1) Ethiopia aims to transition its economy to a green one through initiatives in its agriculture, forestry, power, and industry/transportation sectors in order to sustain economic growth while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 2) If Ethiopia follows a typical development path, emissions could increase from 150 million tons to 400 million tons from 2010-2030, but the green economy strategy could reduce emissions by 255 million tons annually by 2030. 3) Key elements of the strategy include improving agricultural practices, increasing forest coverage, expanding renewable energy, and advancing technologies in industry, transportation, and buildings.

1. FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AUTHORITY
Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green
Economy
Berhanu Solomon
EPA
July 2012

2. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
2
2010
30
147
2025 projected
38
36
26~10% p.a.
2015 GTP
51
Ethiopia wants to reach middle income status before 2025
Source: GoE GTP; EDRI
GDP, billion USD
Population
mln (mid-year)
8080 9191 117117
GDP/cap.
In USD
380380 520520 1.1701.170
▪ Diminishing weight of
agriculture from 42% to
26% of GDP
▪ Migration from agriculture
jobs to services and
industry
▪ Reaching of middle-
income status before 2025
Key transitions
Services
Industry
Agriculture

3. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
Why … a low carbonfuture?
Climate change:
▪poses significant threats,
▪the international response to climate change also
offers considerable opportunities,
3

4. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITYWhy … a low carbon future?
early estimates hold it that ….
`Under a carbon neutral growth trajectory
Ethiopia could offset in the region of 320
Million tonnes of carbon a year. Even with
the low current carbon price of US$10-20 per
tonne that could generate billions of dollars
for the country.`
4

5. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
5
If a typical development path were followed, emissions
would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030)
5
5
75
400
+167%
Buildings
Industry
Transport
Forestry
Agriculture
2030 – BAU
10
70
40
5
90
185
2010
150
5 5
55
1 Compound average growth rate
4.4%4.4%
2.6%2.6%
--
11.2%11.2%
15.7%15.7%
3.9%3.9%
▪ Average growth of cropland (estimated to reach
3.9% per year)
▪ Increase in population leading to higher fuelwood
consumption
▪ Livestock: Increase in cattle population and other
species (doubling from 2010-30)
▪ Soil: Increase in cultivated land (crops
production) and synthetic fertilizer
▪ Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100%
clean/renewable generation for on-grid (2014)
▪ Increase in passenger-km traveled projected
based on elasticity to real GDP
▪ Increase in ton-km of cargo transported based on
elasticity to real GDP
▪ Cement production (steep increase in GTP,
thereafter approach to MIC-level)
▪ Establishment and scale-up of industries in
textile, steel, fertilizer, mining and others
▪ Buildings and solid/liquid waste emissions
t CO2e/capitaBAU emissions development
Mt CO2e per year
CAGR1
Percent Drivers and rationale
Power

6. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
6
More than 85% of today’s GHG emissions in Ethiopia come
from forestry and agriculture
50%
3%
BuildingsIndustry
3%
Power
3%
Forestry
37%
Agriculture
3%
Transport
Share of GHG emissions, 2010
Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO2e in 2010

7. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
7
Challenges
▪ Increased poverty and
reduced food security
▪ Reduction of quality of life
and health
▪ Degradation of air and water
quality
▪ Dependency on commodities
and fuel imports
▪ Loss of natural assets and
biodiversity
Ethiopia following a typical (BAU) development path would imply a
number of national and global challenges and adverse effects
Fossil fuel dependent power supply
▪ Dependency on imports
▪ Increased pollution
Deforestation/degradation of forests
▪ Land erosion
▪ Health issues from fuelwood smoke
Unsustainable agriculture
▪ Reduction in soil fertility
▪ Increased vulnerability to drought and floods
Rapid growth of conventional transportation
▪ Congested cities with polluting vehicles
▪ Dependent on oil import
Unsustainable practices in growing industry
▪ Increase of air and water pollution
▪ Exhaustion of resources
Source: CRGE
Characteristics of conventional growth path

8. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
9
Developing a green economy combines economic
development and abatement
Source: CRGE
Green economy can help to avoid lock-in in old technology,
unsustainable growth and land use
Resilience
Combining eco-
nomic growth with
low GHG
emissions, e.g.
▪ Sustainable land
use via efficient
agriculture
▪ Sequestration in
forests
▪ Expansion of
renewable energy
▪ Resource efficient
advanced
technologies
Abatement
Development
Green
Economy
Focus CRGE Green Economy

9. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITYGreen Growth Strategy of Ethiopia
Five Steps -followed to develop GGS of Ethiopia
10

10. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
11
Long list of
potential
green growth
initiatives –
150+ initiatives
Abatement/
avoidance
potential –
GHG emissions
compared with
BAU if
initiative is
implemented
Effects on
GTP – potential
to contribute to
reaching targets
as outlined in
GTP
Cost effec-
tiveness
checked –
costs to reduce
or avoid one t of
CO2e
Feasibility in
local context –
technical and
institutional
implementability
Prioritised
measures for
inclusion in
CRGE plan –
>60 initiatives
150 potential green growth initiatives were screened, >60
have been shortlisted for inclusion in the CRGE strategy

11. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
12
The strategy for a green economy is based on four pillars
Middle income country in 2025
Agriculture –
Improving crop and
livestock practices
▪ Reduce defores-
tation by agricul-
tural intensification
and irrigation of
degraded land
▪ Use lower-emitting
techniques
▪ Improve animal
value chain
▪ Shift animal mix
▪ Mechanize draft
power
Forestry –
Protecting and
growing forests as
carbon stocks
▪ Reduce demand
for fuelwood via
efficient stoves
▪ Increase seques-
tration by affores-
tation/reforestation
and forest mana-
gement
Power – Deploying
renewable and
clean power
generation
▪ Build renewable
power generation
capacity and
switch-off fossil
fuel power
generation
▪ Export renewable
power to substitute
for fossil fuel
power generation
abroad
Industry, transport
and buildings –
Using advanced
technologies
▪ Improve industry
energy efficiency
▪ Improve produc-
tion processes
▪ Tighten fuel
efficiency of cars
▪ Construct electric
rail network
▪ Substitute fossil
fuel by biofuels
▪ Improve waste
management
Green economy strategy
Source: CRGE

12. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
18
The CRGE outlines how Ethiopia will reduce 255 mtCO2 per
year while ensuring economic growth
Additional
abatement
potential of
~19 Mt CO2e
from exporting
green power
to regional
markets
90
400
-64%
Green
Economy
2030
145
Buil-
dings
5
Industry
20
Trans-
port
10
Forestry
130
Agri-
culture
5
5
75
2010
150 90
185
5 5
2030
BAU
70
400
10
40
5
55
Emissions per year1
, Mt CO2e Agriculture
Forestry
Power
Transpor
t
Industr
yOthers
1 Rounded numbers
2 Currently estimated emissions form buildings and waste
t CO2e/capita
1.81.8 3.03.0 1.11.1

13. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITYENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
Adaptation strategy…
Strategy
(EPACC- 20 problems an
d their response measu
res(+responsible lead i
nstitutions) as well as t
he 7 supportive actions
• Enriched iterative cons
ultations
Regional/ Sectoral
Adaptation Plans
• 9 Sectors-submitted
• 9 National Regional
States
• Two City
Administration
• Compilation of
submitted plans
National Climate
Resilient strategy
Preparation
• GGGI/EPA: a
consulting firm
• Strategy Preparation-
Ongoing
26

14. ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
AUTHORITY
20
~10% p.a.
2025
(expected)
131
38%
36%
26%
2015 GTP
target
47
44%
19%
37%
2010
30
46%
13%
42%
Conclusions (Transition due to CRGE)
Source: GoE GTP; team analysis
GDP, USD billions
Population
mln
8080 9191 117117
GDP p.c.
In USD
380380 520520 1,1701,170
▪ Transform current economic
development practices and will
touch most sectors
Diminishing weight of agriculture
from 42% to 26% of GDP
Migration from agriculture jobs to
services and industry
Attainment of middle-income status
before 2025 on Carbon neutral
growth path
▪ Domestic potential to contribute to
the global effort to mitigate climate
change (by reducing 250 Mt CO2e
emissions a year in 2030, 60% less
the BAU)
▪ Per capita Emissions would fall
from 1.8 t CO2e in 2010 to 1.1 in
2030 – a decrease of nearly 60% –
Key transitions-large beneficial
impact
Agriculture
Services
Industry