Lauchlan T. Munro gave a presentation on the return of national development planning. He discussed three hypotheses for the recent doubling of countries with national development plans (NDPs) over the past decade: 1) NDPs help countries monitor and achieve Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals, 2) NDPs help large developing countries manage risks from economic liberalization, and 3) some NDPs promote non-SDG agendas like preserving culture or independence from international influence. Munro reviewed evidence for each hypothesis and noted more research is needed to fully understand reasons for the return of NDPs.

1. National
Development
Planning: The
Return of History
Lauchlan T. Munro
Presentation to CASID Annual
Conference, Toronto, ON
2 June 2017

2. When Did We Lose Interest in Planning?
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

3. When Did We Lose Interest in Planning (2)?
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

4. When Did We Lose Interest in Planning (3)?
G.M.Meier, Leading Issues in Economic Development
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1st
Edition
1964
2nd
Edition
1970
3rd
Edition
1976
4th
Edition
1984
5th
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1989
6th
Edition
1995
7th
Edition
2000
8th
Edition
2005
% of pages on development
planning
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1st
Edition
1964
2nd
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1970
3rd
Edition
1976
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1984
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Edition
1989
6th
Edition
1995
7th
Edition
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8th
Edition
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% of pages on rent seeking,
govt failure

5. But, national planning is back in style!
The number of countries with an NDP
has doubled in ten years
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2016

6. What Is Driving the Increase in
Number of National Dev Plans?
• Not UN, World Bank, IMF, or OECD…
• They are barely aware of the phenomenon.
• Working hypotheses:
– NDPs are a response to monitor MDGs/SDGs
and plan for implementation
– NDPs are tools of activist states trying to
manage downside risks of liberal globalisation
– NDPs are a means to promote non- (even
anti-) SDG agendas
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

7. Hypothesis #1: NDPs as tool for
MDGs/SDGs monitoring and achievement
• Highly Indebted Poor Country Initiative (HIPC) deal:
debt relief in exchange for commitment to poverty
reduction.
• Five core principles: The PRSP should be country-
driven, result-oriented, comprehensive, partnership-
oriented, and based on a long-term perspective.
(Sound like a national development plan!)
• 28 countries had a PRSP within four years of the
launch of PRSP process in 1999. IMF lists 70 PRSPs
on http://www.imf.org/external/np/prsp/prsp.aspx
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

8. Hypothesis #1 (Contd)
• For these countries, PRSPs brought national
development planning back “through the back door”
• The curious marriage of results-based management
and the idealist agenda of poverty reduction and the
MDGs (Hulme 2007).
• RBM’s origins in Stalinist planning.
• Paradox: PRSPs were initially criticised as SAP-lite
brought back the key issues of nat dev planning to
the fore:
– Capacity to plan, prioritise
– Capacity to design comprehensive programmes
– Lack of socio-economic data
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

9. Hypothesis No. 1 (cont’d)
• This explanation works for 70ish PRSP countries, but
that leaves us 40+ others to explain…
• Especially important omissions from this explanation
are the development giants:
– Brazil, China, India, Indonesia
• The “emerging economies”
• Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico,
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, UAE…
• The development dissidents
– Belarus, Burma, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
Zimbabwe
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

10. Hypothesis No. 2 NDPs as tools to
manage liberal globalisation
• This explanation appears to fit most of the
development giants and the emerging economies
• Most of these countries have NDPs and most appear
to be taking them seriously
– China, India, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia
• Objectives of these plans are often “transformational”
• Include policy measures designed to insulate these
countries from donor/IFI pressure, to build diversified
export economies, to move up value chains, to build
world-class firms (often with state participation)…
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

11. Hypothesis No. 3: NDPs as means to
promote non- (even anti-) SDG agendas
• This hypothesis fits the development dissidents and
(many) of the development giants.
• Some NDPs as tools of economic and social policy,
investment planning. Some NDPs as political signalling,
either to local or international audiences.
• Non-SDG goals: export diversification, industrialisation
(green or other), infrastructure development (green or
other), building advanced capacities in scientific R&D,
promoting national status on the international stage,
promoting national independence.
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

12. • Anti-SDG goals: preservation of the “national culture”
(often to detriment of minorities), realisation of the
historic destiny of the nation, productivism,
downgrading of environment, gender, human rights,
democratic/good governance, inequality, poverty
reduction…
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017
Hypothesis No. 3 (Cont’d)

13. The Way Forward
• Tentative findings based on preliminary review of
literature and preliminary review of NDPs.
• Stay tuned!
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017

14. Thank you! Merci!
Lauchlan T. Munro
School of International Development and Global
Studies
FSS8006, 120 University Private
Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5
lmunro@uottawa.ca
Lauchlan T. Munro, CASID, Toronto, 2 June 2017