1) Cotton production in Pakistan declined significantly in 2015-16 due to heavy rains and floods that damaged crops. 2) Rainfall in key cotton growing provinces of Punjab and Sindh in the summer of 2015 was much higher than normal, reaching over 350mm in some areas of Punjab compared to average of 234mm. 3) The heavy rains affected pollination and allowed pest infestations to spread, compounding problems for farmers who had already suffered crop damage and losses. 4) Cotton production in Pakistan fell to 9.47 million bales in 2015-16, down from 13.56 million bales the previous year, mirroring declines seen in other major cotton producing countries as well.

1. Dr. Khalid Abdullah
Cotton Commissioner, Ministry of Textile Industry /
Vice President, PCCC
February, 2016

2. Targets 2015-16
Province Area
(Mil. ha)
Production
(Mil. bales)
Punjab 2.428 10.500
Sindh 0.650 4.400
KP 0.0005 0.00152
Baluchistan 0.043 0.588
Pakistan 3.1215 15.48952
Source: 4th meeting of the Federal Committee on Cotton (FCC) Feb 19, 2015

3. Province Sector 2014-15 (Qty in MT) 2015-16 (Qty in MT)
Requirement Availability Requirement Availability
Punjab
Public 696.87 843.64
Private 18336 24249
Total 31,000 19033 31,000 25093
%age of TSR 61.39% 81%
Sindh
Public 0.27 118.59
Private 1178 3177.8
Total 8,300 1178.3 8,300 3296.4
%age of TSR 14% 40%
KPK
Public 0 0
Private 34 0
Total 50 34 50 0
%age of TSR 68% 0%
Balochistan
Public 0 0
Private 358 0
Total 620 358 620 0
%age of TSR 57.74% 0%
Pakistan
Public 697.14 962.23
Private 19906 27427
Total 40,000 20603 40,000 28389
%age of TSR 51.50% 71%
SEED AVAILABILITY
Source: Federal Seed Certification & Registration Department, Islamabad

4. Sowing 2015-16
Source: Crop Reporting Service Department of respective provinces
Province Target
2015
Area Sown % age Over
2015-16 2014-15 Target Last Year
Punjab 2.428 2.258 2.322 93.00 - 2.70
Sindh 0.650 0.643 0.596 98.92 + 7.88
KPK 0.0035 0.001 0.00097 28.57 +3.09
Baluchistan 0.050 0.044 0.041 88.00 +7.31
Total 3.1315 2.946 2.960 94.08 - 0.47
(Million Hectares)

5. Current Production Problems
• Abnormalities in Weather
– Heavy Rains / Floods
– Harsh Temperatures
• Seed Quality
• Pests & Disease (especially PBW)
• Prices & Marketing

6. Rain Damages 2015

7. Rainfall (mm) in Punjab Province
Source: SUPARCO, Islamabad
Station June July August Total Rainfall (June-August)
2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012
Bahawalnagar 14.1 26.1 34.1 7.1 154 34.3 57 37 61 5.1 117 35.1 229 65.5 208.2 79.2
Bahawalpur city 106 0.1 56.1 6.2 134 18.2 3.3 4 86.1 4.1 31.7 69.3 326 22.4 91.1 79.5
Bahawalpur a/p 190 0.1 32 2.2 105 191 25.1 5 89.9 5 116 23.1 385 196.1 173.2 30.3
Bhakkar 35 10.1 86.4 26 34.7 123 22.1 78 121 79 44 66 191 212.1 152.5 170
Chakwal 112 34.6 39.2 13.8 87.4 215 193 79.1 133 141 108 158 333 390.2 340.4 251
D.G.khan 50.9 0.3 1.2 20.3 111 50.3 24.2 34.2 106 17.2 152 7.4 268 67.8 177.5 61.9
Faisalabad 27.5 3 75 5.1 96.5 50.2 3.2 88.1 129 15.2 159 19.3 253 68.4 237.4 112.5
Jhang 37.2 65 43.1 14 122 47.1 67 131 91.9 19 55 4 251 131.1 165.1 149
Jhelum 51.6 25.7 67.3 8.1 181 123 296 216 175 161 231 267 407 309.5 594.7 490.8
Khanpur 0.8 11 2 2.1 308 0.1 61 34 2.6 2 1.4 43 311 13.1 64.4 79.1
Lahore a/p 98.4 71.5 145 4.6 297 59.2 222 53.5 195 58.6 513 175 590 189.3 880.1 233.5
Lahore pbo 45.9 50.1 118 13.4 329 42.7 242 39.6 93.8 54.6 354 198 469 147.4 714.3 250.6
Mandi-Bahau-din 60.2 41.6 26.4 20.2 204 178 339 111 66.1 189 139 404 331 408.9 504.7 535.5
Mianwali 0 8.1 63.1 26.3 38 61.4 169 43.3 340 105 150 175 378 174.5 382.4 244.2
Multan 51.4 0.2 47 0 139 71.3 58 52 80.6 26.1 38 12.4 271 97.6 143 64.4
Okara 32.5 9 27.2 2.4 118 67.3 13.1 57 33.8 15 218 48 185 91.3 258.4 107.4
Rahim Yar Khan 3.5 0 0.1 0.1 118 0.2 16.1 20.1 0.2 2 0.5 19.3 122 2.2 16.7 39.5
Gujranwala cantt 62.2 35.2 60.2 19.4 196 122 315 157 63.4 144 468 239 322 301.4 843.5 415.1
Sahiwal 21.2 15.2 59.1 1.3 163 76.1 5.4 98.1 49 0.2 156 135 233 91.5 220.6 234.4
Sargodha 45.2 39 31 12.6 55.2 116 79.3 160 124 96 42.3 13.1 224 251.1 152.6 185.9
Shorkot 6 1.2 54 6.3 16.2 21.1 22 35.2 159 4 7.3 71.1 181 26.3 83.3 112.6
Sialkot cantt 42.9 87.4 17.2 8.5 299 262 314 254 118 185 670 192 460 534 1001.9 454.2
Sialkot a/p 35.7 47.3 69.3 50.3 147 182 284 157 111 188 368 259 294 417.9 721.4 467
T.T.Singh 40.9 19 74.4 5.5 88.2 61.4 8.2 147 115 28.2 23.4 20.2 244 108.6 106 172.7
Average Rainfall (mm) 358 233.2 414.14 249.4
PRODUCTION (000 bales) 7400 9900 8860 9600

8. Rainfall (mm) in Sindh Province
Source: SUPARCO, Islamabad
Station June July August Total Rainfall (June-August)
2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011
Badin 1.3 0 17 0 207 3.4 9.1 0.1 0.2 32.2 70.2 31.1 209 35.6 96.3 31.2 495
Chhor 19 0 49 1 131 0.1 19.1 23 8 10 127 29.1 158 10.1 195.1 53.1 367
Hyderabad 8.2 0 0 0 101 16 1.1 0 0 1 27 1.1 109 17 28.1 1.1 215
Jacobabad 11 0 52.1 0 55.1 0 0.1 3.1 0 4 295 0.1 66.1 4 347.2 3.2 144
Karachi 0 0.2 0.3 1 47.1 1.7 6.6 1 1.9 9.2 107 8.3 49 11.1 113.5 10.3 140
Larkana 6.1 0 6 0 17.7 0 0.1 0 0.1 4 91 0.3 23.9 4 97.1 0.3 125
Mithi 23 0 40 28 389 33 30 10 1 107 20 25 413 140 90 63 878
Shaheed Benazirabad 37.2 0 19 0 69 0 7.2 0 0 11.2 15 14.1 106 11.2 41.2 14.1 497
Padidan 36.6 0 96.1 0 104 0.2 14.1 0 0 0 37.1 0.1 141 0.2 147.3 0.1 367
Rohri 7.2 0 29 0 63.2 0 10 0 0 3.1 85.1 0.1 70.4 3.1 124.1 0.1 97
Sukkur 50 0 28 0 105 0 4 0 0 8 60.1 2 155 8 92.1 2 93
Mohen-jo-Daro 12.5 0 36.1 0 61 0 0.1 0 0 0 66 4 73.5 0 102.2 4 99
Thatta 4.7 0 0 0 93 7 5 0 0 10 104 34 97.7 17 109 34 145
Dadu 55 0 18 7 111 0 12 0 0 0 9 0 166 0 39 7 195
Mirpurkhas 2 0 4 0 80.1 5 24 0 0 9 52 20 82.1 14 80 20 392
Average Rainfall (mm) 128 18.35 113.48 16.23 284
PRODUCTION (000 bales) 3400 3488 3362 3600 2681

9. Rainfall damages 2015

10. Rain Damages
2015
Courtesy: SUPARCO, Islamabad

11. Rain Damages 2015
Courtesy: SUPARCO, Islamabad

12. Comparison of Number of Rainy days in Core
Cotton Areas
Source: Director General, AARI, Faisalabad)
4
3
4
1
12
5
2
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
July August September October
2014 2015
MULTAN
2
1 1
0
10
2
1 1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
July August September October
2014 2015
RAHIM YAR KHAN

13. Rainfall Vs Cotton Production in Punjab
Province
11417
6523
7103 6817
11147
7904
9900
7400
115.6
567.8
234
609.8
255.2
412
149
373
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1991-92 1993-94 1996-97 1997-98 2004-05 2010-11 2014-15 2015-16
Production (000 bales) Rain (mm)

14. Impact of Rains on Cotton Crop
• Continuous rains affected pollination (100mm to 373mm).
• 128 mm for 28 days during 3rd week of July upto 3rd week
of August 2015 as compared to only 13 mm during same
period last year.
• Heavy rains resulted in high humidity which favored flare
up of Whitefly, Jassid and other pests.
• Resulted in limited application of inputs, growth of crop
deteriorated and pest complex established.
• Damages due to rains coupled with prevailing lower cotton
prices & high rates of inputs, farmers lost interest in
spending more on already damaged crop.

15. Has climate change only affected
the Pakistani cotton??

16. Cotton Production in million bales
2014-15 2015-16
India 38.28 36.18
China 38.12 30.41
USA 20.90 16.59
Pakistan 13.56 9.47
Brazil 9.12 5.06
Uzbekistan 5.21 5.06
world 153.71 132.12

17. Decreasing Plant Population
Source: Crop Reporting Service Department, Punjab
Recommended Plant Population (Production Plan 2013 – Punjab)
Early (March) (12 to 15 inch) 14 - 17.5 Thousands
Mid (April) (9 to 12 inch) 17.5 - 23 Thousands
Late (1st to 15 May) (6 to 9 inch) 23 - 35 Thousands
PlantPopulation/acre
16680
15405
14024 14396
13174 13439 13864
12111 12388
16595
15162
14138
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(est)
Average

18. Cotton Insect Pests & Diseases
Situation

19. CLCV
82.52
16.48
2009-10
62.2
37.8
2010-11
28
72
2011-12
4654
2012-13
12.06
87.94
2013-14
10.4
89.6
2014-15
Infected Un-infected

20. Armyworm
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT
%HOTSPOTS
2014
2015
Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab

21. Pink Bollworm
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT
%HOTSPOTS
2014
2015
Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab

22. Damaged Bolls

23. District-wise Pink Bollworm
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
%HOTSPOTS
Source: Pest Warning & Quality Control of Pesticides, Punjab

24. Future Management Plan For
Pink Bollworm
1. National Seminar
2. Technical Workshop
i) Engaging Entomologists to develop
Long & Short management strategies
for PBW
3. Training sessions with PCCC’s scientists &
Extension staff
4. Farmer’s awareness campaign at different
locations at Punjab & Sindh provinces

25. Trainings organized (PBW)
Topic Date Location
Cotton Production in Resilient Climatic
Phenomenon
04-11-
2015
CCRI, Multan
National Seminar on Pink Bollworm
management
11-01-
2016
CCRI Multan
National Seminar on Pink Bollworm
Management
21-01-
2016
CCRI, Sakrand
Pink Boll Worm Management 14-01-
2016
Chak No. 139/9L, Markaz
Kameer, Sahiwal
Pink Bollworm Management: training of
trainers
13-01-
2016
DDO Office Sahiwal

26. Training Programs by CCRI Multan
• Rao Sadarudin, Ali Pur, Muzafargarh
• Ch. Ilyas Farm, Jalalpur Pirwala, Shujabad
• Malik Ashraf Farm, Chak Saraye, Shujabad
• Peer Iqbal Shah Farm, Lodhran
• Shakoor Gujjar Farm, Lodhran
• Abdul Qudus Farm, Lodhran
• Abdul Ghaffar, Kot Lal Shah, Karor Pacca
• Malik Riaz Farm, Bahawalpur
• Mian Ijaz Farm, Khanewal
• Raza Hayat Harraj Farm, Khanewal
• Fakhar Imam Farm, Khanewal
• Munawar Saroya Farm, Rajanpur
• Yaqub Farm, Jhania
• Ch. Asghar Farm, Darya Khan, Bhakkar
• Noor ul Haq Jhandeer Farm, Mailsi

27. Training Programs by CCRI Sakrand
Dates
Location/
Districts
Seminar Topic
February 2, 2016 Matli, Badin
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 3, 2016
Shaikh Burkiyo
Tando M. Khan
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 4, 2016
Sindhri
Mirpurkhas
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 5, 2016
Jhudo
Mirpurkhas
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 9, 2016 Kunri, Umerkot
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 10, 2016
Chambar,
Tando Allahyar
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 11, 2016 Bhitshah, Matiary
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 12, 2016 Khyber, Matiary
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 16, 2016
Shahpur Chakar,
Sanghar
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm

28. Training Programs by CCRI Sakrand
Dates
Location/
Districts
Seminar Topic
February 17,
2016
Jhole, Sanghar
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 18,
2016
Shahdadpur,
Sanghar
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 19,
2016
CCRI-Sakrand,
Sakrand, Shaheed
Benazir Ababd
(Nawabshah)
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 23,
2016
Sarhari
Shaheed Benazir
Ababd (Nawabshah)
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 24,
2016
Kazi Ahmed
Shaheed Benazir
Ababd (Nawabshah)
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 25,
2016
Moro, N.Feroze
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
February 26,
2016
Bhiria, N. Feroze
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
March 1, 2016 Sui gas, Khairpur
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm
March 2, 2016 Kotdiji, Khairpur
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton Pests
with special reference to Pink bollworm

29. Training Programs by CCRI Sakrand
Dates
Location/
Districts
Seminar Topic
March 3, 2016 Saleh Pat, Sukkur
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
March 4, 2016 Rohri, Sukkur
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm
March 8, 2016
Mirpur Mathelo,
Ghotki
Cotton Production Technology and Management of Cotton
Pests with special reference to Pink bollworm

30. Market Rates
Seedcotton Lint
2015 2014 2015 2014
August 2332 2615 5543 5795
September 2352 2546 5610 5884
October 2785 2345 5582 5521
November 2737 2216 5623 5309
December 2666 2359 5698 5098
Average 2574 2417 5611 5645
Source: Average of local markets and KCA

31. Source: Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association
Province 2015-16 2014-15
Change over last
Year
Punjab 5,857,697 10,500,097 - 44.21%
Sindh 3,755,015 3,935,105 - 4.23%
Total 9,612,711 14,435,202 - 33.52%

32. Production Estimates
Expectedly 10.1 million bales
Source: 4th CCAC 14.12.2015
Province 2015-16
Punjab 7.400
Sindh 3.400
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.002954
Baluchistan 0.0570
PAKISTAN 10.859954
(million bales)

33. Targets for 2016-17
Area (Mil.
Hectares)
Production (Mil.
Bales)
Punjab 2.310 9.500
Sindh 0.650 4.500
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 0.001 0.003
Balochistan 0.038 0.098
PAKISTAN 2.999 14.101
Source: 5th FCA meeting

34. Thanks
khalidabdullah99@yahoo.com
khalidabdullah99@gmail.com