This is from article Decision Making: Going Forward in Reverse by Hillel J.Einhorn and Robin M. Hogarth

1. Better Thinking Backward
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Use several metaphors
Do not rely on one cue alone
Sometimes go against the cues
Assess causal chains
Generate and test alternative explanations

2. 1. Use Several Metaphors
• Using several metaphors can be guard against prematurely
adopting a single model. Instead of focusing on one
metaphor, experiment with several.
• Example: complex organization, graduate school of
business.
Finishing School
Military Academic
Monasteries
Diploma Mills

3. 2. Do Not Rely on One Cue Alone
• Inferring causality from one cue = serious
error.
• Correlation does not always imply
causation, nor does causation always imply
correlation.

4. 3. Sometimes Go Against the Cues
• Benefit of cues: give structure to our perception and
help us interpret ambiguous information.
• To promote creative thinking: Go Against The Cues
When searching for an
explanation for a complex
outcome:
Look for a simple or
a dissimilar cause

5. 4. Assess Causal Chains
• The way to test potential causes and effects is
through a causal chain, but the strength of each
chain varies.
• Most causal chains are
only as strong as their
weakest links and long
chains are generally
weaker than short
ones.
• It is important to
evaluate chains
according to the
number and strength of
their links

6. 5. Generate and Test Alternative
Explanations

7. 5. Generate and Test Alternative
Explanations