China's future
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This document discusses China's future challenges and opportunities. It notes that China is no longer the communist state envisioned by Mao and experts debate whether China will pursue peaceful evolution or become more aggressive. Key issues China faces include a declining and aging population as a result of the one-child policy, rising inequality, managing economic transition to higher wages, and dependence on continued growth. Questions remain over whether China can balance prosperity with limiting political freedoms and whether the country will pursue energy needs peacefully or aggressively.
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Factors Influencing Development
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- 50 years ago, Japan was the only Asian country seen as achieving modernity, though questions remain if it was truly a "miracle" that could be reproduced.
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- Child mortality is falling globally but not fast enough to meet targets, and the number of child deaths has actually increased in Sub-Saharan Africa. Maternal mortality also remains unacceptably high.
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The 20th century was characterised by consolidation of power, executed in a centrally controlled - top down - way. Finance, industry, media and politics were controlled by large centrally planned organisations such as the Federal Reserve Bank, Murdoch’s News Corporation, General Electric (to name but a few). Whilst centralisation had some benefits in the 20th Century, individual human aspirations and innovations were constrained by this model.
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Now the decentralised platform behind Bitcoin is beginning to change how we think about money. In turn, this is leading to other decentralised peer to peer platforms that are fuelling yet more digital innovation, much like the early stages of the internet itself. These new platforms will enable people to interact, trade, collaborate, and create whole new economies that are fairer, safer, more private and more inclusive than anything we have now.
As designers, developers and innovators, we must prepare for and embrace the potential of this opportunity. The internet is being reinvented, and it could be the platform for a better world.
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1) The document discusses Nepal's socioeconomic development and identifies poor governance as a key reason for its lagging growth compared to other countries.
2) It analyzes critical junctures in Nepal's history where better leadership could have accelerated development, such as during the Rana rule and periods of absolute monarchy, but opportunities were missed.
3) The author argues that for prosperity, a country needs strong political and economic institutions that encourage broad participation in politics and the economy, and allow for "creative destruction" through new policies, sectors, technologies and rules to fuel growth.
Deng xiaopeng
Deng Xiaopeng implemented economic reforms in China known as the Four Modernizations to modernize agriculture, industry, national defense, and science and technology. He reversed Mao's policies by eliminating communes and extending market reforms to industry. These economic policy changes resulted in significantly increased household incomes and profits from foreign trade and investment between 1978 and 1999. However, democratic student protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 were violently suppressed after Deng upheld the Communist Party's authority. Jiang Zemin later succeeded Deng as president and upheld his foreign policies while attempting to improve relations with the United States.
Migration And Push Pull Factors
- The document discusses migration push and pull factors, with push factors being reasons people leave an area like lack of services or poverty, and pull factors being reasons people move to a new area like higher employment or better services.
- It also addresses population growth issues in LEDCs, noting high birth rates balanced by high death rates in Stage 2 of the demographic transition model. Urbanization is increasing in LEDCs due to migration, high birth rates, and declining death rates.
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Reinventing the Internet: Decentralisation and the Age of Empowerment
Reinventing the Internet: Decentralisation and the Age of Empowerment
Role of politics and governance in socioeconomic development
Role of politics and governance in socioeconomic development
Similar to China's future
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The document analyzes the changing population demographics of China and their impact on China's future economy and society. It compares China's population growth and economic development since 1964 to other countries like Japan and Sweden. The author examines fertility rates, mortality rates, and age structures in China over time. The aging population in China is likely to reduce the availability of cheap labor and impact China's economic growth going forward unless policies change. The analysis could help China and other nations manage human development policies and support their economies as populations age.
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The document discusses debates around the "China model" of development and its sustainability and replicability. It outlines the key aspects of the China model including market authoritarianism and the major role of state enterprises. It also discusses concerns around income inequality, environmental issues, and the need for political and economic reforms to transition China's economy and avoid future crises. Overall, the document examines both sides of the debate around the China model and whether it can continue to deliver growth or will face instability without reforms.
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The document discusses human population dynamics and provides the following key points:
- The current global population is approximately 6.6 billion and is projected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050, with much of this growth occurring in India and China.
- There are differing positions on population issues, ranging from concerns about overpopulation and environmental degradation to beliefs that human ingenuity can overcome resource constraints.
- Factors influencing population growth include birth rates, death rates, resource availability, economic conditions, women's education and employment, and government policies. Countries like India and China face unique challenges in managing their large populations.
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The document discusses human population dynamics and provides the following key points:
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Did you know? Total global wealth just hit a new record. US and Europe are the main drivers, but also emerging markets like Asia Pacific and China. In China and India, millions have risen out of poverty to join the working middle class.
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At the same time, there are still far too many, who are living with far too little. According to the World Bank and Pew Research Centre, 2 billion people live on less than $3 a day and 71% of the world's population remain low income or poor (living on $10 or less per day).
Is this the kind of society we want - where a few have a lot and many have a little. Extreme unequal societies break with the democratic ideal and they are neither stable nor sustainable in the long run.
Tobias.Yasutake.Thesis.Text
The document discusses the relationship between the US and China and challenges facing their bilateral relationship. It notes that while economic cooperation ties the countries, differences in political systems, values and cultures have caused misperceptions and lack of trust. Both countries see each other as potential threats. China faces economic challenges like slowing growth, pollution and an aging workforce, as well as internal security issues. Analysts fear a conflict between the rising power of China and declining US, though history shows peaceful transitions are possible between similar countries.
Demographics - They are a changin' - War Room Slides
This document summarizes a discussion on changing demographics and scenarios for the future. It begins with an overview of current population age demographics in various countries like the US, India, Brazil, and China. It then discusses projections that show the US population aging rapidly but maintaining a broad base. Two scenarios are presented: 1) aging baby boomers withdrawing assets could lead to GDP stagnation like in Japan; or 2) "brain drain" beneficiaries could see GDP growth above 3% through merit-based immigration reform and educated immigrants. The document concludes with an update on the HiddenLevers product.
Population explosion
Population explosion is the phenomenon of the size of a population tending to a very large number in a finite interval of time is called population explosion i.e., rapid increase in population for a long time may be termed as "population explosion".
Birth rate is much higher than the death rate for long time may lead to population explosion.
The literal meaning of population is "the whole number of people or inhabitants in a country or region".
The main factors affecting the population change are the birth rate, death rate and migration.
Migration is the number of people moving in (immigration) or out (emigration) of a country, place or locality.
The population change is calculated by the formula:
Population change = (Births + Immigration) - (Deaths + Emigration)
Population explosion or overpopulation refers to a condition where an organism's numbers exceed the carrying capacity of its habitat.
Every sixth person on globe today is every Indian.
India adds about 10 lakh persons to its population every fortnight.
India adds one Australia every eight months.
By 2045 or earlier, India would overtake china as the world's most populous country.
49% of the increase in India's population is from four states Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, UP.
(1) china's demographics and policies
- Since 1949, China's population policies have aimed to control rapid population growth through various programs, most notably the One-Child Policy introduced in 1979.
- The policy set limits on family size and was enforced through fines and incentives, with the goals of slowing population growth and improving economic development.
- While controversial due to human rights issues, the policy is widely seen as effective in substantially lowering China's birth rate from over 6 children per woman to 1.5 currently. However, China still has the world's largest population due to its huge size.
- In the future, China's population is projected to peak at 1.46 billion by 2030 and decline to 1.4 billion by 2050, reflecting
The Future of India's Economy
- India is poised to become one of the key engines of global growth over the next decade as it steadily converts itself due to strong demographics.
- In demographic terms, India has a growing population of both young and prime working age individuals that will exceed China's between 2025-2035. India will enjoy a long demographic dividend as China's population ages and declines.
- While China currently dominates headlines, India has a more balanced demographic transition driven by domestic consumption rather than exports. India's youth population will fuel economic growth over the coming years.
What's that coming over the hill?
On the future of work, careers, business and society based on the Great Reset resulting from the global pandemic. Get ready. How to prepare for a profound inflexion point in humanity's progress.
Presentation1
Falling birth rates around the world pose a threat to human welfare and economic stability. Rapidly declining populations will slow economic growth, strain government finances, and make it difficult to support aging populations as the ratio of working people to retired people falls dramatically. Many developed nations now have fertility rates below 2.1 children per woman, the level needed to replace the population. While some developing nations still have high birth rates, these are starting to fall as well. The long term consequences of sustained low fertility could include population decline and even human extinction if trends continue.
Demography and the Market
This document discusses trends in global demography, including aging populations, migration, and rising obesity rates. It notes that populations are aging worldwide, with the number of older persons growing rapidly and expected to outnumber children by 2050. It also discusses challenges of aging populations like fewer working-age adults supporting more retirees. The document also summarizes trends in global migration like more people migrating from less to more developed countries and rising urbanization. Additionally, it outlines the dramatic worldwide rise in obesity over the last decade. The document suggests these global demographic shifts around aging, migration, and obesity will impact economies, societies and multinational companies in the coming decades.
China after Mao
The document summarizes key events and policies in China after Mao Zedong's death in 1976. It discusses how moderates like Zhou Enlai gained control of the government and pursued diplomatic relations with the United States. Deng Xiaoping later came to power and implemented economic reforms known as the Four Modernizations to modernize agriculture, industry, science/technology, and national defense. This opened China's economy but maintained a one-party communist system, as shown by the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.
What Is Demography? Introduction to Demography
What Is Demography?
Demography is the scientific study of human populations.
The term itself was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Éléments de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée.
The word he invented is a combination of two Greek words: demos, which means people, and graphein, which means to write about a particular subject (in this instance, population).
Modern demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of population change and is concerned with virtually everything that influences or can be influenced by these following factors.
The Future of China
This document discusses how success is viewed in China and how that is changing across generations. Traditionally, success was seen as being determined by factors like family background, money and connections ("guanxi"). However, the study found that while hard work was still the top factor for success, money, family background and connections were also highly important. Younger generations, especially those in tier 1 cities, place less emphasis on these traditional factors and more on personal achievements like education, intelligence, mindset and integrity. So the view of success in China is evolving from being based on who you are to also incorporating what you achieve through your own efforts.
Poverty inequality and debt
The document discusses poverty globally and strategies to address it. It notes that almost half the world lives on less than $2.50 a day, and poverty disproportionately impacts rural areas and children. It then compares global spending on issues like education, health and nutrition to show how little is spent addressing poverty's root causes. Several factors that drive and perpetuate poverty are described, including debt, inequality, lack of social mobility, and corruption. The document outlines some organizations and approaches working to reduce poverty, such as achieving the UN's Millennium Development Goals and providing microfinance opportunities. It raises questions about the most effective strategies and whether poverty, inequality or debt should be prioritized.
Freedom Economics
1. The document discusses the current state of the US economy and leadership role in the world. It notes that the US share of global GDP is declining and other nations are growing faster than the US.
2. It argues politicians and media focus on minor issues rather than strategies for economic growth, market share gains, and maintaining US leadership. Reporting should emphasize growth, competition, and corrective actions.
3. The solution proposed is to empower businesses, enact tax reform, limit the size of government, increase immigration based on business needs, fund the military, and provide limited social services while transforming other programs to investment funds. This would allow individuals freedom and economic independence.
Ready for Prime Time: Older Adults Make Their Mark at MoMA - Francesca Rosenb...
The document discusses the growing population of older adults worldwide and in the United States. It aims to dispel common myths about older adults. Some key points:
- The global population of those over age 60 will reach over 1 billion within the next decade and double to over 2 billion by 2050.
- By 2050, those over age 65 will outnumber children globally for the first time in history.
- Contrary to myths, most older adults are in good health, financially secure, and a growing consumer market. Only a small percentage live in nursing homes and nearly half rate their health as excellent or very good. Those over 50 will control 70% of disposable income by 2017.
Decon 05
1) The document discusses six major issues related to population growth and quality of life in developing countries, including whether rapid population growth will allow countries to improve living standards and expand education and healthcare.
2) It explains concepts like demographic transition, population growth rates, and drivers of population change over time. The global population has grown from 1 billion in the 1800s to over 7 billion currently.
3) Population growth is influenced by factors like birth rates, death rates, age structure, fertility rates, and income levels. Countries generally move from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates as they develop.
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Demographics - They are a changin' - War Room Slides
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More from Frank Brande
One World Government
The document discusses the idea of establishing a one world government through strengthening the United Nations. It provides perspectives from Walter Cronkite who stated that a world government with a legislature, executive, and judiciary is needed to avoid catastrophic world conflict and enforce international laws. Cronkite argues that democracy and civilization are at stake, and that Americans will need courage and faith to yield some national sovereignty to a new, democratic U.N. federated system. The document asks what rights a sovereign nation would retain and give up in such a system and suggests areas like national trade policies, internal security, and taxes could be retained, while security, military, compliance with laws, and agreements may be given to the new world body.
Myanmar's governance
Adapted (Shortened) from a Presentation by Wunna Tun, Governance Thematic Coordinator at ActionAid Myanmar
www.socialchangemaker.blogspot.com
What governments should do
The document outlines the key roles and responsibilities of the US government as established in the Preamble to the Constitution, including establishing justice and ensuring domestic tranquility, providing for the common defense, promoting the general welfare, and securing the blessings of liberty. It also suggests creating lists of essential and non-essential functions for the government of Myanmar.
The rise and fall of civilizations
Climate change and lack of adaptation to environmental changes were major factors in the collapse of past civilizations according to experts. Droughts contributed to the fall of the Egyptian kingdom 4,200 years ago as well as the Maya around 900 AD and the Cambodian city of Angkor in the early 1400s. An archaeologist from Harvard University believes the real reason for societal collapses is their inflexibility in adapting to shifting climates rather than other theories.
The rise and fall of civilizations
The document discusses factors that influenced the collapse of past civilizations such as the Harappan civilization. It notes that climate change, in the form of extended droughts, contributed to the fall of ancient Egyptian and Maya kingdoms as well as the Angkor city in Cambodia. The document quotes an archaeologist who states that past civilizations failed to adapt to a changing climate, which was the real reason for their collapse.
Natural Hazards and Disasters
The document discusses natural hazards and disasters around the world. It identifies common natural hazards such as floods, windstorms, earthquakes, tsunamis, droughts and volcanic eruptions. Specific hazards are also discussed for regions like Asia, the Pacific Ring of Fire, China, India and Japan. Models are presented for how natural disasters occur when hazards overwhelm a community's capabilities, and how risk from hazards is determined by vulnerability and capacity to cope. Key terms like hazard, vulnerability and risk are defined.
The effects of colonialism
The document discusses the reasons and effects of European colonialism around the world from the 15th century onward. It outlines some of the key motivations for colonialism, including nationalism, developing industrial economies, securing natural resources, and beliefs of social Darwinism and missionary work. Students will be assigned to research and present on a specific colonized country, addressing factors like why and when it was colonized, effects on indigenous peoples, and benefits/drawbacks for both colonizers and colonized groups. Presentations will be 5 minutes with a one page summary and citations.
Islam after mohammed
The four Rightly Guided Caliphs succeeded Muhammad as leaders of the Muslim community after his death - Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman, and Ali. However, disagreements over succession led to a split between Sunnis and Shias. Meanwhile, the Islamic empire expanded rapidly under the Umayyad dynasty, conquering lands from Persia to North Africa and establishing cities like Baghdad and Cordoba that became centers of trade, culture, and learning. Factors like military victories, treaties, merchant activity, and the introduction of new crops and technologies contributed to the spread of Islam across Afro-Eurasia.
Threeworldreligions
The three largest monotheistic religions - Judaism, Christianity, and Islam - originated from belief in one God and descended from Abraham. Judaism was the first, originating with the Israelites around 3,700 years ago. Christianity arose from Judaism with Jesus' teachings in Judea. Islam began in the 7th century CE with the prophet Muhammad preaching submission to Allah in Mecca and Medina. All three religions are examples of monotheism and share a common ancestor in Abraham, but have key differences in their founders, holy texts, and beliefs.
The roman empire_and_han_china
The Han dynasty of China and the Roman Empire both lasted approximately 400 years and had populations of around 50 million. Both built extensive road networks and developed complex bureaucracies to govern their large territories. However, the Roman Empire continually expanded militarily while the Han dynasty focused more on internal development and stopped expanding territorially once it reached a large size. Corruption and economic difficulties ultimately contributed to the collapse of both imperial systems.
Rise and Fall of the Roman Republic
The document summarizes the rise and fall of the Roman Republic from 800 BCE to 44 BCE. It describes the geography of early Rome, the Etruscan influence, and Roman conquest of Italy. It then discusses the class struggles between patricians and plebeians, the development of Roman political institutions and social structures like the client-patron system. It outlines Roman expansion through wars with Carthage and Macedon and the consequences of expansion. Finally, it details the splintering of the aristocracy, the rise of figures like Marius and Caesar, and the assassination of Caesar that marked the end of the Republic.
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China's future
- 2. The End of the Original Chinese Dream China is no longer the state as Mao intended.
- 3. Future? • Peaceful rise . . . gentle giant act • —Tom Friedman • Slow motion revolution • —Ian Johnson • Rogue economic superpower—Paul Krugman
- 5. What can go right? • Economy & employment • Exports & Consumerism in China • Standard of living improves • Social harmony • International respect
- 6. Hard Work Ahead! High growth? low cost labor =small middle class Slow growth? higher labor costs=larger middle
- 7. More to do! China must find new sources of growth. Chinese leaders are trying to deflate a real estate bubble.
- 8. What can go wrong?
- 9. Population • Expansion—1.5 billion people by 2030 • Approaching zero population growth – Due in part to 1979 population control 1-child policy • Aging population with life expectancy assumed to lengthen by 2030
- 10. Consequence • 2030 China’s median age will be over 41, higher than Europe or the U.S. • In this future China, there would be more than three senior citizens for each young child.
- 14. China’s Future Demographic outlook? Rising nationalism? Aggressiveness? Or Peaceful evolution? mature international responsibility?
- 15. Threats • Increasing wages for blue collar workers. • Slow economic growth. • Managing the transition from a lower income to a higher income society. • World Bank report 2012
- 16. Social Inequality "When China's leader Deng Xiaoping said, 'To get rich is glorious,' (Did) he imagine that the gap between rich and poor in China could have serious political implications." Zeng Xiangquan, a labor economist at People's University.
- 17. The Happiness Factor Despite much lower levels of income, life satisfaction among urban Chinese was almost as high as in the developed world. Richard A. Easterlin
- 18. Questions Can China continue to prosper while limiting freedoms? Will China’s remain content by offering economic freedom? Will China use the free market to satisfy its energy needs? Will China become aggressive and take what energy it needs?