1. Catastrophic Incident Planning
by Design
James K. Greer
(913) 775-0309
jgreer@alisinc.com
The Worldwide Conference on Disaster Management
Toronto, CA June 24, 2013
jgreer@alisinc.com 1

2. What Makes an Incident Catastrophic ?
 Extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption
 Severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment,
economy, national morale, and/or government functions.
 Sustained national impacts over a prolonged period of time
 Almost immediately exceeds resources normally available to
State, local, tribal, and private-sector authorities
 Significantly interrupts governmental operations and emergency
services
 To such an extent that national security could be threatened
The Book Says: Magnitude and Effects
jgreer@alisinc.com 2

3.  Every catastrophic incident is unique
 Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill was not Exxon Valdez
 Hurricanes IKE/GUSTAV was not KATRINA/RITA
 Responding to and preparing for simultaneous disasters (The New Norm)
 Earthquake plus Tsunami plus nuclear reactor failure
 Oil Spill plus Hurricane
 4 disaster types for planning
 No notice disasters (earthquake, terrorism, HAZMAT)
 Short notice – Anticipated (Typhoon, wildfire, floods)
 Short notice –Unanticipated (Terrorism, H1N1 Spring 09)
 Continuous (Port Security, organized criminality, disaster recovery)
 Failure of Imagination (3 trailer tornado vs Joplin or Moore)
What Makes an Incident Catastrophic ?
Experience Says: Surprise and Simultaneity
jgreer@alisinc.com 3

4. 1o Effects: Catastrophic Detonation Effects
• Blast, radiation, fire, EMP
• Immediate in effect; lasting in duration
What Makes an Incident Catastrophic:
Cascading Effects
2o Effects: Indirect Effects
•Destruction, disorganization, disruption
• Downwind Fallout effects
• Loss/disruption of services (CIKR)
• Affect response efforts
3o Effects: Operational Effects
•Multi-State/Regional impacts
• Multi-functional (ESF)
• Life sustaining
• Nationwide prevent/protect
• Affect recovery efforts
1o
2o
3o
2o
3o
4o Effects: Strategic Effects
• Policy/Governmental
• Economic
• Environmental
• Social/Cultural
• Health/PTSD
• Long-term recovery/remediation
For instructional purposes only
jgreer@alisinc.com 4

5. 5
Challenges of Catastrophic Incidents
 Concurrent mission sets –
 Prevent, protect, respond, recover, and mitigate
 Simultaneous operations at strategic & tactical levels
 Against diverse threats and hazards
 Combining Emergency Management and Public Safety
 High tempo environment –
 Compressed plan, coordinate, execute, and adapt
 Complexity of information sharing –
 Difficulty achieving public sector common operating picture
 Horizontal and vertical
 Public and private sector information sharing
 Establish a user defined operating picture (UDOP)
 Information systems saturation
Managing catastrophic incidents requires
Conceptual planning to solve and manage complex problems
And detailed planning for execution
jgreer@alisinc.com
“The Scream” by Edvard Munch

6. A broad Conceptual Component:
“How to “Think Strategically” about a set of problems”
• A conceptual methodology for structuring thinking and learning
• A strategic thinking construct for “Problem Management”
The Detailed Planning Component:
“What to Think about a set of problems”
• Translates broad concepts into a complete and practical plan – “Problem Solving”
• Allows for the near precise “Tactical” application of resources & action
• National Incident Management System and Incident Command System
Planning Consists of Two Separate
But Interrelated Components
Design is an Approach to
the Conceptual Component that informs all mission areas

7. What is Design?
Definition: Design is an approach to critical and creative thinking that enables
a community to understand, visualize and describe complex, ill-structured
problems and develop approaches to solve them.
 Terrorism, man-made and natural threats and hazards are
generally complex, ill-structured problems.
 Critical thinking enables examining an environment and problem
in depth and from many points of view
 Creative thinking involves thinking in new, innovative ways while
capitalizing on imagination, insight and novel ideas
 Design enables detailed and crisis action planning by enabling
the team to understand, visualize and describe the
environment (context), the problem and potential solutions

8. Environmental Space
Problem Space
Solution SpaceAssessment Space
Adaptation Space
Think, Learn,
Understand, & Act in 5
Spaces simultaneously
Transilient - Passing abruptly or leaping from one thing or condition to another – Non-Linear Thinking
The Design Methodology

9. Capture
The
Difference
11
Understand the
Logic of the Guidance
The Design Methodology in Action

10. Framing
A perspective from which
we can understand and
act on a complex, ill-
structured problem.
Provides guideposts for
analyzing, understanding
and acting
Framing
Facilitates:
• Scoping
• Hypothesizing
• Modeling
Framing
Involves:
• Selecting
• Organizing
• Interpreting
• Sensing

11. jgreer@alisinc.com 11
Framing the Environment
Using a Systems Approach
Infrastructure
Health
Care
Public
Safety
Government
Economic
Response
Capabilities
Population
Culture Media
External
Stakeholders
Geography
& Weather
Major City/Region System Frame

12. Desired
End
State
First
Responders
Support of
The People
Military
Forces Political
Leadership
Law
Enforcement
Terrorist
Cells
Limited
Budgets
Natural
Hazards
Bureaucratic
Inertia
Weather &
Geography
Conflicts
Tensions
Frictions
Comprehensively Understanding the Problem
A “tug of war” between everything that helps us respond and recover
And everything that challenges those actions

13. Framing and Re-framing
Hurricane Katrina eclipsed the limits of tolerance for disasters
The Reframe
Post-Katrina
Emergency
Management
Reform Act

14. Design and the Planning Process
Phase 1
Understand
The Situation
Phase 2
Goals and
Objectives
Phase 3
Plan
Development
Phase 4
Plan
Preparation
Phase 5
Plan
Refinement

15. 15
Coordinated Planning vs
Integrated Planning
StateAStateBStateC
Coordinated plans are
like acquaintances…
Integrated plans are
like long term relationships.
jgreer@alisinc.com

16. 16
Coordinated Planning…
“Out of many – many”
• Stakeholders plan for and react to their immediate problem
• Reveals interdependencies only in crisis
• Solution sets are stove-piped and tactically focused
• Resources are over committed or under committed
Integrated Planning…
“Out of many – one”
• Sets conditions for solving simultaneous complex problems
• Enables unity of effort and mutually reinforcing actions
• Overcomes cascading tactical, regional and strategic effects
• Strengthens synchronization and limited resource prioritization
Coordinated Planning vs
Integrated Planning
jgreer@alisinc.com
Design enables integrated planning

17. Design and Preparedness

18. 18
Value of Integrated Plans
Ensures common and accepted understanding of:
• The environment in which threats and hazards will be encountered
• Complex problem sets that make up the New Norm
• Solutions the Region’s States, Cities and Counties can and will adopt
Enables adaptive crisis action planning based on integrated plans
Fosters effective oversight, coordination and communication
• Enhancing unity of effort and information sharing
• Across the Region; horizontally and vertically
Enables effective preparedness and timely regional response
• Identifies regional objectives/priorities; defines authorities/policies
• Ensures field response/recovery organization in place and capable
• Identifies, obtains, and allocates essential resources and capabilities
• Considers (continuously and in-stride) future recovery requirements
jgreer@alisinc.com
Design enables Integrated Planning

19. Catastrophic Incident Planning
by Design
James K. Greer
(913) 775-0309
jgreer@alisinc.com
The Worldwide Conference on Disaster Management
Toronto, CA June 24, 2013
jgreer@alisinc.com 19