1 million (Typhoon Frank; internal displacements affecting 684,682 (landing as in top place according to the Norwegian Refugee Center)In 2009, Disaster figures will surely double the 2008 figuresOndoy, Pepeng, floodings in MindanaoClimate change aggravates environmental hazardsIn the Philippines, disasters whether climate-induced or not add up to the already impoverished situation of the majority of Filipino families who are living below the poverty lineThe harmful effects of climate change and the disasters it induced bear heavily on the most vulnerable or marginalized segments of the Philippine population especially the poor peasants
  12. 3. The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. Of the remainder, some is absorbed by the atmosphere but most is absorbed by the land and oceans. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation. The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane and nitrous oxide, and together create a natural greenhouse effect. However, human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase. Note: Greenhouse gases are mixed throughout in the atmosphere. (AR4 IPCC)
  13. Carbon dioxide CO2 - second most common GHG. makes up about 25% of the natural greenhouse effect. Burning of oil and gas (for heat, transportation, industry), cement manufacturing, deforestation and other land uses. Also occurs naturally through photosynthesis, volcanoes, forest fires. Methane CH4- third most common GHG ; Oil and gas production, coal mining, rice paddies, dams, landfills. Occurs naturally as things decompose and from livestock digestion. Nitrous oxide N2O - Burning of oil, gas, coal, and wood, fertilizers, coal mining. Also occurs naturally. OTHERS: Water vapor, Sulfur hexafluoride SF6, Perfluocarbons PFCs, Hydroflurocarbons HFCs
  14. Image: Global atmospheric concentration of CO2. Atmospheric CO2 has increased from a pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv to about 367 ppmv at present (ppmv= parts per million by volume). CO2 concentration data from before 1958 are from ice core measurements taken in Antarctica and from 1958 onwards are from the Mauna Loa measurement site. The smooth curve is based on a hundred year running mean. It is evident that the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations has been occurring since the onset of industrialization. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.Image source: "Global atmospheric concentration of CO2." UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library. 2000. UNEP/GRID-Arendal. 18 Dec 2009 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global-atmospheric-concentration-of-co2>.Latest data: Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were 40% higher than thosein 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present-day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a25% probability that warming exceeds 2°C, even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increases the chances of exceeding 2°C warming. (Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009)
  15. Differences In Greenhouse Gas Emission Around The WorldAs the World Resources Institute highlights there is a huge contrast between developed/industrialized nations and poorer developing countries in greenhouse emissions, as well as the reasons for those emissions. For example: In terms of historical emissions, industrialized countries account for roughly 80% of the carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere to date. Since 1950, the U.S. has emitted a cumulative total of roughly 50.7 billion tons of carbon, while China (4.6 times more populous) and India (3.5 times more populous) have emitted only 15.7 and 4.2 billion tons respectively (although their numbers will rise).Annually, more than 60 percent of global industrial carbon dioxide emissions originate in industrialized countries, where only about 20 percent of the world’s population resides.Much of the growth in emissions in developing countries results from the provision of basic human needs for growing populations, while emissions in industrialized countries contribute to growth in a standard of living that is already far above that of the average person worldwide. This is exemplified by the large contrasts in per capita carbons emissions between industrialized and developing countries. Per capita emissions of carbon in the U.S. are over 20 times higher than India, 12 times higher than Brazil and seven times higher than China.At the 1997 Kyoto Conference, industrialized countries were committed to an overall reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases to 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period 2008—2012. (The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in its 1990 report that a 60% reduction in emissions was needed…)(http://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction)
  16. The United States Is The World’s Largest Emitter Of Greenhouse Gases Per CapitaAround 2007, China surpassed the US as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases in terms of total output. Per person (“per capita”), however, China’s emissions are much smaller.Until recently, the United States was the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. However, it remains the largest emitter when measured in terms of emissions per person.Due to its much longer period of industrialization, the US has emitted far more into the atmosphere than China (greenhouse gases such as CO2 linger on in the atmosphere for decades).In addition, the US:Accounts for roughly four percent of the world’s population;Accounts for approximately 20% of global emissions and some 40% of industrialized country emissions;
  17. The Convention is the foundation of global efforts to combat global warming. Opened for signature in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit, its ultimate objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system. The Convention's supreme body is the Conference of the Parties (COP), which comprises the 180 states that have ratified or acceded to the agreement. In addition, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) provides the COP with timely information and advice on scientific and technological matters relating to the Convention. The Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) helps with the assessment and review of the Convention's implementation.International cooperation is required for the successful reduction of greenhouse gases. In 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 150 countries pledged to confront the problem of greenhouse gases and agreed to meet again to translate these good intentions into a binding treaty.In 1997 in Japan, 160 nations drafted a much stronger agreement known as the Kyōto Protocol. This treaty, which went into force in February 2005, calls for the 38 industrialized countries that now release the most greenhouse gases to cut their emissions to levels 5 percent below those of 1990. This reduction is to be achieved no later than 2012. Initially, the United States voluntarily accepted a more ambitious target, promising to reduce emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels; the European Union, which had wanted a much tougher treaty, committed to 8 percent; and Japan, to 6 percent. The remaining 122 nations, mostly developing nations, were not asked to commit to a reduction in gas emissions.But in 2001 newly elected U.S. president George W. Bush renounced the treaty, saying that such carbon dioxide reductions in the United States would be too costly. He also objected that developing nations would not be bound by similar carbon dioxide reducing obligations. The Kyōto Protocol could not go into effect unless industrial nations accounting for 55 percent of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions ratified it. That requirement was met in 2004 when the cabinet of Russian president Vladimir Putin approved the treaty, paving the way for it to go into effect in 2005. Contributed By:William K. TabbMicrosoft ® Encarta ® 2007. © 1993-2006 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
  18. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Convention is the foundation of global efforts to combat global warming. Opened for signature in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit, its ultimate objective is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human-induced interference with the climate system. The Convention's supreme body is the Conference of the Parties (COP), which comprises the 180 states that have ratified or acceded to the agreement. In addition, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) provides the COP with timely information and advice on scientific and technological matters relating to the Convention. The Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) helps with the assessment and review of the Convention's implementation.International cooperation is required for the successful reduction of greenhouse gases. In 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 150 countries pledged to confront the problem of greenhouse gases and agreed to meet again to translate these good intentions into a binding treaty.In 1997 in Japan, 160 nations drafted a much stronger agreement known as the Kyōto Protocol. This treaty, which went into force in February 2005, calls for the 38 industrialized countries that now release the most greenhouse gases to cut their emissions to levels 5 percent below those of 1990. This reduction is to be achieved no later than 2012. Initially, the United States voluntarily accepted a more ambitious target, promising to reduce emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels; the European Union, which had wanted a much tougher treaty, committed to 8 percent; and Japan, to 6 percent. The remaining 122 nations, mostly developing nations, were not asked to commit to a reduction in gas emissions.But in 2001 newly elected U.S. president George W. Bush renounced the treaty, saying that such carbon dioxide reductions in the United States would be too costly. He also objected that developing nations would not be bound by similar carbon dioxide reducing obligations. The Kyōto Protocol could not go into effect unless industrial nations accounting for 55 percent of 1990 greenhouse gas emissions ratified it. That requirement was met in 2004 when the cabinet of Russian president Vladimir Putin approved the treaty, paving the way for it to go into effect in 2005. Contributed By:William K. TabbMicrosoft ® Encarta ® 2007. © 1993-2006 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.
  19. Challenges for People’s Movements and Grassroots Organizations1. Massive grassroots education campaign on the root causes, consequences and genuine & just solutions to climate change.2. Press our governments to come up with comprehensive plan to transform our economies away from dependence on fossil fuels to renewables.3. Oppose market-based false “solutions” that merely abet profit-oriented production & trade and detracts from fundamental social & economic transformations4. Demand shift of public resources away from military spending, debt payments and fossil fuel subsidies towards essential social services and adaptation support for vulnerable communities.5. Demand drastic legally binding reductions in GHG emissions according to the principle of CDR.6. Demand liability payments/compensation from those principally responsible for destroying the climate and ecology, and violating human rights.7. The struggle to solve the problem of climate change and global warming should be in the context of the anti-imperialist movement8. It is integrated in the struggle against globalization policies of the Arroyo government such as EPIRA, Biofuel Act, Mining Act and others9. The movement should also integrated to change the political structure of the country and towards national democracy.
  20. Help communities cope and respond to environmentPopularize and implement proper and sustainable use of our natural resources – in line with people's welfare and interests, proper technology, and mitigation measuresPopularize correct perspective towards environmental issues – pro-people, patriotic, and scientific orientation Pagsulong ng pamahalaan na magsasalamin ng interest ng mamaya