This document provides a summary and forecast of the Canadian provincial economies in June 2017 by Paul Young, CPA, CGA. It includes an overview of Paul Young's background and expertise. It then lists various sources and risk factors that could impact provincial GDP growth forecasts, such as housing prices, natural resource development policies, labor reforms, hydro rates, and federal/provincial deficit and infrastructure strategies. The summary concludes by noting some specific economic conditions and policies in June 2017 that could affect the forecasts, such as carbon taxation, elimination of tax credits, household debt levels, and pending US tax reforms and Ontario election policies.

1. Provincial Forecast -
Canada – June 2017
By: Paul Young, CPA, CGA
Date: June 13, 2017

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA (1996)
• Financial Solutions (FOPM/FPM)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Advance Technology and Market
Entry
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Business Strategy and
Restructuring
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Manufacturing Sales
• Stats Canada

4. Merchandise Trade / Provinces – April 2017
• Export Development Corporation

5. Commodity Index – Scotiabank
Source – Scotiabank Economics
BMO Economics

6. Government Surplus/(Deficits)
• Royal Bank of Canada

7. GDP Growth Targets / Provinces
Source – RBC

8. Risk Factors to Growth
• Toronto and Vancouver housing prices - http://www.bnn.ca/canada-s-housing-market-on-
the-brink-of-severe-downturn-warns-capital-economics-1.774787
• BC has key areas like natural gas, oil, forestry and metals. Both Green Party and NDP are
against the development of natural resources - http://vancouversun.com/opinion/op-
ed/opinion-a-slow-burn-is-quickening-in-b-c
• Ontario and Alberta labour reforms could be jobs at risk -
http://business.financialpost.com/entrepreneur/0612-biz-dk-cfib or
http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/human-resources/overhaul-ontario-labour-laws-
leave-business-worker-groups-unhappy-194189/
• Hydro rates continue to be issue for business -
http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=998592
• Federal Government deficits including lack of coherent strategy on infrastructure
investments - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/building-permits-canada-april-2017

9. Summary
• GDP forecast was based on the conditions that exist June 2017. Many policies could impact the
June 2017 forecast as part of their implementation
• Consumers are seeing tax increases through payroll taxes as well as higher price for goods due
to implementation of carbon taxation in Ontario and Alberta. The federals also eliminated the
last of the boutique tax credits via removing the transit tax credit starting July 1, 2017. The
transit tax credit saved the middle class about $400-600 year on their taxes.
• Goods producing sector is growing, but slowly.
• Household debt it is at highest level in over a decade
• USA has yet to implement tax reforms which could drive both business investment and consumer
spending
• Ontario Liberals are handing out money as part of the re-election campaign. Ontario Liberals
have yet to bring in compensation reform as part of managing public vs private sector
compensation