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Swedbank’s second quarter 2012 results
Michael Wolf, CEO
Göran Bronner, CFO
Håkan Berg, CRO
Solid performance with unchanged business strategy
• Low growth environment

• Good execution on focus areas

• Competitive position continue to improve

• Mobile banking supports cash smart transformation




                                                      2
Retail

Stable development
SEKm                  Q2 11   Q1 12   Q2 12   Q/Q
                                                     • Repricing
Net interest income   3 012   3 407   3 404    -3

Net commissions       1 294   1 261   1 248   - 13
                                                     • Deposit margins pressure
Total income          4 789   5 123   5 138   +15

Total expenses        2 430   2 342   2 345    +3    • Good asset quality
Profit before
                      2 359   2 781   2 793   +12
impairments
Credit impairments       6      24     100    +76



ROE                   30.8    26.5    24.6

C/I ratio             0.51    0.46    0.46




                                                                                  3
Baltic Banking

Structural recovery continued
SEKm                  Q2 11   Q1 12   Q2 12   Q/Q
                                                    • Growth in lending book in euro
Net interest income   1 017    912     870    -42

Net commissions        365     371     378     +7
                                                    • Lower Euribor affected NII
Total income          1 566   1 452   1 430   -22

Total expenses         649     620     588    -32
                                                    • Good underlying activity
Profit before
                       917     832     842    +10
impairments
Credit impairments     -142    -134    -204   -70



ROE                    13.5    14.5    14.8

C/I                    0.41    0.43    0.41




                                                                                       4
Large Corporates & Institutions

Weaker trading activity
SEKm                       Q2 11    Q1 12   Q2 12    Q/Q
                                                            • Continued growth in Large
Net interest income          884     887     825     -62
  - of which LC/FI*          444     652     666     +14
                                                              Corporate NII
Net commissions              334     434     346     - 88

Net gains and losses          20     648     316    -332
                                                            • Lower capital market activity
Total income               1 247    1 980   1 499   - 481
Expenses excl variable
                             685     607     602       -5
staff costs
Variable staff costs          50     106     118     +12
Profit before
                             512    1267     779    - 488
Impairments
Credit impairments           -20       14     54     +40




ROE                         10.2     19.1     9.8

C/I ratio                   0.59     0.36    0.48




* Large Corporates/Financial Institutions
                                                                                              5
Cost development

Cost reduction according to plan
• Target to reduce costs by SEK 1bn 2012

• Staff cost -173m and consultancy costs -172m year on year




Cost trend (SEKm)               H1 2011   H1 2012   YTD

Total expenses                   9 000     8 664    -336
Variable staff costs              275       397     + 122

Compensation to Savings Banks     271       311     +40

Underlying cost                  8 454     7 956    -498




                                                              6
Capital position

Strong capitalisation – continued focus
                         RWA development
SEKbn
505
                                                                               • Core Tier 1 ratio of 16.6 percent

                                                                               • RWA down SEK 9bn in quarter
500
                                                                                  - Volume increases
                 +7.4                                                             - Update SME portfolio
                          -10.9                                                   - Positive rating migration Sweden/Baltics
        494.6
495                                                                               - Increased risk European banking system
                                                                                  - Market risk reduced
                                                                                  - Sale of ukrainian portfolio
490                                  -2.8


                                                 -2.9
                                                                     485.4
485                                                         0.0




480
      2012 Q1   Volume    Rating Other credit   Market   Operational 2012 Q2
                 (EAD)   migration  risk         risk       risk



                                                                                                                               7
Liquidity and funding

Continued conservative stance
•      Continued high issuance of long-term debt, SEK 41bn during Q2, total SEK 97bn during H1

•      SEK 17bn in maturities for the remainder of 2012

•      Funding plan of around SEK 120bn for full year

•      Awaiting new regulatory landscape of capital and funding


                 Long-term debt issued                                   SEKm
                                                                                    Outstanding short-term debt
SEKm
30 000                                                                   60 000


25 000                                                                   50 000


20 000                                                                   40 000
                                                                 Q1 12                                                                  Q1 12
15 000                                                           Q2 12   30 000
                                                                                                                                        Q2 12


10 000                                                                   20 000


    5 000                                                                10 000


       0                                                                     0
            Domestic   Euro CB   USD CB   Other CB     Senior                     Domestic   ECP/CD   USCP   Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD
              CB                 (144A)              unsecured                      CP



                                                                                                                                                8
Group results
Solid quarter
SEKm                     Q1 12   Q2 12   Q/Q     YTD
                                                         • Stable NII
Net interest income      5 208   5 252   +44    10 460
                                                                - Repricing lending
Net commissions          2 405   2 346    -59    4 751
                                                                - Lower funding cost
Net gains and losses       759     455   -304    1 214
                                                                - Shrinking deposit margins
Other income               809     844   +35     1 653
Total income             9 181   8 897   -284   18 078
                                                         • Lower trading activity
Total expenses           4 413   4 251   -162    8 664
Profit before
impairments
                         4 768   4 646   -122    9 414   • Cost management on track
Credit impairments         172     300   +128     472
                                                         • Credit impairments exit cost
Impairment of tangible
assets
                            40     125   +85      165      Ukraine
Profit for the period    3 425   3 162   -263    6 587
                                                         • Capital position further
                                                           strengthened
ROE                       14.0    13.0           13.5

C/I                       0.48    0.48           0.48

CT1 ratio (Basel 2)       15.9    16.6           16.6




                                                                                              9
Risk highlights

Stable asset quality
Credit impairments
                      Q1     Q2    • Still high credit quality in Sweden
(SEKm)
Retail                24    100    • Further improvements in Baltics
LC&I                  14     54        – Provision releases for Latvian
                                         mortgages
Baltic Banking       -134   -204
  Estonia             -78    -25   • Exit costs Ukrainian retail portfolio
  Latvia              -21   -197       – Sale of performing portfolio

  Lithuania           -35    18
Group Functions &
                     268    350
Other
  Russia              -65    24
  Ukraine            333    325
Swedbank Group       172    300




                                                                             10
ICAAP
 2012 ICAAP Scenario
 – Deep recession without recovery

               Triggers                           Outcome
    • Europe enters into deep            • Sharp GDP drop with no
      recession                            recovery (10-15% from 2011
                                           level)
    • Limited possibilities for fiscal
      stimulus                           • Severe drop in house prices
    • European bank runs                   (25-37% from 2011 level)
    • Credit contraction                 • Depreciated EUR and
                                           appreciated SEK
    • Closed funding markets
                                         • Devaluation in Latvia and
                                           Lithuania




                                                                         11
ICAAP

High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario
• Revenue decrease 31 percent

• Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year

• Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp

• Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely
  stressed scenario in new regulatory environment




                                                                    12
Credit portfolio – Retail

Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency

                     Total portfolio SEK 227bn   Segments excl. Swedbank          Volume   Secured
                                                 Mortgage and Swedbank Finance   (SEKbn)     (%)
                                                 Agriculture                       6.3       81
                                                 Manufacturing                    10.8       84
 Swedbank Mortgage
 AB                                              Public sector and utilities       4.8       90
                                           90
 Leasing (Swedbank                               Construction                      4.6       86
                           113
 Finance AB)
                                                 Retail                            9.2       88
 Other
                                      24         Transportation                    2.0       82
                                                 Shipping                          0.2       94
                                                 Hotels and restaurants            3.4       89
                                                 Information & communication       0.9       65
                                                 Finance and insurance             2.6       77
                                                 Property management              54.6       90
                                                 Professional service              6.6       75
                                                 Other                             7.0       70
                                                 Total                           113.0       86


                                                                                                     13
Q&A
Appendix




           15
Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months)
  %
  6




  5


                                                                                                                    Net margin
  4



                                                                                                                   The gross margin should cover:
  3                                                                                                                Cost of liquidity ~0.3%
                                                                                                                   Administrative costs ~0.3%
                                                                                                                   Credit impairments ~ 0.03%
  2                                                                                                                Tax (26.3% on profit before tax)


  1




  0
   2003        2004      2005      2006        2007       2008          2009         2010        2011       2012


          Gross margin   Swedbank's funding cost      Stibor 3 months          Swedish Riksbanks reporate




                                                                                                                                                  16
Large Corporates & Institutions

Weaker trading activity in Q2
SEKm                          Q2 11     Q3 11    Q4 11*     Q1 12     Q2 12

Net interest income             884       756       845       887       825
 of which LC & FI**             444       519       563       652       666
 of which Markets               440       237       282       235       159
Commission income               334       317       269       434       346
 of which LC & FI* *            221       241       261       278       278
 of which Markets               113        76         6       156           68
Total income LC&I             1 247     1 184    1 328      1 980     1 499
 of which LC & FI**             682       770       832       946       947
 of which Markets               565       414       496     1 034       552
Total expenses, excl
                                685       659       818       607       602
variable pay
Variable staff costs             50          6       13       106       118
Profit before
                                512       519       497     1 267       779
impairments
 of which LC & FI**             481       567       574       735       740
 of which Markets                31        -48      -77       532           39
Total impairments               -20        -68       21        14           58


C/I ratio                      0.59      0.56      0.63      0.36       0.48

* Excluding Lehman one-off ,**Large corporates and Financial institutions

                                                                                 17
Cost management
 Cost target 2012
• Target to reduce underlying costs by SEK 1bn 2012

SEKbn
  20
              18.4
  18                                                                                          17.1
                                  - 0.4                                                                          16.1
  16                                                    - 0.4               - 0.5

  14

  12

  10

  8

  6

  4

  2

  0
       Total expenses 2011 Variable staf f costs Restructuring costs   Compensation to   Underlying costs   Cost target 2012
        (af ter restatements)                                           Savings Banks         2011



                                                                                                                               18
Liquidity and funding

Core balance sheet structure
                     Assets                                                            Liabilities
SEKbn                                                            SEKbn
2 000                                                            2 000

1 800                                    Interbank loans         1 800                                           Amounts owed to credit
                                         and repos                                                               institutions

1 600                                                            1 600
                                         Other assets*                                                           Other liabilities**
1 400                                                            1 400
                                                                                                                 Government guaranteed debt
1 200                                                            1 200                                           Senior
                                         Estonia
                                         CEE lending
1 000                                    Other corporate         1 000                                          Covered
                                         lending, Sweden &                                                      bonds
                                         other Nordic coun.
 800                                                              800
                                        Other private, Sweden

 600                                                              600

                                         Swedish                                                                Deposits
 400                                     mortgage loans           400


 200                                                              200
                                                                                                                 Suppl. cap
                                                                                                                 Core T1
    0                                                               0
                      Q2 2012                                                               Q2 2012
  *Other assets: derivatives, C-bank holdings interest bearing           **Other liabilities: derivatives, short-term funding and other financial liabilities
  securities and other financial assets
Source: Swedbank, 30 June 2012
                                                                                                                                                                19
Liquidity and funding

Conservative liquidity levels
• Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management

• More than 12 months pre-funded


SEKbn


350                                                                          350

300                                                                          300
                                                               Additional pledgeable
250                                                            and/or liquid assets
                                                                          250             Next 12-month term
                                                                                         funding maturities
200                                                                        200 1
                                                               Liquidity reserve,
                                                               securities
                                                                             150         CP / CDs and net
150
                                                                                1
                                                               Liquidity reserve,        interbank funding,
                                                                           100
                                                               central bank deposits,    SEKm
100
                                                               SEKm
 50                                                                            50
    0                                                                                0

Source: Swedbank 30 June 2012   1   As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association

                                                                                                              20
Liquidity and funding
Long-term funding maturity profile
• FY 2012 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn
        − of which SEK 17bn for the remainder of 2012




       Long-term funding maturity profile
SEKbn
200                                                              Government
                                                                 guaranteed debt
                                                                 Senior unsecured
150
                                                                 debt
                                                                 Covered bonds

100



  50



   0
         2012      2013          2014        2015       2016        2017       2018-


Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012     1   Maturing debt from 2018 and beyond is calculated as maturing in 2018

                                                                                                              21
Liquidity and funding
Remaining government guaranteed debt
• Exited the programme on 30 April 2010
• No issuance under the programme since summer 2009
• Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 36bn maturing during 2013 and 2014

          Maturity profile as per Q2 2012
SEKbn
40




                                                   JPY
                                                   CHF
20
                                                   USD
                                                   SEK
                                                   EUR




 0
                     2013                   2014
Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012

                                                                         22
Liquidity and funding

             Senior unsecured debt strategy
             •              Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure

             •              Secure OC level

             •              Affected by the bank’s liquidity needs
                                House price sensitivity of the cover pool
                         35%

                         30%

                         25%
                                                                     OC
                         20%

                         15%
Over-collateralisation




                         10%

                          5%

                          0%

                         -5%

                         -10%

                         -15%

                         -20%
                                 0%   5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
                                      House price drop
                Source: Swedbank, 30 June, 2012, Nominal amounts
                                                                                    23
Liquidity and funding

Liquidity reserve
According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association



                                                                                                                    SEKm
Cash and holdings in central banks                                                                              132 028
Deposits in other banks available overnight                                                                         270
Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks                   22 265
Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities
Covered bonds                                                                                                     56 577
    - Issued by other institutions                                                                                56 577
    - Own issued
Securities issued by non-financial corporates
Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds)                                                    2 846
Other

Total1                                                                                                          214 382


Additional liquid assets, Group2                                                                                  67 474




1   95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q2 2012 are rated AAA
2 88% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except
from that they are held outside the Treasury department.

                                                                                                                            24
Swedish housing and mortgage market
Swedish mortgage market
•    No securitization (on balance sheet)

•    No sub-prime market

•    No 3rd party origination

•    No buy-to-let market

•    70% home ownership1

•    Rental market is regulated
      – First hand contracts difficult to obtain
      – Rents need to be negotiated with the Swedish Union of Tenants

•    Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se)
      – Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc

•    Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest
     rate

•    Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse)

•    Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system
1 Source:   Boverket, 2011

                                                                                                            25
Swedish housing and mortgage market

Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development
             Single-family homes1          Tenant-owner rights2             Combined3
                            12M Δ                        12M Δ                 12M Δ


  Jul/11                             0%                          6%                   2%

 Aug/11                             -2%                          3%                  -1%

 Sep/11                             -3%                          1%                  -2%

 Oct/11                             -4%                         -1%                  -3%

 Nov/11                             -5%                         -4%                  -5%

 Dec/11                             -7%                         -4%                  -6%

 Jan/12                             -4%                         -2%                  -4%

 Feb/12                             -4%                         -1%                  -3%

 Mar/12                             -4%                          1%                  -3%

 Apr/12                             -2%                          2%                  -1%

 May/12                             -2%                          3%                  -1%

 Jun/12                             -1%                          4%                   0%

Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE

                                                                                                                 26
Baltic real estate prices
Real estate prices – Baltic countries
                                                                         Tallinn                                                                                                                                           Riga
  1800                                                                                                                                             1 800
  1600                                                                                                                                             1 600
  1400                                                                                                                                             1 400
  1200                                                                                                                                             1 200
  1000                                                                                                                                             1 000
   800                                                                                                                                              800
   600                                                                                                                                              600
   400                                                                                                                                              400
   200                                                                                                                                              200
     0                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                      Jan-10




                                                                                                                        Jan-11




                                                                                                                                          Jan-12
         Jan-05




                           Jan-06




                                             Jan-07




                                                                Jan-08




                                                                                   Jan-09

                                                                                             Jul-09




                                                                                                               Jul-10




                                                                                                                                 Jul-11
                  Jul-05




                                    Jul-06




                                                       Jul-07




                                                                          Jul-08




                                                                                                                                                           Jan-05



                                                                                                                                                                              Jan-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jan-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Jan-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Jan-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jan-11



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-12
                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-05



                                                                                                                                                                                       Jul-06



                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-08



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul-09



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jul-10



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul-11
 Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board
                            Nr.of deals                                                     EUR/m2                                                                  Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals                                             EUR/m2


                                                                         Vilnius
 1 800
 1 600
 1 400
 1 200
 1 000
  800
  600
  400
  200
    0
         Jan-05



                           Jan-06



                                             Jan-07



                                                                Jan-08



                                                                                   Jan-09



                                                                                                      Jan-10



                                                                                                                        Jan-11



                                                                                                                                          Jan-12
                  Jul-05



                                    Jul-06



                                                       Jul-07



                                                                          Jul-08



                                                                                             Jul-09



                                                                                                               Jul-10



                                                                                                                                 Jul-11




                                                      Nr.of deals                           EUR/m2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   27
Asset quality

    Impaired loans decreasing
    • Decreased SEK 1.7bn

    • Continued progress in corporate loan restructuring

SEK bn
      45            2.4
           40.3
     40

     35                                                                                            Share of
                           - 4.1   - 3.9                                                           impaired
     30                                    - 3.0                                                   loans, gross
                                                   - 1.1
                                                           -1.9
     25
                                                                   -3.9
                                                                                   20.4
     20                                                                    -2.7                    Ukraine 75%
                                                                                   - 1.7    4.9
                                                                                                   Russia 11%
     15                                                                                     0.6
                                                                                            41     Lithuania 12%
     10
                                                                                                   Latvia 17%
                                                                                            5.9
      5                                                                                     2.8    Estonia 5%
                                                                                            0.3    LC&I 0.12%
                                                                                            1.8    Retail 0.19%
      0
           Q1 10   Q2 10   Q3 10   Q4 10   Q1 11   Q2 11   Q3 11   Q4 11   Q1 12   Q2 12   Q2 12



                                                                                                                   28
-80
                                        -60
                                              -40
                                                    -20
                                                          0




                           -100
                                                              20
                                                                   EURm
                   Q2 11
                   Q3 11
                   Q4 11
                                                                                                                     Asset quality




     Estonia
                   Q1 12
                   Q2 12




                   Q2 11
                   Q3 11




     Latvia
                   Q4 11
                   Q1 12
                   Q2 12




                   Q2 11
                   Q3 11




       Lithuania
                   Q4 11
                   Q1 12
                   Q2 12




                   Q2 11
                   Q3 11
       Ukraine




                   Q4 11
                                                                          Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q




                   Q1 12
                   Q2 12




                   Q2 11
                   Q3 11
                   Q4 11
       Russia




                   Q1 12
                   Q2 12
29
Asset quality

Provisions – well provided for



 SEKm
 30 000


 25 000
                                                                                              Provision ratios, %   Q2 12
                                                                   65.0%            63.7%     Retail                  79
 20 000        60.0%              59.8%                 61.5%

              2 436                                                                           LC&I                   155
                                  2 409
 15 000      15 952                                                                           Baltic Banking          56
                                  14 782                2 435
                                                                   2 478
                                                       12 821                       2 040     Russia                  60
 10 000                                                            11 915
                                                                                   10 951
                                                                                              Ukraine                 74
                                                                                              Group                   64
  5 000


     0
             Q2 11                Q3 11                 Q4 11      Q1 12            Q2 12
          Individual provisions            Portf olio provisions            Provision ratio




                                                                                                                            30
Asset quality

Credit impairments by business area, SEKm

                                                  300



                                       172




                           -174
    -324
              -441




    Q2 11     Q3 11        Q4 11       Q1 12     Q2 12


    Retail   LC&I     Baltic Banking   Other (Russia/Ukraine)


                                                                31
Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions

Shipping and offshore + private equity
•       Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector SEK                Shipping and Offshore
        25.5bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 5.5bn                                      Tanker
                                                                                              24%
         – Portfolio duration 4-5y
         – Average fleet age 7y
         – Other represents ro/ro (8%), container (4%), dry bulk    Offshore
                                                                      58%
                                                                                               Other
            (4%), cruise (1%)                                                                  18%

         – Strong employment profiles

                                                                        Private equity portfolio
                                                                   Industrial
    •     Private equity related exposure was SEK 18.6bn             31%                     Healthcare
                                                                                               36%
           – Nordic related LBOs
           – >99% senior lending
           – Largest sectors are healthcare (32%),
              industrial (27%) and service (19%)
                                                                                Other
                                                                                33%




                                                                                                          32
Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions
Shipping and offshore portfolio – exposure mainly in USD (79%),
minor exposures in riskier segments
  Shipping and offshore portfolio by currency (in USDm)      Shipping and offshore portfolio by subsegment




                        SEK JPY                                                                Cruise
                        0% 1%                                                                   1%
                                                                      Container
                                                                        5%              RORO
                    NOK                                                                  8%
                    13%                                            Dry bulk
                                                                     4%                                   Drilling &
                                                                                                         exploration
                                                                                                            22%
            EUR
            7%                                            Gas (LNG/LPG)
                                                                4%

                                                                          Crude oil
                                                                            4%                                    Oil service
                                                                                                                      9%


                                                                            Product
                                                                             14%
                                                                                                             Supply
                                        USD                                                                   13%
                                        79%                                              Floating
                                                                                        production
                                                                             Chemical      10%
                                                                               2%
                                                                                                  Accommodation
                                                                                                       4%



                                                                                                                                33
Credit portfolio – Agriculture retail


 •   Segmentation Definitions
      –   Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that derive
          their main income from agricultural activities
                                                                    Private:
      –   Private Investments: Private individuals who own         Residential
          tagricultural properties for living or investment          20%
          purposes


                                                                                           Agriculture
 •   Lending exposure to the agriculture Industry                                             46%
      –   Approx SEK 62bn per Q2 2012
      –   Corporate agriculture: (58%)                        Private:
            • Agriculture 46%                                 Forestry
                                                               22%
            • Forestry 12%
      –   Private investments (42%)
            • Residents: 20%                                                     Foresty
            • Forestry: 22%                                                       12%




                                                                                                   34
ICAAP
      2012 ICAAP dcenario
      – Deep recession without recovery
105                       GDP - Index                              105                      Real Estate prices - index


100                                                                 95

 95                                                                 85

 90                                                                 75

 85                                                                 65

 80                                                                 55
       2011   2012        2013       2014      2015     2016             2011    2012       2013       2014       2015       2016
          Sweden       Estonia        Latvia    Lithuania                   Sweden        Estonia       Latvia       Lithuania
3.0%                  Interest rates – 3m                          14                         FX scenario

2.5%                                                               12
                                                                   10
2.0%
                                                                    8
1.5%                                                                6
1.0%                                                                4
                                                                    2
0.5%
                                                                    0
0.0%                                                                     2011    2012       2013       2014       2015       2016
       2011    2012       2013        2014     2015         2016
                        Euribor       Stibor                                    USD/SEK         EUR/SEK          GBP/SEK

                                                                                                                                    35
ICAAP
  2012 ICAAP – Main scenario results
                                         SEK bn           Net Interest Income
 • NII decreases by 39% throughout the     30
                                                  20.7
   scenario                                20

                                           10                                             12.6

                                             0
                                                  2011   2012     2013     2014    2015   2016
 • Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn
                                                         Credit impairments
   over the scenario period              SEK bn
                                            30                     23.4
                                            20
                                            10
                                              0
                                                  2011   2012     2013      2014   2015   2016
                                           -10
 • RWA decreases due to significant      SEKbn           RWA incl. reg effects
   credit impairments and deleveraging     700
                                           600
                                           500                                            414
                                           400
                                           300
                                                  2011   2012     2013      2014   2015   2016


                                                                                                 36
ICAAP


   2012 ICAAP – Income statement

                                                                                            Total
Income statement (SEKbn)                   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015   2016
                                                                                      2012 - 2016
Total net interest income                  20.7   19.5   16.7    14.2   13.0   12.6         75.9
Total income                               34.7   31.8   34.0    25.4   24.3   24.1        139.6
Total expenses                             20.9   17.6   18.7    18.0   18.0   17.8         90.1
Profit before credit losses                13.8   14.2   15.3     7.4    6.3    6.2         49.5
Credit losses                              -1.8    8.2   23.4    17.4    9.3    5.4         63.6
Operating profit                           15.5    6.1   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.9        -14.1
     Appropriations                         0.0    0.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0          0.0
     Tax                                    3.7    1.6    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.2          1.8
Profit for the year                        11.8    4.5   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.6        -16.0
     Minority interest                      0.3    0.1    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.0          0.1
Profit for the year attr to shareholders   11.5    4.4   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.6        -16.1
     Dividend                               5.8    2.2    0.0     0.0    0.0    0.3          2.5
Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend      5.7    2.2   -8.1   -10.0   -3.0    0.3        -18.6




                                                                                                    37
ICAAP
    2012 ICAAP – Credit impairments
                                         EAD 2011                                                                       Acc. loss ratio
 Credit impairments (%)                   (SEKbn)        2012          2013          2014          2015          2016
                                                                                                                           2012 - 2016
 Total                                     1,384.4        0.6           1.8           1.5           0.9           0.5              4.6
 of which LC & I                             309.8        0.5           2.3           2.0           0.8           0.6              5.4
          Retail                             950.8        0.3           1.2           1.0           0.7           0.3              3.2
          Estonia                             52.5        1.2           2.5           2.2           1.8           1.7              6.6
          Latvia                              30.6        2.7           6.1           5.6           4.4           4.6             15.0
          Lithuania                           31.1        2.4           4.1           3.0           2.4           2.2              9.5
          Russia & Ukraine                     9.6        5.2          20.9          10.5           3.7           1.6             41.9

The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn.
Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments
  Credit impairments LC & I and Retail      EAD 2011                                                                           Acc. loss ratio
                                             (SEKbn)            2012          2013          2014          2015          2016
  (%)                                                                                                                             2012 - 2016
  Agriculture, forestry and fishing               25.8           0.5           1.4           1.3           1.0           0.2               3.7
  Manufacturing                                   39.3           1.0           2.6           2.5           1.2           0.5               6.7
  Public sector and utilities                     11.6           0.6           1.8           2.1           1.3           0.4               5.3
  Construction                                    15.1           1.2           3.4           3.4           1.9           0.4               8.5
  Retail                                          22.8           1.3           4.6           5.4           4.0           2.4              14.0
  Transportation                                   8.6           2.1           8.2           5.7           3.4           1.2              16.1
  Shipping                                        31.2           0.4           8.5           6.2           0.6           0.5              14.4
  Hotels and restaurants                           3.8           2.7           6.3           6.3           3.7           0.7              15.0
  Information and communication                    5.0           0.6           1.7           1.9           1.0           0.5               4.9
  Finance and insurance                           20.4           0.3           0.8           1.2           0.6           0.3               2.8
  Property management                            125.1           0.9           3.9           3.8           2.0           1.0               9.6
  Cooperative housing associations                75.4           0.3           1.1           1.2           0.5           0.1               2.8
  Other corporate lending                         75.5           0.9           1.4           1.2           0.7           0.3               3.9
  Professional services                           14.9           1.0           2.7           3.2           2.1           0.7               8.0
  Bank                                           128.2           0.5           1.3           1.1           0.9           0.8               3.9
  Private                                        657.8           0.1           0.4           0.3           0.3           0.2               1.2
  Total                                        1,260.5           0.4           1.5           1.3           0.7           0.4               3.7

                                                                                                                                                 38
ICAAP
 2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results
 Capital assessment
 RWA & Capital (SEKbn)                                                     2011      2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
 RWA                                                                       492.3     489.5   504.1   433.9   395.2   365.0
 RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight *                                         565.3     552.2   557.1   482.4   442.6   414.4
 RWA inc regulatory effects **                                             588.1     575.0   557.1   482.4   442.6   414.4

 Core Tier 1                                                                77.3      79.7    62.1    52.4    49.5    49.8
 Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects **                                      73.6      76.0    62.1    52.4    49.5    49.8
 Total Capital base                                                         93.2      88.3    70.9    61.5    57.2    55.2

 Capital assessment (%)                                                    2011      2012    2013    2014    2015    2016
 Core Tier 1 ratio                                                          15.7      16.3    12.3    12.1    12.5    13.6
 Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight *                            13.7      14.4    11.1    10.9    11.2    12.0
 Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects **                               12.5      13.2    11.1    10.9    11.2    12.0
 Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight *                         16.5      16.0    12.7    12.7    12.9    13.3

 * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio
 ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights




                                                                                                                             39

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Presentation of Swedbank's second quarter 2012 results

  • 1. Swedbank’s second quarter 2012 results Michael Wolf, CEO Göran Bronner, CFO Håkan Berg, CRO
  • 2. Solid performance with unchanged business strategy • Low growth environment • Good execution on focus areas • Competitive position continue to improve • Mobile banking supports cash smart transformation 2
  • 3. Retail Stable development SEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q • Repricing Net interest income 3 012 3 407 3 404 -3 Net commissions 1 294 1 261 1 248 - 13 • Deposit margins pressure Total income 4 789 5 123 5 138 +15 Total expenses 2 430 2 342 2 345 +3 • Good asset quality Profit before 2 359 2 781 2 793 +12 impairments Credit impairments 6 24 100 +76 ROE 30.8 26.5 24.6 C/I ratio 0.51 0.46 0.46 3
  • 4. Baltic Banking Structural recovery continued SEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q • Growth in lending book in euro Net interest income 1 017 912 870 -42 Net commissions 365 371 378 +7 • Lower Euribor affected NII Total income 1 566 1 452 1 430 -22 Total expenses 649 620 588 -32 • Good underlying activity Profit before 917 832 842 +10 impairments Credit impairments -142 -134 -204 -70 ROE 13.5 14.5 14.8 C/I 0.41 0.43 0.41 4
  • 5. Large Corporates & Institutions Weaker trading activity SEKm Q2 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q • Continued growth in Large Net interest income 884 887 825 -62 - of which LC/FI* 444 652 666 +14 Corporate NII Net commissions 334 434 346 - 88 Net gains and losses 20 648 316 -332 • Lower capital market activity Total income 1 247 1 980 1 499 - 481 Expenses excl variable 685 607 602 -5 staff costs Variable staff costs 50 106 118 +12 Profit before 512 1267 779 - 488 Impairments Credit impairments -20 14 54 +40 ROE 10.2 19.1 9.8 C/I ratio 0.59 0.36 0.48 * Large Corporates/Financial Institutions 5
  • 6. Cost development Cost reduction according to plan • Target to reduce costs by SEK 1bn 2012 • Staff cost -173m and consultancy costs -172m year on year Cost trend (SEKm) H1 2011 H1 2012 YTD Total expenses 9 000 8 664 -336 Variable staff costs 275 397 + 122 Compensation to Savings Banks 271 311 +40 Underlying cost 8 454 7 956 -498 6
  • 7. Capital position Strong capitalisation – continued focus RWA development SEKbn 505 • Core Tier 1 ratio of 16.6 percent • RWA down SEK 9bn in quarter 500 - Volume increases +7.4 - Update SME portfolio -10.9 - Positive rating migration Sweden/Baltics 494.6 495 - Increased risk European banking system - Market risk reduced - Sale of ukrainian portfolio 490 -2.8 -2.9 485.4 485 0.0 480 2012 Q1 Volume Rating Other credit Market Operational 2012 Q2 (EAD) migration risk risk risk 7
  • 8. Liquidity and funding Continued conservative stance • Continued high issuance of long-term debt, SEK 41bn during Q2, total SEK 97bn during H1 • SEK 17bn in maturities for the remainder of 2012 • Funding plan of around SEK 120bn for full year • Awaiting new regulatory landscape of capital and funding Long-term debt issued SEKm Outstanding short-term debt SEKm 30 000 60 000 25 000 50 000 20 000 40 000 Q1 12 Q1 12 15 000 Q2 12 30 000 Q2 12 10 000 20 000 5 000 10 000 0 0 Domestic Euro CB USD CB Other CB Senior Domestic ECP/CD USCP Yankee CD French CD Finnish CD CB (144A) unsecured CP 8
  • 9. Group results Solid quarter SEKm Q1 12 Q2 12 Q/Q YTD • Stable NII Net interest income 5 208 5 252 +44 10 460 - Repricing lending Net commissions 2 405 2 346 -59 4 751 - Lower funding cost Net gains and losses 759 455 -304 1 214 - Shrinking deposit margins Other income 809 844 +35 1 653 Total income 9 181 8 897 -284 18 078 • Lower trading activity Total expenses 4 413 4 251 -162 8 664 Profit before impairments 4 768 4 646 -122 9 414 • Cost management on track Credit impairments 172 300 +128 472 • Credit impairments exit cost Impairment of tangible assets 40 125 +85 165 Ukraine Profit for the period 3 425 3 162 -263 6 587 • Capital position further strengthened ROE 14.0 13.0 13.5 C/I 0.48 0.48 0.48 CT1 ratio (Basel 2) 15.9 16.6 16.6 9
  • 10. Risk highlights Stable asset quality Credit impairments Q1 Q2 • Still high credit quality in Sweden (SEKm) Retail 24 100 • Further improvements in Baltics LC&I 14 54 – Provision releases for Latvian mortgages Baltic Banking -134 -204 Estonia -78 -25 • Exit costs Ukrainian retail portfolio Latvia -21 -197 – Sale of performing portfolio Lithuania -35 18 Group Functions & 268 350 Other Russia -65 24 Ukraine 333 325 Swedbank Group 172 300 10
  • 11. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Scenario – Deep recession without recovery Triggers Outcome • Europe enters into deep • Sharp GDP drop with no recession recovery (10-15% from 2011 level) • Limited possibilities for fiscal stimulus • Severe drop in house prices • European bank runs (25-37% from 2011 level) • Credit contraction • Depreciated EUR and appreciated SEK • Closed funding markets • Devaluation in Latvia and Lithuania 11
  • 12. ICAAP High capitalisation even in extremely stressed scenario • Revenue decrease 31 percent • Credit impairments SEK 64bn over 5 year • Scenario effects on Core Tier 1 ratio -165bp • Well above 12% Core Tier 1 ratio at low point even in extremely stressed scenario in new regulatory environment 12
  • 13. Credit portfolio – Retail Corporate Retail portfolio will drive capital efficiency Total portfolio SEK 227bn Segments excl. Swedbank Volume Secured Mortgage and Swedbank Finance (SEKbn) (%) Agriculture 6.3 81 Manufacturing 10.8 84 Swedbank Mortgage AB Public sector and utilities 4.8 90 90 Leasing (Swedbank Construction 4.6 86 113 Finance AB) Retail 9.2 88 Other 24 Transportation 2.0 82 Shipping 0.2 94 Hotels and restaurants 3.4 89 Information & communication 0.9 65 Finance and insurance 2.6 77 Property management 54.6 90 Professional service 6.6 75 Other 7.0 70 Total 113.0 86 13
  • 14. Q&A
  • 15. Appendix 15
  • 16. Mortgage loans, gross margin (3 months) % 6 5 Net margin 4 The gross margin should cover: 3 Cost of liquidity ~0.3% Administrative costs ~0.3% Credit impairments ~ 0.03% 2 Tax (26.3% on profit before tax) 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Gross margin Swedbank's funding cost Stibor 3 months Swedish Riksbanks reporate 16
  • 17. Large Corporates & Institutions Weaker trading activity in Q2 SEKm Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11* Q1 12 Q2 12 Net interest income 884 756 845 887 825 of which LC & FI** 444 519 563 652 666 of which Markets 440 237 282 235 159 Commission income 334 317 269 434 346 of which LC & FI* * 221 241 261 278 278 of which Markets 113 76 6 156 68 Total income LC&I 1 247 1 184 1 328 1 980 1 499 of which LC & FI** 682 770 832 946 947 of which Markets 565 414 496 1 034 552 Total expenses, excl 685 659 818 607 602 variable pay Variable staff costs 50 6 13 106 118 Profit before 512 519 497 1 267 779 impairments of which LC & FI** 481 567 574 735 740 of which Markets 31 -48 -77 532 39 Total impairments -20 -68 21 14 58 C/I ratio 0.59 0.56 0.63 0.36 0.48 * Excluding Lehman one-off ,**Large corporates and Financial institutions 17
  • 18. Cost management Cost target 2012 • Target to reduce underlying costs by SEK 1bn 2012 SEKbn 20 18.4 18 17.1 - 0.4 16.1 16 - 0.4 - 0.5 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Total expenses 2011 Variable staf f costs Restructuring costs Compensation to Underlying costs Cost target 2012 (af ter restatements) Savings Banks 2011 18
  • 19. Liquidity and funding Core balance sheet structure Assets Liabilities SEKbn SEKbn 2 000 2 000 1 800 Interbank loans 1 800 Amounts owed to credit and repos institutions 1 600 1 600 Other assets* Other liabilities** 1 400 1 400 Government guaranteed debt 1 200 1 200 Senior Estonia CEE lending 1 000 Other corporate 1 000 Covered lending, Sweden & bonds other Nordic coun. 800 800 Other private, Sweden 600 600 Swedish Deposits 400 mortgage loans 400 200 200 Suppl. cap Core T1 0 0 Q2 2012 Q2 2012 *Other assets: derivatives, C-bank holdings interest bearing **Other liabilities: derivatives, short-term funding and other financial liabilities securities and other financial assets Source: Swedbank, 30 June 2012 19
  • 20. Liquidity and funding Conservative liquidity levels • Short-term funding mainly a tool for cash management • More than 12 months pre-funded SEKbn 350 350 300 300 Additional pledgeable 250 and/or liquid assets 250 Next 12-month term funding maturities 200 200 1 Liquidity reserve, securities 150 CP / CDs and net 150 1 Liquidity reserve, interbank funding, 100 central bank deposits, SEKm 100 SEKm 50 50 0 0 Source: Swedbank 30 June 2012 1 As defined by the Swedish Bankers’ Association 20
  • 21. Liquidity and funding Long-term funding maturity profile • FY 2012 maturities amount to nominal SEK 86bn − of which SEK 17bn for the remainder of 2012 Long-term funding maturity profile SEKbn 200 Government guaranteed debt Senior unsecured 150 debt Covered bonds 100 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018- Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012 1 Maturing debt from 2018 and beyond is calculated as maturing in 2018 21
  • 22. Liquidity and funding Remaining government guaranteed debt • Exited the programme on 30 April 2010 • No issuance under the programme since summer 2009 • Remaining outstanding debt of SEK 36bn maturing during 2013 and 2014 Maturity profile as per Q2 2012 SEKbn 40 JPY CHF 20 USD SEK EUR 0 2013 2014 Source: Swedbank 30 June, 2012 22
  • 23. Liquidity and funding Senior unsecured debt strategy • Limited need given Swedbank’s balance sheet structure • Secure OC level • Affected by the bank’s liquidity needs House price sensitivity of the cover pool 35% 30% 25% OC 20% 15% Over-collateralisation 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% House price drop Source: Swedbank, 30 June, 2012, Nominal amounts 23
  • 24. Liquidity and funding Liquidity reserve According to the template defined by the Swedish Bankers' Association SEKm Cash and holdings in central banks 132 028 Deposits in other banks available overnight 270 Securities issued or guaranteed by sovereigns, central banks or multilateral development banks 22 265 Securities issued or guaranteed by municipalities or Public sector entities Covered bonds 56 577 - Issued by other institutions 56 577 - Own issued Securities issued by non-financial corporates Securities issued by financial corporates (excl. covered bonds) 2 846 Other Total1 214 382 Additional liquid assets, Group2 67 474 1 95% of the securities in the liquidity reserve per Q2 2012 are rated AAA 2 88% of the additional liquid assets fulfill the Liquidity Reserve definition by the Swedish Bankers’ Association except from that they are held outside the Treasury department. 24
  • 25. Swedish housing and mortgage market Swedish mortgage market • No securitization (on balance sheet) • No sub-prime market • No 3rd party origination • No buy-to-let market • 70% home ownership1 • Rental market is regulated – First hand contracts difficult to obtain – Rents need to be negotiated with the Swedish Union of Tenants • Transparent credit information (credit information agency, www.uc.se) – Publicly available information regarding income, debt, payment track record etc • Consumer credit legislation requires affordability calculations including stress test of higher interest rate • Very limited debt forgiveness possibilities (full recourse) • Strong social security and generous unemployment benefit system 1 Source: Boverket, 2011 25
  • 26. Swedish housing and mortgage market Real estate prices – Sweden 12 months development Single-family homes1 Tenant-owner rights2 Combined3 12M Δ 12M Δ 12M Δ Jul/11 0% 6% 2% Aug/11 -2% 3% -1% Sep/11 -3% 1% -2% Oct/11 -4% -1% -3% Nov/11 -5% -4% -5% Dec/11 -7% -4% -6% Jan/12 -4% -2% -4% Feb/12 -4% -1% -3% Mar/12 -4% 1% -3% Apr/12 -2% 2% -1% May/12 -2% 3% -1% Jun/12 -1% 4% 0% Source: Valuegard www.valuegard.se (Based on data from Mäklarstatistik), 1 HOXHOUSESWE, 2 HOXFLATSWE, 3 HOXSWE 26
  • 27. Baltic real estate prices Real estate prices – Baltic countries Tallinn Riga 1800 1 800 1600 1 600 1400 1 400 1200 1 200 1000 1 000 800 800 600 600 400 400 200 200 0 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Source: Swedbank, Estonian Land Board Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Source: Swedbank Nr.of deals EUR/m2 Vilnius 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Nr.of deals EUR/m2 27
  • 28. Asset quality Impaired loans decreasing • Decreased SEK 1.7bn • Continued progress in corporate loan restructuring SEK bn 45 2.4 40.3 40 35 Share of - 4.1 - 3.9 impaired 30 - 3.0 loans, gross - 1.1 -1.9 25 -3.9 20.4 20 -2.7 Ukraine 75% - 1.7 4.9 Russia 11% 15 0.6 41 Lithuania 12% 10 Latvia 17% 5.9 5 2.8 Estonia 5% 0.3 LC&I 0.12% 1.8 Retail 0.19% 0 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 12 28
  • 29. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 -100 20 EURm Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Asset quality Estonia Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Latvia Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Lithuania Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Ukraine Q4 11 Loans past due 60 days – performance Q/Q Q1 12 Q2 12 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Russia Q1 12 Q2 12 29
  • 30. Asset quality Provisions – well provided for SEKm 30 000 25 000 Provision ratios, % Q2 12 65.0% 63.7% Retail 79 20 000 60.0% 59.8% 61.5% 2 436 LC&I 155 2 409 15 000 15 952 Baltic Banking 56 14 782 2 435 2 478 12 821 2 040 Russia 60 10 000 11 915 10 951 Ukraine 74 Group 64 5 000 0 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Individual provisions Portf olio provisions Provision ratio 30
  • 31. Asset quality Credit impairments by business area, SEKm 300 172 -174 -324 -441 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Retail LC&I Baltic Banking Other (Russia/Ukraine) 31
  • 32. Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions Shipping and offshore + private equity • Lending exposure to shipping and offshore sector SEK Shipping and Offshore 25.5bn plus unutilised commitments of SEK 5.5bn Tanker 24% – Portfolio duration 4-5y – Average fleet age 7y – Other represents ro/ro (8%), container (4%), dry bulk Offshore 58% Other (4%), cruise (1%) 18% – Strong employment profiles Private equity portfolio Industrial • Private equity related exposure was SEK 18.6bn 31% Healthcare 36% – Nordic related LBOs – >99% senior lending – Largest sectors are healthcare (32%), industrial (27%) and service (19%) Other 33% 32
  • 33. Credit portfolio – Large Corporates & Institutions Shipping and offshore portfolio – exposure mainly in USD (79%), minor exposures in riskier segments Shipping and offshore portfolio by currency (in USDm) Shipping and offshore portfolio by subsegment SEK JPY Cruise 0% 1% 1% Container 5% RORO NOK 8% 13% Dry bulk 4% Drilling & exploration 22% EUR 7% Gas (LNG/LPG) 4% Crude oil 4% Oil service 9% Product 14% Supply USD 13% 79% Floating production Chemical 10% 2% Accommodation 4% 33
  • 34. Credit portfolio – Agriculture retail • Segmentation Definitions – Corporate Agriculture: Businesses that derive their main income from agricultural activities Private: – Private Investments: Private individuals who own Residential tagricultural properties for living or investment 20% purposes Agriculture • Lending exposure to the agriculture Industry 46% – Approx SEK 62bn per Q2 2012 – Corporate agriculture: (58%) Private: • Agriculture 46% Forestry 22% • Forestry 12% – Private investments (42%) • Residents: 20% Foresty • Forestry: 22% 12% 34
  • 35. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP dcenario – Deep recession without recovery 105 GDP - Index 105 Real Estate prices - index 100 95 95 85 90 75 85 65 80 55 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania 3.0% Interest rates – 3m 14 FX scenario 2.5% 12 10 2.0% 8 1.5% 6 1.0% 4 2 0.5% 0 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Euribor Stibor USD/SEK EUR/SEK GBP/SEK 35
  • 36. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Main scenario results SEK bn Net Interest Income • NII decreases by 39% throughout the 30 20.7 scenario 20 10 12.6 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 • Credit Impairments total SEK 64bn Credit impairments over the scenario period SEK bn 30 23.4 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -10 • RWA decreases due to significant SEKbn RWA incl. reg effects credit impairments and deleveraging 700 600 500 414 400 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 36
  • 37. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Income statement Total Income statement (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 Total net interest income 20.7 19.5 16.7 14.2 13.0 12.6 75.9 Total income 34.7 31.8 34.0 25.4 24.3 24.1 139.6 Total expenses 20.9 17.6 18.7 18.0 18.0 17.8 90.1 Profit before credit losses 13.8 14.2 15.3 7.4 6.3 6.2 49.5 Credit losses -1.8 8.2 23.4 17.4 9.3 5.4 63.6 Operating profit 15.5 6.1 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.9 -14.1 Appropriations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tax 3.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 Profit for the year 11.8 4.5 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.0 Minority interest 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Profit for the year attr to shareholders 11.5 4.4 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.6 -16.1 Dividend 5.8 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.5 Profit after tax, min. int. & dividend 5.7 2.2 -8.1 -10.0 -3.0 0.3 -18.6 37
  • 38. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP – Credit impairments EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio Credit impairments (%) (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 - 2016 Total 1,384.4 0.6 1.8 1.5 0.9 0.5 4.6 of which LC & I 309.8 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.6 5.4 Retail 950.8 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.3 3.2 Estonia 52.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.7 6.6 Latvia 30.6 2.7 6.1 5.6 4.4 4.6 15.0 Lithuania 31.1 2.4 4.1 3.0 2.4 2.2 9.5 Russia & Ukraine 9.6 5.2 20.9 10.5 3.7 1.6 41.9 The accumulated losses constitute SEK 63.6bn. Credit impairments in LC&I and Retail constitute 74% of total accumulated credit impairments Credit impairments LC & I and Retail EAD 2011 Acc. loss ratio (SEKbn) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (%) 2012 - 2016 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 25.8 0.5 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.7 Manufacturing 39.3 1.0 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 6.7 Public sector and utilities 11.6 0.6 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.4 5.3 Construction 15.1 1.2 3.4 3.4 1.9 0.4 8.5 Retail 22.8 1.3 4.6 5.4 4.0 2.4 14.0 Transportation 8.6 2.1 8.2 5.7 3.4 1.2 16.1 Shipping 31.2 0.4 8.5 6.2 0.6 0.5 14.4 Hotels and restaurants 3.8 2.7 6.3 6.3 3.7 0.7 15.0 Information and communication 5.0 0.6 1.7 1.9 1.0 0.5 4.9 Finance and insurance 20.4 0.3 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 2.8 Property management 125.1 0.9 3.9 3.8 2.0 1.0 9.6 Cooperative housing associations 75.4 0.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8 Other corporate lending 75.5 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 3.9 Professional services 14.9 1.0 2.7 3.2 2.1 0.7 8.0 Bank 128.2 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 3.9 Private 657.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.2 Total 1,260.5 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.4 3.7 38
  • 39. ICAAP 2012 ICAAP Main adverse scenario results Capital assessment RWA & Capital (SEKbn) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 RWA 492.3 489.5 504.1 433.9 395.2 365.0 RWA inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 565.3 552.2 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 RWA inc regulatory effects ** 588.1 575.0 557.1 482.4 442.6 414.4 Core Tier 1 77.3 79.7 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Core Tier 1 inc regulatory effects ** 73.6 76.0 62.1 52.4 49.5 49.8 Total Capital base 93.2 88.3 70.9 61.5 57.2 55.2 Capital assessment (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Core Tier 1 ratio 15.7 16.3 12.3 12.1 12.5 13.6 Core Tier 1 ratio inc 15% mortgage riskweight * 13.7 14.4 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Core Tier 1 ratio inc. regulatory effects ** 12.5 13.2 11.1 10.9 11.2 12.0 Total capital ratio inc. 15% mortgage riskweight * 16.5 16.0 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 * The effect of a 15% average riskweight on the Swedish Mortgage portfolio ** Includes assessed effects of Basel 3, IAS 19 and changed mortgage risk-weights 39