- Cotton production in Pakistan for 2015-16 is estimated at 11.388 million bales, down from the previous year due to heavy rains, floods, and pest infestation. - As of December 1st, cotton arrivals were at 8.632 million bales, 20.55% of the estimated production and down 28.93% from the previous year. - The decrease in cotton arrivals is attributed to lower yields caused by abnormal weather and pest problems during the growing season.

1. 4th Cotton Crop
Assessment Committee (CCAC)
Meeting
December 14, 2015

2. Targets 2015-16
Area
(Mil. ha)
Production
(Mil. bales)
Punjab 2.428 10.500
Sindh 0.650 4.400
KP 0.0005 0.00152
Baluchistan 0.043 0.588
Pakistan 3.1215 15.48952
Source: 4th meeting of the Federal Committee on Cotton (FCC) Feb 19, 2015

3. Province Sector 2014-15 (Qty in MT) 2015-16 (Qty in MT)
Requirement Availability Requirement Availability
Punjab
Public 696.87 843.64
Private 18336 24249
Total 31,000 19033 31,000 25093
%age of TSR 61.39% 81%
Sindh
Public 0.27 118.59
Private 1178 3177.8
Total 8,300 1178.3 8,300 3296.4
%age of TSR 14% 40%
KPK
Public 0 0
Private 34 0
Total 50 34 50 0
%age of TSR 68% 0%
Balochistan
Public 0 0
Private 358 0
Total 620 358 620 0
%age of TSR 57.74% 0%
Pakistan
Public 697.14 962.23
Private 19906 27427
Total 40,000 20603 40,000 28389
%age of TSR 51.50% 71%
SEED AVAILABILITY
Source: Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department, Islamabad

4. Sowing 2015-16
Source: Crop Reporting Service Department of respective provinces
Province Target
2015
Area Sown % age Over
2015-16 2014-15 Target Last Year
Punjab 2.428 2.258 2.322 93.00 - 2.70
Sindh 0.650 0.643 0.596 98.92 + 7.88
KPK 0.0035 0.001 0.00097 28.57 +3.09
Baluchistan 0.050 0.044 0.041 88.00 +7.31
Total 3.1315 2.946 2.960 94.08 - 0.47
(Million Hectares)

5. Cotton Pests Situation
Name of Pest 2015 2014
White Fly 4.38 5.25
Jassid 4.38 4.23
Thrips 0.00 0.00
Mealy Bug 7.06 11.87
Dusky Cotton Bug 0.54 4.33
Mites 0.00 0.00
Army Worm 2.24 1.99
American Boll Worm 0.00 0.00
Pink Boll Worm 7.10 1.12
Spotted Boll Worm 0.00 0.00
Source: Weekly Report (4th week of October), Deptt of PWQC, Government of the Punjab
(Percent Hotspots

6. Emergence of
New Pests
Mealybug
Red Cotton Bug
Dusky Bug

7. Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCuV)
Situation
Percent Incidence Level
2015 2014
10.40 12.06 %
Source: Weekly Report (4th week of October), Deptt of PWQC, Government of the Punjab
TEHSIL % Incidence Level
Pak Pattan, Lodhran 50 ~ 65
Arif Wala, Vehari 40 ~ 49
Bure Wala, Multan, Shujabad 40 ~ 45
Shujabad, Kehror Pakka, 30 ~ 40
Jalal Pur P.W, Kot Adu, Layya 20 ~ 30

8. Source: PWQC Weekly Reports (Incidence Level by 4th week of October)
CLCuV Pattern in the Punjab
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
32.4
16.5
14.3
3.7 1.8
11.7 12.5
40.7 40.2
51.8 51.3
35.4
62.7
55.6
17.9
39.3 39.4
12.06 10.4
IncidenceLevel(%)

9. Current Production Problems
• Abnormalities in Weather
– Heavy Rains / Floods
– Harsh Temperatures
• Seed Quality
• Pests & Disease
• Prices & Marketing

10. Rainfall

11. Rainfall (mm) in Cotton Zone
JUNE JULY AUGUST
2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014
Bahawalnagar 14.1 26.1 154.2 34.3 61 5.1
Bahawalpur city 106.1 0.1 133.6 18.2 86.1 4.1
Bahawalpur a/p 190.1 0.1 104.8 191 89.9 5
Bhakkar 35 10.1 34.7 123 121 79
Chakwal 112.4 34.6 87.4 214.5 133 141.1
D.G.khan 50.9 0.3 110.5 50.3 106.4 17.2
Faisalabad 27.5 3 96.5 50.2 128.7 15.2
Jhang 37.2 65 121.6 47.1 91.9 19
Jhelum 51.6 25.7 181.1 122.6 174.5 161.2
Khanpur 0.8 11 307.9 0.1 2.6 2
Mianwali 0 8.1 38 61.4 340 105
Multan 51.4 0.2 139.3 71.3 80.6 26.1
Okara 32.5 9 118.2 67.3 33.8 15
Rahim Yar Khan 3.5 0 118.2 0.2 0.2 2
Sahiwal 21.2 15.2 163.1 76.1 49 0.2
Sargodha 45.2 39 55.2 116.1 123.7 96
Shorkot 6 1.2 16.2 21.1 159.1 4
Sialkot cantt 42.9 87.4 298.7 262 118 184.6
Sialkot a/p 35.7 47.3 147.4 182.2 111.3 188.4
T.T.Singh 40.9 19 88.2 61.4 114.9 28.2
Source: SUPARCO

12. Comparison of Number of Rainy days in
Core Cotton Areas
Source: Director General, AARI, Faisalabad)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
July August September October
2014 2015
MULTAN
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
July August September October
2014 2015
RAHIM YAR KHAN

13. Comparison of Total Rainfall (mm) in Core
Cotton Areas
Source: Director General, AARI, Faisalabad
Months MULTAN
2014 2015
July 71.3 139.3
August 26.1 80.6
September 3.3 10.3
October 23.0 11.8
Total 123.7 242
Months RAHIM YAR KHAN
2014 2015
July 0.2 118.2
August 2.0 0.2
September 0.1 0.6
October 0.0 0.1
Total 2.3 119.1

14. Rainfall Vs Cotton Production in Punjab Province
11417
6523
7103 6817
11147
7904
9900
7400
115.6
567.8
234
609.8
255.2
412
149
373
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1991-92 1993-94 1996-97 1997-98 2004-05 2010-11 2014-15 2015-16
Production (000 bales) Rain (mm)

15. Decreasing Plant Population
Source: Crop Reporting Service Department, Punjab
Recommended Plant Population (Production Plan 2013 – Punjab)
Early (March) (12 to 15 inch) 14 - 17.5 Thousands
Mid (April) (9 to 12 inch) 17.5 - 23 Thousands
Late (1st to 15 May) (6 to 9 inch) 23 - 35 Thousands
PlantPopulation/acre
16680
15405
14024 14396
13174 13439 13864
12111 12388
16595
13445
14138
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(est)
Average

16. Monthly Ave Cotton Prices 2015-16
Month KCA’s Spot
Prices of Raw
Cotton
Seed Cotton Prices “A” Index
Prices
New Yark Futures
Hyderabad R. Y. Khan
Rs. Per 40 Kg Cents Per Pounds
Aug. 2015 4880 2310 2308 72.00 65.00
Sep. 2015 4991 2365 2416 69.00 62.00
Oct. 2015 5582 2555 3075 68.93 62.54

17. Cotton Balance Sheet: PAKISTAN
Sr.
No.
Position 2013-14 2014-15*
‘000’ Bales ‘000’ M/Tons ‘000’ Bales ‘000’ M/Tons
1. Carryover 1539 260 701 118
2. Production 12,769 2,171 13,996 2,379
3. Imports 1,581 269 987 168
Total 15,889 2,700 15,684 2665
4. Mill Consumption 14,513 2,467 14,727 2504
5. Exports 675 115 559 95
6. End Season Stocks 701 118 398 66
Total 15,889 2,700 15,684 2665
Source:
i) Textile Commissioners Organization,
ii) Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
iii) Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association.
*Provisional **Mill Consumption Aug, 2014-June, 2015.
Note: Exports and Imports July-June, 2015 (2014-15 Crop).

18. Cotton Balance Sheet: WORLD
Source: Cotton This Month (October), ICAC
Heads
2012-13
Est.
2013-14
Est.
2014-15
Proj.
2015-16
Proj.
% Change in
2015/16
over
2014-15
Beginning stock 15.26 17.97 20.29 21.86 7.73
Production 26.70 26.286 26.16 23.92 -8.56
Consumption 23.61 23.63 24.48 25.05 2.33
Exports 9.986 8.998 7.71 7.47 -3.11
Imports 9.60 8.67 7.68 7.47 -1.71
Ending Stock 17.981 20.29 21.86 20.73 -5.17

19. Source: Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association
Province 2015-16 2014-15
Change over last
Year
Punjab 51,03,092 84,98,129 (-) 39.95%
Sindh 35,28,841 36,47,576 (-) 3.28%
Total 86,31,933 1,21,45,705 (-) 28.93%

20. Year Total Arrival Arrival on 1st Dec % arrival on 1st
Dec.
2012 12.915 9.582 25.80
2013 13.391 11.045 17.50
2014 14.871 12.146 18.50
2015 10.864 8.632 20.55
If bale wt is 155kg =9.905 of 170 kg bales
If bale wt is 160 kg=10.20 of 170 kg bales
If bale wt is 165 kg=10.544 of 170 kg bales

21. Production Estimates
2015-16
Source: 3rd CCAC 11.11.2015
Province Production
(million bales)
Punjab 7.4
Sindh 3.4
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.0015
Baluchistan 0.588
PAKISTAN 11.388

22. Thanks

23. 55.29
59.92 61.66
52.60
49.31
52.98
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11
%age of Cotton Arrival in Ginning
Factories (As on Nov. 1st )

24. Cotton Arrival Trend as on 1st Nov.
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11
Bales