Dave McClure discusses changes in tech startups and venture capital. Key points include: 1) Startup costs have decreased dramatically with cloud computing and online distribution platforms providing cheap access to over 100 million potential customers. 2) The lean startup methodology advocates building minimum viable products faster and cheaper through iterative development and customer feedback. 3) Venture capital investment has shifted towards a "lots of little bets" strategy of making many small, early-stage investments and doubling down on the top performers.

1. Changes in Tech Startups
& Venture Capital
@DaveMcClure
#GOAP Istanbul
Nov 2013

2. This Talk…
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Industry Changes: Daft Punk Lean Startup
Myth Busting + Deconstructing: The Series A Crunch
500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets
Venture Metrics: The Lean VC
Scalable Distribution: Platforms & Community
Startup Geography: Local vs. Global

3. Dave McClure
Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups
00‟s & 10‟s:
• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O‟Reilly
80‟s & 90‟s:
• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq‟d by Servinet/Panurgy)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins„88, BS Eng / Applied Math

4. 500 Startups
Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
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What is 500?
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$75M under management
30+ people / 10 investing partners
Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia
1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors
25+ positive exits in ~3 years
500+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries
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Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M)
Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M)
Twilio
SendGrid
Credit Karma
VivaReal
Udemy
Zozi
The RealReal
Virool
Visually
Gengo
PicCollage
9GAG
ParlakBirGelecek

5. 500 Startups: Global Seed Fund
Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries

6. Startup Investor Ecosystem
Bootstrap, KickStarter,
Crowdfunding
Y-Combinator
TechStars
Angels &
Incubators
($0-10M)
SV Angel (Conway)
Floodgate (Maples)
“Micro-VC” Funds
($10-100M)
First Round
Union Square
Incubation
SoftTech (Clavier)
Felicis (Senkut)
Series A
True
“Big” VC Funds
($100-500M)
Seed
Foundry
Series B
Atomico
Greylock
“Mega” VC Funds
(>$500M)
A16Z
Sequoia
Series C+

7. Changes in Tech Startups
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LESS Capital required to build product, get to market
– Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth
– Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc
– Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc
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MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users)
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Search (Google)
Social (Facebook, Twitter)
Mobile (Apple, Android)
Local (Yelp, Groupon, FourSquare)
Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr)
Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)
LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits
– Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups
– Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution
– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments

8. Industry Changes
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Startup Efficiency, Reduced Capital Costs
Growing Market, Growing Platforms
VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008)
Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round)
Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator)
Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List)
more info see: http://PreMoney.co

9. Daft Punk Lean Startup:
Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
1. Startup Costs = Lower.
2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.
3. Transaction $$$ = Better.
 Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better
 Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable
Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions
based on Measured User Behavior

10. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
Before 2000
• Sun Servers
• Oracle DB
• Exodus Hosting
• 12-24mo dev cycle
• 6-18mo sales cycle
• <100M people online
• $1-2M seed round
• $3-5M Series A
• Sand Hill Road crawl
• Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup
After 2008
• AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW
• Cloud + Open Source SW
• Lean Startup / Startup Wknd
• 3-90d dev cycle
• SaaS / online sales
• >3B people online
• <$100K incub + <$1M seed
• $1-3M Series A
• Angel List global visibility
• Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup

11. Series A Crunch: Good or Bad?
Series A rqmts: $1M revenue, 1M active users,
10M downloads, 100% YoY growth
• Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail”
• BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+
• Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small
acquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K)
• Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from
• Overall, founders / market getting smarter
• More focus on customers, problems, revenue
• Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).

12. Silicon Valley 2.0:
Lots of Little Bets
aka “MoneyBall for Startups”
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VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012)
MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)

13. 500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”*
1) Make lots of little
bets pre-traction,
early-stage startups
Quantitative Investing before Traction
250+ companies @ $25-100K
(1st check)
- Assume high failure rate (up to 80%)
2) after 6-12 months, identify
top 20% performers and
double-down higher $$$
Double-Down after
Traction
50+ ‘winners’ @ $100K-$1M
(2nd + 3rd check)
- - Target 10+ exits @ $100M+
3) conservative model assumes
- 5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+)
- 10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M)
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*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”

14. The Lean VC:
Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment
Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental
investment, iterative development. Start with many
small experiments, filter out failures, and expand
investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)

15. Investment Stage #1:
Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure
– 1-3 founders
– $25-$100K investment
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors
• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
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Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months
Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”
Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics
Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment

16. Investment Stage #2:
Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure
– 2-10 person team
– $100K-$1M investment
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds
• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:
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Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”
Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost
Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires

17. Investment Stage #3:
Revenue Validation + Growth
• Structure
– 5-25 person team
– $1M-$10M investment
– Seed & Venture Investors
• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:
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Beta->Production, 12-24 months
Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”
Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options

18. Platforms + Distribution
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Mentors: Engineering, Design, Marketing
Distribution: Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Local
Global: LatAm, Asia, India, EU, ME, Africa
Social: LinkedIn, Quora, Angel List
Angel List, Second Market, Trusted Insight
Dashboard.io, MatterMark, Funders Club

19. Platforms 2.0
Search, Social, Mobile, Vide
o, Messaging

20. Distribution Platforms
Customer Reach: 100M-1B+
• Search: Google, Baidu, Yahoo/Bing, Yandex
• Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, TenCent/QQ, WeChat
• Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android
• Media: Video (YouTube), Photos (Instagram, Pinterest), Blogs
• Comm: SMS, IM (WeChat, WhatsApp), Skype, Phone/Voice, etc

21. Going Local, Going
Global
web gets bigger -> world gets smaller

22. Local vs Global?
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Emerging / Developing Markets
Global Languages: English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic
Critical Factors: Education, Mentorship, Capital
Capital Availability: Incubation, Seed, Series A
Positive Macro: Payments, Logistics, Mobile/Web
Penetration, Growing Middle Class, Distribution

23. Global Trends
• Growth of Global Languages (see MyGengo.com)
– 1B+ speakers: Mandarin, English
– 300-500M+ spkrs: Spanish, Arabic
• Smart Device Proliferation
– mobile, tablet, TV, console, auto, home, etc
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More Young, More Old ($$$) Users Online
More Bandwidth, More Video, More Social, More Mobile
Wealthy Chinese + Indian, Web + IRL Globetrotters ($$$B)
Acceleration of Global Payment, E-Commerce, Logistics
Dramatically Reduced Cost: Product Dev, Customer Acqstn
Global Distribution Platforms
– US/EU: AAPL, FB, AMZN, GOOG (Search, YouTube, Gmail, Android), TWTR
– Asia: Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sina, NHN, Yahoo-J, Softbank, Rakuten, DeNA, Gree

24. Questions? Comments?
• Thanks for Listening
• Feedback Appreciated
• More Info?
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http://500.co (our company)
http://500hats.com (my blog)
https://angel.co/500startups (our fund)
Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure