There are many areas that drive GDP growth as such it is important to look at all aspect of GDP. The USA government has yet to unveil its tax and trade policies as per Donald Trump's election commitment.
The G20 summit pits many countries against the USA on both Climate Change and Trade.
Key quote "The hot housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto appear to be on the verge of a severe downturn that could hit Canadian economic growth, says David Madani, Senior Canadian Economist at Capital Economics."
The Canadian housing market and economy showed signs of recovery in October. Home sales and prices increased across most of Canada, with the national average home price rising 13.6% year-over-year. The strong housing market recovery has contributed to Canada being one of the first developed nations to emerge from recession. While exports may be dampened by a stronger Canadian dollar, private investment and consumer spending are expected to support continued economic growth. Overall, recent data indicates Canada is well-positioned for a sustained rebound from the economic downturn.
The document discusses the declining value of the US dollar relative to other currencies like the Australian dollar, euro, and yen. Investors have lost confidence in the US dollar due to low interest rates and returns. As a result, the US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against other major currencies. This has benefited Australia's currency, the Australian dollar, which has risen over 30% against the US dollar this year. However, the rising Australian dollar is causing pain for Australian exporters and companies with foreign earnings. There is debate around how far the US dollar could continue to fall.
The document discusses the US subprime mortgage crisis and its limited impact on other economies. Loose lending guidelines in the US caused many subprime borrowers to take out mortgages they could not afford. As home prices fell, 10% of US subprime mortgages are expected to default. However, China, India, Brazil and Russia are less dependent on US trade and are experiencing strong domestic demand. Canada's economy and housing market are faring better than the US due to stricter lending standards. Alberta specifically continues to see growth in oil demand and prices, population increases, and office and housing construction booms.
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...Tristan Wiggill
A presentation delivered by Dawie Klopper, investment economist and portfolio manager of PSG Wealth at the annual Road Freight Association's Convention in Limpopo, South Africa.
This document discusses trends in gasoline prices in the United States and their implications. It notes that gasoline prices have fallen recently due to increased domestic oil supply from shale production and increased diesel demand abroad. These structural changes may cause gasoline prices to remain low compared to past cyclical patterns. Lower gasoline prices could significantly boost consumer confidence and spending, benefiting the US economy. Continued energy independence would further lower trade deficits and costs for US companies.
How Will Inflation Affect Your Investments?InvestingTips
This document discusses how inflation affects investments. It explains that inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. Investors need to earn returns higher than the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power. The large government spending to address the pandemic may cause inflation if excess money enters the economy faster than new goods and services. To fight inflation, the government raises interest rates to reduce money supply and slow economic growth. Investors should examine how different assets may perform during inflationary periods and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
There are many areas that drive GDP growth as such it is important to look at all aspect of GDP. The USA government has yet to unveil its tax and trade policies as per Donald Trump's election commitment.
The G20 summit pits many countries against the USA on both Climate Change and Trade.
Key quote "The hot housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto appear to be on the verge of a severe downturn that could hit Canadian economic growth, says David Madani, Senior Canadian Economist at Capital Economics."
The Canadian housing market and economy showed signs of recovery in October. Home sales and prices increased across most of Canada, with the national average home price rising 13.6% year-over-year. The strong housing market recovery has contributed to Canada being one of the first developed nations to emerge from recession. While exports may be dampened by a stronger Canadian dollar, private investment and consumer spending are expected to support continued economic growth. Overall, recent data indicates Canada is well-positioned for a sustained rebound from the economic downturn.
The document discusses the declining value of the US dollar relative to other currencies like the Australian dollar, euro, and yen. Investors have lost confidence in the US dollar due to low interest rates and returns. As a result, the US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against other major currencies. This has benefited Australia's currency, the Australian dollar, which has risen over 30% against the US dollar this year. However, the rising Australian dollar is causing pain for Australian exporters and companies with foreign earnings. There is debate around how far the US dollar could continue to fall.
The document discusses the US subprime mortgage crisis and its limited impact on other economies. Loose lending guidelines in the US caused many subprime borrowers to take out mortgages they could not afford. As home prices fell, 10% of US subprime mortgages are expected to default. However, China, India, Brazil and Russia are less dependent on US trade and are experiencing strong domestic demand. Canada's economy and housing market are faring better than the US due to stricter lending standards. Alberta specifically continues to see growth in oil demand and prices, population increases, and office and housing construction booms.
Uncertainty reigns worldwide and is affecting economies and markets - whereto...Tristan Wiggill
A presentation delivered by Dawie Klopper, investment economist and portfolio manager of PSG Wealth at the annual Road Freight Association's Convention in Limpopo, South Africa.
This document discusses trends in gasoline prices in the United States and their implications. It notes that gasoline prices have fallen recently due to increased domestic oil supply from shale production and increased diesel demand abroad. These structural changes may cause gasoline prices to remain low compared to past cyclical patterns. Lower gasoline prices could significantly boost consumer confidence and spending, benefiting the US economy. Continued energy independence would further lower trade deficits and costs for US companies.
How Will Inflation Affect Your Investments?InvestingTips
This document discusses how inflation affects investments. It explains that inflation erodes the purchasing power of money over time. Investors need to earn returns higher than the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power. The large government spending to address the pandemic may cause inflation if excess money enters the economy faster than new goods and services. To fight inflation, the government raises interest rates to reduce money supply and slow economic growth. Investors should examine how different assets may perform during inflationary periods and adjust their portfolios accordingly.
The document provides an overview of the positive economic signs in Canada over the past year, including increased consumer spending and confidence, an expected boost from the upcoming Olympics, and signs of a strengthening housing market such as record home sales and rising prices. It also summarizes recent mortgage rates, exports, job postings data and expectations for a thaw in salary freezes in 2010, indicating further economic recovery. Local real estate conditions may vary so buyers and sellers are advised to consult their Keller Williams agent for specific market insights.
Silicon Valley Bank 2015 State of the Wine Industry ReportSilicon Valley Bank
This document provides predictions and analysis for the wine industry in 2015. It begins by reviewing predictions made in the 2014 report, noting some that were accurate and some that were not.
The document then provides the following predictions for 2015:
1) The U.S. economy is strengthening, which will increase wine demand. Factors like lower oil prices and improving employment will benefit consumers. GDP growth is expected to reach 3%.
2) Another large harvest is expected in 2014, leading to excess supply in some areas. However, fine wine producers may find extra inventory beneficial by the end of 2015.
3) Fine wine sales are predicted to have breakout growth of 14-18% in 2015,
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
The document provides commentary on recent market movements. It notes that while mainstream markets like the S&P 500 and FTSE All Share saw strong gains in 2017, there has been some speculation of an impending correction. Last week, bond markets fell after the US announced increased federal borrowing and payroll data pointed to possible higher interest rates, leading to some profit taking in equities markets. However, the committee believes the overreaction will reverse over time as worldwide economic fundamentals remain positive, and maintaining a diversified approach will help navigate market volatility.
The document summarizes recent positive economic trends and events in Canada including rising home sales, home prices, and consumer confidence. Mortgage rates remain low while help wanted ads and salaries are expected to rise in 2010. Exports increased in November moving Canada to a trade surplus. The Bank of Canada expects growth forecasts to occur as predicted and will hold interest rates steady.
This document summarizes Art Berman's presentation on returning oil prices to market balance and how prices may respond. Some key points:
- The global oil market is moving toward balance as consumption increases and the supply surplus declines, though a balanced market may not mean higher prices.
- The origins of the oil price collapse stem from increased unconventional oil production enabled by higher prices, leading to oversupply.
- Significant underinvestment in the oil industry is expected to lead to a supply deficit and potential price spike in the future.
- Monetary policy and dollar valuation influence price cycles in the connected global economy and oil market.
Want to know whats happening in the Real Estate Market in Santa Clara County and East Bay County?
Is There a Housing Bubble ? What do the expert say ?
Want to know more ? Contact us today.
www.ValleyRG.com
Matt Nguyen, 408-816-9698
America’s flourishing and diminishing economiesAlicia Madison
The economies of Midland and Odessa, Texas grew rapidly in 2013 due to high demand for oil production in the region. Local economies often rely heavily on one industry, and as long as that industry is booming the economy and jobs will grow quickly. While some cities contracted in 2013, the US economy is predicted to pick up in the coming years with growth rates of 2.7% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. The booming oil industry has caused a shortage of affordable housing and high rents in Midland-Odessa, as the population increases rapidly due to new jobs in oil fields. Other cities experiencing fast growth have also seen low unemployment rates.
European high yield bonds have outperformed US high yield bonds recently due to stronger economic recovery in Europe and signs of resolution to the Greek crisis. However, risks remain for European high yield from slowing global growth, declining commodity prices, and potential outflows of investor funds. While the energy sector exposure is much smaller in Europe than the US, European high yield could still see more defaults from low oil prices. Investor flows will also be an important factor, as European high yield has seen significant inflows recently that could reverse and negatively impact prices.
This document discusses the tactical asset allocation approach at ING Investment Management. It emphasizes the importance of continuously generating new knowledge about markets from extensive research and external data. This includes understanding investment trends, investor sentiment, and the role of emotions in driving market behavior. The analysis recognizes that markets are complex and there are always new uncertainties. It also acknowledges that both financial factors and emotions influence markets.
Building Industry Forecast DC Jeff Meyers On National TrendsMeyers Research LLC
Jeff Meyers presented highlights on national trends at the Building Industry Forecast For D.C. Metro that explored questions: Where are we? Where are we going? This executive forecast breakfast was hosted by Meyers Research in support of building industry charity Homeaid America.
To learn about upcoming events visit http://www.meyersresearchllc.com/events/
Get our newsletter http://www.eepurl.com/DLd6D
Manhattan West Weekly Market Commentary 10.14.19 TrevorCharlston
Attention shifted from global economic growth concerns to U.S.-China trade talks last week, and progress towards a resolution helped boost domestic equity markets. The S&P 500 was up 0.66% last week, while the Dow and Nasdaq were up 0.93% and 0.94% respectively. The Dow is the only major index with a year-to-date return below 20%, while the Nasdaq leads the way at 22.45%. The S&P 500 currently has a year-to-date return of 20.38%. Interest rates rose last week as the appetite for risk increased, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note selling off 24 basis points and finishing the week at 1.76%. This appetite for risk was also driven by perceived progress in Brexit discussions between the United Kingdom and European Union.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
Canada's trade surplus with U.S. hits highest level in three yearspaul young cpa, cga
Canada trade surpluses continue to be led by oil. The problem facing Canada will be the impact of NAFTA being open by USA. There are already trade issues between Canada and USA related to Dairy or Softwood Lumber or Aerospace.
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation will look at slow economic growth in Canada. The presentation will discuss liberal policies as well as macro and micro indicators when it comes to areas like wages, retail sales, trade, manufacturing sales, employment and housing prices.
The presentation will also reflect 3rd part comment that relate to GDP, debt, housing prices, trade as well as other areas of the economy
Economic scorecard - Canada - 3Q16 - Liberal party of Canada - Key Indicators paul young cpa, cga
This presentation will look at Liberal Party financial and economic performance for 3Q15. The presentation will look at areas like gdp, wages, employment, exports and manufacturing sales. T
The presentation will also look at government revenue and expenses as part of looking at the deficits for Canada.
The document summarizes Paul Young's views on the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate hike in July 2017. It outlines 10 reasons for the rate hike, including that Canada's productivity lags other countries, government debt levels are unsustainable, and wage growth has stagnated while housing prices continue to outpace economic indicators. The rate hike is meant to maintain Canada's competitiveness as household budgets are under pressure from tax increases and stagnant wages.
Are GDP fundamentals strong for Canada and United states may 2017paul young cpa, cga
This presentation looks at key areas that will drive GDP for both Canada and United States. Key fundamentals are what you have to watch when assessing GDP. GDP has many moving parts, but a few parts drive the bulk of GDP like consumer spending, business spending/investment and government spending.
Canada's economy has shown strength in 2017. However, caution should be consider when reviewing the GDP growth numbers due to fact that oil production has rebound both due to higher prices as well as production returning to Fort McMurray
GDP growth for Canada has been bumped up for 2017 and 2018. It should be known that for the past six months or so GDP rates continue to get adjusted. The concerns is that slowdown is showing in key areas like retail spending, building permits, manufacturing sales and exports.
This document provides a summary and forecast of the Canadian provincial economies in June 2017 by Paul Young, CPA, CGA. It includes an overview of Paul Young's background and expertise. It then lists various sources and risk factors that could impact provincial GDP growth forecasts, such as housing prices, natural resource development policies, labor reforms, hydro rates, and federal/provincial deficit and infrastructure strategies. The summary concludes by noting some specific economic conditions and policies in June 2017 that could affect the forecasts, such as carbon taxation, elimination of tax credits, household debt levels, and pending US tax reforms and Ontario election policies.
The document provides an overview of the positive economic signs in Canada over the past year, including increased consumer spending and confidence, an expected boost from the upcoming Olympics, and signs of a strengthening housing market such as record home sales and rising prices. It also summarizes recent mortgage rates, exports, job postings data and expectations for a thaw in salary freezes in 2010, indicating further economic recovery. Local real estate conditions may vary so buyers and sellers are advised to consult their Keller Williams agent for specific market insights.
Silicon Valley Bank 2015 State of the Wine Industry ReportSilicon Valley Bank
This document provides predictions and analysis for the wine industry in 2015. It begins by reviewing predictions made in the 2014 report, noting some that were accurate and some that were not.
The document then provides the following predictions for 2015:
1) The U.S. economy is strengthening, which will increase wine demand. Factors like lower oil prices and improving employment will benefit consumers. GDP growth is expected to reach 3%.
2) Another large harvest is expected in 2014, leading to excess supply in some areas. However, fine wine producers may find extra inventory beneficial by the end of 2015.
3) Fine wine sales are predicted to have breakout growth of 14-18% in 2015,
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
The document provides commentary on recent market movements. It notes that while mainstream markets like the S&P 500 and FTSE All Share saw strong gains in 2017, there has been some speculation of an impending correction. Last week, bond markets fell after the US announced increased federal borrowing and payroll data pointed to possible higher interest rates, leading to some profit taking in equities markets. However, the committee believes the overreaction will reverse over time as worldwide economic fundamentals remain positive, and maintaining a diversified approach will help navigate market volatility.
The document summarizes recent positive economic trends and events in Canada including rising home sales, home prices, and consumer confidence. Mortgage rates remain low while help wanted ads and salaries are expected to rise in 2010. Exports increased in November moving Canada to a trade surplus. The Bank of Canada expects growth forecasts to occur as predicted and will hold interest rates steady.
This document summarizes Art Berman's presentation on returning oil prices to market balance and how prices may respond. Some key points:
- The global oil market is moving toward balance as consumption increases and the supply surplus declines, though a balanced market may not mean higher prices.
- The origins of the oil price collapse stem from increased unconventional oil production enabled by higher prices, leading to oversupply.
- Significant underinvestment in the oil industry is expected to lead to a supply deficit and potential price spike in the future.
- Monetary policy and dollar valuation influence price cycles in the connected global economy and oil market.
Want to know whats happening in the Real Estate Market in Santa Clara County and East Bay County?
Is There a Housing Bubble ? What do the expert say ?
Want to know more ? Contact us today.
www.ValleyRG.com
Matt Nguyen, 408-816-9698
America’s flourishing and diminishing economiesAlicia Madison
The economies of Midland and Odessa, Texas grew rapidly in 2013 due to high demand for oil production in the region. Local economies often rely heavily on one industry, and as long as that industry is booming the economy and jobs will grow quickly. While some cities contracted in 2013, the US economy is predicted to pick up in the coming years with growth rates of 2.7% in 2014 and 3.2% in 2015. The booming oil industry has caused a shortage of affordable housing and high rents in Midland-Odessa, as the population increases rapidly due to new jobs in oil fields. Other cities experiencing fast growth have also seen low unemployment rates.
European high yield bonds have outperformed US high yield bonds recently due to stronger economic recovery in Europe and signs of resolution to the Greek crisis. However, risks remain for European high yield from slowing global growth, declining commodity prices, and potential outflows of investor funds. While the energy sector exposure is much smaller in Europe than the US, European high yield could still see more defaults from low oil prices. Investor flows will also be an important factor, as European high yield has seen significant inflows recently that could reverse and negatively impact prices.
This document discusses the tactical asset allocation approach at ING Investment Management. It emphasizes the importance of continuously generating new knowledge about markets from extensive research and external data. This includes understanding investment trends, investor sentiment, and the role of emotions in driving market behavior. The analysis recognizes that markets are complex and there are always new uncertainties. It also acknowledges that both financial factors and emotions influence markets.
Building Industry Forecast DC Jeff Meyers On National TrendsMeyers Research LLC
Jeff Meyers presented highlights on national trends at the Building Industry Forecast For D.C. Metro that explored questions: Where are we? Where are we going? This executive forecast breakfast was hosted by Meyers Research in support of building industry charity Homeaid America.
To learn about upcoming events visit http://www.meyersresearchllc.com/events/
Get our newsletter http://www.eepurl.com/DLd6D
Manhattan West Weekly Market Commentary 10.14.19 TrevorCharlston
Attention shifted from global economic growth concerns to U.S.-China trade talks last week, and progress towards a resolution helped boost domestic equity markets. The S&P 500 was up 0.66% last week, while the Dow and Nasdaq were up 0.93% and 0.94% respectively. The Dow is the only major index with a year-to-date return below 20%, while the Nasdaq leads the way at 22.45%. The S&P 500 currently has a year-to-date return of 20.38%. Interest rates rose last week as the appetite for risk increased, with the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note selling off 24 basis points and finishing the week at 1.76%. This appetite for risk was also driven by perceived progress in Brexit discussions between the United Kingdom and European Union.
This document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for 2017 from BMO Financial Group. Some key points:
- Global GDP growth is expected to modestly increase to 3.1% in 2017 from 2.8% in 2016, still below the long-term trend of 3.6%.
- The US economy is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, up from 1.6% in 2016, supported by potential fiscal stimulus and tax cuts under Trump.
- The Bank of Canada is expected to remain on hold through at least the first half of 2017 due to domestic and US economic uncertainties.
- Canadian GDP growth is projected to rise to 2.0% in 2017 from around 1.
Canada's trade surplus with U.S. hits highest level in three yearspaul young cpa, cga
Canada trade surpluses continue to be led by oil. The problem facing Canada will be the impact of NAFTA being open by USA. There are already trade issues between Canada and USA related to Dairy or Softwood Lumber or Aerospace.
Canada – Slow growth – Liberal party of Canada - December 7, 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation will look at slow economic growth in Canada. The presentation will discuss liberal policies as well as macro and micro indicators when it comes to areas like wages, retail sales, trade, manufacturing sales, employment and housing prices.
The presentation will also reflect 3rd part comment that relate to GDP, debt, housing prices, trade as well as other areas of the economy
Economic scorecard - Canada - 3Q16 - Liberal party of Canada - Key Indicators paul young cpa, cga
This presentation will look at Liberal Party financial and economic performance for 3Q15. The presentation will look at areas like gdp, wages, employment, exports and manufacturing sales. T
The presentation will also look at government revenue and expenses as part of looking at the deficits for Canada.
The document summarizes Paul Young's views on the Bank of Canada's recent interest rate hike in July 2017. It outlines 10 reasons for the rate hike, including that Canada's productivity lags other countries, government debt levels are unsustainable, and wage growth has stagnated while housing prices continue to outpace economic indicators. The rate hike is meant to maintain Canada's competitiveness as household budgets are under pressure from tax increases and stagnant wages.
Are GDP fundamentals strong for Canada and United states may 2017paul young cpa, cga
This presentation looks at key areas that will drive GDP for both Canada and United States. Key fundamentals are what you have to watch when assessing GDP. GDP has many moving parts, but a few parts drive the bulk of GDP like consumer spending, business spending/investment and government spending.
Canada's economy has shown strength in 2017. However, caution should be consider when reviewing the GDP growth numbers due to fact that oil production has rebound both due to higher prices as well as production returning to Fort McMurray
GDP growth for Canada has been bumped up for 2017 and 2018. It should be known that for the past six months or so GDP rates continue to get adjusted. The concerns is that slowdown is showing in key areas like retail spending, building permits, manufacturing sales and exports.
This document provides a summary and forecast of the Canadian provincial economies in June 2017 by Paul Young, CPA, CGA. It includes an overview of Paul Young's background and expertise. It then lists various sources and risk factors that could impact provincial GDP growth forecasts, such as housing prices, natural resource development policies, labor reforms, hydro rates, and federal/provincial deficit and infrastructure strategies. The summary concludes by noting some specific economic conditions and policies in June 2017 that could affect the forecasts, such as carbon taxation, elimination of tax credits, household debt levels, and pending US tax reforms and Ontario election policies.
This presentation looks at GDP for March 2017. Canada had a very strong January in terms of GDP, but growth has slowed down since January 2017. Canada is still on pace for GDP growth of 2.1% for 2017.
Bank of Canada hikes interest rates to combat High Inflation and High cost of...paul young cpa, cga
Summary:
High inflation is here to stay for awhile due to failed agendas of government.
Mitigating climate change is very important. The mitigation should be done through better policy including how to best support cheap energy costs. The focus should also be on policies and programs that support the green and circular economy.
Canada has lost it ways when it comes to encouraging innovation within the private and public sector. Trudeau policies have been a failure!
Liberals around the world should revisiting their so-called carbon pricing schemes. There is a better approach to protecting the environment while growing the economy in a sustainable way. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-the-public-and-private-sector-can-better-supoort-the-circular-and-green-economies
Housing costs continue to rise! https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/interest-rate-hike-won-t-cool-housing-say-experts-1.5802515
1. Interest rates - https://wowa.ca/bank-of-canada-interest-rate
2. First interest hike since 2018 - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bank-of-canada-hikes-rates-for-first-time-since-2018-1.1731177
3. Inflation - https://globalnews.ca/news/8654004/canada-interest-rate-hike-march-2022/
4. Inflation - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/boc-will-have-to-kill-the-economy-to-crush-inflation-rosenberg-1.1731579
5. UBI - https://www.ubiworks.ca/howtopay
6. Green inflation - https://www.advisor.ca/investments/market-insights/green-energy-low-supply-to-drive-copper-prices/
7. Inflation - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-02/biden-state-of-union-proposals-would-do-little-to-curb-inflation
8. Energy - https://www.tester.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=8934
9. Oil - https://www.jwnenergy.com/article/2022/3/2/mayhem-reigns-in-oil-markets-as-traders-avoid-russ/
10. LNG - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/threat-to-europe-gas-supply-bolsters-push-on-new-u-s-lng-plants-1.1731478
11. Food security - https://www.newsweek.com/war-ukraine-global-food-security-crisis-opinion-1683791
12. Housing affordability - https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-housing-affordability-hits-the-worst-level-since-the-last-bubble-nbf/
13. Commodities - https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities
This document provides an overview and agenda for discussing the 2017 United States GDP. It was authored by Paul Young, a CPA and CGA with expertise in various financial and business areas. The document outlines that the US will have the fastest GDP growth in the G7 in 2017, while Canada's growth will lag behind both Germany and the US. It also includes GDP figures by quarter for the US and a comparison of GDP under previous Canadian prime ministers Harper and the current prime minister Trudeau.
The document discusses issues facing Canada's slowing economic growth and potential solutions. It summarizes that Canada has experienced slow GDP growth for over 12 years due to factors like commodity prices, consumer demand, and exports. Most of Canada's GDP comes from the services sector rather than goods producing. Potential next generation businesses include 3D printing, drones, and driverless cars. The government could support these through innovation centers, tax credits, and reducing red tape. Expanding exports, revamping education and skills training, controlling housing price growth, and reducing government deficits and debt are also discussed as ways to address slow economic growth in Canada.
The document discusses Canada's slow economic growth and identifies several factors contributing to it. It notes that the Liberal Economic Council is brainstorming ways to increase growth such as easing immigration, retraining workers, and creating infrastructure programs. However, there are no easy fixes as the economy depends on many interconnected areas like exports, consumer spending, commodity prices, and government policies. The document outlines some policy options for various sectors but notes that simply adding regulations will not help and the government cannot rely solely on tax increases from businesses to fund spending.
Cost of Living (Inflation) - United States - March 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Inflation is highest since 1981. Carter was the president - https://www.thebalance.com/president-jimmy-carter-s-economic-policies-4586571
Biden was around during those times - https://www.britannica.com/biography/Joe-Biden
Retail sales in Canada were up in March 2017 compared to February 2017. The document then provides details on retail sales numbers and trends from various sources such as Stats Canada and BMO Economics. It notes that automotive sales are driving overall retail sales growth, while food sales growth has slowed. It also discusses household debt levels in Canada and forecasts that many Canadians may face financial difficulties if interest rates rise significantly in the future. The document concludes by comparing e-commerce sales and trends in Canada versus the United States.
Scorecard - Key Metrics - The United States - July 2022 and August 2022.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
USA GDP has contracted for two consecutive quarters
Business automation spending continues to grow
USA continues to look at ways to expand LNG exports
Farmers continue to face challenges with crop yields
Housing market is facing enormous challenges over eighteen months
Inflation has been declining but more needs to be done to address systemic issues with inflation. Key focus areas should be reeling government spending, tax, and regulatory reforms as part of addressing issues with productivity
Innovation is another area that the private sector needs to do more investing as part of managing their product life cycles.
Balance of payments – Canada – June 2017 - Analysis of inflows and Outflowspaul young cpa, cga
Canada's current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) widened by $2.3 billion in the first quarter to $14.1 billion, as the goods balance moved from a surplus to a deficit. In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), large foreign investment in Canadian corporate securities led the net inflow of funds into the economy. – Stats Canada – May 30, 2017
Canada’s current account gap widened as non-energy exports continue to struggle to gain traction. At around 2.7% of GDP, the shortfall is borderline sustainable, but still points to continued softness in the Canadian dollar. BMO Economics – May 31, 2017
Paul Young authored a document on real estate in Canada from June 2017. He includes his biography and contact information. The document discusses a recent Bank of Canada interest rate hike and its potential impacts on household budgets already under pressure from stagnant wages and increased taxes. Housing starts in Canada are also summarized for June 2017, along with average housing prices from multiple sources including Stats Canada, BMO, and Scotiabank.
Similar to Canada has the fastest growing economy in the G7 (20)
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - July 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Canadian retail sales dropped 0.3% in August, the first decline since March, as higher interest rates start to impact household budgets. Seven of the nine retail subsectors saw sales increases in July, led by food and beverage retailers, while motor vehicle and parts dealers saw the largest decrease. Excluding autos, retail sales in July rose 1%, double expectations. The report suggests Canadians are tightening spending as more face higher mortgage payments and gas prices due to Bank of Canada rate hikes aimed at slowing inflation.
Addressing issues with the Public Sector Governance Model.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
The key challenges facing Australian business leaders in 2023 include:
1. Talent acquisition, retention and training staff for digital transformation.
2. Implementing successful digital transformation while managing cyber risks.
3. Adapting to changing regulations and reporting requirements.
Health risks from COVID-19, social reputation concerns, and disruptive emerging technologies are also significant social challenges impacting Australian businesses. Over the next 3-5 years, talent management for digitization, cybersecurity, digital transformation, regulatory changes, and identifying new growth opportunities will be the top challenges according to business leaders.
Global Housing Market Analysis and Commentary- September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Homebuilders are walking a fine line when it comes to new projects as high mortgage rates curb demand.
New residential construction, including single-family homes and multifamily, dropped 11.3% month over month in August to 1.283 million units on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to Census Bureau data released Tuesday. That's down 14.8% compared with a year ago and well below the 1.44 million units economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected.
But authorized residential permits — an indicator of potential future activity — rose 6.9% to 1.543 million permits in August from July. That was still down 2.7% from last August. Single-family permits, though, were up 2% from July to 949,000. Multifamily permits came in at 535,000.
The data reflects two opposing forces builders are trying to balance: the ongoing need for new construction to fill in limited inventory and elevated mortgage rates that are hurting their biggest customer right now, the first-time homebuyer.
"High mortgage rates are clearly taking a toll on builder confidence and consumer demand, as a growing number of buyers are electing to defer a home purchase until long-term rates move lower," Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, said Monday in a press release after builder confidence dropped for the second straight month.
Source: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuilders-face-a-tough-balancing-act-on-new-construction-amid-high-mortgage-rates-130744368.html
Blog – What is next for the Mining Sector – September 2023
The mining sector provides critical material that support solar, wind, and lithium-ion batteries as part of the green transition. https://www.iea.org/news/critical-minerals-market-sees-unprecedented-growth-as-clean-energy-demand-drives-strong-increase-in-investment
The mining sector products play a key role with the global GDP - https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/global-mining-industry-value-was-69-of-world-gdp-last-year-china-says
Mining practices need to be sustainable including following all ESG policies - https://www.linkedin.com/advice/1/how-can-you-monitor-sustainable-mining-practices
Other links and sources –
Lithium Supply and Price - https://zbr.com.mx/en/sin-categoria-es/lithium-prices-fall-44-in-china-due-to-lack-of-demand/138168/
Cobalt - https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mahmut-karada%C5%9F-a2b7a5151_china-exportrestrictions-gallium-activity-7082603182589157376-Zrty/?trk=public_profile_like_view
Nickel https://www.eureporter.co/business/2023/09/15/stanislav-kondrashov-from-telf-ag-nickel-prices-outlook-remains-positive/
Iron-ore - https://www.brecorder.com/news/40263584/sgx-iron-ore-set-for-best-week-in-3-months
TD Bank / Metals - https://www.tdsecurities.com/ca/en/setting-the-stage-for-gold-outlook
Biodiversity / Mining - https://worldcrunch.com/green/lithium-green-energy-argentina-indigenous
ESG - https://iriscarbon.com/the-added-value-of-integrated-esg-reporting-a-threefold-framework/
Blog – Manufacturing Shipments and Orders – The United States – August 2023
Summary:
New orders for manufacturing technology in the United States totaled $353.9 million in July 2023, as per the latest report by AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. This figure marked a 12.4% decline from June 2023 but remained only 10.5% lower than July 2022. Year-to-date orders amounted to $2.83 billion, reflecting a 12.7% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.
Douglas K. Woods, President of AMT, noted that July is typically a slower month for manufacturing technology orders, so a slight drop was expected. However, he pointed out a notable trend: over the last two months, the year-to-date order gap has narrowed during historically slow periods. While job shops have seen decreased orders, other industries that benefited from reshoring or government investments have helped fill the gap.
Among specific sectors, job shops, the largest customer segment, placed their lowest total monthly orders since August 2020. In contrast, metal valve manufacturers recorded their third-highest monthly order value on record, last seen in September 2018, making up nearly 5% of the total manufacturing technology order value for July 2023. Manufacturers of motor vehicle transmissions continued to order machinery at an elevated pace. However, the aerospace industry continued to order below its early 2022 peaks, with hopes that recent projects like the federal government's $1.5 billion investment in communications satellites might reverse this trend.
Source: https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/september/u.s.-manufacturing-technology-orders-dip-in-july-but-show-resilience-amid-economic-uncertainty
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 15 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Blog – Analysis and Commentary – Stock Market – WE September 15 2023
Summary:
Stocks fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 288.87 points to close out Friday and the week at 34,618.24. At its lows, it completely wiped out Thursday's 332-point rally.
The S&P 500 index sank 54.78 points, or 1.2%, to 4,450.32.
The NASDAQ index plunged 217.72 points, or 1.6%, to 13,708.33.
The Dow held onto a winning week. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed out the week with losses.
Information technology was the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500, down nearly 2%. Adobe shares fell more than 4% even after the software firm posted better-than-expected quarterly results. Shares of Arm Holdings were lower one day after its successful public debut.
Auto stocks General Motors and Stellantis N.V. were higher Friday, while Ford Motor was about flat. Thousands of members of the United Auto Workers went on strike after failing to reach a deal with the automakers Thursday night.
Elsewhere, Lennar shares slid 3%. The home construction firm posted third-quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines.
On the economic front, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in
September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
- Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.6% in July, led by higher sales in food products, petroleum and coal products, and transportation equipment. Paper and plastics sales decreased the most.
- Inventory levels increased slightly while unfilled orders decreased, pointing to a potential slowdown.
- The manufacturing sector in Canada will continue to face challenges such as global economic uncertainty, rising costs, supply chain issues, climate change risks, and skills shortages.
Electricity Analysis - Canada and the OECD - June 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Summary:
Over three-quarters of the world’s total coal-generated electricity is consumed in just three countries. China is the top user of coal, making up 53.3% of global coal demand, followed by India at 13.6%, and the U.S. at 8.9%.
Burning coal—for electricity, as well as metallurgy and cement production—is the world’s single largest source of CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, its use in electricity generation has actually grown 91.2% since 1997, the year when the first global climate agreement was signed in Kyoto, Japan.
However, even as non-renewables enjoy their time in the sun, their days could be numbered.
In 2022, renewables, such as wind, solar, and geothermal, represented 14.4% of total electricity generation with an extraordinary annual growth rate of 14.7%, driven by big gains in solar and wind. Non-renewables, by contrast, only managed an anemic 0.4%.
The authors of the Statistical Review do not include hydroelectric in their renewable calculations, even though many others, including the International Energy Agency, consider it a “well-established renewable power technology.”
With hydroelectric moved into the renewable column, together they accounted for over 29.3% of all electricity generated in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 7.4%.
Source - https://energynow.ca/2023/09/infographic-what-electricity-sources-power-the-world-see-them-here-visual-capitalist/
Logistics Warehousing Transportation and Distrbution Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The document provides an overview of key metrics and trends in the logistics, warehousing, distribution, and transportation sector. It includes data on consumer price index, diesel fuel costs, freight indexes, e-commerce sales, retail sales, class 8 truck sales, EPA emissions standards, trailer sales, and tonnage. It also discusses supply chain management solutions like planning analytics, blockchain, and AI assistants. Finally, it touches on topics like infrastructure spending, automation, and ESG reporting.
Retail Sales and Consumer Spending Analysis and Commentary - United States - ...paul young cpa, cga
United States retail sales rose 0.6% in August despite flat sales at internet retailers after Amazon Prime Day. Most of the increase was due to higher gasoline prices. While consumer spending has been strong, higher interest rates and a slowdown in hiring are expected to restrain purchases in the coming months. Forecasters predict the 2023 holiday shopping season could be the weakest in five years due to economic challenges facing consumers. The retail sector continues facing inventory management challenges and social governance issues.
How to improve the Governance Model for the Public Sector - United States - S...paul young cpa, cga
This document provides a summary of strategies to improve governance in government. It discusses factors that impact governance like transparency and accountability. It recommends using performance audits to assess key performance indicators and ensure recommendations are implemented. Other strategies include improving data ethics and literacy, mitigating geopolitical risks, adopting ESG reporting, and using technology like audit analytics and AI to enhance governance. The overall goal is for government to deliver programs and tax policies with value for money and transparency.
This document provides an analysis of the agriculture output and equipment sector for August 2023. It includes discussions of commodity prices, crop estimates, energy prices, food prices, farming incomes, top farming states, food processors, and the role of technology and government in farming. Key points covered include rising input costs challenging farmers, preliminary crop estimates for Canada, volatility in oil and diesel prices impacting farm expenses, and opportunities for data and automation to help address issues in the agriculture industry.
Biotech Pharmaceutical Medical Equipment and Supplies - Analysis - September ...paul young cpa, cga
This document provides an overview and agenda for a presentation on the biotech, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sector. It includes:
- An introduction and biography of presenter Paul Young CPA CGA
- An agenda covering topics like vaccine production, drug discovery, innovation in areas like storage and AI, and the life sciences strategy
- Links and summaries of information on these topics, including the top vaccine manufacturers, regulations in Canada, and growth in the pharmaceutical market
The presentation aims to discuss key areas of the biotech/pharmaceutical sector including vaccine development and production, drug discovery, innovation, and strategies for the life sciences industry. Links and outside sources are provided to support the topics in the agenda.
Better Public Safety Management using Analytics - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
This document discusses using analytics to improve public safety management. It outlines rising public safety costs for governments and key issues facing policing like complex crimes and accountability. The document presents crime rate data for Canada and discusses building machine learning models in SPSS and dashboards in Cognos Analytics to analyze police data and forecast expenses. Finally, it lists potential next steps for crime in Canada like bail and corrections reforms, gun control, and increased police oversight.
Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for WE September 9 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
What did the markets tell us this week?
1. Housing supply and costs continue to plague countries around the world.
2. Gasoline prices are on the rise that puts pressure on central banks ability to hit their core inflation targets.
3. ESG adoption by both the private and public sector is leading to both funding concerns and the overall cost of implementing ESG policies.
4. Adopting technology as part of increasing food production is facing both capital and operational funding concerns.
5. Strike at LNG facility in Australia is leading to concerns around a supply chain disruption of natural gas for EMEA and Asia.
6. The threat of China dumping batteries into markets - https://www.ft.com/content/b6038e51-7b5b-4f97-a5da-9202e71562fc
7. Adoption of generative AI has been facing many challenges related to security, privacy, and ethical issues.
8. Lack of biodiversity planning as part of the overall climate mitigation including sustainable mining, forestry, oil, gas, agriculture, and housing
9. Geopolitical issues continue to impact supply chain.
10. The concerns of recession continue to plague both the private and public sector.
11. Productivity issues continue to plague governments around the world.
Workforce Planning and Employment Analysis - August 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
The document discusses workforce planning and employment analysis. It provides an overview of employment statistics in the United States, Canada, and Australia. It then discusses Sysco's workforce planning model and the role of the CFO in workforce planning. Finally, it defines autonomous finance as the automation of financial operations through software and algorithms, and provides some key statistics on its adoption.
Global Automotive - Analysis and Commentary - August 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
This presentation provides an overview of key trends in the global automotive sector in August 2023. It discusses 1) sales trends in Canada, the US and globally, 2) the growth of electric vehicles and focus on reducing emissions, and 3) ongoing transformation in the industry through automation, connectivity and new technologies. Sources included discuss topics like electric vehicle production and adoption, public safety issues regarding EV fires, gasoline and car prices, supply chain challenges, and green transitions in transportation.
Global (Mining Oil and Gas Forestry and Agriculture) Analysis and Commentary ...paul young cpa, cga
The mining, oil, gas, agriculture, forestry, and mining continue to face environmental, social, and governance policy review including reporting of key metrics as part of ESG reporting cycle.
There is more focus on profitability and investment returns as part of the integrated planning and reporting cycle.
Summary:
The global economy faces what at least one forecaster is calling a mild trade recession as shipments from China slump and German factories downshift.
China’s export declines extended into August, though there were signs that the worst of a world trade slowdown may be over for the leading exporter.
Overseas shipments from China fell 8.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier while imports contracted 7.3%, both better than economists’ estimates and significantly less severe than July’s downturn.
Other data have suggested trade may be stabilizing after weakening for most of this year. Exports from South Korea also declined at a more moderate pace in August than the previous month.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-07/supply-chain-latest-world-trade-faces-a-shallow-recession?srnd=economics-v2
Additional sources and links:
Lithium - https://source.benchmarkminerals.com/article/falling-lithium-prices-challenge-potential-cost-advantages-of-sodium-batteries
Oil Production - https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/06/business/oil-price-goldman-sachs/index.html
Natural gas - https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natural-gas-holds-up-as-markets-in-limbo-over-strikes-202309070956
Lumber - https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/sawmill-capacity-closures-reshape-us-lumber-supply
Critical metals - https://www.wasterecyclingmag.ca/feature/how-recycling-could-solve-the-shortage-of-minerals-essential-to-clean-energy/
Agriculture - https://www.morningagclips.com/economists-forecast-positive-end-of-year-crop-outlook-despite-warmer-midwestern-climate/
ESG - https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2023/09/the-informed-board/the-eus-new-esg-disclosure-rules
Ports - https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAPAG-LLOYD-AG-24857717/news/Hapag-Lloyd-chief-warns-of-rougher-seas-ahead-for-container-shipping-44789017/
Top destination for reshoring - https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2023/08/29/uae-in-top-10-most-powerful-passports-for-investment-opportunity/
Global Trade - https://phys.org/news/2023-09-opinion-broke-global-climate-finish.html
What is next for the Forestry Sector and Lumber Production - September 2023.pptxpaul young cpa, cga
Lumber production in Canada continues to face many hurdles
Canada forest management practices are some of the bests in the world
Canada planted over 440M in seedlings back in 2018. It is now 2022 which means close 2M seedlings have been planted.
All levels need to put more focus on urban and rural planning solutions
More work including spending on wildfire and forest fire mitigation
Canada and USA need to find a path forward to resolve the softwood lumber dispute
There needs to a better balanced between climate change policies and growing the economy in a sustainable way
3D printing for housing needs to become mainstream
More protection needs to happen with key ecosystems like wetlands, forest, and peatlands.
There is a risk of debt default if interest rates are hike over the next few months
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
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May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
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1. CANADA AND USA GDP
ANALYSIS – 1Q17
BY: PAUL YOUNG, CPA, CGA
DATE: JUNE 1, 2017
2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Financial Solutions
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com
3. OVERVIEW
• This presentation discusses the GDP for both Canada and USA
including issues at hand that could impact growth for the
remaining quarters in 2017
5. CANADA AND USA GDP ANALYSIS
• Stats Canada and http://www.multpl.com/us-gdp-inflation-
6. USA AND CANADA GDP COMPARISON
Source – Stats Canada and BEA
7. CANADA’S ECONOMY FASTEST-GROWING IN G7,
BUT INVESTORS AREN’T WOWED
Source - https://www.therecord.com/news-story/7346153-canada-s-
economy-fastest-growing-in-g7-but-investors-aren-t-wowed/
Canada's economy is flexing its muscles. Investors are not impressed.
The country's economy expanded at an annualized 3.7 per cent pace in the first quarter,
Statistics Canada reported Wednesday, easily tops in the Group of Seven.
Meanwhile, in a year when stocks are rising everywhere, Canada's benchmark index is the
second-worst performer in the developed world after Israel, according to Bloomberg data. It's
a similar story in currency and bond markets.
The performance underscores how, even with the improving economic performance, caution
prevails. Investors remain concerned about geopolitical risks, the outlook for oil prices and a
housing market that some analysts say is on the verge of a correction.
"It is a tad curious to say the least that the Canadian economy arguably has been one of the
bigger pleasant surprises in 2017 and meanwhile the equity market has done a belly flop,"
said Doug Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, who highlighted the disconnect
between Canadian growth and market performance in a May 26 note.
8. ISSUES AT HAND FOR THE CANADIAN
ECONOMY
• Oil Price and Production have rebounded (2016 seen the Ft McMurray fire
and lower oil prices
• Service sector is fueled by the overprice housing market. Housing prices are
still growing at 8-10 times higher than inflation
• Canada and Mexico are re-negotiating NAFTA. Canada has already
experience duty on Lumber
• Retail spending reflects capital purchases. Canada household debt is
becoming a big issue.
• USA economy is still in wait and see approach in terms of Trump’s policies