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Canadian Oil and Gas
BUS 417: Group Presentation
Mahmoud Houshmand
Francis Santos
Ian Graf
November 10, 2004
The Canadian Oil and Gas Industry
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Presentation Overview
 Industry Analysis
 Industry Analysis and Regulation: Ian
 Supply and Demand: Mahmoud
 Oil Extraction and Refining Explained: Francis
 Company Analysis and Recommendations
 Canadian Oil Sands: Mahmoud
 Petro-Canada: Ian
 Suncor: Francis
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3
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Analysis
4
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Analysis Agenda
 Industry Structure
 Products
 Regulation
 Supply and Demand
 Brief Overview of Oil Extraction and Refining
5
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Analysis
 Canadian industry produced $77.5 billion in revenues in 2003
 Canada is 3rd largest producer of natural gas in the world
 9th largest producer of crude oil
 Canadian upstream sector is largest single private investor
6
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Analysis
 In 2003, the industry contributed approx. $16 billion to
government revenues
 Crude oil & natural gas trade surplus responsible for 57% of
the country’s 2003 merchandise trade balance
 Canada responsible for over 20% of North America’s crude oil
and natural gas
 However, we only consume 10%
 Industry’s total 2003 employment impact was measured at
500,000
7
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Structure
 Industry consists mainly of miners & drillers, refiners, and
retailers
 Many businesses take an integrated approach and are
involved in all aspects
 Business is done locally and south of the border; utilize cross-
border pipeline to distribute oil
 Country’s largest source of crude oil is the Canadian Oil
Sands
 American VP Dick Cheney described Canada’s oil sands as a,
”pillar of North American energy and economic security.”
8
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Structure
 Mergers & acquisitions are frequent
 Recent growth in royalty trusts (unit trusts)
 Highly regulated by Canadian government
 Affected by volatile oil prices, interest rate fluctuations,
international events
9
Canadian Oil and Gas
Industry Structure
 Largest Canadian Oil & Gas Companies (in alphabetical
order):
 Albian Sands Energy Inc.
 Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.
 Canadian Oil Sands
 EnCana Corporation
 Husky Energy Inc.
 Imperial Oil Resources Ltd.
 Petro-Canada
 Shell Canada Ltd.
 Suncor Energy Inc.
 Syncrude Canada Ltd.
10
Canadian Oil and Gas
Products
 Crude oil
 Refined to create petroleum gas, gasoline, kerosene, lubricating oil,
industrial fuel, residuals
 Natural gas
 Used commercially, residentially, in fuel cells, building block for methanol
which has many industrial purposes
 Ethanol
 Normally made from fermentation process but is cheaper when
processed from petroleum feedstock
 Green Energy Sources
 Wind energy
11
Canadian Oil and Gas
Regulation
 Four intertwining levels; municipal, provincial, national, &
international
 Constitution Act 1982 gives jurisdiction to provinces over natural
resources
 Natural Energy Board (Fed body) has control over movement of
oil & gas, taxation, and tariffs
 Department of energy collects royalties on behalf of the province
 Companies must adhere to applicable provincial environmental
acts and involve the public in process
 Extraction limits
 OSC requires companies to declare their reserve levels every 90
days
 Controls to reduce emissions  Kyoto Accord
 Sept 11th called for increasing security of pipelines
12
Canadian Oil and Gas
Crude Oil : Supply
 World Crude Oil Production By Region
13
Canadian Oil and Gas
Crude Oil : Demand
14
Canadian Oil and Gas
Crude Oil : Exports
 Crude oil exports have been growing in North America
15
Canadian Oil and Gas
Canadian Crude Oil : Supply
 Second largest crude oil reserves after Saudi Arabia
 Canadian oil sands contains 175 billion barrels of oil reserves
 420,000 barrels of crude have been approved off Canada’s east
coast
16
Canadian Oil and Gas
Canadian Oil Production & Consumption
17
Canadian Oil and Gas
Natural Gas : Reserves
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Natural Gas : Supply
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Natural Gas : Demand
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Refined Products
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Crude Oil Prices
22
Canadian Oil and Gas
Price of Oil Futures: One Year Chart
23
Canadian Oil and Gas
Oil Extraction
 Canadian Oil Sands
1. Mining:
 Oil that is near the surface can extracted using traditional techniques
2. SAGD: Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
 Because of the rising prices of natural gas, crude producers are moving
towards using bitumen or high sulphur fuels to generate steam.
 Natural Gas
 Wells are drilled and gas flows under its own pressure.
24
Canadian Oil and Gas
Oil Refining
 Steps
1. Fractional Distillation
2. Conversion
3. Recombination
4. Treatment
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25
Canadian Oil and Gas
Canadian Oil Sands
26
Canadian Oil and Gas
 Company Background
 Core Business
 Business Strategy
 Hedging Strategy
 Financial Statement Analysis
 Stock Price Performance
 Recommendation
Canadian Oil Sands Agenda
27
Canadian Oil and Gas
Background
 Canadian Oil Sands acts as a middleman between oil producers and
pipeline operators.
 Takes possession of the oil and markets it to pipelines
 Generates income from a 35% interest in the Syncrude operation in
the Alberta Oil Sands.
 Largest pure-play investment opportunity in Oil Sands.
 Organized as an Open-Ended Investment Trust.
 Currently has approximately 91.1 million units outstanding.
 Traded on TSX (Ticker COS.UN)
 Market Capitalization of approximately $5.8 Billion
 Distributions in 2003 totaled $2.00 per unit
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Core Business
 Income trusts are equity investments designed to deliver cash
flows from operations to shareholders in a tax-efficient
manner.
 Reduces double taxation of income.
 Core business is marketing oil from its 31% share of Syncrude
oil.
 Pure-play oil company. Revenues derived solely from selling crude oil.
29
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy
 Expand Syncrude Production Capacity
 Expansion began in 2001.
 Expected to boost current production by 50% to approximately 350,000
barrels per day – 124,000 barrels per day net to Canadian Oil Sands
Trust. based on its interest.
 Product quality will also be enhanced to Syncrude Sweet Premium
(SSP).
 The total capital budget for the expansion is estimated at $7.8 billion, or
approximately $2.8 billion net to the Trust.
 It is expected to be in-service by mid 2006.
30
Canadian Oil and Gas
Corporate Value Drivers
 Increase production capacity from existing assets.
 Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies
of scale and by upgrading process technologies.
 Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new
developments.
31
Canadian Oil and Gas
Reserves
 Very long-life reserves compared to industry
average.
 Thus, disbursements in income trust are quite safe.
32
Canadian Oil and Gas
Factors That Affect Financials
 Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates
 Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets
 New introduction of crude oil supply to North America
 Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins
 Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns
 Oils Sands Alberta Crown Royalties
 Suncor ability to compete for projects
 Extreme cold weather in 4Q
33
Canadian Oil and Gas
Hedging Strategy
 Value of revenues is dependent on:
 Price of crude oil
 Exchange rate with USD
 Interest rate on debt
 Crude Oil Hedging
 Lost $82M in revenues in Q3 2004 ($10.22 per barrel).
 YTD 2004 – have incurred a $182M loss.
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Hedging Strategy (continued)
 Crude Oil Hedging (continued)
 As the funding requirements for expansion diminish (and balance sheet
becomes stronger due to Stage 3 revenues), they intend to reduce crude
oil hedging
 Foreign Exchange Hedging
 Q3 2004 made $3M in foreign exchange hedging ($0.39 per barrel).
 Interest Rate Hedging
 Impact cash flows based on amount of floating rate debt that is
outstanding.
35
Canadian Oil and Gas
Consolidated Balance Sheet
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet Analysis
 The trust increased its capital assets by $2.5 billion during 2003
(stage 3 expansion).
 Capital assets are recorded at cost and include the costs of
acquiring the working interest and subsequent additions to property,
plant, and equipment.
 In February 2003, the trust gained $ 732 million in new equity to
finance a significant portion of the 10 percent working interest in
Syncrude from EnCanca. In July 2003, an additional $220 million
was raised.
 The long term debt increased by $ 810 million.
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Consolidated Statement of Earnings
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement Analysis
 Revenues higher due to increased oil prices.
 Operating expense increased by $ 200 million mainly because
of an unplanned coker turnaround and expended
maintenance work.
 Coker : Vessels in which bitumen, the molasses-like substance that
comprises up to 18% of oil sand, is cracked into its fractions and from
which coke is withdrawn to start the process of converting bitumen to
upgraded crude oil.
 Coker maintenance resulted in a 24 cent increase in operating
cost per barrel in 2003.
 The trust lost $135 million as a result of hedging.
39
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock-based Compensation
 Before Q3 of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands recorded no
compensation costs for unit options granted to its employees
and directors.
 The Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants modified the
rules for stock-based compensation program.
 During the third quarter of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands adopted
the fair-value method of accounting for stock based
compensation.
 Compensation costs of $0.6 million have been included as
Administration expenses in the company’s net income.
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cash Flow
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Cash Flow Statement Analysis
 Free cash flow amount to –2 billion dollars for 2003, due to
the acquisition of Syncrude working interest.
 On February 28, 2003, Canadian Oil Sands closed the acquisition With
EnCana Corporation to purchase an indirect 10 percent working interest
in Suncrude for approximately $1.05 billion cash
 On July 10, 2003, Canadian Oil Sands purchased EnCana’s remaining
3.75 percent interest in Syncrude for $430 million cash
 The acquisition is treated as a purchase of asset under GAAP
 Cash flow from operating activities decreased due to a $147
million foreign exchange loss on long-term debt
42
Canadian Oil and Gas
Canadian Oil
Sands
Present Day
Industry Average
Present Day
Price to Earnings 11.20 21.90
Dividend Yield 3.58% 2.10%
Price to Book 2.01 2.10
Debt to Equity 0.69 0.89
Financial Strength Ratios
43
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Summary
 Traded on TSX
 Symbol: COS.UN
 Current Price $55.79 CDN
 91.1 million units outstanding
 Market Capitalization of approximately $5.1 Billion
Current
Price:
55.79
Change:
-0.61
Open:
56.38
High:
56.38
Low:
55.40
Volume:
311,590
Percent
Change:
-1.08%
Yield:
3.58%
P/E
Ratio:
11.23
52 Week Range:
38.65 to 65.65
44
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance: One Year Chart
45
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance: Five Year Chart
46
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance Vs.
Oil & Gas Index: One Year Chart
47
Canadian Oil and Gas
Recommendation
BUY
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48
Canadian Oil and Gas
Petro-Canada
49
Canadian Oil and Gas
Petro-Canada Agenda
 Company Background
 Management Team and Executive Compensation
 Core Business Units
 Business Strategy
 Corporate Value Drivers
 Reserves
 Hedging Strategy
 Financial Statement Analysis
 Stock Price Performance
 Recommendation
50
Canadian Oil and Gas
Company Background
 Petro-Canada was established in 1975 as a Crown
Corporation
 Privatized in 1991; final government stake sold in September 2004
 One of Canada’s largest integrated oil and gas companies
 Produces 464,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (2003)
 Earnings from operations (2003): $1.6 Billion
 More than 4,500 employees across Canada and internationally
 Publicly traded on TSX (PCA) and NYSE (PCZ)
 Stock price of $63.60 (Friday close)
 262,100,000 shares outstanding
 Net capitalization exceeding $16 Billion
 Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta *All dollar figures in CDN dollars
51
Canadian Oil and Gas
Management Team
 Ron A. Brenneman, President & CEO.
 CEO since 2000. Over 30 years of experience in the oil industry. Past
CEO of Esso Benelux and past president of Imperial Oil.
 Harry Roberts, Senior VP & CFO.
 15 years experience with Petro-Canada and 15 years experience
working in the financial industry.
 Kathleen E. Sendall, Senior VP for North American Gas.
 Over 25 years experience with Petro-Canada.
 Gordon Carrick, VP for East Coast Oil.
 Over 25 years experience in the oil industry; 23 with Petro-Canada.
 Brant Sangster, Senior VP for Oil Sands.
 Over 35 years experience in the oil industry; over 20 with Petro-Canada.
52
Canadian Oil and Gas
Management Team (continued)
 Peter S. Kallos, Executive VP for International.
 Over 20 years experience in the oil industry. Joined Petro-Canada in
2003.
 Boris Jackman, Executive VP for Downstream.
 Over 10 years experience with Petro-Canada.
 Common thread amongst senior management is their
extensive experience with the company.
 Philip Fisher’s Four Dimensions - The “People Factor”
 “Attention must be paid to attracting competent managers at lower levels
and to training them for larger responsibilities. Succession should largely
be from the available talent pool.” (p. 379)
53
Canadian Oil and Gas
Executive Compensation
 Base salary
 Competitive pay based on comparator group of companies.
 Annual performance incentives
 Based on degree of achievement of specific predetermined corporate,
business unit, and individual objectives.
 Executives may choose to receive all or part of incentive in stock.
 Stock options
 Annual awards of stock options link compensation to creation of
shareholder value.
“During the fourth quarter of 2003, the Company elected to begin prospectively expensing,
effective January 1, 2003, the value of stock options pursuant to transitional accounting
provisions. As a result, the fair value of stock options granted during 2003 is being charged
to earnings over the vesting period with a corresponding increase in contributed surplus.
The effect of this change for the year ended December 31, 2003 was a decrease in net
earnings of $9 million.”
54
Canadian Oil and Gas
Executive Compensation (continued)
55
Canadian Oil and Gas
Executive Compensation (continued)
56
Canadian Oil and Gas
Core Businesses Units
 North American Gas
 Explores for, produces, and markets natural gas.
 Exploration operations in Western Canada (Alberta, Northeastern BC).
 Produces 132,300 BOE per day (28% of company total)
 East Coast Oil
 Explores for, produces, and markets oil from offshore Newfoundland
(Terra Nova, Hibernia).
 Produces 86,100 BOE per day (19%)
 Oil Sands
 Heavily involved in Alberta’s oil sands.
 100% interest in the MacKay River operation and 12% interest in
Syncrude operation.
 Produces 36,100 BOE per day (8%)
57
Canadian Oil and Gas
Core Businesses Units (continued)
 International
 Explores for, produces, and markets oil and natural gas from Northwest
Europe, North Africa/Near East, and Northern Latin America.
 Produces 210,000 BOE per day (45%)
 Downstream Operations
 Refining
 Converts crude oil into refined products (gas, diesel, lubricants).
 Controls 17% of Canada’s refining capacity.
 Marketing
 Markets petroleum products and services nationwide in Petro-Canada service
stations.
 Second largest marketer of refined petroleum in Canada (17% market share).
58
Canadian Oil and Gas
Contribution of Business Units
(Production - BOE/d)
International
45%
North American
Natural Gas
28%
East Coast Oil
19%
Oil Sands
8%
59
Canadian Oil and Gas
Contribution of Business Units
(Earnings)
East Coast Oil
36%
North American
Natural Gas
31%
International
18%
Downstream
Operations
15%
*In 2003 the Oil Sands business earned a loss of 50M (–3%)
60
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy
 North American Gas: Strategic Goals
 Maximize profitability in Western Canadian properties by increasing
exploration and drilling in core areas.
 Future Action: Focus exploration and drilling in core areas.
 Pursue high-potential exploration plays such as the Mackenzie Delta,
Alaska, and offshore Nova Scotia.
 Future Action: Continue to evaluate Mackenzie Delta and Alaska properties in
preparation for future pipeline construction.
 Pursue market expansion into liquefied natural gas (LNG)
 Future Action: Commence construction on LNG facility in Cacouna, PQ;
agreement to import LNG from Russia
61
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy (continued)
 East Coast Oil: Strategic Goals
 Expand oil production base in offshore Newfoundland.
 Future Action: Continue evaluating growth opportunities in Terra Nova and
Hibernia.
 Pursue high-potential exploration plays
 Future Action: Continue White Rose development, targeting start-up in early
2006.
62
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy (continued)
 Oil Sands: Strategic Goals
 Continue developing reserves as market condition evolve.
 Expand Syncrude operations.
 Future Action: Continue third phase of Syncrude expansion.
 Expand and upgrade refining capabilities.
 Future Action: Commence improvement of Edmonton refinery from
conventional crude oil refinery to bitumen refinery.
 International: Strategic Goals
 Continue developing existing International reserves.
 Future Action: Continue exploration in the U.K./Netherlands North Sea.
 Target new theatres of operations.
 Future Action: Where attractive, bid on Middle East developments.
 Downstream Operations: Strategic Goals
 Focus on generating superior returns by leveraging brand strength
63
Canadian Oil and Gas
Corporate Value Drivers
 Increase production capacity from existing assets.
 Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies
of scale and by upgrading process technologies.
 Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new
developments.
64
Canadian Oil and Gas
Reserves
 Evaluating natural resource companies must
take into account their ability to replenish
their assets.
 Petro-Canada boasts 1.220 Billion BOE in
proven reserves.
 At current production this will last 7 years.
65
Canadian Oil and Gas
 Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates
 Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets
 New introduction of crude oil supply to North America
 Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins
 Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns
 Oil Sands Alberta Crown Royalties
 Ability to compete for projects
 Extreme cold weather in 4Q
 Cannot produce in very cold temperature
Factors that Affect Financials
66
Canadian Oil and Gas
Hedging Strategy
 Commodity Prices
 Significant risk exposure to price of crude oil and natural gas.
 Petro-Canada typically does not hedge this exposure.
 Foreign Exchange
 Petro-Canada’s expense and revenue streams are highly affected by the
CDN/USD exchange rate
 Partially offset because of integrated business; however, earnings are
negatively affected by the strengthening CDN dollar.
 Petro-Canada does not hedge this currency exposure.
67
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet
68
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet (continued)
 Assets
 Increase in cash on hand by $400M; sign that company is not rushing into
imprudent investments.
 Property, plant, and equipment form more than two-thirds of asset value.
 Very capital intensive.
 Goodwill increased due to the acquisition of International oil and gas
produced Veba Oil & Gas GmbH.
69
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet (continued)
 Liabilities
 Current portion of long-term debt decreased by $350 million
 Overall long-term debt decreased by $500 million
 Cancelled loans outstanding to provide acquisition credit for Veba Oil & Gas GmbH.
 Also, this is a sign that the company is plowing exceptional earnings into actively
recalling debt.
70
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet (continued)
 Equity
 Increased by $2 Billion in 2003; almost all attributable to increase in retained
earnings
 Retained earnings increased by $1.5 Billion dollars per quarter.
 Since dividends increased as well (from $0.10 to $0.15 per share), we know
that the increase in retained earnings is due to higher profits
71
Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement
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Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement (continued)
 Revenue
 Dramatic increase in revenues from 2002 to 2003.
 Expanded operations
 Higher oil prices
 YTD 2004 revenues are $10,880M.
 Expenses
 Crude oil purchases (sell their own crude oil, buyback crude oil for
refining closer to distribution points).
 Exploration expense decreased slightly year-over-year.
 Earnings
 Increase in net earnings and EPS is a function of high oil prices in
conjunction with the fact that Petro-Canada does not hedge commodity
prices.
73
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cash Flows
74
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cash Flows (continued)
 Property, Plant, and Equipment
 Spent $500M on PPE during 2003 – large increase in International
investment
75
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cash Flows (continued)
 Free Cash Flow: CFO – CFI
 YTD 2004 FCF negative due to acquisition of Prima Energy
Corporation ($644M).
 2002 FCF negative due to acquisition of Veba Oil & Gas GmbH
(spent $2.2 Billion)
 Growth of acquisition helped fuel high cash flow in 2003
YTD 2004 2003 2002 2001
Free Cash Flow -$239 $1,005 -$2,107 $275
76
Canadian Oil and Gas
Petro-Canada
Present Day
Industry Average
Present Day
Price to Earnings 11.90 21.90
Dividend Yield 0.94% 2.10%
Price to Book 2.14 2.10
Debt to Equity 0.30 0.89
Earnings per Share 5.63 4.30
Financial Strength Ratios
77
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Summary
 Stock Price (Friday Close)
 $63.60 CDN (TSX)
 $53.10 USD (NYSE)
 TSX Data for Friday, November 5th
 Last Traded: $63.60
 Net Change: -$0.74 (-1.15%)
 Volume: 1,858,222
 52 Week High: $70.40
 52 Week Low: $54.50
78
Canadian Oil and Gas
Volume 1,913,600 P/E 11.90
52-Week High 70.400 Indicated
Annual Div.
0.60
52-Week Low 53.800 Yield 0.94
C$ 63.600
Net Change:
C$ -1.150 % Change: -1.15%
Stock Price Summary (continued)
79
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance: One Year Chart
*Based on TSX Data (CDN dollars)
80
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance: Five Year Chart
*Based on TSX Data (CDN dollars)
81
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance Vs.
Oil & Gas Index: One Year Chart
*Based on NYSE Data (PCZ and Oil & Gas Index)
82
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance Vs.
S&P 500: One Year Chart
*Based on NYSE Data (PCZ and S&P 500)
83
Canadian Oil and Gas
Recommendation
BUY
84
84
Canadian Oil and Gas
Suncor Energy
85
Canadian Oil and Gas
SunCor Agenda
 Company Background
 Management Team
 Core Business Segments
 Business Strategy
 Corporate Value Drivers
 Reserves
 Hedging Strategy
 Financial Statement Analysis
 Stock Price Performance
 Recommendation
86
Canadian Oil and Gas
Company Background
 Suncor Energy is an integrated energy company.
 Formed in 1979 as a result of an amalgamation of several operations.
 Focused on developing the Athabasca Oil Sands: one of the
world’s largest petroleum resource basins.
 2004 YTD earnings are $337 million.
 Produces 264,900 barrels of oil per day
 4,000 employees
 Listed on both the TSX and NYSE (Ticker SU).
 $39.88 CDN per share (Tues close)
 453,420,617 shares outstanding
 Net capitalization exceeding $18 Billion CDN
 Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta.
87
Canadian Oil and Gas
Management Team
 Richard L. George, President and CEO
 23 years experience at Suncor; 13 years as CEO.
 J. Kenneth Alley, Sr. VP and CFO
 19 years experience at Suncor.
 Steven W. Williams, Exec. VP, Oil Sands
 Over 20 years of international energy industry experience.
 David W. Byler, Exec. VP, Natural Gas & Renewable Energy
 24 years experience at Suncor.
 Thomas L. Ryley, Exec. VP, Energy Marketing and Refining
 20 years experience at Suncor.
 M. (Mike) Ashar, Exec. VP, Refining and Marketing USA
 16 years experience at Suncor. Previous experience with Petro-Canada.
88
Canadian Oil and Gas
Management Compensation
89
Canadian Oil and Gas
Core Business Segments
 Oil Sands
 Operating in Canada’s Athabasca Oil Sands, Alberta
 Oil is part of bitumen; can be extracted by mining and by in-situ (onsite)
 Surface mines produce majority of crude oil but in-situ processes are
expanding
 Natural Gas
 Extracted through pressurized wells
 Energy Marketing & Refining (Canada)
 Refine bitumen feedstock and natural gas and market it to customers in
Ontario, Quebec, Northeastern USA
 Sunoco chain of service stations in Ontario
 Refinery based in Sarnia, Ontario
90
Canadian Oil and Gas
Core Business Segments (continued)
 Energy Marketing & Refining (USA)
 In August 2003, Suncor acquired a Denver refinery and 43 Phillips 66
service stations.
 Expansion gives Suncor greater ability to move oil products to
American markets.
 Renewable Energy
 Two projects in Canada
91
Canadian Oil and Gas
Contribution of Business Units
(Earnings)
Oil Sands
81%
Natural Gas & Renewable
Energy
12%
Energy Marketing &
Refining (Canada)
5%
Energy Marketing &
Refining (USA)
2%
92
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy
 Athabasca Oil Sands
 Next major goal is a targeted production capacity of 260,000 bpd by
late 2005
 Focus on efficient operations and management to maintain low crude
oil production costs
 Suncor continually will pursue new technology that will reduce
operating costs and environmental impact
- Expanding oil sands operation is a priority
- Planned 2007 expansion of Steepbank Mine, Fort McMurray, Alberta
- Expansion of the second upgrader along with a third one on 2010
- Maintain oil sands cash operating costs at an annual average of
$10.75 to $11.75 per barrel
93
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy (continued)
 Natural Gas
 Suncor has found a solution to deal with high natural gas prices
 Strategy is to exceed natural gas purchases for internal consumption
 Functions as a price hedge
 Energy Marketing & Refining (Canada)
 Project Genesis: Sarnia refinery is investing in equipment to produce
lower sulphur diesel
 Helps to increase company’s ability to manufacture environmentally
friendlier products to meet demand
 Energy Marketing & Refining (USA)
 Looking to further integrate products and services within the US,
branching out from Denver, Colorado.
94
Canadian Oil and Gas
Business Strategy (continued)
95
Canadian Oil and Gas
Corporate Value Drivers
 Increase production capacity from existing assets.
 Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies
of scale and by upgrading process technologies.
 Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new
developments.
 Be a first-mover in new energy technologies such as wind.
96
Canadian Oil and Gas
Reserves
 Company has an estimated 12 billion barrels of crude on hand
that can be refined to produce approximately 10 billion barrels
of oil.
 At current production this will last 10 years.
97
Canadian Oil and Gas
Factors That Affect Financials
 Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates
 Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets
 New introduction of crude oil supply to North America
 Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins
 Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns
 Oils Sands Alberta Crown Royalties
 Ability to compete for projects
 Extreme cold weather in 4Q
98
Canadian Oil and Gas
Hedging Strategy
 Commodity Hedging Activities
 Company utilizes commodity based forwards, futures, swaps and
options.
 Board authorized the hedging of 35% of crude oil volume in 2004 and
up to 30% for 2005-2007.
 In 2003, hedging reduced net earnings by $155 million.
 As of Q1, 2004, the BoD suspended the crude oil hedging program and
no new contracts were entered in Q2 or Q3.
 Financial Hedging Activities
 Employs interest rate and cross-currency swaps
 Interest rate swaps involve the exchange of floating rate and fixed rate
interest payments
 Cross-currency swaps involve the exchange of CDN dollar interest
payments and US dollar interest payments, and an exchange of the
principal amounts at the maturity date of the underlying security.
99
Canadian Oil and Gas
Hedging Strategy
100
Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement
101
Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement (continued)
102
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet
103
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet (continued)
 $1 Billion increase in PPE during 2003 due to acquisitions
104
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet (continued)
 Retained earnings went up by $ 1 billion and dividends have
remained fairly stable
 We can infer that Suncor is pumping most of their money back
into the company
105
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cashflows
106
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cash Flows (continued)
 Free Cash Flow: CFO – CFI
 2003 FCF fell from 2002 due to investment in new refinery and new
retail stations & business
 2001 FCF negative due to a large restructuring of natural gas
business
 YTD 2004 FCF was not as drastically improved by high oil prices
because Suncor invested a large amount in upgrading and
expanding their extraction and refining operations as well as opening
a new wind power facility
YTD 2004 2003 2002 2001
Free Cash Flow $338 $516 $595 -$868
107
Canadian Oil and Gas
Financial Strength Ratios
SunCor
Present Day
Industry Average
Present Day
Price to Earnings 16.50 21.90
Dividend Yield 0.60% 2.10%
Price to Book 3.94 2.10
Debt to Equity 0.51 0.89
Earnings per Share 2.42 4.30
108
Canadian Oil and Gas
Income Statement YTD
109
Canadian Oil and Gas
Balance Sheet YTD
110
Canadian Oil and Gas
Statement of Cashflows YTD
111
Canadian Oil and Gas
Volume 617, 100 P/E 16.40
52-Week High 44.49 Indicated
Annual Div.
0.24
52-Week Low 27.00 Yield 0.60
C$ 39.68
Net Change:
C$ -0.02 % Change: -0.5%
Stock Price Summary (continued)
112
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance:
One Year Chart (TSX)
113
Canadian Oil and Gas
Stock Price Performance:
Five Year Chart (TSX)
114
Canadian Oil and Gas
Recommendation
BUY
115
115
Canadian Oil and Gas
Summary
116
Canadian Oil and Gas
Summary
BUY
BUY
BUY
117
Canadian Oil and Gas
Questions

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CanOandG_043.ppt

  • 1. 1 1 Canadian Oil and Gas BUS 417: Group Presentation Mahmoud Houshmand Francis Santos Ian Graf November 10, 2004 The Canadian Oil and Gas Industry
  • 2. 2 Canadian Oil and Gas Presentation Overview  Industry Analysis  Industry Analysis and Regulation: Ian  Supply and Demand: Mahmoud  Oil Extraction and Refining Explained: Francis  Company Analysis and Recommendations  Canadian Oil Sands: Mahmoud  Petro-Canada: Ian  Suncor: Francis
  • 3. 3 3 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Analysis
  • 4. 4 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Analysis Agenda  Industry Structure  Products  Regulation  Supply and Demand  Brief Overview of Oil Extraction and Refining
  • 5. 5 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Analysis  Canadian industry produced $77.5 billion in revenues in 2003  Canada is 3rd largest producer of natural gas in the world  9th largest producer of crude oil  Canadian upstream sector is largest single private investor
  • 6. 6 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Analysis  In 2003, the industry contributed approx. $16 billion to government revenues  Crude oil & natural gas trade surplus responsible for 57% of the country’s 2003 merchandise trade balance  Canada responsible for over 20% of North America’s crude oil and natural gas  However, we only consume 10%  Industry’s total 2003 employment impact was measured at 500,000
  • 7. 7 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Structure  Industry consists mainly of miners & drillers, refiners, and retailers  Many businesses take an integrated approach and are involved in all aspects  Business is done locally and south of the border; utilize cross- border pipeline to distribute oil  Country’s largest source of crude oil is the Canadian Oil Sands  American VP Dick Cheney described Canada’s oil sands as a, ”pillar of North American energy and economic security.”
  • 8. 8 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Structure  Mergers & acquisitions are frequent  Recent growth in royalty trusts (unit trusts)  Highly regulated by Canadian government  Affected by volatile oil prices, interest rate fluctuations, international events
  • 9. 9 Canadian Oil and Gas Industry Structure  Largest Canadian Oil & Gas Companies (in alphabetical order):  Albian Sands Energy Inc.  Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.  Canadian Oil Sands  EnCana Corporation  Husky Energy Inc.  Imperial Oil Resources Ltd.  Petro-Canada  Shell Canada Ltd.  Suncor Energy Inc.  Syncrude Canada Ltd.
  • 10. 10 Canadian Oil and Gas Products  Crude oil  Refined to create petroleum gas, gasoline, kerosene, lubricating oil, industrial fuel, residuals  Natural gas  Used commercially, residentially, in fuel cells, building block for methanol which has many industrial purposes  Ethanol  Normally made from fermentation process but is cheaper when processed from petroleum feedstock  Green Energy Sources  Wind energy
  • 11. 11 Canadian Oil and Gas Regulation  Four intertwining levels; municipal, provincial, national, & international  Constitution Act 1982 gives jurisdiction to provinces over natural resources  Natural Energy Board (Fed body) has control over movement of oil & gas, taxation, and tariffs  Department of energy collects royalties on behalf of the province  Companies must adhere to applicable provincial environmental acts and involve the public in process  Extraction limits  OSC requires companies to declare their reserve levels every 90 days  Controls to reduce emissions  Kyoto Accord  Sept 11th called for increasing security of pipelines
  • 12. 12 Canadian Oil and Gas Crude Oil : Supply  World Crude Oil Production By Region
  • 13. 13 Canadian Oil and Gas Crude Oil : Demand
  • 14. 14 Canadian Oil and Gas Crude Oil : Exports  Crude oil exports have been growing in North America
  • 15. 15 Canadian Oil and Gas Canadian Crude Oil : Supply  Second largest crude oil reserves after Saudi Arabia  Canadian oil sands contains 175 billion barrels of oil reserves  420,000 barrels of crude have been approved off Canada’s east coast
  • 16. 16 Canadian Oil and Gas Canadian Oil Production & Consumption
  • 17. 17 Canadian Oil and Gas Natural Gas : Reserves
  • 18. 18 Canadian Oil and Gas Natural Gas : Supply
  • 19. 19 Canadian Oil and Gas Natural Gas : Demand
  • 20. 20 Canadian Oil and Gas Refined Products
  • 21. 21 Canadian Oil and Gas Crude Oil Prices
  • 22. 22 Canadian Oil and Gas Price of Oil Futures: One Year Chart
  • 23. 23 Canadian Oil and Gas Oil Extraction  Canadian Oil Sands 1. Mining:  Oil that is near the surface can extracted using traditional techniques 2. SAGD: Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage  Because of the rising prices of natural gas, crude producers are moving towards using bitumen or high sulphur fuels to generate steam.  Natural Gas  Wells are drilled and gas flows under its own pressure.
  • 24. 24 Canadian Oil and Gas Oil Refining  Steps 1. Fractional Distillation 2. Conversion 3. Recombination 4. Treatment
  • 25. 25 25 Canadian Oil and Gas Canadian Oil Sands
  • 26. 26 Canadian Oil and Gas  Company Background  Core Business  Business Strategy  Hedging Strategy  Financial Statement Analysis  Stock Price Performance  Recommendation Canadian Oil Sands Agenda
  • 27. 27 Canadian Oil and Gas Background  Canadian Oil Sands acts as a middleman between oil producers and pipeline operators.  Takes possession of the oil and markets it to pipelines  Generates income from a 35% interest in the Syncrude operation in the Alberta Oil Sands.  Largest pure-play investment opportunity in Oil Sands.  Organized as an Open-Ended Investment Trust.  Currently has approximately 91.1 million units outstanding.  Traded on TSX (Ticker COS.UN)  Market Capitalization of approximately $5.8 Billion  Distributions in 2003 totaled $2.00 per unit
  • 28. 28 Canadian Oil and Gas Core Business  Income trusts are equity investments designed to deliver cash flows from operations to shareholders in a tax-efficient manner.  Reduces double taxation of income.  Core business is marketing oil from its 31% share of Syncrude oil.  Pure-play oil company. Revenues derived solely from selling crude oil.
  • 29. 29 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy  Expand Syncrude Production Capacity  Expansion began in 2001.  Expected to boost current production by 50% to approximately 350,000 barrels per day – 124,000 barrels per day net to Canadian Oil Sands Trust. based on its interest.  Product quality will also be enhanced to Syncrude Sweet Premium (SSP).  The total capital budget for the expansion is estimated at $7.8 billion, or approximately $2.8 billion net to the Trust.  It is expected to be in-service by mid 2006.
  • 30. 30 Canadian Oil and Gas Corporate Value Drivers  Increase production capacity from existing assets.  Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies of scale and by upgrading process technologies.  Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new developments.
  • 31. 31 Canadian Oil and Gas Reserves  Very long-life reserves compared to industry average.  Thus, disbursements in income trust are quite safe.
  • 32. 32 Canadian Oil and Gas Factors That Affect Financials  Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates  Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets  New introduction of crude oil supply to North America  Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins  Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns  Oils Sands Alberta Crown Royalties  Suncor ability to compete for projects  Extreme cold weather in 4Q
  • 33. 33 Canadian Oil and Gas Hedging Strategy  Value of revenues is dependent on:  Price of crude oil  Exchange rate with USD  Interest rate on debt  Crude Oil Hedging  Lost $82M in revenues in Q3 2004 ($10.22 per barrel).  YTD 2004 – have incurred a $182M loss.
  • 34. 34 Canadian Oil and Gas Hedging Strategy (continued)  Crude Oil Hedging (continued)  As the funding requirements for expansion diminish (and balance sheet becomes stronger due to Stage 3 revenues), they intend to reduce crude oil hedging  Foreign Exchange Hedging  Q3 2004 made $3M in foreign exchange hedging ($0.39 per barrel).  Interest Rate Hedging  Impact cash flows based on amount of floating rate debt that is outstanding.
  • 35. 35 Canadian Oil and Gas Consolidated Balance Sheet
  • 36. 36 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet Analysis  The trust increased its capital assets by $2.5 billion during 2003 (stage 3 expansion).  Capital assets are recorded at cost and include the costs of acquiring the working interest and subsequent additions to property, plant, and equipment.  In February 2003, the trust gained $ 732 million in new equity to finance a significant portion of the 10 percent working interest in Syncrude from EnCanca. In July 2003, an additional $220 million was raised.  The long term debt increased by $ 810 million.
  • 37. 37 Canadian Oil and Gas Consolidated Statement of Earnings
  • 38. 38 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement Analysis  Revenues higher due to increased oil prices.  Operating expense increased by $ 200 million mainly because of an unplanned coker turnaround and expended maintenance work.  Coker : Vessels in which bitumen, the molasses-like substance that comprises up to 18% of oil sand, is cracked into its fractions and from which coke is withdrawn to start the process of converting bitumen to upgraded crude oil.  Coker maintenance resulted in a 24 cent increase in operating cost per barrel in 2003.  The trust lost $135 million as a result of hedging.
  • 39. 39 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock-based Compensation  Before Q3 of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands recorded no compensation costs for unit options granted to its employees and directors.  The Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants modified the rules for stock-based compensation program.  During the third quarter of 2003, Canadian Oil Sands adopted the fair-value method of accounting for stock based compensation.  Compensation costs of $0.6 million have been included as Administration expenses in the company’s net income.
  • 40. 40 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cash Flow
  • 41. 41 Canadian Oil and Gas Cash Flow Statement Analysis  Free cash flow amount to –2 billion dollars for 2003, due to the acquisition of Syncrude working interest.  On February 28, 2003, Canadian Oil Sands closed the acquisition With EnCana Corporation to purchase an indirect 10 percent working interest in Suncrude for approximately $1.05 billion cash  On July 10, 2003, Canadian Oil Sands purchased EnCana’s remaining 3.75 percent interest in Syncrude for $430 million cash  The acquisition is treated as a purchase of asset under GAAP  Cash flow from operating activities decreased due to a $147 million foreign exchange loss on long-term debt
  • 42. 42 Canadian Oil and Gas Canadian Oil Sands Present Day Industry Average Present Day Price to Earnings 11.20 21.90 Dividend Yield 3.58% 2.10% Price to Book 2.01 2.10 Debt to Equity 0.69 0.89 Financial Strength Ratios
  • 43. 43 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Summary  Traded on TSX  Symbol: COS.UN  Current Price $55.79 CDN  91.1 million units outstanding  Market Capitalization of approximately $5.1 Billion Current Price: 55.79 Change: -0.61 Open: 56.38 High: 56.38 Low: 55.40 Volume: 311,590 Percent Change: -1.08% Yield: 3.58% P/E Ratio: 11.23 52 Week Range: 38.65 to 65.65
  • 44. 44 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: One Year Chart
  • 45. 45 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: Five Year Chart
  • 46. 46 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance Vs. Oil & Gas Index: One Year Chart
  • 47. 47 Canadian Oil and Gas Recommendation BUY
  • 48. 48 48 Canadian Oil and Gas Petro-Canada
  • 49. 49 Canadian Oil and Gas Petro-Canada Agenda  Company Background  Management Team and Executive Compensation  Core Business Units  Business Strategy  Corporate Value Drivers  Reserves  Hedging Strategy  Financial Statement Analysis  Stock Price Performance  Recommendation
  • 50. 50 Canadian Oil and Gas Company Background  Petro-Canada was established in 1975 as a Crown Corporation  Privatized in 1991; final government stake sold in September 2004  One of Canada’s largest integrated oil and gas companies  Produces 464,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (2003)  Earnings from operations (2003): $1.6 Billion  More than 4,500 employees across Canada and internationally  Publicly traded on TSX (PCA) and NYSE (PCZ)  Stock price of $63.60 (Friday close)  262,100,000 shares outstanding  Net capitalization exceeding $16 Billion  Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta *All dollar figures in CDN dollars
  • 51. 51 Canadian Oil and Gas Management Team  Ron A. Brenneman, President & CEO.  CEO since 2000. Over 30 years of experience in the oil industry. Past CEO of Esso Benelux and past president of Imperial Oil.  Harry Roberts, Senior VP & CFO.  15 years experience with Petro-Canada and 15 years experience working in the financial industry.  Kathleen E. Sendall, Senior VP for North American Gas.  Over 25 years experience with Petro-Canada.  Gordon Carrick, VP for East Coast Oil.  Over 25 years experience in the oil industry; 23 with Petro-Canada.  Brant Sangster, Senior VP for Oil Sands.  Over 35 years experience in the oil industry; over 20 with Petro-Canada.
  • 52. 52 Canadian Oil and Gas Management Team (continued)  Peter S. Kallos, Executive VP for International.  Over 20 years experience in the oil industry. Joined Petro-Canada in 2003.  Boris Jackman, Executive VP for Downstream.  Over 10 years experience with Petro-Canada.  Common thread amongst senior management is their extensive experience with the company.  Philip Fisher’s Four Dimensions - The “People Factor”  “Attention must be paid to attracting competent managers at lower levels and to training them for larger responsibilities. Succession should largely be from the available talent pool.” (p. 379)
  • 53. 53 Canadian Oil and Gas Executive Compensation  Base salary  Competitive pay based on comparator group of companies.  Annual performance incentives  Based on degree of achievement of specific predetermined corporate, business unit, and individual objectives.  Executives may choose to receive all or part of incentive in stock.  Stock options  Annual awards of stock options link compensation to creation of shareholder value. “During the fourth quarter of 2003, the Company elected to begin prospectively expensing, effective January 1, 2003, the value of stock options pursuant to transitional accounting provisions. As a result, the fair value of stock options granted during 2003 is being charged to earnings over the vesting period with a corresponding increase in contributed surplus. The effect of this change for the year ended December 31, 2003 was a decrease in net earnings of $9 million.”
  • 54. 54 Canadian Oil and Gas Executive Compensation (continued)
  • 55. 55 Canadian Oil and Gas Executive Compensation (continued)
  • 56. 56 Canadian Oil and Gas Core Businesses Units  North American Gas  Explores for, produces, and markets natural gas.  Exploration operations in Western Canada (Alberta, Northeastern BC).  Produces 132,300 BOE per day (28% of company total)  East Coast Oil  Explores for, produces, and markets oil from offshore Newfoundland (Terra Nova, Hibernia).  Produces 86,100 BOE per day (19%)  Oil Sands  Heavily involved in Alberta’s oil sands.  100% interest in the MacKay River operation and 12% interest in Syncrude operation.  Produces 36,100 BOE per day (8%)
  • 57. 57 Canadian Oil and Gas Core Businesses Units (continued)  International  Explores for, produces, and markets oil and natural gas from Northwest Europe, North Africa/Near East, and Northern Latin America.  Produces 210,000 BOE per day (45%)  Downstream Operations  Refining  Converts crude oil into refined products (gas, diesel, lubricants).  Controls 17% of Canada’s refining capacity.  Marketing  Markets petroleum products and services nationwide in Petro-Canada service stations.  Second largest marketer of refined petroleum in Canada (17% market share).
  • 58. 58 Canadian Oil and Gas Contribution of Business Units (Production - BOE/d) International 45% North American Natural Gas 28% East Coast Oil 19% Oil Sands 8%
  • 59. 59 Canadian Oil and Gas Contribution of Business Units (Earnings) East Coast Oil 36% North American Natural Gas 31% International 18% Downstream Operations 15% *In 2003 the Oil Sands business earned a loss of 50M (–3%)
  • 60. 60 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy  North American Gas: Strategic Goals  Maximize profitability in Western Canadian properties by increasing exploration and drilling in core areas.  Future Action: Focus exploration and drilling in core areas.  Pursue high-potential exploration plays such as the Mackenzie Delta, Alaska, and offshore Nova Scotia.  Future Action: Continue to evaluate Mackenzie Delta and Alaska properties in preparation for future pipeline construction.  Pursue market expansion into liquefied natural gas (LNG)  Future Action: Commence construction on LNG facility in Cacouna, PQ; agreement to import LNG from Russia
  • 61. 61 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy (continued)  East Coast Oil: Strategic Goals  Expand oil production base in offshore Newfoundland.  Future Action: Continue evaluating growth opportunities in Terra Nova and Hibernia.  Pursue high-potential exploration plays  Future Action: Continue White Rose development, targeting start-up in early 2006.
  • 62. 62 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy (continued)  Oil Sands: Strategic Goals  Continue developing reserves as market condition evolve.  Expand Syncrude operations.  Future Action: Continue third phase of Syncrude expansion.  Expand and upgrade refining capabilities.  Future Action: Commence improvement of Edmonton refinery from conventional crude oil refinery to bitumen refinery.  International: Strategic Goals  Continue developing existing International reserves.  Future Action: Continue exploration in the U.K./Netherlands North Sea.  Target new theatres of operations.  Future Action: Where attractive, bid on Middle East developments.  Downstream Operations: Strategic Goals  Focus on generating superior returns by leveraging brand strength
  • 63. 63 Canadian Oil and Gas Corporate Value Drivers  Increase production capacity from existing assets.  Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies of scale and by upgrading process technologies.  Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new developments.
  • 64. 64 Canadian Oil and Gas Reserves  Evaluating natural resource companies must take into account their ability to replenish their assets.  Petro-Canada boasts 1.220 Billion BOE in proven reserves.  At current production this will last 7 years.
  • 65. 65 Canadian Oil and Gas  Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates  Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets  New introduction of crude oil supply to North America  Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins  Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns  Oil Sands Alberta Crown Royalties  Ability to compete for projects  Extreme cold weather in 4Q  Cannot produce in very cold temperature Factors that Affect Financials
  • 66. 66 Canadian Oil and Gas Hedging Strategy  Commodity Prices  Significant risk exposure to price of crude oil and natural gas.  Petro-Canada typically does not hedge this exposure.  Foreign Exchange  Petro-Canada’s expense and revenue streams are highly affected by the CDN/USD exchange rate  Partially offset because of integrated business; however, earnings are negatively affected by the strengthening CDN dollar.  Petro-Canada does not hedge this currency exposure.
  • 67. 67 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet
  • 68. 68 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet (continued)  Assets  Increase in cash on hand by $400M; sign that company is not rushing into imprudent investments.  Property, plant, and equipment form more than two-thirds of asset value.  Very capital intensive.  Goodwill increased due to the acquisition of International oil and gas produced Veba Oil & Gas GmbH.
  • 69. 69 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet (continued)  Liabilities  Current portion of long-term debt decreased by $350 million  Overall long-term debt decreased by $500 million  Cancelled loans outstanding to provide acquisition credit for Veba Oil & Gas GmbH.  Also, this is a sign that the company is plowing exceptional earnings into actively recalling debt.
  • 70. 70 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet (continued)  Equity  Increased by $2 Billion in 2003; almost all attributable to increase in retained earnings  Retained earnings increased by $1.5 Billion dollars per quarter.  Since dividends increased as well (from $0.10 to $0.15 per share), we know that the increase in retained earnings is due to higher profits
  • 71. 71 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement
  • 72. 72 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement (continued)  Revenue  Dramatic increase in revenues from 2002 to 2003.  Expanded operations  Higher oil prices  YTD 2004 revenues are $10,880M.  Expenses  Crude oil purchases (sell their own crude oil, buyback crude oil for refining closer to distribution points).  Exploration expense decreased slightly year-over-year.  Earnings  Increase in net earnings and EPS is a function of high oil prices in conjunction with the fact that Petro-Canada does not hedge commodity prices.
  • 73. 73 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cash Flows
  • 74. 74 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cash Flows (continued)  Property, Plant, and Equipment  Spent $500M on PPE during 2003 – large increase in International investment
  • 75. 75 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cash Flows (continued)  Free Cash Flow: CFO – CFI  YTD 2004 FCF negative due to acquisition of Prima Energy Corporation ($644M).  2002 FCF negative due to acquisition of Veba Oil & Gas GmbH (spent $2.2 Billion)  Growth of acquisition helped fuel high cash flow in 2003 YTD 2004 2003 2002 2001 Free Cash Flow -$239 $1,005 -$2,107 $275
  • 76. 76 Canadian Oil and Gas Petro-Canada Present Day Industry Average Present Day Price to Earnings 11.90 21.90 Dividend Yield 0.94% 2.10% Price to Book 2.14 2.10 Debt to Equity 0.30 0.89 Earnings per Share 5.63 4.30 Financial Strength Ratios
  • 77. 77 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Summary  Stock Price (Friday Close)  $63.60 CDN (TSX)  $53.10 USD (NYSE)  TSX Data for Friday, November 5th  Last Traded: $63.60  Net Change: -$0.74 (-1.15%)  Volume: 1,858,222  52 Week High: $70.40  52 Week Low: $54.50
  • 78. 78 Canadian Oil and Gas Volume 1,913,600 P/E 11.90 52-Week High 70.400 Indicated Annual Div. 0.60 52-Week Low 53.800 Yield 0.94 C$ 63.600 Net Change: C$ -1.150 % Change: -1.15% Stock Price Summary (continued)
  • 79. 79 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: One Year Chart *Based on TSX Data (CDN dollars)
  • 80. 80 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: Five Year Chart *Based on TSX Data (CDN dollars)
  • 81. 81 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance Vs. Oil & Gas Index: One Year Chart *Based on NYSE Data (PCZ and Oil & Gas Index)
  • 82. 82 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance Vs. S&P 500: One Year Chart *Based on NYSE Data (PCZ and S&P 500)
  • 83. 83 Canadian Oil and Gas Recommendation BUY
  • 84. 84 84 Canadian Oil and Gas Suncor Energy
  • 85. 85 Canadian Oil and Gas SunCor Agenda  Company Background  Management Team  Core Business Segments  Business Strategy  Corporate Value Drivers  Reserves  Hedging Strategy  Financial Statement Analysis  Stock Price Performance  Recommendation
  • 86. 86 Canadian Oil and Gas Company Background  Suncor Energy is an integrated energy company.  Formed in 1979 as a result of an amalgamation of several operations.  Focused on developing the Athabasca Oil Sands: one of the world’s largest petroleum resource basins.  2004 YTD earnings are $337 million.  Produces 264,900 barrels of oil per day  4,000 employees  Listed on both the TSX and NYSE (Ticker SU).  $39.88 CDN per share (Tues close)  453,420,617 shares outstanding  Net capitalization exceeding $18 Billion CDN  Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta.
  • 87. 87 Canadian Oil and Gas Management Team  Richard L. George, President and CEO  23 years experience at Suncor; 13 years as CEO.  J. Kenneth Alley, Sr. VP and CFO  19 years experience at Suncor.  Steven W. Williams, Exec. VP, Oil Sands  Over 20 years of international energy industry experience.  David W. Byler, Exec. VP, Natural Gas & Renewable Energy  24 years experience at Suncor.  Thomas L. Ryley, Exec. VP, Energy Marketing and Refining  20 years experience at Suncor.  M. (Mike) Ashar, Exec. VP, Refining and Marketing USA  16 years experience at Suncor. Previous experience with Petro-Canada.
  • 88. 88 Canadian Oil and Gas Management Compensation
  • 89. 89 Canadian Oil and Gas Core Business Segments  Oil Sands  Operating in Canada’s Athabasca Oil Sands, Alberta  Oil is part of bitumen; can be extracted by mining and by in-situ (onsite)  Surface mines produce majority of crude oil but in-situ processes are expanding  Natural Gas  Extracted through pressurized wells  Energy Marketing & Refining (Canada)  Refine bitumen feedstock and natural gas and market it to customers in Ontario, Quebec, Northeastern USA  Sunoco chain of service stations in Ontario  Refinery based in Sarnia, Ontario
  • 90. 90 Canadian Oil and Gas Core Business Segments (continued)  Energy Marketing & Refining (USA)  In August 2003, Suncor acquired a Denver refinery and 43 Phillips 66 service stations.  Expansion gives Suncor greater ability to move oil products to American markets.  Renewable Energy  Two projects in Canada
  • 91. 91 Canadian Oil and Gas Contribution of Business Units (Earnings) Oil Sands 81% Natural Gas & Renewable Energy 12% Energy Marketing & Refining (Canada) 5% Energy Marketing & Refining (USA) 2%
  • 92. 92 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy  Athabasca Oil Sands  Next major goal is a targeted production capacity of 260,000 bpd by late 2005  Focus on efficient operations and management to maintain low crude oil production costs  Suncor continually will pursue new technology that will reduce operating costs and environmental impact - Expanding oil sands operation is a priority - Planned 2007 expansion of Steepbank Mine, Fort McMurray, Alberta - Expansion of the second upgrader along with a third one on 2010 - Maintain oil sands cash operating costs at an annual average of $10.75 to $11.75 per barrel
  • 93. 93 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy (continued)  Natural Gas  Suncor has found a solution to deal with high natural gas prices  Strategy is to exceed natural gas purchases for internal consumption  Functions as a price hedge  Energy Marketing & Refining (Canada)  Project Genesis: Sarnia refinery is investing in equipment to produce lower sulphur diesel  Helps to increase company’s ability to manufacture environmentally friendlier products to meet demand  Energy Marketing & Refining (USA)  Looking to further integrate products and services within the US, branching out from Denver, Colorado.
  • 94. 94 Canadian Oil and Gas Business Strategy (continued)
  • 95. 95 Canadian Oil and Gas Corporate Value Drivers  Increase production capacity from existing assets.  Reduce operating costs of existing assets through economies of scale and by upgrading process technologies.  Increase reserves (asset base) by pursuing new developments.  Be a first-mover in new energy technologies such as wind.
  • 96. 96 Canadian Oil and Gas Reserves  Company has an estimated 12 billion barrels of crude on hand that can be refined to produce approximately 10 billion barrels of oil.  At current production this will last 10 years.
  • 97. 97 Canadian Oil and Gas Factors That Affect Financials  Ongoing volatility of CDN/US exchange rates  Ongoing volatility of global and North American oil markets  New introduction of crude oil supply to North America  Ongoing variability in refining & retail margins  Unscheduled maintenance shutdowns  Oils Sands Alberta Crown Royalties  Ability to compete for projects  Extreme cold weather in 4Q
  • 98. 98 Canadian Oil and Gas Hedging Strategy  Commodity Hedging Activities  Company utilizes commodity based forwards, futures, swaps and options.  Board authorized the hedging of 35% of crude oil volume in 2004 and up to 30% for 2005-2007.  In 2003, hedging reduced net earnings by $155 million.  As of Q1, 2004, the BoD suspended the crude oil hedging program and no new contracts were entered in Q2 or Q3.  Financial Hedging Activities  Employs interest rate and cross-currency swaps  Interest rate swaps involve the exchange of floating rate and fixed rate interest payments  Cross-currency swaps involve the exchange of CDN dollar interest payments and US dollar interest payments, and an exchange of the principal amounts at the maturity date of the underlying security.
  • 99. 99 Canadian Oil and Gas Hedging Strategy
  • 100. 100 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement
  • 101. 101 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement (continued)
  • 102. 102 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet
  • 103. 103 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet (continued)  $1 Billion increase in PPE during 2003 due to acquisitions
  • 104. 104 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet (continued)  Retained earnings went up by $ 1 billion and dividends have remained fairly stable  We can infer that Suncor is pumping most of their money back into the company
  • 105. 105 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cashflows
  • 106. 106 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cash Flows (continued)  Free Cash Flow: CFO – CFI  2003 FCF fell from 2002 due to investment in new refinery and new retail stations & business  2001 FCF negative due to a large restructuring of natural gas business  YTD 2004 FCF was not as drastically improved by high oil prices because Suncor invested a large amount in upgrading and expanding their extraction and refining operations as well as opening a new wind power facility YTD 2004 2003 2002 2001 Free Cash Flow $338 $516 $595 -$868
  • 107. 107 Canadian Oil and Gas Financial Strength Ratios SunCor Present Day Industry Average Present Day Price to Earnings 16.50 21.90 Dividend Yield 0.60% 2.10% Price to Book 3.94 2.10 Debt to Equity 0.51 0.89 Earnings per Share 2.42 4.30
  • 108. 108 Canadian Oil and Gas Income Statement YTD
  • 109. 109 Canadian Oil and Gas Balance Sheet YTD
  • 110. 110 Canadian Oil and Gas Statement of Cashflows YTD
  • 111. 111 Canadian Oil and Gas Volume 617, 100 P/E 16.40 52-Week High 44.49 Indicated Annual Div. 0.24 52-Week Low 27.00 Yield 0.60 C$ 39.68 Net Change: C$ -0.02 % Change: -0.5% Stock Price Summary (continued)
  • 112. 112 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: One Year Chart (TSX)
  • 113. 113 Canadian Oil and Gas Stock Price Performance: Five Year Chart (TSX)
  • 114. 114 Canadian Oil and Gas Recommendation BUY
  • 115. 115 115 Canadian Oil and Gas Summary
  • 116. 116 Canadian Oil and Gas Summary BUY BUY BUY
  • 117. 117 Canadian Oil and Gas Questions