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Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources:
Technical Luncheon

February 15, 2012



BENCHMARKING
RESOURCE PLAYS
Implications for Exploitation &
Development
Mike Seifert, P. Geol.
Canadian Discovery Ltd.
AGENDA
 Introduction
 What is a Resource Play
 Benchmarking Process
     Western Canada Overview
     Montney
     Slave Point
     Integrated Analysis: Carrot Cr and Rat Creek
WHAT IS A RESOURCE PLAY?
“A 'play' is a family of pools and/or prospects that share a common history
of hydrocarbon generation, migration, reservoir development and trap
configuration.


A RESOURCE PLAY is a special category of
play which implies the use, or potential use,
of advanced drilling and/or completion
technology to make it economic.
Although specific wells may be exceptions, generally speaking a
RESOURCE PLAY is deemed to be historically uneconomic on a regional
basis without the use of advanced technology.”

                                            Ed Fogg, Canadian Discovery Ltd.
RESOURCE PLAY DEF’N

 Requires Extensive Stimulation to
  Produce
 Produces Little In-situ Water
 Does Not Exhibit an Obvious Seal or Trap
 Low Matrix Permeability (< 0.1 mD)

SPEE Monograph 3
       “Guidelines For The Practical Evaluation of
       Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”
WHY BENCHMARK?
Internal Analysis
Competitor Analysis
Technologies and Methodologies
Logistics
Acquisition & Divestitures
Financial Metrics
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
       WESTERN CANADA
         Average Stages Completed / Year
25


20
                                               2006
15                                             2007
                                               2008
10                                             2009
                                               2010
 5                                             2011


 0
     Bakken   Cardium   Horn River   Montney
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
         WESTERN CANADA
                Average Completed Length
2500


2000
                                                    2006
1500                                                2007
                                                    2008
1000                                                2009
                                                    2010
 500                                                2011


   0
       Bakken      Cardium   Horn River   Montney
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
        WESTERN CANADA
               Average Frac Spacing
350

300

250                                             2006
                                                2007
200
                                                2008
150                                             2009
100                                             2010
                                                2011
50

 0
      Bakken   Cardium   Horn River   Montney
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
        WESTERN CANADA
               Average Proppant / Stage (t)
250


200
                                                   2006
150                                                2007
                                                   2008
100                                                2009
                                                   2010
50                                                 2011


 0
      Bakken      Cardium   Horn River   Montney
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
        WESTERN CANADA
1200                                                $1,800
          IP BOE/d (6:1)
                                                    $1,600
1000
          Completion Cost      $1,553               $1,400
          ($K/Stage)
800                                                 $1,200

                                                    $1,000
600
                                                    $800

400                                                 $600
                                           $337
                                                    $400
200       $11       $114
                                                    $200

  0                                                 $0
        Bakken     Cardium   Horn River   Montney
       Average IP (BOE/D) & Completion Cost ($K/Stage)
                      2010 / 2011 Wells
Number of Wells by Resource Play Group
                  6,000
                          Horn River Gas
                          Montney/Doig Gas
                          Montney/Doig Oil                            5,041
                  5,000
                          Deep Basin Gas
                          Slave Point/Swan Hills Oil
                          Glauconitic Hoadley Gas
                                                              3,860

Number of Wells
                  4,000   Cardium Oil
                          Viking Oil
                          Shaunavon Oil
                          Bakken/Torquay Oil
                  3,000
                          Spearfish/Amaranth Oil
                          Emerging Oil
                          Emerging Gas
                  2,000    1,922
                                               1,753



                  1,000




                     0
                           2008                2009           2010    2011
                                                       Year
Completions Investment ($M) by Resource Play Group
                                 8,000
                                                                                                  $7.9 billion
                                          Horn River Gas
                                          Montney/Doig Gas
                                 7,000
                                          Montney/Doig Oil
                                          Deep Basin Gas
                                 6,000    Slave Point/Swan Hills Oil
                                          Glauconitic Hoadley Gas                  $5.5 billion


   Completion Cost (million $)
                                          Cardium Oil
                                 5,000    Viking Oil
                                          Shaunavon Oil
                                          Bakken/Torquay Oil
                                 4,000
                                          Spearfish/Amaranth Oil
                                          Emerging Oil
                                          Emerging Gas
                                 3,000
                                                             $2.5 billion
                                         $2.0 billion
                                 2,000



                                 1,000



                                    0
                                            2008                2009                  2010           2011
                                                                            Year
RESOURCE PLAYS IN
           WESTERN CANADA
Increasing Stages
Increasing Well Length
Decreasing Frac Spacing
Proppant
  Bakken Decreasing
  Montney Increasing
NORTHERN MONTNEY




       Source: CDL EDGE
NORTHERN MONTNEY
                             STAGES COMPLETED
16
14
12
10
 8
 6
 4
 2
 0
01/06/2008   18/12/2008   06/07/2009   22/01/2010   10/08/2010   26/02/2011   14/09/2011   01/04/2012

        PROGRESS                BONAVISTA               CANBRIAN               TALISMAN
NORTHERN MONTNEY
                       COMPLETED LENGTH (m)
2500

2000

1500

1000

 500

   0
  01/06/2008 18/12/2008 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012

       PROGRESS             BONAVISTA            CANBRIAN            TALISMAN
NORTHERN MONTNEY
                    Completion Cost / Stage ($K)
1200

1000

 800

 600

 400

 200

   0
  01/06/2008    18/12/2008   06/07/2009   22/01/2010   10/08/2010   26/02/2011   14/09/2011

               Bonavista       Canbriam           Progress          Talisman
NORTHERN MONTNEY
                                    IP GAS (mcf/d)
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

   0
    01/06/2008   18/12/2008   06/07/2009   22/01/2010   10/08/2010   26/02/2011   14/09/2011   01/04/2012

        PROGRESS                BONAVISTA                CANBRIAN                 TALISMAN
NORTHERN MONTNEY
            6 MO. CAL GAS RATE / STAGE (mcf/d)
1200

1000

 800

 600

 400

 200

   0
   09/09/2008
            18/12/2008
                     28/03/2009
                              06/07/2009
                                       14/10/2009
                                                22/01/2010
                                                         02/05/2010
                                                                  10/08/2010
                                                                           18/11/2010
                                                                                    26/02/2011
                                                                                             06/06/2011

       PROGRESS                BONAVISTA                 CANBRIAN               TALISMAN
NORTHERN MONTNEY
            IP GAS (mcf/d)    6 Mo Cal Gas Rate (mcf/d)
12000                                                       12000

10000                                                       10000

8000                                                        8000

6000                                                        6000

4000                                                        4000

2000                                                        2000

   0                                                        0
        0     50    100    150   200     250    300   350
                   Average Proppant / Stage (t)
NORTHERN MONTNEY
              TOTAL FLUID PUMPED(m3)
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
 5000
    0
        0    50   100    150    200      250     300   350
                  Average Proppant / Stage (t)
NORTHERN MONTNEY
USE OF CLUSTER FRACS

    No
   Yes
North Montney Summary

TALISMAN VS PROGRESS

 Longer Well Lengths
 More Stages / Well
 Greater Cum Production
SLAVE POINT




     Source: CDL
SLAVE POINT
                   STAGES COMPLETED
 35
 30
 25
 20
 15
 10
  5
  0
10/10/2006    22/02/2008   06/07/2009   18/11/2010   01/04/2012
             EVI                  OTTER
             JUDY CR.             ETHEL
             SWAN HILLS           SWAN HILLS SOUTH
SLAVE POINT
                   Completed Length (m)
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
 800
 600
 400
 200
   0
 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012
            EVI                    OTTER
            JUDY CR.               ETHEL
            SWAN HILLS             SWAN HILLS SOUTH
SLAVE POINT
             COMPLETION COST / STAGE ($K)
600

500

400

300

200

100

  0
10/10/2006    22/02/2008   06/07/2009   18/11/2010   01/04/2012
      EVI                               OTTER
      JUDY CR.                          ETHEL
      SWAN HILLS                        SWAN HILLS SOUTH
SLAVE POINT
                           IP OIL (bop/d)
600

500

400

300

200

100

  0
06/07/2009    22/01/2010     10/08/2010     26/02/2011   14/09/2011
             EVI                    OTTER
             JUDY CR.               ETHEL
             SWAN HILLS             SWAN HILLS SOUTH
SLAVE POINT
          OTTER IP (bopd)          EVI IP (bopd)
          OTTER 6 Mo Rate (bopd)   EVI 6 Mo Rate (bopd)
250

200

150

100

50

 0
      0        10      20       30        40       50     60
                      Average Proppant / Stage
SLAVE POINT
            SLAVE POINT OIL RATE BY FIELD
250

200

150

100

50

 0
      OTTER     EVI            JUDY       ETHEL   SWAN SWAN
                                CR                HILLS HILLS S.
      IP OIL (bopd)    6 Mo Rate (bopd)     12 mo Rate (bopd)
SLAVE POINT
             SLAVE POINT OIL CUMS BY FIELD
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
 0
     OTTER     EVI            JUDY   ETHEL   SWAN SWAN
                               CR            HILLS HILLS S.
       6 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo)           12 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo)
       18 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo)
Slave Point Summary

EVI             JUDY CREEK
Proppant        No Proppant
~$125/stage     ~$150/Stage
12 Stages       15 Stages
400 – 500 m     1,000 m

GEOLOGY MATTERS
CARDIUM
Rat Creek / Carrot Cr




                        Source: CDL Cardium Overview Study, 2010
CARDIUM
Rat Creek / Carrot Creek
Detail: Minimum Principal Stress , Pembina Field

                                                        T52




                                                        T46
 R13                                         R7W5M
    Source: Stress Analysis Study, RPCL & BJ, 2005 + Frac Database
CARDIUM
                            Rat Creek / Carrot Creek
                                  Carrot Creek vs. Rat Creek
                   25




                   20
ATTEMPTED STAGES




                   15



                                                                         Carrot Creek
                                                                         Rat Creek
                   10




                    5




                    0
                        0     5      10                   15   20   25
                                          ACTUAL STAGES
CARDIUM
                  Rat Creek / Carrot Creek
                       Well Count vs. Completion Problem Time

                  30


                       24
                  25
                            23


                  20
Number of Wells




                  15                        14
                                                                                 Carrot Creek
                                                                                 Rat Creek
                  10                    9

                                                             6
                                                         5
                   5
                                                                             3
                                                                         1
                   0
                        <10%           10-30%           30-50%           >50%
                                 Estimated Completion Problem Time (%)
CARDIUM
                          Rat Creek / Carrot Creek
                           Initial Production vs. Base Fluid and Energizer
                    250
                          12

                                                               15
                    200
                               14                 12
                                                                             CARROT CREEK - N2
AVERAGE IP (BOPD)




                    150
                                                          14                 CARROT CREEK -
                                                                             UNENERGIZED
                                        44
                    100                                             2        RAT CREEK - N2
                                    3                                   13

                                                                             RAT CREEK - UNENERGIZED
                    50




                     0
                                Oil          Slickwater        Water
                                             BASE FLUID
Cardium Horizontal
3-Month Initial Production Rate Map




                 Base map generated with ArcMap ™
Carrot Creek vs. Rat Creek
Hz Wells - type Prod decline curves




                      Data Source IHS Energy
Average IP Rate by Wellbore
        Orientation
              46 - Number of Wells




                         Data Source IHS Energy
CARDIUM
             Rat Creek / Carrot Creek
Rat Creek Higher Stress
Operational Failures
Base Fluids & Energizers




CDD Article “Stressed Out in the Cardium”
Acknowledgments:


•   Meridee Fockler, P.Geol.    •   Daniel LaPlante
•   Ally Masoud                 •   Aliyyah Mohamed, B.A.
•   Matt Baird                  •   Neil Watson, P.Geol.
•   Heather McCrank, MBA, CMA   •   Kevin Rakhit, B. Sc.
                                •   Razan Das, E.I.T.




• Peter Singbeil, P. Eng.       • John Siferd, R.E.T.
• Don Waters, P.Eng.            • Andrea Nawolsky, C.E.T.
                                • Jean Beriault, P.Eng.

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Benchmarking Resource Plays

  • 1. Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources: Technical Luncheon February 15, 2012 BENCHMARKING RESOURCE PLAYS Implications for Exploitation & Development Mike Seifert, P. Geol. Canadian Discovery Ltd.
  • 2. AGENDA  Introduction  What is a Resource Play  Benchmarking Process  Western Canada Overview  Montney  Slave Point  Integrated Analysis: Carrot Cr and Rat Creek
  • 3. WHAT IS A RESOURCE PLAY? “A 'play' is a family of pools and/or prospects that share a common history of hydrocarbon generation, migration, reservoir development and trap configuration. A RESOURCE PLAY is a special category of play which implies the use, or potential use, of advanced drilling and/or completion technology to make it economic. Although specific wells may be exceptions, generally speaking a RESOURCE PLAY is deemed to be historically uneconomic on a regional basis without the use of advanced technology.” Ed Fogg, Canadian Discovery Ltd.
  • 4. RESOURCE PLAY DEF’N  Requires Extensive Stimulation to Produce  Produces Little In-situ Water  Does Not Exhibit an Obvious Seal or Trap  Low Matrix Permeability (< 0.1 mD) SPEE Monograph 3 “Guidelines For The Practical Evaluation of Undeveloped Reserves in Resource Plays”
  • 5. WHY BENCHMARK? Internal Analysis Competitor Analysis Technologies and Methodologies Logistics Acquisition & Divestitures Financial Metrics
  • 6. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA Average Stages Completed / Year 25 20 2006 15 2007 2008 10 2009 2010 5 2011 0 Bakken Cardium Horn River Montney
  • 7. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA Average Completed Length 2500 2000 2006 1500 2007 2008 1000 2009 2010 500 2011 0 Bakken Cardium Horn River Montney
  • 8. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA Average Frac Spacing 350 300 250 2006 2007 200 2008 150 2009 100 2010 2011 50 0 Bakken Cardium Horn River Montney
  • 9. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA Average Proppant / Stage (t) 250 200 2006 150 2007 2008 100 2009 2010 50 2011 0 Bakken Cardium Horn River Montney
  • 10. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA 1200 $1,800 IP BOE/d (6:1) $1,600 1000 Completion Cost $1,553 $1,400 ($K/Stage) 800 $1,200 $1,000 600 $800 400 $600 $337 $400 200 $11 $114 $200 0 $0 Bakken Cardium Horn River Montney Average IP (BOE/D) & Completion Cost ($K/Stage) 2010 / 2011 Wells
  • 11. Number of Wells by Resource Play Group 6,000 Horn River Gas Montney/Doig Gas Montney/Doig Oil 5,041 5,000 Deep Basin Gas Slave Point/Swan Hills Oil Glauconitic Hoadley Gas 3,860 Number of Wells 4,000 Cardium Oil Viking Oil Shaunavon Oil Bakken/Torquay Oil 3,000 Spearfish/Amaranth Oil Emerging Oil Emerging Gas 2,000 1,922 1,753 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
  • 12. Completions Investment ($M) by Resource Play Group 8,000 $7.9 billion Horn River Gas Montney/Doig Gas 7,000 Montney/Doig Oil Deep Basin Gas 6,000 Slave Point/Swan Hills Oil Glauconitic Hoadley Gas $5.5 billion Completion Cost (million $) Cardium Oil 5,000 Viking Oil Shaunavon Oil Bakken/Torquay Oil 4,000 Spearfish/Amaranth Oil Emerging Oil Emerging Gas 3,000 $2.5 billion $2.0 billion 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year
  • 13. RESOURCE PLAYS IN WESTERN CANADA Increasing Stages Increasing Well Length Decreasing Frac Spacing Proppant Bakken Decreasing Montney Increasing
  • 14. NORTHERN MONTNEY Source: CDL EDGE
  • 15. NORTHERN MONTNEY STAGES COMPLETED 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 01/06/2008 18/12/2008 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 PROGRESS BONAVISTA CANBRIAN TALISMAN
  • 16. NORTHERN MONTNEY COMPLETED LENGTH (m) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 01/06/2008 18/12/2008 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 PROGRESS BONAVISTA CANBRIAN TALISMAN
  • 17. NORTHERN MONTNEY Completion Cost / Stage ($K) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 01/06/2008 18/12/2008 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 Bonavista Canbriam Progress Talisman
  • 18. NORTHERN MONTNEY IP GAS (mcf/d) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 01/06/2008 18/12/2008 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 PROGRESS BONAVISTA CANBRIAN TALISMAN
  • 19. NORTHERN MONTNEY 6 MO. CAL GAS RATE / STAGE (mcf/d) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 09/09/2008 18/12/2008 28/03/2009 06/07/2009 14/10/2009 22/01/2010 02/05/2010 10/08/2010 18/11/2010 26/02/2011 06/06/2011 PROGRESS BONAVISTA CANBRIAN TALISMAN
  • 20. NORTHERN MONTNEY IP GAS (mcf/d) 6 Mo Cal Gas Rate (mcf/d) 12000 12000 10000 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 4000 2000 2000 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Average Proppant / Stage (t)
  • 21. NORTHERN MONTNEY TOTAL FLUID PUMPED(m3) 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Average Proppant / Stage (t)
  • 22. NORTHERN MONTNEY USE OF CLUSTER FRACS No Yes
  • 23. North Montney Summary TALISMAN VS PROGRESS Longer Well Lengths More Stages / Well Greater Cum Production
  • 24. SLAVE POINT Source: CDL
  • 25. SLAVE POINT STAGES COMPLETED 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 10/10/2006 22/02/2008 06/07/2009 18/11/2010 01/04/2012 EVI OTTER JUDY CR. ETHEL SWAN HILLS SWAN HILLS SOUTH
  • 26. SLAVE POINT Completed Length (m) 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 01/04/2012 EVI OTTER JUDY CR. ETHEL SWAN HILLS SWAN HILLS SOUTH
  • 27. SLAVE POINT COMPLETION COST / STAGE ($K) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10/10/2006 22/02/2008 06/07/2009 18/11/2010 01/04/2012 EVI OTTER JUDY CR. ETHEL SWAN HILLS SWAN HILLS SOUTH
  • 28. SLAVE POINT IP OIL (bop/d) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 06/07/2009 22/01/2010 10/08/2010 26/02/2011 14/09/2011 EVI OTTER JUDY CR. ETHEL SWAN HILLS SWAN HILLS SOUTH
  • 29. SLAVE POINT OTTER IP (bopd) EVI IP (bopd) OTTER 6 Mo Rate (bopd) EVI 6 Mo Rate (bopd) 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Average Proppant / Stage
  • 30. SLAVE POINT SLAVE POINT OIL RATE BY FIELD 250 200 150 100 50 0 OTTER EVI JUDY ETHEL SWAN SWAN CR HILLS HILLS S. IP OIL (bopd) 6 Mo Rate (bopd) 12 mo Rate (bopd)
  • 31. SLAVE POINT SLAVE POINT OIL CUMS BY FIELD 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 OTTER EVI JUDY ETHEL SWAN SWAN CR HILLS HILLS S. 6 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo) 12 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo) 18 Mo. CUM OIL (mbo)
  • 32. Slave Point Summary EVI JUDY CREEK Proppant No Proppant ~$125/stage ~$150/Stage 12 Stages 15 Stages 400 – 500 m 1,000 m GEOLOGY MATTERS
  • 33. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Cr Source: CDL Cardium Overview Study, 2010
  • 34. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Creek Detail: Minimum Principal Stress , Pembina Field T52 T46 R13 R7W5M Source: Stress Analysis Study, RPCL & BJ, 2005 + Frac Database
  • 35. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Creek Carrot Creek vs. Rat Creek 25 20 ATTEMPTED STAGES 15 Carrot Creek Rat Creek 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 ACTUAL STAGES
  • 36. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Creek Well Count vs. Completion Problem Time 30 24 25 23 20 Number of Wells 15 14 Carrot Creek Rat Creek 10 9 6 5 5 3 1 0 <10% 10-30% 30-50% >50% Estimated Completion Problem Time (%)
  • 37. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Creek Initial Production vs. Base Fluid and Energizer 250 12 15 200 14 12 CARROT CREEK - N2 AVERAGE IP (BOPD) 150 14 CARROT CREEK - UNENERGIZED 44 100 2 RAT CREEK - N2 3 13 RAT CREEK - UNENERGIZED 50 0 Oil Slickwater Water BASE FLUID
  • 38. Cardium Horizontal 3-Month Initial Production Rate Map Base map generated with ArcMap ™
  • 39. Carrot Creek vs. Rat Creek Hz Wells - type Prod decline curves Data Source IHS Energy
  • 40. Average IP Rate by Wellbore Orientation 46 - Number of Wells Data Source IHS Energy
  • 41. CARDIUM Rat Creek / Carrot Creek Rat Creek Higher Stress Operational Failures Base Fluids & Energizers CDD Article “Stressed Out in the Cardium”
  • 42. Acknowledgments: • Meridee Fockler, P.Geol. • Daniel LaPlante • Ally Masoud • Aliyyah Mohamed, B.A. • Matt Baird • Neil Watson, P.Geol. • Heather McCrank, MBA, CMA • Kevin Rakhit, B. Sc. • Razan Das, E.I.T. • Peter Singbeil, P. Eng. • John Siferd, R.E.T. • Don Waters, P.Eng. • Andrea Nawolsky, C.E.T. • Jean Beriault, P.Eng.