Inflation in Pakistan declined significantly in FY15, averaging 4.56% compared to 8.62% in the previous fiscal year. This was driven by lower fuel and food inflation as well as stable exchange rates. Core inflation also trended downward, reaching 4.6% YoY in June 2015. However, inflation is expected to rise to around 6.2-6.5% in FY16 due to budgetary measures, higher energy prices, and increasing demand as interest rates fall. The central bank may cut rates further to 6.5% in July given lower recent inflation, but inflation is forecast to increase in the second half of FY16, potentially reversing monetary policy.
A KSH a tegnapi napon publikálta a májusi inflációs adat. A közlés szerint 1,9% volt az áremelkedés üteme. Ez megegyezett a piaci elemzők konszenzusával, viszont meghaladta az OTP Elemzési Központ 1,9%-os várakozását.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
A KSH a tegnapi napon publikálta a májusi inflációs adat. A közlés szerint 1,9% volt az áremelkedés üteme. Ez megegyezett a piaci elemzők konszenzusával, viszont meghaladta az OTP Elemzési Központ 1,9%-os várakozását.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook remains challenging.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
The long-term costs of major health care programs: fiscal implications and pr...OECD Governance
This presentation was made by Jessica Banthin, United States, at the 4th meeting of the Joint DELSA/GOV-SBO Network on Fiscal Sustainability of Health Systems, held in Paris on 16-17 February 2015.
delsa-gov-sbo-health-february-2015
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence.
As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.
Inflation is an increase in the aggregate money price level. In 2015, Vietnam has reached its lowest annual Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) in the last decade of 0.63%. This allowed the country to stimulate production and grow well for a short term. However, the inflation needs to increase to 4-5% for a long-term growth. Thus, the government has made some moves to spike up inflation at a control level in 2016. Along with this action, the increase in the world price of oil and the decrease in Vietnam’s food supply have contributed to the rise of inflation during the first five months of 2016. The inflation rate is projected to grow to more than 5% in the end of 2016 and will continuously grow in 2017.
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook remains challenging.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
The long-term costs of major health care programs: fiscal implications and pr...OECD Governance
This presentation was made by Jessica Banthin, United States, at the 4th meeting of the Joint DELSA/GOV-SBO Network on Fiscal Sustainability of Health Systems, held in Paris on 16-17 February 2015.
delsa-gov-sbo-health-february-2015
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
EUpDates—A Monthly Statistical Bulletin of Economic IndicatorsEcofin Surge
Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising a Quick Review of the Economy and about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
The Ukrainian economy recovered modestly by 2.3% in 2016, with a bumper agriculture harvest leading to stronger growth of 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Decisive reforms in the face of unprecedented shocks in 2014 and 2015 helped to stabilize confidence.
As a result, real GDP grew modestly by 2.3 percent in 2016 after contracting by a cumulative 16 percent in the previous two years. Signs of stronger growth of 4.8 percent (y-o-y) emerged in the fourth quarter of 2016. The recovery was supported by a bumper harvest, with agriculture growing by 6 percent in 2016 overall and 18.4 percent (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter.
Inflation is an increase in the aggregate money price level. In 2015, Vietnam has reached its lowest annual Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) in the last decade of 0.63%. This allowed the country to stimulate production and grow well for a short term. However, the inflation needs to increase to 4-5% for a long-term growth. Thus, the government has made some moves to spike up inflation at a control level in 2016. Along with this action, the increase in the world price of oil and the decrease in Vietnam’s food supply have contributed to the rise of inflation during the first five months of 2016. The inflation rate is projected to grow to more than 5% in the end of 2016 and will continuously grow in 2017.
Will RBI rate cut keep inflation under check in 2015?IndiaNotes.com
While RBI has begun the rate cut cycle, plenty of headroom for further cuts would be generated going forward as low inflation would be the defining feature of 2015.
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we discuss China’s GDP release for Q2:2016, policy stance of Bank of England and IMF’s latest global growth forecast in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, we present analysis of the trends emanating out of the recent releases on Monsoon progress, IIP, Inflation, Trade and CII’s Business Outlook Survey Results for Q1FY17. In Policy Focus, we present the highlights of the key policy documents released during June-July 2016. In Focus of the Month,the topic ‘Transforming Healthcare in India' has been covered.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
It gives me a pleasure to present the summary and analysis of Union Budget 2016.
While you may have the snapshot, here is a document which will not only give you crisp highlights, but would also decode the impact of Budget 2016 on You, Your company and Your sector.
Hope you find this analysis useful in taking business decisions and align your company's strategy with over all economic climate for the upcoming financial year.
Would love to hear your feedback on the usefulness of the same.
Thanks a lot.
Union Budget Preview - Reinforcement of Fiscal Stimulusemkayglobal
The Union Budget is round the corner and as it comes closer, speculation is getting rife. In this report we bring to you a preview into what you can expect from this year's budget and its impact in the ensuing period
SCB EIC revised down the Thai economic growth outlook in 2023 to 3.1% (from 3.9%) due mainly to much lower-than-expected outturn in Q2 and continued export contraction. Still, there remains impetus from private consumption and tourism sector. Foreign tourist arrivals experience a buoyant recovery and will approach 30 million people as projected this year, particularly the Middle East visitors that could be Thailand’s new potential target. As a result, the service sector recorded a steady rebound and helped reduce fragility in the labor market. In 2024, we expect that Thailand’s economy will accelerate to 3.5% with an upbeat recovery in foreign tourists around 37.7 million. Also, private investment is expected to grow in line with the better trend of investment greenlights from Thailand's Board of Investment (BOI). Also, Thai exports will regain momentum and provide thrust to overall growth in 2024.
Headline inflation is expected to escalate since Q4, but should remain anchored within the target range at 1.7% in 2023 and 2% in 2024—driven by higher energy and food prices. Meanwhile, the core inflation will likely stay elevated at 1.4% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. SCB EIC anticipates another policy rate hike in the September meeting to the terminal point of 2.5% since the Thai economy will continue to regain its potential. Inflation will encounter upside risks from higher energy and food prices. The real interest rate should therefore return to a positive trajectory, that will support Thailand’s economic and financial stability in the long term by preempting the buildup of financial imbalances during a prolonged period of low interest rates.
The global economic rebound will be increasingly unsynchronized. Based on our forecast, the global economic growth should ascend to 2.4% in 2023 and stand steady throughout 2024. The global economy has been outperforming the consensus. Yet, we observed a persistent fragility that could continue into 2024—as a result of rampant inflation, policy rate hikes among major economies, and depleting excess savings. Furthermore, China’s economy will face a slowdown over the short and long term as structural challenges could hamper the growth outlook.
Advanced economies' rate hike cycle will come to an end within this year. Rising commodity prices could drive global headline inflation around the year-end. Likewise, core inflation in major economies should stay elevated as tight labor markets continue to support labor income. Against such backdrops, the US Federal Reserve tended to keep its current policy rate at 5.25-5.5% until Q2/2024. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will slightly raise policy rates in the rest of 2023 and maintain their restrictive rates for the time being. Monetary easing is expected in 2H/2024 after core inflation subsides. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China has stayed the course on monetary easing to bolster a flagging economy. In contrast, the Bank of Japan will likely scale
In our latest report we provide our assessment of the impact that recent events had on the Greek economy as well as our macroeconomic forecast for the next 2 years
Similar to BMA Capital - Pakistan economy fy15 inflation review and outlook (20)
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Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
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Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
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Enterprise Excellence is Inclusive Excellence.pdfKaiNexus
Enterprise excellence and inclusive excellence are closely linked, and real-world challenges have shown that both are essential to the success of any organization. To achieve enterprise excellence, organizations must focus on improving their operations and processes while creating an inclusive environment that engages everyone. In this interactive session, the facilitator will highlight commonly established business practices and how they limit our ability to engage everyone every day. More importantly, though, participants will likely gain increased awareness of what we can do differently to maximize enterprise excellence through deliberate inclusion.
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Dr. William Harvey is a seasoned Operations Leader with extensive experience in chemical processing, manufacturing, and operations management. At Michelman, he currently oversees multiple sites, leading teams in strategic planning and coaching/practicing continuous improvement. William is set to start his eighth year of teaching at the University of Cincinnati where he teaches marketing, finance, and management. William holds various certifications in change management, quality, leadership, operational excellence, team building, and DiSC, among others.
Cracking the Workplace Discipline Code Main.pptxWorkforce Group
Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
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Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
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India Orthopedic Devices Market: Unlocking Growth Secrets, Trends and Develop...Kumar Satyam
According to TechSci Research report, “India Orthopedic Devices Market -Industry Size, Share, Trends, Competition Forecast & Opportunities, 2030”, the India Orthopedic Devices Market stood at USD 1,280.54 Million in 2024 and is anticipated to grow with a CAGR of 7.84% in the forecast period, 2026-2030F. The India Orthopedic Devices Market is being driven by several factors. The most prominent ones include an increase in the elderly population, who are more prone to orthopedic conditions such as osteoporosis and arthritis. Moreover, the rise in sports injuries and road accidents are also contributing to the demand for orthopedic devices. Advances in technology and the introduction of innovative implants and prosthetics have further propelled the market growth. Additionally, government initiatives aimed at improving healthcare infrastructure and the increasing prevalence of lifestyle diseases have led to an upward trend in orthopedic surgeries, thereby fueling the market demand for these devices.
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Putting the SPARK into Virtual Training.pptxCynthia Clay
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BMA Capital - Pakistan economy fy15 inflation review and outlook
1.
Benign inflationary trend continued towards the tail‐end of FY15 with CPI for Jun’15 at
3.16%YoY, bringing average inflation for FY15 to 4.56% compared to 8.62% last year.
The notable decline in inflation can be attributed to i) deflation in fuel inflation leading
to its trickle down positive impact on the economy, ii) tamed food inflation at 2.4%YoY,
and iii) muted imported inflation on account of stable exchange rate. On a sequential
basis, monthly inflation reading came as a positive surprise with MoM expansion at
0.6% in stark contrast to SPI readings which expanded by 2.1% over the past five weeks.
The lower than expected inflation came on the back of a deflation of 2.2%MoM in
perishable food items. In FY16, inflationary pressures may potentially emanate from
cost side in the wake of budgetary measures coupled with upward adjustment in
administered energy prices. In this regard, inculcating an average monthly inflation of
0.7%, headline inflation may potentially clock in at ~6.2‐6.5% in FY16, squeezing
effective real interest rate to 50bps (considering prevailing DR of 7.0%) vs. current
spreads of 350+bps. However, recent inflation numbers may potentially provide an
opportunity to the central bank to further reduce the DR by another 50bps to 6.5% in
upcoming MPS. That said, we flag a real risk to the sustainability of lower DR
particularly towards the end of CY15 where expected reversal in inflation during 2HFY16
will potentially result in a reversal in the monetary policy stance.
FY15 Inflation Review: FY15 ended on a positive note where headline inflation for Jun’15
clocked in at 3.2%YoY, lower than broad market consensus. At the same time, the reading
was significantly lower than 8.2%YoY registered in Jun’14. This has taken FY15 average
inflation to 4.56%, in‐line with SBP and BMA expectation of 4.6%. FY15 proved to be an
exceptional year where monthly CPI reading dipped to a decade low reading of 2.1%
registered in Apr’15. The notable improvement in domestic inflationary environment can
be attributed to i) decelerating fuel index (CPI weight: 3.0%) by 17.3%YoY, contributing
0.52% in overall CPI basket on the back of global meltdown in crude oil price (Arab Light
down by 45%YoY), ii) soft commodity prices due to better domestic output and supply
situation coupled with benign global commodity prices, iii) tamed increase in money
supply which expanded by 10.1% during FY15 compared to 12.25% in the preceding year,
and iv) lower imported inflation due to stable exchange rate followed by lower oil import
bill.
On a sequential basis, CPI accelerated by 0.6%MoM, 35bps higher than 12month moving
average of 0.26% due to i) uptick in food basket, up 0.61%MoM owing to the increase in
prices of non‐perishable food items, ii) a whopping increase of 13.3%MoM in alcoholic
beverages and tobacco basket in the wake of budgetary measures, and iii) transport
segment increased by 1%MoM due to higher fuel index, up 2.7%MoM. That said,
favorable base effect has contained overall inflation to 3.16%YoY.
Core inflation; following a downward trajectory: Following sliding headline inflation,
Non‐food and Non‐energy (a measure of core inflation) remained on the downward
trajectory with latest reading clocking in at 4.6%YoY, having receded for 10 consecutive
months now. In addition, trimmed core inflation stood at 3.8%YoY in Jun’15, down from
3.9%YoY and 7.9%YoY recorded in May’15 and Jun’14, respectively. The marked
improvement in core inflation is primarily a function of stable exchange rate coupled with
Pakistan Economy
Thursday Jul 02, 2015
FY15 inflation review and outlook
Select Economic Indicators
CPI Inflation Jun‐15 YoY 3.2%
SPI Inflation Jun‐15 YoY 1.2%
NFNE Inflation Jun‐15 YoY 4.6%
Reserves 01‐Jul‐15 USD18.5bn
Remittances 11MFY15 USD16.6bn
Trade Balance 11MFY15 USD(15.5bn)
Current A/c deficit 11MFY15 USD(2.0bn)
6 Month KIBOR
(Offer Rate)
30‐Jun‐15 7.0%
10 Year PIB 30‐Jun‐15 9.4%
Discount Rate 7.0%
Percentage points contribution in CPI basket
Inflationary Trends
Iqbal Dinani
Iqbal.dinani@bmacapital.com
+92 111 262 111 Ext:2059
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Aug'02
Jul'03
Jun'04
May'05
Apr'06
Mar'07
Feb'08
Jan'09
Dec'09
Nov'10
Oct‐11
Sep‐12
Aug‐13
Jul‐14
Jun‐15
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
FY15 FY14 FY13
Non‐perishable Food Perishable Food
Clothing & Footwear Furnishing & Household
Transport Housing and Utilities
Others
Source: PBS, BMA Research
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bearish global commodity prices which led to a decline in the domestic prices (excluding
oil and food).
Inflation and DR outlook FY16: Going forward, we expect upward pressure on inflation in
FY16 due to rising retail prices post implementation of Federal Budget FY16, upward
revision in administered prices and expected increase in aggregate demand due to sliding
benchmark interest rates. Thus, we expect FY16 average inflation to clock in at 6.2%‐6.5%,
incorporating monthly inflation of 0.7%. Given below expected inflation reading for Jun’15
and subsequent expected soft inflation in 1HFY16 to 4.2% due to high base effect, the
central bank may potentially pursue a dovish stance in its upcoming MPS which is due in
Jul’15. Therefore, we may surprisingly observe Discount Rate hitting a new low of 6.5%
(down 50bps from prevailing 7.0%), contrary to our earlier expectation of status quo.
However, we flag a cautious stance on inflation outlook as we foresee it to spike
northwards in 2HFY16, leading to a potential reversal in monetary policy stance by SBP.
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