This document examines the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria from 1986-2011. It finds that macroeconomic variables like interest rates, inflation rates, market capitalization rates, exchange rates, and GDP, as well as FPI, are all highly volatile and respond asymmetrically to new information. A stable macroeconomic environment is necessary for steady FPI inflows, while steady FPI inflows also contribute to some level of macroeconomic stability. The study recommends monitoring insider activities in the capital market and balancing economic growth policies with price stability policies.
A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Capital Flight on Real Exchange Rate in N...iosrjce
This study examines the dynamic effect of capital flight on the real exchange rate of the naira.
Specifically this study seeks to investigate if a long-run relationship exists between real exchange rate and
capital flight in Nigeria. This will be done using quarterly time series data covering the period 1981 to 2009. In
this process the short-run dynamics of the interactions between the two variables will be analyzed.
1. The document examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade in Nigeria from 1980-2014. It uses data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and Federal Bureau of Statistics to analyze the relationship between exchange rate, import, export, GDP, and price level.
2. Statistical analysis including OLS regression, cointegration, error correction model, and Granger causality tests were employed. The results show exchange rate fluctuations have a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, explaining 56% of the variation in trade.
3. The error correction model also indicates about 55% of disequilibria from the previous year's foreign trade were corrected in the current year, suggesting exchange rate volatility creates instability in Nigeria
7.[68 76]investment, inflation and economic growth-empirical evidence from ni...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that empirically examines the impact of investment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2006. The key findings are:
1) Higher inflation is negatively associated with economic growth, while higher investment is positively associated with economic growth.
2) A 1% increase in inflation is associated with a 0.09% decrease in economic growth, while a 1% increase in investment is associated with a 0.3% increase in economic growth.
3) Both supply-side and demand management policies should be adopted to reduce inflation in the short and long-run in order to promote economic growth.
Foreign capital flows depends on the prevailing monetary forces as supported by capital flows
theory and the mechanism linking these two variables is that contraction of net domestic assets through an
open market sale of bonds will place upward pressure on domestic interest rates. Higher interest rates attract
foreign funds, generating a capital inflow which relieves the pressure on domestic interest rates. Has this
actually happened? It is against this backdrop that the present study investigated the impact of monetary policy
on international capital inflows in Nigeria for a period of 22 years (1994-2015) using time series data. The
autoregressive distributed lag technique revealed that the short-run and long-run significant determinants of
foreign capital inflows are largely from broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest
rates spread except inflation rate that is insignificant in the long-run. This outcome upholds theoretical
prediction. Long-run equilibrium relationship was found between the dependent variable and the regressors.
Further examination of the short run dynamics of the model showed that the speed of adjustment coefficients
ECM (-1) to restore equilibrium have a negative sign and statistically significant at 1% level, ensuring that
long-run equilibrium can be attained and about 89% of the short-run deviation from the equilibrium (long-run)
position is corrected annually to maintain the equilibrium. Since the empirical evidence revealed that monetary
aggregates such as broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rates spread
influence foreign capital inflows, it is therefore recommended that government should continue to pursue
expansionary monetary policy and foreign exchange policies that would ensure competitiveness of the
economy in order to attract the much needed foreign capital inflows that would engender economic growth.
Foreign Investment and Its Effect on the Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Triang...iosrjce
Evidence abound about the registered increase in foreign investment inflows in recent years. While
proponents emphasize that these inflows could engender economic growth, critics express concern that there
could be destabilizing effect on the economy if not well managed. This study therefore, attempts to examine the
effect of foreign investments (disaggregated into foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment)
inflows on economic growth in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the better contributor, using time series data
from 1987-2012. The OLS and the Granger causality procedures were employed in analyzing the data. The
result displays that both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment have positive and significant
effect on economic growth though the partial correlation coefficients show that foreign portfolio investment is
the better contributor. Based on the result, government should pursue policies that encourage both foreign
direct investment and especially foreign portfolio investment.
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Capital Flight on Real Exchange Rate in N...iosrjce
This study examines the dynamic effect of capital flight on the real exchange rate of the naira.
Specifically this study seeks to investigate if a long-run relationship exists between real exchange rate and
capital flight in Nigeria. This will be done using quarterly time series data covering the period 1981 to 2009. In
this process the short-run dynamics of the interactions between the two variables will be analyzed.
1. The document examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on foreign trade in Nigeria from 1980-2014. It uses data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and Federal Bureau of Statistics to analyze the relationship between exchange rate, import, export, GDP, and price level.
2. Statistical analysis including OLS regression, cointegration, error correction model, and Granger causality tests were employed. The results show exchange rate fluctuations have a significant negative impact on foreign trade in Nigeria, explaining 56% of the variation in trade.
3. The error correction model also indicates about 55% of disequilibria from the previous year's foreign trade were corrected in the current year, suggesting exchange rate volatility creates instability in Nigeria
7.[68 76]investment, inflation and economic growth-empirical evidence from ni...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that empirically examines the impact of investment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2006. The key findings are:
1) Higher inflation is negatively associated with economic growth, while higher investment is positively associated with economic growth.
2) A 1% increase in inflation is associated with a 0.09% decrease in economic growth, while a 1% increase in investment is associated with a 0.3% increase in economic growth.
3) Both supply-side and demand management policies should be adopted to reduce inflation in the short and long-run in order to promote economic growth.
Foreign capital flows depends on the prevailing monetary forces as supported by capital flows
theory and the mechanism linking these two variables is that contraction of net domestic assets through an
open market sale of bonds will place upward pressure on domestic interest rates. Higher interest rates attract
foreign funds, generating a capital inflow which relieves the pressure on domestic interest rates. Has this
actually happened? It is against this backdrop that the present study investigated the impact of monetary policy
on international capital inflows in Nigeria for a period of 22 years (1994-2015) using time series data. The
autoregressive distributed lag technique revealed that the short-run and long-run significant determinants of
foreign capital inflows are largely from broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest
rates spread except inflation rate that is insignificant in the long-run. This outcome upholds theoretical
prediction. Long-run equilibrium relationship was found between the dependent variable and the regressors.
Further examination of the short run dynamics of the model showed that the speed of adjustment coefficients
ECM (-1) to restore equilibrium have a negative sign and statistically significant at 1% level, ensuring that
long-run equilibrium can be attained and about 89% of the short-run deviation from the equilibrium (long-run)
position is corrected annually to maintain the equilibrium. Since the empirical evidence revealed that monetary
aggregates such as broad money supply, nominal exchange rate, inflation rate and interest rates spread
influence foreign capital inflows, it is therefore recommended that government should continue to pursue
expansionary monetary policy and foreign exchange policies that would ensure competitiveness of the
economy in order to attract the much needed foreign capital inflows that would engender economic growth.
Foreign Investment and Its Effect on the Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Triang...iosrjce
Evidence abound about the registered increase in foreign investment inflows in recent years. While
proponents emphasize that these inflows could engender economic growth, critics express concern that there
could be destabilizing effect on the economy if not well managed. This study therefore, attempts to examine the
effect of foreign investments (disaggregated into foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment)
inflows on economic growth in Nigeria with a view to ascertaining the better contributor, using time series data
from 1987-2012. The OLS and the Granger causality procedures were employed in analyzing the data. The
result displays that both foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment have positive and significant
effect on economic growth though the partial correlation coefficients show that foreign portfolio investment is
the better contributor. Based on the result, government should pursue policies that encourage both foreign
direct investment and especially foreign portfolio investment.
The study gauged the influence of exchange rate fluctuations on the Performance of the Nigerian Economy over the time from of 1986 to 2016, utilizing secondary data tracked from the statistical report of the Apex Nigerian bank, and utilizing techniques such as Unit root test, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Impulse-Response Output and Variance-Decomposition Test to evaluate variables such as Interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate against a sole indicator of Economic Performance I.e. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate (GDPGR), it was discovered that despite the short run influx of the spill over volatility of Interest rate and inflation rate, there exist no long run volatility influence of interest rate on Economic Performance in Nigeria. It was therefore recommended that the apex financial institution and relevant policy makers should ensure an interest rate system and status that could stimulate growth or production and the nation should endeavour to utilize her interest rate in controlling its output level as it motivates Economic Performance (GDPGR).
Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Foreign Portfolio in NigeriaMoses Oduh
1) This study examines the long-run determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria from 1981-2010 using time series analysis.
2) It finds that foreign portfolio investment has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization and trade openness in Nigeria.
3) The study aims to help policymakers pursue policies that can attract more foreign portfolio investment in the long run, such as efforts to improve and sanitize the Nigerian capital market.
The aim of this study is to examine the impact of international capital flows on the economic growth in Jordan during the period from 2005 to 2017, The study also examines trends and composition of capital inflows. The study used descriptive analytical research method which was appropriate for the purpose of research. By using time series data, the study found that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), grants (Gr) and Worker remittances (WR) are positively affecting the economic growth direct contribution. Based on the research results, the study came with a several recommendations, the most important recommendation is; the government of Jordan should create and relax the rules and regulations to attract more investors, and also the government should work hand in hand with the developed countries to create economic and employment opportunities, improve the country’s competitiveness, and expand growth within the private sector so that everyone in Jordan has the opportunity to contribute to a brighter future.
Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeriaijtsrd
"The chequered history of the Nigeria monetary policy has created a visible asymmetry in the two known monetary regimes before and after SAP in the country. Years after the Structural Adjustment Programme SAP , the Nigeria economy grew to become the strongest economy in Africa and suddenly plunging into recession, a situation that have adversely affected the growth and development of the economy by ways of rising unemployment rate, soaring poverty and swollen external debt, thus suggesting that the failure of the monetary policy in curbing price instability has caused growth instability as Nigeria's record of growth and development has become very poor. This study therefore examines the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data covering the period of 1980 2017 that were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The model's estimates were estimated via multiple econometric model of the ordinary least square to ascertain the effect of money supply, credit in the economy, interest rate on credit, infrastructure, inflationary rate, external debts, price index on growth in Nigeria. The results show that money supply, interest rate on credit, infrastructure and external debt were statistically significant in explaining its impacts on economic growth while other variables used in the study were all found to be statistically insignificant in explaining the growth rate of the Nigerian economy. The study recommends among others that for effective operation of the monetary policy measures in the Nigerian economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be granted full autonomy on its monetary policy functions. Partial autonomy should be replaced with full autonomy for the central banks in the developing economies at large which is invariably subjected to government interference and its politics. Onwuteaka, Ifeoma Cecilia | Okoye, P. V. C | Molokwu, Ifeoma Mirian ""Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd22984.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/economics/22984/effect-of-monetary-policy-on-economic-growth-in-nigeria/onwuteaka-ifeoma-cecilia"
Analysis of the relationship between fiscal deficits and external sector perf...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined the relationship between fiscal deficits and external sector performance in Nigeria from 1961 to 2011. The study used bi-variate granger causality and error correction modeling techniques to analyze data on fiscal deficits, external reserves, exchange rates, and other variables collected from Central Bank of Nigeria publications. The results showed a long-run relationship between the variables. There was also evidence of bi-directional causality between budget deficits and external performance in the long-run, and unidirectional causation from external performance to deficits in the short-run. Fiscal deficits did not significantly impact external performance in the short-run. Cross-correlation showed deficits could lead to long-run deterioration in reserves and exchange
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
Impact of Exchange rate volatility on FDI in PakistanIOSR Journals
The main objective of our study is to determine the relationship of FDI with exchange rate volatility exchange rate and inflation. There are large numbers of FDI determinants but exchange rate is one of reflective determinant. Exchange rate extremely volatile due to its frailty to adopt the changes in international and domestic investment. In our study, we use time series data for FDI, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate, government consumption and domestic credit from 1980 to 2011 for Pakistan. Different time series econometrics techniques (volatility analysis, normality test, PP, unit root test) have been used for analysis. Results demonstrate that exchange rate volatility and inflation deter FDI while exchange rate has positive relationship with it.
This document discusses the susceptibility of African stock market returns to international economic policy uncertainty, specifically from the US. It uses transfer entropy methods to quantify information flow from US economic policy uncertainty to 9 African stock markets from 2010-2020. The main findings are:
1) US economic policy uncertainty transmits significant information to the stock markets of Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa, but insignificant information to Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia.
2) The asymmetry in information transfer from the US suggests African markets could provide diversification benefits when global economic policy uncertainty rises.
3) The findings have implications for adopting open innovation in African stock markets to better deal with global
The document discusses a study investigating the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Pakistan from 1990-2006. The study uses a production function model including FDI, trade, domestic capital, labor, and human capital as independent variables affecting economic growth. The expected results are a statistically significant positive relationship between real per capita GDP and FDI in Pakistan. Policy recommendations could then be made regarding FDI in Pakistan based on the results.
Impact of political stability on the macroeconomic variables and FDI of Pakis...journal ijrtem
Abstract: In this paper we have discussed the vital role of political stability on the link between macroeconomic variables and FDI .For this purpose we have used a data of year 1991 to 2011.In this empirical analysis we have used ADF test for the checking the stationary of the data and other software’s are SPSS and eviews.This result of this study have made sure that import ,BOP, export and GDP growth rate have significant impact on the FDI inflows in the Pakistan and inflation has a negative impact on the FDI based on this research has proved that political stability is crucial for the expansion of foreign direct investment.
Keywords: political stability, ADF, BOP, crucial etc.
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Economic DevelopmentBatola David
Interest rate is a closely watched variable in the economy, their movements are reported almost daily by news media because they directly affect our everyday lives and have important consequence for the health of the economy and it is important macroeconomic variables for economic growth, they affect personal decisions such as whether to consume or to save, whether to buy a house and whether to purchase bonds or put funds into a saving account. This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rate on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1975 to 2015 using quarterly time series data. Specifically, it examines the extent to which real exchange rate has on the growth rates of the country reflecting real GDP, inflation rate and interest. The study, therefore, employs the co-integration analysis within the framework of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to empirically investigate the effects of real exchange rate on real GDP growth in the country.
Abstract
The exchange rates are at the heart of international economic relations and are an integral part of the everyday landscape of economic agents. The Tunisia like the other country is faced with the problem of determination of the rate of exchange that will allow him to achieve the major balances internal and external. The objective of this research is to explain the rate of exchange to the assistance of a number of explanatory variables to enable managers of the economic policy to appreciate in the time their contribution to economic activity. It is clear from the results of this research that have a positive influence on the equilibrium exchange rate while the external capital and the budgetary deficit have a significant negative impact on the equilibrium exchange rate.
Key words:
Exchange rate, budget deficit, exchange term, monetary mass
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
Long Run Impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Industrial Outputiosrjce
While many scholars have carried out a lot of research on the impact of exchange rate volatility and
price shocks on economic growth, this study departs from previous studies and seeks to provide suggestions for
Nigerian policy makers on the attainment of an ideal exchange rate necessary to boost industrialization and
industrial output. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset
and goods markets. This linkage is made possible through trade and foreign exchange. The price of foreign
currencies in terms of a local currency (i.e. foreign exchange) is therefore important to the understanding of the
growth trajectory of all countries of the world. The consequences of substantial misalignments of exchange rates
can lead to output contraction and extensive economic hardship. These therefore, bring up the issue of an ideal
exchange rate necessary for the achievement of a set of diverse objectives - economic growth, containment of
inflation and maintenance of external competiveness. This study employed the use of the ordinary least square
technique to examine the impact of exchange rate stability on industry output in Nigeria using annual time
series data from 1980 to 2013. The result of the study showed that domestic capital, foreign direct investment,
population growth rate, and real exchange rate were significant determinants of industrial output. The changes
in external balance and inflation were of little or no consequences to industrial output. Based on the findings,
the researcher recommended that conscious efforts should be made by government to fine-tune the various
macroeconomic variables in order to provide an enabling environment that stimulates industrial output and
eventual economic growth.
This document examines the impact of monetary policy on the Nigerian economy from 1981 to 2008. The results of the analysis show that monetary policy, as represented by money supply, has a positive impact on GDP growth and the balance of payments, but a negative impact on inflation. The recommendations are that monetary policy should facilitate investment through appropriate interest rates, exchange rates, and liquidity management, and that the money market should provide more financial instruments to satisfy the growing sophistication of participants.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
POLITICAL INSTABITLIY, DEFENSE SPENDING AND ITS IMPACTS (PAKISTAN)Arshad Ahmed Saeed
Political instability and high defense spending in Pakistan have negatively impacted economic growth. A large portion of GDP is spent on defense, reducing resources available for development and investment. While defense spending can increase employment and infrastructure, it diverts funds away from economic growth. Political instability, which Pakistan has experienced since independence due to conflicts among parties and groups, affects macroeconomic policies and contributes to low investment, high inflation, and reduced growth. Both political instability and high defense spending misallocate resources and lower productivity and efficiency.
This document outlines the criteria and requirements for a media production blog assignment. Students must post evidence of their research, planning, and design work for a local newspaper to their blog. There are three grading criteria related to blog presentation: ease of browsing, organization of posted content, and communication skills. Students must complete research on conventions of local newspapers, target audiences, ownership of local papers, and potential stories. They must design sketches of newspaper pages and plans for additional promotional materials. All evidence must be posted to the blog by deadlines.
This kit has been developed as a training tool for owners and managers,
supervisors, and workers in the tourism and hospitality industry. The purpose of
this kit is to improve safety in your workplace, thereby reducing injuries and
decreasing your WorkSafeBC premiums. The kit contains guides for
supervisors and handouts for workers on five topics:
• Using kitchen equipment safely
• Preventing slips, trips, and falls
• Handling hot objects and liquids
• Lifting safely
• Using knives safely
Management of government funded construction projects in ghanaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study on the causes of delays in construction projects funded by the Ghanaian government. The researchers conducted a literature review to identify potential causes of delays. They developed a questionnaire to gather stakeholders' perspectives on how common various delay factors are in Ghana's public sector construction industry. 36 stakeholders responded, including clients and professionals. The results suggest the major causes of delays are long bureaucratic processes for approving payment certificates and changes, cash flow problems, lackadaisical decision making, inefficient plant/equipment, and limited liquidity. The researchers conclude the client is often responsible for delays.
Modelling the Long Run Determinants of Foreign Portfolio in NigeriaMoses Oduh
1) This study examines the long-run determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria from 1981-2010 using time series analysis.
2) It finds that foreign portfolio investment has a positive long-run relationship with market capitalization and trade openness in Nigeria.
3) The study aims to help policymakers pursue policies that can attract more foreign portfolio investment in the long run, such as efforts to improve and sanitize the Nigerian capital market.
The aim of this study is to examine the impact of international capital flows on the economic growth in Jordan during the period from 2005 to 2017, The study also examines trends and composition of capital inflows. The study used descriptive analytical research method which was appropriate for the purpose of research. By using time series data, the study found that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), foreign portfolio investment (FPI), grants (Gr) and Worker remittances (WR) are positively affecting the economic growth direct contribution. Based on the research results, the study came with a several recommendations, the most important recommendation is; the government of Jordan should create and relax the rules and regulations to attract more investors, and also the government should work hand in hand with the developed countries to create economic and employment opportunities, improve the country’s competitiveness, and expand growth within the private sector so that everyone in Jordan has the opportunity to contribute to a brighter future.
Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeriaijtsrd
"The chequered history of the Nigeria monetary policy has created a visible asymmetry in the two known monetary regimes before and after SAP in the country. Years after the Structural Adjustment Programme SAP , the Nigeria economy grew to become the strongest economy in Africa and suddenly plunging into recession, a situation that have adversely affected the growth and development of the economy by ways of rising unemployment rate, soaring poverty and swollen external debt, thus suggesting that the failure of the monetary policy in curbing price instability has caused growth instability as Nigeria's record of growth and development has become very poor. This study therefore examines the effect of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria using secondary data covering the period of 1980 2017 that were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. The model's estimates were estimated via multiple econometric model of the ordinary least square to ascertain the effect of money supply, credit in the economy, interest rate on credit, infrastructure, inflationary rate, external debts, price index on growth in Nigeria. The results show that money supply, interest rate on credit, infrastructure and external debt were statistically significant in explaining its impacts on economic growth while other variables used in the study were all found to be statistically insignificant in explaining the growth rate of the Nigerian economy. The study recommends among others that for effective operation of the monetary policy measures in the Nigerian economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria should be granted full autonomy on its monetary policy functions. Partial autonomy should be replaced with full autonomy for the central banks in the developing economies at large which is invariably subjected to government interference and its politics. Onwuteaka, Ifeoma Cecilia | Okoye, P. V. C | Molokwu, Ifeoma Mirian ""Effect of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Nigeria"" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-3 | Issue-3 , April 2019, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd22984.pdf
Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/humanities-and-the-arts/economics/22984/effect-of-monetary-policy-on-economic-growth-in-nigeria/onwuteaka-ifeoma-cecilia"
Analysis of the relationship between fiscal deficits and external sector perf...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined the relationship between fiscal deficits and external sector performance in Nigeria from 1961 to 2011. The study used bi-variate granger causality and error correction modeling techniques to analyze data on fiscal deficits, external reserves, exchange rates, and other variables collected from Central Bank of Nigeria publications. The results showed a long-run relationship between the variables. There was also evidence of bi-directional causality between budget deficits and external performance in the long-run, and unidirectional causation from external performance to deficits in the short-run. Fiscal deficits did not significantly impact external performance in the short-run. Cross-correlation showed deficits could lead to long-run deterioration in reserves and exchange
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
Impact of Exchange rate volatility on FDI in PakistanIOSR Journals
The main objective of our study is to determine the relationship of FDI with exchange rate volatility exchange rate and inflation. There are large numbers of FDI determinants but exchange rate is one of reflective determinant. Exchange rate extremely volatile due to its frailty to adopt the changes in international and domestic investment. In our study, we use time series data for FDI, exchange rate volatility, exchange rate, government consumption and domestic credit from 1980 to 2011 for Pakistan. Different time series econometrics techniques (volatility analysis, normality test, PP, unit root test) have been used for analysis. Results demonstrate that exchange rate volatility and inflation deter FDI while exchange rate has positive relationship with it.
This document discusses the susceptibility of African stock market returns to international economic policy uncertainty, specifically from the US. It uses transfer entropy methods to quantify information flow from US economic policy uncertainty to 9 African stock markets from 2010-2020. The main findings are:
1) US economic policy uncertainty transmits significant information to the stock markets of Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa, but insignificant information to Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia.
2) The asymmetry in information transfer from the US suggests African markets could provide diversification benefits when global economic policy uncertainty rises.
3) The findings have implications for adopting open innovation in African stock markets to better deal with global
The document discusses a study investigating the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Pakistan from 1990-2006. The study uses a production function model including FDI, trade, domestic capital, labor, and human capital as independent variables affecting economic growth. The expected results are a statistically significant positive relationship between real per capita GDP and FDI in Pakistan. Policy recommendations could then be made regarding FDI in Pakistan based on the results.
Impact of political stability on the macroeconomic variables and FDI of Pakis...journal ijrtem
Abstract: In this paper we have discussed the vital role of political stability on the link between macroeconomic variables and FDI .For this purpose we have used a data of year 1991 to 2011.In this empirical analysis we have used ADF test for the checking the stationary of the data and other software’s are SPSS and eviews.This result of this study have made sure that import ,BOP, export and GDP growth rate have significant impact on the FDI inflows in the Pakistan and inflation has a negative impact on the FDI based on this research has proved that political stability is crucial for the expansion of foreign direct investment.
Keywords: political stability, ADF, BOP, crucial etc.
Macroeconomic stability in the DRC: highlighting the role of exchange rate an...IJRTEMJOURNAL
This study is part of a macroeconomic approach and seeks to identify the role of the rate of
economic growth and the exchange rate in controlling the macroeconomic framework. The approaches adopted
in this paper are part of Keynesian thinking on macroeconomic stability using the macroeconomic stability
index proposed by Burnside and Dollars (2004) and A. Amine (2005). Our results argue that economic growth
is causing macroeconomic stability and that the exchange rate is negatively and significantly accounting for
macroeconomic stability in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Economic DevelopmentBatola David
Interest rate is a closely watched variable in the economy, their movements are reported almost daily by news media because they directly affect our everyday lives and have important consequence for the health of the economy and it is important macroeconomic variables for economic growth, they affect personal decisions such as whether to consume or to save, whether to buy a house and whether to purchase bonds or put funds into a saving account. This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rate on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1975 to 2015 using quarterly time series data. Specifically, it examines the extent to which real exchange rate has on the growth rates of the country reflecting real GDP, inflation rate and interest. The study, therefore, employs the co-integration analysis within the framework of Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to empirically investigate the effects of real exchange rate on real GDP growth in the country.
Abstract
The exchange rates are at the heart of international economic relations and are an integral part of the everyday landscape of economic agents. The Tunisia like the other country is faced with the problem of determination of the rate of exchange that will allow him to achieve the major balances internal and external. The objective of this research is to explain the rate of exchange to the assistance of a number of explanatory variables to enable managers of the economic policy to appreciate in the time their contribution to economic activity. It is clear from the results of this research that have a positive influence on the equilibrium exchange rate while the external capital and the budgetary deficit have a significant negative impact on the equilibrium exchange rate.
Key words:
Exchange rate, budget deficit, exchange term, monetary mass
Impact of political stability on the reserves of pakistanKamran Arshad
This document analyzes the impact of political stability on Pakistan's reserves from 1960-2010. It collects data on reserves from the World Bank and analyzes how political and historical events affected reserves. The research finds a strong correlation between political instability and lower reserves through statistical analysis of reserves data and major events in Pakistan's history. Control charts are used to identify relationships between reserves and environmental factors.
Long Run Impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Industrial Outputiosrjce
While many scholars have carried out a lot of research on the impact of exchange rate volatility and
price shocks on economic growth, this study departs from previous studies and seeks to provide suggestions for
Nigerian policy makers on the attainment of an ideal exchange rate necessary to boost industrialization and
industrial output. The economies of all the countries of the world are linked directly or indirectly through asset
and goods markets. This linkage is made possible through trade and foreign exchange. The price of foreign
currencies in terms of a local currency (i.e. foreign exchange) is therefore important to the understanding of the
growth trajectory of all countries of the world. The consequences of substantial misalignments of exchange rates
can lead to output contraction and extensive economic hardship. These therefore, bring up the issue of an ideal
exchange rate necessary for the achievement of a set of diverse objectives - economic growth, containment of
inflation and maintenance of external competiveness. This study employed the use of the ordinary least square
technique to examine the impact of exchange rate stability on industry output in Nigeria using annual time
series data from 1980 to 2013. The result of the study showed that domestic capital, foreign direct investment,
population growth rate, and real exchange rate were significant determinants of industrial output. The changes
in external balance and inflation were of little or no consequences to industrial output. Based on the findings,
the researcher recommended that conscious efforts should be made by government to fine-tune the various
macroeconomic variables in order to provide an enabling environment that stimulates industrial output and
eventual economic growth.
This document examines the impact of monetary policy on the Nigerian economy from 1981 to 2008. The results of the analysis show that monetary policy, as represented by money supply, has a positive impact on GDP growth and the balance of payments, but a negative impact on inflation. The recommendations are that monetary policy should facilitate investment through appropriate interest rates, exchange rates, and liquidity management, and that the money market should provide more financial instruments to satisfy the growing sophistication of participants.
1) The document analyzes macroeconomic variables like interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, GDP, and inflation in China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia from 2000 to 2017 to determine leading indicators of economic stability.
2) The ARDL panel analysis shows that leading indicators of controlling economic stability differ across countries. For India it is interest rates, exchange rates, money supply, inflation expectations, and GDP. For Vietnam it is interest rates, money supply, and GDP. For Indonesia it is interest rates and money supply, and for China it is money supply.
3) The analysis finds that money supply has a significant effect on inflation in the panel as a whole, but results vary by country
POLITICAL INSTABITLIY, DEFENSE SPENDING AND ITS IMPACTS (PAKISTAN)Arshad Ahmed Saeed
Political instability and high defense spending in Pakistan have negatively impacted economic growth. A large portion of GDP is spent on defense, reducing resources available for development and investment. While defense spending can increase employment and infrastructure, it diverts funds away from economic growth. Political instability, which Pakistan has experienced since independence due to conflicts among parties and groups, affects macroeconomic policies and contributes to low investment, high inflation, and reduced growth. Both political instability and high defense spending misallocate resources and lower productivity and efficiency.
This document outlines the criteria and requirements for a media production blog assignment. Students must post evidence of their research, planning, and design work for a local newspaper to their blog. There are three grading criteria related to blog presentation: ease of browsing, organization of posted content, and communication skills. Students must complete research on conventions of local newspapers, target audiences, ownership of local papers, and potential stories. They must design sketches of newspaper pages and plans for additional promotional materials. All evidence must be posted to the blog by deadlines.
This kit has been developed as a training tool for owners and managers,
supervisors, and workers in the tourism and hospitality industry. The purpose of
this kit is to improve safety in your workplace, thereby reducing injuries and
decreasing your WorkSafeBC premiums. The kit contains guides for
supervisors and handouts for workers on five topics:
• Using kitchen equipment safely
• Preventing slips, trips, and falls
• Handling hot objects and liquids
• Lifting safely
• Using knives safely
Management of government funded construction projects in ghanaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research study on the causes of delays in construction projects funded by the Ghanaian government. The researchers conducted a literature review to identify potential causes of delays. They developed a questionnaire to gather stakeholders' perspectives on how common various delay factors are in Ghana's public sector construction industry. 36 stakeholders responded, including clients and professionals. The results suggest the major causes of delays are long bureaucratic processes for approving payment certificates and changes, cash flow problems, lackadaisical decision making, inefficient plant/equipment, and limited liquidity. The researchers conclude the client is often responsible for delays.
This document outlines the job hazard analysis for upgrading a restaurant in Abuja, Nigeria. It identifies 10 key tasks for the project including demolition, block work, mechanical and electrical works, rendering, ceiling works, tiling, painting, fittings, furnishings, and demobilization. For each task, potential hazards are identified such as working at heights, incompetent personnel, defective equipment, dust inhalation, and poor work practices. Controls to mitigate the hazards are also specified, such as using competent operators, appropriate PPE, safety signage, isolation procedures, toolbox talks, and first aid. The overall goal is to complete each task safely and prevent injuries to personnel or damage to assets.
Imara Shabazz is seeking a position as a line cook where she can utilize her skills and experience. She has over 3 years of experience as a line cook at Bon Appétit in San Francisco where she prepares foods and salads for over 600 employees daily, cooks meat and vegetarian options, operates a grill, provides excellent customer service, and ensures food safety standards are followed. She also has experience as an apparel processor where she safely processed merchandise. Imara has a high school diploma and attended Chabot Community College. She works well under pressure as part of a team and is meticulous, responsible, and punctual.
Slides from recent Ohio Restaurant Association's (ORA) sponsored safety training seminars designed specifically for the foodservice industry to help you save time and money while safeguarding your business. The free education sessions are part of the ORA Restaurant Education Series and satisfy the BWC's two-hour training requirement (if attend in person). Sessions, entitled “Foodservice Safety Training: Preventing Costly Workplace Injures,” will be held in two convenient locations this fall: one in Cincinnati and the other in Columbus. -
Stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in nigeria an ...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. The study uses an EGARCH model to estimate volatility and a LA-VAR Granger causality test to analyze the nexus between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables. The results found evidence of a bi-causal relationship between stock market volatility and real GDP volatility, and no causal relationship between stock market volatility and interest rate or inflation rate volatility.
CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT AND INFLATION IN NIGERIAAJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT :This study examined the impact of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. The
ultimate objective of the study is centered on an empirical investigation of inflation and its impact on the growth
of the Nigerian capital market, and also the trend of inflation and capital market development in Nigeria. In
order to achieve these objectives, the study used tables and graphs to examine the trend of inflation and capital
market development in Nigeria. Augmented Dickey Fuller unit root test was used to check the behavior of data,
and the ARDL bound test was used to check if variables are cointegrated. Post estimation test which includes
the serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and the histogram normality test was also conducted. Data were
collected from secondary sources, such as central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin and the world development
indicator. The unit root test revealed that the financial sector, financial intermediaries and interest rate were
stationary at levels but exchange rate, inflation, government spending and trade openness became stationary
after the first difference. Empirical findings confirmed that there is a statistically significant long- and short-run
negative effect of inflation on capital market development. On the contrary, economic growth has a statistically
significant long- and short-run positive impact on capital market performance. In addition, results confirmed
that there is positive support of the previous financial sector policies on capital market performance in the
current period.
Analysis of foreign investment and identified macroeconomic measures in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the relationship between foreign investment and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria from 1980-2010. It finds that GDP, exchange rates, and money supply have a direct positive impact on foreign investment, while interest rates and inflation have a negative impact. Interest rates and inflation are also found to "Granger cause" foreign investment, indicating they are influential factors. The study recommends that Nigeria implement excellent macroeconomic policies and infrastructure development to enhance investment and reduce poverty.
Is domestic private investment sensitive to macroeconomic indicators? Further...Premier Publishers
This paper examined the sensitivity of domestic private investment to macroeconomic indicators in Nigeria from 1986 to 2015 using domestic private investment as the dependent variable and gross domestic product, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate as independent variables. The Ordinary Least Square technique, ARDL Modeling technique and the Engle Granger causality technique for analysis revealed that domestic private investment is most sensitive to money supply, gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth and exchange rate in Nigeria while it is less sensitive to inflation and interest rate in the short run. Gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth and exchange rate affect domestic private investment positively while money supply has a negative effect in the short run. Domestic private investment is most sensitive to money supply and gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth in the long run and both exert a negative and positive effect on domestic private investment respectively in the long run while inflation and interest rates also exert significant effect on the same. Meanwhile, the causality test revealed that domestic private investment drives money supply in Nigeria. Hence, it is recommended that monetary policies which relate mostly to the control of the cost, supply/availability and direction of money should be reviewed periodically and ensure that such policies are implemented with little or no lag. Furthermore, the devaluation of the exchange rate which will spur private domestic investment should be cautiously implemented.
A survey of foreign exchange rate determinants in nigeriaAlexander Decker
The document presents a study that investigates factors that determine foreign exchange rates in Nigeria over the period 1960-2011. Regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and several independent macroeconomic variables including GDP, balance of payments, external reserves, inflation, deposit rates, and lending rates. The results of the regression showed no statistically significant relationship between the foreign exchange rate and any of the independent variables over the time period analyzed.
4.[30 39]long run relationship between private investment and monetary policy...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research journal article that investigates the long-run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in Nigeria from 1980-2009. It uses vector auto-regression techniques to test the relationship between private investment, GDP, money supply, and other factors. The results showed that money supply has a negative short-run impact on private investment, while GDP and other factors have a positive impact. In the long-run, all the variables became statistically significant. This implies that monetary policy in Nigeria has positively affected the growth of private investment and the economy over the long term. The document reviews several other studies on the relationship between financial development, private investment, and economic growth.
4.[30 39]long run relationship between private investment and monetary policy...Alexander Decker
This study investigated the long-run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in Nigeria from 1981 to 2009. The results of the vector autoregression model showed that in the short-run, money supply had a negative but insignificant impact on private investment, while GDP and other factors had a positive impact. However, in the long-run all variables became statistically significant, with money supply positively affecting private investment growth. This implies that monetary policy in Nigeria has positively influenced the growth of private investment over the long-run. The study concluded that private investment and monetary policy have been negatively related in the short-run in terms of money supply, but positively related based on GDP and other factors in the long-run.
11.long run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in ni...Alexander Decker
This study investigated the long-run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in Nigeria from 1981 to 2009. The results of the vector autoregression model showed that in the short-run, money supply had a negative but insignificant impact on private investment, while GDP and other factors had a positive impact. However, in the long-run all variables became statistically significant, with money supply positively affecting private investment growth. This implies that monetary policy in Nigeria has positively influenced the growth of private investment over the long-run. The study concluded that private investment and monetary policy have been negatively related in the short-run in terms of money supply, but positively related based on GDP and other factors in the long-run.
11.long run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in ni...Alexander Decker
This study investigated the long-run relationship between private investment and monetary policy in Nigeria from 1981 to 2009. The results of the vector autoregression model showed that in the short-run, money supply had a negative but insignificant impact on private investment, while GDP and other factors had a positive impact. However, in the long-run all variables became statistically significant, with money supply positively affecting private investment growth. This implies that monetary policy in Nigeria has positively influenced the growth of private investment over the long-run. The study concluded that private investment and monetary policy have been negatively related in the short-run in terms of money supply, but positively related based on GDP and other factors in the long-run.
Currency fluctuations and inflation are the natural norm for most major economies. Numerous factors influence economic growth, including a country’s exchange rate system performance, the outlook for inflation, and interest rate differentials. These are the most significant factors that hinder the economic growth of every nation. As a result, this analysis investigates the impact of exchange rate and inflation on Nigeria’s growth performance from 1986 to 2021. Impulse response and variance decomposition were estimated. The real gross domestic product (RGDP) was used as a proxy for growth performance, while the inflation rate (IFNR), real exchange rate (REXR), and interest rate (INTR) were also used as proxies. The results of impulse response and variance decomposition estimates in the short-run (third quarter) and long-run (tenth quarter) show that real exchange rate D(REXR), INTR, and IFNR all have a positive impact on RGDP variation, with values of 13.38%, 31.88%, and 22.40%, respectively, in the third quarter. In the long run (the 10th quarter), REXR contributed approximately 28.76% of the variation in RGDP. The interest rate contributed 24.14%, while the IFNR has contributed about 28.27% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Therefore, summing the contributions of REXR, INTR, and INFR to RGDP, these variables contributed about 81.17% of the variation in RGDP in the long run. Hence, the research concluded that REXR, INTR, and IFNR have a positive effect on growth performance as proxied by RGDP in Nigeria within the period of the research. The research recommended that the government should provide a policy that will reduce the excess growth of aggregate demand (AD) in the economy, which will reduce inflationary pressure, in order to achieve the sustainable development goals (SDGs) of 2030 in Nigeria, which include restoring economic growth and macroeconomic stability through macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate, inflation, and other significant variables.
Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Real Sector Output in Nigeria A Disaggregated A...ijtsrd
This study examined the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on real sector output in Nigeria. It is the goal of every economy to have a stable rate of exchange with its trading partners. In Nigeria, this goal was not attained in spite of the fact that the country embarked on devaluation to promote export and stabilize the rate of exchange. Despite various efforts by the government to maintain a stable exchange rate, the Naira has depreciated throughout the 1980s to date. It is worrisome to note that Nigerian economy is under industrialized and its capacity utilization is also low. Specifically, this study examined the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on agricultural, industrial, building and construction, and trade sector outputs. It employed an ex post facto research design and the main statistical was the Auto Regressive Distributive Lag ARDL estimation technique using secondary data sourced from the Central bank of Nigeria statistical bulletins from 1986 2021. The result of the analyses revealed that exchange rate fluctuation had significant negative effect on agricultural sector output. Also, exchange rate was found to have a significant and negative effect on industrial, building and construction, and also trade sector output in Nigeria even though these effects were negative. The study concludes that although foreign exchange had significant effect on the real sector, such effect were negative thus displaying an inverse relationship. Sequel to these findings, there is a need for government at all levels federal, state, and local to actually invest in agriculture in an effort to match domestic demand and export to compete with crude oil for foreign exchange earnings. The Central Bank of Nigeria CBN is to provide foreign exchange relief measures for the acquisition of raw commodities that the nation naturally lacks while maintaining minimal exchange rate fluctuation to encourage local production by industries. Chrisphyna Ugochi Ahaneku | Ikenna Cyprain Egungwu | Amalachukwu Chijindu Ananwude "Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Real Sector Output in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Analysis (1986 - 2021)" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-7 | Issue-1 , February 2023, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd53838.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/53838/exchange-rate-fluctuation-and-real-sector-output-in-nigeria-a-disaggregated-analysis-1986---2021/chrisphyna-ugochi-ahaneku
MEASURING FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRESSURE: A TEXT MINNING APPROACHAJHSSR Journal
ABSTRACT : This study investigates the effectiveness of sentiment analysis, using text-mining approach within
the context of big-data analytics, in measuring foreign exchange pressure in Nigeria. It begins with the construction
of two sentiment-based index of foreign exchange pressure; the first, labelled EMP, constructed by text-mining
public sentiments about foreign exchange management in Nigeria, within the platform of twitter, while the second,
labelled EMP_Trend, constructed from Google Trend as an index of sampled search of related words around foreign
management in Nigeria. Thereafter, the study tested the effectiveness of both indices in signaling movement in
exchange rate (IEW) in Nigeria relative to existing traditional measures of foreign exchange pressure in Nigeria.
The Predictive Regression Model (PRM) and Clark and West (2007) frameworks were employed. Findings from
the study suggest that foreign exchange market pressure index using Sentiment Analysis may hold sufficient
information in predicting and signaling movement in exchange rate (IEW) in Nigeria. Specifically, EMP_Trend
and EMP were found to improve the forecast of IEW, as their estimated Clark and West coefficients were both
positive and statistically significant at 5 per cent. The study recommends that monetary authorities leverage
sentiment analysis to monitor future direction in exchange rate, with a view to implementing policies that would
moderate the prevailing instability in the foreign exchange market in the Nigeria.
KEYWORDS: Foreign Exchange Pressure, Sentiment Analysis, Text-mining, leading indicator, predictive
regression model.
The study tried to examine the effect of environmental forces on foreign exchange market in Nigeria. The PEST- Political variables such as change in government (CIG) and democratic rule (DMR); Economical variables such as interest rate spread (IRS) and inflation in consumer prices (ICP); Social variable like population growth (PGR); and Technological variables such as fuel exports in merchandise (FEM) and technology export (TEX) were used to evaluate the impact these environmental factors have on foreign exchange market (official exchange rate). This study employed a time series data with the time frame 1973-2015. A multiple regression model was developed and analyzed using the ordinary least square method (OLS) with the help of E-views, a statistical package. The result showed that in isolation, IRS, FEM and DMR significantly influenced dealing rates in the Nigerian foreign exchange market while ICP, CIG, PGR, and TEX did not show any significant influence on foreign exchange market in Nigeria. However, the overall result showed a significant positive relationship between the environmental forces and the foreign exchange market in Nigeria with a p -value of 0.000000. We therefore concluded that environmental factors have significant influence on the Nigerian Foreign Exchange market. Hence, we recommended that relevant stake holders should pay proper attention to those environmental factors with significant impact on our Foreign Exchange Market in Nigeria.
Extant literature revealed that international trade plays a key role to address the economic phenomena and can help to earn foreign exchange. Despite the accruable benefits from international trade and the countrys huge oil export that account for about 90 of its foreign exchange earnings, Nigerias trade balance and exchange rate remain unfavourable. The persistent rise in Nigerias exchange rate and unfavourable trade balance in recent time warrants an empirical probe. This study therefore examines the effect of exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income, consumption expenditure, money supply and interest rate on trade balance using a secondary time series data covering a period of thirty years from 1991 2020. The study employed a regression technique of the Ordinary Least Square OLS . All data used were secondary data obtained from the statistical bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria CBN and National Bureau of Statistics NBS annual publications. After determining stationarity of the study variables using the ADF Statistic, it was discovered that the variables were all integrated at level, first and second difference, and found out to be stationary at their first difference. The study also using Johansen Cointegration Test, found that there is a long run relationship between the variables. Hence, the implication of this result is that there is a long run relationship between trade balance and other variables used in the model. From the result of the OLS, it is observed that exchange rate, domestic income, foreign income and money supply have a positive and significant impact on trade balance in Nigeria. The study recommends that the government should fixed or peg on the exchange rate through the central bank. This will enable the government to buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged. The government should strive to reduce inflation to make exports more competitive. The government should also enhance supply side policies to increase long term competitiveness. Edokobi, Tonna David | Okpala, Ngozi Eugenia | Okoye, Nonso John "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Nexus" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-5 , August 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd45079.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/public-sector-management/45079/exchange-rate-and-trade-balance-nexus/edokobi-tonna-david
7.[68 76]investment, inflation and economic growth-empirical evidence from ni...Alexander Decker
1) The document examines the empirical relationship between investment, inflation, and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2006.
2) The results of the regression analysis show that inflation has a negative and significant relationship with economic growth, while investment has a positive and significant relationship.
3) Specifically, a 1% increase in inflation is associated with a 0.09% decrease in economic growth, while a 1% increase in investment is associated with a 0.3% increase in economic growth.
Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price Changes in Emerging Stock Market Evid...ijtsrd
This study investigated macro economic variables and stock price changes in emerging stock market evidence from Nigeria. The main objective of the study was to ascertain the major macroeconomic variables that are determinants of stock prices in Nigerian Stock market. Secondary data was collected from CBN Statistical bulletins and used. The co integration technique was used for the data analysis. The results of the study or findings revealed that Exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices Real GDP has a positive effect on stock prices money supply has negative effect on stock prices on the long run while interest rate, inflation rate, have no significant effect on stock prices. Based on the findings, it is thus recommended as follows more attention should be paid to credit control and long term supply of money by monetary authorities to stabilize stock prices instead of adopting price stabilization measures. Concerned authorities should tame inflation and interest rates, check stock prices manipulations, ensure the production and promotion of export products agents of stock market can also predict stock prices by observing trend of output growth consistently of a particular industry and Nigeria government and entrepreneurs should engage in the production of tradable goods rather than only crude oil to create more export for the country and hence boost stock market trading with more investors. Matthew Osedebamhen Moni | Steve Nkem Ibenta | Victor Ike Okonkwo "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price Changes in Emerging Stock Market Evidence from Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-6 | Issue-1 , December 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd47503.pdf Paper URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/accounting-and-finance/47503/macroeconomic-variables-and-stock-price-changes-in-emerging-stock-market-evidence-from-nigeria/matthew-osedebamhen-moni
This document examines the relationship between foreign capital inflows (foreign aid, foreign direct investment, and remittances) and economic growth in Kenya from 1970 to 2014. It finds that:
1) All three sources of foreign capital increased substantially over the period, particularly remittances which grew from $7 million in 1970 to $1.4 billion in 2014.
2) Remittance inflows to Kenya are primarily from the United Kingdom and United States, which together accounted for 64% of remittances in 2014.
3) Previous studies on the relationship between these capital inflows and economic growth have shown mixed results, with some finding a positive relationship and others a negative or no relationship.
Effect of foreign direct investment and stock market development on economic ...Alexander Decker
This document analyzes the effect of foreign direct investment and stock market development on economic
growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2009. It finds that both foreign direct investment and lagged stock market
development have a small but statistically significant positive effect on economic growth. The trends show
that foreign direct investment and stock market development experience cyclical movements. Lagged
exchange rate appreciation also enhances economic growth in Nigeria. The study aims to examine trends in
foreign investment and stock markets, and establish their relationship to economic growth, in order to guide
policymakers.
Similar to Macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment volatility evidence from nigeria (20)
Abnormalities of hormones and inflammatory cytokines in women affected with p...Alexander Decker
Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have elevated levels of hormones like luteinizing hormone and testosterone, as well as higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance compared to healthy women. They also have increased levels of inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin. This study found these abnormalities in the hormones and inflammatory cytokines of women with PCOS ages 23-40, indicating that hormone imbalances associated with insulin resistance and elevated inflammatory markers may worsen infertility in women with PCOS.
A usability evaluation framework for b2 c e commerce websitesAlexander Decker
This document presents a framework for evaluating the usability of B2C e-commerce websites. It involves user testing methods like usability testing and interviews to identify usability problems in areas like navigation, design, purchasing processes, and customer service. The framework specifies goals for the evaluation, determines which website aspects to evaluate, and identifies target users. It then describes collecting data through user testing and analyzing the results to identify usability problems and suggest improvements.
A universal model for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document discusses a study that aimed to synthesize motivation theories into a universal model for managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was guided by Maslow and McGregor's theories. A sample of 303 marketing executives was used. The results showed that managers will be most effective at motivating marketing executives if they consider individual needs and create challenging but attainable goals. The emerged model suggests managers should provide job satisfaction by tailoring assignments to abilities and monitoring performance with feedback. This addresses confusion faced by Nigerian bank managers in determining effective motivation strategies.
A unique common fixed point theorems in generalized dAlexander Decker
This document presents definitions and properties related to generalized D*-metric spaces and establishes some common fixed point theorems for contractive type mappings in these spaces. It begins by introducing D*-metric spaces and generalized D*-metric spaces, defines concepts like convergence and Cauchy sequences. It presents lemmas showing the uniqueness of limits in these spaces and the equivalence of different definitions of convergence. The goal of the paper is then stated as obtaining a unique common fixed point theorem for generalized D*-metric spaces.
A trends of salmonella and antibiotic resistanceAlexander Decker
This document provides a review of trends in Salmonella and antibiotic resistance. It begins with an introduction to Salmonella as a facultative anaerobe that causes nontyphoidal salmonellosis. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella is then discussed. The document proceeds to cover the historical perspective and classification of Salmonella, definitions of antimicrobials and antibiotic resistance, and mechanisms of antibiotic resistance in Salmonella including modification or destruction of antimicrobial agents, efflux pumps, modification of antibiotic targets, and decreased membrane permeability. Specific resistance mechanisms are discussed for several classes of antimicrobials.
A transformational generative approach towards understanding al-istifhamAlexander Decker
This document discusses a transformational-generative approach to understanding Al-Istifham, which refers to interrogative sentences in Arabic. It begins with an introduction to the origin and development of Arabic grammar. The paper then explains the theoretical framework of transformational-generative grammar that is used. Basic linguistic concepts and terms related to Arabic grammar are defined. The document analyzes how interrogative sentences in Arabic can be derived and transformed via tools from transformational-generative grammar, categorizing Al-Istifham into linguistic and literary questions.
A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in namibiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the determinants of savings in Namibia from 1991 to 2012. It reviews previous literature on savings determinants in developing countries. The study uses time series analysis including unit root tests, cointegration, and error correction models to analyze the relationship between savings and variables like income, inflation, population growth, deposit rates, and financial deepening in Namibia. The results found inflation and income have a positive impact on savings, while population growth negatively impacts savings. Deposit rates and financial deepening were found to have no significant impact. The study reinforces previous work and emphasizes the importance of improving income levels to achieve higher savings rates in Namibia.
A therapy for physical and mental fitness of school childrenAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study on the importance of exercise in maintaining physical and mental fitness for school children. It discusses how physical and mental fitness are developed through participation in regular physical exercises and cannot be achieved solely through classroom learning. The document outlines different types and components of fitness and argues that developing fitness should be a key objective of education systems. It recommends that schools ensure pupils engage in graded physical activities and exercises to support their overall development.
A theory of efficiency for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study examining efficiency in managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was examined through the lenses of Kaizen theory (continuous improvement) and efficiency theory. A survey of 303 marketing executives from Nigerian banks found that management plays a key role in identifying and implementing efficiency improvements. The document recommends adopting a "3H grand strategy" to improve the heads, hearts, and hands of management and marketing executives by enhancing their knowledge, attitudes, and tools.
This document discusses evaluating the link budget for effective 900MHz GSM communication. It describes the basic parameters needed for a high-level link budget calculation, including transmitter power, antenna gains, path loss, and propagation models. Common propagation models for 900MHz that are described include Okumura model for urban areas and Hata model for urban, suburban, and open areas. Rain attenuation is also incorporated using the updated ITU model to improve communication during rainfall.
A synthetic review of contraceptive supplies in punjabAlexander Decker
This document discusses contraceptive use in Punjab, Pakistan. It begins by providing background on the benefits of family planning and contraceptive use for maternal and child health. It then analyzes contraceptive commodity data from Punjab, finding that use is still low despite efforts to improve access. The document concludes by emphasizing the need for strategies to bridge gaps and meet the unmet need for effective and affordable contraceptive methods and supplies in Punjab in order to improve health outcomes.
A synthesis of taylor’s and fayol’s management approaches for managing market...Alexander Decker
1) The document discusses synthesizing Taylor's scientific management approach and Fayol's process management approach to identify an effective way to manage marketing executives in Nigerian banks.
2) It reviews Taylor's emphasis on efficiency and breaking tasks into small parts, and Fayol's focus on developing general management principles.
3) The study administered a survey to 303 marketing executives in Nigerian banks to test if combining elements of Taylor and Fayol's approaches would help manage their performance through clear roles, accountability, and motivation. Statistical analysis supported combining the two approaches.
A survey paper on sequence pattern mining with incrementalAlexander Decker
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Macroeconomic uncertainty and foreign portfolio investment volatility evidence from nigeria
1. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Foreign Portfolio Investment
Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria
Tamarauntari Moses Karimo1* Diseye Bernard Tobi2
1
Niger Delta University, Wilberforce Island, P. O. Box 1464, Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, Nigeria.
2
University of Port Harcourt, Choba-Port Harcourt, Rivers State, Nigeria.
*
Email of the corresponding author: trimoses@gmail.com
Abstract
This paper examined the effect of information asymmetries on macroeconomic volatility and FPI volatility in
Nigeria using the AR(k)-EGARCH(p,q) model, and the nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI
volatility in Nigeria using the LA-VAR Granger Causality test. Quarterly time series data were drawn from the
Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2011 spanning through 1986Q1 to 2011Q4. The study found that all
the included variables were highly volatile and responded asymmetrically to information shocks. The results also
predict that a stable macroeconomic environment is necessary for steady FPI inflow and steady FPI inflow is
also needed for some levels of macroeconomic stability. It was therefore recommended that insiders’ activities in
the Nigerian capital market be properly monitored and that policy makers should be sensitive to possible policy
tradeoffs when the need arises between higher economic growth and rising price levels, and sustained economic
growth and stable prices.
Keywords: Macroeconomic uncertainty, FPI Volatility, AR-EGARCH Model, and LA-VAR Model.
JEL Classification: C26, C58, E31, G14
1. Introduction
The role of macroeconomic policies in determining the flow of Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in developing
market economies has been a subject of serious debate among economists. FPI is being viewed as a source of
foreign private capital to any economy. Foreign investors are always interested in the security of- and returns totheir investments. A highly volatile macroeconomic environment means that investors may not be able to predict
correctly what the future holds for their investments and so become skeptical about increasing their investment
outlays. They can more appropriately manage their investments (increase returns and/or lower risk) if they can
use macroeconomic news releases as reliable indicators for where the economy is heading. On the other hand,
policymakers are interested in increasing the quantity and quality of FPI flows to the economy due to the
acclaimed benefits it carries. They can therefore better control the direction and magnitude of FPI inflow by
adjusting macroeconomic variables if the relationship between FPI and key macroeconomic variables has a
strong predictive power to stimulate the growth of the economy.
The relationship between FPI and key macroeconomic variables has been subjected to series of economic
research, analysis and discussions. Historically, foreign private investment plays a prominent role in shaping a
country’s socio-economic development. Since no nation is an island of its own in terms of needed resources to
stimulate investment, generate employment, foster economic growth, etc recourse must be made from time to
time to woo foreign investment to bridge the dual gap of savings-investment requirement and foreign earnings
and foreign exchange requirement.
According to Mailafia (2005), capital flows have contributed in filling the resource gap in countries where
domestic savings are inadequate to finance investment. However, while emerging economies experience
spectacular inflows, Nigeria has been historically afflicted with the worrisome problem of capital flight.
Although the country potent a large market for both consumer and producer goods given the huge size of its
population, many years of military rule, the recent Niger Delta crises, which culminated in the Federal
Government Amnesty Programme, the current wave of terrorist activities, fraudulent behavior of citizens, the
level of corruption in the country and the underdeveloped nature of the capital market and the existence of a dual
economy have been faulted amongst other things for the low level of FPI inflow.
If all available information in a current period is taken into account, there would be a close relationship between
macroeconomic variables and expected FPI flow. To this extent, FPI flow might react quickly to macroeconomic
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information, which would be an indicator of real economic activities. Thus FPI volatility depends on volatility of
expected future macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation, exchange rate, market capitalization
rate, GDP, etc. This means that if domestic interest rate rises over and above the world interest rate foreign
capital flows in because expected returns to investment is higher compared to the rest of the world and the
reverse would be the case for a decrease. However, a high and rising inflation rates means that the gains from
investments are quickly eroded and investors react accordingly to protect their funds thus there is (massive)
outflow of foreign capital (capital flight).
This study therefore examines the asymmetric impact of information on volatility of various macroeconomic
variables which include interest rate, inflation rate, market capitalization rate, nominal exchange rate, GDP and
FPI in Nigeria, and the nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI volatility in Nigeria for the period
1986Q1-2011Q4.
2. Literature Review
There has been a large body of empirical work done on macroeconomic volatility in relation to many variables in
Nigeria and in other countries of the world. Mougani (2012) was concerned with the impact of international
financial integration on economic activity and macroeconomic volatility in African countries. He showed that the
impact of external capital flows on growth depend mainly on the initial conditions and policies implemented to
stabilize foreign investment, increase domestic investment, productivity and trade, develop the domestic
financial system, expand trade openness and other actions aimed at stimulating growth and reducing poverty.
Mougani also showed that financial instability was particularly severe from the nineties and more pronounced in
the case of portfolio investments than in foreign direct investments. It was further established that trends in
official capital flows were less unstable than in private capital flows, and the volatility of capital flows observed
in financially “open” and “closed” countries was accompanied by moderate macroeconomic instability.
Anayochukwu (2012) investigated the impact of stock market returns on foreign portfolio investment in Nigerian
using a multiple linear regression and Granger causality tests. Anayochukwu showed that foreign portfolio
investment has a positive and significant impact on stock market returns while inflation rate was statistically not
significant. He also found a unidirectional causality running from stock market returns to foreign portfolio
investment in the economy. Enyim, Sylvester and Nweze (2013) examined the nexus between real exchange rate
instability and foreign private investment in Nigeria and showed that a long-run relationship exists between CFPI
and the explanatory variables; EXR, INF, INT and GDP.
Gabriel and Ugochukwu (2012) examined Stock Market volatility in Nigeria using the month end stock prices of
four major companies from January 2005 to December, 2009. Using the ARCH model, the study showed the
presence of volatility in all four stock prices. The study also showed that out of the four, two companies’ stock
prices were predictable by past stock prices. Oseni and Nwosa (2011) employed AR (k)-EGARCH (p, q) model
to examine the volatility in stock market and macroeconomic variables, and used LA-VAR Granger Causality
test to analyze the nexus between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables volatility in Nigeria for
the periods 1986 to 2010 using time-series data. They showed that there exists a bi-directional causality between
stock market volatility and real GDP volatility; and there is no causal relationship between stock market
volatility and the volatility in interest rate and inflation rate. The study recommended that in order to reduce
stock market volatility, government should take pro-active role in building a stable market through tapping the
growing interest of the general public in the market by increasing supply of shares. Xiufang Wang (2010)
investigated the time-series relationship between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variable volatility
for China using exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) and lagaugmented VAR (LA-VAR) models and found evidence that there is a bilateral relationship between inflation
and stock prices, while a unidirectional relationship exists between the interest rate and stock prices, with the
direction from stock prices to the interest rate. However, a significant relationship between stock prices and real
GDP was not found. Also, Chinzara (2011) studied macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility for
South Africa. He indicates that stock market volatility is significantly affected by macroeconomic uncertainty,
that financial crises raise stock market volatility, and that volatilities in exchange rates and short-term interest
rates are the most influential variables in affecting stock market volatility whereas volatilities in oil prices, gold
prices and inflation play minor roles in affecting stock market volatility.
Lee (1992) was concerned with the causal relationships and dynamic interactions among asset returns, real
economic activity, and inflation in the postwar US. Using a VAR approach he showed that stock returns helped
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in explaining real economic activities, but elucidated little about the variability in inflation. Dropsy and
Nazarian-Ibrahimi (1994) examined the impact of macroeconomic policies on stock returns from 1970 to 1990
using monthly data for 11 industrialized countries and concluded that macroeconomic policies that are
predictable were unable to predict stock returns accurately. Park and Ratti (2000) examined the dynamic
interdependencies among real economic activities, inflation, stock returns, and monetary policy, using a VAR
model. While results from the monthly U.S. data for the period 1955 – 1998 showed that shocks due to
contractionary monetary policy significantly explained movements in inflation and expected real stock returns,
there was no feedback effect.
From the foregoing it is obvious that there is a dearth in the empirical literature of studies on the nexus between
macroeconomic volatility and foreign portfolio investment volatility in Nigeria. In this study therefore, we
focused on the causal relationships between macroeconomic variables uncertainty and FPI volatility in Nigeria.
We also examine the asymmetric relationships between information set and FPI volatility and macroeconomic
variables volatility for the periods spanning through 1986Q1 to 2011Q4.
3. Methodology
3.1 Data and Sources
Due to dearth in high frequency data for all of the variables of interest we used quarterly time series data drawn
from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2011.
3.2 Model Specification
To achieve the objectives of study we employed a step by step estimation approach. First we estimated the AREGARCH models to examine the variables for volatility and second, we examined the nexus between
macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI volatility in Nigeria. To examine the volatility of macroeconomic variables
including FPI we adopt the autoregressive exponential generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (AREGARCH) model. The EGARCH model was developed by Nelson (1991) to capture information asymmetries
and also ensure that the conditional variance is always positive. Assuming yt follows an autoregressive process
of order k the mean equation is specified as:
The complete model will include the following variance equation:
The left-hand of equation 3.1b is the logarithm of the conditional variance. The logarithmic form of the
EGARCH (p, q) model certifies the non-negativity of the conditional variance without the need to constrain the
model’s coefficients. The asymmetric effect of positive and negative shocks (information) is represented by the
inclusion of the term εt-i/σt-i. If γk > 0 (< 0) volatility tends to rise (fall) when the lagged standardized shock, εt.
i/σt-I is positive (negative). The persistence of volatility to the conditional variance is given by
We may consider a special case EGARCH(1,1) model as follows:
For a positive shock, εt-1/σt-1 >0 eqn. (3.2) becomes:
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4. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
and for negative shocks, εt-1/σt-1<0 it becomes:
Therefore the presence of a leverage effect can be tested by the hypothesis γ=0. There is an asymmetric effect if
γ≠0. Furthermore, the parameter α governs the persistence of volatility shocks for the EGARCH (1, 1) model.
The benefits in using the EGARCH model are: (i) Since the logarithm of volatility is used as the regressand,
imposing nonnegative constraint on the parameters of variance dynamics is no longer necessary; (ii) the
EGARCH model takes into consideration the asymmetric effect of volatility; and (iii) only the coefficients of the
GARCH term determines the persistence of volatility shocks. Thus, this paper will provide empirical evidence
regarding the asymmetric of volatility in foreign portfolio investment and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria.
To examine the link between macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI volatility we estimate a lag-augmented vector
autoregressive (LA-VAR) model. This model was developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and adopted by
Oseni and Nwosa (2011) to examine the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic variables
volatility in Nigeria alongside the Exponential GARCH model. The basic strength of the model is its ability to
test for causality among variables without paying attention to the stochastic process generating the time series.
That is it could be applied even when the order of integration or cointegration is not known.
The model is specified as follows:
where: xt is a vector of n-dimensional macroeconomic volatility variables and foreign portfolio investment; is
an n-dimensional vector of random error terms with zero mean and variance covariance matrix ∑ ; t is time
trend; k is the lag length which would be determined empirically; and α0, α1, θi are vectors of coefficients to be
estimated.
The null hypothesis that the
in eqn.(3.6) below.
variable does not granger-cause the ith variable is tested using the formulation
where θij(h) is the (i, j)th element of the matrix θij(h=1,2,3,...,k). we estimated a VAR model formulated at levels
using the classical OLS regression to test the above hypothesis. The Toda and Yamomoto (1995) formulation
established that the Wald statistic asymptotically follows a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal
to the number of excluded lagged variables without paying attention to the time series properties of stationarity
and or cointegrating processes.
4. Results and Discussion
We used the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC) to select the best model that fits our data. The
models with the lower SBIC were selected. The AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1) model was selected for logFPI and
logGDP. Whereas AR(2)-EGARCH(1,1) was selected for Market capitalization rate the model selected for
interest rate, inflation rate and nominal exchange rate were AR(4)-EGARCH(3,1), AR(3)-EGARCH(3,6) and
AR(3)-EGARCH(2,2) respectively. The results of the selected models are presented in table 1. The results
revealed that all the included variables were highly volatile with the estimated EGARCH terms being 0.801,
0.563, 0.872, 0.6277(= - 0.7618 + 0.1279 + 0.2308 + 0.8011 + 0.3468 - 0.1171), 0.3844 (= 0.1583 + 0.2261) and
0.7541 for Log FPI, INT, MCR, INFL, NER and Log GDP respectively. The variables also responded
asymmetrically to shocks. While the short-run responses of volatility to negative shocks were 1.472 (=1.098 – (0.374), 0.196 (= - 1.726 - 0.729 + (0.753 – (- 0.578)) + (1.748 - 0.428)), -1.396 (= -0.487 – 0.909), -2.1685
(=1.0540 - (- 0.0098) – (0.3764 + 0.5987) – (1.5866 + 0.6706)), -1.7925(= -1.6431 - 0.5323 + 0.8269 - 0.4440)
and 1.3633 (=0.8605 – (-0.5028)) for Log FPI, INT, MCR, INFL, NER and Log GDP respectively, the short
term responses to positive shocks were 0.724(=1.098 - 0.374), 1.354(= -1.726 + 0.729 + 0.753 - 0.578 + 1.748 +
0.428), 0.422(= - 0.487 + 0.909), 0.3505(= 1.0540 - 0.0098 - 0.3764 + 0.5987 - 1.5866 + 0.6706), 0.1601(1.6431 + 0.5323 + 0.8269 + 0.4440) and 0.3577(=0.8605 - 0.5028) for Log FPI, INT, MCR, INFL, NER and
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Log GDP respectively. These differences were also statistically significant at the conventional 5% level as
indicated by the probability values except for NER where the second leverage term only became significant at
7% level and INFL where the first leverage term was not statistically significant at all. These results imply that
both the Nigerian macroeconomic environment and foreign portfolio investment inflows are highly volatile and
the volatilities would persist into the distant future. Furthermore, the null hypotheses of no autocorrelation for
the standardized residuals were accepted for all the variables at 1% levels. Also, the Lagrange Multiplier (LM)
test statistic for ARCH in residuals showed that the null hypothesis of no further ARCH effect in the residuals is
accepted for all variables at the 1% level. Therefore the results of the selected AR-EGARCH models explained
our data very well. The volatilities from the above models were calculated and the descriptive statistics are
presented in table 2. It could be observed from table 4.2 that the mean of INT volatility was fairly high compared
to other variables while the standard deviation of inflation volatility was the highest. The table also showed that
whereas the volatility of INT, NER and log GDP had negative skewness that of FPI, MCR and INFL had
positive skewness. While the volatility of logFPI showed minimal kurtosis estimated to be 3.860 the
macroeconomic variables volatility showed relatively high levels of kurtosis far exceeding 3 except for INFL
that was 3.797. In addition, the residuals normality hypotheses were all rejected at the 1% level except for logFPI
and INFL. All the Jarque-Bera statistics were significant at the 1% level with only that of INFL that was not
significant even at higher levels (10%) of significance. The rejection of the normality hypotheses were all due to
fat-tails (the large kurtosis observed). These results strongly showed that the Nigerian macroeconomic variables
are much more impulsive than FPI. For the nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI volatility the
LA-VAR Granger-causality test results are presented in table 3. The estimated results showed a bi-directional
causality running from GDP to FPI and vice-versa at the 10 percent level but at the conventional 5 percent level
there is only a unidirectional causality running from GDP to FPI. At the conventional 5% level the relationship
between INFL volatility and LogFPI volatility, and that of MCR and LogFPI showed bi-directional causality
respectively. However it was volatility in INFL and MCR that causes volatility in logFPI more. Whereas a
unidirectional causality was observed running from volatility in LogFPI to NER there was no relationship found
between volatility in INT and LogFPI. These positions are indicated by the statistically significant (not
significant) Wald statistics (see table 4.3). This implies that FPI volatility is caused by macroeconomic
uncertainty in Nigerian more that as FPI volatility causes macroeconomic uncertainty. Unstable prices and GDP
growth, and undeveloped nature of the Nigerian capital market have not meant well for steady FPI inflows.
These results therefore predict that a stable macroeconomic environment in Nigeria would be necessary for
steady FPI inflow even as a steady FPI inflow is needed for some levels of macroeconomic stability. This is a
serious issue for policy formulation.
5. Conclusion and Recommendations
This paper so has examined: (i) the asymmetries of information on macroeconomic variables volatility and FPI
volatility; and (ii) the nexus between macroeconomic uncertainty and FPI volatility within the Nigerian context.
The findings thereof revealed that macroeconomic volatility and FPI volatility are highly persistent and
responded asymmetrically to information flow. Furthermore the study showed that foreign portfolio investment
volatility is more responsive to GDP volatility, inflation rate volatility and market capitalization rate volatility
than these variables respond to FPI volatility. While there was no relationship found between interest rate
volatility and foreign portfolio investment volatility exchange rate volatility was highly responsive to FPI
volatility. We therefore come to the conclusion that for the period of study both the Nigerian economy and FPI
were highly volatile responding differently to positive and negative shocks. We also conclude that foreign
investors do not lead growth but follow it. Furthermore, a calm and developed capital market, sustained
economic growth, stable prices are necessary ingredients for steady FPI inflows. Finally, when FPI becomes less
volatile the effect will not only be on further GDP growth, it will also result in further stable prices, contribute to
capital market development through risk diversification and reduced volatility in the foreign exchange rate.
Since the Nigerian capital market volatility is highly responsive to information flows as expected is
recommended that insiders’ activities be properly monitored. Where some persons are able to trade base on
insiders’ information they will be able to beat the market therefore the market will no longer be efficient. The
consequence would be capital flight. This is because foreign investors would lose confidence in the trading
mechanism.
Also, since foreign investors do not lead growth but follow it as the study revealed, and since growth comes with
levels of sacrifices in form of higher inflation rate policy tradeoff is inevitable between higher GDP growth and
233
6. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
higher inflation rate on the one hand and sustained GDP growth and stable prices on the other depending on the
prevailing need.
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8. Developing Country Studies
ISSN 2224-607X (Paper) ISSN 2225-0565 (Online)
Vol.3, No.12, 2013
www.iiste.org
Table 2: Standardized Residual Normality Test
FPI
INT
MCR
INFL
NER
GDP
Mean
-0.071
0.233
-0.152
-0.054
-0.2145
-0.2004
Std. Dev.
1.004
1.088
1.065
1.248
1.2037
0.9824
Skewness
0.085
-0.227
6.878
0.226
-1.0429
-0.5781
Kurtosis
3.860
5.160
59.678
3.797
21.0369
15.9699
Jarque-Bera
3.265
20.304
14456.96
3.532
1387.404
720.6068
P-value
0.195
0.0000
0.0000
0.171
0.0000
0.0000
Source: Authors’ computation
Table 3: LA-VAR Granger Causality Test
Hypothesized relationship
Wald statistic
p-value
Decision
Log(GDP) volatility does not granger cause Log(FPI) Volatility
10.0926
0.0015
Reject
Log(FPI) volatility does not granger cause Log(GDP) Volatility
3.356803
0.0669
Do not reject
INFL volatility does not granger cause LOG(FPI) volatility
12.78226
0.0003
Reject
Log(FPI) volatility does not granger cause INFL Volatility
11.32521
0.0008
Reject
INT volatility does not granger cause LOG(FPI) volatility
0.00009
0.9924
Do not reject
Log(FPI) volatility does not granger cause INT Volatility
1.190068
0.1389
Do not reject
MCR volatility does not granger cause LOG(FPI) volatility
20.31184
0.0000
Reject
Log(FPI) volatility does not granger cause MCR Volatility
5.761287
0.0164
Reject
NER volatility does not granger cause LOG(FPI) volatility
0.120647
0.7283
Do not reject
Log(FPI) volatility does not granger cause NER Volatility
4.561006
0.0327
Reject
Source: Authors’ computation
236
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