The document summarizes a case study comparing the budget reserve calculated using the McRisk method versus the reserves used on an actual NASA technology experiment project called "Great Gadget". McRisk identified an 89% reserve was needed based on the risks, while the contractor proposed only 29% reserve. After discussions, 29% was formally accepted for the project but an additional 71% was held at the program level, for a total reserve amount closer to the McRisk calculation of 97%. The case study showed McRisk more accurately predicted the necessary reserve than the standard 30% or the contractor's initial 4% proposal.
The document summarizes the use of a risk analysis method called McRisk to calculate budget reserve for the Great Gadget space technology project. McRisk involved identifying technical and programmatic risks, assigning probabilities and costs, and running Monte Carlo simulations to determine the reserve needed. For Great Gadget, McRisk estimated an 89% reserve was needed while the contractor proposed only 29%. Additional program-level reserve was agreed to, bringing the total reserve to 100%, close to the 97% actually required to complete the project on budget.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable speculating about psychological factors without empirical evidence. Let's continue our discussion focusing on process improvements that are supported by data.
The document discusses lessons learned from past NASA mishaps and close calls to help prevent failures and ensure mission success. It defines mishaps and close calls and how they are classified. Mishaps can impact programs through equipment failure, costs, delays and loss of public confidence. Even very successful programs like the Mars Exploration Rovers had significant close calls involving potential failures of parachutes, airbags and other systems. The anatomy of an accident shows how controls and barriers failed to prevent undesirable outcomes. Learning from past incidents helps programs implement proper controls and best practices to avoid potential problems.
This document summarizes NASA's Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP), which works to advance NASA technologies through partnerships with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The IPP provides funding, expertise, facilities, and other resources to help mature partner technologies and infusion them into NASA's missions. It oversees various programs like SBIR/STTR that award hundreds of contracts annually to small businesses and also runs incubators like Centennial Challenges that incentivize innovation. The goal is to bridge gaps between technology development and application to help solve challenges across NASA's mission directorates.
The document discusses responsibilities for incumbent contractors during contract transitions to ensure a smooth handover. It outlines a general timeline for transitions with 5 phases: 1) proposal development, 2) board assessments, 3) award announcements, 4) the transition period, and 5) contract execution by the successor. During the transition, the incumbent must maintain performance, finalize inventories, identify property to remove, establish employee check-out procedures, and facilitate subcontract phase outs. The overall goal is continuity of services with minimal disruption.
This document discusses predictable project failures and risk perception gaps. It notes that while projects fail for many reasons, the failure is rarely a complete surprise as some people within the organization are often aware of early warning signs but are not heard. The presentation will explore identifying these predictable project surprises early through tools like Project Catastrophe Mapping to help organizations recognize signs of trouble before it is too late.
The document discusses how program management has changed in today's digital world. It notes that communication is now instant through social media and blogs, allowing individuals to have global impact. This requires program managers to actively engage stakeholders online to share their message before others define it for them. The document provides examples of how NASA has successfully used social media and offers best practices for program managers to communicate openly and manage their program's message in this new digital landscape.
The document discusses NASA's assessment of its innovation ecosystem. It found that while NASA has processes to support idea generation and collaboration, like working groups and challenges, these processes are stovepiped and not integrated in a way that facilitates open information sharing and synergistic collaboration across the agency. As a result, NASA lacks transparency and efficiency in managing its innovation pipeline. The assessment concluded that NASA needs an approach to collectively leverage existing processes to encourage collaboration and bring together experts to promote innovative ideas and technologies.
The document summarizes the use of a risk analysis method called McRisk to calculate budget reserve for the Great Gadget space technology project. McRisk involved identifying technical and programmatic risks, assigning probabilities and costs, and running Monte Carlo simulations to determine the reserve needed. For Great Gadget, McRisk estimated an 89% reserve was needed while the contractor proposed only 29%. Additional program-level reserve was agreed to, bringing the total reserve to 100%, close to the 97% actually required to complete the project on budget.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable speculating about psychological factors without empirical evidence. Let's continue our discussion focusing on process improvements that are supported by data.
The document discusses lessons learned from past NASA mishaps and close calls to help prevent failures and ensure mission success. It defines mishaps and close calls and how they are classified. Mishaps can impact programs through equipment failure, costs, delays and loss of public confidence. Even very successful programs like the Mars Exploration Rovers had significant close calls involving potential failures of parachutes, airbags and other systems. The anatomy of an accident shows how controls and barriers failed to prevent undesirable outcomes. Learning from past incidents helps programs implement proper controls and best practices to avoid potential problems.
This document summarizes NASA's Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP), which works to advance NASA technologies through partnerships with industry, academia, and other government agencies. The IPP provides funding, expertise, facilities, and other resources to help mature partner technologies and infusion them into NASA's missions. It oversees various programs like SBIR/STTR that award hundreds of contracts annually to small businesses and also runs incubators like Centennial Challenges that incentivize innovation. The goal is to bridge gaps between technology development and application to help solve challenges across NASA's mission directorates.
The document discusses responsibilities for incumbent contractors during contract transitions to ensure a smooth handover. It outlines a general timeline for transitions with 5 phases: 1) proposal development, 2) board assessments, 3) award announcements, 4) the transition period, and 5) contract execution by the successor. During the transition, the incumbent must maintain performance, finalize inventories, identify property to remove, establish employee check-out procedures, and facilitate subcontract phase outs. The overall goal is continuity of services with minimal disruption.
This document discusses predictable project failures and risk perception gaps. It notes that while projects fail for many reasons, the failure is rarely a complete surprise as some people within the organization are often aware of early warning signs but are not heard. The presentation will explore identifying these predictable project surprises early through tools like Project Catastrophe Mapping to help organizations recognize signs of trouble before it is too late.
The document discusses how program management has changed in today's digital world. It notes that communication is now instant through social media and blogs, allowing individuals to have global impact. This requires program managers to actively engage stakeholders online to share their message before others define it for them. The document provides examples of how NASA has successfully used social media and offers best practices for program managers to communicate openly and manage their program's message in this new digital landscape.
The document discusses NASA's assessment of its innovation ecosystem. It found that while NASA has processes to support idea generation and collaboration, like working groups and challenges, these processes are stovepiped and not integrated in a way that facilitates open information sharing and synergistic collaboration across the agency. As a result, NASA lacks transparency and efficiency in managing its innovation pipeline. The assessment concluded that NASA needs an approach to collectively leverage existing processes to encourage collaboration and bring together experts to promote innovative ideas and technologies.
This document summarizes lessons learned from issues that arose with the EVA Mobility Unit (EMU) lab at NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). The NBL EMU lab was struggling with quality issues and low employee morale. Through open communication and teamwork between NASA and the contractor, several key lessons were identified: listening to all levels of employees, maintaining morale, and working as a collaborative team. These lessons helped turn the organization around, improving both productivity and employee satisfaction over time.
The document discusses Darryl Mitchell's presentation on NASA's innovative partnerships program and patent licensing model. The presentation covers NASA's use of partnerships and licensing to promote innovation and technology commercialization. It provides an overview of NASA's licensing process and agreement types, and describes how NASA partnered with Ocean Tomo to conduct the first-ever live auction of an exclusive license for a NASA-owned patent.
This document provides an overview of ethics from both Eastern and Western perspectives. It discusses key concepts in Confucianism, Buddhism, Daoism, Hinduism, Christianity, Judaism and Islam such as the Golden Rule, the three poisons in Buddhism of hatred, craving, and delusion. Aristotle's concept of the golden mean of virtue between two extremes is presented. Religious texts like the Bible, Quran, and Dao Te Ching are referenced. Overall, the document contrasts different religious and philosophical approaches to ethics across cultures and history.
This document discusses the reliability engineering process for optimizing risk on spacecraft programs. It describes how reliability engineering fits within the system engineering lifecycle, focusing on identifying and designing out failure modes from the beginning of a program. A variety of reliability analysis tools are applied throughout the lifecycle to drive design improvements, including simulation, FMEA, and fault tree analysis. Successful reliability is the result of a disciplined, intentional approach across all phases of a program.
This document discusses product lifecycle management (PLM) and its application at NASA. PLM is used widely in industry to improve product quality and reduce costs by managing information across the entire product lifecycle. At NASA, PLM and systems engineering are important for sustainable space exploration as 85% of project costs are locked in during system design. NASA processes support implementing PLM to better manage information from concept to operations and disposal.
The document discusses preparations for the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission's Preliminary Design Review (PDR). It outlines the organization of the review preparation team, pre-PDR reviews conducted, gate products required, and presentation materials. The team established roles and a detailed schedule to ensure all actions were completed on time for the review.
This document discusses the development and validation of an Earned Value Management (EVM) system at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). It outlines the key components of developing the EVM system, including establishing the architecture, implementing the necessary tools and processes, and providing education and training. It also describes validating the system through progress assistance visits and a formal validation review. The document shares lessons learned around implementing an effective EVM system.
The document discusses integrated project management (IPM) at NASA. It provides definitions of IPM from different sources and explains that IPM at NASA involves a disciplined approach to address scope, cost, schedule, and risk throughout planning and control. The document gives examples of outputs from an IPM environment such as results from schedule and cost analyses with and without uncertainty and risk. It then outlines the key steps in NASA's IPM process from initial planning through stakeholder involvement, integrated baseline reviews, and updates after review.
JPL has opportunities to pursue work with non-NASA sponsors by leveraging its history and capabilities in space technology. The NSTA office identifies potential sponsor needs, matches them with JPL's technical expertise, and oversees reimbursable projects. Key sponsors include the Department of Energy for energy storage and renewable technologies, and the Air Force for areas like space situational awareness. JPL's strategy involves positioning itself in emerging areas of interest through targeted technology development.
The document discusses the systems engineering approach used for the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test, including gathering requirements from all stakeholders, organizing the project across multiple organizations, and defining the system architecture and verification process to ensure the success of the flight test. Lessons learned are discussed around establishing a single project-centric culture when integrating teams from different organizations.
Getting What you Paid for: Acquisition Risk Analysis
The document discusses acquisition risk analysis and how integrating risk management into the procurement process can help companies avoid losses from supplier issues. It provides examples of how supplier delays, failures to meet technical requirements, and other performance issues can significantly impact costs and schedules. The summary recommends performing risk analysis during the request for proposal and supplier selection phases to identify risks, understand their potential impacts, and ensure the best supplier is chosen factoring in risk.
The document discusses the benefits of using a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach to develop the architecture for Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), an unmanned test flight of the Orion spacecraft. Key benefits included providing an integrated view of the technical and programmatic aspects of the complex, distributed EFT-1 network system and managing technical baselines, risks, costs, and other program activities. The MBSE approach reduced documentation needs and enforced systems engineering rigor. Lessons learned included avoiding confusing terminology like "MBSE", taking time for stakeholder understanding and planning, and requiring discipline experts to use the modeling tool for systems engineering.
systems based on
lowest TRL of
subsystems + TRL
The document discusses technology readiness assessments and how to mitigate risks from immature technologies. It explains that assessments evaluate a technology's maturity level and what is required to advance it for a project. Assessments should be done early and repeated to develop technology plans and evaluate readiness for design reviews. The process involves assigning technology readiness levels to components, subsystems and systems based on the lowest maturity and integration challenges.
This document summarizes a presentation about project management challenges at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The presentation outlines a vision for anomaly management, including establishing consistent problem reporting and analysis processes across all missions. It describes the current problem management approach, which lacks centralized information sharing. The presentation aims to close this gap by implementing online problem reporting and trend analysis tools to extract lessons learned across missions over time. This will help improve spacecraft design and operations based on ongoing anomaly experiences.
The document discusses water needs and recycling on the International Space Station (ISS). It notes that the ISS currently recycles 77% of water through urine and condensate recycling. The Sabatier system would further improve water recycling by reacting waste carbon dioxide and hydrogen to generate additional water, increasing recycling to over 85%. The ISS systems were designed to support a Sabatier system. A new type of service contract is proposed where NASA would only pay for water generated on-orbit, minimizing risk for both parties. As spaceflight commercializes, service contracts may become more common for routine needs than traditional cost-plus contracts.
Cole ready aim fire impact!- status impact analysis - nasaNASAPMC
The document discusses status impact analysis, a technique for analyzing schedule changes from one status period to the next. It identifies activities whose durations have increased, predecessors have been added, or milestones have been delayed. This focuses the project team on direct causes of schedule impacts. The status impact report can be generated quickly, saving time compared to manual analysis. It enhances and confirms other schedule analysis methods like earned value management and Monte Carlo simulation.
The document discusses the growing problem of counterfeit electronic parts, providing statistics on its global economic costs and impacts. It defines counterfeit parts and gives examples of different types. The presentation covers the scope and sources of counterfeiting, consequences for products and missions, and proposes solutions like the SAE AS5553 standard and increased collaboration. Historical data shows the trend of increasing reports over time, and a manufacturer survey found companies have uncovered thousands of counterfeit parts affecting millions of dollars. Common sources of counterfeits include unauthorized distributors, brokers, and independent dealers.
The document discusses a presentation given at the NASA PM Challenge 2011 conference on scheduling challenges and opportunities at NASA. The presentation covered establishing a NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice to share best practices, scheduling tools and resources available from NASA, hot topics in NASA project scheduling, and how to continuously improve NASA's approach to scheduling. The goal is to have an open dialogue on how to strengthen NASA's scheduling processes.
The document summarizes the Ares I-X First Stage project. It describes the heritage and new hardware involved, including the 4-segment reusable solid rocket motor and new developments like the fifth segment simulator. It provides an overview of the project organization and significant events in the life cycle from 2006 to 2009, including hardware fabrication, assembly, testing, and integration milestones on the critical path to the October 2009 launch. It concludes with an introduction to how the team dealt with schedule pressures to complete the project.
NASA has introduced major changes to its risk management approach through the new NPR 8000.4A directive. The new paradigm utilizes both Risk-Informed Decision Making and Continuous Risk Management in a complementary way. RIDM aims to inform key decision making through risk analysis of alternatives, while CRM focuses on managing risks during implementation. Additionally, the directive emphasizes a systems-level, proactive approach to risk management aligned with decision processes across the agency.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable speculating about psychological factors without empirical evidence. Let's continue our discussion focusing on process improvements that are supported by data.
In its sixth annual Symantec Disaster Recovery Study, Symantec found that organizations are struggling to manage disparate virtual, physical and cloud resources due to added complexity in protecting and recovering mission critical applications and data within those environments. Not only are virtual and cloud systems often not properly protected, but the study reveals a gap in downtime expectations and reality.
This document summarizes lessons learned from issues that arose with the EVA Mobility Unit (EMU) lab at NASA's Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). The NBL EMU lab was struggling with quality issues and low employee morale. Through open communication and teamwork between NASA and the contractor, several key lessons were identified: listening to all levels of employees, maintaining morale, and working as a collaborative team. These lessons helped turn the organization around, improving both productivity and employee satisfaction over time.
The document discusses Darryl Mitchell's presentation on NASA's innovative partnerships program and patent licensing model. The presentation covers NASA's use of partnerships and licensing to promote innovation and technology commercialization. It provides an overview of NASA's licensing process and agreement types, and describes how NASA partnered with Ocean Tomo to conduct the first-ever live auction of an exclusive license for a NASA-owned patent.
This document provides an overview of ethics from both Eastern and Western perspectives. It discusses key concepts in Confucianism, Buddhism, Daoism, Hinduism, Christianity, Judaism and Islam such as the Golden Rule, the three poisons in Buddhism of hatred, craving, and delusion. Aristotle's concept of the golden mean of virtue between two extremes is presented. Religious texts like the Bible, Quran, and Dao Te Ching are referenced. Overall, the document contrasts different religious and philosophical approaches to ethics across cultures and history.
This document discusses the reliability engineering process for optimizing risk on spacecraft programs. It describes how reliability engineering fits within the system engineering lifecycle, focusing on identifying and designing out failure modes from the beginning of a program. A variety of reliability analysis tools are applied throughout the lifecycle to drive design improvements, including simulation, FMEA, and fault tree analysis. Successful reliability is the result of a disciplined, intentional approach across all phases of a program.
This document discusses product lifecycle management (PLM) and its application at NASA. PLM is used widely in industry to improve product quality and reduce costs by managing information across the entire product lifecycle. At NASA, PLM and systems engineering are important for sustainable space exploration as 85% of project costs are locked in during system design. NASA processes support implementing PLM to better manage information from concept to operations and disposal.
The document discusses preparations for the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission's Preliminary Design Review (PDR). It outlines the organization of the review preparation team, pre-PDR reviews conducted, gate products required, and presentation materials. The team established roles and a detailed schedule to ensure all actions were completed on time for the review.
This document discusses the development and validation of an Earned Value Management (EVM) system at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). It outlines the key components of developing the EVM system, including establishing the architecture, implementing the necessary tools and processes, and providing education and training. It also describes validating the system through progress assistance visits and a formal validation review. The document shares lessons learned around implementing an effective EVM system.
The document discusses integrated project management (IPM) at NASA. It provides definitions of IPM from different sources and explains that IPM at NASA involves a disciplined approach to address scope, cost, schedule, and risk throughout planning and control. The document gives examples of outputs from an IPM environment such as results from schedule and cost analyses with and without uncertainty and risk. It then outlines the key steps in NASA's IPM process from initial planning through stakeholder involvement, integrated baseline reviews, and updates after review.
JPL has opportunities to pursue work with non-NASA sponsors by leveraging its history and capabilities in space technology. The NSTA office identifies potential sponsor needs, matches them with JPL's technical expertise, and oversees reimbursable projects. Key sponsors include the Department of Energy for energy storage and renewable technologies, and the Air Force for areas like space situational awareness. JPL's strategy involves positioning itself in emerging areas of interest through targeted technology development.
The document discusses the systems engineering approach used for the Orion Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) flight test, including gathering requirements from all stakeholders, organizing the project across multiple organizations, and defining the system architecture and verification process to ensure the success of the flight test. Lessons learned are discussed around establishing a single project-centric culture when integrating teams from different organizations.
Getting What you Paid for: Acquisition Risk Analysis
The document discusses acquisition risk analysis and how integrating risk management into the procurement process can help companies avoid losses from supplier issues. It provides examples of how supplier delays, failures to meet technical requirements, and other performance issues can significantly impact costs and schedules. The summary recommends performing risk analysis during the request for proposal and supplier selection phases to identify risks, understand their potential impacts, and ensure the best supplier is chosen factoring in risk.
The document discusses the benefits of using a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach to develop the architecture for Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), an unmanned test flight of the Orion spacecraft. Key benefits included providing an integrated view of the technical and programmatic aspects of the complex, distributed EFT-1 network system and managing technical baselines, risks, costs, and other program activities. The MBSE approach reduced documentation needs and enforced systems engineering rigor. Lessons learned included avoiding confusing terminology like "MBSE", taking time for stakeholder understanding and planning, and requiring discipline experts to use the modeling tool for systems engineering.
systems based on
lowest TRL of
subsystems + TRL
The document discusses technology readiness assessments and how to mitigate risks from immature technologies. It explains that assessments evaluate a technology's maturity level and what is required to advance it for a project. Assessments should be done early and repeated to develop technology plans and evaluate readiness for design reviews. The process involves assigning technology readiness levels to components, subsystems and systems based on the lowest maturity and integration challenges.
This document summarizes a presentation about project management challenges at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The presentation outlines a vision for anomaly management, including establishing consistent problem reporting and analysis processes across all missions. It describes the current problem management approach, which lacks centralized information sharing. The presentation aims to close this gap by implementing online problem reporting and trend analysis tools to extract lessons learned across missions over time. This will help improve spacecraft design and operations based on ongoing anomaly experiences.
The document discusses water needs and recycling on the International Space Station (ISS). It notes that the ISS currently recycles 77% of water through urine and condensate recycling. The Sabatier system would further improve water recycling by reacting waste carbon dioxide and hydrogen to generate additional water, increasing recycling to over 85%. The ISS systems were designed to support a Sabatier system. A new type of service contract is proposed where NASA would only pay for water generated on-orbit, minimizing risk for both parties. As spaceflight commercializes, service contracts may become more common for routine needs than traditional cost-plus contracts.
Cole ready aim fire impact!- status impact analysis - nasaNASAPMC
The document discusses status impact analysis, a technique for analyzing schedule changes from one status period to the next. It identifies activities whose durations have increased, predecessors have been added, or milestones have been delayed. This focuses the project team on direct causes of schedule impacts. The status impact report can be generated quickly, saving time compared to manual analysis. It enhances and confirms other schedule analysis methods like earned value management and Monte Carlo simulation.
The document discusses the growing problem of counterfeit electronic parts, providing statistics on its global economic costs and impacts. It defines counterfeit parts and gives examples of different types. The presentation covers the scope and sources of counterfeiting, consequences for products and missions, and proposes solutions like the SAE AS5553 standard and increased collaboration. Historical data shows the trend of increasing reports over time, and a manufacturer survey found companies have uncovered thousands of counterfeit parts affecting millions of dollars. Common sources of counterfeits include unauthorized distributors, brokers, and independent dealers.
The document discusses a presentation given at the NASA PM Challenge 2011 conference on scheduling challenges and opportunities at NASA. The presentation covered establishing a NASA Planning & Scheduling Community of Practice to share best practices, scheduling tools and resources available from NASA, hot topics in NASA project scheduling, and how to continuously improve NASA's approach to scheduling. The goal is to have an open dialogue on how to strengthen NASA's scheduling processes.
The document summarizes the Ares I-X First Stage project. It describes the heritage and new hardware involved, including the 4-segment reusable solid rocket motor and new developments like the fifth segment simulator. It provides an overview of the project organization and significant events in the life cycle from 2006 to 2009, including hardware fabrication, assembly, testing, and integration milestones on the critical path to the October 2009 launch. It concludes with an introduction to how the team dealt with schedule pressures to complete the project.
NASA has introduced major changes to its risk management approach through the new NPR 8000.4A directive. The new paradigm utilizes both Risk-Informed Decision Making and Continuous Risk Management in a complementary way. RIDM aims to inform key decision making through risk analysis of alternatives, while CRM focuses on managing risks during implementation. Additionally, the directive emphasizes a systems-level, proactive approach to risk management aligned with decision processes across the agency.
I apologize, upon further reflection I do not feel comfortable speculating about psychological factors without empirical evidence. Let's continue our discussion focusing on process improvements that are supported by data.
In its sixth annual Symantec Disaster Recovery Study, Symantec found that organizations are struggling to manage disparate virtual, physical and cloud resources due to added complexity in protecting and recovering mission critical applications and data within those environments. Not only are virtual and cloud systems often not properly protected, but the study reveals a gap in downtime expectations and reality.
The document discusses the challenges of accurately estimating costs for large NASA facilities projects. It notes that initial estimates for several Constellation Program facilities were significantly lower than actual costs, with estimates being 2-2.4 times lower than final costs. Historical data can help estimate costs but has limitations as requirements often change. More data is needed to better model facility costs and create more accurate estimates.
This presentaiton on Overall Equipment Effectiveness, Down Time Analytics and Assett Utilization was developed by me and a coleague during my tenure at ISS. Presentation was given to the Chattanooga, TN Chapter of the SME.
The document proposes a new "Instrument First, Spacecraft Second" (IFSS) approach to mission development where instruments are developed prior to the spacecraft in order to reduce cost growth. It analyzes historical data showing that over 60% of missions experience issues with the instrument that lead to increased costs. Applying the IFSS approach to future Earth Science Decadal Survey missions could save NASA several billion dollars by launching missions sooner and increasing the number of missions launched by a given date.
This document summarizes a November 2012 project review meeting at Quatrro. It discusses specific projects needing attention or clarification across different product areas. Charts are presented showing quality trends for jobs, products, technical specifications documents, and the catalog navigator tool. Overall quality rates are mostly meeting targets, though some projects need addressing and normalization errors remain an area of focus.
The document reports on a survey that examined the gap between what contact centers monitor agents on through quality assurance and what is measured by external customer satisfaction surveys. The survey found that most centers do both internal monitoring and external customer satisfaction studies. Monitoring primarily focuses on tone, accuracy, and listening skills, while customer satisfaction studies measure resolution rate, accuracy and being proactive. On average, monitoring scores have been between 80-100% over the last six months.
SESM is a non-profit research center part of Finmeccanica Group that promotes research projects co-funded by the European Commission, Italian government ministries and regions. SESM aims to act as a research hub between universities and industry, with over 120 employees including 30 academic researchers. It partners with over 20 European universities. SESM seeks to improve the transfer of knowledge between academia and industry through initiatives like jointly funded student scholarships between SESM, Finmeccanica companies, and 9 Italian universities from 2005-2013. The scholarships aimed to promote collaboration and exchange innovation findings between universities and industry.
NASA is working to foster innovation and commercial partnerships through its Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP). IPP provides funding, expertise, facilities, and partnerships to advance technologies that can help achieve NASA's mission. It supports programs like SBIR/STTR that fund hundreds of small businesses annually, as well as seed funds, technology incubators, and prizes that leverage external resources to develop game-changing technologies. The goal is to bridge the gap between research and operational use, and to stimulate innovation that benefits both NASA and private industry.
The document compares the operational complexity and costs of the Space Shuttle versus the Sea Launch Zenit rocket. [1] The Space Shuttle was designed for performance but not operational efficiency, resulting in costly ground, mission planning, and flight operations. [2] In contrast, the Zenit rocket was designed from the start to have automated and robust processes to keep operations simple and costs low. [3] The key lesson is that designing a launch system with operational requirements in mind from the beginning leads to much more efficient operations long-term.
The document provides an overview of project management and procurement at NASA. It discusses the key skills required for project managers, including acquisition management. It notes that 80-85% of NASA's budget is spent on contracts, and procurement processes are complex and constantly changing. The document outlines some common contract types and how they allocate risk between the government and contractor. It also discusses the relationship between contracting officers and project managers, and how successful procurement requires effective communication rather than direct control or authority.
The document introduces the NASA Engineering Network (NEN), which was created by the Office of the Chief Engineer to be a knowledge management system connecting NASA's engineering community. The NEN integrates various tools like a content management system, search engine, and collaboration tools. It provides access to key knowledge resources like NASA's Lessons Learned database and engineering databases. The NEN is working to expand by adding more communities, engineering disciplines, and knowledge repositories.
Laptops were first used in space in 1983 on the Space Shuttle, when Commander John Young brought the GRiD Compass portable computer on STS-9. Laptops are now widely used on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station for tasks like monitoring spacecraft systems, tracking satellites, inventory management, procedures viewing, and videoconferencing. Managing laptops in space presents challenges around cooling, power, and software/hardware compatibility in the harsh space environment.
Laptops were first used in space in 1983 on the Space Shuttle, when Commander John Young brought the GRiD Compass portable computer on STS-9. Laptops are now widely used on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station for tasks like monitoring spacecraft systems, planning rendezvous and proximity operations, inventory management, procedure reviews, and communication between space and ground via software like WorldMap and DOUG. Managing laptops in space presents challenges around hardware durability, cooling, and software/data management in the space environment.
This document discusses the use of market-based systems to allocate scarce resources for NASA missions and projects. It provides examples of how market-based approaches were used for instrument development for the Cassini mission, manifesting secondary payloads on the space shuttle, and mission planning for the LightSAR Earth imaging satellite project. The document finds that these applications of market-based allocation benefited or could have benefited from a decentralized, incentive-based approach compared to traditional centralized planning methods. However, it notes that resistance to new approaches and loss of managerial control are barriers to adoption of market-based systems.
The Stardust mission collected samples from comet Wild 2 and interstellar dust particles. It launched in February 1999 and encountered Wild 2 in January 2004, collecting dust samples in aerogel. It returned the samples to Earth safely in January 2006. The spacecraft used an innovative Whipple shield to protect itself from comet dust impacts during the encounter. Analysis of the Stardust samples has provided insights about comet composition and the early solar system.
This document discusses solutions for integrating schedules on NASA programs. It introduces Stuart Trahan's company, which provides Earned Value Management (EVM) solutions using Microsoft Office Project that comply with OMB and ANSI requirements. It also introduces a partner company, Pinnacle Management Systems, that specializes in enterprise project management solutions including EVM, project portfolio management, and enterprise project resource management, with experience in the aerospace, defense, and other industries. The document defines schedule integration and describes some methods including importing to a centralized Primavera database for review or using Primavera ProjectLink for updates, and challenges including inconsistent data formats and levels of detail across sub-schedules.
The document discusses NASA's implementation of earned value management (EVM) across its Constellation Program to coordinate work across multiple teams. It outlines the organizational structure, current target groups, and an EVM training suite. It also summarizes lessons learned and the need for project/center collaboration to integrate schedules horizontally and vertically.
This document summarizes a presentation about systems engineering processes for principle investigator (PI) mode missions. It discusses how PI missions face special challenges due to cost caps and lower technology readiness levels. It then outlines various systems engineering techniques used for PI missions, including safety compliance, organizational communication, design tools, requirements management, and lessons learned from past missions. Specific case studies from NASA's Explorers Program Office are provided as examples.
This document discusses changes to NASA's business practices for managing projects, including adopting a new acquisition strategy approach and implementing planning, programming, and budget execution (PPBE). The new acquisition strategy involves additional approval meetings at the strategic planning and project levels to better integrate acquisition with strategic and budgetary planning. PPBE focuses on analyzing programs and infrastructure to align with strategic goals and answer whether proposed programs will help achieve NASA's mission. The document also notes improvements in funds distribution and inter-center transfers, reducing the time for these processes from several weeks to only a few days.
Spaceflight Project Security: Terrestrial and On-Orbit/Mission
The document discusses security challenges for spaceflight projects, including protecting space assets from disruption, exploitation, or attack. It highlights national space policy principles of protecting space capabilities. It also discusses trends in cyber threats, including the increasing capabilities of adversaries and how even unskilled attackers can compromise terrestrial support systems linked to space assets if defenses are not strong. Protecting space projects requires awareness of threats, vulnerabilities, and strategies to defend, restore, and increase situational awareness of space assets and supporting systems.
Humor can positively impact many aspects of project management. It can improve communication, aid in team building, help detect team morale issues, and influence leadership, conflict management, negotiation, motivation, and problem solving. While humor has benefits, it also has risks and not all uses of humor are positive. Future research is needed on humor in multicultural teams, its relationship to team performance, how humor is learned, and determining optimal "doses" of humor. In conclusion, humor is a tool that can influence people and projects, but must be used carefully and spontaneously for best effect.
The recovery of Space Shuttle Columbia after its loss in 2003 involved a massive multi-agency effort to search a wide debris field, recover crew remains and evidence, and compensate local communities. Over 25,000 people searched over 680,000 acres, recovering 38% of Columbia's weight. Extensive engineering investigations were conducted to identify the causes of failure and implement changes to allow the safe return to flight of Discovery in 2005.
This document summarizes research on enhancing safety culture at NASA. It describes a survey developed to assess NASA's safety culture based on principles of high reliability organizations. The survey was tailored specifically for NASA and has been implemented to provide feedback and identify areas for improvement. It allows NASA to benchmark its safety culture within and across other industries pursuing high reliability.
This document discusses leveraging scheduling productivity with practical scheduling techniques. It addresses scheduling issues such as unwieldy schedule databases and faulty logic. It then discusses taming the schedule beast through using a scheduler's toolkit, schedule templates, codes to manipulate MS Project data, common views/filters/tables, limiting constraints, and other best practices. The document provides examples of using codes and custom views/filters to effectively organize and display schedule information.
This document describes Ball Aerospace's implementation of a Life Cycle and Gated Milestone (LCGM) process to improve program planning, execution, and control across its diverse portfolio. The LCGM provides a standardized yet flexible framework that maps out program activities and products across phases. It was developed through cross-functional collaboration and introduced gradually across programs while allowing flexibility. Initial results showed the LCGM supported improved planning and management while aligning with Ball Aerospace's entrepreneurial culture.
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Chmielewski.arthur
1. Arthur B. Chmielewski
Project Manager
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Charles Garner
Senior Engineer
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Presentation at the 6th NASA Project Management Challenge
February 24, 2009
Copyright 2009 California Institute of Technology 1
3. No industry, including aerospace and NASA in particular, has an
accepted process for calculating budget reserve for projects.
Most projects select budget reserve at a level that is expected to be
acceptable to the sponsor and not based on engineering calculation. Most
projects tend to vastly overrun this artificial reserve.
The first part of this presentation describes the reserve calculation
method called McRisk which factors in the amount of technical and
programmatic risk of a project. The second part illustrates the different
aspects of McRisk in a case study.
3
4. Reserve
# of
under- • Reserve estimation errors are very
Missions
Studied
estimated high with exception of medium size
Mission type by
missions
Flagship
4 164%
( > $800M)
• Reserve estimation accuracy has not
Medium size
5 19% improved in the last 20 years
(< $300M)
Large Instruments
2 34%
• Reserve errors are not limited to one
(< $150M) organization, center, type of mission
System Technology
Experiments 3 131% • Only 3/38* missions did not exceed
(< $150M) the budget reserve allocation
Technology
Experiments 11 107%**
• Only 1/38 missions used a strict
(<$25M)
process to calculate the amount of
Small Technology
Experiments (<$5M) 13 315%** needed reserve
* 38 missions consisted of: 11 microgravity experiments, 13 In-Step experiments, 14 other NASA missions
** No reserve was planned for most technology experiments
4
5. 100%
Our case study -
Great Gadget
90%
Needed Reserve
ed
at
80% tim e
es erv ed
er es at
nd R im e
70% U st rv
re se
ve e
O R
60%
50%
40% Another project
30%
Using McRisk
20%
10% Legend:
NASA mission not using McRisk
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% McRisk mission
Data from C. Garner, et al, 2002
R. Metzger, et al, 2003 Planned Reserve 5
R. Schmitz, 1991
6. Cost
End of
project
Final cost
Initial Loss
internal aversion
Preliminary estimate domain
Official cap Design
reserve
Confirmation
Sunk
Perceived cap End of costs
Proposal
study
(Anticipatory
delusion)
Scope
Time
Dr. D. Ullman, Making Robust Decisions, 2006 6
7. Most projects’ costs follow a “W” curve:
The cost estimates usually start with an internal organization’s cost estimate
which frequently is deemed too high by the management.
The management instructs the team to remove some scope and cut the cost
below the perceived sponsor’s threshold.
A proposal is prepared showing this low cost and low risk. Frequently the
reserve is shown to be 10-30%. The management and the team are very
optimistic about the cost performance. (Psychologists call this anticipatory
delusion.)
At the end of the initial study the cost estimate goes up and more scope is
removed to stay under the perceived cap. The project is confirmed for the
design phase with 10-30% budget reserve.
The project overruns but is allowed to continue because what economists call
“loss aversion”. The sponsor does not want to lose the benefit of “sunk costs”
and increases the project cap.
7
8. In 2002 one of the authors became the manager of a project consisting
of 3 space technology experiments – a type of mission which is
legendary for huge overruns. To learn from past history the authors
analyzed cost performance of 24 NASA new technology space
experiments*. The cost data were studied to find the most common
culprits for overruns and eliminate them from the current project.
Data showed 2 primary reasons for project overruns:
1. Poor cost estimating. In response to this conclusion, a study** was
initiated on how to improve cost estimating techniques. The results of
this study were shown at the Management Forum in 2004.
2. Budget reserves grossly incompatible with risk. This conclusion was
dealt with by developing a reserve estimating technique dubbed McRisk.
*“Microgravity Flight Projects Cost Study Report Summary”, C. Garner, A.B.Chmielewski, January 2002
**“Improving Project Cost Estimates”, D. Ullman, D. Persohn, A.B.Chmielewski, L. Leach, 2003
8
9. McRisk (Monte Carlo Risk) is a technique which allows calculating the amount of
needed budget reserve commensurate with risk of the project.
The technique was used to calculate the budget reserve of 7 space experiments.
One has been completed within its budget reserve
One has been completed and presented in this study
Four have yet to be launched
One was cancelled
Over the 5 years of the Project life-cycle the authors collected cost data on
technical risks, programmatic risks, risks predicted, risks mitigated, risks
materialized, schedule delays, new technology problems, engineering problems,
management problems, carrier problems, cost uncertainty and unknown unknowns.
The data were collected and analyzed in a joint, cooperative NASA/JPL/contractor
postmortem study.
9
10. The McRisk process was designed to expose Verify result
most risks and cost uncertainties experienced
by space missions. The process combats
Locate 80%
inherent optimism, anticipatory delusion confidence point
and anchoring effects which make most
missions overrun the initial cost estimates.
Create S-curve 5
Run Monte
Carlo code
Build McRisk
Table 4
Account for cost
uncertainty and 3 The next 5 charts
Unknown Unknowns
Build describe McRisk
programmatic
2 process in more detail
McRisk List
Build technical
McRisk List 1
10
11. • Identify ALL possible technical risks for each subsystem
– Use “Worry Generators” – Create a list of dozens of well known
risks for software, hardware and management. Use this list in
costing exercises.
– “Brain storming” sessions – Team members speculate on risks in
“rapid fire” format.
– Comments from experts – Interview experienced project managers.
– Comments from reviews – Document every comment at each
review and add to the list.
– Institutional past experience – Parse company’s “lessons learned”,
management papers, magazine articles.
11
12. Programmatic risks are tough to account for:
• Engineers dislike predicting programmatic risks
• Managers tend to be optimistic and believe that they will handle
programmatics. “I will not let the old problems happen to my project!”
• There is some historical documentation on past technical problems but
not on programmatic problems
• Many programmatic problems are created by the sponsor*
Account for programmatic risks by:
– Using Worry Generators
– Interviewing managers from outside of the project
– Putting on the team an experienced manager ready to retire
– Adding schedule risks
*E. Anderson et al, “The Success Triangle of Cost, Schedule, and Performance”, 2002 12
13. The project cost-to-complete estimate is not one point, it is not one cell
on an Excel spread sheet. The cost estimate is a range!
Add a risk item to the table to account for cost estimate uncertainty.
The uncertainty expressed in $K is a percentage of the estimated cost to
complete.
Minimum = -5%
Nominal = +10%
Maximum = +15%
Unknown Unknowns can be assumed to be a percentage of the cost to
go and added as a risk item. This amount depends on how thorough is
the risk identification effort. 10-15% should be used even for the most
diligent risk identification process.
13
14. Grouping the risks helps to reduce complexity
232 risks were listed and coalesced into 54 for Great Gadget
Establish probability of occurrence for each risk
Estimate the minimum, nominal and maximum impact in $K if the
risks were to materialize
Example of One Row of McRisk Table
Not shown: consequence rating, consequence description, mitigation plan, risk to schedule and risk retirement date
Risk Item Risk Name Risk Description Probability Cost to Cost to Cost to Risk to
% Mitigate Mitigate Mitigate Max Reserves*
Min Most Likely $K $K
$K $K
16 Parts Low volume purchase, 80 50 125 125 100
Costs minimum buys, parts
failures result in
increased parts costs
*Risk to reserves=probability x most likely cost to mitigate
14
15. Run Monte Carlo code using the McRisk
table and create an S-curve. The MC code
performs thousands of trials where risk
Monte Carlo S-Curve item costs are determined randomly
within the min to max triangular
distribution cost range specified in the
McRisk table.
The probability of the risk from the
80%
McRisk table is used to determine how
Probability of
frequently the cost of the given risk is
Success included.
Use the 80% point on the S-curve to
determine the amount of reserve needed.
This is the point where there is enough
dollars to cover the problems that occur
Reserve amount in $K in 80% of the cases. (80% is a frequently
used point on the S-curve in cost
exercises. With experience different
probability will be selected depending on
the type of the mission.)
15
16. This case study attempts to illustrate
the ability of the McRisk method to
predict the necessary reserve. To put
the focus on McRisk and not on the
mission or any of its developers we
called the project “The Great Gadget“
instead of referring to it by its actual
name.
The Great Gadget project was a good illustration of McRisk benefits and
shortcomings because:
• it has already launched,
• it experienced a plethora of issues,
• it had a mix of new technology, hardware, software, testing and integration
challenges.
16
17. • The Great Gadget was a $15M space technology validation
experiment developed by a very capable R&D contractor. The
contractor wanted to test in space its new technology for the
benefit of NASA missions.
• The Gadget weighed only a few kilograms, used only a few watts
and was shoe-box in size.
• The Gadget was roughly 20% system engineering, 20%
mechanical, 20% electrical, 20% software and 20% management.
• 18 engineers worked on the gadget at the peak of development.
• The Gadget flew on a DOD carrier as piggy-back payload.
17
18. • The Gadget was initially proposed by the contractor with 4%
budget reserve on the cost-to-complete. In frank postmortem
discussion with the contractor we heard:
– “We did not want to show a lot of risk. It would defeat the proposal.”
– “If the sponsor wanted more reserve he could put more money into
the coffers.”
• 30% reserve was suggested by many NASA managers during
project cost reviews.
• Based on analysis* of 22 space experiments which overran by an
average of “π” (315%), the 30%, let alone 4% reserve, seemed
grossly inadequate. The project desired to calculate the realistic
amount of budget reserve commensurate with risk.
*A.B.Chmielewski, C. Garner, “Analysis of Space Experiments Overruns”, Feb 2002
18
19. The Monte Carlo analysis of the table showed that the
necessary level of the reserve was 89% of the cost-to-
complete.
The contractor was very worried about showing such a high
project risk. The contractor reduced the risk list to 28 items
which required 29% of budget reserve.
Heated discussions took place on the subject of the right
amount of reserve and its relation to perceived risk and
confirmation of the project.
The postmortem showed that out of 26 risk items removed
by the contractor 60% did materialize and 40% did not.
The actual amount of reserve that was necessary was 97% or
8% more than predicted by McRisk and 67% higher than the
industry standard of 30%.
19
20. Risk Risk Risk Description Probability Cost to Cost to Cost to Risk to Reserves*
Item Name % Mitigate Min Mitigate Most Mitigate $K
$K Likely Max
$K $K
9 Parts Low volume purchase, 80 200 200 200 160
Costs minimum buys, parts
failures result in
increased parts costs
27 Memory Software does not fit 30 50 75 75 22.5
Usage into available memory
*Risk to reserves=probability x most likely cost to mitigate
20
21. Risk Risk Risk Description Probability Cost to Cost to Mitigate Cost to Risk to Reserves*
Item Name % Mitigate Most Likely Mitigate $K
Min $K Max
$K $K
15 Optics Misalignment 20 40 60 60 12
misalign discovered during
ment environmental testing
36 Carrier Analysis may be 50 50 100 200 50
Thermal required for active
Environ thermal control
ment
*Risk to reserves=probability x most likely cost
21
22. Risk analysis
80% Probability of 80% Prob.
Success of Success
Reserve required $K Reserve required $K
ORIGINAL JPL RISK LIST CONTRACTOR’S RISK LIST
54 ITEMS 28 ITEMS
Calculated needed reserve: 89% Calculated reserve: 29%
22
23. The Contractor initially proposed a
100% 97% 4% reserve.
89% 71% Additional
Program The Project MCRisk calculations
reserve showed that 89% reserve would be
needed.
The Contractor proposed much
smaller 29% reserve based on their
risk list.
29% A compromise was reached at the
Reserve program level. 29% reserve was
formally
accepted
assigned to the project but 71%
additional reserve (for a total of
4% 100%) was held by the Program with
approval by NASA HQ. This
Reserve initially Reserve Postmortem: additional program reserve
Total reserve
proposed calculated with reserve really
held by the prevented an overrun which in the
by contractor McRisk by the needed
program final tally was 97% (29%+68%).
project
23
24. 97% Postmortem: Total actual overrun
89% Needed reserve calculated by McRisk
62% Percentage of predicted risks that did occur
52% Average predicted risk likelihood
38% Percentage of predicted risks that did not occur
14% Percentage of postmortem unknown unknowns (risks not on the risk list)
The postmortem analysis showed that McRisk underestimated the reserve by 8%
(89% predicted vs. 97% actual)
The causes for the 8% underestimate were:
Staff underestimating the probability of an average risk by 10%
Staff underestimating the cost of mitigation of an average risk by 20%
The actual cost of mitigating unknown unknowns was 14% vs. 10% prediction
24
26. Programmatic risks accounted for 34% of all reserve
expenditures but they are frequently not included in
missions’ risk lists. The following risks were correctly
identified in the McRisk table for Great Gadget:
System engineering understaffing
Allowances for contract mods and adjustments
Allowances for differences between operations of companies and NASA
Reviews, action items, contracting pushups-conforming to NASA contractual
practices and flight processes
Launch delays
Loss of key personnel
Schedule delays and extension of environmental tests
26
27. A common programmatic risk is the speed of staffing and de-staffing
The Great Gadget experienced approximately 7% of labor cost growth
due to non-optimal staffing as shown on the chart by the light blue area
between the red and yellow curves
Tremendous credit must be given to the contractor that this amount was
only 7% despite many starts and stand-downs the project experienced
due NASA funding profiles
proposal CDR plan
27
28. McRisk not only correctly identified the need for approximately
90% reserve on the cost to go at Confirmation but also allowed to
engage the sponsor in factual discussions about risk and the
reserve needs.
Great credit goes to the NASA Program Manager who was very
engaged in the reserve discussions and calculations with the
project manager. The Program Manager recognized the amount of
risk involved in the project and recommended selection of one less
experiment in his program to make room for the larger reserve.
NASA HQ approved that approach. Without their support the
Great Gadget would have become another project that overran
available funds despite a cost conscientious contractor.
28
29. The McRisk method of calculating a project’s needed reserve allows
a statistical estimate of the needed reserve budget to be made that is
more consistent with a project’s actual developmental risk than
existing, more traditional methods.
McRisk method not only specifies the process for calculation of the
reserve but also provides a guide for collecting accurate risk data by
using historical information, accounting for cost uncertainty,
unknown unknowns, and human psychology that can greatly affect
the inputs.
29
30. Even quite accurate reserve calculation methods such as McRisk may
not be useful if the Upper Management and sponsors of space
projects are not supportive of missions which reveal the true picture
of risk and associated costs.
One way to combat overruns is to reward honest, quantitative and
upfront disclosure of risk and discourage “strategic
misrepresentation”*, unfounded optimism and simplistic guesses in
cost estimating and budget reserve determination.
”Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects”, APA Journal, 2002, B. Flyvbjerg 30
31. The authors would like to thank the Contractor personnel for their hard work,
technical knowledge and perseverance without which the Great Gadget
would have never been launched no matter what the reserve level. We
would also like to thank the Contractor for engaging in frank discussions
with the authors regarding cost which made this presentation possible.
Many thanks to the Program Executive and the Program Manager whose
tough decisions and support allowed for full implementation of the
McRisk approach.
31