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00 2nd PIAAC Conference
Skilled for Life?
Andreas Schleicher
22 November 2015
Increased likelihood of positive outcomes
among adults with higher literacy skills
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Being
Employed
High...
The kind of things that
are easy to teach are
now easy to automate,
digitize or outsource
Changes in the demand for skills
Trends in different tasks in occupations (United States)
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1960 197...
Robotics
>1m km,
one minor accident,
occasional human
intervention
Augmented Reality
Bifurcated productivity growth.
7
Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100)
Manufacturing Services
Source: OECD, The Future ...
A lot more to come
• 3D printing
• Synthetic biology
• Brain enhancements
• Nanomaterials
• Etc.
The Race between Technology and Education
Inspired by “Theracebetween
technology and education”
Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard...
Better skills, better jobs, better lives
Better jobs and better lives
How can
economies
best use
their skills
How, when
an...
Survey of Adult Skills
in brief
1111
in literacy, numeracy and problem
solving in technology-rich
environments.
166 thousa...
100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100
Poland
Ireland
Slovak Republic
Estonia
Korea
United States
Austria
Czech Republic
Averag...
Average is over
Evolution of employment in occupational groups
defined by problem-solving skills
13
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
The level and distribution of skills
differs markedly across countries
Much of the variation in ski...
240 250 260 270 280 290 300
Spain
Italy
United States
France
Ireland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Poland
England/N. Ireland (UK)
...
240 250 260 270 280 290 300
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany...
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany...
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Italy
Spain
France
Ireland
Poland
Northern Ireland (UK)
Cyprus**
Austria
United States
Germany...
Adult with low skills
Australia
Czech Republic
Finland
Germany
United States
Low numeracy Low literacy and numeracy Low li...
Less mobility in more unequal countries
Australia
Austria
Flanders (Belgium) Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia Finland...
Numeracy skills level and inequality
Less inequality
in more proficient countries
Australia
Austria
Flanders (Belgium)
Canada
Czech Republic DenmarkEstonia
Fin...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Successful integration is not simply a matter of time.
In some countries, the time elapsed since im...
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born
Literacy proficiency
by immigration background
Score
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years
172
Literacy proficiency
by immigration background
Score
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years Foreign-born - 5 years and more
172
Literacy proficiency
...
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born and native…
Literacy proficiency
by immigration background and language
Score
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
Native-born and native language
Foreign-born and foreign language
Literacy proficiency
by immi...
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Age at arrival <=6 Age at arrival >6
Differences in literacy proficiency
between migrants...
Differences in employment rates
between migrants and natives,
by duration of stay
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Recent (le...
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Native-born
Foreign-born with foreign education
Foreign-born with host-country educatio...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Some countries have made
significant progress in
improving skills proficiency
32
240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300
Score
Literacy skills in younger
and older generations
Average16-24yea...
Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy
12.6 million
16-24 year-
olds scoring
at Level 4/5
Estonia, 0.2%
Flanders
(Belgium)
, 1%
I...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Formal education is the key
to building foundation skills
… but more education does not
automatical...
Mean literacy proficiency and distribution
of literacy scores, by educational
attainment
100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 3...
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
Literacy skills and age
37
Age
Score
Literacy
unadjusted
...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Putting skills to effective use
Skills will only translate into better
economic and social outcomes...
Use of skills at work
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Reading at
work
Writing at
work
Numeracy at
work
ICT at work Problem
solving a...
Labour productivity
and the use of reading skills at work
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Equal skills
don’t always imply
equal opportunities
41
Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem-
solving skills at work
42
Australia
Austria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
E...
SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS
Skills are
everybody’s business
43
Lessons
from strong
performers
High quality initial
education and
lifelong learning
• Investing in high quality
early chil...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Make learning
everybody’s
business
• Governments, employers,
workers and parents
need effec...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Effective links
between learning
and work
• Emphasis on workbased
learning allows people to...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Allow workers to
adapt learning to
their lives
• Flexibility in content
and delivery (part-...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Improve
transparency
• Easy-to-find
information about
adult education
activities
• Combinat...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Guidance
• Timely data about
demand for and supply
of skills
• Competent personnel
who have...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Help employers
make better use of
workers skills
• Flexible work
arrangements that
accommod...
Lessons
from strong
performers
Help economies
move up the value
chain
• Governments can
influence both employer
competitiv...
Find Out More at:
http://skills.oecd.org/skillsoutlook.htm
All national and international publications
The complete micro-...
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Skilled for Life - Presentation by Andreas Schleicher at the PIAAC International Conference held in Haarlem, the Netherlands 22 November 2015.

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The purpose of the second PIAAC International Conference 2015 is to present work using data from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) relating to issues such as: the deployment of skills in the economy, returns to education and skills or the influence of workplace training.

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Skilled for Life - Presentation by Andreas Schleicher at the PIAAC International Conference held in Haarlem, the Netherlands 22 November 2015.

  1. 1. 00 2nd PIAAC Conference Skilled for Life? Andreas Schleicher 22 November 2015
  2. 2. Increased likelihood of positive outcomes among adults with higher literacy skills 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Being Employed High wages Good to excellent health Participation in volunteer activities High levels of political efficacy High levels of trust 1 (scoring at Level 4/5 compared with those scoring at Level 1 or below) Odds ratio
  3. 3. The kind of things that are easy to teach are now easy to automate, digitize or outsource
  4. 4. Changes in the demand for skills Trends in different tasks in occupations (United States) 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 2009 Routine manual Nonroutine manual Routine cognitive Nonroutine analytic Nonroutine interpersonal Mean task input in percentiles of 1960 task distribution Source: Autor, David H. and Brendan M. Price. 2013. "The Changing Task Composition of the US Labor Market: An Update of Autor, Levy, and Murnane (2003)." MIT Mimeograph, June.
  5. 5. Robotics
  6. 6. >1m km, one minor accident, occasional human intervention
  7. 7. Augmented Reality
  8. 8. Bifurcated productivity growth. 7 Labour productivity growth (2001 = 100) Manufacturing Services Source: OECD, The Future of Productivity, forthcoming
  9. 9. A lot more to come • 3D printing • Synthetic biology • Brain enhancements • Nanomaterials • Etc.
  10. 10. The Race between Technology and Education Inspired by “Theracebetween technology and education” Pr. Goldin & Katz (Harvard) Industrial revolution Digital revolution Social pain Universal public schooling Technology Education Prosperity Social pain Prosperity
  11. 11. Better skills, better jobs, better lives Better jobs and better lives How can economies best use their skills How, when and where do we learn the right mix of skills What knowledge and skills drive better outcomes 10
  12. 12. Survey of Adult Skills in brief 1111 in literacy, numeracy and problem solving in technology-rich environments. 166 thousand adults… Representing 724 million 16-65 year- olds in 24 countries/economies … took an internationally agreed assessment… Also surveyed were generic skills such as collaborating with others and organising one’s time, and how adults use their skills
  13. 13. 100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Poland Ireland Slovak Republic Estonia Korea United States Austria Czech Republic Average Flanders (Belgium) Japan England/N. Ireland (UK) Germany Canada Australia Denmark Norway Netherlands Finland Sweden Basic digital problem-solving skills Advanced digital problem- solving skills Young adults (16-24 year-olds) All adults (16-65 year-olds) Digital problem solving skills of adults % 12 PIAAC/OECD
  14. 14. Average is over Evolution of employment in occupational groups defined by problem-solving skills 13 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 % Medium-low problem- solving skills Low problem-solving skills High level problem-solving skills
  15. 15. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS The level and distribution of skills differs markedly across countries Much of the variation in skills proficiency is observed within countries, so most countries have significant shares of struggling adults 14
  16. 16. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 Spain Italy United States France Ireland Northern Ireland (UK) Poland England/N. Ireland (UK) England (UK) Korea Cyprus** Canada Australia Average Russian Federation³ Germany Estonia Austria Czech Republic Slovak Republic Denmark Norway Sweden Netherlands Flanders (Belgium) Finland Japan 25th Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th 95th 5th Score Skills of adults Numeracy 7 points are roughly equal to one year of education **Footnote by Turkey: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Turkey recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Turkey shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”. Footnote by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United nations with the exception of Turkey. The information in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.
  17. 17. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 Italy Spain France Ireland Poland Northern Ireland (UK) Cyprus** Austria United States Germany Denmark England/N. Ireland (UK) Korea England (UK) Average Canada Slovak Republic Czech Republic Russian Federation³ Flanders (Belgium) Estonia Norway Sweden Australia Netherlands Finland Japan 25th Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th 95th 5th Score Skills of adults Literacy 7 points are roughly equal to one year of education
  18. 18. 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Italy Spain France Ireland Poland Northern Ireland (UK) Cyprus** Austria United States Germany Denmark England/N. Ireland (UK) Korea England (UK) Average Canada Slovak Republic Czech Republic Russian Federation³ Flanders (Belgium) Estonia Norway Sweden Australia Netherlands Finland Japan 25th Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th 95th 5th Score Skills of adults Literacy
  19. 19. 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Italy Spain France Ireland Poland Northern Ireland (UK) Cyprus** Austria United States Germany Denmark England/N. Ireland (UK) Korea England (UK) Average Canada Slovak Republic Czech Republic Russian Federation³ Flanders (Belgium) Estonia Norway Sweden Australia Netherlands Finland Japan 25th Mean and .95 confidence interval for mean 75th 95th 5th Score Skills of adults Literacy
  20. 20. Adult with low skills Australia Czech Republic Finland Germany United States Low numeracy Low literacy and numeracy Low literacy England, 10 million people with low skills
  21. 21. Less mobility in more unequal countries Australia Austria Flanders (Belgium) Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Norway Poland Slovak Republic Spain Sweden England/N. Ireland (UK) United States 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 Parentaleducationgradient 90-10 percentiledifference Correlation betweenskill inequality and parental education gradient Correlation = 0.57
  22. 22. Numeracy skills level and inequality
  23. 23. Less inequality in more proficient countries Australia Austria Flanders (Belgium) Canada Czech Republic DenmarkEstonia Finland France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Norway Poland Slovak Republic Spain Sweden England/N. Ireland (UK) United States OECD average 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 AverageNumeracyProficiency 90-10 percentiledifference Correlation betweenlevel and dispersion of Numeracy proficiency Correlation = -0.45
  24. 24. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Successful integration is not simply a matter of time. In some countries, the time elapsed since immigrants arrived appears to make little difference to their proficiency in literacy and numeracy, suggesting either that the incentives to learn the language of the receiving country are not strong or that policies that encourage learning the language of the receiving country are of limited effectiveness Leveraging the skills of immigrants 23
  25. 25. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Native-born Literacy proficiency by immigration background Score
  26. 26. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years 172 Literacy proficiency by immigration background Score
  27. 27. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Native-born Foreign-born - < 5 years Foreign-born - 5 years and more 172 Literacy proficiency by immigration background Score
  28. 28. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Native-born and native… Literacy proficiency by immigration background and language Score
  29. 29. 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 Native-born and native language Foreign-born and foreign language Literacy proficiency by immigration background and language Score
  30. 30. -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Age at arrival <=6 Age at arrival >6 Differences in literacy proficiency between migrants and natives, by age at arrival Score difference
  31. 31. Differences in employment rates between migrants and natives, by duration of stay -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Recent (less than 5 years) Score difference
  32. 32. 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 Native-born Foreign-born with foreign education Foreign-born with host-country education Percent increase in wages The returns to literacy proficiency, by place of birth and place of acquisition of highest qualification
  33. 33. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Some countries have made significant progress in improving skills proficiency 32
  34. 34. 240 245 250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300 Score Literacy skills in younger and older generations Average16-24year-olds KOREA Germany Norway Average55-65year-olds Spain Finland Netherlands US UK
  35. 35. Adults at Level 4/5 in literacy 12.6 million 16-24 year- olds scoring at Level 4/5 Estonia, 0.2% Flanders (Belgium) , 1% Ireland,0.2% Korea,1% 7.9 million 55-65 year- olds scoring at Level 4/5 Denmark, 0.5% Those entering the job market Those nearing retirement
  36. 36. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Formal education is the key to building foundation skills … but more education does not automatically translate into better skills 35
  37. 37. Mean literacy proficiency and distribution of literacy scores, by educational attainment 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary Italy Score 25th percentile Mean 75th percentile Lower than upper secondary Upper secondary Tertiary 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 Japan Score 36 Qualifications don’t always equal skills
  38. 38. 240 250 260 270 280 290 300 310 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Literacy skills and age 37 Age Score Literacy unadjusted Numeracy unadjusted Numeracy adjusted Literacy adjusted
  39. 39. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Putting skills to effective use Skills will only translate into better economic and social outcomes if they are used effectively 38
  40. 40. Use of skills at work 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 Reading at work Writing at work Numeracy at work ICT at work Problem solving at work Average United States Japan Most frequent use = 4 Least frequent use = 0 Indexofuse
  41. 41. Labour productivity and the use of reading skills at work Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Norway Poland Slovak Republic Spain Sweden United States England/N. Ireland (UK) 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 (log)Labourproductivity Use of reading skills at work 40
  42. 42. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Equal skills don’t always imply equal opportunities 41
  43. 43. Gender gap in wages and in the use of problem- solving skills at work 42 Australia Austria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland Germany Ireland Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Norway Poland Slovak Republic Spain Sweden United States Flanders (Belgium) England/N. Ireland (UK)Cyprus1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percentagedifferencebetweenmen’sand women’swages(menminuswomen) Percentage difference in the use of problem-solving skills at work (men minus women) After accounting for occupations, industry and proficiency
  44. 44. SURVEY OF ADULT SKILLS Skills are everybody’s business 43
  45. 45. Lessons from strong performers High quality initial education and lifelong learning • Investing in high quality early childhood education and initial schooling, particularly for children from disadvantaged backgrounds • Financial support targeted at disadvantage • Opportunities and incentives to continued development of proficiency, both outside work and at the workplace.
  46. 46. Lessons from strong performers Make learning everybody’s business • Governments, employers, workers and parents need effective and equitable arrangements as to who does and pays for what, when and how • Recognise that individuals with poor skills are unlikely to engage in education on their own and tend to receive less employer- sponsored training .
  47. 47. Lessons from strong performers Effective links between learning and work • Emphasis on workbased learning allows people to develop hard skills on modern equipment and soft skills through real- world experience • Employer engagement in education and training with assistance to SMEs • Strengthen relevance of learning, both for workplace and workers broader employability .
  48. 48. Lessons from strong performers Allow workers to adapt learning to their lives • Flexibility in content and delivery (part- time, flexible hours, convenient location) • Distance learning and open education resources .
  49. 49. Lessons from strong performers Improve transparency • Easy-to-find information about adult education activities • Combination of easily searchable, up-to-date online information and personal guidance and counselling services • Less educated workers tend to be less aware of the opportunities • Recognise and certify skills proficiency .
  50. 50. Lessons from strong performers Guidance • Timely data about demand for and supply of skills • Competent personnel who have the latest labour-market information at their fingertips to steer learners • Qualifications that are coherent and easy to interpret .
  51. 51. Lessons from strong performers Help employers make better use of workers skills • Flexible work arrangements that accommodate workers with care obligations and disabilities • Encourage older workers to remain in the labour market • Encourage employers to hire those who temporarily withdrew from the labour market .
  52. 52. Lessons from strong performers Help economies move up the value chain • Governments can influence both employer competitiveness strategies and product- market strategies, which determine in what markets the company competes • Strengthen 21st century skills • Foster entrepreneurship.
  53. 53. Find Out More at: http://skills.oecd.org/skillsoutlook.htm All national and international publications The complete micro-level database Without data, you are just another person with an opinion …and remember: Email Andreas.Schleicher@OECD.org Twitter @SchleicherEDU 52

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