This document discusses the socio-economic costs of terrorism in Pakistan. It summarizes that terrorism has had huge economic costs for Pakistan, estimated at $35-40 billion since 2001. Key costs include reduced investment, lower GDP growth, decline in key industries like agriculture and manufacturing. Agriculture has been especially hard hit in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, with estimated losses of $35 billion and 55-70% reductions in fruit production in Swat. Manufacturing has seen its lowest share of GDP in 5 years at 18.2% due to instability and uncertainty from terrorism. Overall, economic growth fell to its lowest rate in a decade of 2% in 2008-09 due largely to the impacts of fighting terrorism
The document discusses terrorism in India and strategies to address it. It notes that terrorism in India includes both external terrorism from neighboring countries and internal terrorism due to religious/communal violence and Naxalite-Maoist insurgency. Regions most affected are Jammu and Kashmir, parts of central India experiencing Naxalism, and northeast states seeing independence movements. The government has proposed a three-pronged strategy - gain confidence of local people, build infrastructure in affected areas to generate jobs, and launch joint security operations with neighboring states.
POLITICAL INSTABITLIY, DEFENSE SPENDING AND ITS IMPACTS (PAKISTAN)Arshad Ahmed Saeed
Political instability and high defense spending in Pakistan have negatively impacted economic growth. A large portion of GDP is spent on defense, reducing resources available for development and investment. While defense spending can increase employment and infrastructure, it diverts funds away from economic growth. Political instability, which Pakistan has experienced since independence due to conflicts among parties and groups, affects macroeconomic policies and contributes to low investment, high inflation, and reduced growth. Both political instability and high defense spending misallocate resources and lower productivity and efficiency.
SECCON 2014 - Terrorism Dimensions – Countering the threat of terrorism ‘Stra...MesseIntl
Terrorism Dimensions – Countering the threat of terrorism ‘Strategies - Achieving nation security’
Sardar Shoukat Popalzai
President, Balochistan Economic Forum
Topics Covered:
• Terrorism Dimensions
• Global Insight on Terrorism
• Domestic Dimensions of Terrorism
• Countering Terrorism
• Terrorism: A Challenge to Political Government
• Terrorism Economic impact
• Terrorism & Media
Russian Foreign Policy during Yeltsin and Putin. Comparative analysisValeriia Didkovska
Domestic Regime, its interests and External Actions.
State vs. Oligarchs, shifts in FP from Yeltsin's to Putin's era, regime type in modern Russia, corporatist-kleptocratic influence on FP
Pakistan: the political, economic, security and trade control context relevant to defence, security and dual use exporters, clarifying what are the main areas of opportunity and risk
The purpose of this research is to evaluate the economic situation of Kyrgyzstan and its attraction
of foreign direct investment (FDI), to provide a clear view of Kyrgyz economy‟s potential and the prospective
of further development of the Kyrgyz economy with FDI.
This document summarizes the convergence of China's ambitious economic globalization strategy and the expanding aspirations of ISIS to create a global caliphate. It discusses China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through infrastructure and trade corridors. It also outlines ISIS's declared plans to expand its control from the Middle East to Central, South and Southeast Asia. The document warns that as China's economic strategy pushes further abroad through initiatives like the Silk Road Economic Belt, it will increasingly intersect with ISIS and other terrorist groups in regions like Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. How this convergence develops could pose security risks to Chinese interests abroad.
Terrorism : Media & Current Affairs : Student CollaborationAli Haider Saeed
An illustration of student-teacher collaborative discussion model in the subject of Media & Current Affairs during the Fall session 2020, Students engaged in the discussion on Impacts of Terrorism in Pakistan
The document discusses terrorism in India and strategies to address it. It notes that terrorism in India includes both external terrorism from neighboring countries and internal terrorism due to religious/communal violence and Naxalite-Maoist insurgency. Regions most affected are Jammu and Kashmir, parts of central India experiencing Naxalism, and northeast states seeing independence movements. The government has proposed a three-pronged strategy - gain confidence of local people, build infrastructure in affected areas to generate jobs, and launch joint security operations with neighboring states.
POLITICAL INSTABITLIY, DEFENSE SPENDING AND ITS IMPACTS (PAKISTAN)Arshad Ahmed Saeed
Political instability and high defense spending in Pakistan have negatively impacted economic growth. A large portion of GDP is spent on defense, reducing resources available for development and investment. While defense spending can increase employment and infrastructure, it diverts funds away from economic growth. Political instability, which Pakistan has experienced since independence due to conflicts among parties and groups, affects macroeconomic policies and contributes to low investment, high inflation, and reduced growth. Both political instability and high defense spending misallocate resources and lower productivity and efficiency.
SECCON 2014 - Terrorism Dimensions – Countering the threat of terrorism ‘Stra...MesseIntl
Terrorism Dimensions – Countering the threat of terrorism ‘Strategies - Achieving nation security’
Sardar Shoukat Popalzai
President, Balochistan Economic Forum
Topics Covered:
• Terrorism Dimensions
• Global Insight on Terrorism
• Domestic Dimensions of Terrorism
• Countering Terrorism
• Terrorism: A Challenge to Political Government
• Terrorism Economic impact
• Terrorism & Media
Russian Foreign Policy during Yeltsin and Putin. Comparative analysisValeriia Didkovska
Domestic Regime, its interests and External Actions.
State vs. Oligarchs, shifts in FP from Yeltsin's to Putin's era, regime type in modern Russia, corporatist-kleptocratic influence on FP
Pakistan: the political, economic, security and trade control context relevant to defence, security and dual use exporters, clarifying what are the main areas of opportunity and risk
The purpose of this research is to evaluate the economic situation of Kyrgyzstan and its attraction
of foreign direct investment (FDI), to provide a clear view of Kyrgyz economy‟s potential and the prospective
of further development of the Kyrgyz economy with FDI.
This document summarizes the convergence of China's ambitious economic globalization strategy and the expanding aspirations of ISIS to create a global caliphate. It discusses China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative to connect Asia, Europe and Africa through infrastructure and trade corridors. It also outlines ISIS's declared plans to expand its control from the Middle East to Central, South and Southeast Asia. The document warns that as China's economic strategy pushes further abroad through initiatives like the Silk Road Economic Belt, it will increasingly intersect with ISIS and other terrorist groups in regions like Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. How this convergence develops could pose security risks to Chinese interests abroad.
Terrorism : Media & Current Affairs : Student CollaborationAli Haider Saeed
An illustration of student-teacher collaborative discussion model in the subject of Media & Current Affairs during the Fall session 2020, Students engaged in the discussion on Impacts of Terrorism in Pakistan
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, CASE STUD...giorgi lomidze
This document is a dissertation submitted by Giorgi Lomidze to the University of East Anglia in partial fulfillment of an MSc degree. The dissertation examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Georgia from 1997 to 2013 through a literature review and empirical analysis. The dissertation contains 7236 words divided among sections on the abstract, introduction, literature review, model specification and data, empirical results, conclusion, and bibliography. Lomidze conducted the research under the supervision of Dr. Duncan Watson.
Pak-National Security: Internal and External dimensionsDr Shahzad Aslam
The document outlines the composition and agenda of working groups formed as part of a national security workshop in Pakistan. It discusses increasing militarization of internal security and its implications. The working groups will evaluate issues such as the impact of militarization, devising border security strategies, and handling proscribed organizations. They will propose recommendations to strengthen civilian law enforcement and reduce excessive reliance on armed forces for domestic security matters.
The document provides background information on foreign direct investment (FDI) and discusses the importance of FDI to developing economies like Nigeria. It notes that Nigeria suffers from capital scarcity due to low domestic savings. While FDI can help boost capital levels and economic growth, insecurity poses challenges to Nigeria's investment climate and has led to declining FDI. The study aims to examine the impact of insecurity on FDI in Nigeria, particularly in the manufacturing and communication sectors, in order to improve economic growth and development. It outlines the statement of the problem, research questions, objectives, hypotheses and significance of the study.
Pakistan's economy faces several challenges:
- It imports more than it exports, consuming more than it saves, while government spending exceeds revenues.
- Its share of world trade is shrinking while social indicators lag behind countries with similar incomes.
- It struggles with energy and water shortages due to inefficiencies and unequal distribution.
- Political instability, security issues, and poor law and order deter investment and economic progress.
To strengthen the economy, Pakistan must boost exports over imports, increase domestic savings and investment, improve social sectors like education and healthcare, address energy and water shortages, and ensure greater political stability and security to attract more investment.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment volatility evidenc...Alexander Decker
This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria from 1986-2011. It finds that macroeconomic variables like interest rates, inflation rates, market capitalization rates, exchange rates, and GDP, as well as FPI, are all highly volatile and respond asymmetrically to new information. A stable macroeconomic environment is necessary for steady FPI inflows, while steady FPI inflows also contribute to some level of macroeconomic stability. The study recommends monitoring insider activities in the capital market and balancing economic growth policies with price stability policies.
Domestic Vs International Remittance flow: Economic Analysis of the Value of ...iosrjce
International migration from Bangladesh has become a defining characteristic of the country and is
considered to be an important livelihood earning strategy for the people. Especially since 1980s, large
scale labour migration has become a common phenomenon of Bangladesh. This paper has examined the
financial benefit receipt between the domestic and the international migration. Financial benefit is measured in
terms of the value of remittance transfer from the migrants. An ordinary least square (OLS) model is used to
estimate the objectives of the study. For this purpose secondary dataset has been used from the Household
Income Expenditure Survey (HIES 2010) from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Two types of migration
have been considered in the paper – domestic and International migration. The affiliated cost of holding a
passport, completion of visa procedure, transportation, and accommodation distinguishes international
migration from domestic migration. There has been significant transfer of domestic remittance from urban to
rural/sub-urban areas of Bangladesh but nevertheless the term remittance popularly known as value (both in
cash and kind) transferred from abroad. The paper suggests households receive significantly high remittance
from international migrants than domestic migrants. Hence the rational instinct of a human being is to migrate
himself internationally. Besides, migrants with higher level of education send more remittance to households
regardless of domestic or international migration.
This document summarizes a lecture given by Meekal Aziz Ahmed on Pakistan's relationship with the IMF. Some key points:
- Pakistan has had a long history of IMF programs to address economic crises, but implementation of reforms has been lacking.
- The 2008 economic crisis compelled Pakistan to seek IMF assistance due to high inflation, deficits, and declining foreign reserves.
- IMF programs aim to stabilize Pakistan's economy but have had limited long-term impact due to weak ownership of reforms and rollbacks after programs end.
- While IMF conditionality and influence are often criticized, programs also provide flexibility and the economy responds well to adjustments, though gains are not sustained.
Foreign capital flows depends on the prevailing monetary forces as supported by capital flows
theory and the mechanism linking these two variables is that contraction of net domestic assets through an
open market sale of bonds will place upward pressure on domestic interest rates. Higher interest rates attract
foreign funds, generating a capital inflow which relieves the pressure on domestic interest rates. Has this
actually happened? It is against this backdrop that the present study investigated the impact of monetary policy
on international capital inflows in Nigeria for a period of 22 years (1994-2015) using time series data. The
autoregressive distributed lag technique revealed that the short-run and long-run significant determinants of
foreign capital inflows are largely from broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest
rates spread except inflation rate that is insignificant in the long-run. This outcome upholds theoretical
prediction. Long-run equilibrium relationship was found between the dependent variable and the regressors.
Further examination of the short run dynamics of the model showed that the speed of adjustment coefficients
ECM (-1) to restore equilibrium have a negative sign and statistically significant at 1% level, ensuring that
long-run equilibrium can be attained and about 89% of the short-run deviation from the equilibrium (long-run)
position is corrected annually to maintain the equilibrium. Since the empirical evidence revealed that monetary
aggregates such as broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rates spread
influence foreign capital inflows, it is therefore recommended that government should continue to pursue
expansionary monetary policy and foreign exchange policies that would ensure competitiveness of the
economy in order to attract the much needed foreign capital inflows that would engender economic growth.
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
The 2009 Afghanistan Report provides an overview of progress in 2008 in the areas of security, governance, and reconstruction/development. Regarding security, violence increased sharply in parts of southern/eastern Afghanistan but large areas in the north/center/west remained stable. The Afghan security forces grew in capability and assumed control of security in Kabul. NATO-ISAF force levels and coordination with Pakistan also increased. Governance capacity remained limited and hampered by corruption, but the government extended its reach and international programs helped build state institutions. Reconstruction continued from a low base, with GDP growth and increased trade and pledges of $21 billion in aid at a 2008 donor conference.
Foreign Investment and Its Effect on the Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Triang...iosrjce
Evidence abound about the registered increase in foreign investment inflows in recent years. While
proponents emphasize that these inflows could engender economic growth, critics express concern that there
could be destabilizing effect on the economy if not well managed. This study therefore, attempts to examine the
effect of foreign investments (disaggregated into foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment)
inflows on economic growth in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the better contributor, using time series data
from 1987-2012. The OLS and the Granger causality procedures were employed in analyzing the data. The
result displays that both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment have positive and significant
effect on economic growth though the partial correlation coefficients show that foreign portfolio investment is
the better contributor. Based on the result, government should pursue policies that encourage both foreign
direct investment and especially foreign portfolio investment.
7 Use the Johnson transformation method to Estimation the impact FDI on Econo...INFOGAIN PUBLICATION
The relationship between investment and development of close relations in economic thought, foreign investment have been associated by the development of international trade, and helped to spread and increasing rates emergence transnational corporations National Furthermore mergers and acquisitions across borders, including the purchase of foreign investors Government Organizations that have been privatized, Has used the most of the world foreign capital to modernize and develop its production facilities and other components of the national economy, and foreign investment played an important role in economic development projects for the host countries if they have done these countries to choose their projects and their foreign partners, Investing can close the gap of resources and capabilities that are not available in the receiving countries, The research problem in that Economics sectors be affected by a lot of factors that affect one way or another by and by certain of these factors is not economic, so there are major factors leading to development and growth to the desired goal final namely economic well-being and these important factors is foreign direct investment (FDI) The orientation of the plan drawn about the problems and economic critical points, it leads to the activation of the entire economy, The research aims to targets several of them process the data to make it distributed naturally using functions transfers Johnson three SL, SU, SB, as well as estimate the econometrics models represent the relationship between foreign direct investment as an independent variable economic indicators for Pakistan country
Dissertation fdi-foreign-direct-investmentTutors India
We write abstract for your master’s dissertation which would approximately contain 250 to 350 words. We complete the abstract after the full dissertation has been written that includes a brief summary of introduction or background, objectives, boundaries, methodology, the results of the dissertation research, main conclusion that you arrive, and recommendations
Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Foreign Portfolio in NigeriaMoses Oduh
1) This study examines the long-run determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria from 1981-2010 using time series analysis.
2) It finds that foreign portfolio investment has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization and trade openness in Nigeria.
3) The study aims to help policymakers pursue policies that can attract more foreign portfolio investment in the long run, such as efforts to improve and sanitize the Nigerian capital market.
0601031 business opportunities in afganistan.docSupa Buoy
Hi Friends
This is supa bouy
I am a mentor, Friend for all Management Aspirants, Any query related to anything in Management, Do write me @ supabuoy@gmail.com.
I will try to assist the best way I can.
Cheers to lyf…!!!
Supa Bouy
Does Macroeconomic factors Impact on Foreign Direct Investment in emerging ec...AI Publications
Foreign direct investment is essential for economic growth of a country. It acts as a promoter for the economic development of a country. Keeping this in mind, the objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, real exchange rate,inflation rate and stock market on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. For this purpose,study used the authentic annual data for the period of 27 years i.e. from 1990-2016. We are use for analysis E-View software, The empirical analysis involved using the ADF test to check the stationary of the data.Results revealed that interest rate and exchange rate have significant negative effect on FDI and stock market index has negative and unsignificant effect on FDI while inflation rate has positive and significant effect on FDI.
Presentation on Economics Growth of BangladeshJafor Sadik
The document discusses the economic growth of Bangladesh. It notes that Bangladesh has experienced average GDP growth of 5.4% in recent years, driven by development of microcredit and the garment industry. However, challenges remain including overpopulation, poor infrastructure, corruption, and political instability. Key constraints to improving growth are increasing export competitiveness, developing the financial sector, improving education and rural development, and investing in transportation infrastructure like roads, railways and inland waterways.
Impact of political stability on the macroeconomic variables and FDI of Pakis...journal ijrtem
Abstract: In this paper we have discussed the vital role of political stability on the link between macroeconomic variables and FDI .For this purpose we have used a data of year 1991 to 2011.In this empirical analysis we have used ADF test for the checking the stationary of the data and other software’s are SPSS and eviews.This result of this study have made sure that import ,BOP, export and GDP growth rate have significant impact on the FDI inflows in the Pakistan and inflation has a negative impact on the FDI based on this research has proved that political stability is crucial for the expansion of foreign direct investment.
Keywords: political stability, ADF, BOP, crucial etc.
This document provides an overview of LinkedIn and how to optimize a LinkedIn profile. It discusses editing important profile sections like the headline, summary, skills, and experience. It also covers how to get recommendations, grow your network by connecting with others, and use advanced search and the "How You're Connected" feature to find ideal clients. The overall goals are to get more active on LinkedIn and feel confident and competent in using it to connect and get business.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, CASE STUD...giorgi lomidze
This document is a dissertation submitted by Giorgi Lomidze to the University of East Anglia in partial fulfillment of an MSc degree. The dissertation examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Georgia from 1997 to 2013 through a literature review and empirical analysis. The dissertation contains 7236 words divided among sections on the abstract, introduction, literature review, model specification and data, empirical results, conclusion, and bibliography. Lomidze conducted the research under the supervision of Dr. Duncan Watson.
Pak-National Security: Internal and External dimensionsDr Shahzad Aslam
The document outlines the composition and agenda of working groups formed as part of a national security workshop in Pakistan. It discusses increasing militarization of internal security and its implications. The working groups will evaluate issues such as the impact of militarization, devising border security strategies, and handling proscribed organizations. They will propose recommendations to strengthen civilian law enforcement and reduce excessive reliance on armed forces for domestic security matters.
The document provides background information on foreign direct investment (FDI) and discusses the importance of FDI to developing economies like Nigeria. It notes that Nigeria suffers from capital scarcity due to low domestic savings. While FDI can help boost capital levels and economic growth, insecurity poses challenges to Nigeria's investment climate and has led to declining FDI. The study aims to examine the impact of insecurity on FDI in Nigeria, particularly in the manufacturing and communication sectors, in order to improve economic growth and development. It outlines the statement of the problem, research questions, objectives, hypotheses and significance of the study.
Pakistan's economy faces several challenges:
- It imports more than it exports, consuming more than it saves, while government spending exceeds revenues.
- Its share of world trade is shrinking while social indicators lag behind countries with similar incomes.
- It struggles with energy and water shortages due to inefficiencies and unequal distribution.
- Political instability, security issues, and poor law and order deter investment and economic progress.
To strengthen the economy, Pakistan must boost exports over imports, increase domestic savings and investment, improve social sectors like education and healthcare, address energy and water shortages, and ensure greater political stability and security to attract more investment.
Macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment volatility evidenc...Alexander Decker
This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria from 1986-2011. It finds that macroeconomic variables like interest rates, inflation rates, market capitalization rates, exchange rates, and GDP, as well as FPI, are all highly volatile and respond asymmetrically to new information. A stable macroeconomic environment is necessary for steady FPI inflows, while steady FPI inflows also contribute to some level of macroeconomic stability. The study recommends monitoring insider activities in the capital market and balancing economic growth policies with price stability policies.
Domestic Vs International Remittance flow: Economic Analysis of the Value of ...iosrjce
International migration from Bangladesh has become a defining characteristic of the country and is
considered to be an important livelihood earning strategy for the people. Especially since 1980s, large
scale labour migration has become a common phenomenon of Bangladesh. This paper has examined the
financial benefit receipt between the domestic and the international migration. Financial benefit is measured in
terms of the value of remittance transfer from the migrants. An ordinary least square (OLS) model is used to
estimate the objectives of the study. For this purpose secondary dataset has been used from the Household
Income Expenditure Survey (HIES 2010) from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). Two types of migration
have been considered in the paper – domestic and International migration. The affiliated cost of holding a
passport, completion of visa procedure, transportation, and accommodation distinguishes international
migration from domestic migration. There has been significant transfer of domestic remittance from urban to
rural/sub-urban areas of Bangladesh but nevertheless the term remittance popularly known as value (both in
cash and kind) transferred from abroad. The paper suggests households receive significantly high remittance
from international migrants than domestic migrants. Hence the rational instinct of a human being is to migrate
himself internationally. Besides, migrants with higher level of education send more remittance to households
regardless of domestic or international migration.
This document summarizes a lecture given by Meekal Aziz Ahmed on Pakistan's relationship with the IMF. Some key points:
- Pakistan has had a long history of IMF programs to address economic crises, but implementation of reforms has been lacking.
- The 2008 economic crisis compelled Pakistan to seek IMF assistance due to high inflation, deficits, and declining foreign reserves.
- IMF programs aim to stabilize Pakistan's economy but have had limited long-term impact due to weak ownership of reforms and rollbacks after programs end.
- While IMF conditionality and influence are often criticized, programs also provide flexibility and the economy responds well to adjustments, though gains are not sustained.
Foreign capital flows depends on the prevailing monetary forces as supported by capital flows
theory and the mechanism linking these two variables is that contraction of net domestic assets through an
open market sale of bonds will place upward pressure on domestic interest rates. Higher interest rates attract
foreign funds, generating a capital inflow which relieves the pressure on domestic interest rates. Has this
actually happened? It is against this backdrop that the present study investigated the impact of monetary policy
on international capital inflows in Nigeria for a period of 22 years (1994-2015) using time series data. The
autoregressive distributed lag technique revealed that the short-run and long-run significant determinants of
foreign capital inflows are largely from broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest
rates spread except inflation rate that is insignificant in the long-run. This outcome upholds theoretical
prediction. Long-run equilibrium relationship was found between the dependent variable and the regressors.
Further examination of the short run dynamics of the model showed that the speed of adjustment coefficients
ECM (-1) to restore equilibrium have a negative sign and statistically significant at 1% level, ensuring that
long-run equilibrium can be attained and about 89% of the short-run deviation from the equilibrium (long-run)
position is corrected annually to maintain the equilibrium. Since the empirical evidence revealed that monetary
aggregates such as broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rates spread
influence foreign capital inflows, it is therefore recommended that government should continue to pursue
expansionary monetary policy and foreign exchange policies that would ensure competitiveness of the
economy in order to attract the much needed foreign capital inflows that would engender economic growth.
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
The 2009 Afghanistan Report provides an overview of progress in 2008 in the areas of security, governance, and reconstruction/development. Regarding security, violence increased sharply in parts of southern/eastern Afghanistan but large areas in the north/center/west remained stable. The Afghan security forces grew in capability and assumed control of security in Kabul. NATO-ISAF force levels and coordination with Pakistan also increased. Governance capacity remained limited and hampered by corruption, but the government extended its reach and international programs helped build state institutions. Reconstruction continued from a low base, with GDP growth and increased trade and pledges of $21 billion in aid at a 2008 donor conference.
Foreign Investment and Its Effect on the Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Triang...iosrjce
Evidence abound about the registered increase in foreign investment inflows in recent years. While
proponents emphasize that these inflows could engender economic growth, critics express concern that there
could be destabilizing effect on the economy if not well managed. This study therefore, attempts to examine the
effect of foreign investments (disaggregated into foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment)
inflows on economic growth in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the better contributor, using time series data
from 1987-2012. The OLS and the Granger causality procedures were employed in analyzing the data. The
result displays that both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment have positive and significant
effect on economic growth though the partial correlation coefficients show that foreign portfolio investment is
the better contributor. Based on the result, government should pursue policies that encourage both foreign
direct investment and especially foreign portfolio investment.
7 Use the Johnson transformation method to Estimation the impact FDI on Econo...INFOGAIN PUBLICATION
The relationship between investment and development of close relations in economic thought, foreign investment have been associated by the development of international trade, and helped to spread and increasing rates emergence transnational corporations National Furthermore mergers and acquisitions across borders, including the purchase of foreign investors Government Organizations that have been privatized, Has used the most of the world foreign capital to modernize and develop its production facilities and other components of the national economy, and foreign investment played an important role in economic development projects for the host countries if they have done these countries to choose their projects and their foreign partners, Investing can close the gap of resources and capabilities that are not available in the receiving countries, The research problem in that Economics sectors be affected by a lot of factors that affect one way or another by and by certain of these factors is not economic, so there are major factors leading to development and growth to the desired goal final namely economic well-being and these important factors is foreign direct investment (FDI) The orientation of the plan drawn about the problems and economic critical points, it leads to the activation of the entire economy, The research aims to targets several of them process the data to make it distributed naturally using functions transfers Johnson three SL, SU, SB, as well as estimate the econometrics models represent the relationship between foreign direct investment as an independent variable economic indicators for Pakistan country
Dissertation fdi-foreign-direct-investmentTutors India
We write abstract for your master’s dissertation which would approximately contain 250 to 350 words. We complete the abstract after the full dissertation has been written that includes a brief summary of introduction or background, objectives, boundaries, methodology, the results of the dissertation research, main conclusion that you arrive, and recommendations
Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Foreign Portfolio in NigeriaMoses Oduh
1) This study examines the long-run determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria from 1981-2010 using time series analysis.
2) It finds that foreign portfolio investment has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization and trade openness in Nigeria.
3) The study aims to help policymakers pursue policies that can attract more foreign portfolio investment in the long run, such as efforts to improve and sanitize the Nigerian capital market.
0601031 business opportunities in afganistan.docSupa Buoy
Hi Friends
This is supa bouy
I am a mentor, Friend for all Management Aspirants, Any query related to anything in Management, Do write me @ supabuoy@gmail.com.
I will try to assist the best way I can.
Cheers to lyf…!!!
Supa Bouy
Does Macroeconomic factors Impact on Foreign Direct Investment in emerging ec...AI Publications
Foreign direct investment is essential for economic growth of a country. It acts as a promoter for the economic development of a country. Keeping this in mind, the objective of this study is to determine the effect of macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, real exchange rate,inflation rate and stock market on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. For this purpose,study used the authentic annual data for the period of 27 years i.e. from 1990-2016. We are use for analysis E-View software, The empirical analysis involved using the ADF test to check the stationary of the data.Results revealed that interest rate and exchange rate have significant negative effect on FDI and stock market index has negative and unsignificant effect on FDI while inflation rate has positive and significant effect on FDI.
Presentation on Economics Growth of BangladeshJafor Sadik
The document discusses the economic growth of Bangladesh. It notes that Bangladesh has experienced average GDP growth of 5.4% in recent years, driven by development of microcredit and the garment industry. However, challenges remain including overpopulation, poor infrastructure, corruption, and political instability. Key constraints to improving growth are increasing export competitiveness, developing the financial sector, improving education and rural development, and investing in transportation infrastructure like roads, railways and inland waterways.
Impact of political stability on the macroeconomic variables and FDI of Pakis...journal ijrtem
Abstract: In this paper we have discussed the vital role of political stability on the link between macroeconomic variables and FDI .For this purpose we have used a data of year 1991 to 2011.In this empirical analysis we have used ADF test for the checking the stationary of the data and other software’s are SPSS and eviews.This result of this study have made sure that import ,BOP, export and GDP growth rate have significant impact on the FDI inflows in the Pakistan and inflation has a negative impact on the FDI based on this research has proved that political stability is crucial for the expansion of foreign direct investment.
Keywords: political stability, ADF, BOP, crucial etc.
This document provides an overview of LinkedIn and how to optimize a LinkedIn profile. It discusses editing important profile sections like the headline, summary, skills, and experience. It also covers how to get recommendations, grow your network by connecting with others, and use advanced search and the "How You're Connected" feature to find ideal clients. The overall goals are to get more active on LinkedIn and feel confident and competent in using it to connect and get business.
The document summarizes the devastating impacts of the 2010 floods in Pakistan. It discusses how the floods affected over 18 million people, destroyed over 1.7 million homes, and killed nearly 2,000 people. The floods ravaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying over 3.6 million hectares of crops and wiping out 1.5 million livestock. The total estimated damages to agriculture were over $3 billion, including $2.8 billion in lost crops. In addition, the floods severely damaged Pakistan's irrigation systems and infrastructure.
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Justin Bieber nació en 1994 en Canadá. Aprendió a tocar varios instrumentos musicales desde una edad temprana. Fue descubierto en 2007 cantando en YouTube y firmó con un sello discográfico. Ha lanzado varios álbumes exitosos desde 2009 y ha recibido varios premios Grammy. Realizó su primer concierto en Chile en 2011.
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Military spending and economic growth in pakistanmnadeemmirza
This document discusses military spending and economic growth in Pakistan. It outlines three schools of thought on the relationship between military spending and economic growth: that military spending promotes growth, retards growth, or has no causal relationship with growth. The document argues that while military spending in Pakistan is seen as a burden, it can contribute to economic development in indirect ways such as technological advancement, security provision, and social projects. It suggests improving defense industrial capacity to increase arms exports and reduce dependence on other countries, thereby contributing to both economic development and growth in Pakistan.
Impact of terrorism on economy of pakistanMahnoor Ali
In this era, Terrorism can be called the one of the greatest means of destruction and disaster. A country’s internal and external infrastructure is directly affected by terrorist acts. All terrorist attacks whether local or international cause immediate human, economic and psychological repercussions of different intensity. The damage caused by the attacks does not stop right there but has many indirect costs. There are many issues due to which terrorism can arise such as poverty, unemployment, lack of health related facilities, illiteracy and lack of justice.
Terrorism is a major issue plaguing Pakistan. There are two broad categories of terrorism - internal and external. Internally, banned organizations like the Pakistani Taliban carry out attacks against civilians and infrastructure. Separatist groups in Balochistan also engage in terrorism. Externally, high profile attacks against leaders and military sites are often state sponsored. Terrorism has negatively impacted Pakistan's security, economy and tourism. The government has taken steps like military operations and madrassa reforms to counter terrorism, but more work is needed to solve the underlying political, economic and social issues fueling extremism.
Terrorism is a major issue in Pakistan. There are two broad categories of terrorism - internal and external. Internally, banned organizations like the Pakistani Taliban carry out attacks against civilians and infrastructure. Separatist groups in Balochistan also engage in terrorism. Externally, high profile attacks against leaders and military sites are often sponsored by foreign states seeking to destabilize Pakistan. Terrorism has had huge economic and social costs for Pakistan through decreased investment and tourism. The government has taken steps to curb it like military operations and madrassa reforms, but terrorism remains a severe threat to Pakistan's stability.
Economic terrorism aims to cripple a country's economy and defense capabilities. It causes massive long-lasting damage, as seen on 9/11. Terrorists prefer it to undermine states, spread fear among citizens, and cripple economies. In Pakistan, frequent suicide bombings have spread economic terrorism since 9/11. This has cost Pakistan tremendous economic and human losses, including billions in counterterrorism spending and declines in foreign investment, the tourism industry, and GDP growth. Pakistan now relies on foreign aid due to its weakened economic backbone from these attacks.
How does Terrorism Effect on Business and Relation Between Countriesijtsrd
The international business or IB is threatened by the indirect and direct effects of terrorism. Since the moment governments have tightened the safety of public sites, the various businesses have turned into exponential attractive targets for terrorist attacks, with vital implications for the performance and operations of the companies that are multinational in nature. Though, substantial studies have been done in different fields about terrorism, less scholarly research has been done on the various challenges which it inflicts upon international business as well as how to address terrorism as a problem. Through this particular article we would conceptualize the terrorism concerned with international business. The background on effects and dimensions of terrorism as well as developing theoretical grounding for researching terrorism by sketching on literature provided by international business, political science, economics and different sectors; shall be provided by us. Once discussion on findings from review of the literature is done, a comprehensive program for subsequent research concerning the connection between international business and terrorism is offered by us. The program that we offer emphasizes on the effects of organizational preparedness, terrorism, company performance and its strategy, global distribution and global supply channels, as well as the issues pertaining human resource. The review that we render, aid in establishing a baseline that further assists in empirical research in the future. This consistent with research in an early stage, international business scholars get encouragement to offer perspectives as well as effective solution that are useful and throw required light on the various aspects of terrorism and also aid in reducing its devastating effects for multinational firms and international business.. Prof. Sidharth S. Raju | Pooja"How does Terrorism Effect on Business and Relation Between Countries" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-1 | Issue-6 , October 2017, URL: http://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd4598.pdf http://www.ijtsrd.com/management/international-business-issues/4598/how-does-terrorism-effect-on-business-and-relation--between-countries/prof-sidharth-s-raju
Pakistan faces many domestic and international conflicts that undermine its potential for prosperity. These conflicts reflect deep divisions in society and have suppressed economic growth. A study analyzed Pakistan's private sector's role in achieving sustainable peace. It found that conflicts often arise from economic disparities. While businesses sometimes indirectly contribute to conflicts, communities welcome their involvement in development. The study recommends that businesses influence policy reform, invest in skills training, and partner with communities and governments to provide social services in a more inclusive manner to promote strategic peace.
Role of the Private Sector in Conflict Prevention in Pakistan
Safwan A. Khan
Vaqar Ahmed
Sustainable Development Policy Institute
Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, 3(1): 24, pp. 1-9, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/sta.dv
Law and order big challenge for pakistansaleem khan
The document discusses the law and order situation in Pakistan. It faces political and security uncertainties since its inception. Its strategic location also makes it susceptible to instability in neighboring countries like India, China, Afghanistan. The fight between political parties and sectarian violence have exacerbated targeting killing and bombings. This has negatively impacted the economy through reduced investments and growth. Improving the judicial system and having all stakeholders like political parties and security forces work together with effective plans is needed to address this major challenge facing Pakistan.
This paper explores the relationship between security and development, with a focus on how different types of violence inhibit development in fragile and conflict-affected states.
This paper is based upon a comprehensive literature review of separate pieces of research including academic studies, datasets and policy analysis. It explores statistics and figures that illustrate the barriers that insecurity poses to achieving development outcomes in fragile and conflict-afflicted states. It also examines these dynamics in detail in four countries: Afghanistan, Solomon Islands, South Sudan and Timor-Leste.
The assignment was not to come up with policy recommendations per se; rather it was to present a comprehensive synopsis of how different types of violence shackles and inhibits development in fragile and conflict-affected states. The research team believes that the material presented will be of use to inform policy debate and development, including in the field of security sector reform.
The analysis is contextualised by focusing on three types of violence: political, criminal and interpersonal. The barriers these different types of violence pose to development is presented throughout the report, and embedded in the country case studies.
The statistics uncovered in the course of the project are stark and unnerving. These statistics, among others, are used to highlight the barriers that different types of violence pose to development. It is not only the financial cost, but also the broader institutional and social costs that generate a series of barriers for meaningful development. Through synthesising these statistics, this paper contributes to the understandings of the links between security and development, paving way for policy recommendations and lines of action for Australia and development practitioners.
The document discusses the history and effects of terrorism in Pakistan. It begins with the Soviet war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, which led to millions of refugees fleeing to Pakistan. After the US invaded Afghanistan in 2001, terrorism increased in Pakistan. Drone strikes by the US have killed thousands of Pakistani civilians and fuelled terrorism. The economy has suffered enormously from the costs of fighting terrorism. Sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shias has also increased. The government is trying to negotiate with terrorist groups but the drone strikes undermine peace efforts. Overall, the document analyzes how terrorism has negatively impacted Pakistan's security, politics, economy and society.
Global Trends and Forecast Presentation / six cluster of threatsAsjadAli34
The document identifies six major clusters of threats facing the world now and in the future: 1) economic and social threats like poverty, disease, and environmental issues; 2) interstate conflicts between countries; 3) internal conflicts such as civil wars and genocides within countries; 4) nuclear, radiological, chemical, and biological weapons; 5) terrorism; and 6) transnational organized crime operating across international borders. It provides brief definitions and examples for some of these threats.
Factual Data on terrorism in Pakistan
Slides will cover;--
Definition of terrorism
Other Causes of Terrorism
Pakistan and Global Terrorism Index
Major Problems of Terrorism
Factual Data
Terrorism and Economic growth
National Action Plan
Army Courts
Afghan Migrants
International Conflicts and its Menacing Impact on Global Economy A Suggestiv...ijtsrd
The research is aimed at initially defining conflict and transmitting the idea emanated towards modern day international conflicts. It subsequently uncovered the types of such conflicts and their prevalence across the globe. The qualitative expectation of the conflict mechanism was subsequently represented in quantitative terms when the economic impact of the conflicts is assessed. The research performed a correlation analysis between two key indicators one of the key causes of economic cost which is military expenses and one major impact of the cost the capital formation. While analysing the result, we could reaffirm the fact that such relationship varies from countries of different strata. Hence the desired policy model with all encompassing ideological framework would also vary. Once the economic impacts have been quantified and the causal factors have been pointed out, we have suggested a 5 Dimensional model of policy consideration where the major ideological biases have been embedded for more efficient and conflict free international policy making. Avik Ghosh | Medha Ganguly Ghosh "International Conflicts and its Menacing Impact on Global Economy: A Suggestive Policy Making Model" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-6 , October 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd29364.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/political-science/29364/international-conflicts-and-its-menacing-impact-on-global-economy-a-suggestive-policy-making-model/avik-ghosh
Economic terroris and its impact on economy of pakistanAbdul Basit
This document discusses economic terrorism in Pakistan. It defines economic terrorism and explains why terrorists prefer it. Pakistan has faced significant economic terrorism through frequent suicide bombings since 9/11. This has cost Pakistan both economically and in loss of human life. Key impacts include declines in GDP growth and FDI. The document suggests Pakistan needs to focus on eliminating economic terrorism threats by improving security, increasing public awareness, and building greater trust with allies. Strong leadership and economic development are also needed to address the socio-economic root causes of terrorism like injustice, illiteracy, poverty, and dissatisfaction.
Globalization and Its Impact on Poverty in Pakistan(A Background Paper for t...idspak
This study looks at Pakistan’s experience in the light of the international experience and suggests key strategic steps that are necessary for Pakistan to maximize its growth and poverty reduction benefits from globalization.
This document discusses economic terrorism in Pakistan. It defines economic terrorism and explains why terrorists prefer it. Pakistan has faced significant economic terrorism through frequent suicide bombings since 9/11. This has cost Pakistan both economically and in loss of human life. Key impacts include declines in GDP growth and FDI. The tourism industry also suffered losses. Socio-economic factors that contribute to terrorism in Pakistan include injustice, illiteracy, poverty, food insecurity, and dissatisfaction. The document provides data on terrorist attacks and fatalities from 2003-2014 and concludes by suggesting the government focus on eliminating threats, increasing awareness, and building trust with allies.
The document discusses various types and causes of global terrorism, including political and non-political terrorism, state terrorism, and terrorist groups operating in different countries like Sri Lanka, China, Pakistan, India, and others. It also outlines counter-terrorism strategies used by governments, such as intelligence agencies, paramilitary forces, and international cooperation. Emerging threats discussed include cyber-terrorism, biological warfare, nuclear threats, corporate hijackings, and other forms of terrorism.
1. The document discusses whether it is time to reflect on reducing aid to Pakistan after Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad by U.S. special forces.
2. It argues that over the past two decades, and especially since 2001, development aid has become increasingly "securitized" and absorbed into security strategies and objectives, such as linking poverty to terrorism and directing aid to frontline states.
3. This creeping securitization of aid alters its institutions, practices, and discourses and risks subsuming its moral and humanitarian purposes to national strategic interests, with consequences for how aid is distributed. With bin Laden's death, it is an opportunity to reflect on dissolving the aid-
Now bin laden is dead is it time to reflect on the delinking of aid
Brief57B
1. Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU)
Brief Number 57
Socio Economic Cost of Terrorism: A
case study of Pakistan
Arshad Ali
11th
April 2010
2. 2
About the Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU)
The Pakistan Security Research Unit (PSRU) was established in the Department of Peace
Studies at the University of Bradford, UK, in March 2007. It serves as an independent
portal and neutral platform for interdisciplinary research on all aspects of Pakistani
security, dealing with Pakistan's impact on regional and global security, internal security
issues within Pakistan, and the interplay of the two. PSRU provides information about,
and critical analysis of, Pakistani security with particular emphasis on
extremism/terrorism, nuclear weapons issues, and the internal stability and cohesion of
the state. PSRU is intended as a resource for anyone interested in the security of Pakistan
and provides:
Briefing papers;
Reports;
Datasets;
Consultancy;
Academic, institutional and media links;
An open space for those working for positive change in Pakistan and for those
currently without a voice.
PSRU welcomes collaboration from individuals, groups and organisations, which share
our broad objectives. Please contact us at psru@bradford.ac.uk We welcome you to look
at the website available through: http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/display/ssispsru/Home
Other PSRU Publications
The following papers are freely available through the Pakistan Security Research Unit
(PSRU)
Report Number 1. The Jihadi Terrain in Pakistan: An Introduction to the
Sunni Jihadi Groups in Pakistan and Kashmir
Brief Number 45. India Pakistan. Friends, Rivals or Enemies?
Brief Number 46. Failed Take-Off: an Assessment of Pakistan’s October 2008
Economic Crisis.
Brief Number 47. Pakistan’s Army and National Stability.
Brief Number 48. One or many? The issue of the Taliban's unity and disunity.
Brief Number 49. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan: Ideology and Beliefs
Brief Number 50. Civil Society in Pakistan: Stake Holders in a Contested State
Brief Number 51. A Review of AfPak and the Ongoing Challenge of Pakistan
Brief Number 52. At the Precipice: Is Pakistan About to Fail?
Brief Number 54. Insurrection, Terrorism, and the Pakistan Army
Brief Number 55. Punjabi Taliban’ and the Sectarian Groups in Pakistan
Brief Number 56. Fighting Kufr and the American Raj:Hizb-ut-Tahrir in
Pakistan
All these papers are freely available from:
http://spaces.brad.ac.uk:8080/display/ssispsru/Home
3. 3
Socio Economic Cost of Terrorism: A case study of Pakistan
Arshad Ali1
Introduction
Presently the world is confronting terrorism in its different manifestations. After the
event of 9/11, this phenomenon of terrorism has abruptly changed the socio-economic
and geo-political situation of the world2
. Terrorist groups with global linkages are
utilising national territories for recruitment and training, exchanging illegal weapons,
and are engaged in joint planning and administrative and other logistic support3
.
Pakistan is one country badly affected by such dynamics hence acts of terrorism are
threatening Pakistan’s law and order situation, human rights, damaging basic
infrastructure and economic opportunities.
Pakistan is facing the menace of terrorism, which is eroding the social structure,
economic developments and political system. The immediate costs of terrorist acts are
loss of human lives, destruction of property and infrastructure and depression of
short-term economic activity. Additionally, terrorism creates uncertainty, reduces
confidence and increases risk perceptions leading to lower rates of investment and
lower economic growth4
. Pakistan has not only lost precious lives and infrastructure,
but also has borne a loss of around $ 35-40 billion since 2001-025
.
Pakistan's economic growth came to a near halt at 2.00 per cent in fiscal year 2009 not
only as a result of the global financial crisis but also because of internal issues. These
included a war on terror launched by security forces in North Western Frontier
Province (NWFP) and Federally Administrated Tribal Area (FATA) bordering
Afghanistan, and the resultant displacement of some three million people from their
homes6
. Both the war on terror as well as rehabilitation of internally displaced people
(IDPs) consumed a big chunk of the government's financial resources, thus widening
the fiscal deficit and halting economic growth.
With the threat of terrorism, normal businesses require more time and extra security
for their dealings and consumption activities. Thus, terrorism typically leads to a
general slowdown in economic activity. Moreover, the terrorists are challenging the
writ of the government by creating chaos and uncertain conditions, which badly affect
the perception of Pakistan in relation to attracting foreign direct investments (FDI).
This fell to $ 463 million during the first quarter as against $1.116 billion during the
1
Arshad Ali is a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Islamabad, Pakistan [ISSI]. The
views expressed are the author’s alone and should not be understood as reflecting the views of the
PSRU or of the University of Bradford.
2
S. Michael, Terrorism a Socio-Economic and Political Phenomenon with Special Reference to
Pakistan, Journal of Management and Social Sciences, Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2007) 35-46
3
A. shukla, Impact of Terrorism On Social, Economic And Legal Structure of The Countries Obstacle
to Global Peace, lecturer, Invertis Institute Of management Studies, Bareilly, 3 June, 2009
http://cportal.com/civilservices/mag/vol-3/article/Imapct-Of-Terrorism
4
G. Raby, The Costs of Terrorism and the Benefits of Cooperating to Combat Terrorism, Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Economic Analytical Unit, February 2003
5
War on terror cost Pakistani economy $40 bn: Minister, www.southasianews.com, 27 October, 2009
6
M. Aazim, Bangladesh outperforms Pakistan in FY 09, http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com
4. 4
same period last year, a decline of 58.5 per cent7
. Terrorist violence is bad for
business8
.
Against this background, recognizing and estimating the cost of terrorism is an
extremely difficult exercise. In addition, the absence of primary data makes
estimating the cost of terrorism to Pakistan becomes even more complex. The present
study should thus be treated as an attempt towards filling the knowledge gap in this
area, encouraging more sophisticated analyses for better frameworks and conflict cost
estimations.
Objective
In analyzing the costs of terrorism, this paper focuses on economic cost of terrorism
in Pakistan from a multi-dimensional perspective while highlighting the impact on
GDP growth. Additional emphasis will also be placed on FDI, tourism, as well as the
social sector.
Cost of Terrorism: an assessment
Assessing the economic cost of terrorism is a very difficult exercise, since terrorist
attack impose a number of significant costs on individuals, societies and states and
thereby substantially changed the economic and social structure of the country.
Cost assessment of terrorism
The analytical framework to estimate such figures must include a wide range of
impacts into such an analysis required. Some of the areas that can be included in this
framework are given below:
Types of Costs Impacts
Maintaining Law and
Order
Increased costs of maintaining law and order, including
military, para-military, police and associated judicial costs.
Humanitarian Aid: Conflict affectees, IDPs and refugees.
Fiscal Costs Including the impact on revenue and programmes to rebuild
growth and society.
Economic Costs Reduced investment, flight of capital and lower growth,
Social Costs The impact on living standards, including health, education
and wider aspects of vulnerability, taking into account the
fact that conflict often harms the poor most.
Cultural Costs Impact on social conventions and structures, which is often
severe and long-lasting.
Sources: Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft for
Discussion), http://cppr.edu.pk/download/Estimating%20Conflict%20Cost%20-2009-08-20.pdf
There are some other factors, which can also be taken into account, including
compensation to aggrieved parties and destroyed private infrastructure and related
expenses. Moreover, the cost of dislocation of populace and missed opportunities
7
S. Iqbal, Foreign Direct Investment falls by 58pc in first quarter, Dawn Report, 16 October, 2009
8
M.H. Khan, Socio-economic costs of terrorism with special reference to Pakistan, www.opfblog.com
5. 5
along with psychosocial cost, trauma, loss of loved ones, mental illness must also be
factored in such cost assessments9
.
Consequences of terrorism:
The burden upon a state trying to manage a terrorism problem may be enormous.
However, some economic consequences of terrorism are tabled below:
Economic Dimension Effect
Economic growth Negative, sometimes dramatically falls
Exports Negative, due to (i) production fall; (ii) shift to domestic
sales; (iii) disruptions in international markets
Sectoral distribution Shift from tradable to non-tradable sectors, due to e.g. the
undermining of banks and failure of transport system
Consumption Negative in spite of reduced domestic savings and increased
foreign borrowing and aid
Investment Sharp fall in government capital formation and private
investment, due to budgetary restrictions and increased
uncertainty
Budget deficit Increase, due to increased spending, while revenues do not
always fall
Distribution of
government Spending
Increased share allocated to the military, making it difficult
to sustain social and economic expenditure
Civic entitlements NGO efforts to provide food and services could in some
cases partially compensate for lost public entitlements, while
in other cases NGOs were able to do little, as communities
disintegrated
Human costs Heavy human costs-increased infant mortality rates,
deteriorating nutrition, health and educational standards, as a
result of falling entitlements and war-induced famines
Development costs Heavy development costs due to destruction of capital and
reduced investment.
Source: Based on Stewart and FitzGerald (2001), pp. 230-23210
Economic Cost of Terrorism
The ongoing insurgency has accelerated an already worsened economic situation and
has ruined almost every economic aspect of the country, particularly in FATA and
NWFP. Most main resources of revenue in the affected areas were destroyed
including agriculture, tourism industry, manufacture and small scale industry.
Primary Sector of Economy
Agriculture Sectors
Agriculture is the main source of revenue in the most terrorism affected areas, FATA
and NWFP. They predominantly rely on agriculture as their main economic activity.
The districts of Swat, Buner, Shangla and Lower Dir along with Malakand Agency
9
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft for
Discussion), http://cportal.com/civilservices/mag/vol-3/article/Imapct-Of-Terrorism
10
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft for
Discussion), http://cppr.edu.pk/download/Estimating%20Conflict%20Cost%20-2009-08-20.pdf
6. 6
are famous for their specialized agricultural produces all over the country. The
troubled belt contributes enormously to national production; Peach (60 per cent), Pear
(34 per cent), Tomato (18 per cent), Apple (15 per cent), Plum (14 per cent), Tobacco
(11 per cent), Maize (8 per cent), Onion (8 per cent), All vegetable (5 per cent),
Apricot (5 per cent), Wheat (1 per cent), and Rice (1 per cent)11
. The five districts are
also the main source of Persimmon (Japani fruit). Swat leads the other four districts
in production of fruits by a big margin. National Agricultural Research Center
(NARC) survey report shows that nearly 48 per cent of Pakistan’s total fruit is
produced by the NWFP, with the Swat district being a major contributor12
.
Swat has 98,100 hectares cultivable while 408,175 hectares remain uncultivable.
Agriculture is the main source of livelihood for 80 per cent of the population. In
overall provincial production of vegetables, one-fourth vegetable production comes
from Swat13
. These commodities arrive in markets when supplies from other corners
of the country are short. Normally 500 to 600 trucks transport fruit from Swat to the
rest of the country during the harvest season on a daily basis14
.
In addition, Swat’s farming system was seminal, and a model for NWFP in particular
and the country in general in pre-2001 period, since it was a centre of fruit orchards
coupled with multi utility processing industries, cold storages, huge dry storages and
an efficient transportation and marketing system. Swat was a training centre for
budding and grafting while the nursery industry of fruits was on rise. The experienced
budders worked in the rest of the province and even in Balochistan especially for
olives. Its plant nursery production ranked third in the country after Pathoki (Lahore)
and Tarnab (Peshawar)15
.
But due to the insurgency, Swat valley has been subject to continuous attacks since
2007. As per government of Pakistan estimates, loss to agriculture amounts to Rs. 35
billion. Local media, citing Swat-based agriculture officers, both public and private,
has reported that 55 to 70 per cent of the total fruit produce has been lost or wasted16
.
This was due to the use of force, artillery shelling, blowing of bridges in bomb blasts,
blockade of roads, attacks and curfew damaged the district fruit-based economy and
rendered billions of rupees of losses to the landowners, dealers and farmers. So it has
not only affected the land owners but also dealers and laborers who earn their
livelihood from these orchards.
In addition, the Economic Survey of Pakistan report shows that the share of
agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been falling persistently. It
accounted for 25.9 per cent of GDP in 1999-2000; however, gradually its share shrank
to 21.3 per cent in 2007-08 but improved slightly to 21.8 per cent of GDP in 2008-
0917
. The above figures show that it has not only decreased the productive capacity of
agricultural activity in these regions but also in the whole country.
11
Farmer Report, Conflict paralyzed agriculture desperate for support South Asia Partnership-
Pakistan - Punjab Lok Sujag; FR 09/09; June 2009.
12
Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager, CRSS, June 14, 2009
13
Ibid
14
F. M. Zahid, Impact of War in Swat valley on farming sector, AIRRA, April 2009
15
Ibid
16
Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager, CRSS, June 14, 2009
17
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
7. 7
Manufacturing Sector
The manufacturing sector has been hard hit by political instability and frequent
incidents of terrorism and has created an uncertain environment resulting into low
level of economic growth. It is witnessing its lowest ever share in the GDP of 18.2 per
cent in the last five years18
. In addition, the small and medium size enterprises are a
key area of manufacturing activity in Pakistan particularly in war affected areas.
Power looms, precious and semi precious stone mining, wood and marble work and
small units of consumer items are affected across the country because of power
shortages and frequent terrorist attacks in the country.
As a result, the mining and quarry sector has shown the lowest ever growth in almost
one decade and grew by only 1.3 per cent in 2008-09 as compared to 4.4 per cent
growth last year and a target of 5.0 per cent. The contribution of this sector towards
GDP has remained low at around 2.5 per cent19
. The following table 1, growth
performance of various sectors in Pakistan are helpful to evaluate the economic
situation of Pakistan in this period.
Table 1: Sectoral contribution to GDP growth (% points)
Sectors 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Agriculture 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.24 1.00
Industry 3.1 1.1 2.3 0.45 -0.92
Manufacturing 2.7 1.6 1.6 0.91 -0.64
Services 4.4 3.3 3.6 3.41 1.92
Real GDP (FC) 9.0 5.8 6.8 4.10 2.00
Sources: Federal bureau of Statistics
According to the Finance Minister, Shaukat Tarin, financial year 2008-09 was the
worst economic year of the decade as real economic growth was lowest in last eight
years and has fallen to 2.0 per cent, against the average of 6.3 per cent in last six
years20
. It is also apprehended that one of the prime contributors to this derailing is
Pakistan’s proactive role in war against terror in NWFP and FATA. In addition,
Pakistan bears the cost of around $40 billion since 2001-02 for countering the war21
.
Pakistan economy is also suffering $6 billion export losses per annum22
.
Direct and Indirect Cost of Terrorism
Terrorism has both direct and indirect cost for economy. The direct costs of terrorism
include human casualties, collateral damage of the destruction of infrastructure,
factories and standing crops and the interruption of economic activities. The indirect
costs include falls in investment, inability to proceed with development work, loss of
production time, increase in unemployment and high cost of supporting displaced
persons.
With expanding insurgency in the tribal belt and increasing acts of terrorism in
Pakistan the direct and indirect costs are growing steeply. According to the Economic
18
Ibid
19
Ibid
20
Status quo is maintained in fiscal year 2010 budget:
http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/Dawn%2...-and-beyond--il
21
War on terror cost Pakistani economy $40 bn: Minister, www.southasianews.com, 27 October, 2009
22
'War on terror causing $6 billion losses in exports annually', brecorder report, 20 August, 2009
8. 8
Survey, Pakistan has been the largest victim of war against terrorism. Pakistan’s
economy has lost significant momentum of economic growth since 2007. The
Institute of Public Policy of Beacon House National University annual report
estimates the cost of the war on terror in Pakistan to be $31.4 billion since 2004-05,
far in excess of the assistance of $1.7 billion annually23
. A clearer picture can be seen
in the following table.
Table 2: Cost of Conflict to Pakistan (Rs. Billion)
Cost 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
Direct
Cost
67.103 78.060 82.499 108.527 114.033
Indirect
Cost
192.000 222.720 278.400 375.840 563.760
Total Cost 259.103 300.780 360.899 484.367 677.793
Source: Finance division, government of Pakistan, September 200824
According to the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan has suffered directly or indirectly a
loss of Rs 2,080 billion in the war against terror from 2004-05 to 2008-09. In the
beginning of 2004, it was around Rs 259,103 billion during financial year 2004-05.
However, it has increased rapidly since then and reached to Rs 678 Billion which has
affected the country’s socio-economic development25
. This includes both direct and
indirect costs.
If this trend continues, the direct and indirect costs will increase manifold since
frequent terrorist acts are now occurring in all major cities of the country including
Peshawar, Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad. Therefore, the expected direct cost of
war on terror will likely continue to increase, beyond Rs114.03 Billion (table 2) in the
upcoming years. Similarly, the indirect cost will also increase from Rs 564 billion in
the coming years26
. However, if the loss of infrastructure, especially girls’ schools,
missed opportunities due to displacements, and kidnapping and looting are also
factored in, then the cost of terrorism will likely be even more devastating for the
future of Pakistan.
In short, terrorism has adversely affected development and imposed heavy economic
sanction on the economy. It is important to note that the general loss of confidence in
the economy and the consequent inability to attract foreign inflow, high military
expenditure, enhanced transaction costs27
, leads to economic distortions affecting
economic growth and causing instability. However, effective action to combat
terrorism may generate significant benefits for the economy, preventing losses from
reduced trade flows and investment that undermine economic growth in the long term.
23
T. Masood, The cost of war, http://www.thenews.com.pk/editorial_detail.asp?id=183032
24
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft for
Discussion), http://cppr.edu.pk/download/Estimating%20Conflict%20Cost%20-2009-08-20.pdf
25
M. H. Khan, Socio-economic costs of terrorism with special reference to Pakistan,
www.opfblog.com
26
Ibid
27
Literally: the costs of participating in the market. As the market becomes more risky these costs
typically rise.
9. 9
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
The behaviour of foreign investors is always difficult to predict, as it depends on
various factors such as wisdom, prior experience, perception and tolerance of
economic and political risk, and long-term objectives. In case of Pakistan, terrorism
has affected the allocation decision of firms investing money in real foreign assets. As
a result, Pakistan’s FDI, which witnessed a steep rise over the past several years was
adversely affected by the terrorist acts in the country especially in FATA and other
areas of NWFP.
A major concern for Pakistan is the perception in financial markets that Pakistan is
failing to deal effectively with terrorism. In such a situation, markets will face higher
risk premiums and the cost of protecting assets will rise, reducing investment inflows.
Pakistan's participation in the war on terror has led to an excessive increase in the
country's credit risk, due to which recently, the World Bank has lowered Pakistan
credit rating28
.
According to a Harvard study (December 2008), higher risks of terrorism are
associated with lower levels of net FDI. In an integrated world economy, where
investors are able to diversify their investments, terrorism may induce large
movements of capital across countries. So Pakistan is not an exception and the flow of
FDI is likely to reduce further29
. However, the Asian Development Bank has reported
that in nearly every instance, acts of terrorism in Pakistan were directed at
government and military targets. The report further said that commercial loss was
always the result of collateral damage30
. This is in sharp contrast to the image of
Pakistan that prevails in the global world, where it is portrayed as a poor place to
invest because of high terrorism risk to the economic infrastructure itself.
As a result of this flawed perception, FDI has fallen sharply in last few years. The
State Bank of Pakistan reported that the FDI fell to $463 million during the first
quarter against $1.116 Billion during the same period last year, a decline of 58.5 per
cent 31
. The report also importantly demonstrated that Asian countries have left
Pakistan and their investment fell to almost a zero during the first quarter of current
financial year. The entire Asian countries, which invested $472 million in the first
quarter of previous year, spent only $30 million during the same period in the current
year32
.
Contrary to this, portfolio investment surprisingly showed a stronger willingness to
remain in the country, despite its sensitivity to the unstable context. The State Bank
report said during the first quarter portfolio investment increased to $208 million
against a net outflow of $173 million during the same period last year.
28
War on terror costs Pakistan $35 billion; reports May 24 2009, www.defence.pk
29
M. H. Khan, Socio-economic costs of terrorism with special reference to Pakistan,
www.opfblog.com
30
D. Wagner, The Impact of Terrorism on Foreign Direct Investment, February 2006,
http://www.irmi.com/expert/articles/2006/wagner02.aspx
31
S. Iqbal, Foreign Direct Investment falls by 58pc in first quarter, Dawn Report, Friday, October 16,
2009
32
Ibid
10. 10
Tourism
Countries or regions that depend heavily on tourism have been found to suffer
significant economic losses from the persistence of terrorism since individuals who
plan their holidays are less likely to choose a destination with a higher threat. Host
countries providing tourism services, which can be easily substituted are, therefore,
negatively affected by terrorist attacks to a considerable level. Northern areas and
NWFP’s area have been an important tourist destination in Pakistan and many people
living there depend on tourism. But as most parts of Pakistan’s northern belt and
NWFP have fallen into terrorists’ grip tourist revenue has dried up33
.
For example, Swat was an important tourist destination in Pakistan which attracted
people from across the world not only to its natural beauty but also to see its rich
civilization and history. Swat is suitable for all sorts of tourism i.e. eco-tourism,
adventure tourism, spiritual tourism, culture/heritage tourism, sports and commercial
tourism. It has over 400 Buddhist sites. It has also a number of snow- capped peaks,
waterfalls, glaciers, springs, streams, vast grassy tracts, thick forests, natural parks,
lakes and dark forests. It is an ideal place for both summer and winter tourism34
.
There are more than 855 hotels, including 405 restaurants, in the valley and around
40,000 people are associated with these hotels35
. But these hotels have remained
closed during the past three years due to militancy and the subsequent military
operations by the Pakistan Army. According to the government’s estimates the hotel
industry in Swat valley has suffered a loss of Rs. 60 Billion from 2007 to 200936
. The
workers associated with the hotel industry have lost their jobs; moreover, the transport
industry has also faced a severe blow and both the national and international transport
services have either closed or decreased their services between Peshawar, Islamabad
and Lahore. As measure of this desperation is that the hotel association has offered
10-day free stay packages in hotels in the Swat valley starting with the New Year
2010.
According to the World Economic Forum, Pakistan ranked 113 out of 130 countries
in 2009 for tourism. The source also said that many motels in the country’s restive
northwest were closed as tourists were banned from those areas and the staff had
migrated to other cities for work37
.
Social Cost of Terrorism
The impact of terrorism on a state’s economy may be enormous, leading to
unemployment, homelessness, poverty and other economic and social ills. According
to the Ministry of Finance, Pakistan’s participation in the anti-terrorism campaign has
led to massive unemployment in the affected regions which has ultimately increased
rural poverty too. Rural poverty has reached to 37.5 per cent from 23.9 per cent in
33
N. Hashmey, Should We Talk of Tourism under Terrorism?,
http://wondersofpakistan.wordpress.com
34
Tahir Ali, Reviving tourism in Swat, Dawn NEWS report, 11 January, 2010
35
Swat Hotel Industry Suffers Losses, http://www.thearynews.com/english/articledetail.asp?id=373 ,
January 24 , 2009
36
Swat’s Agricultural Economy is Destroyed, Weekly Pager, CRSS, June 14, 2009
37
Terrorism a threat to Pakistan’s tourism sector, http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/south-
asia/terrorism-a-threat-to-pakistans-tourism-sector_100271808.html
11. 11
2007-0838
. In addition, internally displaced persons required humanitarian assistance,
especially shelter, food, water and sanitation and the delivery of basic social services
including health and education. Frequent incident of terrorism and displacement of the
local population have severely affected the socio-economic fabric of the country,
particularly in NWFP and FATA. Due to this situation of increased unrest and
uncertainty, the World Bank has blocked lending for two key loans of at least $834
million which are likely to further increase serious socio-economic problems for the
country39
.
According to a Swat Youth Front survey of the income of households before the
present crisis 28 per cent of the responded had a monthly income of more than Rs.
40,000, while only 8 per cent had a monthly income of below RS. 5,000. After the
crisis only 4 per cent had a monthly income of Rs. 30,000 while 35 per cent have no
monthly income, these latter 35 per cent households are mostly labourers,
businessmen, and farmers40
. The major causes of lack of economic opportunities are
persistent curfews and destruction of agricultural land and fruit orchards due to
security operation in the region.
Education
Terrorism also has considerable implications for the future of education in Pakistan.
The NWFP Department of Education reports that education for students in NWFP has
been affected because of damaged or destroyed schools in the province. Those
affected includes 65 per cent of schools in Swat and 35 per cent in Buner, Upper and
Lower Dir, Shangla, and Malakand Districts. Swat is the most affected where female
education has been prohibited by militants41
. Moreover, it is not just girls’ schools
that have been targeted in Swat. More than 42 per cent of boy’s schools were
destroyed in Swat. According to some estimates nearly 150,000 students have been
deprived of education while 8,000 female teachers are without a job due to the
insurgency42
. In addition, more than 190 government schools have been burnt with
approximately 45,504 students enrolled in these schools in the war affected area of
Swat43
.
According to the former senior Vice-President of Lahore Chamber of Commerce and
Industry (LCCI), Sohail Lashari, the Swat war had displaced two million residents,
increased unemployment, discontinued education of youth, badly damaged
infrastructure, finished tourism - the main source of income generation of the area -
sparked spill-over violence in other parts of the country, and stopped the supply of
essential raw materials from Swat like marble, gems and jewelry and furniture
industries. Lashari said that frequent bombings, the deteriorating law and order
situation, and displacement of the local population, had taken a toll on the socio-
economic fabric of the country, especially the embattled Northern areas.44
38
Estimating Conflict Cost: The Case of North West Frontier Province and Pakistan (Draft for
Discussion), http://cppr.edu.pk/download/Estimating%20Conflict%20Cost%20-2009-08-20.pdf
39
Ibid
40
Rapid needs assessment report of Swat district, NWFP, Pakistan, HOPE’87-Pakistan, August 2009
41
Pakistan Situation Report #17, OCHA, 11 September, 2009
42
M. H. Khan, Socio-economic costs of terrorism with special reference to Pakistan,
www.opfblog.com
43
Fact Sheet on Swat education and other vital data, AIRRA, January 2009
44
War on terror costs Pakistan $35 billion; reports May 24 2009, www.defence.pk
12. 12
Human Cost
The human cost of terrorism in the war against terror is very high. In year 2003 total
fatalities in terrorism-related violence amounted to just 189. By 2004, this number had
risen to 863, to slide marginally to 648 in 2005, but rise dramatically thereafter. The
current year 2009, at least 11,585 persons, including 2,307 civilians and 1,011
security force (SF) personnel and 8,267 terrorist/insurgents were killed in different
attacks. Therefore, human miseries are on the rise which can be verified from the
given table 3.
Table 3: Annual Fatalities in Terrorist Violence in Pakistan, 2003-2009
Years Civilians SF Personnel Terrorists
/Insurgents
Total
2003 140 24 25 189
2004 435 184 244 863
2005 430 81 137 648
2006 608 325 538 1471
2007 1523 597 1479 3599
2008 2155 654 3906 6715
2009 2307 1011 8267 11585
2010* 119 14 126 259
Total 7747 2890 14712 25329
Source: Institute for Conflict Management (SATP)
* Data till January 11, 2010
The NWFP and FATA are witnessing large-scale violence and insurrections
throughout the years 2009 and 2010. In NWFP in 2009 there were 1,137 terrorist
attacks including 52 suicide attacks 45
. At least 1,438 persons, including 1,005
civilians and 435 Security Force (SF) personnel, were killed and 3,616 persons were
injured, including 2,777 civilian, 828 security forces. Peshawar, Swat, Dir, Charsada,
Bannu, and Kohat were the most affected districts. Its clear picture is shown in the
following table 4.
Table 4: Terrorists attacks in NWFP (2009)
Districts No. of Attacks Killed Injured
Peshawar 170 445 1520
Swat 248 223 295
D.I. Khan 90 161 441
Kohat 140 119 291
Lakki Marwat 38 8 35
Mardan 35 12 33
Dir 47 110 125
Charsada 38 70 134
Tank 32 36 93
Bannu 110 81 219
Malakand 29 17 39
Chitral 2 1 1
Hangu 67 55 143
45
Pakistan Security Report 2009, Pak Institute for Peace Studies, January 2009
13. 13
Mansehra 15 12 26
Nowshra 32 20 120
Buner 28 14 25
Swabi 4 2 2
Shangla 3 47 62
Battgram 4 2 7
Karak 4 3 2
Kohistan 1 1 3
Total 1137 1439 3616
Source: Pakistan Security Report 2009, Pak Institute for Peace Studies
In FATA, 559 terrorist attacks including 7 suicide attacks were reported in 200946
. At
least 644 people, including 390 civilians and 244 security personnel, were killed and
1,046 persons were injured, including 560 civilian, 486 security forces. See table 5.
Table 5: Terrorists attacks in FATA (2009)
Agency No. of Attacks Killed Injured
South Waziristan 89 75 152
North Waziristan 66 139 187
Kurram 36 28 39
Orakzia 28 28 7
Khyber 109 183 420
Bajawar 123 66 107
Mohmand 108 125 134
Total 559 644 1046
Source: Pakistan Security Report 2009, Pak Institute for Peace Studies
A shocking aspect of violence witnessed across the country is the suicide attacks.
There were 78 suicide attacks in 2009 as against 59 in year 200847
. It means that
every month Pakistan is witnessing at least 6 to 7 suicide attacks that cost hundreds of
human lives and infrastructure damages. The important point to note here is that in
year 2009 the number increased to 11,585 but militants were also able to spread
greater terror, attacking military convoys, destroying public properties especially the
girls’ schools, and kidnapping and lootings. Adding these acts of terrorism to the
casualties of militancy, the magnitude of the problem posed by the terrorists can be
gauged easily. Although the casualties of military operation are not considered very
reliable, the ratio of casualties of military operation and militant/suicidal attacks is
estimated to be 2:148
.
Conclusion
The ongoing insurgency has done much damage to the country and conditions have
worsened in all aspects. The costs of terrorism include loss of livelihoods, destruction
of infrastructure, capital flight, declining of growth rates, low revenues and hence the
deterioration of overall economy. This has a significant impact on FDI which fell by
46
Pakistan Security Report 2009, Pak Institute for Peace Studies, January 2009
47
Fidayeen (Suicide Squad) Attacks in Pakistan, Institute for Conflict Management (SATP)
http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/Fidayeenattack.htm
48
M. Nafees, Military Against Militancy, www.airra.org
14. 14
over 58 per cent during the first quarter of the current fiscal year due to the violence
and poor law and order situation, which has shattered the image of the country in
foreign markets. Tourism, one of the most important sources of revenue in Northern
areas is also negatively affected by the current war on terror. Consequently, the
overall real GDP growth fell to 2.00 per cent in the financial year 2008-09.
In addition, the ongoing anti-terrorism campaign has cost thousands of human lives
including both civilian and security forces. Spreading terror, attacking military
convoys, destroying public properties especially schools, and kidnapping and lootings
have all become routine. This shows that the magnitude of the problem posed by
terrorists has increased manifold and subsequently so have the cost incurred. The
question now arises as to how normalcy can be brought back to instable region of the
country.
With this background, in the first stage the government should bring stability with the
support of local people. In the second stage, the government should immediately start
infrastructure development and later on industrialisation in the troubled regions by
utilising their natural resources. As a result, people would not only get employments
but would participate directly in the development of the country. Plus, their economic
depravity would be removed in this way. Therefore, the international community
should help Pakistan not only in the form of financial assistance but also in building
and investing in economic zones in these areas that have been rehabilitated in the first
instance.
Since the troubled region of NWFP, particularly Malakand Division, has geo-strategic
importance, it can be used as a trade route for China and Central Asia. This provides
the perfect opportunity for livelihood developments locally. Moreover, the people of
Malakand have proven their patriotism but there remains the need for political
awareness so that exploitative actors do not use them for their goals of spreading
terror and destabilising the country. With awareness raising the government would be
able to remove any uncertainty among the people of this region.
Terrorism is the main problem in Pakistan. So there should be a consensus at national
level among all the political, religious, bureaucratic and army leadership. But it
should be clearly on a one-point agenda i.e. against extremism and fundamentalism.
Moreover, it is necessary to take regional countries in confidence. For this, there
should be political stability in the country, which can only happen if there is
reconciliation among the political and military leadership. A second essential step that
needs to be taken is to solve all the disputes with regional countries. Essentially, both
regional and national stability are necessary if terrorism is to be tackled and if the
economic cost of terrorism is to be curtailed.