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Climate smart agriculture prioritization and policy making

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Full set of training slides for Green Innovation Center Adaptation Academy climate change and foresight training co-organized by AICCRA Themes 1 and 2 presented by Ivy Kinyua, Dorcas Jalongo Anyango and Stephanie Jacquet, AICCRA team

Full set of training slides for Green Innovation Center Adaptation Academy climate change and foresight training co-organized by AICCRA Themes 1 and 2 presented by Ivy Kinyua, Dorcas Jalongo Anyango and Stephanie Jacquet, AICCRA team


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Climate smart agriculture prioritization and policy making

  1. 1. Climate smart agriculture prioritization and policy making Full set of capacity building slides for customization to specific training events Developed by Sabrina Chesterman and Constance Neely, AICCRA consultants Customized and delivered by Ivy Kinyua, Dorcas Jalongo Anyango and Stephanie Jacquet, AICCRA team GIZ Adaptation Academy capacity building virtual workshops for various countries July – August 2022
  3. 3. SESSION OVERVIEW Framing climate resilience and the linkages to green innovation Synthesis of key findings on value chain adaptation potential Wider policy and intervention context across scales
  4. 4. The first part of this session will define climate resilient development, green innovation, climate-smart agriculture and agri-food systems and the linkages between these key areas. SESSION 1 LEARNING OBJECTIVES
  5. 5. What climate change impacts have you witnessed or been affected by?
  7. 7. TRIPLE CHALLENGE 1 Food security and nutrition: need for increased quantity, quality and diversity of food, everywhere and for everyone 2 Need to adapt to climate change 3 Need to contribute to climate change mitigation
  8. 8. Climate-related stresses are “long-term trends or pressures that undermine the stability of a system and increase vulnerability within it” Examples of climate-related stresses include: Decreased average annual rainfall Delayed onset of the rainy season Higher temperatures Choularton et al. 2015 .
  9. 9. Climate-related shocks are “external short-term deviations from long-term trends that have substantial negative effects on people’s current state of well-being, level of assets, livelihoods, safety or their ability to withstand future shocks” Shocks are normally acute events that either slowly emerge (e.g., droughts) or rapidly emerge (e.g., flooding). Examples of climate-related shocks include: Heatwaves Floods El Niño events Droughts Wildfires Livestock or crop disease outbreak
  10. 10. SUPPLY CHAIN Increase in rate of food spoilage resulting in a loss of income. CONSUMPTION Poor consumer experience. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FOOD SYSTEM Reduction in water available for food processing plants. Reduction in product quality in- store. Increase in rate of food spoilage and wastage. Greater need for improved storage and processing facilities and costly cold chain Damage to infrastructure affecting delivery of goods e.g. damage to bridges by flooding. Volatile food prices due to a reduction in productivity and imports. investments. Food loss & waste Increase in health risks due to an increase in prevalence of pathogens and pests. Health risks Transport Cold chains Water, energy availability • Production & price volatility
  11. 11. Other key stressors include: Land degradation and deforestation Rural poverty Lack of water access/infrastructure Population growth Unequal distribution/access to natural resources Gender inequality
  13. 13. How do you define climate adaptation?
  16. 16. KEY TERMS Risk - intersectionꢀofꢀhazards,ꢀexposureꢀ andꢀvulnerability
  17. 17. Risk is not just about the climate hazard, also about the socio- ecological system – exposure to the hazard and vulnerability of the system to the effects of the hazard
  19. 19. KEY TERMS Hazard –possible,ꢀfutureꢀoccurrenceꢀofꢀnaturalꢀorꢀ humanꢀinducedꢀphysicalꢀeventsꢀthatꢀmayꢀhaveꢀ adverseꢀeffectsꢀonꢀvulnerableꢀandꢀexposedꢀelements
  20. 20. CLIMATE HAZARDS OF CONCERN • Floods • Sand or dust storms • Droughts Magnitude Extent • Tropical cyclones and strong winds • Landslides • Sea level rise • Temperature changes • Changes to seasonal patterns • Storm surges • Extreme temperatures Rate of change • Forest fires Africa as a whole has the highest mortality-related vulnerability coefficients for droughts and very high coefficients for cyclones and volcanoes. Drought and floods account for 80 per cent of loss of life and 70 per cent of economic losses linked to natural hazards (WB 2010).
  22. 22. KEY TERMS Exposure – refers to the inventory of elements in an area in which hazard events may occur
  25. 25. KEY TERMS Vulnerabilitytheꢀpropensityꢀorꢀpredispositionꢀofꢀaꢀ systemꢀtoꢀbeꢀadverselyꢀaffectedꢀbyꢀanꢀeventꢀ(IPCC,ꢀ2014) Vulnerabilityꢀisꢀaꢀfunctionꢀofꢀaꢀsystem'sꢀsensitivity,ꢀandꢀ itsꢀadaptiveꢀcapacityꢀ(IPCC,ꢀ2014)
  26. 26. BIOPHYSICAL VULNERABILITY Vulnerability to climate change of Soils Ecosystems Habitats Species
  27. 27. SOCIAL VULNERABILITY Example - social vulnerability to floods Neighbourhood characteristics Demographics Health Risk perception Socio-economic Coping capacity Land Tenure
  28. 28. KEY TERMS Sensitivity - theꢀdegreeꢀtoꢀwhichꢀaꢀsystemꢀisꢀaffected,ꢀ eitherꢀadverselyꢀorꢀbeneficially,ꢀbyꢀclimateꢀvariabilityꢀ orꢀchange. Someꢀelementsꢀmayꢀbeꢀquiteꢀrobustꢀandꢀableꢀtoꢀcopeꢀ with/absorbꢀquiteꢀlargeꢀchanges,ꢀothersꢀareꢀmore sensitive and even a small change in climate can have large impacts.
  29. 29. KEY TERMS Adaptive capacity - theꢀabilityꢀofꢀsystems,ꢀinstitutions,ꢀ humans,ꢀandꢀotherꢀorganismsꢀtoꢀadjustꢀtoꢀpotentialꢀ damage,ꢀtoꢀtakeꢀadvantageꢀofꢀopportunities,ꢀorꢀtoꢀ respondꢀtoꢀconsequences
  31. 31. “Climate resilience” is the ability to cope with actual or expected climate-related stresses and shocks and keep functioning much the same way
  32. 32. CLIMATE LENS A tool or approach used to examine a strategy, policy, plan, program or regulation in light of climate change
  33. 33. CLIMATE-COMPATIBLE OR CLIMATE-SMART DEVELOPMENT Developmentꢀwhichꢀminimisesꢀharmꢀcausedꢀbyꢀclimateꢀimpacts,ꢀ whileꢀmaximisingꢀtheꢀmanyꢀhumanꢀdevelopmentꢀopportunitiesꢀandꢀ deliversꢀbenefitsꢀacrossꢀallꢀthreeꢀpriorityꢀareas:ꢀclimateꢀmitigation,ꢀ climateꢀadaptationꢀandꢀpovertyꢀeradication.
  34. 34. CLIMATE-PROOFING Aꢀprocessꢀthatꢀmakesꢀprojects,ꢀstrategies,ꢀpoliciesꢀandꢀmeasuresꢀ resilientꢀtoꢀclimateꢀchange,ꢀincludingꢀclimateꢀvariability,ꢀbyꢀ Systematicallyꢀexaminingꢀprojects,ꢀstrategies,ꢀandꢀpoliciesꢀtoꢀidentifyꢀ waysꢀtoꢀminimiseꢀclimateꢀchangeꢀrisksꢀandꢀoptimiseꢀadaptation,ꢀi.e.,ꢀ climateꢀriskꢀscreening;ꢀandꢀ 1 2 Integratingꢀtheseꢀwaysꢀintoꢀprogrammingꢀandꢀprojects,ꢀi.e.,ꢀ mainstreaming.
  35. 35. CLIMATE-MAINSTREAMING Integratingꢀclimateꢀconcernsꢀandꢀadaptationꢀ responsesꢀintoꢀrelevantꢀpolicies,ꢀplans,ꢀprograms,ꢀ andꢀprojectsꢀatꢀtheꢀnational,ꢀsub-national,ꢀandꢀlocalꢀ scales.
  37. 37. When we understand the system that we are working in, we have a better sense of how drivers of change impact different dimensions of the system.
  38. 38. Food System–ꢀAꢀꢀfoodꢀsystemꢀisꢀaꢀcomplex web of activities involvingꢀtheꢀproduction,ꢀ processing,ꢀtransport,ꢀandꢀconsumptionꢀ–ꢀ connecting people to their food.ꢀIssuesꢀ concerningꢀtheꢀfoodꢀsystemꢀincludeꢀtheꢀ governance and economics of food production,ꢀits sustainability,ꢀtheꢀdegreeꢀ toꢀwhichꢀweꢀwasteꢀfood,ꢀhowꢀfood production affects the natural environmentꢀandꢀtheꢀimpactꢀofꢀfoodꢀonꢀ individualꢀandꢀpopulationꢀhealth.
  41. 41. ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVER Land Degradation
  45. 45. CSAꢀis NOT justꢀaꢀsetꢀofꢀpractices,ꢀBUTꢀanꢀ approach to developing the technical, policy and investment conditionsꢀtoꢀ achieveꢀsustainableꢀagriculturalꢀ developmentꢀforꢀfoodꢀsecurityꢀunderꢀ climateꢀchange.
  46. 46. WHAT IS CLIMATE-SMART AGRICULTURE (CSA)? Three pillars of CSA Strengthen farmers’ capacity to adapt and prosper in the face of climate change Reduce and/or remove greenhouse gas emissions Sustainably increase agricultural productivity and incomes
  47. 47. HY ADOPT CSA? Addresses the Addresses the relationship between climate change and agriculture Addresses food security, misdistribution and malnutrition relationship between agriculture and poverty Agricultural growth provides an effective and equitable means for reducing poverty and increasing food security CSA reduces the risk of climate change to agriculture as well as the contribution of agriculture to climate change CSA improves food security for poor and marginalised groups as well as reduces food waste.
  48. 48. WHY ADOPT CSA? ECOSYSTEM SERVICES • Unsustainable agricultural practices disrupt ecosystem functioning and associated goods and services delivery • This has a cost to farmers and other natural resource users • CSA can rehabilitate and protect ecosystem services, enable sustainable production, and improve food security
  49. 49. KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF CSA Multiple entry points at different levels Maintains ecosystem services Engages women and marginalised groups 1 5 2 3 4 6 Addresses climate change Integrates multiple goals and manages trade-offs Is context specific
  50. 50. VARIOUS LEVELS OF CSA Landscape System Level Farm Level Requires a cross-sectoral approach that considers synergies and trade-offs e.g. watershed management, restoration of degraded rangelands e.g. crop diversification, livelihood diversification, new varieties
  51. 51. VARIOUS LEVELS OF CSA Regional, national global policies Markets System Level Stakeholder engagement involving all value chain actors and decision makers is key e.g. climate change policies, long- term climate resilient strategy e.g. introducing climate-smart value chains, sustainable value chains
  52. 52. CONTRIBUTION OF VALUE CHAIN APPROACH TO CSA Interventions can be designed to deliver mitigation benefits at multiple levels within the value chain e.g. input, logistics, Interventions that achieve poverty-alleviation goals are beneficial to climate change adaptation as they build farmers’ assets and institutional linkages. transport, and post-harvest. Interventions focused on storage and market access reduce post- harvest losses, improve productivity and increase farmers’ incomes.
  53. 53. CSA SMARTNESS Technologies and practices promoted for climate change adaptation and mitigation are categorised into different ‘smartness criteria’: Weather and knowledge-smart: enerating and disseminating weather and meteorological information to farmers assists hem in making informed decisions – use of technology and media Water-smart: Technologies and practices which minimise yield losses due to extreme weather conditions – e.g. rainwater harvesting and storage, drip irrigation, drainage management, cover crops, flood/drought tolerant varieties
  54. 54. CSA SMARTNESS Nutrient/carbon-smart: Reduce GHG emissions – e.g. soil nutrition management using organic fertiliser, intercropping, residue retention, manure management, zero/minimum illage Institution/market- smart: Institutional strengthening to assist farmers in accessing resources, information and markets as well as to address gender inequality – e.g. inter-sectoral linkages, capacity building, financial services, market Seed/breed-smart: High quality seeds of locally dapted varieties and improved livestock breeds are key to enhanced productivity – e.g. drought/disease/flood tolerant crop varieties, heat tolerant livestock breeds, pest and disease resistant cultivars, nutrient efficient cultivars information dissemination
  55. 55. CSA SMARTNESS All climate-smart options ultimately enhance resilience to climate change and contribute to food security and development goals
  56. 56. CSA SMARTNESS OneꢀCSAꢀpracticeꢀorꢀtechnologyꢀcanꢀcontributeꢀ toꢀmultipleꢀsmartnessꢀcriteria Solar-based irrigation system Water- smart Carbon- smart
  57. 57. CSA SMARTNESS OneꢀCSAꢀpracticeꢀorꢀtechnologyꢀcanꢀcontributeꢀ toꢀmultipleꢀsmartnessꢀcriteria Drought tolerant variety Weather- smart Climate- smart
  58. 58. CSA IS CONTEXT SPECIFIC CSA technologies and practices are site-specific Adopting CSA at the field-level may be influenced by institutional mechanisms, landscape governance, resource tenure, economic, social, ecological and climate conditions A diversity of CSA options are developed for various contexts, across scales, and for socially differentiated groups (i.e. gender, age)
  59. 59. What is an example of a climate smart practice?
  60. 60. CSA PRACTICES AND TECHNOLOGIES Practices - the application of a method e.g. precision farming, intercropping, mulching Technologies - new materials used e.g. improved seeds, efficient irrigation equipment, slow-release fertilisers
  61. 61. TYPES OF CSA PRACTICES Forestry Soil management Crop management Water management Livestock management Fisheries and aquaculture Energy management
  62. 62. SOIL MANAGEMENT Soil management principles for climate change adaptation and mitigation and enhancing resilience Enhance soil organic matter for soil carbon sequestration Improve soil structure with organic matter Boost nutrient management Improve soil water storage Control soil erosion
  63. 63. SOIL MANAGEMENT Examples of climate-smart soil management practices CONVENTIONAL CLIMATE-SMART Practices Organic amendments Reduced tillage Land restoration Cover crops Agroforestry Improved crop rotations Nutrient management Biochar
  64. 64. CROP MANAGEMENT Cultivate a wide range of species and varieties in associations, rotations and sequences Maintain soil health to enhance soil- related ecosystem services and crop nutrition Sustainable crop production can be Adopt integrated management of pests, diseases and weeds Use high quality seeds and planting materials and well adapted, high-yielding varieties achieved through good farming practices that are based on improving efficiencies and managing biological processes Manage water efficiently
  65. 65. CROP MANAGEMENT Examples of climate-smart crop management practices
  66. 66. WATER MANAGEMENT • Given the fundamental role of water in agriculture, the scope of water management is wide-ranging and complex • Rain-fed agricultural systems – e.g. water harvesting and storage, soil management practices to retain water • Irrigated agricultural systems – e.g. water conveyance and application system types, irrigation scheduling
  67. 67. WATER MANAGEMENT Examples of climate-smart water management options at different scales Options Field level Irrigation scheme Landscape level (watershed/river basin) On-farm water storage: water harvesting Modernisation of irrigation infrastructure Enhancing soil moisture retention capacity X X X X Alternate wet and dry rice production system X Integrated water resources management X X Riparian habitat restoration or creation in rivers Supplementary irrigation X X
  68. 68. LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT Climate-smart livestock practices: • Feed management • Efficient management of manure • Increasing livestock water productivity • Reducing heat stress • Improved breeds • Control of animal diseases • Improved pasture management
  69. 69. FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE Climate-smart fisheries and aquaculture practices: Site selection Improved fish stock Physical/biological structures for seal level rise/storm surges Weather warning systems Water sharing systems Plant mangrove and floodplain forests Regulate fuel use of fishing fleets Disease management
  70. 70. FORESTRY AND AGROFORESTRY Agroforestry interventions allow farmers to harvest tree products, supplement their diets, and generate additional income Agroforestry includes: • Home gardens with multipurpose trees and shrubs • Intercropping of trees and crops • Silvopasture • Shelterbelts/ windbreaks/fodder banks/ live fences
  71. 71. ENERGY MANAGEMENT The food sector accounts for around 30% of the world’s total energy consumption The sector is highly dependent on fossil fuels, which threatens food security EXAMPLES OF ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS ALONG THE FOOD CHAIN ON-FARM • Adoption of renewable energy • Fuel efficient engines • Precise water and fertiliser applications • No-till practices OFF-FARM • Adoption of renewable energy • Energy efficient transport, lighting and heating • Insulation of cool storage • Minimised food packaging • Improved efficiency of cooking devices
  73. 73. GENDER – CLIMATE CHANGE – AGRICULTURE NEXUS Climate change impacts Gender inequality implications Crop failure Household food provision; Increased work load Household fuel provision; Increased time to collect fuelwood Fuel shortage Water scarcity Household water provision; Water contamination; Increased time to collect water
  74. 74. GENDER – CLIMATE CHANGE – AGRICULTURE NEXUS Climate change impacts Gender inequality implications Natural disasters Women have a higher incidence of mortality Lack of access to health care; Increased burden as women provide care Disease Forced migration increases women’s vulnerability Displacement Conflict Loss of lives and livelihoods; Violence against women
  75. 75. GENDER AND CSA • Gender productivity gaps exist in agriculture due to traditional gender-based discrimination, women have fewer privileges, entitlements and endowments • Women face more challenges than men in accessing, using and controlling productive resources and services This affects their vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate threats • Closing the gender gap in agriculture would reduce the number of hungry people by 100–150 million • Climate change exacerbates the existing barriers that women face
  77. 77. GENDER RESPONSIVE APPROACH TO CSA Goal - to give women and men the same incentives and opportunities to invest in or adopt climate-smart practices Undertake gender analyses to assess: Women’s and men’s control of assets such as land and water Income Labour and time to realise benefits Access to information, credit and markets Gender-related vulnerabilities to climate change Understand causes of gender inequalities, social (including cultural) and economic barriers, that can be used to inform solutions. Such information is crucial for understanding the factors that influence the adoption of CSA practices and technologies.
  79. 79. KEY TERMS Agricultural value chain - the whole range of goods and services necessary for an agricultural product to move from the farm to the consumer Green value chain - a value chain that promotes the sustainable use of natural resources to mitigate adverse environmental impacts on the landscape and generate positive results for nature and communities Good agricultural practices (GAPs) – are a collection of principles to apply to agricultural production and post-production processes, resulting in safe and healthy food and non-food agricultural products, while taking into account economic, social and environmental sustainability
  80. 80. KEY TERMS Green innovation centres (GICs) - are a Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) initiative to generate employment, raise farmers’ income, and improve farmers’ education and skills by funding training in good agricultural practices, water management, post-harvest processing, and entrepreneurship Green economy - a low carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive economy Greening – is the transformation of a process or practice towards a more sustainable and resilient outcome
  81. 81. WHAT IS GREEN INNOVATION IN AGRICULTURE? • Aꢀprocessꢀthatꢀcontributesꢀtoꢀ theꢀdevelopment of new agricultural practices and technologies • Aimꢀofꢀreducing climate change and environmental risks
  82. 82. What is an example of a green innovation?
  83. 83. WHY IS GREEN INNOVATION IMPORTANT? • Provides a strategy to achieve environmental sustainability and economic profitability • Sustainable competitive advantage • Meets customer demand for environmental protection • Enables farmers to use technical, input- and knowledge-based innovations to improve productivity, income and climate resilience in the long term Innovations in agriculture and food security can: • Increase smallholder farmers’ incomes • Boost employment along value chains (target women and youth) • Improve regional food supply
  84. 84. KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE IS KEY “Whether technical or social, green innovation requires the exchange of knowledge e.g. through advisory services, education and training courses”
  85. 85. CSA BUNDLING Bundling addresses all the farmers’ requirements by offering a variety of CSA options in a single basket, such as modern technologies, information services, weather index insurance, and market-related information Farmers have been provided with different CSA However, using them in isolation limits the development of holistic solutions and minimises benefits This is a more efficient technologies, practices, and services to enhance their adaptive capacity in the face of climate change approach than different entities knocking on the same farmer’s door
  86. 86. CSA BUNDLING CSA bundling involves the integration of a diverse suite of practices, technologies and services to: • Enhance farm outcomes through optimisation • Enhance complementarity • Manage trade-offs • Maximise the benefits to farmers
  87. 87. SESSION OVERVIEW Framing climate resilience and the linkages to green innovation Synthesis of key findings on value chain adaptation potential Wider policy and intervention context across scales
  88. 88. This second session will give a synthesis of key findings from the analysis of country SESSION 2 LEARNING OBJECTIVES specific climate change risks and potential of integrating climate-smart adaptation into value chains
  90. 90. Milk and sweet potato value chains in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties
  92. 92. AGRICULTURAL CONTEXT Agriculture is the main economic activity in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua counties Low agricultural productivity due to: • Poor farming practices - degraded natural resources and low soil fertility • Employing more than half of the population in each High poverty levels • Sub-optimal use of inputs • Around a third of the population in each county is classified as poor • Overreliance on rainfed agriculture Weak land tenure Agricultural production is dominated by small-scale farmers • >60% of farmers in Bungoma, Kakamega, and Siaya counties lack deeds to their farms Climate change adversely affects: • Cultural norms restrict women’s access to land • Crop and livestock production and productivity • Transport networks – hindering access to inputs and markets Need for land reform and enforcement of existing land policies
  93. 93. FOCAL VALUE CHAINS Sweet potato and dairy • Important for the Kenyan economy and for food security • Sweet potato – for both human consumption and livestock feed, current deficit in production • Milk accounts for 8% of the country’s GDP
  96. 96. CHATBOX Are you in agreement with the information presented in terms of capturing the context and livelihoods? (yes, and… or no, because…)
  97. 97. POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS ON CLIMATE CHANGE National and local-level government are aware of the adverse effects of climate change • Policies and strategies have been developed to address the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity Key focus on youth and gender inclusion Relevant policies and strategies include: National Root and Tubers Crop Development Strategy (2019-2022) – to enhance adoption of improved varieties and strengthen market linkages Kenya Climate-Smart Agriculture Strategy (2017-2026) – to improve climate change adaptation and resilience Agricultural Sector Transformation and Growth Strategy (ASTGS) (2019-2029) - for a hunger and food insecurity-free country Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme (ASDSP) Phase II – to promote sustainable value chains for improved income and food security
  98. 98. POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS ON CLIMATE CHANGE • County governments have developed policies and strategies aimed at enhancing agricultural productivity through individual County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs) 2018-2022 Implementation of the policies and strategies is impacted by: Inadequate funds Misappropriation of funds Poor monitoring and evaluation Insufficient enforcement Need for: Institutional capacity enhancement Effective planning Reduced bureaucracy
  99. 99. GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES AND CAPACITY • Governmental ministries overseeing the agricultural sector and climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts include: Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries (MoALF) Ministry of Water, Sanitation and Irrigation Ministry of Lands Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) Kenya Forest Service (KFS) Kenya Forest Research Institute (KEFRI) National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) Department of Cooperatives and Marketing
  100. 100. GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES AND CAPACITY State institutions have regional offices in most counties County governments lack guidelines for enforcing some of the policies and programs There a several NGOs; faith, community, and farmer-based organizations; and research institutions working in the sector, some include: GIZ Technoserve Kenya Red Cross Self Help Africa (SHA) International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) • International Potato Centre (CIP) Many of the organizations engage in participatory planning by partnering with local groups Barriers to successful program implementation include: Institutions working in isolation Lack of technical, financial and human resource capacity
  101. 101. CHATBOX Discussion question: Within the value chains, what climate change hazards are affecting them.
  102. 102. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY All four counties are at risk of: The climate hazards will: Reduce agricultural productivity • Limit the livelihoods of value chain actors • Lead to an increase in food prices Moisture Stress Erratic rainfall Droughts Need to enhance coping strategies across the value chains Nyandarua is also susceptible to flash flooding Farmers said they had experienced climate change over the years, particularly rainfall variation and drought • Their perceptions aligned with climate modelling
  103. 103. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY Key climate hazards affecting the value chains include: Bungoma, Kakamega, and Siaya counties will remain highly suited to sweet potato production in the future Sweet potato– drought and flooding Drought and water scarcity negatively affects milk production: Milk - drought and extreme rainfall • Low availability of feed • Increase in feed prices • Reduced milk production and associated income Excessive rainfall presents both risks and opportunities to milk production: Increased fodder availability Increased incidence of disease Damage to transport networks
  104. 104. CHANGES IN SUITABILITY OF PRODUCTION ZONES SWEET POTATO Suitability change of sweet potato production in Bungoma, Kakamega, Siaya, and Nyandarua Counties, Kenya
  105. 105. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY Farmers’ current coping strategies for milk production include: Use of local bulls for breeding Use of traditional medicine to treat animals Water harvesting Soil and water conservation Farmers’ current coping strategies for sweet potato production include: Diversifying production, crop rotation Replanting after crop failure Reliance on informal sweet potato vines during planting Sale of roots at the farm gate Simple value addition Soil and water conservation
  106. 106. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY Best-ranked adaptation strategies according to experts included: • Milk - storage of hay and silage, use of good agricultural practices (GAP), and commercial forage production • Sweet potato - adoption of drought-resistant varieties, GAP, early warning systems Cost-benefit analysis of the adoption of drought-resistant varieties and GAP in sweet potato production found: Drought-resistant sweet potato Requires 6% higher capital Improves yields by 200% GAPs Require significantly higher capital for adoption Improve yields by 126% Costs associated with these innovations may restrict adoption by smallholder farmers
  107. 107. PROMISING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES VALUE CHAIN - Milk Extreme Rainfall HAZARD Droughts Commercial forage production Zero grazing STRATEGIES Strengthening dairy cooperative and farmer groups Artificial insemination services New fodder varieties Storage of hay and silage • Storage of hay and silage • New fodder varieties Good husbandry practices • Good husbandry practices Strengthened dairy cooperatives Early warning information
  108. 108. PROMISING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES VALUE CHAIN – Sweet Potato HAZARD Floods Drought Good agricultural practices Good agricultural practices STRATEGIES Solar irrigation Early warning systems Drought-tolerant varieties Improved market linkages
  109. 109. SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Projections indicate drought, floods, and the intensity of rainfall will continue to affect crop and livestock production in the four counties Farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to: • Low use and high cost of inputs • Sub-optimal use of inputs • Poor road connectivity • Poor information asymmetry Farmers are making efforts to enhance their resilience by adopting climate-smart practices Adoption of good GAPs and drought resistant varieties of sweet potatoes offer promising and profitable adaptation strategies • Need to upscale adoption of these innovations
  110. 110. SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS County-level governments need to be involved to provide basic services and improve existing infrastructure Need to improve: Capacity of extension workers and veterinary care providers Access to water, electricity, and road networks County governments must collaborate with national government, NGOs, research institutes and private organisations Several federal policies offer general support for climate-smart initiatives, such as: Climate- Smart Agriculture Strategy Agricultural Sector Development Strategy Agricultural Sector Development Support Programme County Integrated Development Plan
  111. 111. SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Barriers to the implementation of climate change programming in Kenya include: • Some institutions implement projects in isolation • Need for improved coordination and cooperation among government, international, and private institutions • Some organizations need improved technical, financial, and human resource capacity • Local governments need guidelines and an overall implementation framework • Other barriers include: Weak infrastructure Lack of storage facilities Difficulty procuring clean seeds and vines Land insecurity Price fluctuations Uncontrolled packing standards Limited access to financial resources • Cultural norms that restrict women farmers are a major hindrance in scaling climate-smart adaptation
  112. 112. CHATBOX Based on the presentation, what are the key gaps and adaptation needs?
  113. 113. LUNCH BREAK
  114. 114. BUNDLING IN THE DAIRY VALUE CHAIN IN KENYA What are Climate Smart Agriculture practices and services that could be bundled to enhance adaptation in the DAIRY Value Chain?
  115. 115. BUNDLING PRACTICES AND SERVICES IN THE DAIRY VALUE CHAIN KENYA (EXAMPLES) Practices • Storage of hay and silage • Good animal husbandry practices • Strengthened dairy cooperatives • Value chain actor networking Services • Farmer access to climate information services • Access to financial services • Insurance services
  116. 116. SESSION OVERVIEW Framing climate resilience and the linkages to green innovation Synthesis of key findings on value chain adaptation potential Wider policy and intervention context across scales
  117. 117. The last part of the session will focus on the policy context across scales and introduce a deeper understanding of future thinking, foresight and long-term transformative planning SESSION 3 LEARNING OBJECTIVES
  118. 118. In 2015, countries committed to three international agreements that are shaping the global response to climate change, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development
  119. 119. UNFCCC: WHAT IS IT? TheꢀUNFCCCꢀenteredꢀintoꢀforceꢀonꢀ21ꢀMarchꢀ1994.ꢀToday,ꢀtheꢀ197ꢀ countriesꢀthatꢀhaveꢀratifiedꢀtheꢀConventionꢀareꢀcalledꢀPartiesꢀtoꢀtheꢀ Convention. Preventingꢀ“dangerous”ꢀhuman interference with the climate system isꢀ theꢀultimateꢀaimꢀofꢀtheꢀUNFCCC.
  120. 120. KEY INSTITUTIONS AND COOPERATIVE BODIES Conference of Partiesꢀ 197ꢀsignatoryꢀCountries)ꢀwithꢀCMPꢀforꢀKyotoꢀProtocolꢀandꢀCMAꢀforꢀParisꢀ Agreement. Entities entrusted with operations of financial mechanisms (GreenꢀClimateꢀFund,ꢀGlobalꢀEnvironmentꢀFacility) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): Scientificꢀbody.ꢀItꢀreviewsꢀandꢀassesses,ꢀatꢀregularꢀintervals,ꢀtheꢀ mostꢀrecentꢀscientific,ꢀtechnicalꢀandꢀsocioeconomicꢀinformationꢀ producedꢀworldwide,ꢀrelevantꢀtoꢀtheꢀunderstandingꢀofꢀclimateꢀ change.
  121. 121. KEY INSTITUTIONS AND COOPERATIVE BODIES Secretariat: Providesꢀorganizationalꢀsupport,ꢀtechnicalꢀexpertiseꢀandꢀinformationꢀ flow RegionalꢀCollaborationꢀCentresꢀEastꢀandꢀSouthernꢀAfrica,ꢀUgandaꢀ(KCCꢀKampala).ꢀ Subsidiary bodies: SubsidiaryꢀBodyꢀforꢀScientificꢀandꢀTechnologicalꢀAdviceꢀ (SBSTA)ꢀprovidingꢀtimelyꢀinformationꢀandꢀSubsidiaryꢀBodyꢀofꢀImplementationꢀ(SBI)ꢀ whichꢀassessꢀimplementation. AdaptationꢀCommittee
  123. 123. RATIONALE FOR LONG-TERM PLANNING: PARIS AGREEMENT Article Paragraph Language Establishes a temperature goal of well below 2oC to 1.5oC (mitigation) Establishes a link between adaptation, resilience and mitigation Making finance flows consistent with low emission and climate resilient development 2 1 Introduces the concept of net zero emissions (carbon neutrality) as advanced in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC (2050) 4 4 1 4 Developing countries encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reductionnor limitation targets All Parties should strive to formulate and communicate long term low GHG development strategies, mindful of Article 2 4 7 19 1 Establishes the global goal on adaptation (GCA): enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience, and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response in the context of the temperature goal referred to in Article 2. Recognizes that adaptation is a global challenge faced by all with local, subnational, national, regional and international dimensions, and that is a key component of and makes a contribution to the long-term global response to climate change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems, taking into account the urgent and immediate needs of those developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. 7 2
  126. 126. Policy planning instruments • Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – 2030 • Long-term Strategies (LTS)/ Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies/National decarbonisation plan – 2050 • Other climate policy instruments (National Mitigation Action Plans, National Adaptation Plans, climate bills etc).
  129. 129. BASED ON GOOD PRACTICE ELSEWHERE, NDCS CAN BE IMPROVED TO REFLECT AFRICA’S INTERESTS. NDC revision process is an opportunity to learn from others – tailoring to different national priorities and contexts.
  130. 130. CHATBOX What has been your involvement in the the development of any of the policies or strategies in your country?
  131. 131. KORONIVIA JOINT WORK ON AGRICULTURE (KJWA) Establishedꢀ byꢀ theꢀ COPꢀ atꢀ itsꢀ 23rd sessionꢀ inꢀ 2017.ꢀ The Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture (KJWA) is a landmark decision under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that recognizes the unique potential of agriculture in tackling climate change (FAO). Through this decision the COP requested the SBSTA and SBI to jointly address issues related to agriculture, including through workshops and expert meetings, working with constituted bodies under the Convention and taking into consideration the vulnerabilities of agriculture to climate change and approaches to addressing food security.
  132. 132. THE KJWA IS THE ONLY PROGRAMME TO FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY UNDER UNFCCC • By mainstreaming agriculture into UNFCCC processes, the KJWA can drive transformation in agricultural and food systems, and address the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation and agricultural productivity. • It can provide concrete solutions to the climate and environmental challenges we are facing today, including the COVID-19 pandemic. • The KJWA complements country Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) under the Paris Agreement, while contributing to the overall achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
  133. 133. Elements of work include: • Approaches to assess adaptation, adaptation co-benefits and resilience • Improved soil carbon, soil health and soil fertility under crop- and grass-land and integrated systems and water management • Improved nutrient use and manure management towards sustainable and resilient agricultural systems • Improved livestock management systems • Socio-economic and food security dimensions of climate change in the agricultural sector
  135. 135. CHATBOX How will you be experiencing climate change in 2040?
  136. 136. What is your experience with the Foresight Methodology? 1.It is a new concept to me 2.I have seen a presentation or attended a webinar 3.I have participated in a training / workshop / course 4.I have facilitated a foresight process
  137. 137. How do we think about the future?
  138. 138. Future literacy Question 1: The future is (choose which apply): - Multiple choice Question 2: How comfortable are you thinking about the future? - Single choice 1. Uncertain 2. unpredictable 3. foreseeable 4. fixed 1. Very comfortable 2. Comfortable 3. a little uncomfortable, 4. very uncomfortable 5. certain 6. controllable 7. navigable Question 3: Thinking about the future for me is: - Single choice 1. Too uncertain, 2. Limited but a bit abstract, 3. Comfortable on certain topics but not others, 4. I’m Confident to vision the future
  139. 139. Question 4: When you are planning for your personal future what year do you consider the future? - Single choice Question 5: When you are planning for the future through your work what timeframe do you work with? - Single choice 1. 2022 2. 2023 3. 2025 4. 2030 5. 2040 1. 1 year 2. 3 years 3. 5 years 4. 10 years 5. more Question 6: What processes or tools do you use for planning for the future? - Multiple choice 5. Strategic planning 1. Personal intuition 2. Personal experiences 3. Impact pathways 4. Log frames 6. Scenarios 7. Other
  140. 140. CHATBOX What do you think is a characteristic of a future thinker?
  141. 141. Out of your silo Everyone is creative Any idea is valid A RADICALLY CURIOUS MIND Jim Dator A neutral viewpoint Don’t hold onto old ideas that are no longer needed
  142. 142. CHARACTERISTICS OF FUTURE THINKERS Justifiablyꢀterrifiedꢀandꢀdetermined,ꢀandꢀstubbornlyꢀoptimistic Maintainsꢀaꢀsolidꢀvisionꢀandꢀhasꢀcapacityꢀtoꢀshiftꢀtheꢀstoryline/narrativeꢀtoꢀoneꢀofꢀpurposefulꢀsharedꢀmeaning Thinksꢀinꢀsystemsꢀandꢀseesꢀtheꢀlargerꢀpicture Wantsꢀanꢀaccurateꢀversionꢀofꢀrealityꢀandꢀtakesꢀresponsibilityꢀforꢀone’sꢀdestiny Openꢀtoꢀpossibilitiesꢀandꢀcurious,ꢀintriguedꢀwithꢀcontradictions Willingꢀtoꢀtestꢀindividualꢀbeliefsꢀandꢀcutꢀthroughꢀindividualꢀbiases,ꢀalwaysꢀreadyꢀtoꢀaskꢀtheꢀnextꢀquestion Enjoysꢀinteractingꢀwithꢀnewꢀdataꢀandꢀꢀinformation,ꢀbalancingꢀtheꢀcreativeꢀandꢀanalytical Groundedꢀ-ꢀtheirꢀselfꢀworthꢀisꢀnotꢀtiedꢀtoꢀhowꢀrightꢀorꢀwrongꢀtheyꢀare Julia Galef, Scout Mindset, 2021 Tom Rivett Carnac, Ted Radio Wisdom Times, 8 traits of a Forward Thinker
  144. 144. FORESIGHT Foresightꢀisꢀtheꢀprocessꢀofꢀ lookingꢀtoꢀtheꢀpastꢀandꢀ presentꢀtoꢀenvisionꢀandꢀ prepareꢀforꢀdifferentꢀfutures,ꢀ whichꢀthenꢀallowꢀusꢀtoꢀmakeꢀ strategicꢀdecisionsꢀtoday.ꢀ
  145. 145. FORESIGHT Foresight is a set of tools and methods to practically help us to move toward the future we want
  146. 146. THREE GUIDING QUESTIONS What seems to be happening? What might happen? What do we need to do?
  147. 147. 3 CORE TIME FRAMES IN A FORESIGHT PROCESS 2 Assessing what is 3 happening in the present Anticipating the future 1 Back into the past
  148. 148. The premise of foresight is that the future is still in the making and can be actively influenced or even created
  149. 149. FORESIGHT - Key steps and stages
  150. 150. FORESIGHT - Key steps and stages
  151. 151. What seems to be happening? What might happen? What do we need to do?
  152. 152. LEARNING EXERCISE EXPECTED FUTURES - COVID-19 PANDEMIC • WeꢀareꢀallꢀlivingꢀthroughꢀtheꢀeffectsꢀofꢀtheꢀCovid-19ꢀpandemic.ꢀItꢀhasꢀhadꢀ aꢀbigꢀimpactꢀonꢀhowꢀweꢀseeꢀtheꢀfuture. • Inꢀthisꢀexerciseꢀweꢀaskꢀyouꢀtoꢀthinkꢀbackꢀonꢀwhatꢀyouꢀexpectedꢀtheꢀ futureꢀtoꢀbeꢀlikeꢀBEFOREꢀtheꢀCovid-19ꢀ(driver)ꢀpandemicꢀandꢀcompareꢀ thatꢀwithꢀtheꢀfutureꢀyouꢀexpectedꢀAFTERꢀtheꢀpandemicꢀstarted.
  153. 153. WHAT SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING? 1. Think back to what you were expecting you would be doing in the year 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic started. In the chat box – can you share with us some plans you originally had for 2020
  154. 154. WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN? 2. Now think to late 2022, describe what you think your working environment will look like or your personal activities. In the chat box please give us an example
  155. 155. WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO? 3. What would you have done differently – think back to February 2020 - if you had known that Covid-19 was coming – what would you have changed in how you planned 2020-2022. n the chat box can you give us an example from work or your personal life
  156. 156. What seems to be happening? What might happen? What do we need to do?
  157. 157. KEY TERMS Trend - isꢀaꢀ“general Megatrend - isꢀaꢀlong-termꢀchangeꢀ thatꢀaffectsꢀgovernments,ꢀsocietiesꢀ andꢀeconomiesꢀpermanentlyꢀoverꢀaꢀ longꢀperiodꢀofꢀtime. e.g. growing youth population population across African continent tendency” orꢀdirectionꢀofꢀ aꢀmovement/changeꢀoverꢀ timeꢀe.g Increasing erratic seasonal rainfall patterns
  158. 158. In your lifetime name a trend you have witnessed?
  159. 159. CATEGORIES FOR UNDERSTANDING TRENDS S T E E P Ecological / Environmental Social Technological Economic Political
  161. 161. Looking across the categories below, what are some trends that are currently affecting or may affect planning for climate resilience or climate smart agriculture? CATEGORIES FOR UNDERSTANDING TRENDS S T E E P Ecological / Environmental Social Technological Economic Political
  162. 162. What seems to be happening? What might happen? What do we need to do?
  163. 163. UNCERTAINTY IN LONG TERM PLANNING Developing long term planning is challenging due to: • Theꢀtimeꢀframeꢀthatꢀextendsꢀacrossꢀmultipleꢀdecades;ꢀandꢀ • Theꢀneedꢀtoꢀdealꢀwithꢀcomplexꢀsocioeconomicꢀandꢀbiophysicalꢀsystems.
  164. 164. UNCERTAINTY IN LONG TERM PLANNING Long term planning is subject to great uncertainty, such as: • Futureꢀclimateꢀimpacts; • Technologicalꢀinnovationꢀandꢀdeployment;ꢀ • Policyꢀdevelopmentꢀandꢀimplementation • Availabilityꢀofꢀlarge-scaleꢀsolutions;ꢀandꢀ • Reliabilityꢀofꢀcurrentꢀdata,ꢀmodelsꢀandꢀskillsꢀtoꢀinterpretꢀevidenceꢀ
  165. 165. SCENARIOS Scenariosꢀareꢀusedꢀasꢀaꢀmethodꢀtoꢀthink about possible future states andꢀhowꢀuncertaintiesꢀ mightꢀplayꢀout. Answeringꢀ‘what if’ questionsꢀthatꢀdescribeꢀ multipleꢀalternativeꢀfuturesꢀspanningꢀaꢀkeyꢀsetꢀofꢀ driversꢀandꢀcriticalꢀuncertainties.ꢀ
  166. 166. When thinking about what might happen in terms of scenarios, we look closely at drivers of change and degrees of uncertainty.
  167. 167. Drivers –ꢀareꢀfactors, issues or trends that cause changeꢀtherebyꢀaffectingꢀorꢀshapingꢀtheꢀfuture Impactꢀ-ꢀrefersꢀtoꢀtheꢀpotential scale of impacts ofꢀtheꢀ driver Uncertainty –refersꢀtoꢀhow much or how clear we are on how a driver will emerge or play out in the future.ꢀ Highꢀuncertaintyꢀcanꢀmeanꢀhavingꢀlittleꢀknowledgeꢀofꢀhowꢀ somethingꢀmayꢀpanꢀout.ꢀ Critical uncertainties -ꢀareꢀdrivers that are both high impact and highly uncertain.
  168. 168. What driver do you hink will be highly mpactful in your country in the next 10 years?
  169. 169. What seems to be happening? What might happen? What do we need to do?
  170. 170. Once we have considered what might happen, we want to consider transformative actions are needed to achieve the future we prefer.
  172. 172. “Today’sꢀinterimꢀreportꢀfromꢀ theꢀUNFCCCꢀisꢀaꢀredꢀalertꢀforꢀ ourꢀplanet.ꢀItꢀshowsꢀ governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees andꢀmeetꢀtheꢀgoalsꢀ ofꢀtheꢀParisꢀAgreement”ꢀ “UNꢀClimateꢀPanelꢀtellsꢀusꢀweꢀ haveꢀ10 years left to begin a radical transformation of this civilizationꢀtoꢀmoveꢀquicklyꢀtoꢀ aꢀzeroꢀemissionsꢀsociety…we need a new economic vision and a game plan ….weꢀareꢀ movingꢀꢀfromꢀtheꢀageꢀofꢀ progress to the age of resilience” –ꢀSecretary-GeneralꢀAntónioꢀGuteresꢀ onꢀtheꢀreportꢀfindingsꢀ(Februaryꢀ 2021) –ꢀJeremyꢀRifkin
  173. 173. KEY TERMS Transformational change – includes major long-term changes in the way we operate and may shift us between or into new ‘systems’ and Incremental change - refers to change that occurs slowly and without necessarily modifying the essence of social structures or organizational practices. processes.
  174. 174. We often build our plans and strategies based on actions that result in incremental change – when we need actions that are transformative and suitable for the future that is coming
  175. 175. TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE The future that is coming often requires significant change Transformative change requires sometimes radically new interventions, policies and partnerships It requires disruptive technology which can be defined as any innovation that dramatically changes the way consumers, businesses and industries operate Moves us beyond incremental change and results in major long-term changes in the way systems operate
  176. 176. WHAT IS A TRANSFORMATION? “An agriculture and food systems transformation is a significant redistribution—by at least a third—of land, labour and capital, and/ or outputs and outcomes (e.g. types and amounts of production and consumption of goods and services) within a timeframe of a decade”
  177. 177. WHAT MIGHT TRANSFORM? Transformational Shifts • Markets to networks • Transactions to Flows • Ownership to Access • Sellers and Buyers in negotiation - to producers and users in networks • Gross Domestic Product to Quality of Life • Productivity to Regenerativity
  178. 178. CHATBOX Based on what you know about climate smart agriculture, can you think of an example of “transformative” intervention or partnership?
  179. 179. REVIEW OF SESSION Climate resilient development, climate- smart agriculture, agri-food systems, green innovation Bundling services and practices National Level Context on Adaptation to Climate Change Nested Policy Context – LTSs and NDCs Foresight as a methodology to integrate uncertainty into planning
  180. 180. What is your take home message from this session?
  181. 181. THANK YOU!