Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook remains challenging.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
Az üzemanyagárak emelkedése 3% fölé vitte júniusban az inflációt, azonban a jegybanki cél fölötti pénzromlási ütem újabb sokk hiányában nem lesz tartós. Noha az alapfolyamatokból következő árnyomás folyamatosan erősödik majd, a külső tételek (üzemanyag, élelmiszer, hatósági árak, jövedéki adós termékek) egész 2019. végéig 3% alatt tarthatják a fogyasztói árindexet.
Fed must relent. Our expectations now is for a state dependent (global financial conditions to stabilise, cushion rising debt repayment burden and allowing domestic leverage to level off, coupled with still moderate economic growth/inflation, policy options to widen positively globally, especially in China) Fed relent with scope for a final 25-50bps, if any (pause otherwise), in late 2019/2020, should the cycle extents, with the FFR hitting cycle terminal at 2.75-3.00%.
Flash Report - Hungarian Inflation - 11 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2%-ra emelkedett az éves bázisú fogyasztói árindex márciusban, azonban továbbra is számos hatás fékezi az árnyomás erősödését. Idén 2% közelében maradhat az infláció, jövőre azonban akár gyors emelkedést is láthatunk, ha az egyszeri tételek hatása kifut.
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we cover the implications of Brexit for Britain and India, update on recent forecasts by World Bank, economic prospects of US economy and European Central Bank’s policy stance in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, Mr. Ajay Shriram, Past President, CII writes an article on the two years of Modi Government. Additionally, we also analyse the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy, Trade and Balance of Payments. In Corporate Performance section we examine the corporate profitability trends for firms for the year FY16. From this issue, we have introduced a new section named as Policy Focus, in which we analyse the key policy documents released during the May-June 2016. In Focus of the Month, we cover the topic ‘India’s Trade & International Alliances’.
Ukraine Monthly Economic Review, June 2017 DIXI Group
Highlights
The government drafted a pension reform and introduced the bills to the Parliament. In its updated memorandum, the IMF is also demanding a land reform and additional measures against corruption. We think the next IMF tranche may be released after the summer break, likely in autumn 2017.
Recent economic indicators point to better economic conditions: Q1 GDP has been slightly revised upwards to 2.5% yoy, and the May figures for industrial production (1.2% yoy) and retail sales (10.7% yoy) have been better than expected. Nevertheless, with cumulative industrial output down in the first five months of 2017, we lowered our GDP growth estimate for 2017 from 2% to 1.5% yoy.
The inflation rate accelerated to 13.5 % yoy in May, due to higher food prices. Nevertheless, the National Bank may cut the key interest rate further by 50bp to 12% in order to support economic growth at its next meeting on Thursday, 6 July.
FX reserves reached USD 17.6 bn in end-May, given a favourable situation on the FX market allowing for FX purchases. The exchange rate traded rather stable around USD/UAH 26.
The NBU tweaked FX market regulation, simplifying investment abroad and FX forward transactions as well as introducing electronic FX transfer licenses for individuals.
Global growth is moderatng as the recovery in trade
and manufacturing actvity loses steam. Despite
ongoing negotatons, trade tensions among major
economies remain elevated. These tensions, combined
with concerns about sofening global growth prospects, have weighed on investor sentment and contributed to
declines in global equity prices. Borrowing costs for
emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)
have increased, in part as major advanced-economy
central banks contnue to withdraw policy
accommodaton in varying degrees. A strengthening
U.S. dollar, heightened financial market volatlity, and
rising risk premiums have intensified capital outlow
and currency pressures in some large EMDEs, with
some vulnerable countries experiencing substantal
financial stress. Energy prices have fluctuated markedly,
mainly due to supply factors, with sharp falls toward
the end of 2018. Economic actvity in the Euro Area has
been somewhat weaker than previously expected,
owing to slowing net exports. EMDE growth edged
down to an estmated 4.2 percent in 2018 as a number
of countries with elevated current account deficits
experienced substantal financial market pressures and
appreciable slowdowns in actvity. In low-income
countries (LICs), growth is firming as infrastructure
investment contnues and easing drought conditons
support a rebound in agricultural output.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. June 2018Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
Swiss Re sigma 3/2019: World insurance: the great pivot east continuesΔρ. Γιώργος K. Κασάπης
Global insurance premium volumes passed a new benchmark high of USD 5 trillion in 2018. Global life premium growth was weak, but there was solid performance in non-life in 2018.
The central narrative of this year's annual world insurance sigma is the continued rise of the emerging markets, mostly emerging Asia and China in particular, as the main drivers of industry growth. From 11% in 2018, China's share of global premiums will rise to 20% by 2029. China remains on course to become the world's biggest insurance market by mid-2030s. The whole of Asia-Pacific will account for 42% of the global premiums by 2029.
Swiss Re Institute forecasts close to 3% global premium growth in real terms per annum in 2019/20, against a slowing but still positive economic backdrop. Advanced market premiums will grow by 1.5%, and emerging markets by 7.9%. China will be the largest contributor, in both life and non-life. Overall, however, the advanced markets will still provide almost half of additional premiums in absolute terms in the next two years.
ChoiceBroking - Q2FY16 GDP growth at 7.4%; robust manufacturing expansion indicates revival in economic scenario. To read our monthly economic outlook please click here http://bit.ly/1QTqJKI
Monetary policy is the policy adopted by the authority of a nation to control either the interest rate payable for very short term borrowings or the money supply, often as an attempt to reduce inflation or the interest rate, to ensure price stability and general trust of the value and stability of the nation's currency for every financial year based on the quarter, the new policy is made and executed for the growth of the economy. The RBI carries out the monetary policy through open market tasks, bank rate strategy, reserve system, credit control strategy, moral influence and through numerous different instruments.
We like rates structurally, both on adequate valuations (breakeven levels: 5y, 3.55% (2.98%); and 10y, 3.36% (3.09%)) and as a hedge for risk assets, taking the under on the (largely) priced base case of a smooth 3 year (2018-2020) rate hiking cycle. Based on our macro risk-neutral model and pure expectations, we see 1.80-2.50% and 2.10-2.30% on the UST 5 and 10. Our view is to stay long on the UST 5-10y, prefer 7y; tactical view suggests range trading, 10T around 2.80-3.20%, into 1H19 (Fed hikes by 75bps to 2.75-3.00% by 1H19; anchor extent of rates rally; near term upside risks of a Republican sweep of the mid-terms, providing the President and the Republican Party with another opportunity to pursue even looser (pro-wealth) fiscal policy.
Highlights on Global Central Bank Policy Rates as on July 2014Jhunjhunwalas
Highlights on Global Central Bank Policy Rates as on July 2014
#CentralBankOfHungary reduced BaseRate by 20 basis points to 2.10% with effect from 23rd July 2014
#Hungary #MagyarNemztiBank #MNB
#CentralBankOfRussia raised #KeyRate to 8.0 % on July 25th 2014 , #Russia #CBR #BankOfRussia
#ReserveBankOfNewZealand raised OfficialCashRate by 25 basis points to 3.50% on 24th July 2014 , #RBNZ #NewZealand
#CentralBankofNigeria retains #MonetaryPolicyRate at 12% #MPR,#MPC Monetary Policy Comittee met on 21st and 22nd July 2014.
#MonetaryPolicy of #CentralBankofTrinidadAndTobago maintains #RepoRate at 2.75%
#BankOfIsrael , As on 28th July 2014 the #MonetaryCommittee reduces the #InterestRate for August 2014 by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.5 percent, #BankIsrael #CentralBankOfIsrael #Israel
Monthly Newsletter on key sectors of Pakistan Economy with updates on Money Market and Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) and latest numbers of Inflation, Current and Fiscal Account.
Fitch affirms south africa at 'bb+'; outlook stableSABC News
South Africa's ratings are weighed down by low trend growth, sizeable government debt and contingent liabilities and deteriorating governance standards. These weaknesses are balanced by a favourable government debt structure, deep local capital markets and a flexible exchange rate that helps to absorb external shocks. The affirmation reflects that while a number of developments point to a weaker fiscal outlook and consequent faster pace of debt accumulation, potential fiscal consolidation measures after the ANC's elective conference in December could mitigate those trends. Additionally, GDP growth could recover more strongly than currently anticipated if the outcome of the conference is viewed favourably by consumers and businesses.
Ministry of Justice Extradition Eswatini 3.pdfSABC News
The Ministry of Justice and Correctional Services has confirmed that an extradition application for the two men linked to the murder of Kiernan 'AKA' Forbes and Tebello 'Tibz' Motsoane has been approved and sent to the Director of Public Prosecutions in eSwatini.
January’s Producer Price Index increases to 4.7%SABC News
Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has released the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January, which rose to 4.7% year-on-year, compared with 4% in December.
MEC MAJUBA SADDENED BY THE PASSING AWAY OF THREE TEACHERS FOLLOWING A CAR ACC...SABC News
The Mpumalanga Department of Education has learnt with shock and sadness about an accident which claimed the lives of three teachers along the N4 road towards Mbombela.
Minister Gordhan Announces New Transnet Board Appointments_11 July 2023.pdfSABC News
The nine Trasnet Non-Executive Directors and the reappointment of two will serve a three-year term. Andile Sangqu has been appointed as the new Chairperson.
REMNANTS OF FREDDY BRINGS HEAVY RAINS IN SOME PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA WHICH MIG...SABC News
The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA), Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma has called on communities to heed the warning from the South African Weather Service (SAWS) and the disaster management teams across the country.
Letter to the Speaker re extension 14 November 2022.pdfSABC News
Parliament's spokesperson Moloto Mothapo says retried Chief Justice Sandile Ngcobo, who is chairing the panel, has written to Mapisa-Nqakula asking for an extension.
Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola’s Keynote Address...SABC News
Minister of Justice and Correctional Services Ronald Lamola’s Keynote Address at the Rand Merchant Bank Investment Big Five Investment Conference, 13 September 2022
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.
MPC Statement 19 July 2018
1. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 1
South African Reserve Bank
PRESS STATEMENT
EMBARGO DELIVERY
19 July 2018
STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE
Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
Since the previous meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), several risks
to the inflation outlook have begun to materialise. While headline inflation is
comfortably within the inflation target band, indications are that we have passed the
low point of the current cycle. Developments in the international environment have
placed upward pressure on the inflation trajectory, while the domestic growth outlook
remains challenging.
The year-on-year inflation rate, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for
all urban areas, was 4.4% in May 2018 and accelerated to 4.6% in June. Goods
price inflation increased to 4.2% (up from 3.5% in May), while services price inflation
moderated to 4.9% (down from 5.3%). The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB)
measure of core inflation – which excludes food, fuel and electricity – declined to
4.2% in June. Producer price inflation for final manufactured goods increased
marginally to 4.6% in May.
2. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 2
Despite remaining within the target band throughout the forecast period, the SARB’s
model projects an increase in headline inflation, peaking at levels closer to the upper
end of the target range. Thus far, the impact of the value-added tax (VAT) increase
appears to have been less than anticipated. However, the weaker rand exchange
rate and the higher oil price assumptions result in a more elevated inflation trajectory.
Headline inflation is now expected to average 4.8% in 2018 (down from 4.9%) before
increasing to 5.6% in 2019 and decreasing again to 5.4% in 2020 (up from 5.2% in
both years). Headline CPI inflation is expected to peak at around 5.7% in the first
and second quarters of 2019 before declining to 5.3% at the end of 2020. The
forecast for core inflation is 4.6% in 2018 (up from 4.5%), 5.5% in 2019 and 5.3% in
2020 (up from 5.1% in both years).
Inflation expectations, as reflected in the survey conducted by the Bureau for
Economic Research (BER) during the second quarter of 2018, are largely
unchanged in the near term, averaging 5.2% in 2018, 5.4% in 2019 and 5.5% in
2020. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations are at a historical low of 5.4%.
Expectations implicit in the break-even inflation rates (i.e. the yield differential
between conventional and inflation-linked government bonds) declined marginally
across all maturities.
While the global economic outlook has remained broadly favourable, expectations
are that world growth will begin to slow in the third quarter of 2018. In addition,
escalating trade tensions are contributing to uncertainty around global trade. World
trade volumes contracted sharply in April 2018 – the worst performance since May
2015. The global inflation outlook remains benign but is on a moderate upward path,
3. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 3
largely due to the rising oil prices. The prices of most other commodities have been
retreating.
Since the previous meeting of the MPC, the rand has depreciated by 7.2% against
the US dollar, by 6.2% against the euro, and by 4.9% on a trade-weighted basis. At
current levels, the SARB’s model assesses the rand to be undervalued. It is likely
that the local currency, along with other emerging market currencies, will remain
volatile. The implied starting point for the rand is R13.40 against the US dollar
compared with R12.37 at the time of the previous MPC meeting.
A key external risk to the rand remains the possibility of tighter global financial
conditions. However, the pace of monetary policy normalisation in the advanced
economies continues to be gradual. At this stage, further policy tightening by the
United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to follow a measured path in
the absence of significant inflation or growth surprises. Higher-than-expected US
fiscal deficits could result in a stronger monetary policy response.
The domestic economic growth outlook for this year is weaker than we had expected
in May. Following the broad-based contraction of 2.2% in the first quarter and early
indications of modest growth in the second quarter, the SARB’s forecast now
indicates a growth rate of 1.2% for 2018 compared with 1.7% previously. The
forecast for 2019 is 1.9%, marginally higher than the previous forecast of 1.7%, while
the forecast for 2020 is unchanged at 2.0%. At these growth rates, the negative
output gap is wider in the near term but is still expected to close in 2020.
The composite leading business cycle indicator declined for the second consecutive
month in April, consistent with a deteriorating outlook. Business confidence, as
reflected in the Rand Merchant Bank (RMB)/BER business confidence index,
4. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 4
decreased to 39 index points in the second quarter. In this context, gross fixed
capital formation contracted by 3.2% in the first quarter and is expected to remain
weak in 2018.
Consumption expenditure by households, although slightly weaker than last year, is
expected to be positively impacted by the improved consumer confidence and the
increase in households’ disposable income. In the near term, however, consumption
expenditure is likely to be constrained by the VAT increase and other tax changes,
weak employment growth as well as subdued growth in credit extension to
households. Although credit extension to households increased earlier in 2018,
year-on-year growth remains low.
Average wage growth is expected to remain elevated at around 7% over the forecast
period. This is particularly a concern if labour productivity growth continues to
decline. Much of the upward pressure on wage inflation arises from the public sector
wage settlement, which is at levels above headline inflation.
Higher international oil prices will contribute to petrol price inflation in 2018. The
impact on headline inflation is somewhat moderated by lower food price inflation.
Annual food price inflation is expected to remain within the target range over the
forecast period, and is not seen as a major risk to the inflation outlook. This is largely
driven by an adequate supply of grains over the near term, alongside moderating
meat price increases.
The MPC noted the rising inflation trajectory which, while remaining within the target
range, is moving closer to the upper end of the range.
5. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 5
Key uncertainties in the global environment remain. The continued strength of the
US dollar (which has appreciated against most currencies), any sustained elevation
of oil prices, escalating trade tensions as well as geopolitical developments continue
to pose risks to the inflation outlook. The rand will remain sensitive to changes in
global monetary policy settings and investor sentiment towards the emerging
markets.
The MPC assesses the risks to the inflation forecast to be on the upside. A number
of key risks and uncertainties highlighted in recent meetings persist. Electricity prices
continue to pose a further upside risk.
The growth forecast has deteriorated, and the outlook remains constrained. Demand
pressures in the economy are not assessed to pose a risk to the inflation outlook.
The MPC assesses the risks to the growth forecast to be more or less balanced. A
firm commitment to credible structural policy initiatives and implementation is
required to make a marked impact on employment and potential output.
The MPC unanimously decided to keep the repurchase rate unchanged at 6.5% per
annum. At these levels, the MPC still assesses the stance of monetary policy to be
accommodative and appropriate given the current state of the economy. However,
the MPC has noted the deteriorating inflation outlook, driven mainly by supply-side
factors. The approach of the MPC continues to be one of looking through the first-
round effects and focusing on the second-round effects. With risks and uncertainties
at higher levels, the MPC will continue to be vigilant and will not hesitate to act
should there be second-round effects that take us significantly away from the
midpoint of the inflation target range.
6. MPC Statement July 19th, 2018 Page 6
The implied path of policy rates generated by the Quarterly Projection Model has
changed since the previous MPC meeting. Whereas previously four increases of
25 basis points each by the end of 2020 were indicated, five increases of 25 basis
points are now implied. As emphasised previously, the implied path remains a broad
policy guide which can and does change in either direction between meetings in
response to new developments and changing risks. The MPC does not mechanically
respond to changes in the path, and the assessment of the balance of risks to the
forecast cannot be done by the model.
Lesetja Kganyago
GOVERNOR
The next statement of the Monetary Policy Committee will be released on
20 September 2018.
Contact person:
ZamaNdlovu Ndlovu
012 399 7118
media@resbank.co.za