This document provides an overview of recent US trade data and issues, as well as perspectives on policies under a potential Biden administration. It summarizes July 2020 US merchandise trade statistics and top trading partners in 2019. It also discusses the ongoing US-China trade imbalance and effects of the Trump administration's policies. Biden's previous positions on trade agreements like TPP are outlined. Nearshoring of manufacturing jobs and recent indicators like PMI and FDI inflows are also addressed. Recommendations for US trade and economic policy going forward are provided.

1. Trade–UnitedStates
P a u l Yo u n g C PA C G A
O c t o b e r 7 , 2 0 2 0

2. PaulYoung-Bio
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3. Agenda
• Merchandise Trade – United States – July 2020
• Merchandise Trade – United States – July 2020 (Key Countries)
• Top Trading Partners / Countries (2019)
• Merchandise Trade deficit % of GDP
• USA and China (Trade)
• Biden and China
• Nearshoring / Manufacturing
• PMI Index / USA
• FDI / Inflow
• Union Membership

4. MerchandiseTrade–UnitedStates–July2020
Source - https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2020pr/07/ft920/index.html or https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html or
https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/us-international-trade-goods-and-services-august-2020

5. MerchandiseTrade–UnitedStates–August
2020
Source - https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/2020pr/07/ft920/index.html or
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html or https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/us-international-trade-
goods-and-services-august-2020

6. USATopTradingPartners
Source - https://www.bts.gov/top-trading-partners-united-states-merchandise-trade

7. MerchandiseTradeDeficit%ofGDP
S o u r c e - h t t p s : / / t r a d i n g e c o n o m i c s . c o m / u n i t e d - s t a t e s / m e r c h a n d i s e - t r a d e - p e r c e n t - o f - g d p - w b -
d a t a . h t m l

8. United States and China Trade
Source - https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277

9. JoeBidenandTrade
• Tr u m p N e w U S M C A - h tt p s : / / w w w.v ox . c o m / 2 0 1 8 / 1 0 / 3 / 1 7 9 3 0 0 9 2 / u s m c a - m e x i c o - n a f ta -
t r u m p - t ra d e - d e a l - e x p l a i n e d - O b a m a d i d l i tt l e t o f i xe d i s s u e s w i t h t h e o l d N A F TA
• U S A o i l s e c t o r h a s s t r u g g l e o v e r t h e y e a rs d u e t o c a p a c i t y a n d p r i c i n g i s s u e s -
h tt p s : / / w w w.fo r b e s . c o m /s i t e s / d a n e b e r h a r t / 2 0 2 0 / 0 8 / 1 4 / t r u m p - b oxe d - i n - b y - t i g h t - o i l -
m a r ke t - a h e a d - o f - e l e c t i o n / # 5 c 3 d 9 1 3 4 5 0 f 7 . Tr u m p w a s a b l e t o b ro ke r a p ro d u c t i o n c u t
b e t w e e n O P E C a n d R u s s i a . N e i t h e r O b a m a n o r Tr u m p c a n c l a i m t h e i r p o l i c i e s
s u p p o r t e d o i l p ro d u c t i o n - h tt p s : / / w w w. s p g l o b a l . c o m /e n / r e s e a r c h -
i n s i g h t s /a r t i c l e s /c a n - p r e s i d e n t - t r u m p - ta ke - c r e d i t - fo r - r e c o r d - u s - o i l - p ro d u c t i o n .
O b a m a s i g n e d a d e a l l a t e 2 0 1 5 t o a l l o w e x p o r t s o f o i l . T h e O b a m a d e a l w a s l a t e
O b a m a t e r m . W hy d i d O b a m a w a i t fo r n e a r l y 7 y e a rs ?
Source - https://www.cato.org/blog/what-would-trade-policy-look-under-president-joe-biden or
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-obama-biden-economy-redux-11597793116
• Biden backed TPP in the past - https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/biden-challenges-clinton-to-back-tpp-as-
obama-sends-it-to-congress
• Obama and Biden talked tough with China, but never got a deal done -
https://www.cnn.com/2012/02/17/election/2012/obama-boeing/index.html . Trump was able to get a fair-trade deal
done with China - https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/16/trump-new-china-trade-pact-takeaways/

10. Nearshoringofjobs
Source - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

11. PMIIndex/USA
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
• “The manufacturing upturn gained further ground in August, adding to indications that the third
quarter should see a strong rebound in production from the steep decline suffered in the second
quarter. Source - https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/09/01/markit-
manufacturing-up-in-july

12. FDI/USA
Source - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/foreign-direct-investment

13. UnionMembership
Source -
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/union2.nr0.htm

14. What’snext?
• United States will need to fixed their tax system - https://taxfoundation.org/publications/international-tax-
competitiveness-index/
• United States needs to investment properly in the skills trades -
https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20200218
• Revitalization on inter cities - https://www.forbes.com/sites/morgansimon/2019/03/30/what-you-need-to-know-
about-opportunity-zones/#43e3f45b6ae2
• More focus on fair-trade deals with countries - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-united-states-june-
2020
• More balanced between the environment and the economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-
technology-the-green-economy
• Transforming of government - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-management-cycle-public-sector-
united-states
• Key infrastructure investments - https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-infrastructure/our-
insights/reimagining-infrastructure-in-the-united-states-how-to-build-better#
• Keep looking at ways to streamline regulations, encouraging innovation, investment in automation and other
policies related to productivity - https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/competitiveness-rank

15. TrainingandDevelopment
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