Michael Bowen Oil and Gas consultancy give a review with respect to oil and gas penetrating investments.Oil and gas offerings, nevertheless, can be particularly risky.
Understand the relationship between:
(1)Cost of investment
(2)Expected return
(3)Risk assessment
Oil field bids in Mexico: Round 1.3. “Onshore Fields”. Commerciality evaluati...Juan Diego Suarez Fromm
An Economical model for oil field development was built for onshore License Contracts in Mexico. Sensibility analysis for price, royalties and costs was performed. A conceptual profitability map was obtained, leading to some important conclusions for awarded Fields in Round One Bid #3. Some would be uncommercial and others would have critical performance due to very high offers in royalty. Sensibility analysis also shows that Government Revenue model promotes investments in a License Contract in oil price range between 30 and 100 usd/bbl; aiding the high royalties cases to achieve profitability under favourable costs conditions.
""Over the past three years, we have transformed Eni into a leaner and more resilient company. We have built a high margin portfolio consisting of a large number of mature projects, which will secure our production growth over the medium and long term, and a huge amount of reserves, which will give us flexibility and value."
Michael Bowen Oil and Gas consultancy give a review with respect to oil and gas penetrating investments.Oil and gas offerings, nevertheless, can be particularly risky.
Understand the relationship between:
(1)Cost of investment
(2)Expected return
(3)Risk assessment
Oil field bids in Mexico: Round 1.3. “Onshore Fields”. Commerciality evaluati...Juan Diego Suarez Fromm
An Economical model for oil field development was built for onshore License Contracts in Mexico. Sensibility analysis for price, royalties and costs was performed. A conceptual profitability map was obtained, leading to some important conclusions for awarded Fields in Round One Bid #3. Some would be uncommercial and others would have critical performance due to very high offers in royalty. Sensibility analysis also shows that Government Revenue model promotes investments in a License Contract in oil price range between 30 and 100 usd/bbl; aiding the high royalties cases to achieve profitability under favourable costs conditions.
""Over the past three years, we have transformed Eni into a leaner and more resilient company. We have built a high margin portfolio consisting of a large number of mature projects, which will secure our production growth over the medium and long term, and a huge amount of reserves, which will give us flexibility and value."
A presentation delivered by Cabot Oil & Gas at the Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference in New Orleans in March 2016. During the presentation we learn Cabot plans to complete 40 wells in the Marcellus in 2016 and grow production slightly--up to 7% in 2016 over 2015.
Eni: second quarter and first half of 2016 resultsEni
Claudio Descalzi, Eni’s Chief Executive Officer, commented:
“Eni has achieved significant results in the first half of 2016, despite the weak but slowly improving market environment. Hydrocarbon production beat expectations, offsetting the suspension of activity in Val d’Agri and the disruptions in Nigeria. Our main developments are proceeding on time and on budget, allowing us to confirm our expected production growth of more than 5% in 2017. Our exploration, which is focused on near field activity, has allowed us to revise upwards our expectations for new discoveries in just six months. In mid and downstream, we have achieved positive results across all of our operations due to restructuring and efficiency measures which will continue as planned. Our strategy, including the optimization initiatives and a reduced cost base, has allowed us to absorb part of the impact of a low oil price scenario with a positive contribution of €1 billion to EBIT. We are maintaining our strong balance sheet, funding capex with our cash flow at a Brent price of 50$/bl. On this basis I will propose an interim dividend of €0.40 per share to the Board.”
“Eni has markedly improved its financial and operational performance, driven by the ongoing execution of Eni strategy across all business segments. We expect that in 2017 organic cash generation, coupled with proceeds from disposals, will allow us to fully fund our capex and dividend requirements at an oil price well below the current level.”
Today, Eni’s Board of Directors approved the Group results for the first quarter of 2019 (unaudited). Commenting on the results, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, remarked:
“I am very pleased of the excellent industrial and financial performance delivered by Eni in IQ 2019. Particularly, in light of a substantially unchanged market scenario, the E&P business has improved its operating profit by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2018, confirming our expectations of the business growing cash generation for the full year. The results of the G&P segment also improved; the 16% increase in operating profit to €372 million puts us on the path to achieving our €500 million profit target for the full year. The performance of the Downstream R&M and Chemicals business offset the effect of weaker margins and we expect to see a broad recovery over the next nine months, particularly in oil Refining and Marketing. Overall, first quarter operations generated a cash flow of €3.42 billion, up 8% and €1.5 billion greater than the investments for the period of around €1.9 billion, which is in line with the expectations of €8 billion for the whole year. The Group confirms that it can leverage on the quality and robustness of its asset portfolio, capable of covering costs, investments and dividends at a Brent price of US$ 55, in addition to generating a cash surplus in the event of higher prices, as in current trading conditions.”
A presentation delivered by Cabot Oil & Gas at the Scotia Howard Weil Energy Conference in New Orleans in March 2016. During the presentation we learn Cabot plans to complete 40 wells in the Marcellus in 2016 and grow production slightly--up to 7% in 2016 over 2015.
Eni: second quarter and first half of 2016 resultsEni
Claudio Descalzi, Eni’s Chief Executive Officer, commented:
“Eni has achieved significant results in the first half of 2016, despite the weak but slowly improving market environment. Hydrocarbon production beat expectations, offsetting the suspension of activity in Val d’Agri and the disruptions in Nigeria. Our main developments are proceeding on time and on budget, allowing us to confirm our expected production growth of more than 5% in 2017. Our exploration, which is focused on near field activity, has allowed us to revise upwards our expectations for new discoveries in just six months. In mid and downstream, we have achieved positive results across all of our operations due to restructuring and efficiency measures which will continue as planned. Our strategy, including the optimization initiatives and a reduced cost base, has allowed us to absorb part of the impact of a low oil price scenario with a positive contribution of €1 billion to EBIT. We are maintaining our strong balance sheet, funding capex with our cash flow at a Brent price of 50$/bl. On this basis I will propose an interim dividend of €0.40 per share to the Board.”
“Eni has markedly improved its financial and operational performance, driven by the ongoing execution of Eni strategy across all business segments. We expect that in 2017 organic cash generation, coupled with proceeds from disposals, will allow us to fully fund our capex and dividend requirements at an oil price well below the current level.”
Today, Eni’s Board of Directors approved the Group results for the first quarter of 2019 (unaudited). Commenting on the results, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, remarked:
“I am very pleased of the excellent industrial and financial performance delivered by Eni in IQ 2019. Particularly, in light of a substantially unchanged market scenario, the E&P business has improved its operating profit by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2018, confirming our expectations of the business growing cash generation for the full year. The results of the G&P segment also improved; the 16% increase in operating profit to €372 million puts us on the path to achieving our €500 million profit target for the full year. The performance of the Downstream R&M and Chemicals business offset the effect of weaker margins and we expect to see a broad recovery over the next nine months, particularly in oil Refining and Marketing. Overall, first quarter operations generated a cash flow of €3.42 billion, up 8% and €1.5 billion greater than the investments for the period of around €1.9 billion, which is in line with the expectations of €8 billion for the whole year. The Group confirms that it can leverage on the quality and robustness of its asset portfolio, capable of covering costs, investments and dividends at a Brent price of US$ 55, in addition to generating a cash surplus in the event of higher prices, as in current trading conditions.”
An Introduction to Bioinformatics
Drexel University INFO648-900-200915
A Presentation of Health Informatics Group 5
Cecilia Vernes
Joel Abueg
Kadodjomon Yeo
Sharon McDowell Hall
Terrence Hughes
1. São Paulo. 07 de março de 2012November 2015
CEO Forum
The Leadership's View
Bradesco BBI
2. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
2
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
3. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
3
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
4. Dry seasonWet Season
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16
80%LTA (Thermal Dispatch 90%) 90%LTA (Thermal Dispatch 70%)
100%LTA (Thermal Dispatch 50%) Average 1997-2014
2016 | Scenarios for reservoir levels
For 2016, the expectation is to reach a reservoir level in November similar to the average in the period
1997-2014 considering 90% of LTA and thermal dispatch of 70%
(85% of thermal
capacity)
4
5. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
5
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
6. 6
Regulated Market (ACR): generator transfers the hydrological risk to the consumer
PM 688 | Renegotiation of Hydrological Risk
Free Market (ACL): generator does not transfer the hydrological risk
to the consumer, but contracts a hedge
• Choose a protection level against the GSF
• Transfer secondary energy gains to the consumer
• Keep risk of reduction in physical guarantee
P
SP
SPR
Product Generator Choices
• Choose a protection level against the GSF
• Keep gains with secondary energy
• Keep risk of reduction in physical guarantee
• Full protection against the GSF
• Transfer secondary energy gains to the consumer
• No risk of physical guarantee reduction
• Risk premium equivalent to
a reduction of 10% in the
price of the PPA
0%
11%
12.76
4.13
Risk
Premium
(R$/MWh)
Risk
0%
11%
9.31
0.68
Risk
• Existent reserve energy to be contracted until 2019 and additional reserve energy from 2020 until concession expiring
• Reference Price: R$ 207/MWh
Risk
Premium
(R$/MWh)
7. Higher flexibility of options allows
adhesion of agents with different
contracting levels and risk perception
PM 688 | Hydrological Risk Renegotiation
Adhering to the renegotiation, 2015 GSF will be reimbursed
Proposal
Next steps
Protection against GSF, up to 100%, by the payment
of a risk premium
Regulated
Market
(ACR)
Need of a definition about the
regulation of reserve energy
contracting
Generator contracts hedge to mitigate hydrological
risk
Free
Market
(ACL)
Approval by Senate
ANEEL
Regulation
Analysis and Internal Approvals
Generators
adhesion
Current text, that is already being discussed in Senate, does not bring significant
changes Companies may proceed with analysis
If approved, new amendments to the PM688 should be regulated agents still
wait for more details
7
8. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
8
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
9. 9
Delinquency
Energy Bills
CPFL Energia
Energy Bills
Group B
Delinquency Evolution
R$ Million in D90/Revenues (LTM)
25 26
14
5
23 24
15
23 21
41
3234
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Allowance for doubtful accounts
R$ Million
Average
33
Disregard large
industrial customer in
bankruptcy
(R$ 7 million)
Average
2Q15-
3Q15:
Average 1Q13-1Q15:
R$ 20 million
10. Delinquency
Energy Bills
CPFL Energia
Energy Bills
Group B
3Q14
3.18%
3Q15
3.88%
Delinquency Evolution
R$ million in D90/Revenues (LTM)
25 26
14
5
23 24
15
23 21
41
3234
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Allowance for doubtful accounts
R$ million
Average
33
Disregard large
industrial customer in
bankruptcy
(R$ 7 million)
Average
2Q15-
3Q15:
Average 1Q13-
1Q15:R$ 20 million
10
11. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
11
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
12. 4th Tariff Review Cycle CPFL Piratininga | Increase of Parcel B and
pass-through of accumulated CVA and others financial components
1) CAOM = Administration, Operation and Maintenance Cost and CAIMI = Annual costs for fixtures, vehicles and IT
Increase of 5.31% in Parcel B from R$
717 million to R$ 755 million
Increase of Net RAB
Increase of WACC from 7.50% to 8.09%
Addition of special obligations remuneration
Accumulated CVA and other financial
components to be passed through to tariffs
Pass-through of R$ 475 million in CVA and
others financial components
4TRC x ETR
7.13% 0.93% 13.05% 21.11%
Tariff Review final result|October, 2015 (R$ million)
Gross Regulatory Asset Base 3.020
Depreciation rate 3.65%
Depreciation Quota 110
Net Regulatory Asset Base 1.906
Pre-tax WACC 12.26%
Capital Return 234
Special Obligations 10
Regulatory EBITDA 354
OPEX1
= CAOM + CAIMI 447
Parcel B 801
Parcel B adjusted by market (-) Other revenues 755
Parcel A 3.649
Required Revenue 4.404
Reconciliation of Regulatory EBITDA | 3rd and 4th Tariff Review Cycle (R$ million)
12
13. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
13
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
14. 14
65 55 2.81 | 7.005
7.74 | 7.63 5.28 | 6.47
23 20 3.19 | 7.005
7.55 | 8.08 5.20 | 6.49
26 22 3.64 | 7.005
9.62 | 9.45 6.30 | 7.15
15 12 6.32 | 7.005
5.41 | 7.00 4.32 | 6.00
19 16 3.22 | 7.005
6.42 | 8.79 5.88 | 7.40
Ratios: Financial and Quality
The quality and financial ratios do not represent a
risk to the CPFL Energia distributors which are
participating in the concession renewal process
Renewal of Distribution Concessions
5 years of Test: The Disco can not break the financial and quality ratios for 2 consecutive years or at the 5th year
6th year and onwards : the Disco can not break; (i) the financial ratios for 2 consecutive years and (ii) the quality
ratios for 3 years (during 5 years) – Start the Concession Expiration
If the company does not meet requirements: limitation of dividends distribution and the company will not be
allowed to participate in greenfield projects
1) EBITDA 3Q15LTM; 2) DQ – Depreciation Quota (Anual Tariff Adjustment 2014); 3) Net Debt (Sep-15); 4) 2014; 5) Regulatory reference simulated with Selic Rate
of 12.87% p.a.
19 Discos do not meet the financial
requirements ratios for 2020
16 from 19 Discos do not meet the
quality requirements ratios for 2020
M&A
Possibilities
15. Topics for discussion
Storage scenarios1
2 Renegotiation of the hydrological risk
3 Delinquency
4 4th Tariff Review Cycle
15
5 Renewal of distribution concessions
6 Controllers
16. Evolution of the Stake of Controlling Shareholders
Previ: During the 1Q15 and 2Q15, Previ has reduced its stake from 30.0% to 29.5%, selling part of its free
shares
Stock dividend: A 3.19% stock dividend occurred on May 06, 2015, as approved in the Extraordinary General
Shareholders’ Meeting. These shares were unbounded from the control block
Camargo Correa: After the Stock Dividend, Camargo Correa sold its Unbound shares
Until October, there were no shares sales by the Controlling Shareholders
Source: Standardized Financial Statements (DFP) form, Quarterly Information (ITR) forms and CVM 358 form of CPFL Energia16
9.6%
3.4%
20,4%
24.3%
11.7%
30.5%
December/14
Previ
Free Float
Camargo
Bonaire
9.7%
3.8%
19.8%
23.6%
11.3%
31.9%
October/15
Previ
Free Float
Camargo
Bonaire
0.1%
P
C B
P
B