2. OUR BASIC IDEA IS TAKEN FROM
JACOB BRONOWSKI: “THE ASCENT OF
MAN”
BRONOWSKI IDENTIFIES TWO CHOICES FACING HUMANITY IN TIMES OF
CATASTROPHE:
1. “…ASSERTION OF DOGMA THAT CLOSES THE MIND, & TURNS A NATION, A
CIVILIZATION, INTO A REGIMENT OF GHOSTS – OBEDIENT GHOSTS OR
TORTURED GHOSTS…WHEN PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE ABSOLUTE
KNOWLEDGE, WITH NO TEST IN REALITY, THIS IS HOW THEY BEHAVE (SHOWS
THE ASH PONDS AT AUSCHWITZ)
2. “ …MAN IS DISTINGIUSHED FROM OTHER ANIMALS BY HIS IMAGINATIVE GIFTS.
HE MAKES PLANS, INVENTIONS, NEW DISCOVERIES, BY PUTTING DIFFERENT
TALENTS TOGETHER; & HIS DISCOVERIES BECOME MORE SUBTLE &
PENETRATING, AS HE LEARNS TO COMBINE HIS TALENTS IN MORE COMPLEX &
INTIMATE WAYS….AN ASCENDING TRELLIS OF GIFTS”. (THE DNA DOUBLE HELIX)
3. ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS THINKING
• HUMANITY TODAY IS AGAIN LIVING THROUGH CATASTROPHIC
EVENTS IN THE FORM OF A COVID-19 PANDEMIC.
• HISTORY SHOWS THAT HUMANITY HAS ADAPTED TO
CATASTROPHIC EVENTS & EVOLVED INTO A STRONGER SPECIES.
• IN THESE LECTURES WE TAKE AN HISTORIAN’S LOOK AT THE FOUR
GREAT TRIALS OF HUMANITY: CONQUEST BY ANOTHER PEOPLE;
WAR BETWEEN PEOPLE; FAMINE; AND PESTILENCE. THE “FOUR
HORSEMEN” OF THE BIBLICAL APOCALYPSE.
• WE TAKE A CLOSE LOOK - IN A STRAIGHTFORWARD HISTORICAL
WAY – USING THE APPLIED SCIENCE OF “COMPLEX ADAPTIVE
SYSTEMS” THINKING, TO OBSERVE HOW HUMANITY HAS
ADAPTED, TO COPE WITH THE CONSEQUENCES OF THESE
CATASTROPHIC EVENTS
4. COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
• ALL “ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS”, SIMPLE OR COMPLEX, HAVE
ONE THING IN COMMON: THEY ADAPT OR “LEARN” TO
RECOGNISE EXTERNAL CHANGES IN THEIR ENVIRONMENT
& REACT IN A CERTAIN WAY TO WHAT THEY LEARN.
• ONE OF THE SIMPLEST ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS ARE THE “2-
WIRE” THERMOSTATS OFTEN FOUND IN DOMESTIC
HEATING SYSTEMS WHICH ARE SET TO KEEP HOUSES AT A
CONSTANT TEMPERATURE.
• ONE OF THE MOST COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS IS THE
ECONOMY OF A NATION WHERE EACH CITIZEN IS
SIMULTANEOUSLY: A CONSUMER OF GOODS & SERVICES;
PROVIDES HER/HIS SKILLS & WORKTIME TO PRODUCE
OTHER GOODS & SERVICES; IS A BORROWER OF MONEY;
& IS A LENDER OF MONEY
5. ARE NOT PRESENT COMPUTER-BASED
METHODS OF STUDY SUFFICIENT, TO
ANALYSE CURRENT EVENTS
ONE OF THE PIONEERS OF THE COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS ANALYSIS –
JOHN HOLLAND - DOES NOT THINK SO:
“ ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ROLES A COMPUTER CAN PLAY IS TO ACT
AS A SIMULATOR OF PHYSICAL PROCESSES. WHEN A COMPUTER MIMICS
THE BEHAVIOUR OF A SYSTEM, SUCH AS THE FLOW OF AIR OVER AN
AIRPLANE WING, IT PROVIDES US WITH A UNIQUE WAY OF STUDYING
THE FACTORS THAT CONTROL THAT BEHVIOUR. THE KEY, OF COURSE, IS
FOR THE COMPUTER TO OFFER AN ACCURATE RENDITION OF THE
SYSTEM BEING STUDIED…HOWEVER, THERE ARE SYSTEMS OF CRUCIAL
INTEREST TO HUMANKIND THAT HAVE SO FAR DEFIED ACCURATE
SIMULATION BY COMPUTER. ECONOMIES, ECOLOGIES, IMMUNE
SYSTEMS, DEVELOPING EMBRYOS, & THE BRAIN ALL EXHIBIT
COMPLEXITIES THAT BLOCK BROADLY ATTEMPTS AT COMPREHENSION.
FOR EXAMPLE, THE EQUATION-BASED METHODS THAT WORK WELL FOR
AIRPLANES HAVE A MUCH MORE LIMITED SCOPE FOR ECONOMIES…”
(JOHN H. HOLLAND. “COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS”. DAEDALUS. VOL 121,
NO. 1. WINTER 1992. THE M.I.T. PRESS)
6. THE THREE CHARACTERISTICS SHARED
BY ALL COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS
1.EVOLUTION
2. AGGREGATE BEHAVIOUR
3. ANTICIPATION
7. EVOLUTION OF HUMANITY (PEOPLE
LIVING IN CITY-STATES,KINGDOMS,
NATIONS,EMPIRES ETC.)
• IN THIS LECTURE SERIES WE LOOK AT HOW PEOPLE
(HOLLAND CALLS THESE PEOPLE “EVOLVING
STRUCTURES”) WERE IMPACTED BY CONQUEST, WAR,
FAMINE & PLAGUE.
• HOW DID PEOPLE’S WAY OF LIFE CHANGE?
• HOW DID PEOPLE REORGANISE THEMSELVES?
• HOW DID PEOPLE ADAPT TO CHANGES?
• HOW DID, WHERE THE PEOPLE LIVED, CHANGE ITS
“SHAPE”: POLITICALLY, ECONOMICALLY, & SOCIALLY.
(NOTE: THESE CHANGES COULD HAVE OCCURRED IN
YEARS, DECADES OR CENTURIES)
8. AGGREGATE BEHAVIOUR OF PEOPLE
WE ARE STUDYING (THE
“STAKEHOLDERS”)
• WE CAN DIVIDE STAKEHOLDERS INTO
CATEGORIES, AGE GROUPS, MALE/FEMALE
ETC.
• “AGGREGATE BEHAVIOUR” IS THE STUDY OF
THE INTERACTION OF EACH STAKEHOLDER
GROUP WITH EVERY OTHER GROUP AS THE
CHANGES OCCUR.
9. ANTICIPATION BY EACH PERSON AS
TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CHANGED BY CURRENT EVENTS
• WHEN THE VIEWS OF THE FUTURE ARE
AGGREGATED, THEIR COMBINED
ANTICIPATIONS CAN ALTER THE OUTCOME OF
THE FUTURE.
• THIS IS THE DYNAMIC PART OF THE CONCEPT
OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS.
• IN ECONOMICS IT IS ALSO THE KEY PART OF
DYNAMIC ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, CALLED:
EXPECTATIONS
10. AN EXAMPLE OF ANTICIPATION IN
THE COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM OF
THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY
• IN JANUARY 2021 EVERY PERSON IN THE 25+
MILLION AUSTRALIAN POPULATION MAKES
DECISIONS ABOUT THE NEXT 12 MONTHS &
MODIFIES THEIR PLANS FOR THE NEXT 12
MONTHS AS CONSUMERS, WORKERS,
BORROWERS, & LENDERS.
• MOST ECONOMISTS AGREE WITH KEYNES THAT
MOST PERSONS ENDEAVOUR TO CONFORM
WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE MAJORITY OR
THE AVERAGE.
11. LECTURE 2: HUMANITY &
CATASTROPHIC CHANGE: A HISTORY.
ROMAN EMPIRE BY CONQUEST
12. ROMAN EMPIRE’S LEGACY TO
HUMANITY: ROMANITAS.
• A RUTHLESS, UNSTOPPABLE MILITARY MACHINE THAT BECAME THE
“MOTHER HOUSE OF MODERN ARMIES” TO ASSERT THE PAX ROMANA.
• SOME ROMAN MILITARY LEADERS THAT ARE STILL STUDIED TODAY.
• GENOCIDE OF SOME RACES (EG: GAULS)
• MASSIVE SLAVE LABOUR.
• LARGE SCALE INFRASTRUCTURE ( EG: ROADS FOR TRADE & MILITARY
USE; COLOSSEUMS FOR BLOOD SPORTS).
• A WORKING REPUBLIC BASED ON THE RULE OF LAW, INCLUDING JUS
GENTIUM (UNIVERSALITY).
• IMPERIAL RULE BY “DIVINE RIGHT” (EG: CAESAR AUGUSTUS).
• SOME BASIC RULES & INFRASTRUCTURE FOR TRADE, MONEY &
BANKING, ENABLING A NEW CLASS – PUBLICANI – ENTREPRENEURS &
LIMITED LIBILITY TRADING (PARTES).
• A LONG ROMAN PEACE IMPOSED ON A BIG PART OF HUMANITY
PREVIOUSLY RIVEN BY TRIBAL CONFLICT & WARLORDS THAT SCOURGED
THE LAND IN CONTINUOUS WARFARE.
13. LECTURE 3: THE VIOLENT FORMATION
& COLLAPSE OF THE MONGOL
EMPIRE
14. MONGOL EMPIRE’S LEGACY TO
HUMANITY: “PAX MONGOLICA”
• A SAVAGE ARMY OF 105,000 INVENTED SPEED & MOBILITY
ACROSS GREAT DISTANCES, & EXPERTS IN SIEGE WARFARE.
• REPUTATION FOR EXTERMINATING WHOLE POPULATIONS OF
FORTIFIED CITIES.
• “PAX MONGOLICA” THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LAND TRADE
ROUTE – THE “SILK ROAD” - BETWEEN EAST ASIA & EUROPE.
• DISRUPTER OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF WESTERN EUROPE AS
CHRISTENDOM & ASIA MINOR AS CENTRE OF ISLAM.
• ESTABLISHED LONG-DISTANCE, HIGH-SPEED MAIL SYSTEMS.
• PROMOTED THE WORKS OF CHINESE ASTRONOMERS &
MATHEMATICIANS IN WESTERN EUROPE.
• DEMONSTRATED CLEARLY THE FLAWS IN DYNASTIC RULE ONCE
THE FOUNDING GENIUS OF THE DYNASTY DIES, WHEN THE
MONGOL EMPIRE DISINTEGRATED AFTER GENGHIS KHAN’S
DEATH.
16. THE LEGACY OF WORLD WARS 1 & 2
IN EUROPE (1)
• A GERMAN ALLIANCE OF “CENTRAL POWERS” WENT TO WAR WITH 44
MILLION MEN IN 1914, OF WHICH 3.4 MILLION DIED, & 10 MILLION
WOUNDED, WIPING OUT ONE THIRD OF A WORKFORCE. THEY LOST THE
WAR AGAINST 356 MILLION “ENTENTE POWERS” MEN AVAILABLE FOR
WAR, OF WHOM ONLY 7% WERE LOST TO ECONOMIC LIFE BY DEATH OR
DISABILITY.
• THE ENTENTE POWERS EXACTED A TERRIBLE REVENGE & ECONOMICALLY
DESTROYED GERMANY. WITH SEETHING ANGER & ECONOMIC
DESPERATION GERMANY CHOSE A MURDEROUS DICTATOR TO CREATE
“… ONE OF THE GREATEST ARMIES IN WORLD HISTORY”
• WHEN WORLD WAR 2 ENDED THERE WERE 36.5 MILLION DEAD
EUROPEANS ( 19 MILLION CIVILIANS). EUROPE WAS ECONOMICALLY
SHATTERED. GERMANY CALLED THIS TIME STUNDE NULL (ZERO HOUR):
BRITAIN WAS NEARLY BANKRUPT, THE SOVIET ECONOMY WAS WRECKED,
AS WAS FRANCE.
• AS PAYMASTER & MAIN PRODUCTION UNIT FOR ALLIES US GROSS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT ROSE BY 84% BETWEEN 1939 & 1945.
17. THE LEGACY OF WORLD WARS 1 & 2
IN EUROPE (2)
• BRETTON WOODS CONFERENCE LED BY J. M. KEYNES,CREATED: INTERNATIONAL
MONETARY FUND & INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION &
DEVLOPMENT (LATER KNOWN AS WORLD BANK).
• KEYNES NEGOTIATED $3.75 BILLION ($ 1947) FOR SEMI-BANKRUPT U.K.
• MARSHALL PLAN TO RECONSTRUCT EUROPE. PAID OUT $13 BILLION ($1947) FOR
FOOD,MACHINERY, RAW MATERIALS. LED TO 1950/60s BOOM IN EUROPE.
SOVIET UNION DID NOT JOIN – SOWED SEEDS OF DEMISE OF SOVIET ECONOMY.
• NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANISATION (NATO): 11 COUNTRIES PLEDGED TO
STAND TOGETHER IN THE EVENT OF A SOVIET INVASION.
• TREATY OF ROME (1957) CREATED EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
INTEGRATING ECONOMIES OF BELGIUM, FRANCE, GERMANY ITALY, LUXEMBURG,
HOLLAND. BRITAIN JOINED IN 1973 & LEFT IN 2021. GREECE JOINED IN 1981.
• 1993 EUROPEAN COMMUNITY WAS FORMED: INTEGRATING NON-ECONOMIC
GOVERNANCE OF MEMBER COUNTRIES. CREATING THIRD LARGEST WORLD
POWER.
18. LECTURE 5: JAPAN’s IMPERIAL
AMBITIONS (CONQUESTS MADE IN
RED. CONQUESTS PLANNED, IN PINK)
19. LEGACY OF WORLD WAR 2 IN THE
INDO-PACIFIC (1)
• THE MEIJI REVOLUTION IN 1868 TRANSFORMED JAPAN FROM A BACKWARD
AGRARIAN COUNTRY INTO ASIA’S FIRST INDUSTRIAL GIANT. ITS SHIPBUILDING
INDUSTRY GAVE IT AN ADVANCED NAVY & A MILITARY DICTATORSHIP FROM
1937, GAVE IT A MODERN ARMY.
• DICTATORSHIP HAD STRONG IMPERIAL AMBITIONS WHICH BEGAN IN 19TH
CENTURY.
• CONCEPT OF IMPERIAL EXPANSION SET OUT IN “GREATER EAST ASIA CO-
PROSPERITY” PLAN. THIS REQUIRED OCCUPATION OF ISLANDS, CONQUEST OF
EUROPEAN COLONIES & WAR WITH U.S.A.
• ATTACK ON PEARL HARBOUR BY JAPANESE NAVY PRECIPITATED A WAR WHICH
JAPAN COULD NOT WIN.
• U.S. & JAPAN RE-DEFINED NAVAL WARFARE IN INDO-PACIFIC (INCL INTRICATE
AMPHIBIOUS WARFARE) & THE USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO ACHIEVE
UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.
• APART FROM 2.5 MILLION JAPANESE ( COMBATANTS & CIVILIANS) , JAPAN KILLED
17-22 MILLION CHINESE CIVILIANS; & 2.8 MILLION CIVILIANS IN COUNTRIES
CONQUERED IN INDO PACIFIC
20. LEGACY OF WORLD WAR 2 IN THE
INDO-PACIFIC (2)
• JAPAN ESTABLISHED A TEMPLATE FOR OTHER COUNTRIES
IN THE INDO-PACIFIC, IN WHICH THE FOUNDATIONS WERE
WELL LAID FOR ITS SUSTAINED INDUSTRIAL GROWTH.
• UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER OF JAPAN ENABLED ALLIES
TO IMPOSE A DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUTION ON JAPAN:
“FREEDOM OF SPEECH, OF RELIGION, OF THOUGHT,
RESPECT FOR FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN RIGHTS.”
• RESTRUCTURING OF POLITICAL & ECONOMIC
INSTITUTIONS ENABLED JAPAN TO BECOME A LEADING
POWER IN THE INDO-PACIFIC, ALLIED TO U.S.A.
21. LECTURE 6: FAMINES ANCIENT. THE
4.2 KILOYEAR EVENT( HATCH AREAS
FLOODS; DOTTED AREAS DROUGHT)
22. WHAT HAPPENED TO CIVILISATIONS
OF NILE, MESOPOTAMIA & INDUS
WHEN CLIMATE CHANGED 2200 BC
NILE: ABOUT ONCE EVERY 7 YEARS 132 CUBIC METRES OF NILE WATER FROM
ETHIOPIAN WINTER RAIN DROPPED UP TO 50 TIMES. (LEADERS LIKE JOSEPH
STORED RESERVES OF GRAIN) . BETWEEN 2200BC & 2100BC VERY LITTLE NILE
WATER. UP TO 700,000 PEOPLE STARVED TO DEATH/ MIGRATED.
MESOPOTAMIA: 2200BC EVENT NEXT HIT NORTH MESOPOTAMIA IN 100 YEAR
DROUGHT. NORTH MESOPOTAMIA (DEVASTATED KILLING ‘000s) MIGRATED
SOUTH. SOUTH MESOPOTAMIANS BUILT 180 KILOMETRE WALL CALLED
“REPELLER OF AMORITES”. GENERAL CIVIL WAR OUT OF WHICH CAME A NEW
VIBRANT CIVILISATION OF BABYLON.
INDUS VALLEY: 2200BC. COOLING & ARIDIFICATION OF CENTRAL ASIAN GRASSLANDS
(“BOND 3 COOLING EVENT” IN CLIMATE SCIENCE) FORCED NOMADIC HERDERS
TO MOVE WEST & SOUTH (KNOWN AS INDO-EUROPEAN MIGRATION) THE INDO-
ARYAN MIGRATION BLLENDED/DISPLACED OLD INDUS VALLEY CIVILISATION. IN
ABOUT 1900BC. CLIMATE ABERRATIONS STOPPED MONSOONS & STOPPED
AGRICULTURE OF OLD CIVILISATION, WHO MOVED TO SOUTH INDIA, & CAME TO
BE KNOWN AS “DRAVIDIANS”
24. TAKING THE GREAT CHINESE FAMINE
OUT OF THE “DUSTBIN OF HISTORY”,
& GIVING IT A CAREFUL LOOK
• IN MANY QUARTERS OF THE WORLD THIS EVENT EITHER DID NOT HAPPEN OR
WAS A NON-EVENT. WE ARGUE THAT IT IS A DEMONSTRATION OF THE
FUNDAMENTAL FLAW IN ECONOMIC SYSTEMS BASED ON MARXIST – LENINIST
ECONOMIC DETERMINISM: THE MODE OF PRODUCTION DETERMINES ALL
POLITICAL, CULTURAL & SOCIAL LIFE IN A COUNTRY.
• SOVIET UNION COLLAPSED BECAUSE 65% -75% OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
WENT TO MISSILE TECHNOLOGY & RULING ELITE WAS CORRUPT .
• THE CHINESE FAMINE DEMONSTRATEDE THAT WHEN THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF
CHINA DESTROYED THE THOUSANDS OF YEARS OLD CHINESE AGRICULTURAL
SECTOR & TRIED TO USE THE HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS PEOPLE IN BADLY
PLANNED & MANAGED INDUSTRIAL VENTURES IT LED TO: (1) ECONOMIC
CHAOS; (2) STARVATION WHICH KILLED 15 TO 55 MILLION CHINESE.
• MAO HIMSELF SAID: “ WHEN A MAN REACHES OLD AGE , HE WILL DIE, AND THE
SAME IS TRUE OF A PARTY.”
• THE DYNASTIC RULE OF THE OLD GUARD & THEIR PRINCELINGS ENDS WITH THE
CURRENT RULERS. AS LONG AS THE BEIJING ELITE TRY TO MICRO-MANAGE THE
LIVES OF OVER 1 BILLION CHINESE (WHO ARE NATURAL ENTREPRENEURS) BASED
ON MARXIST-LENINIST IDEAS, BUREAUCRATIC BUNGLES LIKE THE FAMINE OF
1958-1962 WILL KEEP HAPPENING.
26. LEGACY OF THE BLACK DEATH
• THE BLACK DEATH IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE KILLED ABOUT 75 MILLION
PEOPLE IN WEST & EAST EUROPE 50% - 60% OF THEIR POPULATIONS.
• THIS DISEASE DEMONSTRATED THAT ZOONOTIC DISEASES: HAVE BEEN
AROUND FOR AT LEAST 8000 YEARS; TEND TO ORIGINATE IN WEST ASIAN
PASTORAL AREAS; MUTATE INTO HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS & DEADLY
FORMS; AMENABLE TO TREATMENTS; CAN DEPOPULATE (DISABLE)
AREAS QUICKLY, IF MISMANAGED.
• ACCELERATED THE “COMMERCIAL REVOLUTION” WHICH HAD BEGUN IN
THE 11TH CENTURY, EUROPE, DIVERTING TRADE/WEALTH AWAY FROM
CHURCH & ARISTOCRACY TO “ENTREPRENEURS”
• THIS LED TO GREAT EXPLORATIONS & COLONISATIONS BY EUROPEANS.
• LED TO “GREAT SCHISM” IN THE CHURCH OF ROME ITSELF, &
EVENTUALLY REFORMATION.
• LAID THE FOUNDATION FOR THE RENAISSANCE IN THE 15TH CENTURY.
27. LECTURE 9: PLAGUES OF THE 20TH &
21ST CENTURIES
LECTURE TO BE GIVEN BY A GUEST LECTURER
