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B sullivan-hepf-leg-jan22
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- 2. 28% 27% Climate Change andEnergy Policy in HI 5 10 15 20 25 30 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 MMTCO2 State of Hawaii Climate Change Action Plan Nov ‘98 Act 234 June 2007 HCEI OCT 2008 100% by 2045 28% “These results point out the relatively low impact of Hawaii's people on climate change, but also emphasize the difficulty Hawaii faces in making significant reductions in its emissions. Jet fuel is essential to Hawaii's tourism-based economy and the wellbeing of its people.” “Climate change has the characteristics of a collective action problem at the global scale, because…emissions by any agent (e.g., individual, community, company, country) affect other agents” IPCC Synthesis Report 2014 28 % “1990 levels by 2020”
- 3. Key Climate PolicyQuestions 1. What do climate scientists tell us about the level of GHG reductions needed, and by when? 2. Do our emissions in Hawaii even matter? Or are we so small that we should just ‘do our own thing’ and focus our efforts on adaptation to climate impacts? 3. Should Climate Change Policy in Hawaii align with US/global Climate Change Policy? 4. If mitigation matters in Hawaii, should we revisit our GHG reduction goals for the State?
- 4. What level ofGHG reduction is needed? Figure 2.2 http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/topic_futurechanges.php#figure_2_2 RCP 2.6: Decarbonize adapted from http://ar5- syr.ipcc.ch/topic_pathways.php#table_3_1 RCP 8.6: BAU 430-480 PPM CO2 Eq concentrations 2100 >1000 PPM 41-72% decrease Change in CO2 Eq vs 2010 in 2050 52-95% increase 78-118% decrease Change in CO2 Eq vs 2010 in 2100 74-178% increase
- 5. Do Hawaii emissionseven matter?China EuropeanUnion India Russia Indonesia Brazil Mexico Japan Canada India Japan Mexico Brazil US 2nd largest per capita 20 TPY Hawaii per capita 16 TPY 1/3 of 1% of US total Canada Russia European Union Indonesia China World Average US2ndlargestoverall http://bit.ly/11SMpjA
- 6. Should HI ClimatePolicy align w/ US Policy? “Substantial global emission reductions are needed to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius, and the 2025 target is consistent with a path to deep decarbonization. This target is consistent with a straight line emission reduction pathway from 2020 to deep, economy-wide emission reductions of 80% or more by 2050. The target is part of a longer range, collective effort to transition to a low-carbon global economy as rapidly as possible.” from the United States INDC submission to the UNFCCC http://tinyurl.com/oop7jpd
- 7. Should HI revisitour GHG reduction goals? SC DE HI GA NC VA ME FL NJ WA OR MD CA RI NH CT MA NY DC 18.0 16.6 15.9 15.7 15.0 14.9 13.8 13.4 13.2 12.6 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.1 5.5 GHG emissions per capita (tons per person, 2012) excluding land use changes and forestry adapted from 18 5
- 8. GHG Goals inother places? From CNCA’s Framework for Long-Term Deep Carbon Reduction Planning
- 9. Implications for energypolicy today? Should we reset our GHG goals for Hawaii? Can we benefit from an aggressive clean energy goal in ground transportation? How can we continue to improve collaboration between State and County government? How do GHG goals and climate change relate to our most important industry?