Predicting future technology is hard, but thanks to demographics and surveys, predicting future audiences is actually fairly easy. Understanding future audiences gives insights into future workers and the future of our professional society.
Presentation given by Steven Jong at InterChange 2014, the regional conference of the New England Chapter of the Society for Technical Communication, Lowell, Massachusetts, USA, 29 March 2014.
[Re-uploaded 4/21 as a PPTX with presenter notes--sfj]
6. Disclaimers
• These are broad
characterizations with many
exceptions
• Predictions are prone to
disruption
• US only
• Census data is aligned to years
ending in 0, so I’ll interpolate
• I’m a (Baby) Boomer
• I’ll use neutral generation names
• I’ll try to avoid judgments and
politics
• I’ll label my own predictions
7. Demographic Analysis: Population Pyramid
http://fathersforlife.org/population_politics/world_population_pyramids_selected_countries.htm
17. “GI” Generation
• “Civic”
• Born: 1901–1924 (now 90–113)
• Not in audience or workforce
• Influences: Great Depression,
FDR, Pearl Harbor, “American
Dream”
• Attitudes: Optimism, trust in
authority and government,
conformity
• Work style: command and
control
18. “Silent” Generation
• “Adaptive”
• Born: 1925–1942 (now 72–89)
• Audience, not workforce
• Influences: Great Depression,
WWII (as observers)
• Attitudes: Children should be
seen and not heard;
conservative, conformity,
sacrifice
• Work style: well-crafted memos
21. “Gen X” Generation
• “Reactive”
• Born: 1965–1980 (now 34–49)
• Audience, workforce (manager
class)
• Influences: video
games, Challenger disaster, end
of Cold War, Gulf War I
• Attitudes: self-
reliant, entrepreneurial;
mistrustful of government;
anxious about jobs
• Work style: hands off
23. “Homeland” Generation
• “Adaptive”
• Born: 2001–? (Now 0–13)
• Not yet in audience or workforce
• Influences: War on Terror, Web,
“Great Recession”
• Attitudes: always connected,
always sharing, expects instant
gratification
• Work style: digital from birth
24. “Digital from birth” in action
We won't get paid to document today's interfaces much longer...
26. Society for Technical
Communication (2014)
• 25% of peak membership
• Led and dominated by (US)
Boomers, now retiring
• Neither Boomers nor Gen Xers
are prone to joining
organizations
• Dues are an issue
• Divesting non-writers (UX,
technical artists)
30. Persona (2024)
Caitlin Smith-Garcia, 32
Cybrarian
Analyzes massive data sets for market research
and new-product development
BS, Information Science, Michigan
“I get paid to answer complex questions, so I
need to know how to form the right queries.
There are so many nuances, it's hard to know
them all.
“I use my smart glasses all the time. I shop, I text
my friends all the time at work, I learn with them. I
spend maybe an hour a day reading. But I’m not
really used to writing anything down.
“I don’t need to know things; I need to find out
how to do things. Outside of work I don't want to
hunt. Just get to the point and tell me what I need
to do. Give me real-world examples and case
studies, and tell me and how long it will take.”
31. Practitioners (2024)
• Technical writing is rare; technical
communication is common
• Gen Xers are very secure in their jobs;
Millennials change jobs frequently
• Conflict between Gen X managers (hands-
off style) and Millennials worker (who want
close supervision, clear directions, and
constant feedback)
• Conflict over onshore vs. offshore
• Over half of all US workers telecommute at
least sometimes; corporate devices are rare
• Workers are independent, and committing to
one company is now unusual
• Millennial workers are uncomfortable with
workplace or face-to-face communication
“Are you listening to us?”
32. Society for Technical
Communication (2024)
• Information, and competition, is
everywhere
• Retired members are very
important
• Two-way mentoring
• Younger members crave
institutions and social contact,
actively volunteer
• Fundraising appeals and
crowdfunding options are now
viable
34. Persona (2039)
Jacob Neuworth, 36
Genetic engineer, World Wildlife Federation
Recovering extinct species
Ph.D, MIT
“Working with experts in the US, China, and Vietnam, I
am bringing back the Yangtze River dolphin, extinct for
over 30 years.
“I’ve curated over 25,000 professional links. I love to
read, and I also own several autographed books! Of
course, today books and other fixed media are
obsolete. And I don’t actually like to navigate through
them—they’re just static words and pictures.
“I haven't needed a keyboard in years, and I don't miss
them. So frustrating! A friend sent me a fancy wedding
invitation, but I can’t read cursive. Can’t write it, either.
I can print, but why? It just cramps my hands. I need to
write, not make letters.
“I get impatient sitting down and studying. Give me a
summary so I can get started immediately. I want to
know what I need to do, whether I’m making
progress, and when I’m done, so I don’t get stuck.”
http://www.edgeofexistence.org/edgeblog/?p=777
35. Practitioners (2039)
• “Writing” in the sense that a written
screenplay becomes a movie
• No career ladder, but rotating through
roles on goal-directed teams
• Lifespans are longer, and most jobs
involve no commuting or physical
labor, so working past 65 is common
• The new UI is voice, and the new
writing skill is dictation
• Physical, communications skills gaps
• AI creates all routine documents
• Direct mental interface possible, but
not practical
http://photo.elsoar.com/handsome-businessmen-
using-touchpad-16-hd_photos.html
37. Society for Technical and Web
Communication (2039)
• STC is transformed or replaced
• Members are Millennials and
Homelanders
• Human interactions very
important; chapters in every
major city support F2F
interaction
• Filling in skills gaps
• Curation of information
39. Persona (2053)
Jackson Huygens, 29
Carbon sequestration engineer, Exxon-Halliburton
Building nucear-powered sequestration plants that
convert atmospheric CO2 into dikes
Self-trained
“I’m proud to be part of the largest construction
project in human history. While colonists are
teraforming Mars, we’re teraforming Earth! I’m
protecting our cities while making a better world for
my children.
“Memorizing facts is antiquated—everything’s in the
system. But I share my skills and expertise with
colleagues everywhere, so we can all be more
effective.
“My folks struggle to connect with the system, and
sometimes my boss does too. I don’t say anything
when he has to point, because to be honest,
sometimes I have to work at it myself!
“I’ve always loved learning better hacks. But 90% of
everything is crap; you have to wade through a lot to
find something really useful.”
http://m.wisegeek.com/what-does-a-construction-site-
manager-do.htm#men-in-hard-hats-at-job-site
40. Practitioners (2053)
• Strong workplace conflict between
Millennials and “Jetsons”
• Many work past 70
• Clarity of expression is still important
• Fully global teams, rarely meeting, use
real-time translation to converse live
• Cult of professional expertise: everyone
has niche skills, portable credentials
• Most content is visual
• Likes chain of command, peer leaders,
continual feedback
• Major technologies are digital, energy,
environmental, biomedical, space,
learning to use direct mental interfaces
43. General Sources
• US Census Bureau, www.census.gov
• Generations: The History of America’s Future, 1584 to 2069. William Strauss and Neil
Howell. New York: Harper Perennial, 1991
• The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant
Technologies. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee. New York: W. W. Norton &
Company, 2014
• “Meet the Generations,” extension.missouri.edu/extcouncil/documents/ecyl/Meet-the-
generations.pdf
• “The Power of 4.” Paul Olson and Hannah Brescher. Adayana, 2011,
www.adayana.com/sites/default/files/docs/whitepapers/The%20Four%20Generations
%202011-03_2.pdf
• Mixing and Matching Four generations,” Greg Hammill, FDU Magazine Online,
Winter/Spring 2005, www.fdu.edu/newspubs/magazine/05ws/generations.htm
44. Boomers
• “If We Work Into Our 70s, What Happens in the Workplace?” Jeanne
Meister, Forbes, 2012-06-26 (retrieved 2014-02-
27), www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/06/26/if-we-work-into-our-70s-
what-happens-in-the-workplace
• “An overview of economic, social, and demographic trends affecting the US labor
market,” Robert I. Lerman and Stefanie R. Schmidt, The Urban
Institute, Washington, DC, www.dol.gov/oasam/programs/history/herman/reports/
futurework/conference/trends/TrendsIV.htm
• “Responding to the Challenge of a Changing Workforce: Recruiting
Nontraditional Demographic Groups,” Dennis Doverspike, Ph.D., Mary Anne
Taylor, Ph.D., Kenneth S. Schultz, Ph.D., Patrick F. McKay, Ph.D. Public
Personnel Management, Vol. 29, No. 4, pp. 445–459
• “The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States,” March 31, 2011, Laura
B. Shrestha, Elayne J. Heisler, Congressional Research Service
45. Generation X
“Transitioning to Workforce 2020,” Cisco Systems white
paper, 2011, www.cisco.com/web/learning/employer_resour
ces/pdfs/Workforce_2020_White_Paper.pdf
46. Millennials
• “Millennials: A Portrait of Generation Next.” Pew Research Center, February
2010, pewsocialtrends.org/files/2010/10/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-
change.pdf
• “Big demands and high expectations: The Deloitte Millennial Survey,” January
2014, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Ltd., www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/About-Deloitte/gx-
dttl-2014-millennial-survey-report.pdf
• The Mindset List (Beloit College), www.beloit.edu/mindset/
• “Learning Curve: How College Graduates Solve Information Problems Once They Join
the Workplace.” Alison J. Head, Project Information Literacy, October
2012, journalistsresource.org/studies/society/education/how-college-graduates-solve-
information-problems-join-workplace#sthash.I1r8BddP.dpuf
• “Three Reasons You Need to Adopt a Millennial Mindset Regardless of Your Age,”
Jeanne Meister, Forbes, 2012-10-05 (retrieved 2014-02-
27), www.forbes.com/sites/jeannemeister/2012/10/05/millennialmindse/
47. Homelanders
• “Gen Z: Digital in their DNA.” April 2012, JWT
Intelligence, www.jwtintelligence.com/wp-
content/uploads/2012/04/F_INTERNAL_Gen_Z_0418122.pdf
• “Consumers of Tomorrow: Insights and Observations About Generation Z.”
Grail Research, November
2011, www.grailresearch.com/pdf/ContenPodsPdf/Consumers_of_Tomorrow
_Insights_and_Observations_About_Generation_Z.pdf
• “How Generation Z Works,” Lance Looper, HowStuffWorks.com (retrieved
2014-02-27), people.howstuffworks.com/culture-traditions/generation-
gaps/generation-z.htm
• “The Complete Visual Guide to Generation Z,” Katie Lepi, 2013-11-15
(retrieved 2014-02-27), www.edudemic.com/generation-z/