China presents both threats and opportunities for the United States. It has experienced rapid economic growth and a rise in military power, leading the U.S. to view China as both an economic partner and potential regional rival. There are also tensions over human rights issues and territorial disputes in areas like the South China Sea. However, the two countries have become economically interdependent through trade, reducing the risks of military conflict due to concerns over mutually assured economic damage from disrupted trade relations.

1. China:
Threat or Opportunity or
Both

3. China, with Provinces

4. What We Know Already
1949: Communist victory; Nationalist
defeat
PRC vs. ROC
1972: Nixon to China
1979: US-China normalization

5. What is Taiwan?
China: A Province of China
US: A part of a united China, united in
some undefined way and how that
works is up to Taiwan and China as
long as it is done peacefully
Taiwan: Taiwan is a part of China

6. Changes since 1970s
Taiwan democracy
Lee Teng-hui Chen shui-bian Ma Ying-jeou
1988-2000 2000-2008 2008--2016

7. Pres. Tsai Ing-wen 2016

8. Chinese Economic Reform
• Deng Xiaoping

9. The Statistics
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/02/chinese_economic_history/html/1998.stm

10. Shanghai, China

11. The Dilemma
• Economic reform: yes
• Political reform: No
• But…
Economic Calls for
Reform Political reform

12. Tiananmen Square 1989

14. June 4, 1989

16. Bush 41 View
US
USSR PRC

17. Congressional View
Democrats: Human Rights violations at
Tiananmen Square
Republicans: Human Rights Violations –
persecution of Christians
Take away Most Favored Nation status

18. Clinton View
What is China?
1. Worst human rights violator on
the planet
2. Biggest of the BEM
1993: China given a deadline of June
1994 for human rights
improvement

19. •Threat
•Opportunity
•Both

20. China’s Wealth

22. Mark Selden, Nation, Region and the Global in East Asia: Conflict and Cooperation,
The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus, http://japanfocus.org/-Mark-Selden/3422

23. South China Sea
Timeline

25. China’s Nine-Dash Line

26. Competing Claims

27. Oil and Gas

28. Oil Trade

29. Natural Gas Trade

30. Trade Routes

31. Spratly Islands Disputes

32. Mischief Reef
Chinese “Naval Base”
1990s 2010s

33. Philippine Claim to the Second
Thomas Shoal

34. Paracel Island Disputes
and Chinese Oil Rig 2014

35. Air Defense Identification Zones

36. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS) 1982
• 12 mile limit from a nation’s coast: legal jurisdiction for the nation
• 200 miles form a nation’s coast Exclusive economic rights for the
nation
• Dispute resolution mechanism
• Direct talks between the parties.
• If they fail:
• submission of the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law
of the Sea
• adjudication by the International Court of Justice
• submission to binding international arbitration procedures
• submission to special arbitration tribunals with expertise in
specific types of disputes. All of these procedures involve binding
third-party settlement
• Exceptions for cases involving national sovereignty. Parties submit
their dispute to a conciliation commission; results are non-binding.

37. Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

38. Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

39. Dokdo/Takeshima Islands

40. Source: The Economist: www.economist.com/node/17601487

41. From: Annual Report to Congress
Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2009
(http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf. pp 24-5

42. The Future
1. China as a regional rival
2. China as a peer competitor
– A rival with a functioning economy
1. China as an ideological rival
– Liberal-democracy vs. Soft
Authoritarianism
1. Integrating China into the world and
taming it
– Responsible stakeholder
1. China anti-hegemony: “peaceful rise”

43. But…Economic Interdependence
Chinese Trade (2010)
From Chinese Ministry of Commerce 2009-2010,
http://english.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/statistic/ie/200901/2
0090105999698.html
US Trade (2010)
From US Census Bureau data; chart from
http://www.globalization101.org/a-snapshot-of-us-
trade/

44. Mutual Assured Bankruptcy?
Who owns the Debt 2011? Federal Reserve information
1. US Federal Reserve and other Government Financial Entities
2. Other Investors/Savings Bonds
3. China
4. Japan
5. Pension Funds
6. Money Market Funds/Mutual Funds
7. State and Local Governments in US
8. UK
9. Banks
10.Insurance Companies
11.OPEC nations
12.Brazil
13.Caribbean nations
14.Hong Kong
15.Canada