Presentation from a Cary Institute of Ecosystems Studies public forum on climate change by Eban Goodstein, Director, Bard Center for Environmental Policy.

1. Climate Change:
Economic and Policy Implications
Eban Goodstein
Director, Bard Center for Environmental Policy

2. NYSERDA 2010
1. Policy Targets
2. Policy Measures
3. Economic Impacts:
Of Climate Change
Of Policy
Bard Center for Environmental Policy

3. The Path to 4 Degrees
Emissions: Cost:
IEA (2008) McKinsey (2008)

4. The Model For A Clean Energy Future
Source: Goodstein 2010

5. By 2040, The Greatest Generation will
transform the global economy

6. Policy Choices
• Mitigation
– Carbon Price: “Getting
the Prices Right”
– Policies: “Directly
Promoting Clean Energy”
(including efficiency)
• Adaptation
– New WRI/UN study just
out
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7. Current US Policy Framework
Next 5 Years: Reductions of 5-10%?
• International: • Regional: RGGI
– Dependent on Political – (Regional Greenhouse
Will to Impose National Gas Initiative- cap and
Policy trade system for NE
• US: electric utilities).
– Generates money for
– EPA Regulation Under efficiency investments.
the Clean Air Act – Could force emissions down:
– Vehicles– done. depends if cap is tightened
– Stationary Sources: Intense next year.
political pressure for
delay, but…
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8. Current NY Policy
Next 5 Years: Reductions of 5-10%?
• State: Leadership. • Localities:
– Energy Efficiency – Energy Efficiency
Funding (New On-Bill Implementation
Recovery Law) – Transit and Vehicles
– Renewable Portfolio – PACE financing?
Standard (30% by 2015)
– Solar Standard (2012?)
Bard Center for Environmental Policy

9. Economic Impacts: Climate Change
• “economic costs are likely to be • Local winners and losers: eg
tens of billions of dollars per year longer growing seasons versus
by the middle of this century.” more pests, shorter ski seasons,
although uncertainties are very sea-level rise
large. (NYSERDA 2010) • Global economic impact:
• “the largest costs will be environmental refugees as/if
associated with extreme events sunbelt desertifies; higher food
such as large scale floods and prices as crops are impacted
heat waves. Costs associated with globally.
average climate changes are • Lots of downside risk from
expected to increase more slowly especially bad outcomes: not
over time.” (NYSERDA 2010) much upside benefit from
especially good outcomes.
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10. Economic Impacts: Policy
1. Do it smart: low cost or 2. Energy independence =
profit. Jobs Producing Energy
– Example: On-Bill Locally
Recovery– Residents
typically see no net 3. Win the clean energy
increase in utility race = Jobs exporting
bills, and after the products and technology
investment is paid
off, they gain the
difference • Not much downside risk to
policy; lots of upside
benefit.
Bard Center for Environmental Policy

11. Politics
• National Level: • State Level:
– Energy Policy Stalemate – National stalemate
for the next 5 years. generally leads to
– At some point (2016?) a stronger state level
US policy framework will action.
emerge, either out of • Cycles:
the CAA, or via new – 2006-2009: Inconvenient
legislation. Truth
– Australia. – 2009-2011: Climategate
– 2012?
Bard Center for Environmental Policy