Retail sales in Canada were up in March 2017 compared to February 2017. The document then provides details on retail sales numbers and trends from various sources such as Stats Canada and BMO Economics. It notes that automotive sales are driving overall retail sales growth, while food sales growth has slowed. It also discusses household debt levels in Canada and forecasts that many Canadians may face financial difficulties if interest rates rise significantly in the future. The document concludes by comparing e-commerce sales and trends in Canada versus the United States.

1. MARCH 2017 RETAIL SALES
ARE UP OVER FEBRUARY
2017 – CANADA
PAUL YOUNG CPA, CGA
MAY 17, 2017

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. CANADA RETAIL SALES
• Source – Stats Canada Daily

4. BMO / CANADA RETAIL SALES
• Source – BMO Economics
• Automotive sales are driving Retail
Sales
• Food is only up 1.3% for the past
twelve months
• Big Ticket items like furniture and
electronics are up. Big time items
usually mean people are paying with
credit and not cash

5. HOUSEHOLD DEBT
• Source - https://thewalrus.ca/canadas-middle-class-is-on-the-brink-of-ruin/
Last year, the federal government’s Parliamentary Budget Officer (pbo)
predicted that the moment of reckoning for our borrowing binge will come in
2020. That’s the year when, according to pbo forecasts, the percentage of
disposable income that Canadians spend servicing debt will hit 15.9 percent,
up from 14.1 percent today. In that scenario, “the financial vulnerability of the
average household would rise to levels beyond historical experience.” It’s
difficult to say what would happen next. A banking panic? An economic
slowdown as spending stops? For Louis-Philippe Rochon, an economist at
Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, the number to watch is the interest
rate, which pboanticipates will return to “normal levels”—rising from the
current crisis-era 2.5 percent to 5 percent. “That’s going to translate into
several million defaults and problem loans and mortgages,” Rochon said. “It’s
going to engineer a crisis. We’re in a very, very sensitive time.”

6. CANADA RETAIL SALES – PROVINCIAL CHANGE – MONTH
OVER MONTH
• Source – Stats Canada Daily

7. CANADA RETAIL SALES BY SEGMENT
• Source – Stats Canada Daily

8. CANADA RETAIL SALES BY SECTOR (MONTH OVER
MONTH CHANGE)
• Source – Stats Canada Daily

9. ECOMMERCE / CANADA
• https://www.therecord.com/news-story/7312657-e-commerce-goes-north-forcing-canada-s-retailers-
out-of-hibernation/
After years in which e-commerce seemed like an afterthought for many Canadian stores, more
retailers are making the pricey investments in online shopping platforms that are needed to
attend to a vast and sparely populated country. As Amazon steadily ramps up its own
operations in Canada, local rivals are scrambling to avoid the same sort of fate that doomed
many of their counterparts south of the border.
"They can look at what's happening in the U.S., they can look at what's happening in other
markets, and almost get a road map of realizing, 'This is going to happen to me, too, if I don't
change my practices,'" said Robin Sherk, a Toronto-based director of digital and retail insights
at consulting firm Kantar Retail.
Retailers have a lot of catching up to do. Canadians spent $26.6 billion shopping online last
year, or about $730 per capita, according to researcher eMarketer and Bloomberg calculations.
That's far off from the $1,230 that U.S. consumers spent on average, and it masks a quirk in
Canada's e-commerce network. Some prominent retailers, such as Canadian Tire, let buyers
place their orders online, jump in their cars and pick up the goods themselves instead of having
them delivered.
KW Record – May 12, 2017

10. USA ECOMMERCE
• Source - https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2017/05/16/u-s-e-commerce-posts-14-8-growth-in-q1/
Ecommerce had another big quarter, as the U.S. Commerce Department
reported Tuesday that online retail sales reached $98.06 billion in the first
three months of 2017, a 14.8% increase compared with $85.43 billion in
the same quarter a year ago.
Total retail sales excluding foodservice reached $1.163 trillion during the
three months ended March 31, a 3.7% increase from $1.122 trillion a year
ago. That means e-commerce accounted for approximately 8.4% of total
retail sales. However, those figures from the Commerce Department
include the sale of items not normally bought online, including fuel and
automobiles.