The document brushes the topics of Forecasting, Fashion forecasting, Fundamental principles of forecasting, Methods of forecasting (qualitative, quantitative, casual, judgemental, time series), Categories of fashion forecast (long term, short term), Forecast errors, and Causes of fashion forecast errors.
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Chic, modern and Danish, VERO MODA is all about rebooting your wardrobe with fresh basics and suped-up tailoring.Try out muted tones and relaxed pieces with a signature Scandi-cool vibe – we heart the fun prints, fuzzy knits and textured outerwear.
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Managing the merchandise and retail marketingSanjay Jana
these are very useful slides related to retail marketing and merchandise management. it helped me a lot in understanding the changing scenario of the consumers from unorganized retailing to organized retailing.
this presentation first define what is visual merchandising then deal about design elements and principle that basically support how to apply on retail store exterior and interior parts.
Chic, modern and Danish, VERO MODA is all about rebooting your wardrobe with fresh basics and suped-up tailoring.Try out muted tones and relaxed pieces with a signature Scandi-cool vibe – we heart the fun prints, fuzzy knits and textured outerwear.
In this project, I worked with a group to create a buying plan for the shoes department of Zara. We analyzed up and coming trends for footwear and looked to see how those trends could further expand the ZARA shoe market.
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price discounting strategy. As a result, the hotel decided to focu.docxChantellPantoja184
price discounting strategy. As a result, the hotel decided to focus on the government market because of the hotel's location.
The government market is price-sensitive (there is an allowable per diem) and not as quality-conscious, and the hotel could selectively discount to this large-volume market. Once again, it is important to point out that marketing planning is a continuous process. Marketing managers must evaluate the situation and adapt to changes that occur. Evaluating the success of the marketing plan is the moment of truth. Managers develop a plan to increase the probability of success, and once the plan is implemented, it is important for management to monitor the results. Any variance from the predicted results should be identified, evaluated, and corrected.
As the environment changes or the results vary, management may need to return to the appropriate step to reformulate marketing strategy or the action plans. The marketing planning process continues as a dynamic procedure, with sufficient flexibility allowing for changes in strategies, action plans, or implementation schedules.
SALES FORECASTING
190 CHAPTER 5 DEVELOPING A MARKETING PLAN
SALES FORECASTING 189
One of the most critical components of a marketing plan is the forecast for sales. Sales forecasting is the process for determining current sales and estimating future sales for a product or service. The success of the firm often results from the accuracy of forecasts. The decisions about the elements of the marketing mix—product-service mix, price, promotion, and distribution— that are made during the situation analysis are based on sales forecasts.
Sales forecasting The process for determining current sales and estimating future sales for a product or service.
Sales Forecasting Techniques
Sales forecasting techniques are separated" into two broad categories: quantitative techniques and qualitative techniques. Quantitative techniques use past data values and employ a set of rules to obtain estimates of future sales. Qualitative techniques rely on judgment or intuition and tend to be used when data are not readily available. Quantitative methods can be further classified as either causal or time series. Both types of quantitative methods use trends in historical data to predict future sales; however, causal analysis techniques establish a cause and effect relationship between variables and the results. Using historical data to establish the relationship between sales and other factors that are believed to influence sales. These techniques model the relationships
Expert opinion
Marketers look to a panel of experts with knowledge of the industry and the marketplace to provide a forecast.
Delphi technique The Delphi technique involves collecting forecasts, developing composites, and sending the data to those participating several times until a consensus results.
Sales force forecast
This technique aggregates the sales forecast of each .
Is the practice of predicting something that will happen or come to be in the future. It is not, however, like horoscope or tarot reading or other practices carried out by the likes of psychics. Forecasting relies on solid evidence to predict future events. It is used in a number of areas today, most commonly in the process of predicting the future weather and the imminent economic climate.
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We took two quality control problems from the apparel/textile industry and used 2 classical QC tools to solve one of them, i.e., fishbone diagram and flowchart for the open seam defect, and 2 new QC tools to solve the other one, i.e., tree diagram and affinity diagram for the shade variation defect. We presented a report on the same.
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3. “
Basically, forecasting is a decision-making
tool that helps businesses cope with the
impact of the future’s uncertainty by
examining historical data and trends.
3
4. Fashion Forecasting
▷ Essentially, fashion
forecasters predict the
collection of silhouettes,
colors, textures, fabrics,
graphics, prints, footwear,
accessories that will be the
forthcoming trends on the
runway and in retail stores
from season to season.
4
5. Fashion Forecasting
▷ By examining new, emerging
trends across all industries
and meticulous
considerations they arrive at
conclusions to see how they
may influence future fashion
trends. This includes new
developments across the
creative industries.
5
8. Fundamental Principles of Forecasting
Forecasts are almostalways incorrect. It’s almost
never a question of whether a forecast is correct or
not, but it’s almost never a question of whether a
forecast is correct or not. Instead, the attention should
be on the question of “how wrong do we estimate it to
be?” and “how do we plan to handle the probable
forecast error?” Much of the discussion about the
firm’s buffer capacity or buffer stock is based on the
amount of the prediction error.
8
9. Fundamental Principles of Forecasting
Forecasts for groups or families of goods are more
accurate. A decent forecast for a product line is usually
easier to develop than one for a single product. As
individual product forecasting errors are accumulated,
they tend to cancel each other out. Forecasting
demand for all family sedans, for example, is often
more accurate than forecasting demand for a single
model of sedan.
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10. Fundamental Principles of Forecasting
Forecasts over shorter time periods are more
accurate. There are less probable interruptions in the
near future in general. In the foreseeable future, there
are fewer possible disruptions that could affect
product demand. Demand over long periods of time in
the future is often unreliable.
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11. Fundamental Principles of Forecasting
Every projection should contain a margin of error
estimate. The first principle emphasised the
significance of responding to the query. “How far off
the mark is the forecast?” As a result, an estimate of
the forecast error is a crucial metric to include with the
forecast. To be complete, a good forecast must include
both the forecast estimate and the error estimate.
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12. Fundamental Principles of Forecasting
Forecasts aren’t a replacement for calculateddemand.
When you have real demand data for a certain time
period, you should never rely your calculations on the
prediction for that same time period. When possible,
always use real data.
12
14. Qualitative Methods
▷ These methods are based on emotions,
intuitions, judgments, personal
experiences, and opinions. This means that
there is no math involved in qualitative
forecasting methods. Delphi Method,
Market Survey, Executive Opinion,
SalesForce Composite are part of this type
of forecasting.
14
15. Quantitative Methods
▷ These methods depend wholly on
mathematical or quantitative models. The
outcome of this method relies entirely on
mathematical calculations. Time Series and
Associative Models are a part of this type
of forecasting.
15
16. Casual Methods
▷ Regression analysis and autoregressive moving
average with exogenous inputs are causal
forecasting methods that predict a variable using
underlying factors. These methods assume that a
mathematical function using known current
variables can be used to forecast the future value
of a variable.
16
17. Judgemental Methods
▷ The Delphi method, scenario building, statistical
surveys and composite forecasts each are
judgmental forecasting methods based on
intuition and subjective estimates. The methods
produce a prediction based on a collection of
opinions made by managers and panels of experts
or represented in a survey.
17
18. Time Series Methods
▷ The time series type of forecasting methods, such
as exponential smoothing, moving average and
trend analysis, employ historical data to estimate
future outcomes. A time series is a group of data
that’s recorded over a specified period, such as a
company’s sales by quarter since the year 2000 or
the annual production of Coca Cola since 1975.
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20. ▷ Major changes in international domestic
demographics,
▷ Shifts in the fashion industry along with market
structures, consume expectations,
▷ Values, and impulsion to buy,
▷ New developments in technology, and
Long Term Forecasting
Long-term forecasting seeks to identify:
20
21. Long Term Forecasting
▷ Shifts in the economic, political, and cultural
alliances between certain countries.
There are many specialized marketing consultants
that focus on long-term forecasting and attend trade
shows and other events that notify the industry on
what is to come.
21
22. Short Term Forecasting
▷ Short-term forecasting focuses on current events
both domestically and internationally as well as
pop culture in order to identify possible trends
that can be communicated to the customer
through the seasonal color palette, fabric, and
silhouette stories.
▷ It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look
that intrigues our eyes.
22
23. Short Term Forecasting
▷ Some important areas to follow when scanning
the environment are: current events, art, sports,
science and technology.
▷ Short-term forecasting can also be considered fad
forecasting.
23
26. Forecast Errors
Mean Forecast
Error (MFE). As
the name implies,
this term is
calculated as the
mathematical
average forecast
error over a
specified time
period.
26
The formula is:
27. Forecast Errors
Mean Absolute
Deviation(MAD).
The formula is again
given as the name
of the term. It
literally means the
average of the
mathematical
absolute deviations
of the forecast
errors (deviations). 27
The formula is:
28. Forecast Errors
Tracking Signal. Similar to the concept of control limits
for statistical process control charts, the tracking signal
provides a somewhat subjective limit for the
forecasting method to go subjective limit for the
forecasting method to go off track before “off track”
before some action is taken. It is calculated from the
MFE and the MAD:
28
29. Causes of fashion
forecast errors
In the absence of good
data, forecasts are set
by whoever is most
vocal, persuasive or
authoritative.
Fashion items are new.
New items, by
definition, have no
sales history. You have
to base your forecast
on the sales history of
similar items.
Tastes are fickle. A
color that sold well
last year may bomb
this year. You have to
judge trends. This
involves guesswork.
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30. Because life cycles are short, you
have little opportunity to correct
for error. If lead times are longer
than the life of an item, you have
no opportunity to re-order from
your supplier.
Fashion merchandise has short life
cycles. You can rarely accumulate
enough sales history to generate a
statistically accurate forecast before
the item’s season has ended.
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Causes of fashion
forecast errors