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Cholesterol and
     Cardiac Mortality

   Myth & Truth
                Fayza Rayes
                MBBCh. Msc. MRCGP
             Consultant Family Physician
Joint Program of Family & Community Medicine, Jeddah
             www.fayzarayes.com
The Myth
People consume high fat diet have
      high cardiac mortality
The Original Evidence                Ancel Keys cheated.
                                    He selected data from 6
                                     countries to create the
                                      linear relationship.
                                       Data were actually
                                     available from total of
                                          22 countries!




This is the graph of heart deaths      Keys (1953). Journal of mount
                                            Sinai Hospital New York
    plotted against fat intake
Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality




We can make it a
straight line, it
shows very clear
positive
correlation:
Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality




Choosing a few
other countries
might have
given a
negative
correlation:
Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality

Choosing a few
other countries
the negative
correlation
become more
clear
(consumption of
>40% of
calories from fat
associated with
lower cardiac
mortality):
Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality


                         So let's look at
                         the whole
                         database from
                         which Keys
                         carefully selected
                         his six countries
Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality




Cmpare to the original
line swept in by Keys.
Things get worse if
you add in the Masai,
the Inuit, the Rendile,
the Tokelau and a few
others, shown as red
dots:
Cholesterol and Cardiac Mortality

                Other Studies
   Do people who eat more saturated fat have more heart attacks?



     The following are high-impact prospective studies, showing no

association between saturated fat consumption and heart attack risk.
Cholesterol and cardiac mortality
                          Between nation
                          studies this figure,
                          credited to Dr.
                          Kendrick, shows
                          the rates of death
                          from CHD plotted
                          against the percent
                          of a given
                          population who are
                          frankly
                          hypercholesterola-
                          -emic. He
                          extracted the data
                          from MONICA
                          study
Negative
Correlation



WHO-MONICA Study- Multinational MONItoring of Trends and
determination in CArdiovascular Disease; a 10 year study, 7
million people,14 European countries plus the Australian
Aborigines (Aborigines are the leftmost country-lowest
cholesterol & highest death rate).
BMJ. 1996 Jul 13;313(7049):84-90.
Dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease in
 men: cohort follow up study in the USA
Ascherio A, Rimm EB, Giovannucci EL, Spiegelman D, Stampfer
  M, Willett WC.
Source: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between fat intake and the
  incidence of coronary heart disease in men of middle age and older.
DESIGN: Cohort questionnaire study of men followed up for six years
  from 1986.
SETTING: The health professionals follow up study in the United States.
SUBJECTS: 43 757 health professionals aged 40 to 75 years free of
  diagnosed cardiovascular disease or diabetes in 1986.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of acute myocardial infarction or
  coronary death.
RESULTS: During follow up 734 coronary events were
  documented, including 505 non-fatal myocardial infarctions and 229
  deaths. After age and several coronary risk factors were controlled for
  significant positive associations were observed between intake of
  saturated fat and risk of coronary disease. For men in the top versus
  the lowest fifth of saturated fat intake (median = 14.8% v 5.7% of
  energy) the multivariate relative risk for myocardial infarction was 1.22
  (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.56) and for fatal coronary heart
  disease was 2.21 (1.38 to 3.54). After adjustment for intake of fibre
  the risks were 0.96 (0.73 to 1.27) and 1.72 (1.01 to 2.90), respectively.
  Positive associations between intake of cholesterol and risk of
  coronary heart disease were similarly attenuated after adjustment for
  fibre intake. Intake of linolenic acid was inversely associated with risk
  of myocardial infarction; this association became significant only after
  adjustment for non-dietary risk factors and was strengthened after
  adjustment for total fat intake (relative risk 0.41 for a 1% increase in
  energy, P for trend < 0.01).
CONCLUSIONS: These data do not support
 the strong association between
 intake of saturated fat and risk of
 coronary heart disease suggested by
 international comparisons. They are compatible,
 however, with the hypotheses that saturated fat
 and cholesterol intakes affect the risk of coronary
 heart disease as predicted by their effects on
 blood cholesterol concentration. They also
 support a specific preventive effect of linolenic
 acid intake.
J Intern Med. 2005 Aug;258(2):153-65.
Dietary fat intake and early mortality patterns--data from
  The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study.
Leosdottir M, Nilsson PM, Nilsson JA, Månsson H, Berglund G.
Source : Department of Medicine, Lund University, University Hospital (UMAS),
  Malmö, Sweden. margret.leosdottir@med.lu.se
OBJECTIVES: Most current dietary guidelines encourage limiting relative fat
  intake to <30% of total daily energy, with saturated and trans fatty acids
  contributing no more than 10%. We examined whether total fat intake,
  saturated fat, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated fat intake are
  independent risk factors for prospective all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer
  mortality.
DESIGN: Population-based, prospective cohort study.
SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study was set in the
  city of Malmö, southern Sweden. A total of 28,098 middle-aged individuals
  participated in the study 1991-1996.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subjects were categorized by quartiles of
  relative fat intake, with the first quartile used as a reference point in
  estimating multivariate relative risks (RR; 95% CI, Cox's regression model).
  Adjustments were made for confounding by age and various lifestyle factors.
RESULTS: Women in the fourth quartile of total fat intake had a
  significantly higher RR of cancer mortality (RR 1.46; CI 1.04-2.04). A
  significant downwards trend was observed for cardiovascular
  mortality amongst men from the first to the fourth quartile (P=0.028).
  No deteriorating effects of high saturated fat intake were observed for
  either sex for any cause of death. Beneficial effects of a relatively high
  intake of unsaturated fats were not uniform.

CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of cancer mortality for women,
 individuals receiving more than 30% of their total daily energy from fat
 and more than 10% from saturated fat, did not have increased
        Current dietary guidelines
  mortality.
  concerning fat intake are thus generally
  not supported by our observational
  results.
The Truth
People consume high fat diet and people
    with high serum cholesterol have
          low cardiac mortality
But Why ??!!
 Why cholesterol has received plenty of this
 negative media over the last decade?

 Several studies have shown that cholesterol is
 not the cause behind problems of the heart.

 The reason is crystal clear: The pharmaceutical
 companies who manufacture cholesterol-
 lowering drugs have protected their billions of
 dollars by twisting the information.
The Bitter Truth
$ billion




                                           Year




   During the past decade Pfizer's Lipitor generated
      $115 billion in cumulative global revenue
For More Information
 Go to: http://fayzarayes.com

 Or go to YouTube
http://www.youtu.be/cmwNpUJUjPg
Big Fat Fiasco pt. 1-5

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Cholesterol Myth and Truth

  • 1. Cholesterol and Cardiac Mortality Myth & Truth Fayza Rayes MBBCh. Msc. MRCGP Consultant Family Physician Joint Program of Family & Community Medicine, Jeddah www.fayzarayes.com
  • 2. The Myth People consume high fat diet have high cardiac mortality
  • 3. The Original Evidence Ancel Keys cheated. He selected data from 6 countries to create the linear relationship. Data were actually available from total of 22 countries! This is the graph of heart deaths Keys (1953). Journal of mount Sinai Hospital New York plotted against fat intake
  • 4. Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality We can make it a straight line, it shows very clear positive correlation:
  • 5. Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality Choosing a few other countries might have given a negative correlation:
  • 6. Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality Choosing a few other countries the negative correlation become more clear (consumption of >40% of calories from fat associated with lower cardiac mortality):
  • 7. Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality So let's look at the whole database from which Keys carefully selected his six countries
  • 8. Consumption of fat and cardiac mortality Cmpare to the original line swept in by Keys. Things get worse if you add in the Masai, the Inuit, the Rendile, the Tokelau and a few others, shown as red dots:
  • 9. Cholesterol and Cardiac Mortality Other Studies Do people who eat more saturated fat have more heart attacks? The following are high-impact prospective studies, showing no association between saturated fat consumption and heart attack risk.
  • 10. Cholesterol and cardiac mortality Between nation studies this figure, credited to Dr. Kendrick, shows the rates of death from CHD plotted against the percent of a given population who are frankly hypercholesterola- -emic. He extracted the data from MONICA study
  • 11. Negative Correlation WHO-MONICA Study- Multinational MONItoring of Trends and determination in CArdiovascular Disease; a 10 year study, 7 million people,14 European countries plus the Australian Aborigines (Aborigines are the leftmost country-lowest cholesterol & highest death rate).
  • 12. BMJ. 1996 Jul 13;313(7049):84-90. Dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease in men: cohort follow up study in the USA Ascherio A, Rimm EB, Giovannucci EL, Spiegelman D, Stampfer M, Willett WC. Source: Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, USA. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between fat intake and the incidence of coronary heart disease in men of middle age and older. DESIGN: Cohort questionnaire study of men followed up for six years from 1986. SETTING: The health professionals follow up study in the United States. SUBJECTS: 43 757 health professionals aged 40 to 75 years free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease or diabetes in 1986. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of acute myocardial infarction or coronary death.
  • 13. RESULTS: During follow up 734 coronary events were documented, including 505 non-fatal myocardial infarctions and 229 deaths. After age and several coronary risk factors were controlled for significant positive associations were observed between intake of saturated fat and risk of coronary disease. For men in the top versus the lowest fifth of saturated fat intake (median = 14.8% v 5.7% of energy) the multivariate relative risk for myocardial infarction was 1.22 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.56) and for fatal coronary heart disease was 2.21 (1.38 to 3.54). After adjustment for intake of fibre the risks were 0.96 (0.73 to 1.27) and 1.72 (1.01 to 2.90), respectively. Positive associations between intake of cholesterol and risk of coronary heart disease were similarly attenuated after adjustment for fibre intake. Intake of linolenic acid was inversely associated with risk of myocardial infarction; this association became significant only after adjustment for non-dietary risk factors and was strengthened after adjustment for total fat intake (relative risk 0.41 for a 1% increase in energy, P for trend < 0.01).
  • 14. CONCLUSIONS: These data do not support the strong association between intake of saturated fat and risk of coronary heart disease suggested by international comparisons. They are compatible, however, with the hypotheses that saturated fat and cholesterol intakes affect the risk of coronary heart disease as predicted by their effects on blood cholesterol concentration. They also support a specific preventive effect of linolenic acid intake.
  • 15. J Intern Med. 2005 Aug;258(2):153-65. Dietary fat intake and early mortality patterns--data from The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study. Leosdottir M, Nilsson PM, Nilsson JA, Månsson H, Berglund G. Source : Department of Medicine, Lund University, University Hospital (UMAS), Malmö, Sweden. margret.leosdottir@med.lu.se OBJECTIVES: Most current dietary guidelines encourage limiting relative fat intake to <30% of total daily energy, with saturated and trans fatty acids contributing no more than 10%. We examined whether total fat intake, saturated fat, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated fat intake are independent risk factors for prospective all-cause, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. DESIGN: Population-based, prospective cohort study. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: The Malmö Diet and Cancer Study was set in the city of Malmö, southern Sweden. A total of 28,098 middle-aged individuals participated in the study 1991-1996. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Subjects were categorized by quartiles of relative fat intake, with the first quartile used as a reference point in estimating multivariate relative risks (RR; 95% CI, Cox's regression model). Adjustments were made for confounding by age and various lifestyle factors.
  • 16. RESULTS: Women in the fourth quartile of total fat intake had a significantly higher RR of cancer mortality (RR 1.46; CI 1.04-2.04). A significant downwards trend was observed for cardiovascular mortality amongst men from the first to the fourth quartile (P=0.028). No deteriorating effects of high saturated fat intake were observed for either sex for any cause of death. Beneficial effects of a relatively high intake of unsaturated fats were not uniform. CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of cancer mortality for women, individuals receiving more than 30% of their total daily energy from fat and more than 10% from saturated fat, did not have increased Current dietary guidelines mortality. concerning fat intake are thus generally not supported by our observational results.
  • 17. The Truth People consume high fat diet and people with high serum cholesterol have low cardiac mortality
  • 18. But Why ??!!  Why cholesterol has received plenty of this negative media over the last decade?  Several studies have shown that cholesterol is not the cause behind problems of the heart.  The reason is crystal clear: The pharmaceutical companies who manufacture cholesterol- lowering drugs have protected their billions of dollars by twisting the information.
  • 19. The Bitter Truth $ billion Year During the past decade Pfizer's Lipitor generated $115 billion in cumulative global revenue
  • 20. For More Information  Go to: http://fayzarayes.com  Or go to YouTube http://www.youtu.be/cmwNpUJUjPg Big Fat Fiasco pt. 1-5

Editor's Notes

  1. The research and career of the physiologist, Dr. Ancel Keys had a profound effect on society&apos;s attitude to food and exercise. His work spanning from the 1930’s through the 1970’s, introduced many of the assumptions which we now take for granted about the relationship between diet, energy expenditure, metabolic rates and health. In 1937, Keys moved to the Universityof Minnesotawhere he organized the laboratory of physiological hygiene where he led the way in studying the effects of ageing and the body’s responses to heat, cold or starvation. He determined the relationships between height and weight, diet and blood fats, blood fats and the incidence of heart attacks. His study on the human body’s’ response to extreme conditions prompted the army to ask him to develop rations for army paratroopers. What resulted was the famous “K-rations” of World War II, the combat rations that sustained soldiers throughout the war. Dr. Keys died in 2004 at the age of 100. He is survived by his wife, Margaret Keys, a daughter, Carrie D’Andrea, and a son, Dr. Henry Keys; eight grandchildren; and six great-grandchildren
  2. Slightly less convincing is when the choice of different countries from the same data bases suggests that dietary fat has nothing to do with heart disease and that heart disease is very rare anyway:
  3. he link between cholesterol and saturated fat with cardiovascular disease has been a myth for over 50 years.Stephan Guyenet (Whole Health Source blog) nicely addresses the cholesterol-CVD myth, and lists the many unsupportive studies here. I also recommend the work of Drs. Malcom Kendrick and Uffe Ravnskov for more info on why elevated cholesterol is not the death sentence CW paints it to be. I believe that most (if not all) of the studies that correlated cholesterol with CVD, ignored significant confounding variables such as wheat and sugar consumption, or lumped saturated fat in with trans/hydrogenated fats.The Monica study (which assessed 21 countries over 10 years) found no meaningful correlation at all. The tiny correlation that does exist would point towards heart disease rates going down as cholesterol levels go up. People with high cholesterol actually tend to live longer.For more Paleo Diet hacks: http://paleohacks.com/questions/16596/paleo-diet-and-cholesterol-levels#ixzz2J6Vh5ROW Follow us: @PaleoHacks on Twitter | PaleoHacks on FacebookA Sampling of Unsupportive StudiesHere are references to ten high-impact prospective studies, spanning half a century, showing no association between saturated fat consumption and heart attack risk. Ignore the squirming about saturated-to-polyunsaturated ratios, Keys/Hegsted scores, etc. What we&apos;re concerned with is the straightforward question: do people who eat more saturated fat have more heart attacks? Many of these papers allow free access to the full text, so have a look for yourselves if you want:A Longitudinal Study of Coronary Heart Disease. Circulation. 1963.Diet and Heart: a Postscript. British Medical Journal. 1977. Saturated fat was unrelated to heart attack risk, but fiber was protective.Dietary Intake and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Japanese Men Living in Hawaii. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 1978.Relationship of Dietary Intake to Subsequent Coronary Heart Disease Incidence: the Puerto Rico Heart Health Program. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 1980.Diet, Serum Cholesterol, and Death From Coronary Heart Disease: The Western Electric Study. New England Journal of Medicine. 1981.Diet and 20-year Mortality in Two Rural Population Groups of Middle-Aged Men in Italy. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. 1989. Men who died of CHD ate significantly less saturated fat than men who didn&apos;t.Diet and Incident Ischaemic Heart Disease: the Caerphilly Study. British Journal of Nutrition. 1993.They measured animal fat intake rather than saturated fat in this study.Dietary Fat and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Men: Cohort Follow-up Study in the United States. British Medical Journal. 1996. This is the massive Physicians Health Study. Don&apos;t let the abstract fool you! Scroll down to table 2 and see for yourself that the association between saturated fat intake and heart attack risk disappears after adjustment for several factors including family history of heart attack, smoking and fiber intake. That&apos;s because, as in most modern studies, people who eat steak are also more likely to smoke, avoid vegetables, eat fast food, etc.Dietary Fat Intake and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women. New England Journal of Medicine. 1997. From the massive Nurse&apos;s Health study. This one fooled me for a long time because the abstract is misleading. It claims that saturated fat was associated with heart attack risk. However, the association disappeared without a trace when they adjusted for monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat intake. Have a look at table 3. Dietary Fat Intake and Early Mortality Patterns-- Data from the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study. Journal of Internal Medicine. 2005.I just listed 10 prospective studies published in top peer-reviewed journals that found no association between saturated fat and heart disease risk. This is less than half of the prospective studies that have come to the same conclusion, representing by far the majority of studies to date. If saturated fat is anywhere near as harmful as we&apos;re told, why are its effects essentially undetectable in the best studies we can muster?