This document discusses a project to assist Riverina irrigation communities in Australia plan for a future with less water availability. It provides an overview of the project's three stages: 1) assessing the current socioeconomic status and recent changes, 2) identifying risks and opportunities in potential future scenarios given key trends like drought, and 3) planning for sustainable communities and economy. Key trends discussed include the recent "Big Dry" period with low rainfall and water allocations, resulting in declines in agricultural production, population, and employment in the region. Drivers of future change are identified at the international, state, and local levels.
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What future for Riverina irrigation communities - Craig Clifton
1. What future for Riverina irrigation
communities?
Craig Clifton, Dhakshy Sooriyakumaran, Nick Schofield
& Stephen Joyce
2. Project overview
Objective: Assist Riverina irrigation communities plan for a
future with less water
Three stages:
1. Current socio-economic
status of region &
influence of recent change
2. Assess risks and
opportunities associated
with the future
3. Plan for sustainable
communities and economy
3. Project overview
Stage 2: What may the future hold for Riverina irrigation
communities?
Three stages:
1. Current socio-economic • Identify key trends & drivers
status of region & of change
influence of recent change • Develop scenarios to
2. Assess risks and describe how the future
opportunities associated may unfold
with the future • Assess future risks and
3. Plan for sustainable opportunities
communities and economy
4. Riverina: a major Australian
agricultural, food & beverage production
region
Production Processing
Dryland Cereals $355 M $197 M
cropping Rice $121 M
Vegetables $67 M
Fruit $199 M $127 M
Livestock Citrus $75 M
grazing
Wine grapes $110 M $400 M
Livestock
Livestock $210 M
Irrigation Meat $319 M
Total $840 M $1041 M
Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010
Sources: BRS data; SKM 2010
5. The community & economy are highly
dependent on agriculture
Employment Economic value add
Carrathool
Carrathool
Economic value add Carrathool
Economic value add
Employment (#EFT)
Griffith
Griffith
Griffith
Agriculture
Food & beverage manufacturing
Water
Services to agriculture
Other
Sources: ABS data; AEC 2010; SKM, 2010
6. Key trends: the Big Dry
100%
80%
60%
40%
2001-2003 2004-2006
20%
0%
2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09
Lachlan River HS Lachlan River GS
Murrumbidgee River HS Murrumbidgee River GS
2007-2009
Rainfall anomaly Irrigation allocations
Sources: BoM data, NSW Office of Water data; SKM 2010
7. Key trends: agriculture & food production
$1,000 Carathool
Change in value of production 2005-06
Millions
$350
to 2009-10 due to drought
Value of agricultural commodities
$300
$800
$250
$200
Industry Change in value
$600 $150
of output ($M)
$100 Sheep -$10.4
$400
$50 Grains -$112.6
$- Beef cattle -$5.9
2000-01 2005-06
Other agriculture +$0.1
$200
Griffith Services to agriculture +$3.5
Griffith $350
Milling products & cereal -$98.3
$- $300
2000-01 2005-06
foods
$250
Intensive animal
$200
Citrus, grapes & other fruit No change
Dryland
$150
Wine & other beverages No change
Nurseries
Irrig-fruit
$100 Total -$223.6
Irrig-vegetables $50
Irrig-crops $-
2000-01 2005-06
2005-06
Sources: ABS data, AEC 2010; SKM 2010
8. Key trends: population & employment
Population The Big Dry Employment
50,000
Agriculture
Region 2006
Manufacturing
40,000
Retail trade
2001 Health services
30,000
Education
Griffith
Construction
1996
20,000 All others
8,000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
6,000 Narrandera Employment losses 2005-06 to 2009-10
• Agriculture – 588 jobs
4,000 Carrathool • Other sectors (direct/indirect) – 1231
jobs
2,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
9. Drivers of change
International-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
Climate: Water: Confidence in region’s
• Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future
• Human-induced change storage volumes Entrepreneurial spirit –
Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership
• Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure
Technological &
fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public
management innovation
• Currency exchange rates perceptions
• Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries
inputs Population growth in Regional development
• Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment
Global population growth • Congestion Retention & attraction of
Global food supply & • Housing affordability population
security Strength of Australian
Technology: mining sector
• ICT Interest rates
• Food production Government investment
• Energy into regions
ICT infrastructure &
services
10. Drivers of change
International-global scale State-MDB-national scale Local-regional scale
Climate: Water: Confidence in region’s
• Natural variability • Catchment inflows & future
• Human-induced change storage volumes Entrepreneurial spirit –
Health of global economy • Planning & management community leadership
• Demand & price for food, • Infrastructure
Technological &
fibre & minerals • Policy, politics & public
management innovation
• Currency exchange rates perceptions
• Cost of key agricultural • Market operation in key industries
inputs Population growth in Regional development
• Trade freedom/distortion major cities investment
Global population growth • Congestion Retention & attraction of
Global food supply & • Housing affordability population
security Strength of Australian
Technology: mining sector
• ICT Interest rates
• Food production Government investment
• Energy into regions
ICT infrastructure &
services
11. What might the future hold?
Some alternative futures
Better water
outcomes
2010 2030
Scenarios incorporate:
• Critical uncertainties – climate &
water policy
• Other regional-global scale Worse water
change drivers outcomes
• Shocks
Plausibility tested with stakeholders Scenarios preceded Guide to MDBP
12. Risks and opportunities
Key risks Key opportunities
• A quick step back into Big Dry – • Adapted, more efficient agriculture
like conditions • Increase regional value add to
• Run-away water trade from agriculture
region • Biofuels & solar energy
• MDBP implements large • Education, training & health care
reduction in SDL • Affordability options for new
Potential implications: industries and residents
• Tourism
• Rapid population decline
• Workforce contraction
Options mostly not unique to Riverina
• Divestment by businesses
region
• Smaller local governments
become unviable
13. Conclusions:
What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
• The region will remain highly dependent on agriculture,
including irrigated agriculture
• High reliability Murrumbidgee high security water &
groundwater critical to region’s future
• The region will continue to track agriculture’s fortunes and
misfortunes
• Griffith will continue to growth while the smaller towns &
LGAs continue to decline
• The region will continue to invest in economic diversification -
with limited success particularly away from Griffith
& Leeton
14. What future for Riverina irrigation communities?
Some critical uncertainties:
• Murray-Darling Basin Plan
• Future climate – next few years & long-term
• The demand & price for the region’s agricultural & food
products
• Confidence in the region’s future
• Community leadership & entrepreneurial spirit
A future with less water is not where the Riverina irrigation
communities want to be